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Maple Growth Partners
Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Activity in South East Asia Measured Using
Pollution Index as a Proxy
Analysis of Major Cities in China, South Korea, and Singapore
31 March 2020
Amidst the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic, we were looking for an effective barometer to evaluate economic
activity in the countries that have already implemented restrictive measures to “flatten the curve”. Traditional indicators
proved insufficient as the absence of daily-reporting restricted real-time analysis of economic activity. We settled on
using city/region-wise pollution index as a proxy for economic activity since it is a function of overall movement/
commercial activity and is also reported on a daily basis.
Phase 1: This is just a preliminary attempt to understand the impact/recovery trend in the major cities of these
countries since the virus outbreak reached critical levels here in early February 2020. We intend to undertake a similar
exercise of European and North American countries in the weeks to come.
It is still early days as economies the world over brace themselves to combat the pandemic but we believe continued
analysis could provide useful insights into the extent of economic impact and eventual recovery in the future.
1
1. China
2
• 2020 pollution index levels had largely surpassed or were similar to the previous years data in the first week of
February
• With the outbreak of coronavirus in China in February 2020, Chinese government imposed lockdowns and/or
travel restrictions across various cities to mitigate the risk of local transmission – in line with this, economic
activity reduced considerably and the pollution index declined by ~30-50% by mid February
• Since the beginning of March, there was some evidence in terms of partial economic recovery with an upward
trend in pollution index across most cities
• However, this uptick was largely offset by a steep decline in pollution index in the last week of March
indicating subdued economic activity as of now
• We covered the capital cities of the provinces in China with most confirmed cases. Wuhan (Hubei – account
for ~81% share of total confirmed cases in China); Guangzhou (Guangdon – 1.7% share); Luoyang (Henan –
1.6% share); Hangzhou (Zhejiang – 1.5% share); Changsha (Hunan – 1.3% share)
China: Current Scenario Summary
3
Wuhan: Current Pollution Level has been Largely Below the Previous Years Data,
Although There was a Recovery in Mid-March but it Declined in the Last Week
Wuhan Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Wuhan – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
60
120
180
240
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
50
100
150
200
250
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Wuhan - one of China's largest industrial
and auto hubs
Drastic fall in
the pollution
levels in 1
week
While pollution levels were similar to the previous year in the first week of February, it declined thereafter and
then recovered in mid-march and eventually declined considerably in the last few days of March
Most impacted period
Source: Aqicn.org; MGP Analysis
4
Guangzhou: Pollution Index has Largely Been Volatile for this City
Guangzhou Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Guangzhou – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
50
100
150
200
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Guangzhou’s major industries - auto,
electronics, and petrochemicals
Steep decline
since 10 days
Barring one instance, current levels reported lower numbers compared
to the corresponding previous years data between 26 Feb and 30 Mar
Source: Aqicn.org; MGP Analysis
5
Luoyang: Current Pollution Data has been Largely Lower Than the
Corresponding Period in the Previous Years
Luoyang Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Luoyang – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
80
160
240
320
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
Transport hub and a production base for
advanced manufacturing and petrochem
Most impacted period
Similar trend of
a steep decline
since 10 days
Except 26-30 Mar period, current levels reported lower numbers compared to the
corresponding previous years data between 06 Feb and 30 Mar
6
Hangzhou: In February and March, 2020 Pollution Data has been Continuously
Lower Compared to the Previous Years Data
Hangzhou Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Hangzhou – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
60
120
180
240
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
50
100
150
200
250
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Major Industries: Machinery / electronics,
pharma, high-tech textile and chemical fiber
Subdued activity
Most impacted period with ~50%
reduction in pollution levels
7
Changsha: 2020 Levels have Been Largely Similar to the Previous Years, Except
the Last Week of March That Showed a Steep Decline
Changsha Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Changsha – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
60
120
180
240
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Intelligent manufacturing - Internet of
Things, 3D printing, and robotics
Possible strong economic
recovery
Similar to the previous years’ levels, followed by a
marginal uptick and then a steep decline
8
2. South Korea
9
• 2020 pollution index was high at the start of February as compared to the corresponding period of previous
years
• However, with the outbreak of Covid-19 in mid February in South Korea, pollution index started declining
drastically. By the end of February, pollution index decreased by ~50-60%
• Since the beginning of March, when situation was largely getting in control, pollution index started to show an
ascending trend and largely returned back to the previous years’ levels in the mid week of March, with a delta
of ~10-20%
• However, this uptick in mid March wasn’t sustainable and these cities witnessed a steep decline of ~15%-25%
in pollution index in the last week of March across South Korea
• We covered Daegu, Busan, and Seoul primarily because these are the top three cities in South Korea with
highest population and most likely with high number of cases since the country is quite small and local
transmission can be high in densely populated cities
South Korea: Current Scenario Summary
10
Daegu: Daegu was Severely Impacted Between 25 Feb – 10 Mar, Later Recovering
in Mid-March and Now Have Gradually Declined in the Last Leg of March
Daegu Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Daegu – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
40
80
120
160
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Daegu major industries: high tech fashion &
textile industries and auto hub
Before the impact of the virus, 2020 pollution was quite high comparatively, later declining to its lowest in the
last week of Feb and then bouncing back by mid-march to now showing a gradual decline
Subdued activity
11
Busan: Similar Trend Here Showing a Steep Decline and Then a Partial Recovery
Followed by a Gradual Decline in the Last 10 days of March
Busan Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Busan – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
40
80
120
160
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Logistics and economic hub of the
southeast region in Korea
Subdued activity
2020 pollution data was similar to the previous years right before the virus impacted the economic functioning. Post then,
pollution levels declined more than 50% and by mid-March it did recover to eventually fall back in the last 10 days of March
12
Seoul: South Korea has Largely Shown a Similar Trend Across the Whole
Country of a Major Dip in End February With a Partial Recovery in March 2020
Seoul Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Seoul – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
50
100
150
200
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Major Industries: Electronics, auto, telecom,
shipbuilding, chemicals and steel
Seoul’s 2020 pollution level was down by less than 40% when most impacted in the last week of February. It was
then followed by a recovery in mid March to eventually declining a bit in the last week of March
Subdued activity
13
3. Singapore
Singapore is a small country and we have
covered all the regions here. So no need to talk
about the respective major industries
14
• 2020 pollution index levels were largely high in the first week of February comparatively
• Through the end of February, pollution index was marginally impacted (10%-20% range) primarily due to the
outbreak of virus in mid February and reduced travel and tourism activity
• Index was recovered marginally in the first two weeks of March and situation seemed to have largely been in
control
• However, the virus impact in Singapore was primarily felt in the second half of March with the pollution index
going down by ~25-40% through the end of March, indicating a possible subdued economic activity
• We covered the whole of Singapore here, diving the country in five regions – north, south, east, west, central.
Singapore: Current Scenario Summary
15
North Singapore: Volatility in Current Pollution Index With a Marginal Uptick in
the End of March
N Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of North Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
20
40
60
80
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Between 16 and 25 March, the impact of the virus was more visible,
however, this was followed by a partial recovery in the last week of March
16
South Singapore: This Region has Felt the Impact of the Virus the Most Since Mid
March
S Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of South Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
20
40
60
80
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Subdued activity
While the effects of the virus can be seen post the first week of February probably due to reduced tourism and other
economic activities, the impact of the virus has been quite high since mid-March
17
East Singapore: Similar Trend Can be Seen here With the Last Leg of March
Seem to be the Most Vulnerable in Terms of Virus Impact
E Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of East Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
20
40
60
80
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Subdued activity
Since 16 March, 2020 pollution levels have been reduced by ~35-40%
compared to the corresponding period of previous years
18
West Singapore: Again, Similar Story Here of Gradual Decline in Pollution Levels
Since the Peak in the First Week of Feb Through the End of March
W Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of West Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
25
50
75
100
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Subdued activity
19
Central Singapore: In the 1st Week of Feb, 2020 Saw a ~30% Increase in Pollutions
Levels, However, Post That it has Comparatively Declined by 20-25%
C Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019
Pollution Index Trend of Central Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
20
40
60
80
01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
01-Jan
03-Jan
05-Jan
07-Jan
09-Jan
11-Jan
13-Jan
15-Jan
17-Jan
19-Jan
21-Jan
23-Jan
25-Jan
27-Jan
29-Jan
31-Jan
02-Feb
04-Feb
06-Feb
08-Feb
10-Feb
12-Feb
14-Feb
16-Feb
18-Feb
20-Feb
22-Feb
24-Feb
26-Feb
28-Feb
01-Mar
03-Mar
05-Mar
07-Mar
09-Mar
11-Mar
13-Mar
15-Mar
17-Mar
19-Mar
21-Mar
23-Mar
25-Mar
27-Mar
29-Mar
Subdued activity
2020 pollution level have reduced since the first week of February, later showing a marginal
uptick in mid-March and then gradually declining in the end of March
20
• This document has been compiled by Maple Growth Partners (MGP) from sources believed to be reliable, but
no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by MGP, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. Such information may be incomplete or condensed and/or may not
have been independently validated by MGP. MGP expressly disclaims liability for any direct or consequential
loss arising from any use or reliance upon this material or the information contained herein.
• Certain of the information contained herein represents or is based upon forward-looking statements or
information, which may include descriptions of anticipated market conditions and changes, and expectations
of future industry activity. Maple Growth Partners believes that such statements and information are based
upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements and information are
inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ from those projected. Therefore, undue reliance
should not be placed on such forward-looking statements and information.
MAPLE GROWTH PARTNERS
NIRAJ SINGHVI
Founder and CEO
+91 9930-206-207
niraj.singhvi@maplegrowthpartners.com
Disclaimer

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Impact of Covid 19 on Economic Activity in South East Asia

  • 1. 0 Maple Growth Partners Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Activity in South East Asia Measured Using Pollution Index as a Proxy Analysis of Major Cities in China, South Korea, and Singapore 31 March 2020 Amidst the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic, we were looking for an effective barometer to evaluate economic activity in the countries that have already implemented restrictive measures to “flatten the curve”. Traditional indicators proved insufficient as the absence of daily-reporting restricted real-time analysis of economic activity. We settled on using city/region-wise pollution index as a proxy for economic activity since it is a function of overall movement/ commercial activity and is also reported on a daily basis. Phase 1: This is just a preliminary attempt to understand the impact/recovery trend in the major cities of these countries since the virus outbreak reached critical levels here in early February 2020. We intend to undertake a similar exercise of European and North American countries in the weeks to come. It is still early days as economies the world over brace themselves to combat the pandemic but we believe continued analysis could provide useful insights into the extent of economic impact and eventual recovery in the future.
  • 3. 2 • 2020 pollution index levels had largely surpassed or were similar to the previous years data in the first week of February • With the outbreak of coronavirus in China in February 2020, Chinese government imposed lockdowns and/or travel restrictions across various cities to mitigate the risk of local transmission – in line with this, economic activity reduced considerably and the pollution index declined by ~30-50% by mid February • Since the beginning of March, there was some evidence in terms of partial economic recovery with an upward trend in pollution index across most cities • However, this uptick was largely offset by a steep decline in pollution index in the last week of March indicating subdued economic activity as of now • We covered the capital cities of the provinces in China with most confirmed cases. Wuhan (Hubei – account for ~81% share of total confirmed cases in China); Guangzhou (Guangdon – 1.7% share); Luoyang (Henan – 1.6% share); Hangzhou (Zhejiang – 1.5% share); Changsha (Hunan – 1.3% share) China: Current Scenario Summary
  • 4. 3 Wuhan: Current Pollution Level has been Largely Below the Previous Years Data, Although There was a Recovery in Mid-March but it Declined in the Last Week Wuhan Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Wuhan – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 60 120 180 240 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 50 100 150 200 250 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Wuhan - one of China's largest industrial and auto hubs Drastic fall in the pollution levels in 1 week While pollution levels were similar to the previous year in the first week of February, it declined thereafter and then recovered in mid-march and eventually declined considerably in the last few days of March Most impacted period Source: Aqicn.org; MGP Analysis
  • 5. 4 Guangzhou: Pollution Index has Largely Been Volatile for this City Guangzhou Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Guangzhou – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 50 100 150 200 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Guangzhou’s major industries - auto, electronics, and petrochemicals Steep decline since 10 days Barring one instance, current levels reported lower numbers compared to the corresponding previous years data between 26 Feb and 30 Mar Source: Aqicn.org; MGP Analysis
  • 6. 5 Luoyang: Current Pollution Data has been Largely Lower Than the Corresponding Period in the Previous Years Luoyang Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Luoyang – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 80 160 240 320 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels Transport hub and a production base for advanced manufacturing and petrochem Most impacted period Similar trend of a steep decline since 10 days Except 26-30 Mar period, current levels reported lower numbers compared to the corresponding previous years data between 06 Feb and 30 Mar
  • 7. 6 Hangzhou: In February and March, 2020 Pollution Data has been Continuously Lower Compared to the Previous Years Data Hangzhou Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Hangzhou – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 60 120 180 240 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 50 100 150 200 250 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Major Industries: Machinery / electronics, pharma, high-tech textile and chemical fiber Subdued activity Most impacted period with ~50% reduction in pollution levels
  • 8. 7 Changsha: 2020 Levels have Been Largely Similar to the Previous Years, Except the Last Week of March That Showed a Steep Decline Changsha Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Changsha – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 60 120 180 240 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Intelligent manufacturing - Internet of Things, 3D printing, and robotics Possible strong economic recovery Similar to the previous years’ levels, followed by a marginal uptick and then a steep decline
  • 10. 9 • 2020 pollution index was high at the start of February as compared to the corresponding period of previous years • However, with the outbreak of Covid-19 in mid February in South Korea, pollution index started declining drastically. By the end of February, pollution index decreased by ~50-60% • Since the beginning of March, when situation was largely getting in control, pollution index started to show an ascending trend and largely returned back to the previous years’ levels in the mid week of March, with a delta of ~10-20% • However, this uptick in mid March wasn’t sustainable and these cities witnessed a steep decline of ~15%-25% in pollution index in the last week of March across South Korea • We covered Daegu, Busan, and Seoul primarily because these are the top three cities in South Korea with highest population and most likely with high number of cases since the country is quite small and local transmission can be high in densely populated cities South Korea: Current Scenario Summary
  • 11. 10 Daegu: Daegu was Severely Impacted Between 25 Feb – 10 Mar, Later Recovering in Mid-March and Now Have Gradually Declined in the Last Leg of March Daegu Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Daegu – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 40 80 120 160 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Daegu major industries: high tech fashion & textile industries and auto hub Before the impact of the virus, 2020 pollution was quite high comparatively, later declining to its lowest in the last week of Feb and then bouncing back by mid-march to now showing a gradual decline Subdued activity
  • 12. 11 Busan: Similar Trend Here Showing a Steep Decline and Then a Partial Recovery Followed by a Gradual Decline in the Last 10 days of March Busan Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Busan – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 40 80 120 160 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Logistics and economic hub of the southeast region in Korea Subdued activity 2020 pollution data was similar to the previous years right before the virus impacted the economic functioning. Post then, pollution levels declined more than 50% and by mid-March it did recover to eventually fall back in the last 10 days of March
  • 13. 12 Seoul: South Korea has Largely Shown a Similar Trend Across the Whole Country of a Major Dip in End February With a Partial Recovery in March 2020 Seoul Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Seoul – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 50 100 150 200 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Major Industries: Electronics, auto, telecom, shipbuilding, chemicals and steel Seoul’s 2020 pollution level was down by less than 40% when most impacted in the last week of February. It was then followed by a recovery in mid March to eventually declining a bit in the last week of March Subdued activity
  • 14. 13 3. Singapore Singapore is a small country and we have covered all the regions here. So no need to talk about the respective major industries
  • 15. 14 • 2020 pollution index levels were largely high in the first week of February comparatively • Through the end of February, pollution index was marginally impacted (10%-20% range) primarily due to the outbreak of virus in mid February and reduced travel and tourism activity • Index was recovered marginally in the first two weeks of March and situation seemed to have largely been in control • However, the virus impact in Singapore was primarily felt in the second half of March with the pollution index going down by ~25-40% through the end of March, indicating a possible subdued economic activity • We covered the whole of Singapore here, diving the country in five regions – north, south, east, west, central. Singapore: Current Scenario Summary
  • 16. 15 North Singapore: Volatility in Current Pollution Index With a Marginal Uptick in the End of March N Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of North Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Between 16 and 25 March, the impact of the virus was more visible, however, this was followed by a partial recovery in the last week of March
  • 17. 16 South Singapore: This Region has Felt the Impact of the Virus the Most Since Mid March S Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of South Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Subdued activity While the effects of the virus can be seen post the first week of February probably due to reduced tourism and other economic activities, the impact of the virus has been quite high since mid-March
  • 18. 17 East Singapore: Similar Trend Can be Seen here With the Last Leg of March Seem to be the Most Vulnerable in Terms of Virus Impact E Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of East Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Subdued activity Since 16 March, 2020 pollution levels have been reduced by ~35-40% compared to the corresponding period of previous years
  • 19. 18 West Singapore: Again, Similar Story Here of Gradual Decline in Pollution Levels Since the Peak in the First Week of Feb Through the End of March W Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of West Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 25 50 75 100 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Subdued activity
  • 20. 19 Central Singapore: In the 1st Week of Feb, 2020 Saw a ~30% Increase in Pollutions Levels, However, Post That it has Comparatively Declined by 20-25% C Singapore Pollution Index – Comparing 5 Days Data of Each Year Between 01 Feb - 30 Mar and Change in 2020 vs 2019 Pollution Index Trend of Central Singapore – 01 Jan 2020 to 30 Mar 2020 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 01-05Feb 06-10Feb 11-15Feb 15-20Feb 21-25Feb 26-29Feb 01-05Mar 06-10Mar 11-15Mar 16-20Mar 21-25Mar 26-30Mar 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 / 2019 Levels 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01-Jan 03-Jan 05-Jan 07-Jan 09-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 02-Feb 04-Feb 06-Feb 08-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 01-Mar 03-Mar 05-Mar 07-Mar 09-Mar 11-Mar 13-Mar 15-Mar 17-Mar 19-Mar 21-Mar 23-Mar 25-Mar 27-Mar 29-Mar Subdued activity 2020 pollution level have reduced since the first week of February, later showing a marginal uptick in mid-March and then gradually declining in the end of March
  • 21. 20 • This document has been compiled by Maple Growth Partners (MGP) from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by MGP, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Such information may be incomplete or condensed and/or may not have been independently validated by MGP. MGP expressly disclaims liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use or reliance upon this material or the information contained herein. • Certain of the information contained herein represents or is based upon forward-looking statements or information, which may include descriptions of anticipated market conditions and changes, and expectations of future industry activity. Maple Growth Partners believes that such statements and information are based upon reasonable estimates and assumptions. However, forward-looking statements and information are inherently uncertain and actual events or results may differ from those projected. Therefore, undue reliance should not be placed on such forward-looking statements and information. MAPLE GROWTH PARTNERS NIRAJ SINGHVI Founder and CEO +91 9930-206-207 niraj.singhvi@maplegrowthpartners.com Disclaimer