Report key highlights: Indonesia economic performance in light of falling coal prices and its impact on the infrastructure sector; Indonesia construction spend 2010-2020; Historical and future construction spend by 6 Economic corridors in Indonesia; PPP projects growth in Indonesia, Preferred PPP concession type in Indonesia, Indonesia PPP regulations and framework; Indonesia project schedule overruns (time overrun) and reasons for project time overruns by sector, List of infrastructure projects in Indonesia with time overruns; average project IRR (internal rate of return) by sector; Indonesia infrastructure project financing methods, project debt equity ratio and list of top financiers.Indonesia power / electricity detailed analysis including electricity demand and supply, Indonesia power generation projects by fuel type, market share of top power producers by capacity and project spend, list of top planned power projects; Indonesia railway sector outlook – railway projects spend, top rail authorities and operators, demand and supply; Indonesia oil and gas sector analysis including project spend, market share of top owners, Indonesia oil and gas reserves and future growth opportunities; Indonesia road projects and spend analysis. Indonesia as an emerging country is outplaying all other economies by setting its focus on the infrastructure development. With the target of achieving GDP growth of 7-9%, the country is heavily investing in improving the quality and quantity of infrastructure. Under the pressure of extreme electricity shortage and lack of adequate transport facilities, the country’s progress is being directly impacted. To tackle the same, the Government is seen taking some serious steps to incentivize investments like the launch of Infrastructure Guarantee Fund Project (IIGFP) in May 2010 to evaluate the PPP funding by providing Government guarantees. However, the country remains under the threat of its inefficient execution plans. One of a key hurdle is the availability of financing resources that makes it mandatory for the Government to attract local and international investors. The other is the poor implementation of the infrastructure investment plans. Though Government had announced billion dollar of investment, there was not much happening in the direction. But after its GDP declining in 2013 to 5.8% – lowest in 5 years, Indonesian Government is likely to be even more thoughtful of fast implementation of its infrastructure investment plans. As recently observed, the Government is becoming stern to improve the country’s infrastructure and already took a few steps in the direction. By Q3 2015, Ministry of Public works had already tendered ~90% of the planned project, and was allotted USD 22 billion from the 2015 budget. As per the ‘BrikStats Megaprojects Database’, Indonesia has a large pool of infrastructure projects worth USD 300 billion.

1. INDONESIA 2016
CONSTRUCTION
OUTLOOK:
INFRASTRUCTURE
OPPORTUNITIES WITH
RELATIVE RISK AND
CHALLENGES
BRIKSTATS CONSULTING
www.brikstats.com
May 2016 Edition

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OUTLOOK
Page | 1
Table of Content 1-7
Preface 8-9
Indonesia Megaprojects Coverage in the 'BrikStats Megaprojects Database’ 10-11
1: South East Asia Economic Performance 12
1.1: Overall Regional Economic Performance 12
Figure 1: Share of South East Asia GDP in Total Asia GDP, 2005-2017 13
Figure 2: Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the South East Asia, 2010-2014 14
1.2: Country Level Economic Performance 15
Figure 3: GDP Growth by Countries in the South East Asia region, 2010-
2014
15
Figure 4: Control of Corruption Rank by Country, 2010-2013 16
1.3: Relative Positioning of Indonesia in the South East Asia region 17
1.3. A: Growth opportunities in the Indonesia market 17-18
Figure 5: Indonesia Rank in Top Coal Producers - Share in Global Coal
Production, 2013
19
Figure 6: Indonesia Coal Exports, Million tons, 2002-2013 20
Figure 7: Indonesia Coal Exports To Other Countries: Share by Country,
2013
21
Figure 8: Indonesia Economic Development (Including Infrastructure) Plans
at 3 main levels
22
1.3. B: Indonesia Market Challenges 23 - 24
Figure 9: Impact of Change of Coal Prices on Indonesia’ GDP growth rate 25
Figure 10: Indonesia Poverty Rate and Corresponding Impact on the
Economic Growth
26
2: South East Asia Construction Market Size: Infrastructure Megaprojects
Investment by Country and Indonesia Highlights
27

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Figure 11: Planned and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend in the
South East Region, By Country
28
Figure 12: South East Asia - Ongoing Projects by Country with Indonesia’s
Share
29
3: Megaprojects Infrastructure Opportunities in Indonesia: Detailed View 30
3.1: Indonesia Overall Infrastructure Investment and Spend 30
Figure 13: Indonesia Total Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend and Project
Size: By Project Status
31
3.2: Indonesia Infrastructure Investment and Spend – Sector View 32
3.2. A: Indonesia Infrastructure Investment and Spend – Historical Spend by Sector 32-33
Figure 14: Indonesia Historical Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend and
Project Size: Detailed Sector View
34
3.2. B: Indonesia Infrastructure Investment and Spend – Upcoming or Planned Spend
by Sector
35
Figure 15: Indonesia Master Plan - Infrastructure Investment Plans till 2025:
Sector Spend
36
Figure 16: Indonesia Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend and
Project Size: Detailed Sector View
38
3.3: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects By Provinces and Sectors:
Development through Indonesia – The ‘6’ Economic Corridors
39
Figure 17: Indonesia Six Economic Corridors and Respective Capabilities 40
Figure 18: Indonesia Infrastructure Master Plan – Spend by ‘Six Economic
Corridors ‘till 2025
41
Figure 19: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects
Spend: By Province
43
Indonesia Sector Priorities By Different Provinces 44
Figure 20: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects
Spend By Province: Sector Split
45

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4: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects - Public and Private Sector
Ownership: Detailed Analysis
46
4.1: Change in Infrastructure Ownership: Split by Public, Private and PPP 46
Figure 21: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects:
Ownership by Public, Private and Public Private Partnership
47
4.2: Role of the Private Sector in Infrastructure Megaprojects and Operating
Model
48
Figure 22: Indonesia Private Ownership in Infrastructure Megaprojects:
Spend By Project Status and Operating Model (Joint venture / Partnership or
Standalone)
49
4.3: Change in Infrastructure Ownership by Public and Private: Sector View 50
Figure 23: Indonesia Infrastructure Historical and Upcoming Megaprojects –
Sector Spend by Private and Public Owned projects
51
5: Public Private Partnership (PPP) in Infrastructure Megaprojects in
Indonesia
52
5.1: Growth of Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in Indonesia Infrastructure
Megaprojects
52
5.2: Implementation Models of Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in Indonesia
Infrastructure Megaprojects: Concession Types
53
Figure 24: Indonesia Public Private Partnership (PPP) Infrastructure
Megaprojects Spend: By Project Status and Concession type
54
5.3: Role of Public Private Partnerships (PPP) in Indonesia Infrastructure
Megaprojects: By Sectors
55
Figure 25: Upcoming PPP Infrastructure Megaprojects in Indonesia: By
Sectors
56
Figure 26: Historical and Upcoming PPP Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend
in Indonesia: By Sectors
57

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OUTLOOK
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5.4: Effectiveness and Efficiency of PPPs in Indonesia: Compared to Other
South East Asian Countries
58-59
Figure 27: Comparison of Upcoming Spend on PPP Infrastructure
Megaprojects in South East Asia with PPP Readiness Index: By Countries
60
6: Assessing Project Risks in the Indonesia Infrastructure
61
6.1: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Time Overruns/ Variations
62
Figure 28: Indonesia Infrastructure Time Overrun: Share of Megaprojects
Undergoing Time Overrun – Detailed Sector Level
63
6.2: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Time and Schedule
Overruns/Variations: Contributing Factors / Reasons
64
Figure 29: Indonesia Infrastructure Time Overrun: Contributing Factors or
Reasons for Delay and Corresponding Impact on Time Revisions
65
7: Recent and Strategic Trends in the Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects
66
7.1: Greenfield versus Brownfield Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend in
Indonesia
66
Figure 30: Indonesia Infrastructure: Greenfield versus Brownfield
Megaprojects Spend – By Project Status
67
7.2: Change in Average Project Size of Infrastructure Megaprojects: Sectors
Comparison
68
Figure 31: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects: Comparison of Average
Project Size By Sectors with Regional Average
69
8: Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Project Financing 70
8.1: Sources of Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Project Financing: Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) Growth in Indonesia and Relevance to Megaprojects
70
Figure 32: Indonesia Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): 2010-2014 71

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Figure 33: Indonesia Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): By Province /
Economic, 2010 - 2014
72
Figure 34: Indonesia Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) By Source
Country, 2014
74
8.2: Sources of Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Project Financing: Official
Development Assistance (ODA) Growth in Indonesia and Relevance to
Megaprojects
75
Figure 35: Indonesia Total Official Development Assistance (ODA): By Top
Donors, 2008-2013
76
Figure 36: List of Top Infrastructure Megaprojects Financed Using Official
Development Assistance (ODA) - By Donor
77
8.3: Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Project Financing: Project Debt to Equity
Ratio with a Sector View
78
Figure 37: Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Project Financing: Debt to Equity
Ratio by Sector
79
9: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Return Analysis: Internal Rate of
Return (IRR) at Sector level
80
Figure 38: Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Projects Average Internal Rate of
Return (IRR): For Mining, Oil and Gas, Roads and Railways
81
10: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Growth, Opportunities and
Challenges: Sector Deep Dives
82
10.1: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Sector Deep dive: Power Sector 82
10.1.A: Current Status of Power Infrastructure in Indonesia: Electricity - A Growing
Concern
82
Figure 39: Indonesia Electricity Demand- Historical and Forecasted, 2013-
2022
83
Figure 40: Indonesia Electrification Rate and Population without Electricity,
Compared to Other South East Asian Countries, 2012
84
Figure 41: Indonesia Forecasted or Targeted Electrification Rate as per
Master Plan, 2014-2022
85

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10.1.B: Indonesia Government Measures to Tackle the Growing Electricity
Challenges
86 - 87
Figure 42: Indonesia Power Production by PT PLN and Independent Power
Producers (IPPs), 2000-2011
88
10.1.C: Indonesia Power Generation by Fuel Sources: Historical and Forecasted -
Production and Investment
89
Figure 43: Indonesia Forecasted Power Generation Capacity - Expansion
Plans: By Fuel type, 2011-2020
90
Figure 44: Indonesia Forecasted Renewable Energy Capacity Expansion
Plans: By Power Plant Type, 2011-2020
91
Indonesia Power Generation by Fuel Sources: Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend by
Type of Power Plant
92
Figure 45: Indonesia Power Generation Infrastructure Megaprojects: By Type
of Power Plant – By Project Status
93
Figure 46: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects, Power Generation
Capacity Supply: By Project Status
94
10.1-D: Indonesia Power Infrastructure Megaprojects: Trends in Ownership and Top
Investors
95
Figure 47: PT PLN and Independent Power Producers (IPP)- Power
Generation Share in Total Installed Capacity: 2011- 2020
96
Top Owners in Indonesia Power Megaprojects: By Investment and Capacity 97
Figure 48: Market Share of Top Power Projects Owners in Indonesia
Generation Capacity: By Status - Historical and Upcoming
97
10.2: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Sector Deep dive: Process
Industries Sector
98
Figure 49: Indonesia Steel Consumption from 2001-2014 and Impacts on
Domestic Production and Steel Imports, 2012-2014
99
Figure 50: Indonesia Infrastructure Industrial Megaprojects Spend: By
Project Status
100
10.3: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Sector Deep dive: Railway Sector 101
10.3.A: Indonesia Current and Planned Railway Network 101
10.3.B: Indonesia Key Owners and Operators in the Railway sector 102
Figure 51: Indonesia Railway Infrastructure Megaprojects: Overview of Key
Owners and Projects
103

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10.3.C: Indonesia Railway Infrastructure Megaprojects Investment– Historically and
Upcoming Spend
104
Figure 52: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Railway Megaprojects Spend:
Breakdown by Type of Rail
105
10.4: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Sector Deep dive: Roads Sector 106 - 107
Figure 53: Indonesia Infrastructure Road Megaproject Spend: By Project
Status
108
Figure 54: Indonesia Ongoing and Upcoming Road Megaprojects- Market
Share of Project Owners
109
Figure 55: Global Competitiveness – Quality of Roads in the South East Asia
Region and Indonesia Progress Highlights
110
10.5: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects Sector Deep dive: Oil and Gas
Sector
111
10.5.A: Indonesia has Substantial Oil and Gas Reserves 111
Figure 56: Share of Indonesia in the Gas Production and Gas Reserves within
the Asia Pacific Region, 2014
112
Figure 57: Comparison of Oil Reserves in Indonesia and Vietnam, 2001-2014 113
10.5.B: Risk of Low Oil Production and Multiplying Demand 114
Figure 58: Oil and Gas Production and Consumption in Indonesia, 2001-2014 115
10.5.C: Key Producers in Indonesia Oil and Gas Sector 116
Conclusion on the Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects 117 - 118

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3.3: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects By Provinces and Sectors: Development
through Indonesia – The ‘6’ Economic Corridors
Around the globe, ‘Concentrated development’ has been observed with fallouts when
planning country’s infrastructure. By concentrated development, we refer to partial
development in terms of areas. So far in Indonesia, megaprojects are concentrated in a few
provinces. Other remaining locations have trifling investments in ancillary infrastructure.
Since Indonesia’s infrastructure has been more focused towards energy sector, most of the
projects are circling the areas rich in natural resources. These areas are mainly Sumatra,
Kalimantan and Java.
Also under the Master plan launched in 2011 - MP3EI, an important decision was made
that included the development of economic corridors in the country based on the
capabilities and capacity of each region throughout the country. This was divided into 6
economic corridors wherein different potential of the corridors has been identified and
accordingly investments are likely to flow in.
Additionally, to help these regions harness their best potential, Government is likely to
invest more money in getting best of connectivity.

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Figure 17: Indonesia Six Economic Corridors and Respective Capabilities

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Figure 19: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects Spend:
By Province
PROJECT DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS CONCENTRATED,
WITH TOP 10 PROVINCES FORMING X% OF THE TOTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE SPEND. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN
IDENTIFIED AS THE ‘ECONOMIC CORRIDORS’
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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4.1: Change in Infrastructure Ownership: Split by Public, Private and PPP
Indonesia has been traditional in dealing with infrastructure investments in the past. Most
of the funding was coming from the Government with very limited private participation.
Where many countries are depending on private investment for the benefit of the country,
mainstream investor in Indonesia was the public sector. In Indonesia, the Government has
always played a key role in developing the country’s infrastructure with very limited
private participation. This is also a result of lack of interest from private investors. Setting
profitable vision in Indonesia’s infrastructure business has been an up stretched ask. This
has been mainly due to difficulty in doing business in Indonesia due to non-conducive
environment, high corruption, legal and political issues in the country. Hence Government
or State owned entities had to steer most of the mega projects.
Historically, Indonesia’s public sector involvement was much higher than most of its peers
like Philippines, Vietnam or Malaysia. Government owned projects accounted for 60-70%
of the historical projects in Indonesia, where Philippines had even less than 40% of
Government owned projects.
Additionally, the private companies in Indonesia were more attracted towards mining and
oil and gas projects due to higher returns. For country’s fast and smooth growth, it was
further getting essential to invite these private players for other sector development like
transportation. Henceforth, efforts are being made to allure the private sector in these
megaprojects. In fact, as per project pipeline, one of the most astounding numbers is the
growth of PPP in the country. We anticipate 40% higher contracts to be awarded under
PPP format across different sectors like high speed rails or airport projects.
Chapter 4: Indonesia Infrastructure Megaprojects - Public
and Private Sector Ownership: Detailed Analysis

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Figure 21: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Infrastructure Megaprojects:
Ownership by Public, Private and Public Private Partnership
IN THE PAST, PUBLICLY OWNED ENTITIES WERE THE KEY OWNERS
AWARDING LARGE PORTION OF MEGAPROJECTS, HOWEVER THIS
MAY NOT BE THE SAME IN FUTURE WITH A PARADIGM SHIFT
TOWARDS THE PPP MODEL
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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Figure 25: Upcoming PPP Infrastructure Megaprojects in Indonesia: By Sectors
PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP IS LIMITED TO ONLY FEW SECTORS;
HAS BEEN OBSERVED MORE IN THE RAILWAY AND OIL AND GAS
PROJECTS
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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providing risk management and act as the single processor and provider of
infrastructure guarantees. It includes providing contingent support for the
Government by guaranteeing any contractual risks in relation to government
actions; improving the quality of PPP transactions; pushing for a fixed and
accountable approach for PPP implementation
o PT Sarana Multi Infrastructure Persero (PT SMI) is a non-bank financial
institution owned by the Ministry of Finance for funding of infrastructure
projects
Indonesia is clearly progressing in terms of setting up the required PPP framework. Also
with plans to close the financing gap through PPP, Indonesia already has announced strong
PPP project pipeline.
However, it is still not very well positioned in terms of its PPP operations. We observed
that projects did fail in attracting investors and few projects where investors were found,
could not achieve successful financial closure. With Government Guarantee program, we
expect that this might get partially resolved in future. The country however is majorly stuck
in another issue that holds back the completion or delivery of projects and this is – land
acquisition. Many projects in Indonesia get stuck due to site clearances and land
acquisition.
It shows the unfinished designing of PPP further translating into inefficiency in project
deliveries. Indonesia faces many important challenges and despite many investors willing
to invest their money into PPP projects in the country, land acquisition or project
operational hindrances along with legal fissures and high corruption results in fettering
progress.
To check Indonesia PPP maturity, we compared the current PPP implementation programs
in Indonesia with few other Asian countries like Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand.

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Figure 34: Indonesia Total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) By Source Country, 2014
Source: Bureau of Statistics Indonesia

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Figure 38: Indonesia Infrastructure Mega Projects Average Internal Rate of Return
(IRR): For Mining, Oil and Gas, Roads and Railways
INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN INDONESIA OFFERS AN AVERAGE IRR
OF X%, LOWEST BEING IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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Figure 45: Indonesia Power Generation Infrastructure Megaprojects: By Type of
Power Plant – By Project Status
IN TERMS OF PROJECTS, HUGE INVESTMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN
MADE INTO HYDRO PLANTS; PIPELINE HAS COAL PLANTS AND ALSO
FEW HYDRO PLANTS
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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Top Owners in Indonesia Power Megaprojects: By Investment and Capacity
As per the BrikStats Megaprojects Database, we see similar trends with PT PLN
controlling the maximum number of projects and highest capacity contribution with >X%
of the capacity contribution
Figure 48: Market Share of Top Power Projects Owners in Indonesia Generation
Capacity: By Status - Historical and Upcoming
POWER SECTOR REMAINS CONSOLIDATED WITH ONLY A FEW
PUBLICLY OWNED ENTITIES CONTROLLING LARGE PORTION OF THE
MEGAPROJECTS. MOST OF THE PROJECTS OWNED BY PT PLN ARE
BEING IMPLEMENTED IN PPP MODEL
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis

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- 10,000 km of railway network, double-track, electrification of Java main lines
- Railway share 11-13% for passenger and 15-17% for freight transport
- 7 key projects drawn under the plan are as under. Most of these have been aligned
with the developments in the 6 economic corridors. The priority will be the ones
important for the economic corridors.
o Sumatera Rail Network plan in 2030 to be 2,856 Km
o Batam Island Rail Network Plan in 2030 to be 44 Km
o Java Rail Network Plan in 2030 to be 6,324 Km
o Bali Island Rail Network Plan in 2030 to be 326 Km
o Kalimantan Rail Network Plan in 2030 to be 1,400 Km
o Sulawesi Rail Network Plan in 2030 to be 500 Km
o Papua Rail Network Plan in 2030 along 500 Km
10.3-B: Indonesia Key Owners and Operators in the Railway sector
Ministry of Transportation in Indonesia is the main governing body in the railway sector
and PT KAI as the primary operator of currently existing networks. Below chart depicts
different companies currently involved in the country’s railway sector.

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Figure 52: Indonesia Historical and Upcoming Railway Megaprojects Spend:
Breakdown by Type of Rail
Source: BrikStats Megaprojects Database, Team analysis