Briefly discusses the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, Taiwan and the Sino-Indian border

1. WAR CLOUDS GATHER ON INDIA'S HORIZON
SHANTANU BASU
War clouds are ominously gathering on India's flanks. To the North, Russia is threatening to
invade and annex Ukraine that the White House says it will militarily resist. Again, to the
North, China is flexing its muscles on the Siliguri-Doklam Corridor (Chicken's Neck) and in
Arunachal Pradesh (Ar. P.). In the IOR, Chinese patrol and attack submarines, aside from
warships, are showing expansive war time deployment, keeping the Indian Navy on war
patrolling.
To the Southeast, PLAAF has repeatedly violated Taiwanese air space and created forward
air bases by reclaiming land from disputed parts of the South China Sea. For its part, the US
response has been in birthing a loose alliance in the Quad apart from deploying battle carrier
groups in the South China Sea.
What is common to both China and Russia is the 'Strong Man' culture - Vladimir Putin and
Xi Xinping. Both share a common view of Imperial China and Russia backed by huge
financial heft today. Both see unequal treaties entered by Western powers as having truncated
their respective nations at a time when they were weak and most vulnerable. These countries
have, over the last 30 years, rebuilt their economies and invested hugely in their defence
forces, imparting them the offensive edge (the annexation of Crimea was a curtain raiser).
To the contrary, the Western powers have ageing defence equipment and conscript armies,
although, overall, their collective firepower will probably remain more, for the next five
years, or thereabouts. Above all, Putin and Xi need to show something to stay President for
life in their respective countries, that too in the face of rising domestic opposition to their
expansionist polices and severe repression.
Russia has used its vast reserves of oil and natural gas to extend its political and economic
reach into Europe, where nearly all countries depend on it for survival (heating). Extending
newer pipelines via Ukraine has caused the issue of annexation to arise in Putin's mind. Oil
and gas revenues have helped the Russian budget to show steady annual surplus. The Russian
Northern Fleet has steadily expanded and today actively patrols the Bering Straits, that, with
global warming, may become the shortest sea passage from Asia to Europe, in the next
decade or two.
On the other hand, China today accounts for over 20% of global manufactured output and
trade and slated to grow manifold with multilateral FTAs like RCEP. Unlike Italy and
Germany of the 1930s that left their flanks unguarded, Russia and China have built
formidable conventional and space-based economic and military arsenals, out of the reach of
most Western weapon systems. China's giant manufacturing base today powers the world's
telecom, energy, shipping, rail, and most other infrastructure. This enables China to penetrate
into these system overseas with malware, cause blackouts, mass transit outages, telecom and
broadcasting systems, 'listen' to Internet chatter and countless other options of soft warfare.
Russia has not only demonstrated its strike capability in Syria but also used it to test their
new equipment, aside from allegedly penetrated the US Presidential electoral system.
Likewise, China has extended its economic clout and military presence to Pakistan, Djibouti
and many other unknown littoral countries that abut the IOR and Persian Gulf, aside from
adding scores of rockets & missiles, warships and drone air forces. Last, but not the least, is
the one-party stranglehold of the local communist parties and the willingness to deal, often

2. brutally and fatally, with their enemies and dissidents without the attendant concerns of a
democracy.
Buoyed by almost a half century of economic prosperity after 1995, the Western Powers
steadily and willingly ceded their manufacturing and technology edge, indeed economic
muscle, to China and Russia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Laos,
Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines. The end result was a tectonic shift in the global
power balance from the Western Hemisphere, eastward. That is why the conflict zone of the
world now centres on south, SE, East Asia and Russia. Were another World War to unhappily
erupt, it would be in Asia in an East v. West trial of strength.
In 1914 and 1939, war was an ocean away for the US; today it is several oceans removed and
more than half way from the nearest American mainland or Western Europe while China and
Russia will fight from their home bases. As if that were not enough, all the above named
countries have a dark colonial past with the Western Powers that has embedded a deep inter-
generational mistrust in local populations. The methods deployed by colonizers were no less
repressive than what China and Russia use today. The sight of a resurgent China and Russia,
the largest countries in this region, has created economic opportunity and unparalleled
prosperity for others in this region, far closer home than at any time in the past. Therefore,
entering into war with China or Russia is far from their ideal.
At the same time, overseas wars with substantial costs in finances and human resources has
become a stronger emotive issue with US voters, way beyond the days when Lyndon Johnson
entered Vietnam. Trump's 'bring our boys home' slogan partly won him the Presidency. Biden
has only followed in his footsteps in hastily exiting from Afghanistan, after a Russo-Chinese
brokered agreement via Qatar in early-2020.Reconginzing the Chinese power house, Trump
brokered a trade agreement for $200 billion trade between the US and China while Biden
talked of ambiguous 'strategic engagement' with China.
In simpler terms, neither the US nor its Allies are prepared militarily or economically to take
on the building combined Sino-Russian offensive. Western anti-war domestic politics may
also force their hand to keep involvement limited to sanctions, naval blockades, nuclear
threats, etc. given Russian threats in Europe and Chinese ones in south and SE Asia.
For China, humbling India by annexing Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh and parts of
Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand (shortest route to Mansarovar) and cutting off NE India
by occupying the Chicken's Neck, may be, yet, the most direct warning to the Western
Powers of identical near future action on Taiwan. Media reports today suggest that China has
started a large military build-up in Himachal Pradesh as well, aside from substantial
accretions to men and heavy assault equipment in Northern, Eastern and NE India.
For India to sustain a 4-5 front war - HP, UK, WB, Ar. P and Pakistan plus militarily
supporting (mostly naval) any Western military alliance against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
would be well-nigh impossible with its dead economy and flatulent, intellect-neutral infantile
apex leadership labouring under a misplaced fostering of majoritarian nationalism while
clinging to a seven-decade old military doctrine that only saw Pak as Enemy No. 1. India has
burnt its bridges with all its neighbours, nearly all of which have turned to China for its
economic lucre; to expect logistical support from these against China would breach their
neutrality. For instance, would Bangladesh or Myanmar allow over flights by missions of
mercy by IAF and Indian civilian planes to rescue Indian troops stranded in NE India if the
Chicken's Neck is occupied by Chinese invading forces?
That is what renders our military brave hearts in Eastern and NE India as vulnerable as Gen.
Niazi's troops in East Pakistan on Dec. 16, 1971. To expect military intervention by the

3. Western Powers is as unrealistic as is Indian support to Taiwan. A Russian gas-starved
Europe with steadily rising oil prices is an immitigable humanitarian disaster for Europe as
winter sets in. Likewise, an US economy that is virtually living off affordable Chinese
manufacturing will suddenly face an unfathomable vacuum as its economy grinds to a
complete halt.
For China, the Western world retains its biggest trading partner while Russia is dependent on
oil and gas revenue from sales to Europe and globally. The Western Powers and India may
have no option but to cede more space to both Russia (in Ukraine for the Nordstrom2
pipeline) and China, even if that means redrawing India's boundaries.
Taiwan is too valuable to be ceded to China. Besides, ceding Taiwan would imply giving up
control over prosperous SE Asia and imperil Japan. That is something Western Powers will
certainly not allow. A naval blockade of the Straits of Malacca and a ring of fire around
Taiwan will be almost impossible for China to break even with back door Russian aid.
Similar naval blockades would equally affect Chinese supply lines. However, the PLAN is
rich in the number of ships (almost all newer than 10 years old) that can be a boon even when
faced by a smaller flotilla with superior fire power.
Indians can only be hope and pray that the Western Powers, China and Russia do not use
India as the pawn in what seems to be the makings of a major conflict zone. That is what we
have done since 1949 and the China laissez faire passage since 2014. Or we can beat our
dinner plates, pots and pans and collectively scream 'Bhaag Cheen, bhaag' from the pulpit of
Raisina Hill.
The author is a senior public policy researcher and commentator