Apresentação utilizada pelo ministro da SAE/PR e presidente do Ipea, Marcelo Neri, no Fórum Acadêmico dos BRICS, realizado nos dias 18 e 19 de março de 2014, no Rio de Janeiro. Mais informações: : www.sae.gov.br

1. Inclusive Sustainable Development ?
BRAZIL and the Middle Path
Marcelo Neri

2. USA
ChinaBrazil
Russia
India
1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PercentileofWorldwideIncomeDistribution
1 25 50 75 100
Every Country
Source: Milotovic (2011) Year 2005 see Neri (2011)
Income distribution:
a worldwide comparison
“Brazil is everywhere in terms of the
world income distribution, from the
poorest to the richest”

3. Source: Milovic (2011) Year 2005 see Neri (2011)
Brazil as a Small World
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2009
2012
2000
2001
Year
GiniCoefficient
.75
.65
.55
.45
0,535
0,581
0,589
0,607
0,526
0,539
0,594
China Effect Chindia Effect
Inequality Across Nations
Brazil GDP Per Capita PPP in 2012
is 93,7% of the World Mean
Growth 2001-12:
3.49% Brazil X3,58% World
Inequality Within Brazil

4. Cummulative Growth 2001-2012(%)
120.2%
102.5%
92.1%
84.4%
77.3%
69.8%
58.9%
49.3%
36.7%
26.4%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CummulativeGrowth(%)
Per capita Income Deciles
Cummulative Real Per Capita Growth by
Income Deciles - Brazil
Source : IPEA, from microdata of PNAD/IBGE

5. 2002 to 2012 – Annual Income Change
Source: IPEA, from microdata of PNAD/IBGE
Horizontal Inequality
Annual real growth of household income per capita
for selected groups, between 2002 and 2012
Mean
4.7 5.0 5.0
5.2
6.0
6.6
Small mucipality Incomplete Primary
Education
Northeast Blacks Rural area No education

6. % Population with Incomes
Below U$ 1,25 a day PPP
Fonte: IPEA / SAE a partir do Censo/IBGE
Extreme Poverty

7. Fonte: IPEA / SAE a partir do Censo/IBGE
% Population with Incomes
Below U$ 1,25 a day PPP

8. Poverty
6.47%
-13.75%
-28.54%
-40.24%
-46.42%
-57.90% -58.22% -60.62%
-63.01%
-69.29%-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poverty Accumulated Variation since 2002
Millennium development goal
U$S 1,25 PPP - Day
Source: IPEA, from microdata by PNAD/IBGE

9. Component that
Explains
Proportion of extreme poor
% of total fall
Income growth 50,5%
Inequality fall 49,5%
Total 100
Dynamic breaking down
of poverty Changes in
Brazil, 2002-2012
Fonte: IPEA a partir dos microdados da PNAD/IBGE
What best explains inclusion ?
Growth or Equality ?
Middle Path

10. Determinants of Variations in Per Capita
Income Distribution Inequality* and Mean
BPC
Bolsa
Familia
Labour
Effect
Social Security
54,9% 76,41%
12,2% 2,35%
20,8% 19,33%
5,4% 2%
* Gini
In terms of inequality, what is the most
effective combination of social transfers?
Every additional R$ spent with Bolsa Familia
impacts inequality 369% e 86% more than
in social security and BPC, respectively.