- The document predicts that violence following the 2010-2011 Ivorian post-election crisis will be extreme, with thousands dead in Abidjan from militias competing for control of neighborhoods. It warns that ethnic groups may take up arms to defend themselves, threatening long-term state failure.
- It argues that Laurent Gbagbo's fate, like others who lose power violently, will be dire imprisonment or death, not safety under UN protection. It predicts Gbagbo and his wife will be interrogated and their political party dismantled, with leaders imprisoned or killed.
- It claims the violence aims to compel submission to the new coalition led by Alassane Ouattara and eliminate opposition, threatening revenge