Arrowinsight Quarterly: IT Trends


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This session explores the broad topic of connectivity and communications in the IT landscape.

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  • Conference Board Reference:
  • OSI,Communications, Last Mile, Edge, GSM, Mobile, Wireless, Connectivity, Switch, Router, FCOE, 10gps, WiMax, WiFi, Zigbee, MEAP, CSP, UC, Communications, Telco, Networks, Packet, Security, Data, Voice
  • Notes on App Layer: BI / AnalyticsERP / CRM, Collaboration / Social ComputingSecurityInfrastructure, Connectivity and Communications Management – VCE, VIM
  • A great blog was posted on the WSJ – Feb, 2011 : Tucker – The newly appointed VP and CTO of Cloud, predicts a universe of clouds, with companies exploiting vertical markets offering specialized knowledge or accountability and audit, in medical, financial etc. Computing’s next wave has three key aspects to it: Mobile, tablets, talking to cloud-based data and applications running on powerful servers and connecting the two , the glue is the network. He’s predicted a more intelligent network – turning the network itself into a platform reather than a medium through which apps and data flow. Notes on App Layer: BI / AnalyticsERP / CRM, Collaboration / Social ComputingSecurityInfrastructure, Connectivity and Communications Management – VCE, VIM
  • When first looking at the subject of connectivity and communications – my mind went immediately to bandwidth. Afterall, it’s the bandwidth that carries all these 0s and 1s that we care about. And the fact remains, the US is lagging the rest of the modernized world with respect to connectivity. We rank 15th in the World for LTE and broadband connections and the Obama administration as part of stimulus funding has allocated 7.2B for bandwidth upgrades. On July 2010, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration released the Notice of Funds Availability, outlining the grants process for the first round of funding of $4 billion. LTE and technologies underlyingThe US in in 14th from a connectivity 1Mps - - Maybe we get to 5 – 10 Mps ( a lot of implications to applications)
  • Let’s dive a little deeper into how connectivity and communications is deployed in the IT environment. I have devised a somewhat simplistic view (not exhaustive) and illustrative of key technology elements within the c2 segment. This view is quite well illustrated in Arrow’s Follow the Wire presentation and can help you get much more specific about key products and services that touch each point in “the wire”. I call this ping, points, fabric and pipes because these are some of the key attributes in my opinion that directly relate to interconnecivity and how communications “voice and data” services are delivered. By following the bits of voice and data from the pipe/backbone into the infrastucture, up to the networks, out to the points and onto the desktops or devices, we start to see how things are becoming more networked, more interconnected.Let’s hone in a little more, focusing specifically on the “data center infrastructure” – We’ve all been hearing a lot on the topic on convergence, converged computing, unified computing and the like. My team has done a pretty thoughtful research synthesis on this topic and, in talking to some of our smartest ARW technologists, we are starting to focus the discussion of convergence specifically on the DC fabric. One notable innovation is of course, FCoE, where IP and IO SAN data (data and storage traffic) can be converged, using a single network. Simply put, this technology, allows the fibre channel to use 10Gps ethernet networks – “higher speeds” while preserving the fibre channel. This evolution is part of the larger transformation efforts underway in the infrastructure; what the analyst community is calling Fabric enabled computing, or fabric based infrastructure (virtualized machines, private cloud deployment, higher throughput processes) The main application of FCoE is in data center storage area networks (SANs). FCoE has particular application in data centers due to the cabling reduction it makes possible, as well as in server virtualization applications, which often require many physical I/O connections per server.With FCoE, network (IP) and storage (SAN) data traffic can be consolidated using a single network. This consolidation can:reduce the number of network interface cards required to connect to disparate storage and IP networksreduce the number of cables and switchesreduce power and cooling costsWhile in the short-run FCoE may not drive a lot of demand, in the long-run, the effect on the industry may prove positive (IDC)The analyst community considers NAS and iSCSI more mature in large complex networks IDC contends 10Gps Ethernet will spur interest in FCoE esp. with FC SAN installedGartner extols an explicit DC need for 10Gps switches as well as 40 – 100 Gps Backbone
  • Let’s continue up the stack – to the network layer. At this layer we’re getting closer to the edge, bringing in the off prem connection points into the equation – and this is a key characteristic to consider naturally as more of the workforce becomes distributed yet requires tightly coupled connections and communications to the network drives or WAN via VPN.Now – Let’s disect the network a little more specifcally: I will not go into deep detail with regard to the OSI interconnectivity model, but this overview, in my opinion is very important to consider in trying to understand how the network is playing into the overall computing, connectivity and communications processes. Some key growth forecast metrics to consider here – noteworthy technologies: Enterprise WAN equipment is forecast to have a steady growth trajectory of 5.4% CAGR in North America over the next four years, with an overall growth rate of 2% (Gartner)Wireless LAN, SSL VPN and Application Acceleration are forecast to have the strongest demand (Gartner)Enterprise Network Services in North America are forecast to see the strongest growth in internet services (17%) Data Services demand in the market is forecast to be driven by IP VPN and Ethernet (Gartner)VPNs can also be classified based on the OSI model layer at which they are constructed. This is an important distinction to make. For example, in the case of encrypted VPNs, the layer at which encryption occurs can determine how much traffic gets encrypted, as well as the level of transparency for the VPN's end users.Based on the OSI model layers, VPNs can be divided into the following three main categories:Data link layer VPNsNetwork layer VPNsApplication layer VPNs
  • I have published a paper on the Technology Transformation Maturity Curve. In that paper, I sight the interdependencies between business transformation and technology transformation. As businesses transforms, the propensity and need to procure more advanced technologies becomes more important. And, we’ve just touched on some (FEC, FBI) which helps firms transform how data and I/O flow through the environement. A key aspect on this tansofrmation journey is a firms ability to motivate and inspire workforce. Enabling the high performance workforce. What are some ways to do that, encorgage collaboration and more advanced forms of communications. This is where UCC, Mobile and wireless play a critical role.
  • Gartner / IDC , Team Analysis
  • Arrowinsight Quarterly: IT Trends

    1. 1. ArrowInsight QuarterlyInformation Technology TrendsEliot C. Arnold<br />DISCLAIMER:  This report was compiled by the Arrow ECS Intelligence Service Center. Arrow ECS is not responsible for the data inaccuracy contained herein and hereby disclaims any liability whatsoever with regard to this report or any part hereof.  This information is privileged and confidential and may not be shared with anyone else.<br />
    2. 2. Safe Harbor Statement<br />This presentation may include forward-looking statements, including statements addressing future financial results. These statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or facts to differ materially from such statements for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to: industry conditions, the company's implementation of its new enterprise resource planning system, changes in product supply, pricing and customer demand, competition, other vagaries in the global components and global ECS markets, changes in relationships with key suppliers, increased profit margin pressure, the effects of additional actions taken to become more efficient or lower costs, and the company’s ability to generate additional cash flow. Forward-looking statements are those statements, which are not statements of historical fact. These forward-looking statements can be identified by forward-looking words such as "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," "may," "will," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," and similar expressions. Shareholders and other readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward-looking statements.<br />5/18/2011<br />2<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    3. 3. 5/17/2011<br />3<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />Materials and Key Dates<br /><ul><li>Applications and Workloads: Q3
    4. 4. Technology Transformation: See IT Transformation Roadmap
    5. 5. Market Primers: Key markets available
    6. 6. Technology Primers: Forecasts and Insights on key products / services
    7. 7. SmartCart: Loyalty discounts available for ISC products / Supplier (MDF Funded) Programs Offered
    8. 8. MayDays: May 23 - 25
    9. 9. Leadership in Technology Forum: July 13, 2011</li></ul>Mike Critelli, CEO - Dossia<br />
    10. 10. 5/17/2011<br />4<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />Key Economic Data and other Market References<br />
    11. 11. Markets: Current Macroeconomic Indicators<br />5/17/2011<br />5<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br /><ul><li>According to the Conference Board, jobs recovery is underway. Strengthening business conditions in near term.
    12. 12. Inflationary pressures and consumer spending a factor
    13. 13. Q4, 2010 Census Data on Information Sector indicated the sector grew revenues 3.8% from the prior year
    14. 14. Samsung joins the US Semiconductor manufacturing renaissance </li></li></ul><li>Points for On-demand ReferenceGartner, IDC, Team Analysis<br />5/17/2011<br />6<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    15. 15. GTDC Distributor IT Data Alert <br />5/17/2011<br />7<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />Notable increases in Distribution Revenue YOY (April-10 vs. Apr- 11):<br /><ul><li>Overall increase of 4.3%
    16. 16. X86 CPU upgrades climbed 20.7%
    17. 17. SAN product revenues grew 11% </li></li></ul><li>Markets: IT Spending by State and Regional Market Dynamics<br />5/17/2011<br />8<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br /><ul><li>MA, MD, CO, CA are top ranked on the Milken Institute’s Technology and Science Index</li></ul>IDC State Blackbook Data: <br /><ul><li>Healthcare has the highest CAGR forecasts for 2011 – 2012 among all these states
    18. 18. In three markets (OR, NM, FL) the Construction industry is forecast to have double digit CAGR for the time period</li></ul>Questions to ask: Is Vertical or horizontal specialization a strategy for my firm? If so:<br /><ul><li>In what industries do I have past performance?
    19. 19. Where are those industries?
    20. 20. What technologies are forecast to have the most spend and highest growth in my markets? </li></li></ul><li>5/17/2011<br />9<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    21. 21. 5/17/2011<br />10<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />“Mobile First” From the Mobile World Congress<br />Distributed Computing/Parallel Processing, Network Speed: The unique intersection of computing, communications connectivity and cloud<br />
    22. 22. Research Agenda: Driving Specialization and Horizontal Expansion<br />Sales, Engineering, Strategy, Analytics, Market and Operational Intelligence, Finance, Fulfillment, Quality, People, G&A Support<br />Value-Added Enablement Services<br />Solution Integration & Adaptation (Lifecycle Services)<br />Applications / Workloads<br /><ul><li>Network: Switch, router, last mile, Interconnectivity (OSI)
    23. 23. Unified Communications: SIP, voice, data, video
    24. 24. Wireless / Mobile
    25. 25. Backbone
    26. 26. Hybrid Networks</li></ul>Connectivity and Communications<br /><ul><li>Compute
    27. 27. Store
    28. 28. Optimize & Scale
    29. 29. Power Plant, Cables and Cooling
    30. 30. Alternative Delivery - Cloud</li></ul>Infrastructure / Operations (IO)<br />
    31. 31. Value-Added Enablement Services<br />Solution Integration & Adaptation (Lifecycle Services)<br />Applications / Workloads<br />Connectivity and Communications<br />“The Network is the Computer…” (?)<br />Infrastructure / Operations (IO)<br />C2<br />
    32. 32. <ul><li>Ethernet speed access to Internet and Fast, Cheap Access to Network Drives
    33. 33. Real-time services, BW-intensive mobile apps, Video, VOIP, IPTV, IPv4 – v6
    34. 34. ARRA Funding $7.2B / $4B Available as of 2010
    35. 35. 30 – 40% annual increase for enterprises
    36. 36. WAN Optimization and Bandwidth Cost Control is forecast to keep spending flat</li></ul>Bandwidth: Delivered through Connectivity and Leveraged by Communications<br />13<br /><ul><li>The primary networking initiatives cited by midsize businesses for 2010 include bandwidth upgrades and optimization, mobile and wireless initiatives, security, and IP telephony.(Source : Gartner Survey)</li></ul>Trends in Bandwidth Usage<br />So what? Transformational Technology including SaaS and Cloud are reliant upon network connectivity<br />C2<br />
    37. 37. c2 Digested<br />14<br /><ul><li>In the short-run FCoE may not drive a lot of demand, in the long-run, the effect on the industry may prove positive (IDC)
    38. 38. Analysts consider NAS and iSCSI more mature in large complex networks
    39. 39. IDC contends 10Gps Ethernet will spur interest in FCoE esp. with FC SAN installed
    40. 40. Gartner extols an explicit need for 10Gps switches as well as 40 – 100 Gps Backbone</li></ul>Data<br />Storage<br />Data Center Ethernet<br />SAN, FCoE, iSCSI, NAS (FEB, FBI)<br />Network<br />Convergence<br />Ping, Points, Fabric and Pipe<br />C2<br />
    41. 41. c2 Digested<br />The Network<br />15<br />Noteworthy Technology: Enterprise WAN, WAN Optimization, IP VPN, Ethernet, Application Acceleration (Not exhaustive / Team Analysis)<br />By tying products and Solution Sets to key OSI Layers we can better understand horizontal expansion within Connectivity and Communications segment<br />Example: VPN<br />C2<br />
    42. 42. c2 Digested<br />16<br />Enabling the High Performance Workforce is central to adoption of UCC, Mobile and Wireless Solutions and, a key aspect of Business Transformation<br />C2<br />
    43. 43. c2 Digested<br />17<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />Pervasive capabilities to enhance ways work gets done:<br />C2<br />
    44. 44. c2 Digested<br />Pervasive capabilities to enhance ways work gets done:<br />18<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />C2<br />
    45. 45. c2 Digested<br />19<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />C2<br />
    46. 46. c2 Digested<br />20<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />C2<br />
    47. 47. c2 Digested<br />21<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />C2<br />
    48. 48. c2 Digested<br />22<br />UCC, Mobile & Wireless<br />C2<br />
    49. 49. Considerations<br />Connectivity Strategy as part of Transformation Roadmap<br />FTTx, Connectivity Architecture, Convergence (Fabric Enablement: FCOE/10gps)<br />Smarter Pipe Strategy<br />Do you know your end customers CSP/ISP? Do you want to? Can you work with them to deliver better C2 services? Can we help?<br />Meet our Telco Team:<br />5/17/2011<br />23<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    50. 50. c2 “Value Box”<br />Services <br />Products<br />AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST<br />Suppliers<br />Capabilities<br />
    51. 51. Summary<br />25<br /><ul><li>Enterprise and consumer bandwidth demand, network complexity and the mobile / wireless movement are motivating transformation from the infrastructure to the application
    52. 52. The network is extending into everything we do. As contextual awareness, location-based services and alternative delivery models move into the mainstream, a deeper understanding of how the network works and how to keep it “effective and efficient” becomes critical
    53. 53. The “Bottom-line” CIOs are focused on efficiency, automation and management within their infrastructure and networks. Key technologies such as 10Gps Ethernet and FCoEare forecast to gain appeal – especially with increasing storage and networking demands
    54. 54. While analysts conclude these technologies are somewhat unproven, FCoE holds promise for reducing cost, power, cooling, space and, will gain traction as 10Gps (DCE) gains more market appeal
    55. 55. UCC, Mobile & Wireless is a significant part of the Connectivity and Communications stack. Demand for mobile devices continues to grow and this will ultimately spur new requirements from a HW, SW perspective</li></li></ul><li>Resources & Acknowledgements<br />5/17/2011<br />26<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    56. 56. Questions, comments, stories, opinions?<br />5/17/2011<br />27<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    57. 57. Contact Information<br />Eliot C. Arnold<br />Sales Intelligence<br />Arrow Electronics, Inc.<br />P: 303-824-4114<br /><br />IM: Arrowinsight<br />5/17/2011<br />28<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />
    58. 58. 5/18/2011<br />29<br />Arrow Confidential | Do Not Distribute<br />