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September 26, 2014 
Information Technology 
FPP v/s T&M: A qualitative assessment of two billing models 
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Sector Update 
Shashi Bhusan 
shashibhusan@plindia.com 
+91‐22‐66322300 
Hussain Kagzi 
hussainkagzi@plindia.com 
+91‐22‐66322242 
Sensex v/s CNX IT 
90 
Sep‐13 
Nov‐13 
Jan‐14 
Mar‐14 
May‐14 
Jul‐14 
Sep‐14 
CNX IT Sensex 
Source: Bloomberg 
Stock Performance 
(%) 1M 6M 12M 
Sensex 0.1 19.8 33.0 
CNX IT Index 4.8 21.3 37.1 
HCL Tech. 7.2 23.5 63.9 
Infosys 2.0 13.8 22.6 
TCS 6.9 31.0 41.7 
Wipro 5.8 6.9 22.1 
The creeping transition of Indian IT companies to Fixed Price Projects (FPP) from 
Time & Material (T&M) to mitigate the pricing pressure was evident over the last 
half‐a‐decade. We have tried to qualitatively assess the pros & cons of these two 
billing models. Our assessment indicated the maturity of commoditized business 
which has resulted in migration towards FPP, whereas T&M is handy for Greenfield 
projects. We don’t see any inherent advantage for either of these models. 
However, different stages of business cycles and process maturities will promote 
different billing models. 
 T&M v/s FPP – Consulting v/s Engineering: IT Services originates from 
Consulting business; hence, T&M became the de‐facto choice of billing. Our 
analysis indicates no inherent advantage of one over the other and Indian IT 
companies are likely to stay amicable with both the billing models. 
 FPP is a reflection of process maturity...: There are few myths around the FPP 
like T&M protects eventuality in cost overruns, need stronger control processes 
for FPP, vendors can pad‐up their bids to escape uncertainty and risk is bad. We 
believe Indian IT companies over the last two decades have got the most 
evolved processes for IT Services; hence, they can see creeping migration to FPP. 
 ... but, T&M handy for Greenfield projects: T&M model is convenient for 
projects marred with uncertainties. Need for flexibility for uncertainties 
associated with a project and transparency of the process drives the existence of 
T&M model. We see the contribution of discretionary (App Development, 
Greenfield PI, SMAC etc.) to drive the sustained T&M. 
 Pricing pressure on traditional services – An inevitable waited to happen: The 
great financial crisis (2008) changed the spending pattern of the corporate when 
clients wanted to do more with less. Hence, the commoditized services 
witnessed pricing pressure. Indian IT adapted to the changing need and offered 
FPP as a solution that can give them manoeuvrability on the costing front. 
 TCS has the slowest growth in FPP, Wipro & HCL Tech have the fastest growth 
in FPP contribution: TCS’ FPP contribution has been relatively flattish over the 
last five years, whereas Wipro and HCL Tech have witnessed maximum increase. 
We see improved process maturity and productivity gain for TCS, whereas, HCL 
Tech reaped the benefit of continued migration of FPP. 
 Valuation & Recommendation – Prefers TCS, INFO & WPRO: There is no 
winning billing model. Challenging macro pushes for cost cognizance. Hence, FPP 
offers a solution for matured services, whereas, the conducive environment 
implies a green‐field development project that may push for T&M model. We 
see a quick transition to FPP translating into margin gains having risk of mean 
reversal in renegotiation. We continue to see similar risk for HCL Tech. 
However, TCS, Infosys and Wipro still have unexplored opportunities. 
Exhibit 1: Top picks – TCS, Infosys and Wipro 
Revenues (Rs m) EPS (Rs) 
CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Rating Upside EPS CAGR 
2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E 
Infosys 538,365 606,727 213.7 238.2 3,691 4,040 BUY 9.5% 13.1% 
TCS 963,409 1,135,703 113.9 131.2 2,709 2,900 BUY 7.1% 15.7% 
Wipro 488,922 545,933 36.0 41.8 583 680 BUY 16.7% 14.6% 
HCL Technologies 373,127 422,588 107.8 119.3 1,708 1,750 Accumulate 2.4% 13.9% 
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research (All prices as on September 25, 2014)
Information Technology 
Pricing Models ‐ Time & Material v/s Fixed Price: Stem from their 
evolution to Consulting v/s Engineering 
Emergence of IT Services from high cost IT infrastructure in the 1960‐70s, wherein 
the clients used to rent the infrastructure, resulted in a consulting‐led approach for 
pricing i.e. T&M. However, FPP evolution stems their root from Engineering Floor, 
wherein, the process efficiency, adaptability and productivity gain holds the key. 
Prima facie, there is no inherent advantage of one type of billing over the other. 
Open discussions between the clients and consultant can allow both types of billing 
to go forward amicably. Consultants with little experience in billing clients directly 
are usually better off billing time‐and‐materials until they have learnt how to quote a 
fixed price. However, in the future, they can select the model that works best and 
most profitably. Clients decide tradeoff between certainty and the prospect of a 
lower bill when the work can be completed efficiently then choose the model that 
suits them best. 
Time‐and‐Materials: IT professionals are billed by the hour with expenses. They are 
assured of being paid for their time, regardless of how long the project takes or for 
an ongoing project. Client has the freedom to change the specifications of the 
project or to add new components, as it is understood that such changes will incur 
more time on the project and hence, a higher invoice. The disadvantages come when 
the consultant bills too many hours and exceeds the client's budget. This can cause 
friction between the two if the budget runs out before the contract is completed. 
Fixed Price Project: A fixed price contract is ideal when the client requires work that 
can be provided with a quick turnaround built/implemented/maintained from pre‐existing 
templates, where much of the work may have already been completed (in 
terms of requirement gathering) prior to landing the contract. Likewise, a client‐vendor 
may prefer a fixed price contract because it is easier to set a budget for such 
projects. However, a fixed price contract can be an issue when the consultant and 
client do not come to a detailed agreement on what the work will include. 
Exhibit 2: Is FPP actually a high risk for IT Services providers? 
Buyer 
Low Risk High Risk 
FPP T&M Cost Plus 
Provider 
High Risk Low Risk 
Source: PL Research 
September 26, 2014 2
Information Technology 
Exhibit 3: Parameters comparison – The business model 
Time & Material (T&M) Fixed Price (FP) 
Flexibility to balance team size and workloads Requirement & Project due dates clear 
Optimising the cost and time lines Control the project budget 
Project model tailored to clients’ requirement Planning, schedule & deliverable clear 
Increase or decrease the pricing and resources Based on active and mutual consent 
Source: PL Research 
Exhibit 4: T&M: Profitability stabilizes as project reaches steady‐state 
US$ 
Revenue Cost Profit 
Time 
Source: PL Research 
Exhibit 5: FPP: A steady improvement in profitability during tenure 
US$ 
Revenue Cost Profit 
Time 
Source: PL Research 
FPP – How it scores over T&M? Busting myths! 
Myth 1: T&M pricing protects IT Companies if they exceed their estimate. 
Fact: If IT Companies exceed their estimate, even with a T&M pricing model, their 
client will fight with them tooth and nail over the overage, even small overages (This 
is even more true in today’s world of tightened budgets). Often clients will refuse to 
pay above the estimate, forcing IT Companies into a compromise. Moreover, getting 
new business from this client will be substantially harder next time. 
Myth 2: With T&M, IT Companies don’t need a change control process. 
Fact: IT Companies will need to show hard evidence explaining why their estimates 
were wrong. The only evidence worth anything is the change control documents 
signed by clients that clearly outline the cost of change in T&M. In FPP, clients have 
less control over the process maturity, but any change in control processes escalated 
by clients is associated with the cost. 
Myth 3: With T&M, the client benefits if IT Companies are under their estimate. 
Fact: IT Companies will simply not leave money on the table. The Change Requests 
(CR) initiated normally takes longer to get incorporated and even longer if the 
projects are running ahead of schedule. Any successful execution of projects within 
time are generally rewarded by more contracts. 
September 26, 2014 3
Information Technology 
Myth 4: Incompetency in IT Companies’ ability to accurately estimate is a good 
reason to choose T&M 
Fact: Unless IT Companies are upfront with their client about their inability to 
estimate a project, choosing T&M is unethical. The companies are run by 
professionals; they sold themselves as experts with statements like “We’ve done this 
kind of stuff a hundred times before!” If they cannot properly estimate a project, 
they have no right to call themselves experts on the subject matter. If they would 
never tell their prospective clients the real reasons why they are proposing T&M, 
their reason for choosing T&M is simply not valid and likely unethical. They did the 
estimates, they are the expert and it’s their job to know how long it will take and 
what problems may arise. 
Myth 5: Double their estimate, just to be safe. 
Fact: This myth comes in many varieties, which can range from adding 15% to 
quadrupling their estimate. The truth is, doubling their estimate will simply make 
their bid uncompetitive (or unrealistic) and they will lose the contract to a 
competitor. Currently, the market is heavily contested by Large MNCs, Indian 
Heritage Vendors and Niche players. 
Myth 6: Developers don’t need to know the pricing model. 
Fact: Everyone on the team needs to know the pricing model as it affects every 
decision involving billed effort which the team makes. Who is paying for the effort is 
always a factor in such decisions. 
Myth 7: Risk is bad 
Fact: Risk is an opportunity to make (or lose) money. It’s neither good nor bad. 
Successful IT Companies will stay above the Companies stuck with T&M model. They 
can easily earn more just by accepting the risk associated with their own estimate. 
Pricing pressure – An inevitable waiting to happen 
The great financial crisis of 2008 has had a significant impact on the spending pattern 
of the corporate. While the most immediate and pressing impact of the financial 
crisis has been the lack of readily available credit, it is expected that its mid and long‐term 
effects will still be felt in the timing of economic recovery and in high 
unemployment rates in many countries. 
During the crisis, new investments were postponed or scaled back, as investors 
became more cautious. Moreover, IT companies operators came under further price 
pressure for their services as consumers’ purchasing power diminished. 
September 26, 2014 4
Information Technology 
Exhibit 6: Blended Realization (QoQ gr.) (A proxy for pricing): More troughs 
3% 
0% 
‐3% 
‐6% 
TCS Infosys 
Q1FY09 
Q2FY09 
Q3FY09 
Q4FY09 
Q1FY10 
Q2FY10 
Q3FY10 
Q4FY10 
Q1FY11 
Q2FY11 
Q3FY11 
Q4FY11 
Q1FY12 
Q2FY12 
Q3FY12 
Q4FY12 
Q1FY13 
Q2FY13 
Q3FY13 
Q4FY13 
Q1FY14 
Q2FY14 
Q3FY14 
Q4FY14 
Q1FY15 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
The economic downturn posed challenges on the spending turn squeezing the client 
budget. Indian IT Companies have seized the opportunity to offer an effective pricing 
pragmatism through Fixed Price Model. 
Exhibit 7: HCL Tech and Wipro: Strongest improvement in FPP projects 
60% 
52% 
44% 
36% 
28% 
20% 
Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 
Q3FY06 
Q1FY07 
Q3FY07 
Q1FY08 
Q3FY08 
Q1FY09 
Q3FY09 
Q1FY10 
Q3FY10 
Q1FY11 
Q3FY11 
Q1FY12 
Q3FY12 
Q1FY13 
Q3FY13 
Q1FY14 
Q3FY14 
Q1FY15 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 5
Information Technology 
Why clients will push for FPPs over T&M? 
Indian IT companies have been driving towards FPPs over the last few years. The 
overarching concerns on pricing has been mitigated partially by undertaking (or 
migrating to) FPP. Moreover, there has been push from the clients also for FPP. We 
highlight two reasons of FPP drive: 
 To test the potential of IT Companies, clients ask for fixed‐price proposal: By 
asking for FPP, clients tell IT Companies that vendors have not yet "proven" their 
capabilities to clients, which puts clients at risk of not receiving an adequate 
solution. To reduce that risk, clients want IT Companies to demonstrate that IT 
vendors understand clients’ unique problem fully by providing clients with a 
proposed solution. IT Companies proposed solution must have a sound scientific 
basis that will lead to a reliable and reproducible product. IT Companies must 
provide clients with a detailed technical explanation of their proposed solution's 
operation principles, along with calculations that demonstrate IT companies 
have considered and accounted for the deleterious effects of all tolerances, 
parasitic parameters, variations of parameters with ambient conditions and 
aging and so on. 
 Risk of failure in a tight schedule: A potential client's project schedule is too 
tight to take a chance that IT companies might fail, requiring the client to find 
another vendor to do the job over. The client wants IT Companies to remove that 
schedule risk by demonstrating conclusively that their proposed solution will 
meet the requirements. 
Is T&M all that bad? 
We do not see the death of T&M business model in the near future. IT Companies 
working at cutting/bleeding edge of technology has to work with various unknowns. 
We see the less likelihood of adoption of FPP in projects where initial deliverables 
are uncertain example Application Development, SMAC etc. 
Need for Flexibility in a World of Unknowns/ Insufficient data to properly estimate 
it: In a new software development, it rarely happens that features and functionality 
of the new software are known upfront. Even with the best written RFP, there are 
many unknowns that need to flushed out. Clients’ projects are complex and it is 
nearly impossible to understand all the facets of the projects at the beginning. Our 
industry sources indicated that clients would know 60‐80% of what they want to 
build when they provide an estimate. That’s a lot of uncertainty! 
In a FPP, deliverables are agreed upon upfront and there is little flexibility with 
regard to changing features. Any change in a feature set requires an “engineering 
change order”/”Change Request” (CO/CR) and additional funds are approved. In 
some cases, changes are permitted without additional funds. However, in these 
cases, it’s only because the original estimate had so much “fat” that the change can 
be absorbed. 
September 26, 2014 6
Information Technology 
In T&M, IT Companies keep a close eye on the pulse of the project, the budget and 
the needs of our clients. They discuss the changes, they look at the budget and 
determine priority of the features relative to budget and time constraints. Often, 
features that the client thought they needed are no longer important and can be 
postponed for future release. As such, new features can often be added without 
impacting the budget. 
Need for Total Transparency/ Clients want to take part in the project in any way: 
Clients deserve full transparency with regard to project expenses. A firm fixed price 
contract will not provide any transparency, IT Companies will not know if a task took 
two hours to build or 20 hours. Clients are constantly wondering if they paid too 
much. In most cases, clients probably did because the financial risk is 100% on the 
side of the contractors; IT vendors need to inflate their bid to cover their financial 
risk. 
In a T&M project, clients have full transparency on how their budget is being spent. 
There is no guessing as to how many hours a task cost: It’s right there in the invoice! 
If client is providing resources (i.e. internal developers or another vendor is 
participating that the client is managing) or if IT Companies are working on site, 
vendor should go T&M. IT Companies should not be held accountable for the 
performance of client’s resources, where IT Companies are obligated to ensure they 
succeed. Chances are high that IT Companies will wind up performing this work in its 
entirety, while fearing to tell the client that his trusted employees are incompetent. 
T&M is not a Blank Check, Process is the Key: A major misconception is that a T&M 
based project is like having a blank check for the IT vendors. IT Companies’ initial 
estimate is clients’ project budget. They develop in multiple iterations and at the end 
of each iterations, the project is in a working, testable state. They repeat this process 
until the project is ready for final testing and release. This allows them to have 
meaningful conversations with their clients around features, budget and time. They 
have the flexibility to adjust features as priorities shift or as allowed by the budget. 
They have the flexibility to make adjustments that are the best for the project and 
stay within budget. 
Conclusion – There are merits in T&M projects as well 
FPP works best when the clients and IT companies work the best when the 
deliverables are well‐known and understood up front, when there is little need for 
flexibility and changes to the deliverables. The challenges of FPP multiply manifold 
when clients want their IT vendor to build custom software application. We believe 
in the development of software applications need flexible process, which allows for 
change. 
September 26, 2014 7
Information Technology 
Exhibit 8: Parameters comparison – The business model 
Parameters Fixed Price (FP) Time & Material (T&M) 
Requirements Clear Evolving 
Enhancements Additional cost and time, 
deviation in project plan  
Flexibility in Projects 
Task & Schedule   
Resource Selection   
Cost Effective 
‐ 
(Expensive: if requirements 
not clear) 
‐ 
(Expensive: if project deadline 
overrun) 
Customized Report   
Project Task   
Work Load   
Idle Time   
Progress   
Source: PL Research 
TCS: Stable on FPP, Wipro and HCL Tech: Maximum increase in FPP 
Contrary to the popular belief about the FPPs, TCS’ contribution from FPP has stayed 
largely stable over the last eight years. According to TCS’ management commentary, 
the clients drive for FPP depending on the project types. 
Infosys has offered limited colour on their initiatives for FPPs. The company 
continues to have the lowest contribution from FPP. One possible reason for the 
same could be their higher contribution from discretionary portfolio. As we have 
examined earlier in the note, the higher discretionary contribution restricts the 
scope of FPP in the portfolio. 
Wipro and HCL Tech have driven their FPPs migration the strongest among peers. 
The management is more vocal on their initiative to drive their projects toward FPPs. 
Exhibit 9: Wipro and HCL Tech: Maximum increase in FPP contracts. TCS had minimum 
790 bps 
Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 
180 bps 
1170 bps 
‐510 bps 
510 bps 
160 bps 
1480 bps 
1400 bps 
3090 bps 
880 bps 
1890 bps 
2910 bps 
3300 bps 
2650 bps 
2000 bps 
1350 bps 
700 bps 
50 bps 
‐600 bps 
(Dec‐05 to Dec‐08) (Mar‐09 to Jun‐14) (Dec‐05 to Jun‐14) 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 8
Information Technology 
HCL Tech – Benefitted maximum from the FPP drive 
We are over‐simplifying our analysis by attributing the margin expansion only to 
FPP. 
Improvement in HCL Tech’s EBITDA margin has been maximum over the last five 
years, in‐line with their increased FPP which could be attributed to strong growth in 
IMS (contributed ~75% of incremental revenue over the last five years). HCL Tech 
managed to improve their EBITDA margin by ~500bps since Mar‐09 due to increase 
in FPP contribution by near ~1900bps. The company currently has the highest 
contribution from FPP, leaving limited room for another uptick in margin. We see 
pricing renegotiation of older FPP contracts at lower price, resulting in mean 
reversion. 
However, TCS has the most balanced approach among the peers keeping their FPP 
contribution slowly creeping up and investing in efficiencies and process yielding 
increase in operating margin. We expect TCS to stand benefitted during renewal 
cycle of the contracts. 
Wipro and Infosys struggled to keep pace with margin expansion with improvement 
in FPPs. Challenges for Infosys are linked to shrinkages in their pricing premium over 
the last few years. However, Wipro could not manage to keep pace with the industry 
growth and got impacted by rising costs. 
Exhibit 10: Strong operating margin improvement by HCL Tech over last 5 years 
35% 
31% 
27% 
23% 
19% 
15% 
Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 
Q4FY06 
Q2FY07 
Q4FY07 
Q2FY08 
Q4FY08 
Q2FY09 
Q4FY09 
Q2FY10 
Q4FY10 
Q2FY11 
Q4FY11 
Q2FY12 
Q4FY12 
Q2FY13 
Q4FY13 
Q2FY14 
Q4FY14 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 9
Information Technology 
Exhibit 11: TCS EBITDA margin improvement linked to operational efficiency 
500 bps 
Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 
198 bps 
‐700 bps 
336 bps 
37 bps 
‐661 bps 
‐480 bps 
405 bps 179 bps 
‐382 bps 
124 bps 
‐38 bps 
22 bps 
499 bps 
200 bps 
‐100 bps 
‐400 bps 
(Mar‐06 to Dec‐08) (Mar‐09 to Jun‐14) (Mar‐06 to Jun‐14) 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 12: TCS (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Clients drive to FPP 
Q1FY15 Fixed price engagement is a key lever in terms of costs and also mix or realization 
Q2FY14 
Q: Unbilled revenues have gone up in the past 10 quarters but FPP has not changed. 
One need to look at UBR minus UER as a metric because that gives you a better 
picture and if you look at that last two quarters that has been increasing, previous 
two quarters it was decreasing. And the overall trend is more a reflection of the 
nature of contracts and the size of contracts rather than just T&M versus Turnkey. 
When product‐based or asset leverage‐based projects kick in, those tend to have a 
different billing profile. So it is not just a difference between T&M and FPP. 
Q3FY13 
Fixed price engagements require a higher level of productivity. 
TCS has seen fixed price projects go up by 50bps. So does that mean that the 
company is going to be driven by higher fixed price or some other measures? 
S. Mahalingam: No, it will not be purely fixed price. 
N. Chandrasekaran: We also have to operate based on what the customers want. It 
is not something that we decide, frankly. 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 13: Infosys (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Not much commentary on FPP 
Q2FY13 
Post Sales Supports are provisions which Infosys makes on all fixed prices 
contracts. The trend in last few quarters, the write‐off in this space is much 
lower. These are all conservative estimates the company makes on certain FPPs. 
It will get reversed in the future period if they are able to run it more elegantly. 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 10
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Exhibit 14: Wipro (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Gains on margins due to FPP 
Q3FY14 
Wipro’s FPP percentage remains pretty high. So to that extent, whatever money the 
company makes out of automation and everything else, they keep the gains as 
margin gains. Second is on T&M projects again, Wipro believes that ultimately what 
the customers look for is end‐to‐end, cost of the value that they get on an end‐to‐end 
project. 
Q4FY13 
48% is FPP and within that, 48%, especially in the area of Wipro’s technology 
infrastructure services and some of the applications, directionally, the company is 
moving towards more and more outcome‐based results as well as the BPO. 
Q3FY13 
The key driver for increase in price realization this quarter was the benefit of the 
productivity gain that Wipro is able to get, by implementing tools and automation 
and some of the productivity techniques into their FPP and that has been the driver 
for the overall realization uptick. 
Q2FY13 
A lot of the realization improvement has been achieved during the quarter due to 
driving revenue productivity and fixed‐price contracts which will have a negative 
impact on volume. Despite the impact of additional two months of salary increase, 
continued investment in sales and marketing, utilization drop and FOREX impact, 
margin impact was limited to 30bps through significant improvement in revenue 
productivity and other operational parameters. 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
Exhibit 15: HCL Tech (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Strong initiative to FPP 
Q4FY14 
Managed Services and FPP were about 50‐50 till about two years back; however, 
they have moved up to 52 in FPP last year and now 56% of the portfolio in FY14. 
Revenue per employee within HCL today is a little over US$61,000 or US$62,000 
per employee which is significantly higher than the industry average. And one 
reason is non‐linearity and the FPP/Managed Services construct. 
Q3FY14 Most of the rebid market that HCL Tech bids is Managed Services or FPP. 
Q1FY14 Ratio of FPP, Managed Services and outcome base is increasing since FY11 that is 
helping HCL Tech to decide the most optimal way to run the operations. 
Q4FY13 
HCL Tech continues to increase the amount of their revenue that comes from 
Managed Service or Fixed Price Revenue Models which allows the company to 
move to more into low cost locations. This dampens the top‐line growth but 
enhances company’s margin deliveries. 
Q2FY13 
With respect to the question on leaves and furloughs, the company has limited 
exposure there, because a lot of their engagements have moved significantly into 
FPP and managed services model and therefore, the company is really not 
dependant on that construct. 
Source: Company Data, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 11
Information Technology 
Top picks – TCS, Infosys and Wipro 
There is no eventual winning billing model. Challenges on the macro front pushes for 
cost cognizance. Hence, FPP offers a solution for matured services or challenging 
business environment, whereas, a conducive business environment implies the 
takeoff of more green‐field development projects which may push for T&M model. 
We see a swift transition to FPP accompanied by margin expansion as a risk 
because it would expose the company to the risk of mean reversal in renegotiation. 
We continue to see similar risk for HCL Tech. However, TCS, Infosys and Wipro still 
have room for exploiting that opportunity. 
We reiterate our ‘BUY’ recommendation on TCS, Infosys and Wipro and 
‘Accumulate’ on HCL Tech. 
Exhibit 16: TCS 
16.2 
32.0 
28.0 
24.0 
20.0 
16.0 
12.0 
8.0 
4.0 
0.0 
1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER 
Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research 
Exhibit 17: Infosys 
16.9 
32.0 
28.0 
24.0 
20.0 
16.0 
12.0 
8.0 
4.0 
0.0 
1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER 
Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research 
Exhibit 18: Wipro 
1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER 
13.7 
35.0 
30.0 
25.0 
20.0 
15.0 
10.0 
5.0 
0.0 
Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research 
Exhibit 19: HCL Tech 
1‐Yr. Forward PER Average PER 
11.6x 
20.0 
15.0 
10.0 
5.0 
0.0 
Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 
Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research 
September 26, 2014 12
Information Technology 
Appendix 
Other non‐linear pricing models 
We have ignored the discussion on other non‐linear pricing model to keep discussion 
lucid and simple. Among, the other widely used pricing models that Indian IT 
companies offer are Hybrid Model, Managed Service Model, Outcome Based Model, 
Transaction Based Model. 
Non‐linear pricing models decouple the relationship between time and material 
(effort and rate). Normally, T&M and FP do not offer much scope for modification 
and changes. Service providers have realized the need to be flexible to satisfy their 
customers. This has led to innovations in pricing models that suit varying needs. 
Some non‐linear pricing models are mentioned below 
Hybrid Model: The hybrid model uses T&M techniques to estimate costs for projects 
that do not have clear‐cut goals or detailed and complete requirements initially. It 
then allows customers to pay a fixed price based on the estimation. This hybrid 
pricing model has the best features of both the models – T&M and FP, as mentioned 
above. It allows service providers to deploy resources as in the T&M model, but most 
of the project is executed according to the FP model. Hence, the project has a 
smooth workflow and well‐aligned processes. 
Hybrid is the best pricing model for bigger, longer and ongoing projects with unclear 
objectives at the start. Here input and feedback is needed in the beginning, but 
delivery can be perfected over time to ensure that all customer requirements are 
successfully met. This model is a great middle ground for professionals who like 
hourly payments and customers who prefer to make a one‐time payment for the 
project. The hybrid pricing model helps customers optimize budgets without 
compromising on the quality of product or application. It also gives the service 
provider a controlled environment with shared risks in operations. 
Exhibit 20: Pros‐Cons of Hybrid Model 
Pros Cons 
Utilizes the best features of both the T&M and FP 
pricing models 
Customer has no control in resource utilization and 
maximum ownership is with service providers 
Middle ground for the customers amongst hourly payment 
and one‐time payment 
Shared risks between service provider 
and customer 
Helps the customer to optimize the budget without 
compromising on the quality of deliverables 
Low risk model for both service provider and customer 
Knowledge retention 
Source: PL Research 
September 26, 2014 13
Information Technology 
Managed Services Model: The managed services model offers defined service 
deliverables at a fixed cost. Traditionally, value was realized according to how well it 
was managed by the service provider, and how well it was perceived by the 
customer. This was more qualitative in nature. In the managed services model on the 
other hand, the value‐add is quantitatively measured in terms of target Service Level 
Agreements (SLAs). This is based on clearly defined parameters in project 
performance and quality. 
Customers are billed at a fixed monthly cost plus unit cost per additional unit 
delivered. For customers, the model helps them arrive at a predictable budget. For 
service providers, it assures continuous fixed revenue, plus additional revenue 
through scalability and better margins through repetition. Mutually agreed SLAs will 
be met, unless the service provider wishes to pay a penalty. If the service provider 
meets / exceeds all agreed SLAs they are monetarily rewarded, as per the contract. 
Some key features of the managed services model: 
 The service provider takes end‐to‐end responsibility of set service lines and 
deliverables 
 The service provider makes the decisions and takes the responsibility to provide 
the agreed set of deliverables 
 Budgets are mostly fixed for the entire piece of work, making it more like a fixed 
price managed services engagement. In this case, the service provider has a free 
hand in deciding how, where and with how many personnel the project can be 
delivered. The risk associated with such an approach is that the service provider 
may decide to allocate shared resources, which could result in delivery issues 
 This model is often adopted when work can be clearly scoped out, with clearly 
marked deliverables 
 For this model to work, the service provider should have an excellent 
understanding of the customer’s systems. The customer in turn should be 
confident enough to hand over work to the service provider 
 The customer’s role is that of a reviewer with the additional responsibility of 
contracts management and budget tracking 
 The service provider will be responsible for selection of resources as well as 
managing stakeholder expectations 
 There will be clearly marked SLAs for each deliverable, with penalties applicable 
for non‐delivery 
September 26, 2014 14
Information Technology 
 Delivery of service can be performed onshore at the client location, offshore or 
a combination of both 
 A managed services model is often adopted by enterprises as a continuation of 
an existing staff augmentation. Adopting a managed services model from day 
one comes with lots of risks. 
Exhibit 21: Pros‐Cons of Managed Service Model 
Pros Cons 
Since delivery and stakeholder expectations are the 
service provider’s responsibility, the customer can focus 
fully on their core strategic initiatives 
Service providers are sometimes reluctant to assume more 
management responsibilities 
Service providers are more independent and have a 
relatively interference‐free management of the project 
Culture mismatch between the customer and service 
provider can result in a lack of understanding, which 
may affect deliverables 
Enables service providers to make long‐term strategic 
investments that should indirectly benefit the customer 
Sometimes, service providers don’t have a view of 
the scope of the project or may not understand all 
of the customer’s pain points, which could result in 
major setbacks 
Service providers bring their best practices into the 
project, thereby making key process improvements 
In a multi‐service provider scenario, where for instance 
one provider manages applications and the other, 
infrastructure, blame games are common, with no‐one 
willing to assume responsibility 
SLA driven approach results in key process improvements 
delivering significant, measurable benefits to the customer 
Re‐allocation of the contract, in case of performance 
issues or non‐conformance of SLAs, might be a challenge, 
given that the existing service provider will be less 
cooperative 
Knowledge retention becomes more streamlined 
and sustainable 
Source: PL Research 
Outcome‐Based Pricing Model: Outcome‐driven solutions are pin‐pointed and 
positioned as delivering specific value to the business. Outcome‐based projects aim 
to deliver measurable impact on the customer’s overall business results. The basic 
philosophy is to align the interests of the service provider and the customer so that 
both work towards the same goal. In this model, the scope is the business outcome 
itself. Clearly defined and fixed outcomes which can be measured and delivered for a 
given project is critical to its success. In an outcome‐based model, resource loading, 
costing and pricing is a complicated exercise. 
The mechanism for paying the service provider varies. But generally the payment is 
made in made in one lump sum when the result is achieved or over shorter 
milestones, so that the service provider recoups its investment in time. 
The three key elements of an outcomes‐driven project are: 
 The service provider cannot earn a direct revenue from the customer unless the 
work outcome delivers value to the customer 
September 26, 2014 15
Information Technology 
 The scope of work impacts a large chunk of the process that influences a 
business outcome, and service provider can adjust / tweak some elements of 
the process to impact the business outcome 
 Service providers need to develop competences to tightly define the scope of an 
outcome‐based project to be successful 
The primary driver of outcome‐based pricing is the process characteristics, and 
scope of engagement with the customer. As a rule of thumb, if a process directly 
impacts measurable business outcome like revenue or cost, the service provider 
should explore a business outcome‐based pricing. More so if there are enough 
opportunities to impact the business outcome. However, the thing to remember is 
whether the scope of work covers the majority of elements that drive a particular 
outcome. 
In outcome‐based projects, service providers control a significant portion of the 
value chain affecting outcomes, even when they are not directly under the service 
provider’s control. Hence, bringing into your sphere of influence things not under 
your influence is a critical part of the execution model. This is where partnership 
with other service providers, even competitors, will be a critical factor in success. 
In this model, the customer gets rewarded by converting a fixed cost into a truly 
variable cost model that scales with the business. It frees up client executives from 
worrying about issues like technology, process and people, and allows them to focus 
on business outcomes – things that really matter to the business. The customer 
carries no risk since they pay only when they get the desired outcome. By having a 
standardized definition of input and output in an outcomes‐driven model, services 
become more like products. 
In an outcome‐based model, service providers bet on the customer and vice versa, 
to make success happen. Risk transfers from customer to service provider, the model 
progresses from T&M to outcome‐based. The service provider should account for 
transference of risk and cover by including a risk premium in the price. The risk 
premium increases as you progress through these models and results in increasing 
margins for the service provider. The ability to measure risk and charge the 
appropriate risk premium is a critical factor in the service provider’s success. 
Exhibit 22: Pros‐Cons of Outcome Based Model 
Pros Cons 
Directly aligned to the customer’s business outcome Lack of transparency in how work is performed 
Potential for higher eventual savings as labor arbitrage is 
replaced by productivity and synergies between tasks Little insight into cost of services 
Ability to incent more innovative behavior from 
service provider 
Cultural resistance from both customer and 
service provider 
Deep appreciation of the customer’s business model, 
operations and industry nuances 
Customer enterprises are sometimes too immature to 
appreciate the change management process 
Source: PL Research 
September 26, 2014 16
Information Technology 
Transaction Pricing Model: A transaction is a sequence of steps with defined input 
and output, which achieves a business purpose. Examples of transactions include 
invoice or payroll processing. A transaction unit is a unit of measure with which a 
transaction can be measured. Examples of transaction units are ‘per pay slip’ or ‘per 
invoice’, etc. A transaction price is typically quoted as ‘price per transaction unit’. It 
is generally mentioned as applicable for a specified transaction volume range. 
The transaction‐based pricing model is based on the number of transactions 
processed. Typically a base price is provided for a specified volume band, with a 
negotiated increase or decrease in price as usage fluctuates around the specified 
band. In this model, the scope becomes very important. The scope is also slightly 
different from conventional projects and should be defined more tightly. 
The volume of transactions and the variations in volume in a day, week, month or 
months make a huge impact on pricing and effort. Another important scope element 
is the form of input. Whether the input is electronic, paper form, integrated into xml, 
importable or already imported can have a huge impact on the cost. Any change in 
the assumption of proportion of the two forms of applications could make a huge 
effort and cost difference for the service provider. In this model, service providers 
take on a higher risk. They take on risks related to the volume of business, as the 
pricing is based on certain volume assumptions. Change or variation in the volume 
can have can have a dramatic impact on their cost. 
Exhibit 23: Pros‐Cons of Transaction Based Model 
Pros Cons 
Closely tied to the customer’s business cycle May not be directly tied to the customer’s business outcome 
Enhances customer visibility into consumption pattern Lack of transparency on how work is performed 
Encourages productivity and efficiency 
Source: PL Research 
September 26, 2014 17
Information Technology 
Which pricing model suits a given engagement? 
The pricing model need not be intelligent enough to address the customer’s budget 
objectives, but has to suit the respective customer engagement. IT engagements 
spread from discovery and definition types to implementation, maintenance and 
support. The pricing model that worked for one type of engagement may or may not 
work for another. It is also possible that a pricing model that suits one client may not 
suit another. Naturally, assessing the best possible pricing model for a customer or 
an engagement sometimes requires a trial. 
Exhibit 24: Which pricing model suits a given engagement? 
Hybrid model 
Best pricing model for bigger, longer and ongoing projects, which may need inputs in the beginning but can be perfected over time 
Service provider is engaging with the customer for the first time 
Both service provider and customer want to mitigate the risks of T&M and FP pricing models 
Managed services model 
Work clearly scoped out, with clearly marked out deliverables 
Service provider has an excellent understanding of the customer’s systems. The customer in turn is confident enough to hand over 
the work to them 
Outcome‐based pricing model 
Clearly defined output 
Output aligning to business process or where direct impact can be defined 
For customers who want to align the service provider’s goals with their business goals 
Transaction‐based pricing model 
Transaction volumes are known and predictable 
From the customer’s perspective, this model is used for business process which can be clearly defined, measured in discrete units 
Transaction volume are tied to the service provider’s cost drivers 
For the service provider’s perspective, this model is used in business process that are standardized, transaction intensive and demand‐driven 
Source: PL Research 
September 26, 2014 18
Information Technology 
Tata Consultancy Services 
BUY CMP: Rs2,709 TP: Rs2,900 
Income Statement (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Net Revenue 629,895 818,094 963,409 1,135,703 
Raw Material Expenses 339,245 430,645 516,286 616,404 
Gross Profit 290,650 387,449 447,123 519,299 
Employee Cost — — — — 
Other Expenses 109,779 135,878 159,344 186,836 
EBITDA 180,872 251,570 287,779 332,463 
Depr. & Amortization 10,792 13,492 15,864 19,316 
Net Interest (10,722) (13,789) (11,593) (12,021) 
Other Income 11,881 16,613 21,858 24,286 
Profit before Tax 181,960 254,691 293,773 337,433 
Total Tax 40,345 60,712 68,155 77,610 
Profit after Tax 141,615 193,979 225,618 259,823 
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. (1,493) (2,090) (2,466) (2,915) 
Adj. PAT 140,122 191,889 223,152 256,908 
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 1,957.2 1,958.7 1,958.7 1,958.7 
EPS (Rs.) 71.6 98.0 113.9 131.2 
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
C/F from Operations 123,260 159,223 200,588 237,042 
C/F from Investing (68,535) (108,729) (38,536) (45,428) 
C/F from Financing (7,115) 75,531 (66,545) (74,432) 
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 47,610 126,024 95,507 117,182 
Opening Cash 19,936 18,432 144,907 240,414 
Closing Cash 67,546 144,907 240,414 357,596 
FCFF 70,004 156,027 159,586 188,698 
FCFE 70,160 155,990 159,586 188,698 
Key Financial Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Growth 
Revenue (%) 28.8 29.9 17.8 17.9 
EBITDA (%) 25.4 39.1 14.4 15.5 
PAT (%) 31.0 36.9 16.3 15.1 
EPS (%) 31.0 36.8 16.3 15.1 
Profitability 
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.7 30.8 29.9 29.3 
PAT Margin (%) 22.2 23.5 23.2 22.6 
RoCE (%) 38.1 39.8 33.8 30.8 
RoE (%) 38.1 39.9 35.3 31.9 
Balance Sheet 
Net Debt : Equity (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) 
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — 
Valuation 
PER (x) 37.8 27.6 23.8 20.7 
P / B (x) 12.9 9.6 7.4 5.9 
EV / EBITDA (x) 28.9 20.5 17.6 14.9 
EV / Sales (x) 8.3 6.3 5.3 4.4 
Earnings Quality 
Eff. Tax Rate 22.2 23.8 23.2 23.0 
Other Inc / PBT 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.2 
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.6 
FCFE / PAT 50.1 81.3 71.5 73.4 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Shareholder's Funds 409,560 553,352 712,425 897,817 
Total Debt 1,310 1,273 1,273 1,273 
Other Liabilities 20,340 23,749 23,749 23,749 
Total Liabilities 431,209 578,374 737,447 922,839 
Net Fixed Assets 81,943 103,644 126,316 152,428 
Goodwill 35,063 41,568 41,568 41,568 
Investments 20,404 34,489 34,489 34,489 
Net Current Assets 215,841 307,363 443,764 603,044 
Cash & Equivalents 67,546 144,907 240,414 357,596 
Other Current Assets 237,821 273,208 348,377 410,773 
Current Liabilities 89,526 110,752 145,027 165,325 
Other Assets 77,959 91,309 91,309 91,309 
Total Assets 431,209 578,374 737,447 922,839 
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) 
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 
Net Revenue 209,772 212,940 215,511 221,110 
EBITDA 66,390 66,866 66,559 62,324 
% of revenue 31.6 31.4 30.9 28.2 
Depr. & Amortization 3,095 3,519 3,749 4,175 
Net Interest (3,094) (3,095) (4,420) (4,993) 
Other Income (230) 6,870 6,756 8,237 
Profit before Tax 63,065 70,076 69,881 66,300 
Total Tax 15,563 16,524 16,313 15,312 
Profit after Tax 51,441 53,140 53,048 50,578 
Adj. PAT 51,441 53,140 53,048 50,578 
Key Operating Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Volume (persons month) 2,244,506 2,498,135 2,947,799 3,484,299 
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 33.4 35.0 35.5 35.9 
Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.9 59.8 59.0 
SW Devp. Cost (% of Sales) 53.9 52.6 53.6 54.3 
SG&A (% of Sales) 17.4 16.6 16.5 16.5 
Revenue (US$ m) 11,568 13,443 16,124 19,249 
EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (78) 204 122 (237) 
Tax Rate (%) 22.3 23.9 23.2 23.0 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
September 26, 2014 19
Information Technology 
Infosys 
BUY CMP: Rs3,691 TP: Rs4,040 
Income Statement (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Net Revenue 403,520 501,330 538,365 606,727 
Raw Material Expenses 241,510 307,670 324,928 368,905 
Gross Profit 162,010 193,660 213,437 237,822 
Employee Cost — — — — 
Other Expenses 46,430 59,510 65,404 73,478 
EBITDA 115,580 134,150 148,033 164,344 
Depr. & Amortization 11,290 13,740 9,762 10,864 
Net Interest — — — — 
Other Income 23,590 26,690 30,370 33,145 
Profit before Tax 127,880 147,100 168,641 186,625 
Total Tax 33,670 40,620 46,376 50,389 
Profit after Tax 94,210 106,480 122,265 136,236 
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — — 
Adj. PAT 94,210 106,480 122,265 136,236 
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 572.0 572.0 572.0 572.0 
EPS (Rs.) 164.7 186.2 213.7 238.2 
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
C/F from Operations 94,780 121,870 102,114 133,346 
C/F from Investing (50,510) (50,030) (22,073) (24,876) 
C/F from Financing (31,860) (30,660) (37,127) (39,983) 
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 12,410 41,180 42,914 68,487 
Opening Cash 205,910 218,320 259,500 302,414 
Closing Cash 218,320 259,500 302,414 370,902 
FCFF 79,600 100,820 80,041 108,470 
FCFE 79,600 100,820 80,041 108,470 
Key Financial Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Growth 
Revenue (%) 19.6 24.2 7.4 12.7 
EBITDA (%) 7.9 16.1 10.3 11.0 
PAT (%) 13.3 13.0 14.8 11.4 
EPS (%) 13.3 13.0 14.8 11.4 
Profitability 
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.6 26.8 27.5 27.1 
PAT Margin (%) 23.3 21.2 22.7 22.5 
RoCE (%) 25.6 24.3 23.5 22.3 
RoE (%) 25.7 24.4 23.6 22.4 
Balance Sheet 
Net Debt : Equity (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) 
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — 
Valuation 
PER (x) 22.4 19.8 17.3 15.5 
P / B (x) 5.3 4.4 3.8 3.2 
EV / EBITDA (x) 16.4 13.8 12.2 10.6 
EV / Sales (x) 4.7 3.7 3.4 2.9 
Earnings Quality 
Eff. Tax Rate 26.3 27.6 27.5 27.0 
Other Inc / PBT 18.4 18.1 18.0 17.8 
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 10.6 10.2 6.3 6.0 
FCFE / PAT 84.5 94.7 65.5 79.6 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Shareholder's Funds 397,970 475,300 560,438 656,692 
Total Debt — — — — 
Other Liabilities 2,680 3,870 3,870 3,870 
Total Liabilities 400,650 479,170 564,308 660,562 
Net Fixed Assets 64,680 78,870 91,181 105,193 
Goodwill 23,440 24,990 24,990 24,990 
Investments 17,390 32,710 32,710 32,710 
Net Current Assets 272,880 306,100 378,927 461,169 
Cash & Equivalents 218,320 259,500 302,414 370,902 
Other Current Assets 117,420 137,980 169,622 191,160 
Current Liabilities 62,860 91,380 93,109 100,893 
Other Assets 22,260 36,500 36,500 36,500 
Total Assets 400,650 479,170 564,308 660,562 
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) 
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 
Net Revenue 129,650 130,260 128,750 127,700 
EBITDA 31,710 36,200 36,410 34,410 
% of revenue 24.5 27.8 28.3 26.9 
Depr. & Amortization 3,340 3,610 3,600 2,300 
Net Interest — — — — 
Other Income 5,100 7,310 8,510 8,290 
Profit before Tax 33,470 39,900 41,320 40,400 
Total Tax 9,400 11,150 11,400 11,540 
Profit after Tax 24,070 28,750 29,920 28,860 
Adj. PAT 24,070 28,750 29,920 28,860 
Key Operating Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Volume (persons month) 1,236,844 1,367,759 1,442,986 1,630,574 
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 34 34 35 36 
Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.8 59.8 59.0 
SW Devp. Cost (% of sales) 59.9 61.4 60.4 60.8 
SG&A (% of sales) 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.1 
Revenue (US$ m) 7,398 8,249 9,010 10,284 
EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (312.3) (188.4) 73.8 (41.0) 
Tax Rate (%) 26.3 27.5 27.5 27.0 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
September 26, 2014 20
Information Technology 
Wipro 
BUY CMP: Rs583 TP: Rs680 
Income Statement (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Net Revenue 374,256 434,269 488,922 545,933 
Raw Material Expenses 260,665 295,488 331,108 368,523 
Gross Profit 113,591 138,781 157,815 177,410 
Employee Cost — — — — 
Other Expenses 35,410 41,680 45,778 51,508 
EBITDA 78,181 97,101 112,036 125,903 
Depr. & Amortization 10,835 11,106 12,814 13,006 
Net Interest — 52 — — 
Other Income 11,250 15,062 14,775 19,327 
Profit before Tax 78,596 101,005 113,998 132,224 
Total Tax 16,912 22,601 25,079 29,089 
Profit after Tax 61,684 78,404 88,918 103,134 
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — 62 200 100 
Adj. PAT 61,684 78,394 88,718 103,034 
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 2,463.0 2,466.0 2,466.0 2,466.0 
EPS (Rs.) 25.0 31.8 36.0 41.8 
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
C/F from Operations 70,422 67,895 112,053 111,858 
C/F from Investing (53,410) (2,774) (14,668) (16,378) 
C/F from Financing (9,840) (35,041) (22,093) (22,093) 
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 7,172 30,080 75,292 73,387 
Opening Cash 77,666 84,121 114,201 189,493 
Closing Cash 84,838 114,201 189,493 262,880 
FCFF 109,865 45,262 97,385 95,480 
FCFE 88,209 55,317 97,385 95,480 
Key Financial Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Growth 
Revenue (%) 17.4 16.0 12.6 11.7 
EBITDA (%) 17.2 24.2 15.4 12.4 
PAT (%) 17.3 27.1 13.2 16.1 
EPS (%) 17.1 26.9 13.2 16.1 
Profitability 
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9 22.4 22.9 23.1 
PAT Margin (%) 16.5 18.1 18.1 18.9 
RoCE (%) 20.5 24.2 22.6 22.1 
RoE (%) 21.7 25.0 23.5 22.9 
Balance Sheet 
Net Debt : Equity (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) 
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (2) (6) 7 6 
Valuation 
PER (x) 23.3 18.3 16.2 13.9 
P / B (x) 5.1 4.2 3.5 2.9 
EV / EBITDA (x) 17.3 13.7 11.2 9.4 
EV / Sales (x) 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.2 
Earnings Quality 
Eff. Tax Rate 21.5 22.4 22.0 22.0 
Other Inc / PBT 14.3 14.9 13.0 14.6 
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 10.7 9.8 10.0 9.0 
FCFE / PAT 143.0 70.6 109.8 92.7 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Shareholder's Funds 283,812 343,499 410,124 491,065 
Total Debt 854 10,909 10,909 10,909 
Other Liabilities 10,324 11,440 11,440 11,440 
Total Liabilities 294,990 365,848 432,473 513,414 
Net Fixed Assets 50,525 51,449 53,303 56,674 
Goodwill 56,470 65,358 65,358 65,358 
Investments 69,222 60,843 60,843 60,843 
Net Current Assets 86,084 147,899 212,670 290,240 
Cash & Equivalents 84,838 114,201 189,493 262,880 
Other Current Assets 145,986 170,154 189,853 211,564 
Current Liabilities 144,740 136,456 166,676 184,204 
Other Assets 32,689 40,299 40,299 40,299 
Total Assets 294,990 365,848 432,473 513,414 
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) 
Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 
Net Revenue 110,053 112,713 116,535 111,358 
EBITDA 25,170 25,923 28,180 25,507 
% of revenue 22.9 23.0 24.2 22.9 
Depr. & Amortization 2,615 3,109 2,880 2,834 
Net Interest — — — — 
Other Income 4,949 3,518 3,627 4,449 
Profit before Tax 27,504 26,332 28,927 27,122 
Total Tax 5,754 6,060 6,536 5,942 
Profit after Tax 21,647 20,397 22,391 21,032 
Adj. PAT 21,647 20,397 22,391 21,032 
Key Operating Metrics 
Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
IT Svcs Revs ($ mn) 689,616 744,785 811,816 884,879 
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 38.8 39.2 39.6 40.0 
Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.3 59.8 59.0 
Sw. Devp. Cost (% of Sales) 69.6 68.0 67.7 67.5 
SG&A (% of Sales) 9.5 9.6 9.4 9.4 
Revenue (US$ m) 6,865 7,238 8,183 9,253 
EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (4.0) 147.0 55.5 14.7 
Tax Rate (%) 21.5 22.4 22.0 22.0 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
September 26, 2014 21
Information Technology 
HCL Technologies 
Accumulate CMP: Rs1,708 TP: Rs1,750 
Income Statement (Rs m) 
Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Net Revenue 257,336 329,180 373,127 422,588 
Raw Material Expenses 164,779 202,160 228,053 260,119 
Gross Profit 92,557 127,020 145,074 162,469 
Employee Cost — — — — 
Other Expenses 34,201 40,350 49,942 57,490 
EBITDA 58,356 86,670 95,133 104,979 
Depr. & Amortization 6,726 7,320 7,977 8,648 
Net Interest — — — — 
Other Income 1,571 (160) 7,500 9,092 
Profit before Tax 53,201 79,190 94,655 105,423 
Total Tax 12,217 15,480 19,920 22,709 
Profit after Tax 40,984 63,710 74,735 82,714 
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — — 
Adj. PAT 40,984 63,710 74,735 82,714 
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 693.3 693.3 693.3 693.3 
EPS (Rs.) 59.1 91.9 107.8 119.3 
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
C/F from Operations 47,188 65,063 63,299 86,620 
C/F from Investing (25,455) (52,729) (13,806) (15,636) 
C/F from Financing (21,085) (11,885) (12,457) (15,246) 
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 648 449 37,036 55,738 
Opening Cash 6,673 7,321 10,206 47,242 
Closing Cash 7,321 10,206 47,242 102,980 
FCFF 25,332 18,596 56,955 79,224 
FCFE 13,070 19,145 56,955 79,224 
Key Financial Metrics 
Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Growth 
Revenue (%) 22.4 27.9 13.4 13.3 
EBITDA (%) 45.0 48.5 9.8 10.4 
PAT (%) 62.2 55.5 17.3 10.7 
EPS (%) 62.2 55.5 17.3 10.7 
Profitability 
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.7 26.3 25.5 24.8 
PAT Margin (%) 15.9 19.4 20.0 19.6 
RoCE (%) 26.9 32.8 29.4 25.9 
RoE (%) 32.8 37.1 32.1 27.6 
Balance Sheet 
Net Debt : Equity — — (0.1) (0.3) 
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — 
Valuation 
PER (x) 28.9 18.6 15.8 14.3 
P / B (x) 8.3 5.9 4.5 3.5 
EV / EBITDA (x) 20.3 13.6 12.0 10.4 
EV / Sales (x) 4.6 3.6 3.1 2.6 
Earnings Quality 
Eff. Tax Rate 23.0 19.5 21.0 21.5 
Other Inc / PBT 3.0 (0.2) 7.9 8.6 
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 24.7 23.3 21.1 19.1 
FCFE / PAT 31.9 30.1 76.2 95.8 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) 
Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Shareholder's Funds 142,908 200,814 265,092 334,561 
Total Debt 6,960 7,509 7,509 7,509 
Other Liabilities 15,151 14,615 12,615 10,615 
Total Liabilities 165,019 222,938 285,216 352,685 
Net Fixed Assets 27,283 31,465 37,808 45,203 
Goodwill 49,581 51,492 50,977 50,569 
Investments 541 156 156 156 
Net Current Assets 65,226 116,363 172,813 233,294 
Cash & Equivalents 7,321 10,206 47,242 102,980 
Other Current Assets 123,328 188,123 213,486 229,883 
Current Liabilities 65,423 81,966 87,915 99,569 
Other Assets 22,389 23,462 23,462 23,462 
Total Assets 165,020 222,938 285,216 352,685 
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) 
Y/e June Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15E 
Net Revenue 81,840 83,490 84,240 88,272 
EBITDA 21,250 22,320 22,170 22,068 
% of revenue 26.0 26.7 26.3 25.0 
Depr. & Amortization 1,660 1,590 1,650 1,765 
Net Interest — — — — 
Other Income (470) (70) 1,580 2,000 
Profit before Tax 18,930 20,530 21,980 22,161 
Total Tax 3,980 4,290 3,620 4,654 
Profit after Tax 14,950 16,240 18,360 17,507 
Adj. PAT 14,950 16,240 18,360 17,507 
Key Operating Metrics 
Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 
Volume (persons months) 500,637 562,716 614,486 703,586 
Pricing (US$ / Hr) 35.3 37.1 37.7 38.2 
Currency (INR/USD) 54.7 61.4 59.8 59.0 
SW. Devp. Cost (% of sales) 64.0 61.4 61.1 61.6 
SG&A (% of sales) 13.3 12.3 13.4 13.6 
Revenue (US$ m) 4,686 5,360 6,245 7,163 
EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) 354 365 (83) (65) 
Tax Rate (%) 23.0 19.5 21.0 21.5 
Source: Company Data, PL Research. 
September 26, 2014 22
Information Technology 
THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 
September 26, 2014 23
Information Technology 
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India 
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage 
30.7% 
51.8% 
17.5% 
0.0% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
0% 
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell 
% of Total Coverage 
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature 
BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months 
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months 
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month 
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly 
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as 
information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be 
considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. 
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy 
or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, 
statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. 
Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The 
suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an 
independent expert/advisor. 
Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or 
engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. 
We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. 
September 26, 2014 24

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Information Technology: A qualitative assessment of two billing models - Prabhudas Lilladher

  • 1. September 26, 2014 Information Technology FPP v/s T&M: A qualitative assessment of two billing models 140 130 120 110 100 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report Sector Update Shashi Bhusan shashibhusan@plindia.com +91‐22‐66322300 Hussain Kagzi hussainkagzi@plindia.com +91‐22‐66322242 Sensex v/s CNX IT 90 Sep‐13 Nov‐13 Jan‐14 Mar‐14 May‐14 Jul‐14 Sep‐14 CNX IT Sensex Source: Bloomberg Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M 12M Sensex 0.1 19.8 33.0 CNX IT Index 4.8 21.3 37.1 HCL Tech. 7.2 23.5 63.9 Infosys 2.0 13.8 22.6 TCS 6.9 31.0 41.7 Wipro 5.8 6.9 22.1 The creeping transition of Indian IT companies to Fixed Price Projects (FPP) from Time & Material (T&M) to mitigate the pricing pressure was evident over the last half‐a‐decade. We have tried to qualitatively assess the pros & cons of these two billing models. Our assessment indicated the maturity of commoditized business which has resulted in migration towards FPP, whereas T&M is handy for Greenfield projects. We don’t see any inherent advantage for either of these models. However, different stages of business cycles and process maturities will promote different billing models.  T&M v/s FPP – Consulting v/s Engineering: IT Services originates from Consulting business; hence, T&M became the de‐facto choice of billing. Our analysis indicates no inherent advantage of one over the other and Indian IT companies are likely to stay amicable with both the billing models.  FPP is a reflection of process maturity...: There are few myths around the FPP like T&M protects eventuality in cost overruns, need stronger control processes for FPP, vendors can pad‐up their bids to escape uncertainty and risk is bad. We believe Indian IT companies over the last two decades have got the most evolved processes for IT Services; hence, they can see creeping migration to FPP.  ... but, T&M handy for Greenfield projects: T&M model is convenient for projects marred with uncertainties. Need for flexibility for uncertainties associated with a project and transparency of the process drives the existence of T&M model. We see the contribution of discretionary (App Development, Greenfield PI, SMAC etc.) to drive the sustained T&M.  Pricing pressure on traditional services – An inevitable waited to happen: The great financial crisis (2008) changed the spending pattern of the corporate when clients wanted to do more with less. Hence, the commoditized services witnessed pricing pressure. Indian IT adapted to the changing need and offered FPP as a solution that can give them manoeuvrability on the costing front.  TCS has the slowest growth in FPP, Wipro & HCL Tech have the fastest growth in FPP contribution: TCS’ FPP contribution has been relatively flattish over the last five years, whereas Wipro and HCL Tech have witnessed maximum increase. We see improved process maturity and productivity gain for TCS, whereas, HCL Tech reaped the benefit of continued migration of FPP.  Valuation & Recommendation – Prefers TCS, INFO & WPRO: There is no winning billing model. Challenging macro pushes for cost cognizance. Hence, FPP offers a solution for matured services, whereas, the conducive environment implies a green‐field development project that may push for T&M model. We see a quick transition to FPP translating into margin gains having risk of mean reversal in renegotiation. We continue to see similar risk for HCL Tech. However, TCS, Infosys and Wipro still have unexplored opportunities. Exhibit 1: Top picks – TCS, Infosys and Wipro Revenues (Rs m) EPS (Rs) CMP (Rs) Target (Rs) Rating Upside EPS CAGR 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E Infosys 538,365 606,727 213.7 238.2 3,691 4,040 BUY 9.5% 13.1% TCS 963,409 1,135,703 113.9 131.2 2,709 2,900 BUY 7.1% 15.7% Wipro 488,922 545,933 36.0 41.8 583 680 BUY 16.7% 14.6% HCL Technologies 373,127 422,588 107.8 119.3 1,708 1,750 Accumulate 2.4% 13.9% Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research (All prices as on September 25, 2014)
  • 2. Information Technology Pricing Models ‐ Time & Material v/s Fixed Price: Stem from their evolution to Consulting v/s Engineering Emergence of IT Services from high cost IT infrastructure in the 1960‐70s, wherein the clients used to rent the infrastructure, resulted in a consulting‐led approach for pricing i.e. T&M. However, FPP evolution stems their root from Engineering Floor, wherein, the process efficiency, adaptability and productivity gain holds the key. Prima facie, there is no inherent advantage of one type of billing over the other. Open discussions between the clients and consultant can allow both types of billing to go forward amicably. Consultants with little experience in billing clients directly are usually better off billing time‐and‐materials until they have learnt how to quote a fixed price. However, in the future, they can select the model that works best and most profitably. Clients decide tradeoff between certainty and the prospect of a lower bill when the work can be completed efficiently then choose the model that suits them best. Time‐and‐Materials: IT professionals are billed by the hour with expenses. They are assured of being paid for their time, regardless of how long the project takes or for an ongoing project. Client has the freedom to change the specifications of the project or to add new components, as it is understood that such changes will incur more time on the project and hence, a higher invoice. The disadvantages come when the consultant bills too many hours and exceeds the client's budget. This can cause friction between the two if the budget runs out before the contract is completed. Fixed Price Project: A fixed price contract is ideal when the client requires work that can be provided with a quick turnaround built/implemented/maintained from pre‐existing templates, where much of the work may have already been completed (in terms of requirement gathering) prior to landing the contract. Likewise, a client‐vendor may prefer a fixed price contract because it is easier to set a budget for such projects. However, a fixed price contract can be an issue when the consultant and client do not come to a detailed agreement on what the work will include. Exhibit 2: Is FPP actually a high risk for IT Services providers? Buyer Low Risk High Risk FPP T&M Cost Plus Provider High Risk Low Risk Source: PL Research September 26, 2014 2
  • 3. Information Technology Exhibit 3: Parameters comparison – The business model Time & Material (T&M) Fixed Price (FP) Flexibility to balance team size and workloads Requirement & Project due dates clear Optimising the cost and time lines Control the project budget Project model tailored to clients’ requirement Planning, schedule & deliverable clear Increase or decrease the pricing and resources Based on active and mutual consent Source: PL Research Exhibit 4: T&M: Profitability stabilizes as project reaches steady‐state US$ Revenue Cost Profit Time Source: PL Research Exhibit 5: FPP: A steady improvement in profitability during tenure US$ Revenue Cost Profit Time Source: PL Research FPP – How it scores over T&M? Busting myths! Myth 1: T&M pricing protects IT Companies if they exceed their estimate. Fact: If IT Companies exceed their estimate, even with a T&M pricing model, their client will fight with them tooth and nail over the overage, even small overages (This is even more true in today’s world of tightened budgets). Often clients will refuse to pay above the estimate, forcing IT Companies into a compromise. Moreover, getting new business from this client will be substantially harder next time. Myth 2: With T&M, IT Companies don’t need a change control process. Fact: IT Companies will need to show hard evidence explaining why their estimates were wrong. The only evidence worth anything is the change control documents signed by clients that clearly outline the cost of change in T&M. In FPP, clients have less control over the process maturity, but any change in control processes escalated by clients is associated with the cost. Myth 3: With T&M, the client benefits if IT Companies are under their estimate. Fact: IT Companies will simply not leave money on the table. The Change Requests (CR) initiated normally takes longer to get incorporated and even longer if the projects are running ahead of schedule. Any successful execution of projects within time are generally rewarded by more contracts. September 26, 2014 3
  • 4. Information Technology Myth 4: Incompetency in IT Companies’ ability to accurately estimate is a good reason to choose T&M Fact: Unless IT Companies are upfront with their client about their inability to estimate a project, choosing T&M is unethical. The companies are run by professionals; they sold themselves as experts with statements like “We’ve done this kind of stuff a hundred times before!” If they cannot properly estimate a project, they have no right to call themselves experts on the subject matter. If they would never tell their prospective clients the real reasons why they are proposing T&M, their reason for choosing T&M is simply not valid and likely unethical. They did the estimates, they are the expert and it’s their job to know how long it will take and what problems may arise. Myth 5: Double their estimate, just to be safe. Fact: This myth comes in many varieties, which can range from adding 15% to quadrupling their estimate. The truth is, doubling their estimate will simply make their bid uncompetitive (or unrealistic) and they will lose the contract to a competitor. Currently, the market is heavily contested by Large MNCs, Indian Heritage Vendors and Niche players. Myth 6: Developers don’t need to know the pricing model. Fact: Everyone on the team needs to know the pricing model as it affects every decision involving billed effort which the team makes. Who is paying for the effort is always a factor in such decisions. Myth 7: Risk is bad Fact: Risk is an opportunity to make (or lose) money. It’s neither good nor bad. Successful IT Companies will stay above the Companies stuck with T&M model. They can easily earn more just by accepting the risk associated with their own estimate. Pricing pressure – An inevitable waiting to happen The great financial crisis of 2008 has had a significant impact on the spending pattern of the corporate. While the most immediate and pressing impact of the financial crisis has been the lack of readily available credit, it is expected that its mid and long‐term effects will still be felt in the timing of economic recovery and in high unemployment rates in many countries. During the crisis, new investments were postponed or scaled back, as investors became more cautious. Moreover, IT companies operators came under further price pressure for their services as consumers’ purchasing power diminished. September 26, 2014 4
  • 5. Information Technology Exhibit 6: Blended Realization (QoQ gr.) (A proxy for pricing): More troughs 3% 0% ‐3% ‐6% TCS Infosys Q1FY09 Q2FY09 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Source: Company Data, PL Research The economic downturn posed challenges on the spending turn squeezing the client budget. Indian IT Companies have seized the opportunity to offer an effective pricing pragmatism through Fixed Price Model. Exhibit 7: HCL Tech and Wipro: Strongest improvement in FPP projects 60% 52% 44% 36% 28% 20% Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech Q3FY06 Q1FY07 Q3FY07 Q1FY08 Q3FY08 Q1FY09 Q3FY09 Q1FY10 Q3FY10 Q1FY11 Q3FY11 Q1FY12 Q3FY12 Q1FY13 Q3FY13 Q1FY14 Q3FY14 Q1FY15 Source: Company Data, PL Research September 26, 2014 5
  • 6. Information Technology Why clients will push for FPPs over T&M? Indian IT companies have been driving towards FPPs over the last few years. The overarching concerns on pricing has been mitigated partially by undertaking (or migrating to) FPP. Moreover, there has been push from the clients also for FPP. We highlight two reasons of FPP drive:  To test the potential of IT Companies, clients ask for fixed‐price proposal: By asking for FPP, clients tell IT Companies that vendors have not yet "proven" their capabilities to clients, which puts clients at risk of not receiving an adequate solution. To reduce that risk, clients want IT Companies to demonstrate that IT vendors understand clients’ unique problem fully by providing clients with a proposed solution. IT Companies proposed solution must have a sound scientific basis that will lead to a reliable and reproducible product. IT Companies must provide clients with a detailed technical explanation of their proposed solution's operation principles, along with calculations that demonstrate IT companies have considered and accounted for the deleterious effects of all tolerances, parasitic parameters, variations of parameters with ambient conditions and aging and so on.  Risk of failure in a tight schedule: A potential client's project schedule is too tight to take a chance that IT companies might fail, requiring the client to find another vendor to do the job over. The client wants IT Companies to remove that schedule risk by demonstrating conclusively that their proposed solution will meet the requirements. Is T&M all that bad? We do not see the death of T&M business model in the near future. IT Companies working at cutting/bleeding edge of technology has to work with various unknowns. We see the less likelihood of adoption of FPP in projects where initial deliverables are uncertain example Application Development, SMAC etc. Need for Flexibility in a World of Unknowns/ Insufficient data to properly estimate it: In a new software development, it rarely happens that features and functionality of the new software are known upfront. Even with the best written RFP, there are many unknowns that need to flushed out. Clients’ projects are complex and it is nearly impossible to understand all the facets of the projects at the beginning. Our industry sources indicated that clients would know 60‐80% of what they want to build when they provide an estimate. That’s a lot of uncertainty! In a FPP, deliverables are agreed upon upfront and there is little flexibility with regard to changing features. Any change in a feature set requires an “engineering change order”/”Change Request” (CO/CR) and additional funds are approved. In some cases, changes are permitted without additional funds. However, in these cases, it’s only because the original estimate had so much “fat” that the change can be absorbed. September 26, 2014 6
  • 7. Information Technology In T&M, IT Companies keep a close eye on the pulse of the project, the budget and the needs of our clients. They discuss the changes, they look at the budget and determine priority of the features relative to budget and time constraints. Often, features that the client thought they needed are no longer important and can be postponed for future release. As such, new features can often be added without impacting the budget. Need for Total Transparency/ Clients want to take part in the project in any way: Clients deserve full transparency with regard to project expenses. A firm fixed price contract will not provide any transparency, IT Companies will not know if a task took two hours to build or 20 hours. Clients are constantly wondering if they paid too much. In most cases, clients probably did because the financial risk is 100% on the side of the contractors; IT vendors need to inflate their bid to cover their financial risk. In a T&M project, clients have full transparency on how their budget is being spent. There is no guessing as to how many hours a task cost: It’s right there in the invoice! If client is providing resources (i.e. internal developers or another vendor is participating that the client is managing) or if IT Companies are working on site, vendor should go T&M. IT Companies should not be held accountable for the performance of client’s resources, where IT Companies are obligated to ensure they succeed. Chances are high that IT Companies will wind up performing this work in its entirety, while fearing to tell the client that his trusted employees are incompetent. T&M is not a Blank Check, Process is the Key: A major misconception is that a T&M based project is like having a blank check for the IT vendors. IT Companies’ initial estimate is clients’ project budget. They develop in multiple iterations and at the end of each iterations, the project is in a working, testable state. They repeat this process until the project is ready for final testing and release. This allows them to have meaningful conversations with their clients around features, budget and time. They have the flexibility to adjust features as priorities shift or as allowed by the budget. They have the flexibility to make adjustments that are the best for the project and stay within budget. Conclusion – There are merits in T&M projects as well FPP works best when the clients and IT companies work the best when the deliverables are well‐known and understood up front, when there is little need for flexibility and changes to the deliverables. The challenges of FPP multiply manifold when clients want their IT vendor to build custom software application. We believe in the development of software applications need flexible process, which allows for change. September 26, 2014 7
  • 8. Information Technology Exhibit 8: Parameters comparison – The business model Parameters Fixed Price (FP) Time & Material (T&M) Requirements Clear Evolving Enhancements Additional cost and time, deviation in project plan  Flexibility in Projects Task & Schedule   Resource Selection   Cost Effective ‐ (Expensive: if requirements not clear) ‐ (Expensive: if project deadline overrun) Customized Report   Project Task   Work Load   Idle Time   Progress   Source: PL Research TCS: Stable on FPP, Wipro and HCL Tech: Maximum increase in FPP Contrary to the popular belief about the FPPs, TCS’ contribution from FPP has stayed largely stable over the last eight years. According to TCS’ management commentary, the clients drive for FPP depending on the project types. Infosys has offered limited colour on their initiatives for FPPs. The company continues to have the lowest contribution from FPP. One possible reason for the same could be their higher contribution from discretionary portfolio. As we have examined earlier in the note, the higher discretionary contribution restricts the scope of FPP in the portfolio. Wipro and HCL Tech have driven their FPPs migration the strongest among peers. The management is more vocal on their initiative to drive their projects toward FPPs. Exhibit 9: Wipro and HCL Tech: Maximum increase in FPP contracts. TCS had minimum 790 bps Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 180 bps 1170 bps ‐510 bps 510 bps 160 bps 1480 bps 1400 bps 3090 bps 880 bps 1890 bps 2910 bps 3300 bps 2650 bps 2000 bps 1350 bps 700 bps 50 bps ‐600 bps (Dec‐05 to Dec‐08) (Mar‐09 to Jun‐14) (Dec‐05 to Jun‐14) Source: Company Data, PL Research September 26, 2014 8
  • 9. Information Technology HCL Tech – Benefitted maximum from the FPP drive We are over‐simplifying our analysis by attributing the margin expansion only to FPP. Improvement in HCL Tech’s EBITDA margin has been maximum over the last five years, in‐line with their increased FPP which could be attributed to strong growth in IMS (contributed ~75% of incremental revenue over the last five years). HCL Tech managed to improve their EBITDA margin by ~500bps since Mar‐09 due to increase in FPP contribution by near ~1900bps. The company currently has the highest contribution from FPP, leaving limited room for another uptick in margin. We see pricing renegotiation of older FPP contracts at lower price, resulting in mean reversion. However, TCS has the most balanced approach among the peers keeping their FPP contribution slowly creeping up and investing in efficiencies and process yielding increase in operating margin. We expect TCS to stand benefitted during renewal cycle of the contracts. Wipro and Infosys struggled to keep pace with margin expansion with improvement in FPPs. Challenges for Infosys are linked to shrinkages in their pricing premium over the last few years. However, Wipro could not manage to keep pace with the industry growth and got impacted by rising costs. Exhibit 10: Strong operating margin improvement by HCL Tech over last 5 years 35% 31% 27% 23% 19% 15% Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech Q4FY06 Q2FY07 Q4FY07 Q2FY08 Q4FY08 Q2FY09 Q4FY09 Q2FY10 Q4FY10 Q2FY11 Q4FY11 Q2FY12 Q4FY12 Q2FY13 Q4FY13 Q2FY14 Q4FY14 Source: Company Data, PL Research September 26, 2014 9
  • 10. Information Technology Exhibit 11: TCS EBITDA margin improvement linked to operational efficiency 500 bps Infosys TCS Wipro HCL Tech 198 bps ‐700 bps 336 bps 37 bps ‐661 bps ‐480 bps 405 bps 179 bps ‐382 bps 124 bps ‐38 bps 22 bps 499 bps 200 bps ‐100 bps ‐400 bps (Mar‐06 to Dec‐08) (Mar‐09 to Jun‐14) (Mar‐06 to Jun‐14) Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 12: TCS (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Clients drive to FPP Q1FY15 Fixed price engagement is a key lever in terms of costs and also mix or realization Q2FY14 Q: Unbilled revenues have gone up in the past 10 quarters but FPP has not changed. One need to look at UBR minus UER as a metric because that gives you a better picture and if you look at that last two quarters that has been increasing, previous two quarters it was decreasing. And the overall trend is more a reflection of the nature of contracts and the size of contracts rather than just T&M versus Turnkey. When product‐based or asset leverage‐based projects kick in, those tend to have a different billing profile. So it is not just a difference between T&M and FPP. Q3FY13 Fixed price engagements require a higher level of productivity. TCS has seen fixed price projects go up by 50bps. So does that mean that the company is going to be driven by higher fixed price or some other measures? S. Mahalingam: No, it will not be purely fixed price. N. Chandrasekaran: We also have to operate based on what the customers want. It is not something that we decide, frankly. Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 13: Infosys (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Not much commentary on FPP Q2FY13 Post Sales Supports are provisions which Infosys makes on all fixed prices contracts. The trend in last few quarters, the write‐off in this space is much lower. These are all conservative estimates the company makes on certain FPPs. It will get reversed in the future period if they are able to run it more elegantly. Source: Company Data, PL Research September 26, 2014 10
  • 11. Information Technology Exhibit 14: Wipro (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Gains on margins due to FPP Q3FY14 Wipro’s FPP percentage remains pretty high. So to that extent, whatever money the company makes out of automation and everything else, they keep the gains as margin gains. Second is on T&M projects again, Wipro believes that ultimately what the customers look for is end‐to‐end, cost of the value that they get on an end‐to‐end project. Q4FY13 48% is FPP and within that, 48%, especially in the area of Wipro’s technology infrastructure services and some of the applications, directionally, the company is moving towards more and more outcome‐based results as well as the BPO. Q3FY13 The key driver for increase in price realization this quarter was the benefit of the productivity gain that Wipro is able to get, by implementing tools and automation and some of the productivity techniques into their FPP and that has been the driver for the overall realization uptick. Q2FY13 A lot of the realization improvement has been achieved during the quarter due to driving revenue productivity and fixed‐price contracts which will have a negative impact on volume. Despite the impact of additional two months of salary increase, continued investment in sales and marketing, utilization drop and FOREX impact, margin impact was limited to 30bps through significant improvement in revenue productivity and other operational parameters. Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 15: HCL Tech (Management’s Commentary on FPP): Strong initiative to FPP Q4FY14 Managed Services and FPP were about 50‐50 till about two years back; however, they have moved up to 52 in FPP last year and now 56% of the portfolio in FY14. Revenue per employee within HCL today is a little over US$61,000 or US$62,000 per employee which is significantly higher than the industry average. And one reason is non‐linearity and the FPP/Managed Services construct. Q3FY14 Most of the rebid market that HCL Tech bids is Managed Services or FPP. Q1FY14 Ratio of FPP, Managed Services and outcome base is increasing since FY11 that is helping HCL Tech to decide the most optimal way to run the operations. Q4FY13 HCL Tech continues to increase the amount of their revenue that comes from Managed Service or Fixed Price Revenue Models which allows the company to move to more into low cost locations. This dampens the top‐line growth but enhances company’s margin deliveries. Q2FY13 With respect to the question on leaves and furloughs, the company has limited exposure there, because a lot of their engagements have moved significantly into FPP and managed services model and therefore, the company is really not dependant on that construct. Source: Company Data, PL Research September 26, 2014 11
  • 12. Information Technology Top picks – TCS, Infosys and Wipro There is no eventual winning billing model. Challenges on the macro front pushes for cost cognizance. Hence, FPP offers a solution for matured services or challenging business environment, whereas, a conducive business environment implies the takeoff of more green‐field development projects which may push for T&M model. We see a swift transition to FPP accompanied by margin expansion as a risk because it would expose the company to the risk of mean reversal in renegotiation. We continue to see similar risk for HCL Tech. However, TCS, Infosys and Wipro still have room for exploiting that opportunity. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ recommendation on TCS, Infosys and Wipro and ‘Accumulate’ on HCL Tech. Exhibit 16: TCS 16.2 32.0 28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research Exhibit 17: Infosys 16.9 32.0 28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research Exhibit 18: Wipro 1‐Yr Forward PER Average PER 13.7 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research Exhibit 19: HCL Tech 1‐Yr. Forward PER Average PER 11.6x 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Sep‐08 Sep‐09 Sep‐10 Sep‐11 Sep‐12 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, PL Research September 26, 2014 12
  • 13. Information Technology Appendix Other non‐linear pricing models We have ignored the discussion on other non‐linear pricing model to keep discussion lucid and simple. Among, the other widely used pricing models that Indian IT companies offer are Hybrid Model, Managed Service Model, Outcome Based Model, Transaction Based Model. Non‐linear pricing models decouple the relationship between time and material (effort and rate). Normally, T&M and FP do not offer much scope for modification and changes. Service providers have realized the need to be flexible to satisfy their customers. This has led to innovations in pricing models that suit varying needs. Some non‐linear pricing models are mentioned below Hybrid Model: The hybrid model uses T&M techniques to estimate costs for projects that do not have clear‐cut goals or detailed and complete requirements initially. It then allows customers to pay a fixed price based on the estimation. This hybrid pricing model has the best features of both the models – T&M and FP, as mentioned above. It allows service providers to deploy resources as in the T&M model, but most of the project is executed according to the FP model. Hence, the project has a smooth workflow and well‐aligned processes. Hybrid is the best pricing model for bigger, longer and ongoing projects with unclear objectives at the start. Here input and feedback is needed in the beginning, but delivery can be perfected over time to ensure that all customer requirements are successfully met. This model is a great middle ground for professionals who like hourly payments and customers who prefer to make a one‐time payment for the project. The hybrid pricing model helps customers optimize budgets without compromising on the quality of product or application. It also gives the service provider a controlled environment with shared risks in operations. Exhibit 20: Pros‐Cons of Hybrid Model Pros Cons Utilizes the best features of both the T&M and FP pricing models Customer has no control in resource utilization and maximum ownership is with service providers Middle ground for the customers amongst hourly payment and one‐time payment Shared risks between service provider and customer Helps the customer to optimize the budget without compromising on the quality of deliverables Low risk model for both service provider and customer Knowledge retention Source: PL Research September 26, 2014 13
  • 14. Information Technology Managed Services Model: The managed services model offers defined service deliverables at a fixed cost. Traditionally, value was realized according to how well it was managed by the service provider, and how well it was perceived by the customer. This was more qualitative in nature. In the managed services model on the other hand, the value‐add is quantitatively measured in terms of target Service Level Agreements (SLAs). This is based on clearly defined parameters in project performance and quality. Customers are billed at a fixed monthly cost plus unit cost per additional unit delivered. For customers, the model helps them arrive at a predictable budget. For service providers, it assures continuous fixed revenue, plus additional revenue through scalability and better margins through repetition. Mutually agreed SLAs will be met, unless the service provider wishes to pay a penalty. If the service provider meets / exceeds all agreed SLAs they are monetarily rewarded, as per the contract. Some key features of the managed services model:  The service provider takes end‐to‐end responsibility of set service lines and deliverables  The service provider makes the decisions and takes the responsibility to provide the agreed set of deliverables  Budgets are mostly fixed for the entire piece of work, making it more like a fixed price managed services engagement. In this case, the service provider has a free hand in deciding how, where and with how many personnel the project can be delivered. The risk associated with such an approach is that the service provider may decide to allocate shared resources, which could result in delivery issues  This model is often adopted when work can be clearly scoped out, with clearly marked deliverables  For this model to work, the service provider should have an excellent understanding of the customer’s systems. The customer in turn should be confident enough to hand over work to the service provider  The customer’s role is that of a reviewer with the additional responsibility of contracts management and budget tracking  The service provider will be responsible for selection of resources as well as managing stakeholder expectations  There will be clearly marked SLAs for each deliverable, with penalties applicable for non‐delivery September 26, 2014 14
  • 15. Information Technology  Delivery of service can be performed onshore at the client location, offshore or a combination of both  A managed services model is often adopted by enterprises as a continuation of an existing staff augmentation. Adopting a managed services model from day one comes with lots of risks. Exhibit 21: Pros‐Cons of Managed Service Model Pros Cons Since delivery and stakeholder expectations are the service provider’s responsibility, the customer can focus fully on their core strategic initiatives Service providers are sometimes reluctant to assume more management responsibilities Service providers are more independent and have a relatively interference‐free management of the project Culture mismatch between the customer and service provider can result in a lack of understanding, which may affect deliverables Enables service providers to make long‐term strategic investments that should indirectly benefit the customer Sometimes, service providers don’t have a view of the scope of the project or may not understand all of the customer’s pain points, which could result in major setbacks Service providers bring their best practices into the project, thereby making key process improvements In a multi‐service provider scenario, where for instance one provider manages applications and the other, infrastructure, blame games are common, with no‐one willing to assume responsibility SLA driven approach results in key process improvements delivering significant, measurable benefits to the customer Re‐allocation of the contract, in case of performance issues or non‐conformance of SLAs, might be a challenge, given that the existing service provider will be less cooperative Knowledge retention becomes more streamlined and sustainable Source: PL Research Outcome‐Based Pricing Model: Outcome‐driven solutions are pin‐pointed and positioned as delivering specific value to the business. Outcome‐based projects aim to deliver measurable impact on the customer’s overall business results. The basic philosophy is to align the interests of the service provider and the customer so that both work towards the same goal. In this model, the scope is the business outcome itself. Clearly defined and fixed outcomes which can be measured and delivered for a given project is critical to its success. In an outcome‐based model, resource loading, costing and pricing is a complicated exercise. The mechanism for paying the service provider varies. But generally the payment is made in made in one lump sum when the result is achieved or over shorter milestones, so that the service provider recoups its investment in time. The three key elements of an outcomes‐driven project are:  The service provider cannot earn a direct revenue from the customer unless the work outcome delivers value to the customer September 26, 2014 15
  • 16. Information Technology  The scope of work impacts a large chunk of the process that influences a business outcome, and service provider can adjust / tweak some elements of the process to impact the business outcome  Service providers need to develop competences to tightly define the scope of an outcome‐based project to be successful The primary driver of outcome‐based pricing is the process characteristics, and scope of engagement with the customer. As a rule of thumb, if a process directly impacts measurable business outcome like revenue or cost, the service provider should explore a business outcome‐based pricing. More so if there are enough opportunities to impact the business outcome. However, the thing to remember is whether the scope of work covers the majority of elements that drive a particular outcome. In outcome‐based projects, service providers control a significant portion of the value chain affecting outcomes, even when they are not directly under the service provider’s control. Hence, bringing into your sphere of influence things not under your influence is a critical part of the execution model. This is where partnership with other service providers, even competitors, will be a critical factor in success. In this model, the customer gets rewarded by converting a fixed cost into a truly variable cost model that scales with the business. It frees up client executives from worrying about issues like technology, process and people, and allows them to focus on business outcomes – things that really matter to the business. The customer carries no risk since they pay only when they get the desired outcome. By having a standardized definition of input and output in an outcomes‐driven model, services become more like products. In an outcome‐based model, service providers bet on the customer and vice versa, to make success happen. Risk transfers from customer to service provider, the model progresses from T&M to outcome‐based. The service provider should account for transference of risk and cover by including a risk premium in the price. The risk premium increases as you progress through these models and results in increasing margins for the service provider. The ability to measure risk and charge the appropriate risk premium is a critical factor in the service provider’s success. Exhibit 22: Pros‐Cons of Outcome Based Model Pros Cons Directly aligned to the customer’s business outcome Lack of transparency in how work is performed Potential for higher eventual savings as labor arbitrage is replaced by productivity and synergies between tasks Little insight into cost of services Ability to incent more innovative behavior from service provider Cultural resistance from both customer and service provider Deep appreciation of the customer’s business model, operations and industry nuances Customer enterprises are sometimes too immature to appreciate the change management process Source: PL Research September 26, 2014 16
  • 17. Information Technology Transaction Pricing Model: A transaction is a sequence of steps with defined input and output, which achieves a business purpose. Examples of transactions include invoice or payroll processing. A transaction unit is a unit of measure with which a transaction can be measured. Examples of transaction units are ‘per pay slip’ or ‘per invoice’, etc. A transaction price is typically quoted as ‘price per transaction unit’. It is generally mentioned as applicable for a specified transaction volume range. The transaction‐based pricing model is based on the number of transactions processed. Typically a base price is provided for a specified volume band, with a negotiated increase or decrease in price as usage fluctuates around the specified band. In this model, the scope becomes very important. The scope is also slightly different from conventional projects and should be defined more tightly. The volume of transactions and the variations in volume in a day, week, month or months make a huge impact on pricing and effort. Another important scope element is the form of input. Whether the input is electronic, paper form, integrated into xml, importable or already imported can have a huge impact on the cost. Any change in the assumption of proportion of the two forms of applications could make a huge effort and cost difference for the service provider. In this model, service providers take on a higher risk. They take on risks related to the volume of business, as the pricing is based on certain volume assumptions. Change or variation in the volume can have can have a dramatic impact on their cost. Exhibit 23: Pros‐Cons of Transaction Based Model Pros Cons Closely tied to the customer’s business cycle May not be directly tied to the customer’s business outcome Enhances customer visibility into consumption pattern Lack of transparency on how work is performed Encourages productivity and efficiency Source: PL Research September 26, 2014 17
  • 18. Information Technology Which pricing model suits a given engagement? The pricing model need not be intelligent enough to address the customer’s budget objectives, but has to suit the respective customer engagement. IT engagements spread from discovery and definition types to implementation, maintenance and support. The pricing model that worked for one type of engagement may or may not work for another. It is also possible that a pricing model that suits one client may not suit another. Naturally, assessing the best possible pricing model for a customer or an engagement sometimes requires a trial. Exhibit 24: Which pricing model suits a given engagement? Hybrid model Best pricing model for bigger, longer and ongoing projects, which may need inputs in the beginning but can be perfected over time Service provider is engaging with the customer for the first time Both service provider and customer want to mitigate the risks of T&M and FP pricing models Managed services model Work clearly scoped out, with clearly marked out deliverables Service provider has an excellent understanding of the customer’s systems. The customer in turn is confident enough to hand over the work to them Outcome‐based pricing model Clearly defined output Output aligning to business process or where direct impact can be defined For customers who want to align the service provider’s goals with their business goals Transaction‐based pricing model Transaction volumes are known and predictable From the customer’s perspective, this model is used for business process which can be clearly defined, measured in discrete units Transaction volume are tied to the service provider’s cost drivers For the service provider’s perspective, this model is used in business process that are standardized, transaction intensive and demand‐driven Source: PL Research September 26, 2014 18
  • 19. Information Technology Tata Consultancy Services BUY CMP: Rs2,709 TP: Rs2,900 Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Revenue 629,895 818,094 963,409 1,135,703 Raw Material Expenses 339,245 430,645 516,286 616,404 Gross Profit 290,650 387,449 447,123 519,299 Employee Cost — — — — Other Expenses 109,779 135,878 159,344 186,836 EBITDA 180,872 251,570 287,779 332,463 Depr. & Amortization 10,792 13,492 15,864 19,316 Net Interest (10,722) (13,789) (11,593) (12,021) Other Income 11,881 16,613 21,858 24,286 Profit before Tax 181,960 254,691 293,773 337,433 Total Tax 40,345 60,712 68,155 77,610 Profit after Tax 141,615 193,979 225,618 259,823 Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. (1,493) (2,090) (2,466) (2,915) Adj. PAT 140,122 191,889 223,152 256,908 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 1,957.2 1,958.7 1,958.7 1,958.7 EPS (Rs.) 71.6 98.0 113.9 131.2 Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E C/F from Operations 123,260 159,223 200,588 237,042 C/F from Investing (68,535) (108,729) (38,536) (45,428) C/F from Financing (7,115) 75,531 (66,545) (74,432) Inc. / Dec. in Cash 47,610 126,024 95,507 117,182 Opening Cash 19,936 18,432 144,907 240,414 Closing Cash 67,546 144,907 240,414 357,596 FCFF 70,004 156,027 159,586 188,698 FCFE 70,160 155,990 159,586 188,698 Key Financial Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Growth Revenue (%) 28.8 29.9 17.8 17.9 EBITDA (%) 25.4 39.1 14.4 15.5 PAT (%) 31.0 36.9 16.3 15.1 EPS (%) 31.0 36.8 16.3 15.1 Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 28.7 30.8 29.9 29.3 PAT Margin (%) 22.2 23.5 23.2 22.6 RoCE (%) 38.1 39.8 33.8 30.8 RoE (%) 38.1 39.9 35.3 31.9 Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (0.2) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — Valuation PER (x) 37.8 27.6 23.8 20.7 P / B (x) 12.9 9.6 7.4 5.9 EV / EBITDA (x) 28.9 20.5 17.6 14.9 EV / Sales (x) 8.3 6.3 5.3 4.4 Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate 22.2 23.8 23.2 23.0 Other Inc / PBT 6.5 6.5 7.4 7.2 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.6 FCFE / PAT 50.1 81.3 71.5 73.4 Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Shareholder's Funds 409,560 553,352 712,425 897,817 Total Debt 1,310 1,273 1,273 1,273 Other Liabilities 20,340 23,749 23,749 23,749 Total Liabilities 431,209 578,374 737,447 922,839 Net Fixed Assets 81,943 103,644 126,316 152,428 Goodwill 35,063 41,568 41,568 41,568 Investments 20,404 34,489 34,489 34,489 Net Current Assets 215,841 307,363 443,764 603,044 Cash & Equivalents 67,546 144,907 240,414 357,596 Other Current Assets 237,821 273,208 348,377 410,773 Current Liabilities 89,526 110,752 145,027 165,325 Other Assets 77,959 91,309 91,309 91,309 Total Assets 431,209 578,374 737,447 922,839 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Net Revenue 209,772 212,940 215,511 221,110 EBITDA 66,390 66,866 66,559 62,324 % of revenue 31.6 31.4 30.9 28.2 Depr. & Amortization 3,095 3,519 3,749 4,175 Net Interest (3,094) (3,095) (4,420) (4,993) Other Income (230) 6,870 6,756 8,237 Profit before Tax 63,065 70,076 69,881 66,300 Total Tax 15,563 16,524 16,313 15,312 Profit after Tax 51,441 53,140 53,048 50,578 Adj. PAT 51,441 53,140 53,048 50,578 Key Operating Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Volume (persons month) 2,244,506 2,498,135 2,947,799 3,484,299 Pricing (US$ / Hr) 33.4 35.0 35.5 35.9 Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.9 59.8 59.0 SW Devp. Cost (% of Sales) 53.9 52.6 53.6 54.3 SG&A (% of Sales) 17.4 16.6 16.5 16.5 Revenue (US$ m) 11,568 13,443 16,124 19,249 EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (78) 204 122 (237) Tax Rate (%) 22.3 23.9 23.2 23.0 Source: Company Data, PL Research. September 26, 2014 19
  • 20. Information Technology Infosys BUY CMP: Rs3,691 TP: Rs4,040 Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Revenue 403,520 501,330 538,365 606,727 Raw Material Expenses 241,510 307,670 324,928 368,905 Gross Profit 162,010 193,660 213,437 237,822 Employee Cost — — — — Other Expenses 46,430 59,510 65,404 73,478 EBITDA 115,580 134,150 148,033 164,344 Depr. & Amortization 11,290 13,740 9,762 10,864 Net Interest — — — — Other Income 23,590 26,690 30,370 33,145 Profit before Tax 127,880 147,100 168,641 186,625 Total Tax 33,670 40,620 46,376 50,389 Profit after Tax 94,210 106,480 122,265 136,236 Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — — Adj. PAT 94,210 106,480 122,265 136,236 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 572.0 572.0 572.0 572.0 EPS (Rs.) 164.7 186.2 213.7 238.2 Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E C/F from Operations 94,780 121,870 102,114 133,346 C/F from Investing (50,510) (50,030) (22,073) (24,876) C/F from Financing (31,860) (30,660) (37,127) (39,983) Inc. / Dec. in Cash 12,410 41,180 42,914 68,487 Opening Cash 205,910 218,320 259,500 302,414 Closing Cash 218,320 259,500 302,414 370,902 FCFF 79,600 100,820 80,041 108,470 FCFE 79,600 100,820 80,041 108,470 Key Financial Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Growth Revenue (%) 19.6 24.2 7.4 12.7 EBITDA (%) 7.9 16.1 10.3 11.0 PAT (%) 13.3 13.0 14.8 11.4 EPS (%) 13.3 13.0 14.8 11.4 Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 28.6 26.8 27.5 27.1 PAT Margin (%) 23.3 21.2 22.7 22.5 RoCE (%) 25.6 24.3 23.5 22.3 RoE (%) 25.7 24.4 23.6 22.4 Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — Valuation PER (x) 22.4 19.8 17.3 15.5 P / B (x) 5.3 4.4 3.8 3.2 EV / EBITDA (x) 16.4 13.8 12.2 10.6 EV / Sales (x) 4.7 3.7 3.4 2.9 Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate 26.3 27.6 27.5 27.0 Other Inc / PBT 18.4 18.1 18.0 17.8 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 10.6 10.2 6.3 6.0 FCFE / PAT 84.5 94.7 65.5 79.6 Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Shareholder's Funds 397,970 475,300 560,438 656,692 Total Debt — — — — Other Liabilities 2,680 3,870 3,870 3,870 Total Liabilities 400,650 479,170 564,308 660,562 Net Fixed Assets 64,680 78,870 91,181 105,193 Goodwill 23,440 24,990 24,990 24,990 Investments 17,390 32,710 32,710 32,710 Net Current Assets 272,880 306,100 378,927 461,169 Cash & Equivalents 218,320 259,500 302,414 370,902 Other Current Assets 117,420 137,980 169,622 191,160 Current Liabilities 62,860 91,380 93,109 100,893 Other Assets 22,260 36,500 36,500 36,500 Total Assets 400,650 479,170 564,308 660,562 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Net Revenue 129,650 130,260 128,750 127,700 EBITDA 31,710 36,200 36,410 34,410 % of revenue 24.5 27.8 28.3 26.9 Depr. & Amortization 3,340 3,610 3,600 2,300 Net Interest — — — — Other Income 5,100 7,310 8,510 8,290 Profit before Tax 33,470 39,900 41,320 40,400 Total Tax 9,400 11,150 11,400 11,540 Profit after Tax 24,070 28,750 29,920 28,860 Adj. PAT 24,070 28,750 29,920 28,860 Key Operating Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Volume (persons month) 1,236,844 1,367,759 1,442,986 1,630,574 Pricing (US$ / Hr) 34 34 35 36 Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.8 59.8 59.0 SW Devp. Cost (% of sales) 59.9 61.4 60.4 60.8 SG&A (% of sales) 11.5 11.9 12.1 12.1 Revenue (US$ m) 7,398 8,249 9,010 10,284 EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (312.3) (188.4) 73.8 (41.0) Tax Rate (%) 26.3 27.5 27.5 27.0 Source: Company Data, PL Research. September 26, 2014 20
  • 21. Information Technology Wipro BUY CMP: Rs583 TP: Rs680 Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Revenue 374,256 434,269 488,922 545,933 Raw Material Expenses 260,665 295,488 331,108 368,523 Gross Profit 113,591 138,781 157,815 177,410 Employee Cost — — — — Other Expenses 35,410 41,680 45,778 51,508 EBITDA 78,181 97,101 112,036 125,903 Depr. & Amortization 10,835 11,106 12,814 13,006 Net Interest — 52 — — Other Income 11,250 15,062 14,775 19,327 Profit before Tax 78,596 101,005 113,998 132,224 Total Tax 16,912 22,601 25,079 29,089 Profit after Tax 61,684 78,404 88,918 103,134 Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — 62 200 100 Adj. PAT 61,684 78,394 88,718 103,034 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 2,463.0 2,466.0 2,466.0 2,466.0 EPS (Rs.) 25.0 31.8 36.0 41.8 Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E C/F from Operations 70,422 67,895 112,053 111,858 C/F from Investing (53,410) (2,774) (14,668) (16,378) C/F from Financing (9,840) (35,041) (22,093) (22,093) Inc. / Dec. in Cash 7,172 30,080 75,292 73,387 Opening Cash 77,666 84,121 114,201 189,493 Closing Cash 84,838 114,201 189,493 262,880 FCFF 109,865 45,262 97,385 95,480 FCFE 88,209 55,317 97,385 95,480 Key Financial Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Growth Revenue (%) 17.4 16.0 12.6 11.7 EBITDA (%) 17.2 24.2 15.4 12.4 PAT (%) 17.3 27.1 13.2 16.1 EPS (%) 17.1 26.9 13.2 16.1 Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9 22.4 22.9 23.1 PAT Margin (%) 16.5 18.1 18.1 18.9 RoCE (%) 20.5 24.2 22.6 22.1 RoE (%) 21.7 25.0 23.5 22.9 Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (2) (6) 7 6 Valuation PER (x) 23.3 18.3 16.2 13.9 P / B (x) 5.1 4.2 3.5 2.9 EV / EBITDA (x) 17.3 13.7 11.2 9.4 EV / Sales (x) 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.2 Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate 21.5 22.4 22.0 22.0 Other Inc / PBT 14.3 14.9 13.0 14.6 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 10.7 9.8 10.0 9.0 FCFE / PAT 143.0 70.6 109.8 92.7 Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Shareholder's Funds 283,812 343,499 410,124 491,065 Total Debt 854 10,909 10,909 10,909 Other Liabilities 10,324 11,440 11,440 11,440 Total Liabilities 294,990 365,848 432,473 513,414 Net Fixed Assets 50,525 51,449 53,303 56,674 Goodwill 56,470 65,358 65,358 65,358 Investments 69,222 60,843 60,843 60,843 Net Current Assets 86,084 147,899 212,670 290,240 Cash & Equivalents 84,838 114,201 189,493 262,880 Other Current Assets 145,986 170,154 189,853 211,564 Current Liabilities 144,740 136,456 166,676 184,204 Other Assets 32,689 40,299 40,299 40,299 Total Assets 294,990 365,848 432,473 513,414 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Net Revenue 110,053 112,713 116,535 111,358 EBITDA 25,170 25,923 28,180 25,507 % of revenue 22.9 23.0 24.2 22.9 Depr. & Amortization 2,615 3,109 2,880 2,834 Net Interest — — — — Other Income 4,949 3,518 3,627 4,449 Profit before Tax 27,504 26,332 28,927 27,122 Total Tax 5,754 6,060 6,536 5,942 Profit after Tax 21,647 20,397 22,391 21,032 Adj. PAT 21,647 20,397 22,391 21,032 Key Operating Metrics Y/e March 2013 2014 2015E 2016E IT Svcs Revs ($ mn) 689,616 744,785 811,816 884,879 Pricing (US$ / Hr) 38.8 39.2 39.6 40.0 Currency (USDINR) 54.5 60.3 59.8 59.0 Sw. Devp. Cost (% of Sales) 69.6 68.0 67.7 67.5 SG&A (% of Sales) 9.5 9.6 9.4 9.4 Revenue (US$ m) 6,865 7,238 8,183 9,253 EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) (4.0) 147.0 55.5 14.7 Tax Rate (%) 21.5 22.4 22.0 22.0 Source: Company Data, PL Research. September 26, 2014 21
  • 22. Information Technology HCL Technologies Accumulate CMP: Rs1,708 TP: Rs1,750 Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Net Revenue 257,336 329,180 373,127 422,588 Raw Material Expenses 164,779 202,160 228,053 260,119 Gross Profit 92,557 127,020 145,074 162,469 Employee Cost — — — — Other Expenses 34,201 40,350 49,942 57,490 EBITDA 58,356 86,670 95,133 104,979 Depr. & Amortization 6,726 7,320 7,977 8,648 Net Interest — — — — Other Income 1,571 (160) 7,500 9,092 Profit before Tax 53,201 79,190 94,655 105,423 Total Tax 12,217 15,480 19,920 22,709 Profit after Tax 40,984 63,710 74,735 82,714 Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — — Adj. PAT 40,984 63,710 74,735 82,714 Avg. Shares O/S (m) 693.3 693.3 693.3 693.3 EPS (Rs.) 59.1 91.9 107.8 119.3 Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E C/F from Operations 47,188 65,063 63,299 86,620 C/F from Investing (25,455) (52,729) (13,806) (15,636) C/F from Financing (21,085) (11,885) (12,457) (15,246) Inc. / Dec. in Cash 648 449 37,036 55,738 Opening Cash 6,673 7,321 10,206 47,242 Closing Cash 7,321 10,206 47,242 102,980 FCFF 25,332 18,596 56,955 79,224 FCFE 13,070 19,145 56,955 79,224 Key Financial Metrics Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Growth Revenue (%) 22.4 27.9 13.4 13.3 EBITDA (%) 45.0 48.5 9.8 10.4 PAT (%) 62.2 55.5 17.3 10.7 EPS (%) 62.2 55.5 17.3 10.7 Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) 22.7 26.3 25.5 24.8 PAT Margin (%) 15.9 19.4 20.0 19.6 RoCE (%) 26.9 32.8 29.4 25.9 RoE (%) 32.8 37.1 32.1 27.6 Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity — — (0.1) (0.3) Net Wrkng Cap. (days) — — — — Valuation PER (x) 28.9 18.6 15.8 14.3 P / B (x) 8.3 5.9 4.5 3.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 20.3 13.6 12.0 10.4 EV / Sales (x) 4.6 3.6 3.1 2.6 Earnings Quality Eff. Tax Rate 23.0 19.5 21.0 21.5 Other Inc / PBT 3.0 (0.2) 7.9 8.6 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 24.7 23.3 21.1 19.1 FCFE / PAT 31.9 30.1 76.2 95.8 Source: Company Data, PL Research. Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Shareholder's Funds 142,908 200,814 265,092 334,561 Total Debt 6,960 7,509 7,509 7,509 Other Liabilities 15,151 14,615 12,615 10,615 Total Liabilities 165,019 222,938 285,216 352,685 Net Fixed Assets 27,283 31,465 37,808 45,203 Goodwill 49,581 51,492 50,977 50,569 Investments 541 156 156 156 Net Current Assets 65,226 116,363 172,813 233,294 Cash & Equivalents 7,321 10,206 47,242 102,980 Other Current Assets 123,328 188,123 213,486 229,883 Current Liabilities 65,423 81,966 87,915 99,569 Other Assets 22,389 23,462 23,462 23,462 Total Assets 165,020 222,938 285,216 352,685 Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e June Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15E Net Revenue 81,840 83,490 84,240 88,272 EBITDA 21,250 22,320 22,170 22,068 % of revenue 26.0 26.7 26.3 25.0 Depr. & Amortization 1,660 1,590 1,650 1,765 Net Interest — — — — Other Income (470) (70) 1,580 2,000 Profit before Tax 18,930 20,530 21,980 22,161 Total Tax 3,980 4,290 3,620 4,654 Profit after Tax 14,950 16,240 18,360 17,507 Adj. PAT 14,950 16,240 18,360 17,507 Key Operating Metrics Y/e June 2013 2014 2015E 2016E Volume (persons months) 500,637 562,716 614,486 703,586 Pricing (US$ / Hr) 35.3 37.1 37.7 38.2 Currency (INR/USD) 54.7 61.4 59.8 59.0 SW. Devp. Cost (% of sales) 64.0 61.4 61.1 61.6 SG&A (% of sales) 13.3 12.3 13.4 13.6 Revenue (US$ m) 4,686 5,360 6,245 7,163 EBITDA Margin Expansion/(Erosion) (bps) 354 365 (83) (65) Tax Rate (%) 23.0 19.5 21.0 21.5 Source: Company Data, PL Research. September 26, 2014 22
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  • 24. Information Technology Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 Rating Distribution of Research Coverage 30.7% 51.8% 17.5% 0.0% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell % of Total Coverage PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein. Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor. Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication. We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document. September 26, 2014 24