This document provides an analysis of Infinera Corporation (INFN). It discusses the optical networking industry and INFN's position within it. The company has opportunities to gain market share in long-haul, data center interconnect (DCI), and metro markets as infrastructure upgrades from 10G/40G to 100G. Three valuation cases are presented, with an upside target price of $36.93, base case of $18.00, and downside of $3.89 based on varying assumptions around INFN's market share gains.
2. Executive Summary
Source: Yahoo Finance.
Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside
▸ Optical transport networking
– The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across networks
▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is)
▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro
Industry
Overview
Variant View
▸ Industry Trends
– Bandwidth growth
– Privatization of
bandwidth
– Service Providers
supplier dilemma
Company
Overview
▸ Key Win
Opportunities
– AT&T & Verizon
– Transmode cross-
selling
– DCI & Metro
▸ Best-in-Class
Products
– PIC technology
– Vertical integration
– Misunderstood
industry
1 2 3
DCF Valuation
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to:
– Additional vertical integration capabilities
– PIC-enabled technology
– Faster, more efficient, reliable products
▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets
1
4. 3.9%5.1%
7.4%
12.2%
15.1%
21.8%
34.5%
Cisco Coriant Infinera Alcatel-Lucent
Ciena Huawei Other
Industry Overview
▸ Optical networks that extend over great
distances
▸ INFN’s core focus
▸ Completing 100G upgrade cycle
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation, Wells Fargo.
Metro
▸ Optical networks for data centers
– Allows data centers to share data and
workload requirements
▸ First to market
– Launched Cloud Xpress in Q4 2014
▸ New market: $400mm in 2014
▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle
Long-Haul
$4,900
100%
$6,000
32%
$4,300
23%
$8,500
45%
Long-Haul
DCI
Metro
2020 TAM: $18.8B2016 TAM: $4.9B
▸ Optical networks in metropolitan areas
▸ Transmode’s – a recent INFN acquisition –
core focus
▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle
2014 & 2015 Optical Hardware Market Share
INFN’s Total Addressable MarketDCI
3
5.1%
5.8%
5.8%
13.1%
13.8%
21.8%
34.6%
5. Positive Bandwidth Trends
By the end of the decade:
▸ Mobility
– Advent of 5G
– 11.6B mobile connected devices
– Monthly global mobile traffic >30 exabytes/month
▸ Video
– 80% of global Internet consumption will be video content
– 75% of mobile traffic will be video, 11x more than 2015
▸ Cloud
– Worldwide spending on public cloud services will grow at a
19.4% CAGR to $141B (2019), from $70B in 2015
▸ Internet of Things
– > 24B networked devices globally
– Average fixed broadband connection speed 42.5 Mbps,
double that of 2014
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation.
PrivatizationBandwidth Growth
▸ Server-to-server traffic growthwill increase the need for
private bandwidth, thereby expanding INFN’s customer
base
4
Interests of both INFN and major telecom players are
aligned
> Growth in bandwidth
> Multiple winners in the optical transport networking
space
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ShareofUsedBandwith
Trans-Atlantic Bandwidth
Internet Private
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mobility
IoT
Cloud
Video
7. Infinera – What The Network Will Be
Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance.
▸ Headquarters – Sunnyvale, CA
▸ Employees – 2,065
▸ The Company enables network operatorsto scale
network bandwidth, accelerate service innovation, and
simplify optical network operations
Corporate Information Stock Overview
Customers
Business – Manufacture and sell optical transport networking
equipment,software and services to Service Providers.
(in m illio ns o f US D$ , except m ultiples & s hare price am o unts )
As of: 9/26/2016
Ticker NASDAQ:INFN
Share Price $8.7 1
52 Week Low $8.20
52 Week High $22.85
Market Capitalization $1,247
Avg. Daily Volume 1.12
LTM EV/EBITDA 9.6x
LTM EV/Revenue 1.1x
Corporate Governance
▸ CEO – Tom Fallon
(0.8% of shares
outstanding) (66% of
compensation is in
equity)
Over 600
customers
spanning six
continents
3 of the top 4
Internet Content
Providers
Leading N.A. and
Pan-European
wholesale
operators
6 of the top 7
global cable
operators
6
▸ CEO Compensation Breakdown:
15% Base Salary, 19% Cash
Incentive, 66% Equity Incentive
▸ Board Composition: 2 Insiders, 7
Outsiders (Fallon andCo-Founder
David Welch)
8. Best-in-Class Optical Networking
Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance.
Competitive advantages have launched INFN to grow Long-Haul market share by 500+ basis points in the past five
years.
2
PIC-Enabled Technology
• PIC Enables Scalable, Intelligent
Functions:SDN, integrated
switching, sliceable bandwidth
• HighCapacityApplications:Long-
haul, Metro Cloud, Metro Core
New Purpose-Built Products
• Cloud Xpress for DC Interconnect
• XT-Series for Long-haul
• XTM-Series & XTC-2 forMetro
• 3x TAM expansionto >$15B in
2020
Vertical Integration
• Lower cost structure than
competition
• Supply chaincontrol
• Additional functionalitydue to
integrationsynergies
Infinera has a competitive advantage due to its unique PIC technology,
market expansion opportunities, and vertically integrated business model.
7
9. Key Win Opportunities
Source: Company 10-K, Light Reading.
AT&T & Verizon Accounts Proof in Concept for DCI or Metro
Successful Cross-Selling
▸ Near-term lack of DCI or Metro customers caused
by:
– 9-12 month qualification periods
– Prolonged Transmode product integration timeline
– Delayed spending on DCI and Metro by service
providers
▸ Delayed Transmode product integration has
prohibited successful cross-selling to date
▸ Signs of cross-selling will generate upside for
INFN’s stock
3
a b
b
a
▸ First to market with Cloud Xpress technology in
Q4 2014
– Market is waiting on technological transition to
Terabit PIC which is unprecedented in industry
▸ INFN grows market share when:
– PIC technology and vertical integration wins DCI
customers
– Dominant relationships with ICPs gives INFN a
strong footprint with DCI customers
▸ Transmode’s specialty
▸ INFN grows market share when:
– PIC technological superiority wins Metro customers
– Vertical integration makes INFN a cost-effective
Metro solution
DCI
Metro
▸ Current Account Holders:
▸ Cycle: ROADM; 100G
▸ Last Layout: 05/24/16; 04/20/10
▸ Layout Details: Undisclosed
▸ Current Account Holders:
▸ Cycle: 100G in Metro
▸ Last Layout: 01/20/15
▸ Layout Details: ~$200M annually
split between Ciena and Cisco
8
10. How we got here….
Source: Yahoo Finance.
(70%)
(60%)
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
–
10%
20%
Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16
INFN CIEN S&P 500
Once a market darling, INFN’s stock sold-off due to management guidance suggesting a slow growth long-haul market
into 2017 and lack of short-term visibility.
Great Q1 results; poor
Q2 guidance based on
slower DCI and Metro
adoption rates
Great Q2 results; poor
Q3 guidance based on
slower Long-Haul
industry growth
$20.84
$8.71
9
11. Key Valuation Assumptions*
*See appendix for additional details.
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation.
Downside
Upside
Base
▸ Long-Haul
– Annual market share gains
of 2% in long-haul
– Market share reaches 20%
by 2020
▸ DCI & Metro
– Begin with 2% and 3%
market shares, respectively,
gain 3% market share
annually
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ COGS
– Decreases until levels off
at 50% of revenue in 2018
▸ SG&A
– Decreases by 2%/3%
annually from 17% of
revenue
▸ R&D
– Decreases by 1% annually
from 23% of revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
▸ Long-Haul
– Annual market share gains
of 1% in long-haul
– Market share reaches 20%
by 2020
▸ DCI & Metro
– Begin with 2% and 3%
market shares, respectively,
gain 1% market share
annually
▸ COGS
– Decreases by 1% annually
from 54% of revenue
▸ SG&A
– Decreases by 1%/2%
annually from 18% of
revenue
▸ R&D
– Decreases by 2% annually
from 23% of revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
▸ Long-Haul
– Stable 16% market share
▸ DCI & Metro
– 1% market share
▸ COGS
– Stable at 54% of revenue
▸ SG&A
– Stable at 18% of revenue
▸ R&D
– At historical 20% of
revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
10
12. Questions?
Source: Yahoo Finance.
Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside
▸ Optical transport networking
– The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across the networks
▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is)
▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro
Industry
Overview
Variant View
▸ Industry Trends
– Bandwidth growth
– Privatization of
bandwidth
– Service Providers
supplier dilemma
Company
Overview
▸ Key Win
Opportunities
– AT&T & Verizon
– Transmode cross-
selling
– DCI & Metro
▸ Best-in-Class
Products
– PIC technology
– Vertical integration
– Misunderstood
industry
1 2 3
DCF Valuation
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to:
– Additional vertical integration capabilities
– PIC-enabled technology
– Faster, more efficient, reliable products
▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets
11