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NASDAQ: INFN
Analysts: Grant Ebenger, Ryan Newill, Carl Schiro
Executive Summary
Source: Yahoo Finance.
Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside
▸ Optical transport networking
– The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across networks
▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is)
▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro
Industry
Overview
Variant View
▸ Industry Trends
– Bandwidth growth
– Privatization of
bandwidth
– Service Providers
supplier dilemma
Company
Overview
▸ Key Win
Opportunities
– AT&T & Verizon
– Transmode cross-
selling
– DCI & Metro
▸ Best-in-Class
Products
– PIC technology
– Vertical integration
– Misunderstood
industry
1 2 3
DCF Valuation
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to:
– Additional vertical integration capabilities
– PIC-enabled technology
– Faster, more efficient, reliable products
▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets
1
I. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
A growing industry
2
3.9%5.1%
7.4%
12.2%
15.1%
21.8%
34.5%
Cisco Coriant Infinera Alcatel-Lucent
Ciena Huawei Other
Industry Overview
▸ Optical networks that extend over great
distances
▸ INFN’s core focus
▸ Completing 100G upgrade cycle
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation, Wells Fargo.
Metro
▸ Optical networks for data centers
– Allows data centers to share data and
workload requirements
▸ First to market
– Launched Cloud Xpress in Q4 2014
▸ New market: $400mm in 2014
▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle
Long-Haul
$4,900
100%
$6,000
32%
$4,300
23%
$8,500
45%
Long-Haul
DCI
Metro
2020 TAM: $18.8B2016 TAM: $4.9B
▸ Optical networks in metropolitan areas
▸ Transmode’s – a recent INFN acquisition –
core focus
▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle
2014 & 2015 Optical Hardware Market Share
INFN’s Total Addressable MarketDCI
3
5.1%
5.8%
5.8%
13.1%
13.8%
21.8%
34.6%
Positive Bandwidth Trends
By the end of the decade:
▸ Mobility
– Advent of 5G
– 11.6B mobile connected devices
– Monthly global mobile traffic >30 exabytes/month
▸ Video
– 80% of global Internet consumption will be video content
– 75% of mobile traffic will be video, 11x more than 2015
▸ Cloud
– Worldwide spending on public cloud services will grow at a
19.4% CAGR to $141B (2019), from $70B in 2015
▸ Internet of Things
– > 24B networked devices globally
– Average fixed broadband connection speed 42.5 Mbps,
double that of 2014
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation.
PrivatizationBandwidth Growth
▸ Server-to-server traffic growthwill increase the need for
private bandwidth, thereby expanding INFN’s customer
base
4
Interests of both INFN and major telecom players are
aligned
> Growth in bandwidth
> Multiple winners in the optical transport networking
space
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ShareofUsedBandwith
Trans-Atlantic Bandwidth
Internet Private
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mobility
IoT
Cloud
Video
II. COMPANY OVERVIEW
A proven winner
5
Infinera – What The Network Will Be
Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance.
▸ Headquarters – Sunnyvale, CA
▸ Employees – 2,065
▸ The Company enables network operatorsto scale
network bandwidth, accelerate service innovation, and
simplify optical network operations
Corporate Information Stock Overview
Customers
Business – Manufacture and sell optical transport networking
equipment,software and services to Service Providers.
(in m illio ns o f US D$ , except m ultiples & s hare price am o unts )
As of: 9/26/2016
Ticker NASDAQ:INFN
Share Price $8.7 1
52 Week Low $8.20
52 Week High $22.85
Market Capitalization $1,247
Avg. Daily Volume 1.12
LTM EV/EBITDA 9.6x
LTM EV/Revenue 1.1x
Corporate Governance
▸ CEO – Tom Fallon
(0.8% of shares
outstanding) (66% of
compensation is in
equity)
Over 600
customers
spanning six
continents
3 of the top 4
Internet Content
Providers
Leading N.A. and
Pan-European
wholesale
operators
6 of the top 7
global cable
operators
6
▸ CEO Compensation Breakdown:
15% Base Salary, 19% Cash
Incentive, 66% Equity Incentive
▸ Board Composition: 2 Insiders, 7
Outsiders (Fallon andCo-Founder
David Welch)
Best-in-Class Optical Networking
Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance.
Competitive advantages have launched INFN to grow Long-Haul market share by 500+ basis points in the past five
years.
2
PIC-Enabled Technology
• PIC Enables Scalable, Intelligent
Functions:SDN, integrated
switching, sliceable bandwidth
• HighCapacityApplications:Long-
haul, Metro Cloud, Metro Core
New Purpose-Built Products
• Cloud Xpress for DC Interconnect
• XT-Series for Long-haul
• XTM-Series & XTC-2 forMetro
• 3x TAM expansionto >$15B in
2020
Vertical Integration
• Lower cost structure than
competition
• Supply chaincontrol
• Additional functionalitydue to
integrationsynergies
Infinera has a competitive advantage due to its unique PIC technology,
market expansion opportunities, and vertically integrated business model.
7
Key Win Opportunities
Source: Company 10-K, Light Reading.
AT&T & Verizon Accounts Proof in Concept for DCI or Metro
Successful Cross-Selling
▸ Near-term lack of DCI or Metro customers caused
by:
– 9-12 month qualification periods
– Prolonged Transmode product integration timeline
– Delayed spending on DCI and Metro by service
providers
▸ Delayed Transmode product integration has
prohibited successful cross-selling to date
▸ Signs of cross-selling will generate upside for
INFN’s stock
3
a b
b
a
▸ First to market with Cloud Xpress technology in
Q4 2014
– Market is waiting on technological transition to
Terabit PIC which is unprecedented in industry
▸ INFN grows market share when:
– PIC technology and vertical integration wins DCI
customers
– Dominant relationships with ICPs gives INFN a
strong footprint with DCI customers
▸ Transmode’s specialty
▸ INFN grows market share when:
– PIC technological superiority wins Metro customers
– Vertical integration makes INFN a cost-effective
Metro solution
DCI
Metro
▸ Current Account Holders:
▸ Cycle: ROADM; 100G
▸ Last Layout: 05/24/16; 04/20/10
▸ Layout Details: Undisclosed
▸ Current Account Holders:
▸ Cycle: 100G in Metro
▸ Last Layout: 01/20/15
▸ Layout Details: ~$200M annually
split between Ciena and Cisco
8
How we got here….
Source: Yahoo Finance.
(70%)
(60%)
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
–
10%
20%
Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16
INFN CIEN S&P 500
Once a market darling, INFN’s stock sold-off due to management guidance suggesting a slow growth long-haul market
into 2017 and lack of short-term visibility.
Great Q1 results; poor
Q2 guidance based on
slower DCI and Metro
adoption rates
Great Q2 results; poor
Q3 guidance based on
slower Long-Haul
industry growth
$20.84
$8.71
9
Key Valuation Assumptions*
*See appendix for additional details.
Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation.
Downside
Upside
Base
▸ Long-Haul
– Annual market share gains
of 2% in long-haul
– Market share reaches 20%
by 2020
▸ DCI & Metro
– Begin with 2% and 3%
market shares, respectively,
gain 3% market share
annually
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ COGS
– Decreases until levels off
at 50% of revenue in 2018
▸ SG&A
– Decreases by 2%/3%
annually from 17% of
revenue
▸ R&D
– Decreases by 1% annually
from 23% of revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
▸ Long-Haul
– Annual market share gains
of 1% in long-haul
– Market share reaches 20%
by 2020
▸ DCI & Metro
– Begin with 2% and 3%
market shares, respectively,
gain 1% market share
annually
▸ COGS
– Decreases by 1% annually
from 54% of revenue
▸ SG&A
– Decreases by 1%/2%
annually from 18% of
revenue
▸ R&D
– Decreases by 2% annually
from 23% of revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
▸ Long-Haul
– Stable 16% market share
▸ DCI & Metro
– 1% market share
▸ COGS
– Stable at 54% of revenue
▸ SG&A
– Stable at 18% of revenue
▸ R&D
– At historical 20% of
revenue
Conclusion Revenue Costs
10
Questions?
Source: Yahoo Finance.
Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside
▸ Optical transport networking
– The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across the networks
▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is)
▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro
Industry
Overview
Variant View
▸ Industry Trends
– Bandwidth growth
– Privatization of
bandwidth
– Service Providers
supplier dilemma
Company
Overview
▸ Key Win
Opportunities
– AT&T & Verizon
– Transmode cross-
selling
– DCI & Metro
▸ Best-in-Class
Products
– PIC technology
– Vertical integration
– Misunderstood
industry
1 2 3
DCF Valuation
Price Target: $18.00
Upside: 106.7%
Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside
Price Target: $36.93
Upside: 324.0%
Price Target: $3.89
Downside: (55.3%)
▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to:
– Additional vertical integration capabilities
– PIC-enabled technology
– Faster, more efficient, reliable products
▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets
11
III. APPENDIX
12
A. DOWNSIDE
13
Revenue Build – Downside
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR
T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $863 $913 $967 $1,025 $1,088 4.7 %
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% (2.7%) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1%
Long-Haul
Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2%
Market Share 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%
Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0%
Long-Haul Revenue $784 $825 $868 $913 $960
DCI
Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0%
Market Share 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
DCI Revenue $16 $20 $26 $34 $43
Metro
Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8%
Market Share 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
Metro Revenue $63 $68 $73 $79 $85
Metro DCI Long-Haul
▸ INFN grows with the market
– Technological superiority due to PIC
and vertical integration fails to win
market share
▸ New best-in-class Terabit PIC fails to
win market share
▸ The Transmode & INFN product
integration fails to gain market share
14
DCF – Downside
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts )
Y ear 5 EBITDA $109
Exit Multiple 7 .8x
Terminal Value $845
Discount Factor 56.0%
PV of Terminal Value $47 3
PV of FCF 137
EV $610
Debt –
Excess Cash –
Equity Value $610
Diluted Shares Outstanding 157
Implied Share Price $3.89
Price Target: $3.89
Current Price: $8.71
Downside: (55.3%)
Additional Downside Protection: If the Company fails to win in the DCI and Metro segments, its R&D expense would likely decline in-line
with a lower revenue base; this is not taken into account in the downside case.
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $863 $913 $967 $1,025 $1,088
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% (2.7%) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1%
COGS 239 281 325 380 483 47 0 493 522 554 588
Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 393 420 445 472 500
Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 45.5% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0%
SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 164 164 17 4 185 196
R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 198 183 193 205 218
EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 30 73 77 82 87
EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 3.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 24 65 29 66 56 60 64
Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 (5) 8 9 10 11
D&A 18 23 23 25 26 26 32 31 28 22
Capex 39 25 21 23 42 43 46 39 31 22
FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($24) $47 $16 $45 $40 $47 $53
15
B. BASE
16
Revenue Build – Base
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR
T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $958 $1,162 $1,400 $1,680 $2,011 16.0%
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 8.0% 21.3% 20.5% 20.0% 19.7%
Long-Haul
Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2%
Market Share 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%
Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%
Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0%
Long-Haul Revenue $784 $876 $976 $1,084 $1,200
DCI
Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0%
Market Share 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
DCI Revenue $48 $82 $131 $202 $301
Metro
Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8%
Market Share 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
Metro Revenue $126 $204 $293 $394 $510
Metro DCI Long-Haul
▸ INFN sustains and continues to
slowly grow market share
– Cross-sells using Transmode
opportunities
– Layout of next generation products
provides opportunity for INFN to
demonstrate superior PIC technology
▸ INFN slightly grows market share as
the DCI market booms
– Utilizes first-to-market in small form
factor devices to gain credibility
– Leverages best-in-class Terabit PIC
product
▸ INFN utilizes the Transmode
acquisition to gain some market share
in the metro markets
– Successfully integrates
Transmode/INFN products
17
DCF – Base
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts )
Y ear 5 EBITDA $463
Exit Multiple 9.4x
Terminal Value $4,356
Discount Factor 56.0%
PV of Terminal Value $2,438
PV of FCF 385
EV $2,824
Debt –
Excess Cash –
Equity Value $2,824
Diluted Shares Outstanding 157
Implied Share Price $18.00
Price Target: $18.00
Current Price: $8.71
Upside: 106.7%
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $958 $1,162 $1,400 $1,680 $2,011
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 8.0% 21.3% 20.5% 20.0% 19.7%
COGS 239 281 325 380 483 517 616 7 28 857 1,006
Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 441 546 672 823 1,006
Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0%
SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 17 2 186 196 218 241
R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 220 244 266 286 342
EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 48 116 210 319 422
EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 19.0% 21.0%
EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 24 65 45 106 153 233 308
Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 11 34 39 46 54
D&A 18 23 23 25 26 29 41 45 45 40
Capex 39 25 21 23 42 48 58 56 50 40
FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($24) $47 $15 $54 $103 $182 $254
18
C. UPSIDE
19
Revenue Build – Upside
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR
T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $1,021 $1,458 $1,97 9 $2,604 $3,360 26.9%
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 15.1% 42.8% 35.7% 31.6% 29.0%
Long-Haul
Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2%
Market Share 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0%
Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%
Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0%
Long-Haul Revenue $784 $928 $1,084 $1,255 $1,440
DCI
Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0%
Market Share 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
DCI Revenue $48 $123 $236 $403 $645
Metro
Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8%
Market Share 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0%
Metro Revenue $189 $407 $659 $946 $1,275
Metro DCI Long-Haul
▸ INFN continues to grow market share
– PIC technology and vertical
integration wins additional customers
– Successful cross-selling of Transmode
customers
– Wins AT&T and Verizon accounts
▸ INFN quickly grows market share
– PIC technology and vertical
integration wins DCI customers
– Dominant relationships with ICPs
gives INFN a strong footprint with
DCI customers
▸ INFN quickly grows market share
– PIC technological superiority wins
Metro customers
– Vertical integration makes INFN a
cost-effective Metro solution
20
DCF – Upside
Source: Company 10-K.
(in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts )
Y ear 5 EBITDA $840
Exit Multiple 11.1x
Terminal Value $9,296
Discount Factor 56.0%
PV of Terminal Value $5,204
PV of FCF 589
EV $5,7 93
Debt –
Excess Cash –
Equity Value $5,7 93
Diluted Shares Outstanding 157
Implied Share Price $36.93
(in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $1,021 $1,458 $1,97 9 $2,604 $3,360
Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 15.1% 42.8% 35.7% 31.6% 29.0%
COGS 239 281 325 380 483 541 7 58 990 1,302 1,680
Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 480 700 990 1,302 1,680
Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 47.0% 48.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 17 4 204 237 260 269
R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 235 321 416 521 638
EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 71 175 336 521 773
EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 7.0% 12.0% 17.0% 20.0% 23.0%
Tax rate – – – – – 5.2% 9.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 68 159 246 380 564
Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 21 7 3 85 105 127
D&A 18 23 23 25 26 31 51 63 7 0 67
Capex 39 25 21 23 42 51 7 3 7 9 7 8 67
FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($19) $49 $26 $64 $145 $267 $437
Price Target: $36.93
Current Price: $8.71
Upside: 324.0%
Additional Upside Opportunity: Similar to how Intel has used it’s R&D scale as a barrier of entry, Infinera could do the same in the long-
term.
21
D. RELATIVE VALUATION
22
Relative Valuation
Source: Company 10-K.
Valuation Statistics
Market Net Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT
Company Ticker Capitalization Debt Value 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015A
Ciena Corporation NYSE:CIEN $2,937 $366 $3,304 1 .4x 1 .3x 1 .2x 1 2.2x 9.1 x 7 .8x 24.5x
Fabrinet NYSE:FN 1 ,498 (224) 1 ,27 5 1 .6x 1 .3x 1 .0x 20.5x 1 3.8x 9.9x 25.8x
Lumentum Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:LITE 2,301 (1 57 ) 2,1 44 2.6x 2.4x 2.1 x 55.7 x 1 7 .1 x 1 2.2x NM
Oclaro, Inc. NASDAQ:OCLR 1 ,27 2 (28) 1 ,244 3.6x 3.1 x 2.3x NM 32.9x 1 5.3x NM
Inphi Corporation NYSE:IPHI 1 ,600 (1 51 ) 1 ,449 5.9x 5.5x 4.6x 62.7 x 1 5.2x 1 2.4x NM
NeoPhotonics Corporation NYSE:NPTN 7 34 (65) 668 2.0x 1 .6x 1 .4x 23.6x 1 2.1 x 8.8x 1 23.2x
Infinera Corporation NASDAQ:INFN $1 ,203 ($1 29) $1 ,07 3 1 .2x 1 .2x 1 .2x 1 0.6x 8.3x 9.4x 1 6.1 x
Low $7 34 ($224) $668 1 .4x 1 .3x 1 .0x 1 2.2x 9.1 x 7 .8x 24.5x
Mean 1 ,7 24 (43) 1 ,680 2.8x 2.5x 2.1 x 34.9x 1 6.7 x 1 1 .1 x 57 .9x
Median 1 ,549 (1 08) 1 ,362 2.3x 2.0x 1 .7 x 23.6x 1 4.5x 1 1 .1 x 25.8x
High $2,937 $366 $3,304 5.9x 5.5x 4.6x 62.7 x 32.9x 1 5.3x 1 23.2x
Operating Statistics
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth EBIT
Company Ticker 2015A 2016E 2017E '15-16 '16-17 2015A 2016E 2017E '15-16 '16-17 2015A
Ciena Corporation NYSE:CIEN $2,446 $2,601 $2,804 6.3% 7 .8% $27 0 $363 $425 34.3% 1 7 .1 % $1 35
Fabrinet NYSE:FN 7 7 4 963 1 ,229 24.4% 27 .6% 62 92 1 29 48.1 % 39.7 % 49
Lumentum Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:LITE 837 900 1 ,036 7 .5% 1 5.1 % 39 1 26 1 7 5 226.1 % 39.6% (1 3)
Oclaro, Inc. NASDAQ:OCLR 341 402 540 1 7 .9% 34.2% (26) 38 81 NM 1 1 5.4% (45)
Inphi Corporation NYSE:IPHI 247 266 31 8 7 .7 % 1 9.8% 23 96 1 1 7 31 3.2% 22.0% (3)
NeoPhotonics Corporation NYSE:NPTN 339 41 9 493 23.3% 1 7 .8% 28 55 7 6 95.9% 36.6% 5
Infinera Corporation NASDAQ:INFN $887 $887 $925 (0.0%) 4.3% $1 01 $1 29 $1 1 4 27 .6% NM $67
Low $247 $266 $31 8 6.3% 7 .8% ($26) $38 $7 6 34.3% 1 7 .1 % ($45)
Mean 831 925 1 ,07 0 1 4.5% 20.4% 66 1 28 1 67 1 43.5% 45.1 % 22
Median 557 659 7 88 1 2.8% 1 8.8% 33 94 1 23 95.9% 38.1 % 1
High $2,446 $2,601 $2,804 24.4% 34.2% $27 0 $363 $425 31 3.2% 1 1 5.4% $1 35
23

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INFN_Presentation_vFinal (1)

  • 1. NASDAQ: INFN Analysts: Grant Ebenger, Ryan Newill, Carl Schiro
  • 2. Executive Summary Source: Yahoo Finance. Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside ▸ Optical transport networking – The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across networks ▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is) ▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro Industry Overview Variant View ▸ Industry Trends – Bandwidth growth – Privatization of bandwidth – Service Providers supplier dilemma Company Overview ▸ Key Win Opportunities – AT&T & Verizon – Transmode cross- selling – DCI & Metro ▸ Best-in-Class Products – PIC technology – Vertical integration – Misunderstood industry 1 2 3 DCF Valuation Price Target: $18.00 Upside: 106.7% Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside Price Target: $36.93 Upside: 324.0% Price Target: $3.89 Downside: (55.3%) ▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to: – Additional vertical integration capabilities – PIC-enabled technology – Faster, more efficient, reliable products ▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets 1
  • 3. I. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW A growing industry 2
  • 4. 3.9%5.1% 7.4% 12.2% 15.1% 21.8% 34.5% Cisco Coriant Infinera Alcatel-Lucent Ciena Huawei Other Industry Overview ▸ Optical networks that extend over great distances ▸ INFN’s core focus ▸ Completing 100G upgrade cycle Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation, Wells Fargo. Metro ▸ Optical networks for data centers – Allows data centers to share data and workload requirements ▸ First to market – Launched Cloud Xpress in Q4 2014 ▸ New market: $400mm in 2014 ▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle Long-Haul $4,900 100% $6,000 32% $4,300 23% $8,500 45% Long-Haul DCI Metro 2020 TAM: $18.8B2016 TAM: $4.9B ▸ Optical networks in metropolitan areas ▸ Transmode’s – a recent INFN acquisition – core focus ▸ Starting 100G upgrade cycle 2014 & 2015 Optical Hardware Market Share INFN’s Total Addressable MarketDCI 3 5.1% 5.8% 5.8% 13.1% 13.8% 21.8% 34.6%
  • 5. Positive Bandwidth Trends By the end of the decade: ▸ Mobility – Advent of 5G – 11.6B mobile connected devices – Monthly global mobile traffic >30 exabytes/month ▸ Video – 80% of global Internet consumption will be video content – 75% of mobile traffic will be video, 11x more than 2015 ▸ Cloud – Worldwide spending on public cloud services will grow at a 19.4% CAGR to $141B (2019), from $70B in 2015 ▸ Internet of Things – > 24B networked devices globally – Average fixed broadband connection speed 42.5 Mbps, double that of 2014 Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation. PrivatizationBandwidth Growth ▸ Server-to-server traffic growthwill increase the need for private bandwidth, thereby expanding INFN’s customer base 4 Interests of both INFN and major telecom players are aligned > Growth in bandwidth > Multiple winners in the optical transport networking space 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ShareofUsedBandwith Trans-Atlantic Bandwidth Internet Private 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mobility IoT Cloud Video
  • 6. II. COMPANY OVERVIEW A proven winner 5
  • 7. Infinera – What The Network Will Be Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance. ▸ Headquarters – Sunnyvale, CA ▸ Employees – 2,065 ▸ The Company enables network operatorsto scale network bandwidth, accelerate service innovation, and simplify optical network operations Corporate Information Stock Overview Customers Business – Manufacture and sell optical transport networking equipment,software and services to Service Providers. (in m illio ns o f US D$ , except m ultiples & s hare price am o unts ) As of: 9/26/2016 Ticker NASDAQ:INFN Share Price $8.7 1 52 Week Low $8.20 52 Week High $22.85 Market Capitalization $1,247 Avg. Daily Volume 1.12 LTM EV/EBITDA 9.6x LTM EV/Revenue 1.1x Corporate Governance ▸ CEO – Tom Fallon (0.8% of shares outstanding) (66% of compensation is in equity) Over 600 customers spanning six continents 3 of the top 4 Internet Content Providers Leading N.A. and Pan-European wholesale operators 6 of the top 7 global cable operators 6 ▸ CEO Compensation Breakdown: 15% Base Salary, 19% Cash Incentive, 66% Equity Incentive ▸ Board Composition: 2 Insiders, 7 Outsiders (Fallon andCo-Founder David Welch)
  • 8. Best-in-Class Optical Networking Source: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Company 10-K, Yahoo Finance. Competitive advantages have launched INFN to grow Long-Haul market share by 500+ basis points in the past five years. 2 PIC-Enabled Technology • PIC Enables Scalable, Intelligent Functions:SDN, integrated switching, sliceable bandwidth • HighCapacityApplications:Long- haul, Metro Cloud, Metro Core New Purpose-Built Products • Cloud Xpress for DC Interconnect • XT-Series for Long-haul • XTM-Series & XTC-2 forMetro • 3x TAM expansionto >$15B in 2020 Vertical Integration • Lower cost structure than competition • Supply chaincontrol • Additional functionalitydue to integrationsynergies Infinera has a competitive advantage due to its unique PIC technology, market expansion opportunities, and vertically integrated business model. 7
  • 9. Key Win Opportunities Source: Company 10-K, Light Reading. AT&T & Verizon Accounts Proof in Concept for DCI or Metro Successful Cross-Selling ▸ Near-term lack of DCI or Metro customers caused by: – 9-12 month qualification periods – Prolonged Transmode product integration timeline – Delayed spending on DCI and Metro by service providers ▸ Delayed Transmode product integration has prohibited successful cross-selling to date ▸ Signs of cross-selling will generate upside for INFN’s stock 3 a b b a ▸ First to market with Cloud Xpress technology in Q4 2014 – Market is waiting on technological transition to Terabit PIC which is unprecedented in industry ▸ INFN grows market share when: – PIC technology and vertical integration wins DCI customers – Dominant relationships with ICPs gives INFN a strong footprint with DCI customers ▸ Transmode’s specialty ▸ INFN grows market share when: – PIC technological superiority wins Metro customers – Vertical integration makes INFN a cost-effective Metro solution DCI Metro ▸ Current Account Holders: ▸ Cycle: ROADM; 100G ▸ Last Layout: 05/24/16; 04/20/10 ▸ Layout Details: Undisclosed ▸ Current Account Holders: ▸ Cycle: 100G in Metro ▸ Last Layout: 01/20/15 ▸ Layout Details: ~$200M annually split between Ciena and Cisco 8
  • 10. How we got here…. Source: Yahoo Finance. (70%) (60%) (50%) (40%) (30%) (20%) (10%) – 10% 20% Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 INFN CIEN S&P 500 Once a market darling, INFN’s stock sold-off due to management guidance suggesting a slow growth long-haul market into 2017 and lack of short-term visibility. Great Q1 results; poor Q2 guidance based on slower DCI and Metro adoption rates Great Q2 results; poor Q3 guidance based on slower Long-Haul industry growth $20.84 $8.71 9
  • 11. Key Valuation Assumptions* *See appendix for additional details. Source: Company 10-K, INFN Analyst Presentation. Downside Upside Base ▸ Long-Haul – Annual market share gains of 2% in long-haul – Market share reaches 20% by 2020 ▸ DCI & Metro – Begin with 2% and 3% market shares, respectively, gain 3% market share annually Price Target: $18.00 Upside: 106.7% Current Price: $8.71 Price Target: $36.93 Upside: 324.0% Price Target: $3.89 Downside: (55.3%) ▸ COGS – Decreases until levels off at 50% of revenue in 2018 ▸ SG&A – Decreases by 2%/3% annually from 17% of revenue ▸ R&D – Decreases by 1% annually from 23% of revenue Conclusion Revenue Costs ▸ Long-Haul – Annual market share gains of 1% in long-haul – Market share reaches 20% by 2020 ▸ DCI & Metro – Begin with 2% and 3% market shares, respectively, gain 1% market share annually ▸ COGS – Decreases by 1% annually from 54% of revenue ▸ SG&A – Decreases by 1%/2% annually from 18% of revenue ▸ R&D – Decreases by 2% annually from 23% of revenue Conclusion Revenue Costs ▸ Long-Haul – Stable 16% market share ▸ DCI & Metro – 1% market share ▸ COGS – Stable at 54% of revenue ▸ SG&A – Stable at 18% of revenue ▸ R&D – At historical 20% of revenue Conclusion Revenue Costs 10
  • 12. Questions? Source: Yahoo Finance. Unique opportunity with asymmetricalreturn potential: 4x upside and 48% downside ▸ Optical transport networking – The fiber optic “plumbing” that allows Service Providers to send data across the networks ▸ Upgrading infrastructure from 10G/40G to 100G (industryterms for how fast the network is) ▸ Three key verticals: Long-Haul, DCI, Metro Industry Overview Variant View ▸ Industry Trends – Bandwidth growth – Privatization of bandwidth – Service Providers supplier dilemma Company Overview ▸ Key Win Opportunities – AT&T & Verizon – Transmode cross- selling – DCI & Metro ▸ Best-in-Class Products – PIC technology – Vertical integration – Misunderstood industry 1 2 3 DCF Valuation Price Target: $18.00 Upside: 106.7% Current Price: $8.71 Downside Base Upside Price Target: $36.93 Upside: 324.0% Price Target: $3.89 Downside: (55.3%) ▸ Leading player in Long-Haul due to: – Additional vertical integration capabilities – PIC-enabled technology – Faster, more efficient, reliable products ▸ Expanding into DCI and Metro markets 11
  • 15. Revenue Build – Downside Source: Company 10-K. (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $863 $913 $967 $1,025 $1,088 4.7 % Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% (2.7%) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% Long-Haul Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2% Market Share 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% Long-Haul Revenue $784 $825 $868 $913 $960 DCI Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0% Market Share 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% DCI Revenue $16 $20 $26 $34 $43 Metro Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8% Market Share 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Metro Revenue $63 $68 $73 $79 $85 Metro DCI Long-Haul ▸ INFN grows with the market – Technological superiority due to PIC and vertical integration fails to win market share ▸ New best-in-class Terabit PIC fails to win market share ▸ The Transmode & INFN product integration fails to gain market share 14
  • 16. DCF – Downside Source: Company 10-K. (in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts ) Y ear 5 EBITDA $109 Exit Multiple 7 .8x Terminal Value $845 Discount Factor 56.0% PV of Terminal Value $47 3 PV of FCF 137 EV $610 Debt – Excess Cash – Equity Value $610 Diluted Shares Outstanding 157 Implied Share Price $3.89 Price Target: $3.89 Current Price: $8.71 Downside: (55.3%) Additional Downside Protection: If the Company fails to win in the DCI and Metro segments, its R&D expense would likely decline in-line with a lower revenue base; this is not taken into account in the downside case. (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $863 $913 $967 $1,025 $1,088 Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% (2.7%) 5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1% COGS 239 281 325 380 483 47 0 493 522 554 588 Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 393 420 445 472 500 Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 45.5% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 164 164 17 4 185 196 R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 198 183 193 205 218 EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 30 73 77 82 87 EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 3.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 24 65 29 66 56 60 64 Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 (5) 8 9 10 11 D&A 18 23 23 25 26 26 32 31 28 22 Capex 39 25 21 23 42 43 46 39 31 22 FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($24) $47 $16 $45 $40 $47 $53 15
  • 18. Revenue Build – Base Source: Company 10-K. (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $958 $1,162 $1,400 $1,680 $2,011 16.0% Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 8.0% 21.3% 20.5% 20.0% 19.7% Long-Haul Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2% Market Share 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% Long-Haul Revenue $784 $876 $976 $1,084 $1,200 DCI Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0% Market Share 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% DCI Revenue $48 $82 $131 $202 $301 Metro Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8% Market Share 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Metro Revenue $126 $204 $293 $394 $510 Metro DCI Long-Haul ▸ INFN sustains and continues to slowly grow market share – Cross-sells using Transmode opportunities – Layout of next generation products provides opportunity for INFN to demonstrate superior PIC technology ▸ INFN slightly grows market share as the DCI market booms – Utilizes first-to-market in small form factor devices to gain credibility – Leverages best-in-class Terabit PIC product ▸ INFN utilizes the Transmode acquisition to gain some market share in the metro markets – Successfully integrates Transmode/INFN products 17
  • 19. DCF – Base Source: Company 10-K. (in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts ) Y ear 5 EBITDA $463 Exit Multiple 9.4x Terminal Value $4,356 Discount Factor 56.0% PV of Terminal Value $2,438 PV of FCF 385 EV $2,824 Debt – Excess Cash – Equity Value $2,824 Diluted Shares Outstanding 157 Implied Share Price $18.00 Price Target: $18.00 Current Price: $8.71 Upside: 106.7% (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $958 $1,162 $1,400 $1,680 $2,011 Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 8.0% 21.3% 20.5% 20.0% 19.7% COGS 239 281 325 380 483 517 616 7 28 857 1,006 Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 441 546 672 823 1,006 Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 17 2 186 196 218 241 R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 220 244 266 286 342 EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 48 116 210 319 422 EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 19.0% 21.0% EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 24 65 45 106 153 233 308 Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 11 34 39 46 54 D&A 18 23 23 25 26 29 41 45 45 40 Capex 39 25 21 23 42 48 58 56 50 40 FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($24) $47 $15 $54 $103 $182 $254 18
  • 21. Revenue Build – Upside Source: Company 10-K. (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR T otal Revenue $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $1,021 $1,458 $1,97 9 $2,604 $3,360 26.9% Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 15.1% 42.8% 35.7% 31.6% 29.0% Long-Haul Market Size $4,900 $5,154 $5,422 $5,7 04 $6,000 5.2% Market Share 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% Downside Case 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% Base Case 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% Upside Case 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0% Long-Haul Revenue $784 $928 $1,084 $1,255 $1,440 DCI Market Size $1,600 $2,049 $2,623 $3,358 $4,300 28.0% Market Share 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% DCI Revenue $48 $123 $236 $403 $645 Metro Market Size $6,300 $6,7 90 $7 ,318 $7 ,887 $8,500 7 .8% Market Share 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Downside Case 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Base Case 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Upside Case 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Metro Revenue $189 $407 $659 $946 $1,275 Metro DCI Long-Haul ▸ INFN continues to grow market share – PIC technology and vertical integration wins additional customers – Successful cross-selling of Transmode customers – Wins AT&T and Verizon accounts ▸ INFN quickly grows market share – PIC technology and vertical integration wins DCI customers – Dominant relationships with ICPs gives INFN a strong footprint with DCI customers ▸ INFN quickly grows market share – PIC technological superiority wins Metro customers – Vertical integration makes INFN a cost-effective Metro solution 20
  • 22. DCF – Upside Source: Company 10-K. (in millio ns o f USD$ , except per s hare amo unts ) Y ear 5 EBITDA $840 Exit Multiple 11.1x Terminal Value $9,296 Discount Factor 56.0% PV of Terminal Value $5,204 PV of FCF 589 EV $5,7 93 Debt – Excess Cash – Equity Value $5,7 93 Diluted Shares Outstanding 157 Implied Share Price $36.93 (in millions of USD$) 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenues $405 $438 $544 $668 $887 $1,021 $1,458 $1,97 9 $2,604 $3,360 Revenue Growth 8.3% 24.1% 22.8% 32.7% 15.1% 42.8% 35.7% 31.6% 29.0% COGS 239 281 325 380 483 541 7 58 990 1,302 1,680 Gross Profit 165 158 219 288 403 480 700 990 1,302 1,680 Gross Margin 40.9% 35.9% 40.2% 43.2% 45.5% 47.0% 48.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% SG&A 119 123 118 127 156 17 4 204 237 260 269 R&D Expense 127 117 125 131 181 235 321 416 521 638 EBIT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 71 175 336 521 773 EBIT Margin (20.0%) (18.9%) (4.4%) 4.4% 7.5% 7.0% 12.0% 17.0% 20.0% 23.0% Tax rate – – – – – 5.2% 9.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% EBIAT (81) (83) (24) 29 67 68 159 246 380 564 Increase in NWC – 39 1 50 2 21 7 3 85 105 127 D&A 18 23 23 25 26 31 51 63 7 0 67 Capex 39 25 21 23 42 51 7 3 7 9 7 8 67 FCF ($102) ($124) ($22) ($19) $49 $26 $64 $145 $267 $437 Price Target: $36.93 Current Price: $8.71 Upside: 324.0% Additional Upside Opportunity: Similar to how Intel has used it’s R&D scale as a barrier of entry, Infinera could do the same in the long- term. 21
  • 24. Relative Valuation Source: Company 10-K. Valuation Statistics Market Net Enterprise EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT Company Ticker Capitalization Debt Value 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015A 2016E 2017E 2015A Ciena Corporation NYSE:CIEN $2,937 $366 $3,304 1 .4x 1 .3x 1 .2x 1 2.2x 9.1 x 7 .8x 24.5x Fabrinet NYSE:FN 1 ,498 (224) 1 ,27 5 1 .6x 1 .3x 1 .0x 20.5x 1 3.8x 9.9x 25.8x Lumentum Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:LITE 2,301 (1 57 ) 2,1 44 2.6x 2.4x 2.1 x 55.7 x 1 7 .1 x 1 2.2x NM Oclaro, Inc. NASDAQ:OCLR 1 ,27 2 (28) 1 ,244 3.6x 3.1 x 2.3x NM 32.9x 1 5.3x NM Inphi Corporation NYSE:IPHI 1 ,600 (1 51 ) 1 ,449 5.9x 5.5x 4.6x 62.7 x 1 5.2x 1 2.4x NM NeoPhotonics Corporation NYSE:NPTN 7 34 (65) 668 2.0x 1 .6x 1 .4x 23.6x 1 2.1 x 8.8x 1 23.2x Infinera Corporation NASDAQ:INFN $1 ,203 ($1 29) $1 ,07 3 1 .2x 1 .2x 1 .2x 1 0.6x 8.3x 9.4x 1 6.1 x Low $7 34 ($224) $668 1 .4x 1 .3x 1 .0x 1 2.2x 9.1 x 7 .8x 24.5x Mean 1 ,7 24 (43) 1 ,680 2.8x 2.5x 2.1 x 34.9x 1 6.7 x 1 1 .1 x 57 .9x Median 1 ,549 (1 08) 1 ,362 2.3x 2.0x 1 .7 x 23.6x 1 4.5x 1 1 .1 x 25.8x High $2,937 $366 $3,304 5.9x 5.5x 4.6x 62.7 x 32.9x 1 5.3x 1 23.2x Operating Statistics Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth EBIT Company Ticker 2015A 2016E 2017E '15-16 '16-17 2015A 2016E 2017E '15-16 '16-17 2015A Ciena Corporation NYSE:CIEN $2,446 $2,601 $2,804 6.3% 7 .8% $27 0 $363 $425 34.3% 1 7 .1 % $1 35 Fabrinet NYSE:FN 7 7 4 963 1 ,229 24.4% 27 .6% 62 92 1 29 48.1 % 39.7 % 49 Lumentum Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:LITE 837 900 1 ,036 7 .5% 1 5.1 % 39 1 26 1 7 5 226.1 % 39.6% (1 3) Oclaro, Inc. NASDAQ:OCLR 341 402 540 1 7 .9% 34.2% (26) 38 81 NM 1 1 5.4% (45) Inphi Corporation NYSE:IPHI 247 266 31 8 7 .7 % 1 9.8% 23 96 1 1 7 31 3.2% 22.0% (3) NeoPhotonics Corporation NYSE:NPTN 339 41 9 493 23.3% 1 7 .8% 28 55 7 6 95.9% 36.6% 5 Infinera Corporation NASDAQ:INFN $887 $887 $925 (0.0%) 4.3% $1 01 $1 29 $1 1 4 27 .6% NM $67 Low $247 $266 $31 8 6.3% 7 .8% ($26) $38 $7 6 34.3% 1 7 .1 % ($45) Mean 831 925 1 ,07 0 1 4.5% 20.4% 66 1 28 1 67 1 43.5% 45.1 % 22 Median 557 659 7 88 1 2.8% 1 8.8% 33 94 1 23 95.9% 38.1 % 1 High $2,446 $2,601 $2,804 24.4% 34.2% $27 0 $363 $425 31 3.2% 1 1 5.4% $1 35 23