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International project appraisal – part 2
Appendix 1 – NPV and Workings
Description
Time 0
€m
Time 1
€m
Time 2
€m
Time 3
€m
Time 4
€m
Time 5
€m
Time 6
€m
Revenue
(W1) _____
313.50
_____
368.23
_____
636.01
_____
486.81
_____
389.99
_____ _____
Variable cost
(W2)
131.10 156.98 276.40 215.67 176.13
Incremental
fixed costs
40.00 42.40 44.94 47.64 50.50
Royalty
(W3)
63.44 68.72 109.48 77.29 57.11
TAD (250/5)
50.00
_____
50.00
_____
50.00
_____
50.00
_____
50.00
_____
Total costs
_____
284.54
_____
318.10
_____
480.82
_____
390.60
_____
333.73
_____ _____
Taxable cash
flows
28.96 50.13 155.19 96.21 56.25
Taxation
@ 20%
(5.79) (10.03) (31.04) (19.24) (11.25)
Add:
TAD
50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Initial
investment
(1000.00)
Scrap
proceeds
500.00
Working
capital
(31.35)
______
(5.47)
_____
(26.78)
______
14.92
_____
9.68
______
39.00
______ ______
€m (1031.35) 73.49 67.56 210.08 124.86 626.01 (11.25)
Spot rate
(W4) €/$
0.7810 0.7420 0.7049 0.6696 0.6361 0.6043 0.5741
$m $m $m $m $m $m $m
Remitted
amounts
(1320.55) 99.05 95.84 313.74 196.28 1035.89 (19.60)
Royalty
income (W3)
85.50 97.50 163.50 121.50 94.50
Taxation
on royalty
Income
@ 25%
(21.38) (24.38) (40.88) (30.38) (23.63)
Additional
tax on €
Taxable
profits
(W5) _______
(1.95)
_____
(3.56)
_____
(11.59)
______
(7.56)
_____
(4.65)
______ ______
Free cash
flows
(1320.55) 161.22 165.41 424.78 279.84 1102.11 (19.60)
Cost of
capital (10%)
1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564
________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______
Present
values ($m)
(1320.55)
________
146.55
______
136.63
______
319.01
______
191.13
______
684.41
______
(11.05)
______
Net present
value ($m) +146.13
(W1) Revenue Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5
Metres 5,700 6,500 10,900 8,100 6,300
Price (€)
55,000
______
56,650
______
58,350
______
60,100
_____
61,903
______
€m
313.50
______
368.23
______
636.01
______
486.81
_____
389.99
______
(W2) Variable cost Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5
Unit cost 23,000
______
24,150
______
25,358
______
26,625
_____
27,957
______
Metres x unit cost
(€m)
131.10
______
156.98
______
276.40
______
215.67
_____
176.13
______
(W3) Royalty Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5
Metres x $15,000
($m)
$85.50 $97.50 $163.50 $121.50 $94.50
Spot rate
(€/$) – (W4)
€0.7420
______
€0.7049
______
€0.6696
______
€0.6361
______
€0.6043
______
€m
63.44
______
68.72
______
109.48
______
77.29
_____
57.11
______
(W4) Spot rates
Time
0
Time
1
Time
2
Time
3
Time
4
Time
5
Time
6
Spot
rate
(€/$)
€0.7810
€0.7420
€0.7049 €0.6696 €0.6361 €0.6043 €0.5741
(W5) Additional taxation Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5
€m €m €m €m €m
Taxable profit 28.96 50.13 155.19 96.21 56.25
(25–20)% x
Taxable Profit
(1.45) (2.51) (7.76) (4.81) (2.81)
Spot Rate (€/$) – W4
€0.7420
______
€0.7049
______
€0.6696
______
€0.6361
______
€0.6043
______
$m
(1.95)
______
(3.56)
______
(11.59)
______
(7.56)
______
(4.65)
______
To: BoD of Penn Co
From: xxxxxx
Subject: Nurukian Train Line Project
Date: xx-xx-xx
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Financial assessment
I have prepared a forecast of the nominal free cash flows for the Nurukian train
line project in Appendix (1). After discounting these at the Penn Co’s current cost
of capital (10%), the project increases shareholder wealth by just under $150m.
Based on this value, the company should accept this project.
All forecasts are subject to estimation errors. This should be taken into account
when the BoD arrives at its final decision.
Assumptions
There are a number of assumptions that have been made when computing the
NPV. Some of these are considered below:
• Inflation – specific inflation rates have been incorporated into the appraisal
and are expected to remain constant for the five-year period.
• Taxation – the current tax rates and allowances used to arrive at the
taxation cash flows may vary over the life of the project.
• Scrap proceeds – the Nuruk government have guaranteed to purchase the
machinery for a value of €500m. This may be subject to the condition of
the machine as there will be wear and tear.
• Exchange rates – future spot rates are affected by many factors and,
hence, the values used in the assessment may be incorrect.
• Finance – the project requires €1,000m ($1280m) initial finance. It has
been assumed that this will be raised in the Ayjain financial markets. This
is a large value relative to the company’s current entity value. The project
may be too big for Penn Co to undertake.
Sensitivity analysis should be carried out to identify how changes in key variables
affect the NPV.
International project appraisal   part 2 webinar doc
International project appraisal   part 2 webinar doc
International project appraisal   part 2 webinar doc
International project appraisal   part 2 webinar doc
International project appraisal   part 2 webinar doc

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International project appraisal part 2 webinar doc

  • 1. International project appraisal – part 2 Appendix 1 – NPV and Workings Description Time 0 €m Time 1 €m Time 2 €m Time 3 €m Time 4 €m Time 5 €m Time 6 €m Revenue (W1) _____ 313.50 _____ 368.23 _____ 636.01 _____ 486.81 _____ 389.99 _____ _____ Variable cost (W2) 131.10 156.98 276.40 215.67 176.13 Incremental fixed costs 40.00 42.40 44.94 47.64 50.50 Royalty (W3) 63.44 68.72 109.48 77.29 57.11 TAD (250/5) 50.00 _____ 50.00 _____ 50.00 _____ 50.00 _____ 50.00 _____ Total costs _____ 284.54 _____ 318.10 _____ 480.82 _____ 390.60 _____ 333.73 _____ _____ Taxable cash flows 28.96 50.13 155.19 96.21 56.25 Taxation @ 20% (5.79) (10.03) (31.04) (19.24) (11.25) Add: TAD 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 Initial investment (1000.00) Scrap proceeds 500.00 Working capital (31.35) ______ (5.47) _____ (26.78) ______ 14.92 _____ 9.68 ______ 39.00 ______ ______ €m (1031.35) 73.49 67.56 210.08 124.86 626.01 (11.25) Spot rate (W4) €/$ 0.7810 0.7420 0.7049 0.6696 0.6361 0.6043 0.5741 $m $m $m $m $m $m $m
  • 2. Remitted amounts (1320.55) 99.05 95.84 313.74 196.28 1035.89 (19.60) Royalty income (W3) 85.50 97.50 163.50 121.50 94.50 Taxation on royalty Income @ 25% (21.38) (24.38) (40.88) (30.38) (23.63) Additional tax on € Taxable profits (W5) _______ (1.95) _____ (3.56) _____ (11.59) ______ (7.56) _____ (4.65) ______ ______ Free cash flows (1320.55) 161.22 165.41 424.78 279.84 1102.11 (19.60) Cost of capital (10%) 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 ________ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ ______ Present values ($m) (1320.55) ________ 146.55 ______ 136.63 ______ 319.01 ______ 191.13 ______ 684.41 ______ (11.05) ______ Net present value ($m) +146.13 (W1) Revenue Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5 Metres 5,700 6,500 10,900 8,100 6,300 Price (€) 55,000 ______ 56,650 ______ 58,350 ______ 60,100 _____ 61,903 ______ €m 313.50 ______ 368.23 ______ 636.01 ______ 486.81 _____ 389.99 ______ (W2) Variable cost Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5 Unit cost 23,000 ______ 24,150 ______ 25,358 ______ 26,625 _____ 27,957 ______ Metres x unit cost (€m) 131.10 ______ 156.98 ______ 276.40 ______ 215.67 _____ 176.13 ______
  • 3. (W3) Royalty Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5 Metres x $15,000 ($m) $85.50 $97.50 $163.50 $121.50 $94.50 Spot rate (€/$) – (W4) €0.7420 ______ €0.7049 ______ €0.6696 ______ €0.6361 ______ €0.6043 ______ €m 63.44 ______ 68.72 ______ 109.48 ______ 77.29 _____ 57.11 ______ (W4) Spot rates Time 0 Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5 Time 6 Spot rate (€/$) €0.7810 €0.7420 €0.7049 €0.6696 €0.6361 €0.6043 €0.5741 (W5) Additional taxation Time 1 Time 2 Time 3 Time 4 Time 5 €m €m €m €m €m Taxable profit 28.96 50.13 155.19 96.21 56.25 (25–20)% x Taxable Profit (1.45) (2.51) (7.76) (4.81) (2.81) Spot Rate (€/$) – W4 €0.7420 ______ €0.7049 ______ €0.6696 ______ €0.6361 ______ €0.6043 ______ $m (1.95) ______ (3.56) ______ (11.59) ______ (7.56) ______ (4.65) ______
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  • 6. To: BoD of Penn Co From: xxxxxx Subject: Nurukian Train Line Project Date: xx-xx-xx ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Financial assessment I have prepared a forecast of the nominal free cash flows for the Nurukian train line project in Appendix (1). After discounting these at the Penn Co’s current cost of capital (10%), the project increases shareholder wealth by just under $150m. Based on this value, the company should accept this project. All forecasts are subject to estimation errors. This should be taken into account when the BoD arrives at its final decision. Assumptions There are a number of assumptions that have been made when computing the NPV. Some of these are considered below: • Inflation – specific inflation rates have been incorporated into the appraisal and are expected to remain constant for the five-year period. • Taxation – the current tax rates and allowances used to arrive at the taxation cash flows may vary over the life of the project. • Scrap proceeds – the Nuruk government have guaranteed to purchase the machinery for a value of €500m. This may be subject to the condition of the machine as there will be wear and tear. • Exchange rates – future spot rates are affected by many factors and, hence, the values used in the assessment may be incorrect. • Finance – the project requires €1,000m ($1280m) initial finance. It has been assumed that this will be raised in the Ayjain financial markets. This is a large value relative to the company’s current entity value. The project may be too big for Penn Co to undertake. Sensitivity analysis should be carried out to identify how changes in key variables affect the NPV.