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Infoshare 2021 - Tomasz Swieboda
- 1. How to maximise your startup valuation? Tomasz Swieboda
- 2. Instagram Sells For $1 Billion, Despite No Revenue 2012
- 3. Do you know why valuation multiples are so different? ~ 32x ~ 44x ~ 6x ~ 6x ~ 4x Valuation/Revenue [x] ~ 79x
- 4. 16x EBITDA
- 5. Valuation Estimated revenue in 2022 $400M $4M It makes sense
- 6. “Those Who Dance Are Considered Insane by Those Who Can’t Hear the Music.” Friedrich Nietzsche
- 7. M E T E R
- 10. Surfing = Wave + Surfer + Board + Surfer + Board
- 11. Total UK population Number of GP visits per year Average consumption per GP visit in £ Total market size What is the market for medical consumables used by GPs/doctors in the UK? x 63 M Age bands <5 5-19 20-49 50-74 75+ 4M 11M 26M 17M 5M # of visits per year, age band 6.9 2.7 4.3 7.1 12.4 £0.34 £120M Source: L.E.K. analysis. YouTube x =
- 12. Number of GPs and practice nurses Average working hours per annum Number of consultations per hour Total market size Average consumption per consultation in £ Source: L.E.K. analysis. YouTube X X X = What is the market for medical consumables used by GPs/doctors in the UK?
- 13. Global advertising market $580B Global online advertising market Facebook revenue in 2020 14% $290B 29% $84B Example
- 14. Let’s talk about the grocery market
- 15. Global advertising market $580B Global grocery market $11 700B 20x more
- 18. 400 shopping malls in Poland 8B people = x 3 docs x _ 10 x 1 €5 €12B
- 19. How does the market influence valuation? Market size (in $M) Market leader sales (in $M) Market leader EBITDA (in $M) Valuation (in $M) Probability Value today (in $M) 10 000 2 000 800 12 800 1% 128 1 000 200 80 1 280 1% 12.8
- 21. “Front has a great user experience! It is extremely efficient, reliable, and easy to navigate.” Bellhops, 1000 seats Baroo, 20 seats “Wouldn’t go back to Gmail if you paid me.” Customers love 10x products “I’m in love with Front!.” Guillermo Rauch, this week-end
- 22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jan 100% 103% 106% 109% 112% 115% 118% 121% 124% Feb 100% 103% 105% 103% 112% 115% 118% 122% March 100% 90% 106% 108% 114% 122% 120% April 100% 108% 116% 124% 132% 140% May 100% 102% 105% 107% 110% Very good cohorts
- 23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jan 100% 92% 85% 77% 70% 62% 55% 47% 40% Feb 100% 92% 86% 78% 71% 64% 57% 50% March 100% 92% 85% 76% 69% 61% 54% April 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% May 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Bad cohorts
- 24. Smiling cohorts
- 25. Churn - underappreciated percentage MRR Churn Expected Revenue from Current Base 10 000 1% 1 000 000 10 000 2% 500 000 10 000 3% 333 333 10 000 4% 250 000 10 000 5% 200 000
- 29. How fast do I need to grow?
- 30. Mendoza Line
- 31. Good Years to $100M ARR Better Best 10 Years 7 Years 5 Years
- 33. Multiple on ARR Year on year growth +50% x2 x2.5 x3 x4 Churn Adjustment to multiple 0.5 1 1.3 1.5 1.8 5% 0.3 1x 2x 2.5x 3x 3.5x 4% 0.5 1.7x 3.3x 4.2x 5x 5.8x 3% 0.75 2.5x 5x 6.25x 7.5x 8.75x 3% 1 3.3x 6.7x 8.3x 10x 11.7x 1% 1.5 5x 10x 12.5x 15x 17.5x 0 or negative 2 6.7x 13.3x 16.7x 20x 23.3x How growth & retention influence valuation?
- 34. Multiple on ARR Year on year growth +50% x2 x2.5 x3 x4 Churn Adjustment to multiple 0.5 1 1.3 1.5 1.8 5% 0.3 1x 2x 2.5x 3x 3.5x 4% 0.5 1.7x 3.3x 4.2x 5x 5.8x 3% 0.75 2.5x 5x 6.25x 7.5x 8.75x 3% 1 3.3x 6.7x 8.3x 10x 11.7x 1% 1.5 5x 10x 12.5x 15x 17.5x 0 or negative 2 6.7x 13.3x 16.7x 20x 23x
- 36. PIMP MY STARTUP
- 37. Speed up! Positive retention Attack a larger market How to increase your valuation?
- 39. Watch Tomasz Swieboda’s presentation on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFXsTVixWG4