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ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE
             DEVELOPMENT




  I M S ( I P M U LTI M E DIA
  S U BS Y S TE M ) S TATU S
  R E PO RT: M OV I N G U P
       TH E S L O PE O F
    E N L I GH TE N M E N T
AN INDEPENDENT AND QUANTIFIED VIEW
OF WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH IMS IN THE
        TELECOMS INDUSTRY.


  LTE AND RCSE/RCS5 DRIVE RAPID IMS
  ADOPTION IN MOBILE, FIXED/CABLE
 ADOPTION SLOWS. FOCUS CHANGES TO
        IMPLEMENTATION AND
COMMERCIALIZATION BE ST PRACTICES AS
 SOME IMS DEPLOYMENTS EXPE RIENCE
        SIGNIFICANT OUTAGES.




      © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                            ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012



                             CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS                                                 9



FOREWORD                                                        10



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                               12

COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 2009 AND 2012 SURVEYS                    12
RCS / RCSE CONFUSION                                            21
OTHER 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS                                      27
TELECOM REVENUES: INCREASING UNCERTAINTY                        27
VOLTE                                                           32
CLOUD AND IMS                                                   34
FINANCIALS                                                      35
IMS SERVICES                                                    37
OTHER TOPICS                                                    37
CASE STUDIES                                                    38
WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2009              40
WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2012              40
RECOMMENDATIONS                                                 41
OPERATOR RECOMMENDATIONS                                        41
NETWORK EQUIPMENT RECOMMENDATIONS                               43
SERVICE LAYER COMPONENT (E.G. SERVICE BROKER) RECOMMENDATION    44
MOBILE HANDSET VENDORS                                          45
APPLICATION DEVELOPER RECOMMENDATIONS                           45
INVESTOR RECOMMENDATIONS                                        45
A FINAL NOTE                                                    46

INTRODUCTION                                                    47



IMS MARKET SURVEY RESULTS: COMPARING 2009 AND 2012 RESULTS      49

BACKGROUND ON THE RESEARCH                                      49
OPERATOR INTERVIEWEE ANALYSIS                                   50
SUPPLIER INTERVIEWEE ANALYSIS                                   52
IMS ACTIVITY: COMPARING 2009 AND 2012                           54
IMS BARRIERS                                                    60
VENDOR PERCEPTION RANKINGS                                      64



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                           ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12



IMS PLANS                                                                         66
VOLTE DISCUSSION                                                                  69
IMS PRICING                                                                       71
RICH COMMUNICATIONS SUITE                                                         72
ALTERNATIVES AND PATHS TO IMS                                                     82

2012 IMS SURVEY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS                                              84

STRATEGIC QUESTIONS                                                                84
ARE COMMUNICATION SERVICES TRENDING AWAY FROM THE NETWORK AND INTO THE CLOUD?
WILL TRENDS LIKE HUCS (HOSTED UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS SERVICE) LIMIT THE SCOPE OF
SERVICES ON IMS (UNTIL IMS RUNS IN THE CLOUD)? WHAT'S YOUR VIEW?                   84
IMS IN THE CLOUD, IS THIS VIABLE? THAT IS PUTTING ELEMENTS LIKE THE CSCF, HSS, IMS
APP SERVER INTO A VIRTUAL PRIVATE CLOUD. DOES IT MAKE SENSE?                       90
DEVICE / APP ECOSYSTEMS AND IMS, WITH IMESSAGE, VIBER, APPLE'S VIRTUAL SIM, ETC. HOW
IS IMS BEING POSITIONED TO MAINTAIN OPERATORS' POSITION FOR COMMUNICATION SERVICES?
SHOULD REGULATORS ALLOW THE INDUSTRY TO CREATE GLOBAL / REGIONAL / COUNTRY
XVNOS TO COMPETE WITH OTT SERVICE PROVIDERS?                                       91
IS IMS DRIVING TRANSPORT POLICY MANAGEMENT OR IS POLICY INDEPENDENT NOW
INDEPENDENT OF IMS?                                                                92
IS VOLTE DRIVING IMS? IS HD VOICE BEING SUPPORTED? HOW ARE THE DEVICE (HD MIC) /
CLIENT ISSUES BEING MANAGED?                                                       92
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT IMS DEPLOYMENT COMPARED TO THE ORIGINAL IMS
ARCHITECTURE. ARE OPERATORS FINDING OUT THEY BOUGHT IMS COMPONENTS THAT ARE NO
LONGER NEEDED OR ARE UNDER-UTILIZED? AS THE NETWORK EVOLVES IS THE DEPLOYMENT
ARCHITECTURE EVOLVING? AND IF SO HOW?                                              92
COMPARING THE CORE LTE CORE NETWORK (EPC, EVOLVED PACKET CORE) (PDN, MME, ETC)
FUNCTIONALITY TO THE ORIGINAL IMS ARCHITECTURE. ARE OPERATORS FINDING OUT THEY
BOUGHT IMS COMPONENTS (WHEN THE FOCUS WAS FIXED SERVICES) THAT ARE NO LONGER
NEEDED OR ARE UNDER-UTILIZED OR NEED TO BE REPLACED AS THEY MOVE TO LTE? FOR
EXAMPLE, HOW TO DEAL WITH DIAMETER ROUTING (THE DIAMETER PROTOCOL DOES NOT HAVE
ROUTING CAPABILITIES) AND THE MANY DIAMETER INTERFACES.                            93
DO WE NEED IMS-LITE? THAT IS A SIMPLIFIED VERSION WITH MULTIPLE ROUTE-MAPS LAID OUT
TO EASE MIGRATION, ADOPTION, AND BETTER REFLECT TODAY'S TECHNOLOGIES AND
ARCHITECTURES. PLEASE SET OUT WHAT YOU'D LIKE TO SEE.                              93
DO WE NEED AN OPEN-SOURCE IMS CLIENT? SO ITS JUST THERE LIKE IPV6. WHAT'S YOUR VIEW
ON PLAIN SIP CLIENTS VERSUS IMS CLIENTS?                                           95
PROJECT QUESTIONS                                                                  96
WHAT IS THE IMS PROJECT SIZE. WHAT IS THE SPLIT IN CAPEX / OPEX.                   96
WHAT IS MOTIVIATING THE PROJECT SPEND: SERVICE GROWTH, NEW SERVICES, OPEN
INNOVATION, SWITCH REPLACEMENT / PLATFORM EOL (END OF LIFE) / CONSOLIDATION,
COPYING OTHER OPERATORS AS THEY'RE DOING IT? (IF MULTIPLE SOURCES OF MOTIVATION
WHAT IS THE SPLIT, E.G. 50% SWITCH REPLACEMENT, 50% COPYING OTHERS)                97
IF YOU'RE NOT IMPLEMENTING IMS, WHY NOT?                                           98
WAS THERE A CLEAR ROI FOR THE IMS PROJECT? WHAT WAS THE PAYBACK PERIOD? DID YOU
INCLUDE PREVIOUS IMS-RELATED SUNK COSTS?                                           98




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© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                             ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012



WHAT ARE THE ISSUES / BARRIERS IN GETTING AN IMS PROJECT STARTED? WHAT ARE THE
ISSUES IN ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT PARITY FOR LEGACY SERVICES? THE WORD "LEGACY" IS
THE CORE SERVICE PROPOSITION AND IS HIGHLY CUSTOMISED TO EACH OPCO, IS THIS REDONE OR
DOES THE LEGACY SERVICE CHANGE?                                                    98
ARE THERE SPECIFIC EXAMPLES ON WHERE IMPROVEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ACCELERATE
MIGRATION TO IMS AS RUNNING TWO PLATFORMS IS GENERALLY MORE EXPENSIVE THAN ONE.
THE EVOLUTION ROADMAP OT IMS IS BECOMING PROTRACTED BECAUSE OF ISSUES SUCH AS
VOLTE COVERAGE AND THE NEED FOR CSFB (CIRCIUT SWITCHED FALL BACK). THIS IMPACTS
THE BUSINESS CASE AND ENDS UP ADDING COSTS AND SLOWING THE PROJECT DOWN.           99
WHERE ARE THE IMS PROJECTS: ONE TRACK, STALLED, ACCELERATED?                       99
HAVE CHARGING AND MEDIATION SYSTEMS ADAPTED TO SUPPORT IMS?                       100
HAS THE PROBLEM OF FEDERATING SUBSCRIBER PROFILE DATA FOR SERVICE ENTITLEMENT BEEN
IMS AND OTHER PLATFORMS BEEN SOLVED?                                              100
SERVICE QUESTIONS                                                                 100
IS PTT (PUSH TO TALK) STILL RELEVANT?                                             100
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH HD VOICE?                                                   100
WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH VIDEO COMMS IT'S THE CONSUMER BUSINESS BEING CEDED TO OTT?
                                                                                  101
WHAT IS YOUR VIEW ON RCS?                                                         101
HOW ARE YOU PLANNING TO IMPLEMENT RCS-E, WHAT TECHNICAL APPROACHES ARE BEING
CONSIDERED?                                                                       104
IS IMS THE ONLY APPROACH BEING CONSIDERED, OR ARE THERE REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES THAT
CAN ALSO BE USED TO SUPPORT VOLTE EVENTUALLY?                                     104
WHAT IS THE HANDSET SUPPORT SITUATION WITH RCSE?                                  104
HAS RCSE EFFECTIVELY REPLACED RCS ON THE OPERATOR ROADMAP?                        105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING UNIFIED COMMUNICATION ON IMS? HOW IS IT GOING, HOW DOES IT
COMPARE TO CLOUD BASED AND OTT SERVICES?                                          105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING VIDEO CONFERENCING ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO CLOUD
BASED AND OTT SERVICES?                                                           105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING VOICE LOGGING ON IMS?                                        105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING M2M (MACHINE TO MACHINE) ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO
SILO'ED APPROACHES (I.E. DEDICATED M2M PLATFORMS).                                105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING WIFI OFFLOAD ON IMS?                                         105
ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING IPTV ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO SILO'ED BASED
APPROACHES?                                                                       105
OTHER QUESTIONS                                                                   106
IS DIAMETER ROUTING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR VENDORS OUTSIDE OF THE EXISTING IMS
SUPPLIERS?                                                                        106
ANOTHER QUESTIONS ISSUES POINTS YOU'D LIKE TO RAISE ON IMS                        106

CASE STUDIES                                                                     108

VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS CASE STUDY                                                108
VERIZON BACKGROUND                                                               108
PRINCIPLES BEHIND VERIZON’S IMS DEPLOYMENT                                       108
BREAKING DOWN THE SILOS                                                          109
SERVICE DELIVERY ECOSYSTEM                                                       110



                                      4 OF 164
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                          ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12



INTEGRATION EXPERIENCE                                                     111
VERIZON AND VOLTE                                                          113
VERIZON’S VOLTE PLAN                                                       115
VERIZON’S IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES                                        115
CONCLUSION                                                                 116
GENERAL DISCUSSION ON WHAT OPERATORS ARE DISCOVERING IN THE PRACTICAL
IMPLEMENTATION OF IMS                                                      117
THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE THE GAP BETWEEN CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF IMS   117
IMPACT OF OVER THE TOP SERVICE TRENDS ON CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS             117
THE SUBSYSTEM INTEGRATION PROBLEM                                          118
SUMMING THE CHALLENGES UP                                                  119
CHINA MOBILE CASE STUDY                                                    121
OTE (HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION) CASE STUDY                  124
VODAFONE SPAIN SERVICE BROKER                                              126
EXPLAINING THE SERVICE BROKER                                              126
VODAFONE SPAIN HOMEZONE SERVICE                                            127
VODAFONE PORTUGAL                                                          129
GENERIC POLICY CONTROL AND CHARGING CASE STUDY                             131
APPTRIGGER (NOW METASWITCH) CASE STUDY OF AN APAC OPERATOR                 133
CASE STUDY REVIEW                                                          136
WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2009                         138
WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2012                         138

RECOMMENDATIONS                                                            139

OPERATOR RECOMMENDATIONS                                                   139
NETWORK EQUIPMENT RECOMMENDATIONS                                          140
SERVICE LAYER COMPONENT (E.G. SERVICE BROKER) RECOMMENDATION               142
MOBILE HANDSET VENDORS                                                     142
APPLICATION DEVELOPER RECOMMENDATIONS                                      142
INVESTOR RECOMMENDATIONS                                                   143
A FINAL NOTE                                                               143

APPENDIX 1: IMS QUESTIONNAIRE                                              144

IMS QUESTIONNAIRE 2011/2012                                                144
STRATEGIC QUESTIONS                                                        144
PROJECT QUESTIONS                                                          144
SERVICE QUESTIONS                                                          145
OTHER QUESTIONS                                                            146
QUESTIONS FROM PREVIOUS SURVEY - PLEASE ANSWER SO WE CAN TRACK MARKET
PROGRESS (THESE ARE MUCH SIMPLER AND QUICKER TO COMPLETE THAN THE PREVIOUS
QUESTIONS)                                                                 146
1) RESPONDENT TYPE:                                                        146
2) IMS STATUS:                                                             146




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© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                             ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012



3) WHEN DO YOU PLAN TO DEPLOY COMMERCIAL SERVICES ON IMS (THAT IS MULTIPLE LIVE
COMMERCIAL SERVICES ARE BEING MIGRATED ONTO THE IMS PLATFORM, ITS NOT A SILO
IMPLEMENTATION)                                                                 147
4) SERVICES DEPLOYED ON IMS: VOICE EMULATION, IP CENTREX / UNIFIED
COMMUNICATIONS, SIP TRUNKING, PUSH TO TALK, ETC.                                147
5) VENDOR RANKINGS (SCORE BETWEEN 1-5, 1-VERY POOR, 2-POOR, 3-AVERAGE, 4-GOOD, 5-
VERY GOOD)                                                                      147
6) BARRIERS TO STARTING THE IMS PROJECT. JUST MARK WITH AN X TO INDICATE MAIN ONES,
ADD MORE XS RELATIVE TO ITS IMPORTANCE.                                         147
7) IMS LAUNCH SERVICES. JUST MARK WITH AN X TO INDICATE MAIN ONES, ADD MORE XS IF
IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT.                                                          148
8) SERVICE DRIVERS FOR IMS                                                      149
9) IMS PRICING                                                                  149
10) BARRIERS TO IMS PROJECT EXPANSION (OPERATORS / SUPPLIERS)                   149
11) RCS AWARENESS, VIEWS, PLANS, INITIAL MARKET REACTION                        149
12) ALTERNATIVES TO IMS AND IMS MIGRATION PLANS                                 150
13) ALTERNATIVES TO IMS AND IMS MIGRATION PLANS                                 150
14) ANYOTHER QUESTIONS ISSUES POINTS YOU'D LIKE TO RAISE ON IMS                 150

APPENDIX 2 – ACRONYMS                                                          151



APPENDIX 3 – COMPANIES INTERVIEW                                               157

OPERATORS                                                                      157
SUPPLIERS                                                                      159

APPENDIX 4: GSM WIDEBAND VOICE ISSUES                                          161

PROS / DRIVERS:                                                                161
CONS STOPPING OPERATORS:                                                       161
NETWORK ISSUES                                                                 161
GERAN                                                                          163
UTRAN                                                                          163
CAPACITY                                                                       163
HANDSET ISSUES                                                                 164
VOIP AND IMS ISSUES                                                            164
MARKETING AND BUSINESS CASE ISSUES                                             164




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© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                              ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12




                     TA BLE O F FI GU RE S
Figure 1. Operator IMS activity, and Distribution by Operator Type 2009 Survey _________________ 15
Figure 2. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type, 2012 Survey _________________ 16
Figure 3. Live IMS Services, 2009 Survey _________________________________________________ 17
Figure 4. Live IMS Services, 2012 Survey _________________________________________________ 18
Figure 5. Cumulative Percentage of Operators by year they anticipate starting IMS Deployment, 2009
and 2012 Surveys ____________________________________________________________________ 19
Figure 6. IMS Barrier and Frequency of Occurrence from Operators for 2009 and 2012 (Order by 2009
prioritization) _______________________________________________________________________ 21
Figure 7. RCS and RCSe Relationship ___________________________________________________ 24
Figure 8. Core Concept of RCSe: Extending the Communications Stack into the IP World _________ 24
Figure 9. iMessage Proposition: Free SMS _______________________________________________ 25
Figure 10. Example of iMessage’s Ability to Substitute SMS Revenue __________________________ 25
Figure 11. WhatsApp Experience: Over The Top Messaging _________________________________ 26
Figure 12. Viber Application: Over The Top Voice _________________________________________ 26
Figure 13. Estimates of Compound Annual Growth Rates for 2013 are Becoming Increasingly
Uncertain __________________________________________________________________________ 28
Figure 14. Time Frame for when Voice Will Become ‘Just an App’ on the Network _______________ 29
Figure 15. Time Frame for when SMS will become ‘just an app’ on the Network _________________ 30
Figure 16. Optimistic View of Total Telecom Revenue _______________________________________ 31
Figure 17. Pessimistic View of the Total Telecom Revenues (ignore VAS) _______________________ 32
Figure 18. Consensus Estimates on VoLTE and RCS / RCSe Launches _________________________ 33
Figure 19. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 35
Figure 20. Split between Operator and Supplier Interviews 2009 and 2012 ______________________ 50
Figure 21. Geographical Distribution of Operators Interviewed 2009 and 2012 ___________________ 50
Figure 22. Operator Types Interviewed 2009 and 2012 ______________________________________ 51
Figure 23. Distribution of Operator Interviews by Role 2009 and 2012 _________________________ 52
Figure 24. Geographical Distribution of Suppliers Interviewed ________________________________ 52
Figure 25. Distribution of Supplier Interviews by Role ______________________________________ 53
Figure 26. Distribution of Supplier Interviews by Type of Supplier _____________________________ 53
Figure 27. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type 2009 ______________________ 56
Figure 28. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type 2012 ______________________ 57
Figure 29. Live IMS Services, 2009 _____________________________________________________ 59
Figure 30. Live IMS Services, 2012 ______________________________________________________ 59
Figure 31. IMS Barrier and Frequency of Occurrence from Operators for 2009 and 2012 (Order by
2009 prioritization) ___________________________________________________________________ 63
Figure 32. Supplier Ranking of Barriers __________________________________________________ 64
Figure 33. IMS Vendor Ranking (Perception based) 2009 Results _____________________________ 65
Figure 34. IMS Vendor Ranking Regional Variation, 2009 __________________________________ 65
Figure 35. IMS Vendor Ranking Regional Variation, 2012 ___________________________________ 66
Figure 36. Cumulative Percentage of Operators by year they anticipate starting IMS Deployment, 2009
___________________________________________________________________________________ 67
Figure 37. Estimate of the Initial Application of IMS _______________________________________ 68
Figure 38. Potential Service Drivers _____________________________________________________ 69
Figure 39. Consensus View on VoLTE and RCS / RCSe Launches ____________________________ 70
Figure 40. IMS Price Range per Region (Cost per Subscriber in US Dollars), 2009 _______________ 71
Figure 41. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 72
Figure 42. Rich Communication Suite Results, 2009 ________________________________________ 74
Figure 43. View on RCS / RCSe in 2012 Survey ____________________________________________ 75
Figure 44. RCS, VoLTE and MMTel Serivces (source Dan Warren GSMA) _____________________ 76
Figure 45. RCS and RCSe Relationship __________________________________________________ 78



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                                ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012


Figure 46. Core Concept of RCSe: Extending the Communications Stack into the IP World ________ 79
Figure 47. iMessage Proposition: Free SMS_______________________________________________ 80
Figure 48. Example of iMessage’s Ability to Substitute SMS Revenue _________________________ 80
Figure 49. WhatsApp Experience: Over The Top Messaging _________________________________ 81
Figure 50. Viber Application: Over The Top Voice _________________________________________ 81
Figure 51. Alternatives and Paths to IMS, 2009 ____________________________________________ 83
Figure 52. Time Frame for when Voice will become ‘just an app’ on the Network ________________ 85
Figure 53. Time Frame for when SMS will become ‘just an app’ on the Network_________________ 87
Figure 54. Skype’s Domination of International Call Traffic _________________________________ 88
Figure 55. Estimates of Compound Annual Growth Rates for 2013 are Becoming Increasingly
Uncertain __________________________________________________________________________ 88
Figure 56. Optimistic View of Total Telecom Revenue _______________________________________ 89
Figure 57. Pessimistic View of the Total Telecom Revenues (ignore VAS) _______________________ 90
Figure 58. Simplified IMS Architecture Options (source Pieter Veenstra, KPN) __________________ 95
Figure 59. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 97
Figure 60. RCS, VoLTE and MMTel Serivces (source Dan Warren GSMA) ____________________ 102
Figure 61. Diameter Signaling Router Architecture (source Tekelec) __________________________ 106
Figure 62. Verizon’s IMS and SDE Vision (source Verizon) _________________________________ 109
Figure 63. Shared Infrastructure Vision (source Verizon) __________________________________ 112
Figure 64. Legacy Integration (source Verizon) ___________________________________________ 112
Figure 65. Verizon’s Contiguous 4G Spectrum ___________________________________________ 114
Figure 66. Verizon’s VoLTE Roadmap __________________________________________________ 114
Figure 67. China Mobile Network Architecture (source Huawei) _____________________________ 122
Figure 68. China Mobile Target Architecture (source Huawei)_______________________________ 122
Figure 69. CMCC Service Roadmap (source Huawei) ______________________________________ 123
Figure 70. OTE IMS Service Roadmap (source Huawei) ____________________________________ 125
Figure 71. Typical Prior Situation (source OpenCloud) _____________________________________ 126
Figure 72. Service Broker Extending Pre-pay Applications (source OpenCloud) _________________ 127
Figure 73. Vodafone Spain Service Broker Scenario (source OpenCloud) ______________________ 128
Figure 74. Service Broker / Service Capability Interaction Manager Function __________________ 129
Figure 75. Policy Control and Charging: The Plan (source OpenCloud) _______________________ 131
Figure 76. Policy Control and Charging: The Reality (source OpenCloud) _____________________ 132
Figure 77. APAC Operator Situation (source AppTrigger) __________________________________ 133
Figure 78. Operator Decision Matrix (source AppTrigger) __________________________________ 134
Figure 79. Proposed Solution (source App Trigger) ________________________________________ 134
Figure 80. Total Cost of Ownership Analysis (source AppTrigger) ____________________________ 135
Figure 81. Return on Investment Analysis (source AppTrigger) ______________________________ 135
Figure 82. Transcoder Free Mode ______________________________________________________ 162




                                            8 OF 164
© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                              ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12



                                    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS


    I would like to thank the many people involved in contributing to this report. IMS remains a
sensitive issue for many operators and suppliers, especially given the recent deployment outages
experienced by some operators. I would like to thank in particular Colin Pons who I’ve known for
over a decade for his support and guidance in putting this report together. Colin spent many years at
KPN implementing IMS, and is now with ACME Packet. He has in my opinion the most balanced
view of the strengths and weaknesses of IMS and where it needs to evolve.




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© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                                     ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012



                                                    F O R E WO R D


     This report provides an extensive update to the original IMS Status Report written in 2009, it
compares and contrasts the 2009 and 2012 results to understand how the industry has changed. It
also provides an update on the status of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) based on a market survey
performed from November 2011 to January 2012, and a review of the over-the-top services
impacting operators who are responding with developments such as RCSe/RCS51 (Rich
Communications Suite enhanced) which should not be confused with RCS (Rich Communications
Suite)2. The two have very different user experiences and business purposes, as will be discussed in
this report.

     So where is IMS? Verizon continues its aggressive roll-out, accelerated by its commitment to
LTE (Long Term Evolution) and VoLTE (Voice over LTE). Though as we’ve seen over the past
year it has suffered a significant number of IMS outages. We’ll discuss generically the issues with
IMS that are leading to the problems operators are experiencing in deploying IMS. Many mobile
operators that were circumspect on IMS in the 2009 report have now implemented IMS as part of
their LTE roll-out or RCSe/RCS5 plans, for example Rogers Wireless in Canada. Put simply, they
changed their minds. Advanced voice services are now being launched on IMS, e.g. enterprise
unified communications.

    The business focus of the industry has moved to remaining relevant to customers as the
communication service provider as over the top voice services continue their rise in customers’
awareness. SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) application servers are being purchased to enable a
range of new communication services and capabilities built on IMS, many of those services are being
enabled through APIs (Application Program Interfaces). Third parties and existing partners of the
operator are being brought into the mix to enable innovation and go to market strategies that
operators alone would struggle to achieve.

    No one can argue against the need for IP multimedia session control with dynamic QoS (Quality
of Service), to enable 'reliable as the PSTN' voice communications across any capable network, and
for call features to work transparently across those disparate networks and around the world. Given
the recent transition to all IP in mobile operators over the past year with their investment in LTE,
IMS is moving up the slope of enlightenment.

     The focus has moved on from whether to not to move from an IMS trial to deployment, rather
the focus is now to set out and implement a robust IMS-enabled service roadmap focused on
keeping the operator relevant to customers as their primary communication service provider. As we
will see from the survey and case studies, the implementation of IMS is not set in stone as we adapt
technology defined one decade ago in standards meetings to the market and technology realities of
today.


1   RCSe/RCS5 is being marketed under the Joyn brand, http://joynus.com/.

2 The standards people will take issue with such terminology, as RCSe is a subset of RCS functionality with more
implementation guidelines. While from a customer perspective RCSe is embedded like iMessage in the core
communication experience, rather than a traditional IM (Instant Messag) experience with a list of names and their presence
status. We need more of a focus on what technology means to the customer, than to a standards person.




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© ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
                               ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12


     This document continues to aim at providing a valuable independent status report that can help
all in the industry have a clear view on the current status of IMS, the likely paths operators will take
in the evolution of their networks, and a status report on the impact of over the top voice and the
industry’s competitive and cooperative reaction.




                                              11 OF 164

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IMS Status Report issue 2. Contents and Foreword

  • 1. ALAN QUAYLE BUSINESS AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT I M S ( I P M U LTI M E DIA S U BS Y S TE M ) S TATU S R E PO RT: M OV I N G U P TH E S L O PE O F E N L I GH TE N M E N T AN INDEPENDENT AND QUANTIFIED VIEW OF WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH IMS IN THE TELECOMS INDUSTRY. LTE AND RCSE/RCS5 DRIVE RAPID IMS ADOPTION IN MOBILE, FIXED/CABLE ADOPTION SLOWS. FOCUS CHANGES TO IMPLEMENTATION AND COMMERCIALIZATION BE ST PRACTICES AS SOME IMS DEPLOYMENTS EXPE RIENCE SIGNIFICANT OUTAGES. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT
  • 2. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012 CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 9 FOREWORD 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12 COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 2009 AND 2012 SURVEYS 12 RCS / RCSE CONFUSION 21 OTHER 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS 27 TELECOM REVENUES: INCREASING UNCERTAINTY 27 VOLTE 32 CLOUD AND IMS 34 FINANCIALS 35 IMS SERVICES 37 OTHER TOPICS 37 CASE STUDIES 38 WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2009 40 WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2012 40 RECOMMENDATIONS 41 OPERATOR RECOMMENDATIONS 41 NETWORK EQUIPMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 43 SERVICE LAYER COMPONENT (E.G. SERVICE BROKER) RECOMMENDATION 44 MOBILE HANDSET VENDORS 45 APPLICATION DEVELOPER RECOMMENDATIONS 45 INVESTOR RECOMMENDATIONS 45 A FINAL NOTE 46 INTRODUCTION 47 IMS MARKET SURVEY RESULTS: COMPARING 2009 AND 2012 RESULTS 49 BACKGROUND ON THE RESEARCH 49 OPERATOR INTERVIEWEE ANALYSIS 50 SUPPLIER INTERVIEWEE ANALYSIS 52 IMS ACTIVITY: COMPARING 2009 AND 2012 54 IMS BARRIERS 60 VENDOR PERCEPTION RANKINGS 64 2 OF 164
  • 3. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12 IMS PLANS 66 VOLTE DISCUSSION 69 IMS PRICING 71 RICH COMMUNICATIONS SUITE 72 ALTERNATIVES AND PATHS TO IMS 82 2012 IMS SURVEY ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS 84 STRATEGIC QUESTIONS 84 ARE COMMUNICATION SERVICES TRENDING AWAY FROM THE NETWORK AND INTO THE CLOUD? WILL TRENDS LIKE HUCS (HOSTED UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS SERVICE) LIMIT THE SCOPE OF SERVICES ON IMS (UNTIL IMS RUNS IN THE CLOUD)? WHAT'S YOUR VIEW? 84 IMS IN THE CLOUD, IS THIS VIABLE? THAT IS PUTTING ELEMENTS LIKE THE CSCF, HSS, IMS APP SERVER INTO A VIRTUAL PRIVATE CLOUD. DOES IT MAKE SENSE? 90 DEVICE / APP ECOSYSTEMS AND IMS, WITH IMESSAGE, VIBER, APPLE'S VIRTUAL SIM, ETC. HOW IS IMS BEING POSITIONED TO MAINTAIN OPERATORS' POSITION FOR COMMUNICATION SERVICES? SHOULD REGULATORS ALLOW THE INDUSTRY TO CREATE GLOBAL / REGIONAL / COUNTRY XVNOS TO COMPETE WITH OTT SERVICE PROVIDERS? 91 IS IMS DRIVING TRANSPORT POLICY MANAGEMENT OR IS POLICY INDEPENDENT NOW INDEPENDENT OF IMS? 92 IS VOLTE DRIVING IMS? IS HD VOICE BEING SUPPORTED? HOW ARE THE DEVICE (HD MIC) / CLIENT ISSUES BEING MANAGED? 92 CONSIDERING THE CURRENT IMS DEPLOYMENT COMPARED TO THE ORIGINAL IMS ARCHITECTURE. ARE OPERATORS FINDING OUT THEY BOUGHT IMS COMPONENTS THAT ARE NO LONGER NEEDED OR ARE UNDER-UTILIZED? AS THE NETWORK EVOLVES IS THE DEPLOYMENT ARCHITECTURE EVOLVING? AND IF SO HOW? 92 COMPARING THE CORE LTE CORE NETWORK (EPC, EVOLVED PACKET CORE) (PDN, MME, ETC) FUNCTIONALITY TO THE ORIGINAL IMS ARCHITECTURE. ARE OPERATORS FINDING OUT THEY BOUGHT IMS COMPONENTS (WHEN THE FOCUS WAS FIXED SERVICES) THAT ARE NO LONGER NEEDED OR ARE UNDER-UTILIZED OR NEED TO BE REPLACED AS THEY MOVE TO LTE? FOR EXAMPLE, HOW TO DEAL WITH DIAMETER ROUTING (THE DIAMETER PROTOCOL DOES NOT HAVE ROUTING CAPABILITIES) AND THE MANY DIAMETER INTERFACES. 93 DO WE NEED IMS-LITE? THAT IS A SIMPLIFIED VERSION WITH MULTIPLE ROUTE-MAPS LAID OUT TO EASE MIGRATION, ADOPTION, AND BETTER REFLECT TODAY'S TECHNOLOGIES AND ARCHITECTURES. PLEASE SET OUT WHAT YOU'D LIKE TO SEE. 93 DO WE NEED AN OPEN-SOURCE IMS CLIENT? SO ITS JUST THERE LIKE IPV6. WHAT'S YOUR VIEW ON PLAIN SIP CLIENTS VERSUS IMS CLIENTS? 95 PROJECT QUESTIONS 96 WHAT IS THE IMS PROJECT SIZE. WHAT IS THE SPLIT IN CAPEX / OPEX. 96 WHAT IS MOTIVIATING THE PROJECT SPEND: SERVICE GROWTH, NEW SERVICES, OPEN INNOVATION, SWITCH REPLACEMENT / PLATFORM EOL (END OF LIFE) / CONSOLIDATION, COPYING OTHER OPERATORS AS THEY'RE DOING IT? (IF MULTIPLE SOURCES OF MOTIVATION WHAT IS THE SPLIT, E.G. 50% SWITCH REPLACEMENT, 50% COPYING OTHERS) 97 IF YOU'RE NOT IMPLEMENTING IMS, WHY NOT? 98 WAS THERE A CLEAR ROI FOR THE IMS PROJECT? WHAT WAS THE PAYBACK PERIOD? DID YOU INCLUDE PREVIOUS IMS-RELATED SUNK COSTS? 98 3 OF 164
  • 4. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012 WHAT ARE THE ISSUES / BARRIERS IN GETTING AN IMS PROJECT STARTED? WHAT ARE THE ISSUES IN ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT PARITY FOR LEGACY SERVICES? THE WORD "LEGACY" IS THE CORE SERVICE PROPOSITION AND IS HIGHLY CUSTOMISED TO EACH OPCO, IS THIS REDONE OR DOES THE LEGACY SERVICE CHANGE? 98 ARE THERE SPECIFIC EXAMPLES ON WHERE IMPROVEMENTS ARE NEEDED TO ACCELERATE MIGRATION TO IMS AS RUNNING TWO PLATFORMS IS GENERALLY MORE EXPENSIVE THAN ONE. THE EVOLUTION ROADMAP OT IMS IS BECOMING PROTRACTED BECAUSE OF ISSUES SUCH AS VOLTE COVERAGE AND THE NEED FOR CSFB (CIRCIUT SWITCHED FALL BACK). THIS IMPACTS THE BUSINESS CASE AND ENDS UP ADDING COSTS AND SLOWING THE PROJECT DOWN. 99 WHERE ARE THE IMS PROJECTS: ONE TRACK, STALLED, ACCELERATED? 99 HAVE CHARGING AND MEDIATION SYSTEMS ADAPTED TO SUPPORT IMS? 100 HAS THE PROBLEM OF FEDERATING SUBSCRIBER PROFILE DATA FOR SERVICE ENTITLEMENT BEEN IMS AND OTHER PLATFORMS BEEN SOLVED? 100 SERVICE QUESTIONS 100 IS PTT (PUSH TO TALK) STILL RELEVANT? 100 WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH HD VOICE? 100 WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH VIDEO COMMS IT'S THE CONSUMER BUSINESS BEING CEDED TO OTT? 101 WHAT IS YOUR VIEW ON RCS? 101 HOW ARE YOU PLANNING TO IMPLEMENT RCS-E, WHAT TECHNICAL APPROACHES ARE BEING CONSIDERED? 104 IS IMS THE ONLY APPROACH BEING CONSIDERED, OR ARE THERE REALISTIC ALTERNATIVES THAT CAN ALSO BE USED TO SUPPORT VOLTE EVENTUALLY? 104 WHAT IS THE HANDSET SUPPORT SITUATION WITH RCSE? 104 HAS RCSE EFFECTIVELY REPLACED RCS ON THE OPERATOR ROADMAP? 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING UNIFIED COMMUNICATION ON IMS? HOW IS IT GOING, HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO CLOUD BASED AND OTT SERVICES? 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING VIDEO CONFERENCING ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO CLOUD BASED AND OTT SERVICES? 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING VOICE LOGGING ON IMS? 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING M2M (MACHINE TO MACHINE) ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO SILO'ED APPROACHES (I.E. DEDICATED M2M PLATFORMS). 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING WIFI OFFLOAD ON IMS? 105 ARE YOU IMPLEMENTING IPTV ON IMS? HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO SILO'ED BASED APPROACHES? 105 OTHER QUESTIONS 106 IS DIAMETER ROUTING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR VENDORS OUTSIDE OF THE EXISTING IMS SUPPLIERS? 106 ANOTHER QUESTIONS ISSUES POINTS YOU'D LIKE TO RAISE ON IMS 106 CASE STUDIES 108 VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS CASE STUDY 108 VERIZON BACKGROUND 108 PRINCIPLES BEHIND VERIZON’S IMS DEPLOYMENT 108 BREAKING DOWN THE SILOS 109 SERVICE DELIVERY ECOSYSTEM 110 4 OF 164
  • 5. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12 INTEGRATION EXPERIENCE 111 VERIZON AND VOLTE 113 VERIZON’S VOLTE PLAN 115 VERIZON’S IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES 115 CONCLUSION 116 GENERAL DISCUSSION ON WHAT OPERATORS ARE DISCOVERING IN THE PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION OF IMS 117 THE FUNDAMENTAL ISSUE THE GAP BETWEEN CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF IMS 117 IMPACT OF OVER THE TOP SERVICE TRENDS ON CUSTOMER EXPECTATIONS 117 THE SUBSYSTEM INTEGRATION PROBLEM 118 SUMMING THE CHALLENGES UP 119 CHINA MOBILE CASE STUDY 121 OTE (HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION) CASE STUDY 124 VODAFONE SPAIN SERVICE BROKER 126 EXPLAINING THE SERVICE BROKER 126 VODAFONE SPAIN HOMEZONE SERVICE 127 VODAFONE PORTUGAL 129 GENERIC POLICY CONTROL AND CHARGING CASE STUDY 131 APPTRIGGER (NOW METASWITCH) CASE STUDY OF AN APAC OPERATOR 133 CASE STUDY REVIEW 136 WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2009 138 WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING? IMS PROGNOSIS FROM 2012 138 RECOMMENDATIONS 139 OPERATOR RECOMMENDATIONS 139 NETWORK EQUIPMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 140 SERVICE LAYER COMPONENT (E.G. SERVICE BROKER) RECOMMENDATION 142 MOBILE HANDSET VENDORS 142 APPLICATION DEVELOPER RECOMMENDATIONS 142 INVESTOR RECOMMENDATIONS 143 A FINAL NOTE 143 APPENDIX 1: IMS QUESTIONNAIRE 144 IMS QUESTIONNAIRE 2011/2012 144 STRATEGIC QUESTIONS 144 PROJECT QUESTIONS 144 SERVICE QUESTIONS 145 OTHER QUESTIONS 146 QUESTIONS FROM PREVIOUS SURVEY - PLEASE ANSWER SO WE CAN TRACK MARKET PROGRESS (THESE ARE MUCH SIMPLER AND QUICKER TO COMPLETE THAN THE PREVIOUS QUESTIONS) 146 1) RESPONDENT TYPE: 146 2) IMS STATUS: 146 5 OF 164
  • 6. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012 3) WHEN DO YOU PLAN TO DEPLOY COMMERCIAL SERVICES ON IMS (THAT IS MULTIPLE LIVE COMMERCIAL SERVICES ARE BEING MIGRATED ONTO THE IMS PLATFORM, ITS NOT A SILO IMPLEMENTATION) 147 4) SERVICES DEPLOYED ON IMS: VOICE EMULATION, IP CENTREX / UNIFIED COMMUNICATIONS, SIP TRUNKING, PUSH TO TALK, ETC. 147 5) VENDOR RANKINGS (SCORE BETWEEN 1-5, 1-VERY POOR, 2-POOR, 3-AVERAGE, 4-GOOD, 5- VERY GOOD) 147 6) BARRIERS TO STARTING THE IMS PROJECT. JUST MARK WITH AN X TO INDICATE MAIN ONES, ADD MORE XS RELATIVE TO ITS IMPORTANCE. 147 7) IMS LAUNCH SERVICES. JUST MARK WITH AN X TO INDICATE MAIN ONES, ADD MORE XS IF IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT. 148 8) SERVICE DRIVERS FOR IMS 149 9) IMS PRICING 149 10) BARRIERS TO IMS PROJECT EXPANSION (OPERATORS / SUPPLIERS) 149 11) RCS AWARENESS, VIEWS, PLANS, INITIAL MARKET REACTION 149 12) ALTERNATIVES TO IMS AND IMS MIGRATION PLANS 150 13) ALTERNATIVES TO IMS AND IMS MIGRATION PLANS 150 14) ANYOTHER QUESTIONS ISSUES POINTS YOU'D LIKE TO RAISE ON IMS 150 APPENDIX 2 – ACRONYMS 151 APPENDIX 3 – COMPANIES INTERVIEW 157 OPERATORS 157 SUPPLIERS 159 APPENDIX 4: GSM WIDEBAND VOICE ISSUES 161 PROS / DRIVERS: 161 CONS STOPPING OPERATORS: 161 NETWORK ISSUES 161 GERAN 163 UTRAN 163 CAPACITY 163 HANDSET ISSUES 164 VOIP AND IMS ISSUES 164 MARKETING AND BUSINESS CASE ISSUES 164 6 OF 164
  • 7. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12 TA BLE O F FI GU RE S Figure 1. Operator IMS activity, and Distribution by Operator Type 2009 Survey _________________ 15 Figure 2. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type, 2012 Survey _________________ 16 Figure 3. Live IMS Services, 2009 Survey _________________________________________________ 17 Figure 4. Live IMS Services, 2012 Survey _________________________________________________ 18 Figure 5. Cumulative Percentage of Operators by year they anticipate starting IMS Deployment, 2009 and 2012 Surveys ____________________________________________________________________ 19 Figure 6. IMS Barrier and Frequency of Occurrence from Operators for 2009 and 2012 (Order by 2009 prioritization) _______________________________________________________________________ 21 Figure 7. RCS and RCSe Relationship ___________________________________________________ 24 Figure 8. Core Concept of RCSe: Extending the Communications Stack into the IP World _________ 24 Figure 9. iMessage Proposition: Free SMS _______________________________________________ 25 Figure 10. Example of iMessage’s Ability to Substitute SMS Revenue __________________________ 25 Figure 11. WhatsApp Experience: Over The Top Messaging _________________________________ 26 Figure 12. Viber Application: Over The Top Voice _________________________________________ 26 Figure 13. Estimates of Compound Annual Growth Rates for 2013 are Becoming Increasingly Uncertain __________________________________________________________________________ 28 Figure 14. Time Frame for when Voice Will Become ‘Just an App’ on the Network _______________ 29 Figure 15. Time Frame for when SMS will become ‘just an app’ on the Network _________________ 30 Figure 16. Optimistic View of Total Telecom Revenue _______________________________________ 31 Figure 17. Pessimistic View of the Total Telecom Revenues (ignore VAS) _______________________ 32 Figure 18. Consensus Estimates on VoLTE and RCS / RCSe Launches _________________________ 33 Figure 19. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 35 Figure 20. Split between Operator and Supplier Interviews 2009 and 2012 ______________________ 50 Figure 21. Geographical Distribution of Operators Interviewed 2009 and 2012 ___________________ 50 Figure 22. Operator Types Interviewed 2009 and 2012 ______________________________________ 51 Figure 23. Distribution of Operator Interviews by Role 2009 and 2012 _________________________ 52 Figure 24. Geographical Distribution of Suppliers Interviewed ________________________________ 52 Figure 25. Distribution of Supplier Interviews by Role ______________________________________ 53 Figure 26. Distribution of Supplier Interviews by Type of Supplier _____________________________ 53 Figure 27. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type 2009 ______________________ 56 Figure 28. Operator IMS Activity and Distribution by Operator Type 2012 ______________________ 57 Figure 29. Live IMS Services, 2009 _____________________________________________________ 59 Figure 30. Live IMS Services, 2012 ______________________________________________________ 59 Figure 31. IMS Barrier and Frequency of Occurrence from Operators for 2009 and 2012 (Order by 2009 prioritization) ___________________________________________________________________ 63 Figure 32. Supplier Ranking of Barriers __________________________________________________ 64 Figure 33. IMS Vendor Ranking (Perception based) 2009 Results _____________________________ 65 Figure 34. IMS Vendor Ranking Regional Variation, 2009 __________________________________ 65 Figure 35. IMS Vendor Ranking Regional Variation, 2012 ___________________________________ 66 Figure 36. Cumulative Percentage of Operators by year they anticipate starting IMS Deployment, 2009 ___________________________________________________________________________________ 67 Figure 37. Estimate of the Initial Application of IMS _______________________________________ 68 Figure 38. Potential Service Drivers _____________________________________________________ 69 Figure 39. Consensus View on VoLTE and RCS / RCSe Launches ____________________________ 70 Figure 40. IMS Price Range per Region (Cost per Subscriber in US Dollars), 2009 _______________ 71 Figure 41. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 72 Figure 42. Rich Communication Suite Results, 2009 ________________________________________ 74 Figure 43. View on RCS / RCSe in 2012 Survey ____________________________________________ 75 Figure 44. RCS, VoLTE and MMTel Serivces (source Dan Warren GSMA) _____________________ 76 Figure 45. RCS and RCSe Relationship __________________________________________________ 78 7 OF 164
  • 8. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012 Figure 46. Core Concept of RCSe: Extending the Communications Stack into the IP World ________ 79 Figure 47. iMessage Proposition: Free SMS_______________________________________________ 80 Figure 48. Example of iMessage’s Ability to Substitute SMS Revenue _________________________ 80 Figure 49. WhatsApp Experience: Over The Top Messaging _________________________________ 81 Figure 50. Viber Application: Over The Top Voice _________________________________________ 81 Figure 51. Alternatives and Paths to IMS, 2009 ____________________________________________ 83 Figure 52. Time Frame for when Voice will become ‘just an app’ on the Network ________________ 85 Figure 53. Time Frame for when SMS will become ‘just an app’ on the Network_________________ 87 Figure 54. Skype’s Domination of International Call Traffic _________________________________ 88 Figure 55. Estimates of Compound Annual Growth Rates for 2013 are Becoming Increasingly Uncertain __________________________________________________________________________ 88 Figure 56. Optimistic View of Total Telecom Revenue _______________________________________ 89 Figure 57. Pessimistic View of the Total Telecom Revenues (ignore VAS) _______________________ 90 Figure 58. Simplified IMS Architecture Options (source Pieter Veenstra, KPN) __________________ 95 Figure 59. IMS Project Size over 3 years _________________________________________________ 97 Figure 60. RCS, VoLTE and MMTel Serivces (source Dan Warren GSMA) ____________________ 102 Figure 61. Diameter Signaling Router Architecture (source Tekelec) __________________________ 106 Figure 62. Verizon’s IMS and SDE Vision (source Verizon) _________________________________ 109 Figure 63. Shared Infrastructure Vision (source Verizon) __________________________________ 112 Figure 64. Legacy Integration (source Verizon) ___________________________________________ 112 Figure 65. Verizon’s Contiguous 4G Spectrum ___________________________________________ 114 Figure 66. Verizon’s VoLTE Roadmap __________________________________________________ 114 Figure 67. China Mobile Network Architecture (source Huawei) _____________________________ 122 Figure 68. China Mobile Target Architecture (source Huawei)_______________________________ 122 Figure 69. CMCC Service Roadmap (source Huawei) ______________________________________ 123 Figure 70. OTE IMS Service Roadmap (source Huawei) ____________________________________ 125 Figure 71. Typical Prior Situation (source OpenCloud) _____________________________________ 126 Figure 72. Service Broker Extending Pre-pay Applications (source OpenCloud) _________________ 127 Figure 73. Vodafone Spain Service Broker Scenario (source OpenCloud) ______________________ 128 Figure 74. Service Broker / Service Capability Interaction Manager Function __________________ 129 Figure 75. Policy Control and Charging: The Plan (source OpenCloud) _______________________ 131 Figure 76. Policy Control and Charging: The Reality (source OpenCloud) _____________________ 132 Figure 77. APAC Operator Situation (source AppTrigger) __________________________________ 133 Figure 78. Operator Decision Matrix (source AppTrigger) __________________________________ 134 Figure 79. Proposed Solution (source App Trigger) ________________________________________ 134 Figure 80. Total Cost of Ownership Analysis (source AppTrigger) ____________________________ 135 Figure 81. Return on Investment Analysis (source AppTrigger) ______________________________ 135 Figure 82. Transcoder Free Mode ______________________________________________________ 162 8 OF 164
  • 9. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the many people involved in contributing to this report. IMS remains a sensitive issue for many operators and suppliers, especially given the recent deployment outages experienced by some operators. I would like to thank in particular Colin Pons who I’ve known for over a decade for his support and guidance in putting this report together. Colin spent many years at KPN implementing IMS, and is now with ACME Packet. He has in my opinion the most balanced view of the strengths and weaknesses of IMS and where it needs to evolve. 9 OF 164
  • 10. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. MARCH 2012 F O R E WO R D This report provides an extensive update to the original IMS Status Report written in 2009, it compares and contrasts the 2009 and 2012 results to understand how the industry has changed. It also provides an update on the status of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) based on a market survey performed from November 2011 to January 2012, and a review of the over-the-top services impacting operators who are responding with developments such as RCSe/RCS51 (Rich Communications Suite enhanced) which should not be confused with RCS (Rich Communications Suite)2. The two have very different user experiences and business purposes, as will be discussed in this report. So where is IMS? Verizon continues its aggressive roll-out, accelerated by its commitment to LTE (Long Term Evolution) and VoLTE (Voice over LTE). Though as we’ve seen over the past year it has suffered a significant number of IMS outages. We’ll discuss generically the issues with IMS that are leading to the problems operators are experiencing in deploying IMS. Many mobile operators that were circumspect on IMS in the 2009 report have now implemented IMS as part of their LTE roll-out or RCSe/RCS5 plans, for example Rogers Wireless in Canada. Put simply, they changed their minds. Advanced voice services are now being launched on IMS, e.g. enterprise unified communications. The business focus of the industry has moved to remaining relevant to customers as the communication service provider as over the top voice services continue their rise in customers’ awareness. SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) application servers are being purchased to enable a range of new communication services and capabilities built on IMS, many of those services are being enabled through APIs (Application Program Interfaces). Third parties and existing partners of the operator are being brought into the mix to enable innovation and go to market strategies that operators alone would struggle to achieve. No one can argue against the need for IP multimedia session control with dynamic QoS (Quality of Service), to enable 'reliable as the PSTN' voice communications across any capable network, and for call features to work transparently across those disparate networks and around the world. Given the recent transition to all IP in mobile operators over the past year with their investment in LTE, IMS is moving up the slope of enlightenment. The focus has moved on from whether to not to move from an IMS trial to deployment, rather the focus is now to set out and implement a robust IMS-enabled service roadmap focused on keeping the operator relevant to customers as their primary communication service provider. As we will see from the survey and case studies, the implementation of IMS is not set in stone as we adapt technology defined one decade ago in standards meetings to the market and technology realities of today. 1 RCSe/RCS5 is being marketed under the Joyn brand, http://joynus.com/. 2 The standards people will take issue with such terminology, as RCSe is a subset of RCS functionality with more implementation guidelines. While from a customer perspective RCSe is embedded like iMessage in the core communication experience, rather than a traditional IM (Instant Messag) experience with a list of names and their presence status. We need more of a focus on what technology means to the customer, than to a standards person. 10 OF 164
  • 11. © ALAN QUAYLE BUSINE SS AND SERVICE DEVEL OPMENT ISSUE 2. FEBRUARY 20 12 This document continues to aim at providing a valuable independent status report that can help all in the industry have a clear view on the current status of IMS, the likely paths operators will take in the evolution of their networks, and a status report on the impact of over the top voice and the industry’s competitive and cooperative reaction. 11 OF 164