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SRI KRISHNA COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY
SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
21PNE008 – International Finance
Saravanan R
Assistant Professor
Unit 1
Introduction
Topics Covered
1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction
1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics
1.3 Foreign Exchange Market
1.4 Market Participants
1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates
1.6 Factors determining Foreign Exchange Rates
1.7 International Monetary System-Gold Standard-The Bretton woods system.
1.8 Glossary
1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/yajyzbhk
History
Barter System-
6000 B.C
Prehistoric currency
involving easily
traded goods like
animal skins, salt
and weapons
developed over the
centuries
770 B.C., the
Chinese used
miniature replicas
of the same tools
cast in bronze
600 B.C. Lydia's King Alyattes
minted the first official currency
and it was stamped with pictures
that acted as denominations.
Civilization, Need and
Wants laid a road map
for Trade / International
Trade
Globalization is
not a
phenomena
The Colonial
Expansion led the
way for
International
Trade
In 1870’s the
Industrial Revolution
paved the way for
establishing Global
Market
Second World war
and the Great
Depression in 1930’s
created crises in the
Global Economy
Thus the need for
regularization
aroused which led to
the creation of GATT
and IBRD
History (…Continued)
Trade and its type – Goods/Services transferred with Monetary value
Local Trade -
Trade inside
the state
National Trade -
Trade between
states
International Trade -
Trade between
Countries
International Financial Management
International
Trade
International
Business
International
Finance
Finance
Decisions
International Financial Management – What?
IFM may be defined as
the management of the
whole gamut of finance
operations relating to
international activities of
business organization
Management of financial
resources in the context
of international economic
activities is referred to as
IFM
International Financial Environment in
India - Timeline
Pre
Colonial
Q1 Q Q3 Q4
Manufacturing
Hub
01
Colonial
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Raw Material
Export
02
Post
Independence
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Deficit Balance of
Trade and
Payments for 40
Years
03
Post 1991 -
1992
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
LPG
05
Forex Reserves - $5.8
billion as of March
1991
Why India went for LPG?
Foreign exchange reserves
were almost Nil during
1990-1991.
Foreign reserves are a
base for a country to print
its currency
India forced itself to join the
forum of world trade to
counter the imbalance in
foreign reserves.
As a result India went for LPG
in 1991-92 under the Congress
Government led by Late Prime
Minister Narashima Rao and
then Finance Minister
Dr Manmohan Singh.
International Financial – Openness
Trade to GDP
Ratio = (Import +
Export) / GDP
As per 2021 data
released by WTO,
the Trade to GDP
Ratio of India is
43.68% and
stands below in
the table
compared to other
countries
In India post
1991 –
Openness was
15% to
liberalization i.e
Trade to GDP
Ratio was 15%
Trade to GDP Ratio – Ranking- Top 5 and Bottom 5
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.
GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true
Top 5
Country Most
Recent
Year
Most
Recent
Value
Hong Kong 2021 403
Luxembourg 2021 389
Singapore 2021 338
San Marino 2021 305
Malta 2021 283
Bottom 5
Country Most
Recent
Year
Most
Recent
Value
Afghanistan 2021 25
Ethiopia 2021 24
United States 2021 23
Cuba 2021 16
Sudan 2021 4
Trade to GDP Ratio – World – Source:
World Bank Data
Trade to GDP Ratio – India – Source:
World Bank Data
•
International Financial Management –
Why?
Money and Risk travel
parallelly
Money flow inward
and outward
simultaneously
Decision in terms of
Finance and business
has to be taken at
every incidence
Movement of Money is
complex
How to reduce risk?
How to maximize
profit?
How to maximize
wealth?
1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction
•Identify the goods (sector wise) that are exported from
India and Imported to India in large quantity for the past
three years.
•Analyse the impact of Foreign Trade in India’s Economy-
sector wise
•Do you think Liberalization has given a boost to India’s
Trade?-substantiate with data
1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/y8plhkv6
• Foreign Exchange means Foreign Currency held by the host
country
• FX is used to make payments at the time of international trade.
• FX acts as a base for our country to print Indian Rupees.
Foreign Exchange–Basics (FX)
Foreign Exchange Reserves of India
Source:https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/WSSViewDetail.aspx?TYPE=Section&PARAM1=2
Foreign Exchange–Basics (FX)
Item
As on Sep, 2022
₹ Cr. US$ Mn.
1 2
1 Total Reserves 4351017 545652
1.1 Foreign Currency Assets 3866549 484901
1.2 Gold 304491 38186
1.3 SDRs 141030 17686
1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics
• From Newspaper articles take snapshots of data of
news articles in terms of Forex and make a
presentation on it and upload in google classroom.
• Using Tableau, represent the Forex reserves that Post
Independence, Post LPG, Post 2008, Post GST.
1.3 Foreign Exchange Market
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/ybrcdmfs
https://tinyurl.com/y8xnjylo
Foreign Exchange Market
Foreign Exchange Market
The FX market is a
market in which
foreign exchange
transactions take
place.
A FX market refers to
buying foreign currencies
with domestic currencies
and selling foreign
currencies for domestic
currencies.
"A Foreign Exchange Market
comprises of all those
institutions and individuals
who buy and sell foreign
exchange which may be
defined as foreign money or
any liquid claim on foreign
money“ - Ellsworth
Foreign Exchange Market –
Characteristics/Nature
Decentralized
market
Transactions
take place
through
electronic media
It is a 24 hours market, 5
Days a week-
Sunday 22:05 GMT to
Friday 21:50 GMT
It’s a 365 days
year market
Largest liquid
financial
market
Currencies are
always traded
in pairs.
Trading can be
done at a
convenience
time
Exchange Rates are quoted in
Pair Currencies – Euro/USD,
USD/Yen, USD/INR (selling
rate/buying rate)
Foreign Exchange Market – Trading
Session
The 24-hour forex trading session can be broken
down into three manageable trading periods.
Peak activity periods are the Asian, European, and
North American sessions, which are also called
Tokyo, London and New York.
The markets are most active when these three
powerhouses are conducting business.
A Day opens at Sydney (2200 GMT) and Tokyo
(0000 GMT) and the day closes at New York (2200
GMT)
Foreign Exchange Market – Trading
Session
Foreign Exchange Market –Statistics
https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf#page=7
Foreign Exchange Market –Statistics
Source:
https://asianbankingandfinance.net/foreign-exchange/more-news/global-fx-market-
daily-turnover-hits-66t-in-2020
4
5.1
6.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
FX Daily Turnover – in Trillion $
2010 2016 2020
1.3 Foreign Exchange Market
• Analyse the recent trends in Trade for the previous
Financial Year by taking the data of
• Top economies
• Developing economies
• Underdeveloped economies
1.4 Foreign Exchange Market-Market
Participants
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/y9jx2hvz
https://tinyurl.com/yaz475nt
Foreign Exchange Market Participants
Interbank /
Wholesale
Foreign
Exchange Market
Retail Foreign
Exchange Market
• Foreign Exchange Dealers
• Foreign Exchange Brokers
• Hedgers
• Speculators
• Arbitragers
• Central Banks
• Treasuries
• Individuals
• Small companies
• Small exporters and importers
• Money transfer
companies/remittance
companies
1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/y8p47rk5
Worked Out Problems Link
https://tinyurl.com/y87tj7m4
Foreign Exchange Rates
A Rate at which a
currency is
exchanged with
other currency
A Rate at which a
currency is
expressed in terms
of other currency
A rate at which a
currency can be
bought or sold
1 USD = INR 75.88 1 EUR = INR 82.09
Foreign Exchange Rates
USD/INR –
Base/Quote,
INR/USD –
Base/Quote
Base Currency
is quoted first
Base Currency
value is always
equal to 1
USD/INR = 75.88
Inference: If
you buy 1 USD
you have to
pay 75.88 INR
(or) if you sell 1
USD you will
get 75.88 INR
EUR/USD = 1.18
Inference: If
you buy 1 EUR
it will costs
1.18 USD
(or) if you sell 1
EUR you will
get 1.18 USD
Foreign Exchange Rates – Significance of decimal
points
Forex quotation
in interbank
market is
normally
expressed up to
4 points after
decimal while
for retail
quotations it is
given up to 2
points after
decimal.
This is done
because size
for each trade
in interbank
market is big,
even a 1 point
difference in the
4th point after
decimal makes
a substantial
difference.
For example, let
us compare two
quotations:
USD/INR
45.7097 and
USD/INR 45.70.
Suppose a
trader wants to
sell 70,000
USD and
receive INR.
Using the first quote,
the trader would
receive INR
3,199,679
Using the second
quote, the trader
would receive INR
3,199,000
a difference of
INR 679.
Foreign Exchange Rates
Foreign exchange rates are quoted as
Inter bank
Quotations –
European
Terms,
American
Terms
Direct and
Indirect
Quotations
Bid and Ask
Quotations
Quote =
Price of a
currency
expressed
in the
units of
another
currency.
Foreign Exchange Rates - Inter bank
Quotations
• European Terms - the number of units of foreign currency needed to
purchase 1 USD (Exchange rate is quoted in terms of Home Currency)
CAD 1.41 / 1 USD (1 USD = 1.41 CAD)
Brazilian Real 5.86 / 1 USD (1 USD = 5.86 BR)
INR 75.88 / 1 USD (1 USD = 75.88 INR)
• American terms – the number of units of USD needed to purchase one
unit of foreign currency (Exchange rate is quoted in terms of USD)
USD 0.71 / 1 CAD (1 CAD= 0.71 USD)
USD 0.71 / 1 Brazilian Real (1 BR= 0.71 USD)
USD 0.013 / 1 INR (1 INR= 0.013 USD)
Foreign Exchange Rates - Direct and Indirect
Quotation
• Direct Quote - A direct quote is a home currency price of One Unit of
foreign currency. (Exchange Rate is quoted in Home Currency) (Value
of the domestic currency varies and value of the foreign currency
remains fixed)
• In India, we follow Direct quote since 1994.
• INR 75.88 / 1 USD – Indian Resident (1 USD = 75.88 INR)
• USD0.020673 / 1 INR – USA Resident (1 INR= 0.020673USD)
• INR 82.09 / 1 EUR – Indian Resident (1 EUR= 82.09 INR)
• EUR 0.012 / 1 INR – UK Resident (1 INR= 0.012 EUR)
Foreign Exchange Rates - Direct and
Indirect Quotation
Indirect Quote - An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of One
unit of home currency.
(Exchange Rate is quoted in Foreign Currency)
(Value of the domestic currency remains fixed and value of the foreign
currency varies)
•USD 0.01317 / 1 INR – Indian Resident (1 INR= 0.020673USD)
• EUR 0.012 / 1 INR – Indian Resident (1 INR= 0.012 EUR)
• INR 75.88 / 1 USD – USA Resident (1 USD = 75.88 INR)
• INR 82.09 / 1 EUR – UK Resident (1 EUR= 82.09 INR)
Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations
• All forex quotations are expressed in term of bid and ask rates.
• Bid - A bid is the exchange rate of one currency at which a dealer will
buy another currency.
• Ask (Offer) – An ask is the exchange rate of one currency at which a
dealer will sell the other currency.
• Bid and Ask is always seller’s point of view
Bid = Buy
Ask = Sell
Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations
• Suppose SBI, a dealer in forex, is quoting bid-ask
EUR/INR of 76.5025 to 76.5048 or 76.5025/76.5048 or 76.5025/48
(or BID/ASK or BUY/SELL)
Inference:
• Bid Rate - SBI is willing to buy 1 Euro from the counterparty and pay
INR 76.5025
• Ask Rate - SBI is willing to sell (or give) 1 Euro to counterparty and
accept (or receive) INR 76.5048.
• Ask - Bid = Spread. Spread = Profit/Loss
𝑆𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 =
𝐴𝑠𝑘 − 𝐵𝑖𝑑
𝐵𝑖𝑑
∗ 100
Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations
(Calculations showing Spread)
Interbank Forex Quotations
Bid (Buy) Ask (Sell) Bid-ask = Spread
GBP/USD 1.62536 1.62576 USD 0.00040/GBP
GBP/AUD 1.7703 1.7714 AUD 0.0011/GBP
JPY/USD 0.01136 0.0114 USD 0.0016/JPY
NZD/USD 0.73665 0.73705 USD 0.0040/NZD
Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask
Quotations
1 USD= 75 INR
INR in terms of USD?
1 INR = 1/75 USD
Interbank Forex Quotations
Bid (Buy) Ask (Sell)
GBP/USD 1.62536 1.62576
USD/GBP 1/ASK 1/BID
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate
• A cross rate is a rate which exchange rate can be calculated from two
other rates. For calculation of cross rates, both rates must have one
common currency.
• What would be the exchange rates between FRF/INR?
• When the direct quote is not available for FRF/INR we need to use
Cross Exchange rate to find the exchange rate.
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate
Assume:
• In Mumbai – 1 USD= 75.88/75.90 INR
• In London – 1 USD= 6.05/6.08 FRF
Procedure:
Step 1: We need to sell INR and get USD from Mumbai (75.90 INR)
Step 2: Sell USD and get FRF from London (6.05 FRF)
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross
Exchange Rate
• A. 1 USD = 75.90 INR
• B. I USD = 6.05 FRF
• C. 1 USD = 6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR
• D. i.e 6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR
• 1 FRF = (75.90/6.05) INR
• Integrating Mumbai and London
1 USD = 75.90 INR =
• Therefore to calculate Direct Quote FRF/INR,
6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR (or)
1 FRF = (75.90/6.05)INR
1 FRF= 12.5454 INR
i.e. FRF/INR= 12.5454
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange
Rate
• If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in
London the exchange rate is 1 USD = 0.7846/0.7849 EUR, what is the
exchange rate between EUR/INR?
• Mumbai – 1 USD= 55.2100 INR, London – 1 USD=0.7846 EUR
• Therefore, 1 USD = 55.2100 INR = 0.7846 EUR
07846 EUR= 55.2100 INR
1 EUR = (55.2100/0.07846)INR
1 EUR = 70.3670 INR
If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in London the
exchange rate is 1 EUR = 1.2740/2745 USD, what is the exchange rate between
EUR/INR?
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate
• If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in
London the exchange rate is 1 EUR = 1.2740/2745 USD, what is the
exchange rate between EUR/INR?
• Mumbai – 1 USD= 55.2100 INR, London – 1 EUR=1.2740 USD
• Therefore, 1 EUR = 1.2740 USD and 1 USD = 55.2100 INR
1 EUR = USD * INR , i.e. 1 EUR = 1.2740 USD * 55.2100 INR
1 EUR= 70.33754 INR
Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross
Exchange Rate
Spot Rates and Cross Rate Calculation
USD/CAD USD/AUD CAD/AUD &
AUD/CAD
Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask
1.1641 1.1646 1.2948 1.2956 ? ?
Dealer Buy Sell
Trader Sell Buy
Foreign Exchange Rates – Types of Contracts
Types of
Contracts
Spot
Contract /
Cash
Transaction
Forward
Contract
Futures
Contract Swap
Contract
Options
Contract
Foreign Exchange Rates – Spot Contract
When a person goes to money changer/bank and buys one currency by paying
another currency is an example of spot transaction (or spot delivery) and the
rate quoted by the money changer/bank is the spot rate.
For example, in India, some hotels buy or sell foreign currency over the
counter.
In the above example, the trade date and settlement date coincide.
Actual settlement for the agreed amount may take place on T+1 or latest by
T+2 days in case of when interbank market, banks and financial institutions
buy and sell currencies
Foreign Exchange Rates – Spot Contract
execution in India
• The trade date is the day on which both parties agree to buy and sell.
• The settlement date is the day on which funds are actually transferred
between the buyer and seller.
Different types of delivery/settlement under spot transaction.
Ready or
cash
The transaction to be settled on the same day
Tom
T+1
The delivery of foreign exchange to be made on the day
next (tomorrow) to the date of transaction.
Spot
T+2
Delivery of foreign exchange would take place on the 2nd
working day from the trade date.
Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract
Forward
Contract
In a forward contract
both parties enter
into a contract on a
given day and lock in
a fixed rate on
specific future date.
In such types of contract,
the terms of the trade
(buy or sell) are agreed
up front (trade execution
date) but actual
exchange take place on
a date in the future
(maturity date).
On the maturity
date, both parties
exchange the pre-
negotiated rate.
There is no standard
clause regarding the
duration of the forward
contract. As these are
OTC contracts, as
long as both parties
agree, forward
contract maturity can
be of any duration.
Forward contracts
can be closed early,
extended or cancelled
altogether. But it
comes with some
cost.
Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract
• For example, an Indian company which is likely to earn foreign currency Euro on
account of an export order after one month, may enter into a contract today
(trade execution date) to sell Euro and receive Indian Rupees after 1 month
(maturity date). The rate is fixed on the trade date and the rate is be known as
Fwd- 1 month rate.
• Suppose on trade date, the Indian exporter agrees to sell EURO 1000 and
receive INR 72450. On the maturity date, he delivers EURO 1000 and receives
INR 72450. Such types of forward contracts are known as outright forward
contracts (OFTs).
Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract
Fixed Maturity
Contract
the
maturity
date is
fixed
Partially
Optional
Contracts -
settlement of the
transaction can
happen at any
time during the
option start date
and on before
maturity
Fully Optional
Contract
the contract may
end anytime
during the life of
the contract i.e.
anytime during
trade execution
date and
maturity date
Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract
• In a forward contract, the bank/forex dealer and counterparty agree to
buy/sell foreign currency at a future date at rate fixed today.
• In forward contract, both parties agrees on a forward trade at day 0,
but actual settlement happens after the maturity of the contract.
Outright
USDINR Bid Rate Ask Rate
Spot 47.0725 47.0745
1 week 47.0750 47.0775
2 weeks 47.0795 47.0835
1 month 47.0840 47.0890
Point System
USD/INR Bid in
points
Ask in
points
Spot 47.0725 47.0745
1 week 25 30
2 weeks 70 90
1 month 115 145
Foreign Exchange Rates – How to Calculate
Forward Contract ?
The Thumb Rule to calculate Forward Contract Price is High-Low Thumb Rule or Low-
High Thumb Rule
If Bid in points > Ask in points Points are subtracted from the spot
If Bid in points < ask in points Points are added to the spot
Quotes given by Forex dealer
USD/INR BID ASK
Spot 47.0725 47.0745
1 Week 35 30
2 Weeks 40 33
1 month 60 45
2 months 75 55
Forward Rates Calculated
USD/INR BID ASK
Spot 47.0725 47.0745
1 Week 47.0690 47.0715
2 Weeks 47.0685 47.0712
1 month 47.0665 47.0700
2 months 47.065 47.0690
Rule
Bid > Ask
Bid > Ask
Bid > Ask
Bid > Ask
Premium/Discount Annualised Percentage =
FR−SR
SR
∗ 𝑛 ∗ 100
When FR>SR = Forward Premium
When FR<SR = Forward Discount
FR = Forward Rate, SR = Spot Rate,
n= No. of converts
If 90 days is given in sum, then 90*4=360 , Therefore n= 4
If 180 days is given in sum, then 180*2=360, Therefore n=2
If 30 days is given in sum, then 30*12=360, Therefore n=12
If 6 months is given in sum, then 6*2=12 months, Therefore n=2
If 3 months is given in sum, then 3*4=12 months, Therefore n=4
Forward Premium/Discount
Sum 1: Assume the following quoted are given for 90 days contract.
Calculate Premium/Discount Annualised Percentage if
FR=$0.8500/Pounds, SR=$0.8576/Pound.
Since FR<SR, we need to calculated Forward Discount, n=4
Forward Discount Annualised Percentage =
FR−SR
SR
∗ 𝑛 ∗ 100
=
0.8500−0.8576
0.8576
∗ 4 ∗ 100 = 3.54% p.a
Forward Premium/Discount
Sum 2: The Danish Kroner(DKr) is quoted in New York at
$0.18536/DKr Spot, $0.18525/DKr 30 days forward, $0.18510/DKr 90
days forward, $0.18485/DKr 180 days forward. Calculate the forward
premium/discount on the Kroner
Forward Premium/Discount
Foreign Exchange Rates – Futures contract
An exchange traded
forward contract is known
as futures contract.
Futures contracts are
standardized – contract
size, maturity period.
The clearing house associated with
exchange takes the counterparty
risk – risk that the loss making party
does not deliver during the maturity
period.
In India, forex futures contracts on
INR/US$, INR/Euro, INR/Pound Sterling
and INR/Japanese Yen are traded at
some Indian exchanges like National
Stock Exchange and United Stock
Exchange.
Futures
Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract
US Company
(invest in India)
Borrow
Borrow from US Bank =
6% Interest
Borrow from Indian Bank
= 9 % Interest
Indian
Company
(Invest in USA)
Borrow
Borrow from Indian
Bank = 6% Interest
Borrow from USA
Bank = 9 % Interest
Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract
US Company Borrow
Borrow from
US Bank = 6%
Interest
Indian
Company
Borrow
Borrow from
Indian Bank =
6% Interest
SWAP
Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract
US Company Return
Swapped
Indian Money
Indian
Company
Return
Swapped US
Money
Foreign Exchange Rates – Options Contract
• Option = Right but not obligation
• 1 USD= INR 50
• Call Option = Right to buy and not the obligation to buy
• Spot exchange rate is higher than the strike exchange rate
• Put Option = Right to sell and not the obligation to sell
• Spot exchange rate is lesser than the strike exchange rate
1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates
• Find out the Bid rate and offer rates for the following 5
currencies in correspondence with INR as on the date
– USD/INR, GBP/INR, EUR/INR, CHY/INR, JPY/INR.
• Calculate cross rates for the following.
Currency Pair 1 Currency Pair 2 Cross Rates
USD/INR GBP/USD GBP/INR
GBP/INR EUR/GBP EUR/INR
EUR/INR CHY/EUR CHY/INR
CHY/INR JPY/CHY JPY/INR
JPY/INR USD/JPY USD/INR
1.6 Factors determining Foreign
Exchange Rates
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/y7ozq5pn
Factors Determination of exchange rates
Balance of
Payments
Fiscal Policy Interest Rate
Central Bank
Intervention
Speculation
Expectations
and traders
behaviour
Demand for Foreign Exchange
• Import of Goods/Services
• Dividend, Interest and Profits
• Unilateral Payments
• Export of Capital
Supply of Foreign Exchange
• Exports of Goods/Services
• Dividend, Interest and profits
• Unilateral Receipts
• Import of Capital
1.6 Factors determining Foreign
Exchange Rates
• Consider the following data 1 USD = 75.18 INR, 1
Pound = 94.32 INR, 1 Yuan = 10.58 INR, 1 Euro =
83.97 INR. Analyze why Indian Currency is of lesser
value when compared to Dollars, Pound Sterling,
Yuan, Euro ?
• Draw a bar chart of Indian Currency Exchange Rate
in comparison with the above mentioned currencies
for the last 5 years by taking the average data.
1.7 International Monetary System,
Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods
System
Video Link
https://tinyurl.com/y7lwxtep
• The Set of rules, conventions and institutions that governs the
international trade, business, investment are referred to as IMS.
• IMS facilitated the transactions between the countries in relation to
trade and business.
• IMS provides a framework through which forex rate is determined.
International Monetary System(IMS)
• Gold Standard (1870’s-Pegged Exchange Rate System)
• Bretton Woods System (1944-Fixed Exchange Rate System)
• Flexible Exchange Rate System (1973)
Evolution of IMS
International Monetary System – Gold
Standard-
The gold
standard is a
system in which
international
currencies are
tied to a specific
amount of gold.
Currency
Value =
Weight of
the Gold
No
restrictions
in the flow of
Gold
between
countries
Gold Reserves
used to back
up the Value of
the currency.
All payments
were settled
through gold
majorly.
If a country
imports more
than export gold
flowed out and
vice versa
1. US = $ 20.67/1 Ounce of Gold
2. Britain= GBP 4.7247/1 Ounce of Gold
3 .Therefore 1 Ounce of Gold = $20.67 = GBP 4.7247
i.e $20.67 = GBP 4.7247
1$ = GBP4.7247/20.67, 1$=GBP 0.2296
1 GBP = $20.67/4.7247, 1 GBP = $ 4.86656
• Gold standard facilitates the imbalance in the BoP i.e.,
Export<Imports, Imports<Exports
Gold Standard
• E.g- If Germany as a Trade Deficit i.e. Export<Imports
• Gold flowed out of Germany for settlement of Trade
• When ever gold flows out, availability of gold reduces thus shrinks the
money supply of Germany
• When money supply reduces, prices of the product comes down
making the products to be affordable and competitive
• Thus when export increases the deficit is wiped out i.e Export =
Import.
Gold Standard
Suspension of Gold Standard
With the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, the international
trading system broke down and nations valued their currencies by
fiat instead
Governments took their currencies off the gold standard and simply
dictated the value of their money and printed currencies without backup
Countries restricted the free flow of Gold
Some nations attempted to reinstate the gold standard at pre-war rates,
but drastic changes in the global economy made such attempts futile.
Suspension of Gold Standard
US became the first nation to re-adopt gold standard in1919 and
Britain in 1925.
In 1930’s Great Depression made Britain's Gold reserve to deplete and
it was impossible for them to maintain gold standard.
In 1931, British suspended Gold convertibility and let the Pound to
float
US was the only country with more gold reserves and it also got
depleted and US abandoned Gold Standard in April 1933.
International Monetary System – Bretton Woods
Agreement and System
The Bretton Woods Agreement was negotiated in July 1944 by delegates from 44
countries at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference held in
Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. Thus, the name “Bretton Woods Agreement.
The principal goal was to create an efficient foreign exchange system
The Bretton Woods Agreement also created two important organizations—the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
The Bretton Woods System required a currency peg to the U.S. dollar which was
in turn pegged to the price of gold.($35)
Bretton Woods Agreement
Each country agreed to fix up
their par value of its currency
to USD. This par value
determined the exchange
rate.
US and UK
wanted to
revamp the
world monetary
system
USD was the main
reserve held by Central
Banks and the only
currency that was
directly converted into
gold was USD
International Monetary System – Bretton Woods
Agreement and System
United States of America, at that time, was accounted for over half of
the world's manufacturing capacity and held most of the world's gold,
the leaders decided to tie world currencies to the US dollar, which, in
turn, they agreed should be convertible into gold at $35 per ounce.
Under the Bretton Woods system, Central Banks of participating
countries were given the task of maintaining fixed exchange rates
between their currencies and the US-dollar.
The threshold limit was fixed to +/- 1%
International Monetary System – Bretton Woods
Agreement and System
Suppose assume the fixed exchange rate of
INR in terms of USD is Rs 10 (this is arrived
based on $35/ounce)
If this rate reduces it can go up to Rs 9 or if it
raises it can go up to Rs 11
In case if it goes beyond Rs 11 then the
member country has to bring that price in
control by providing with dollars
In case if it falls below Rs 9 then the member
country has to control by purchasing dollars
International Monetary System – Bretton Woods
Agreement and System
The par value was allowed to be changed when
there was a deficit in the trade
For a change of 10% IMF approval was not
required
For a change of more than 10% IMF approval
was required.
Collapse of Bretton Woods
In 1960’s
various
expansion
programme
was taken by
US and it had
to face a trade
deficit
because of
the
expansion.
Member
countries lost
confidence on
USD and
started to
convert USD
into Gold
As a result
Gold reserves
in US treasury
began to fall
and in August
1971, US
suspended
convertibility
of USD to
Gold.
In Dec
1971,
Smithsonian
Agreement
fixed up at
$38 per
ounce with
+/- 2.5%
Collapse of Bretton Woods
In February
1973, $42 per
ounce with +/-
2.5%
By March,
1973 the
Bretton
Woods
System had
collapsed.
Countries
were then free
to choose any
exchange
arrangement
for their
currency,
except
pegging its
value to the
price of gold.
Then paper
currencies
standard which is
neither linked to
gold or US-dollar
or any other
foreign currencies
and they have
adopted the
currency system
which is “flexible
exchange rate
system in 1976.
1.7 International Monetary System,
Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods
System
• Analyse the impact of Bretton woods system referring to
research papers using EBSCO and submit the analysis in
google classroom
Forex Simulation
CROSSWORD
MCQ Link
• https://quizizz.com/join?gc=8595131

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IF Module - 1.pptx

  • 1. SRI KRISHNA COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT 21PNE008 – International Finance Saravanan R Assistant Professor Unit 1 Introduction
  • 2.
  • 3. Topics Covered 1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction 1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics 1.3 Foreign Exchange Market 1.4 Market Participants 1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates 1.6 Factors determining Foreign Exchange Rates 1.7 International Monetary System-Gold Standard-The Bretton woods system. 1.8 Glossary
  • 4. 1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction Video Link https://tinyurl.com/yajyzbhk
  • 5. History Barter System- 6000 B.C Prehistoric currency involving easily traded goods like animal skins, salt and weapons developed over the centuries 770 B.C., the Chinese used miniature replicas of the same tools cast in bronze 600 B.C. Lydia's King Alyattes minted the first official currency and it was stamped with pictures that acted as denominations. Civilization, Need and Wants laid a road map for Trade / International Trade
  • 6. Globalization is not a phenomena The Colonial Expansion led the way for International Trade In 1870’s the Industrial Revolution paved the way for establishing Global Market Second World war and the Great Depression in 1930’s created crises in the Global Economy Thus the need for regularization aroused which led to the creation of GATT and IBRD History (…Continued)
  • 7. Trade and its type – Goods/Services transferred with Monetary value Local Trade - Trade inside the state National Trade - Trade between states International Trade - Trade between Countries
  • 9. International Financial Management – What? IFM may be defined as the management of the whole gamut of finance operations relating to international activities of business organization Management of financial resources in the context of international economic activities is referred to as IFM
  • 10. International Financial Environment in India - Timeline Pre Colonial Q1 Q Q3 Q4 Manufacturing Hub 01 Colonial Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Raw Material Export 02 Post Independence Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Deficit Balance of Trade and Payments for 40 Years 03 Post 1991 - 1992 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 LPG 05 Forex Reserves - $5.8 billion as of March 1991
  • 11. Why India went for LPG? Foreign exchange reserves were almost Nil during 1990-1991. Foreign reserves are a base for a country to print its currency India forced itself to join the forum of world trade to counter the imbalance in foreign reserves. As a result India went for LPG in 1991-92 under the Congress Government led by Late Prime Minister Narashima Rao and then Finance Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.
  • 12. International Financial – Openness Trade to GDP Ratio = (Import + Export) / GDP As per 2021 data released by WTO, the Trade to GDP Ratio of India is 43.68% and stands below in the table compared to other countries In India post 1991 – Openness was 15% to liberalization i.e Trade to GDP Ratio was 15%
  • 13. Trade to GDP Ratio – Ranking- Top 5 and Bottom 5 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD. GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=true Top 5 Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value Hong Kong 2021 403 Luxembourg 2021 389 Singapore 2021 338 San Marino 2021 305 Malta 2021 283 Bottom 5 Country Most Recent Year Most Recent Value Afghanistan 2021 25 Ethiopia 2021 24 United States 2021 23 Cuba 2021 16 Sudan 2021 4
  • 14. Trade to GDP Ratio – World – Source: World Bank Data
  • 15. Trade to GDP Ratio – India – Source: World Bank Data •
  • 16. International Financial Management – Why? Money and Risk travel parallelly Money flow inward and outward simultaneously Decision in terms of Finance and business has to be taken at every incidence Movement of Money is complex How to reduce risk? How to maximize profit? How to maximize wealth?
  • 17. 1.1 Foreign Exchange–Introduction •Identify the goods (sector wise) that are exported from India and Imported to India in large quantity for the past three years. •Analyse the impact of Foreign Trade in India’s Economy- sector wise •Do you think Liberalization has given a boost to India’s Trade?-substantiate with data
  • 18. 1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics Video Link https://tinyurl.com/y8plhkv6
  • 19. • Foreign Exchange means Foreign Currency held by the host country • FX is used to make payments at the time of international trade. • FX acts as a base for our country to print Indian Rupees. Foreign Exchange–Basics (FX)
  • 20. Foreign Exchange Reserves of India Source:https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/WSSViewDetail.aspx?TYPE=Section&PARAM1=2 Foreign Exchange–Basics (FX) Item As on Sep, 2022 ₹ Cr. US$ Mn. 1 2 1 Total Reserves 4351017 545652 1.1 Foreign Currency Assets 3866549 484901 1.2 Gold 304491 38186 1.3 SDRs 141030 17686
  • 21. 1.2 Foreign Exchange–Basics • From Newspaper articles take snapshots of data of news articles in terms of Forex and make a presentation on it and upload in google classroom. • Using Tableau, represent the Forex reserves that Post Independence, Post LPG, Post 2008, Post GST.
  • 22. 1.3 Foreign Exchange Market Video Link https://tinyurl.com/ybrcdmfs https://tinyurl.com/y8xnjylo
  • 24. Foreign Exchange Market The FX market is a market in which foreign exchange transactions take place. A FX market refers to buying foreign currencies with domestic currencies and selling foreign currencies for domestic currencies. "A Foreign Exchange Market comprises of all those institutions and individuals who buy and sell foreign exchange which may be defined as foreign money or any liquid claim on foreign money“ - Ellsworth
  • 25. Foreign Exchange Market – Characteristics/Nature Decentralized market Transactions take place through electronic media It is a 24 hours market, 5 Days a week- Sunday 22:05 GMT to Friday 21:50 GMT It’s a 365 days year market Largest liquid financial market Currencies are always traded in pairs. Trading can be done at a convenience time Exchange Rates are quoted in Pair Currencies – Euro/USD, USD/Yen, USD/INR (selling rate/buying rate)
  • 26. Foreign Exchange Market – Trading Session The 24-hour forex trading session can be broken down into three manageable trading periods. Peak activity periods are the Asian, European, and North American sessions, which are also called Tokyo, London and New York. The markets are most active when these three powerhouses are conducting business. A Day opens at Sydney (2200 GMT) and Tokyo (0000 GMT) and the day closes at New York (2200 GMT)
  • 27. Foreign Exchange Market – Trading Session
  • 28. Foreign Exchange Market –Statistics https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf#page=7
  • 29. Foreign Exchange Market –Statistics Source: https://asianbankingandfinance.net/foreign-exchange/more-news/global-fx-market- daily-turnover-hits-66t-in-2020 4 5.1 6.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 FX Daily Turnover – in Trillion $ 2010 2016 2020
  • 30. 1.3 Foreign Exchange Market • Analyse the recent trends in Trade for the previous Financial Year by taking the data of • Top economies • Developing economies • Underdeveloped economies
  • 31. 1.4 Foreign Exchange Market-Market Participants Video Link https://tinyurl.com/y9jx2hvz https://tinyurl.com/yaz475nt
  • 32. Foreign Exchange Market Participants Interbank / Wholesale Foreign Exchange Market Retail Foreign Exchange Market • Foreign Exchange Dealers • Foreign Exchange Brokers • Hedgers • Speculators • Arbitragers • Central Banks • Treasuries • Individuals • Small companies • Small exporters and importers • Money transfer companies/remittance companies
  • 33. 1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates Video Link https://tinyurl.com/y8p47rk5 Worked Out Problems Link https://tinyurl.com/y87tj7m4
  • 34. Foreign Exchange Rates A Rate at which a currency is exchanged with other currency A Rate at which a currency is expressed in terms of other currency A rate at which a currency can be bought or sold 1 USD = INR 75.88 1 EUR = INR 82.09
  • 35. Foreign Exchange Rates USD/INR – Base/Quote, INR/USD – Base/Quote Base Currency is quoted first Base Currency value is always equal to 1 USD/INR = 75.88 Inference: If you buy 1 USD you have to pay 75.88 INR (or) if you sell 1 USD you will get 75.88 INR EUR/USD = 1.18 Inference: If you buy 1 EUR it will costs 1.18 USD (or) if you sell 1 EUR you will get 1.18 USD
  • 36. Foreign Exchange Rates – Significance of decimal points Forex quotation in interbank market is normally expressed up to 4 points after decimal while for retail quotations it is given up to 2 points after decimal. This is done because size for each trade in interbank market is big, even a 1 point difference in the 4th point after decimal makes a substantial difference. For example, let us compare two quotations: USD/INR 45.7097 and USD/INR 45.70. Suppose a trader wants to sell 70,000 USD and receive INR. Using the first quote, the trader would receive INR 3,199,679 Using the second quote, the trader would receive INR 3,199,000 a difference of INR 679.
  • 37. Foreign Exchange Rates Foreign exchange rates are quoted as Inter bank Quotations – European Terms, American Terms Direct and Indirect Quotations Bid and Ask Quotations Quote = Price of a currency expressed in the units of another currency.
  • 38. Foreign Exchange Rates - Inter bank Quotations • European Terms - the number of units of foreign currency needed to purchase 1 USD (Exchange rate is quoted in terms of Home Currency) CAD 1.41 / 1 USD (1 USD = 1.41 CAD) Brazilian Real 5.86 / 1 USD (1 USD = 5.86 BR) INR 75.88 / 1 USD (1 USD = 75.88 INR) • American terms – the number of units of USD needed to purchase one unit of foreign currency (Exchange rate is quoted in terms of USD) USD 0.71 / 1 CAD (1 CAD= 0.71 USD) USD 0.71 / 1 Brazilian Real (1 BR= 0.71 USD) USD 0.013 / 1 INR (1 INR= 0.013 USD)
  • 39. Foreign Exchange Rates - Direct and Indirect Quotation • Direct Quote - A direct quote is a home currency price of One Unit of foreign currency. (Exchange Rate is quoted in Home Currency) (Value of the domestic currency varies and value of the foreign currency remains fixed) • In India, we follow Direct quote since 1994. • INR 75.88 / 1 USD – Indian Resident (1 USD = 75.88 INR) • USD0.020673 / 1 INR – USA Resident (1 INR= 0.020673USD) • INR 82.09 / 1 EUR – Indian Resident (1 EUR= 82.09 INR) • EUR 0.012 / 1 INR – UK Resident (1 INR= 0.012 EUR)
  • 40. Foreign Exchange Rates - Direct and Indirect Quotation Indirect Quote - An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of One unit of home currency. (Exchange Rate is quoted in Foreign Currency) (Value of the domestic currency remains fixed and value of the foreign currency varies) •USD 0.01317 / 1 INR – Indian Resident (1 INR= 0.020673USD) • EUR 0.012 / 1 INR – Indian Resident (1 INR= 0.012 EUR) • INR 75.88 / 1 USD – USA Resident (1 USD = 75.88 INR) • INR 82.09 / 1 EUR – UK Resident (1 EUR= 82.09 INR)
  • 41. Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations • All forex quotations are expressed in term of bid and ask rates. • Bid - A bid is the exchange rate of one currency at which a dealer will buy another currency. • Ask (Offer) – An ask is the exchange rate of one currency at which a dealer will sell the other currency. • Bid and Ask is always seller’s point of view Bid = Buy Ask = Sell
  • 42. Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations • Suppose SBI, a dealer in forex, is quoting bid-ask EUR/INR of 76.5025 to 76.5048 or 76.5025/76.5048 or 76.5025/48 (or BID/ASK or BUY/SELL) Inference: • Bid Rate - SBI is willing to buy 1 Euro from the counterparty and pay INR 76.5025 • Ask Rate - SBI is willing to sell (or give) 1 Euro to counterparty and accept (or receive) INR 76.5048. • Ask - Bid = Spread. Spread = Profit/Loss 𝑆𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝐴𝑠𝑘 − 𝐵𝑖𝑑 𝐵𝑖𝑑 ∗ 100
  • 43. Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations (Calculations showing Spread) Interbank Forex Quotations Bid (Buy) Ask (Sell) Bid-ask = Spread GBP/USD 1.62536 1.62576 USD 0.00040/GBP GBP/AUD 1.7703 1.7714 AUD 0.0011/GBP JPY/USD 0.01136 0.0114 USD 0.0016/JPY NZD/USD 0.73665 0.73705 USD 0.0040/NZD
  • 44. Foreign Exchange Rates - Bid and Ask Quotations 1 USD= 75 INR INR in terms of USD? 1 INR = 1/75 USD Interbank Forex Quotations Bid (Buy) Ask (Sell) GBP/USD 1.62536 1.62576 USD/GBP 1/ASK 1/BID
  • 45. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate • A cross rate is a rate which exchange rate can be calculated from two other rates. For calculation of cross rates, both rates must have one common currency. • What would be the exchange rates between FRF/INR? • When the direct quote is not available for FRF/INR we need to use Cross Exchange rate to find the exchange rate.
  • 46. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate Assume: • In Mumbai – 1 USD= 75.88/75.90 INR • In London – 1 USD= 6.05/6.08 FRF Procedure: Step 1: We need to sell INR and get USD from Mumbai (75.90 INR) Step 2: Sell USD and get FRF from London (6.05 FRF)
  • 47. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate • A. 1 USD = 75.90 INR • B. I USD = 6.05 FRF • C. 1 USD = 6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR • D. i.e 6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR • 1 FRF = (75.90/6.05) INR • Integrating Mumbai and London 1 USD = 75.90 INR = • Therefore to calculate Direct Quote FRF/INR, 6.05 FRF = 75.90 INR (or) 1 FRF = (75.90/6.05)INR 1 FRF= 12.5454 INR i.e. FRF/INR= 12.5454
  • 48. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate • If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in London the exchange rate is 1 USD = 0.7846/0.7849 EUR, what is the exchange rate between EUR/INR? • Mumbai – 1 USD= 55.2100 INR, London – 1 USD=0.7846 EUR • Therefore, 1 USD = 55.2100 INR = 0.7846 EUR 07846 EUR= 55.2100 INR 1 EUR = (55.2100/0.07846)INR 1 EUR = 70.3670 INR
  • 49. If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in London the exchange rate is 1 EUR = 1.2740/2745 USD, what is the exchange rate between EUR/INR?
  • 50. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate • If the exchange rate in Mumbai is 1 USD= Rs.55.2050/2100 and in London the exchange rate is 1 EUR = 1.2740/2745 USD, what is the exchange rate between EUR/INR? • Mumbai – 1 USD= 55.2100 INR, London – 1 EUR=1.2740 USD • Therefore, 1 EUR = 1.2740 USD and 1 USD = 55.2100 INR 1 EUR = USD * INR , i.e. 1 EUR = 1.2740 USD * 55.2100 INR 1 EUR= 70.33754 INR
  • 51. Foreign Exchange Rates – Cross Exchange Rate Spot Rates and Cross Rate Calculation USD/CAD USD/AUD CAD/AUD & AUD/CAD Bid Ask Bid Ask Bid Ask 1.1641 1.1646 1.2948 1.2956 ? ? Dealer Buy Sell Trader Sell Buy
  • 52. Foreign Exchange Rates – Types of Contracts Types of Contracts Spot Contract / Cash Transaction Forward Contract Futures Contract Swap Contract Options Contract
  • 53. Foreign Exchange Rates – Spot Contract When a person goes to money changer/bank and buys one currency by paying another currency is an example of spot transaction (or spot delivery) and the rate quoted by the money changer/bank is the spot rate. For example, in India, some hotels buy or sell foreign currency over the counter. In the above example, the trade date and settlement date coincide. Actual settlement for the agreed amount may take place on T+1 or latest by T+2 days in case of when interbank market, banks and financial institutions buy and sell currencies
  • 54. Foreign Exchange Rates – Spot Contract execution in India • The trade date is the day on which both parties agree to buy and sell. • The settlement date is the day on which funds are actually transferred between the buyer and seller. Different types of delivery/settlement under spot transaction. Ready or cash The transaction to be settled on the same day Tom T+1 The delivery of foreign exchange to be made on the day next (tomorrow) to the date of transaction. Spot T+2 Delivery of foreign exchange would take place on the 2nd working day from the trade date.
  • 55. Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract Forward Contract In a forward contract both parties enter into a contract on a given day and lock in a fixed rate on specific future date. In such types of contract, the terms of the trade (buy or sell) are agreed up front (trade execution date) but actual exchange take place on a date in the future (maturity date). On the maturity date, both parties exchange the pre- negotiated rate. There is no standard clause regarding the duration of the forward contract. As these are OTC contracts, as long as both parties agree, forward contract maturity can be of any duration. Forward contracts can be closed early, extended or cancelled altogether. But it comes with some cost.
  • 56. Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract • For example, an Indian company which is likely to earn foreign currency Euro on account of an export order after one month, may enter into a contract today (trade execution date) to sell Euro and receive Indian Rupees after 1 month (maturity date). The rate is fixed on the trade date and the rate is be known as Fwd- 1 month rate. • Suppose on trade date, the Indian exporter agrees to sell EURO 1000 and receive INR 72450. On the maturity date, he delivers EURO 1000 and receives INR 72450. Such types of forward contracts are known as outright forward contracts (OFTs).
  • 57. Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract Fixed Maturity Contract the maturity date is fixed Partially Optional Contracts - settlement of the transaction can happen at any time during the option start date and on before maturity Fully Optional Contract the contract may end anytime during the life of the contract i.e. anytime during trade execution date and maturity date
  • 58. Foreign Exchange Rates – Forward Contract • In a forward contract, the bank/forex dealer and counterparty agree to buy/sell foreign currency at a future date at rate fixed today. • In forward contract, both parties agrees on a forward trade at day 0, but actual settlement happens after the maturity of the contract. Outright USDINR Bid Rate Ask Rate Spot 47.0725 47.0745 1 week 47.0750 47.0775 2 weeks 47.0795 47.0835 1 month 47.0840 47.0890 Point System USD/INR Bid in points Ask in points Spot 47.0725 47.0745 1 week 25 30 2 weeks 70 90 1 month 115 145
  • 59. Foreign Exchange Rates – How to Calculate Forward Contract ? The Thumb Rule to calculate Forward Contract Price is High-Low Thumb Rule or Low- High Thumb Rule If Bid in points > Ask in points Points are subtracted from the spot If Bid in points < ask in points Points are added to the spot Quotes given by Forex dealer USD/INR BID ASK Spot 47.0725 47.0745 1 Week 35 30 2 Weeks 40 33 1 month 60 45 2 months 75 55 Forward Rates Calculated USD/INR BID ASK Spot 47.0725 47.0745 1 Week 47.0690 47.0715 2 Weeks 47.0685 47.0712 1 month 47.0665 47.0700 2 months 47.065 47.0690 Rule Bid > Ask Bid > Ask Bid > Ask Bid > Ask
  • 60. Premium/Discount Annualised Percentage = FR−SR SR ∗ 𝑛 ∗ 100 When FR>SR = Forward Premium When FR<SR = Forward Discount FR = Forward Rate, SR = Spot Rate, n= No. of converts If 90 days is given in sum, then 90*4=360 , Therefore n= 4 If 180 days is given in sum, then 180*2=360, Therefore n=2 If 30 days is given in sum, then 30*12=360, Therefore n=12 If 6 months is given in sum, then 6*2=12 months, Therefore n=2 If 3 months is given in sum, then 3*4=12 months, Therefore n=4 Forward Premium/Discount
  • 61. Sum 1: Assume the following quoted are given for 90 days contract. Calculate Premium/Discount Annualised Percentage if FR=$0.8500/Pounds, SR=$0.8576/Pound. Since FR<SR, we need to calculated Forward Discount, n=4 Forward Discount Annualised Percentage = FR−SR SR ∗ 𝑛 ∗ 100 = 0.8500−0.8576 0.8576 ∗ 4 ∗ 100 = 3.54% p.a Forward Premium/Discount
  • 62. Sum 2: The Danish Kroner(DKr) is quoted in New York at $0.18536/DKr Spot, $0.18525/DKr 30 days forward, $0.18510/DKr 90 days forward, $0.18485/DKr 180 days forward. Calculate the forward premium/discount on the Kroner Forward Premium/Discount
  • 63. Foreign Exchange Rates – Futures contract An exchange traded forward contract is known as futures contract. Futures contracts are standardized – contract size, maturity period. The clearing house associated with exchange takes the counterparty risk – risk that the loss making party does not deliver during the maturity period. In India, forex futures contracts on INR/US$, INR/Euro, INR/Pound Sterling and INR/Japanese Yen are traded at some Indian exchanges like National Stock Exchange and United Stock Exchange. Futures
  • 64. Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract US Company (invest in India) Borrow Borrow from US Bank = 6% Interest Borrow from Indian Bank = 9 % Interest Indian Company (Invest in USA) Borrow Borrow from Indian Bank = 6% Interest Borrow from USA Bank = 9 % Interest
  • 65. Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract US Company Borrow Borrow from US Bank = 6% Interest Indian Company Borrow Borrow from Indian Bank = 6% Interest SWAP
  • 66. Foreign Exchange Rates – Swap Contract US Company Return Swapped Indian Money Indian Company Return Swapped US Money
  • 67. Foreign Exchange Rates – Options Contract • Option = Right but not obligation • 1 USD= INR 50 • Call Option = Right to buy and not the obligation to buy • Spot exchange rate is higher than the strike exchange rate • Put Option = Right to sell and not the obligation to sell • Spot exchange rate is lesser than the strike exchange rate
  • 68. 1.5 Foreign Exchange Rates • Find out the Bid rate and offer rates for the following 5 currencies in correspondence with INR as on the date – USD/INR, GBP/INR, EUR/INR, CHY/INR, JPY/INR. • Calculate cross rates for the following. Currency Pair 1 Currency Pair 2 Cross Rates USD/INR GBP/USD GBP/INR GBP/INR EUR/GBP EUR/INR EUR/INR CHY/EUR CHY/INR CHY/INR JPY/CHY JPY/INR JPY/INR USD/JPY USD/INR
  • 69. 1.6 Factors determining Foreign Exchange Rates Video Link https://tinyurl.com/y7ozq5pn
  • 70. Factors Determination of exchange rates Balance of Payments Fiscal Policy Interest Rate Central Bank Intervention Speculation Expectations and traders behaviour Demand for Foreign Exchange • Import of Goods/Services • Dividend, Interest and Profits • Unilateral Payments • Export of Capital Supply of Foreign Exchange • Exports of Goods/Services • Dividend, Interest and profits • Unilateral Receipts • Import of Capital
  • 71. 1.6 Factors determining Foreign Exchange Rates • Consider the following data 1 USD = 75.18 INR, 1 Pound = 94.32 INR, 1 Yuan = 10.58 INR, 1 Euro = 83.97 INR. Analyze why Indian Currency is of lesser value when compared to Dollars, Pound Sterling, Yuan, Euro ? • Draw a bar chart of Indian Currency Exchange Rate in comparison with the above mentioned currencies for the last 5 years by taking the average data.
  • 72. 1.7 International Monetary System, Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods System Video Link https://tinyurl.com/y7lwxtep
  • 73. • The Set of rules, conventions and institutions that governs the international trade, business, investment are referred to as IMS. • IMS facilitated the transactions between the countries in relation to trade and business. • IMS provides a framework through which forex rate is determined. International Monetary System(IMS)
  • 74. • Gold Standard (1870’s-Pegged Exchange Rate System) • Bretton Woods System (1944-Fixed Exchange Rate System) • Flexible Exchange Rate System (1973) Evolution of IMS
  • 75. International Monetary System – Gold Standard- The gold standard is a system in which international currencies are tied to a specific amount of gold. Currency Value = Weight of the Gold No restrictions in the flow of Gold between countries Gold Reserves used to back up the Value of the currency. All payments were settled through gold majorly. If a country imports more than export gold flowed out and vice versa
  • 76. 1. US = $ 20.67/1 Ounce of Gold 2. Britain= GBP 4.7247/1 Ounce of Gold 3 .Therefore 1 Ounce of Gold = $20.67 = GBP 4.7247 i.e $20.67 = GBP 4.7247 1$ = GBP4.7247/20.67, 1$=GBP 0.2296 1 GBP = $20.67/4.7247, 1 GBP = $ 4.86656 • Gold standard facilitates the imbalance in the BoP i.e., Export<Imports, Imports<Exports Gold Standard
  • 77. • E.g- If Germany as a Trade Deficit i.e. Export<Imports • Gold flowed out of Germany for settlement of Trade • When ever gold flows out, availability of gold reduces thus shrinks the money supply of Germany • When money supply reduces, prices of the product comes down making the products to be affordable and competitive • Thus when export increases the deficit is wiped out i.e Export = Import. Gold Standard
  • 78. Suspension of Gold Standard With the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, the international trading system broke down and nations valued their currencies by fiat instead Governments took their currencies off the gold standard and simply dictated the value of their money and printed currencies without backup Countries restricted the free flow of Gold Some nations attempted to reinstate the gold standard at pre-war rates, but drastic changes in the global economy made such attempts futile.
  • 79. Suspension of Gold Standard US became the first nation to re-adopt gold standard in1919 and Britain in 1925. In 1930’s Great Depression made Britain's Gold reserve to deplete and it was impossible for them to maintain gold standard. In 1931, British suspended Gold convertibility and let the Pound to float US was the only country with more gold reserves and it also got depleted and US abandoned Gold Standard in April 1933.
  • 80. International Monetary System – Bretton Woods Agreement and System The Bretton Woods Agreement was negotiated in July 1944 by delegates from 44 countries at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. Thus, the name “Bretton Woods Agreement. The principal goal was to create an efficient foreign exchange system The Bretton Woods Agreement also created two important organizations—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The Bretton Woods System required a currency peg to the U.S. dollar which was in turn pegged to the price of gold.($35)
  • 81. Bretton Woods Agreement Each country agreed to fix up their par value of its currency to USD. This par value determined the exchange rate. US and UK wanted to revamp the world monetary system USD was the main reserve held by Central Banks and the only currency that was directly converted into gold was USD
  • 82. International Monetary System – Bretton Woods Agreement and System United States of America, at that time, was accounted for over half of the world's manufacturing capacity and held most of the world's gold, the leaders decided to tie world currencies to the US dollar, which, in turn, they agreed should be convertible into gold at $35 per ounce. Under the Bretton Woods system, Central Banks of participating countries were given the task of maintaining fixed exchange rates between their currencies and the US-dollar. The threshold limit was fixed to +/- 1%
  • 83. International Monetary System – Bretton Woods Agreement and System Suppose assume the fixed exchange rate of INR in terms of USD is Rs 10 (this is arrived based on $35/ounce) If this rate reduces it can go up to Rs 9 or if it raises it can go up to Rs 11 In case if it goes beyond Rs 11 then the member country has to bring that price in control by providing with dollars In case if it falls below Rs 9 then the member country has to control by purchasing dollars
  • 84. International Monetary System – Bretton Woods Agreement and System The par value was allowed to be changed when there was a deficit in the trade For a change of 10% IMF approval was not required For a change of more than 10% IMF approval was required.
  • 85. Collapse of Bretton Woods In 1960’s various expansion programme was taken by US and it had to face a trade deficit because of the expansion. Member countries lost confidence on USD and started to convert USD into Gold As a result Gold reserves in US treasury began to fall and in August 1971, US suspended convertibility of USD to Gold. In Dec 1971, Smithsonian Agreement fixed up at $38 per ounce with +/- 2.5%
  • 86. Collapse of Bretton Woods In February 1973, $42 per ounce with +/- 2.5% By March, 1973 the Bretton Woods System had collapsed. Countries were then free to choose any exchange arrangement for their currency, except pegging its value to the price of gold. Then paper currencies standard which is neither linked to gold or US-dollar or any other foreign currencies and they have adopted the currency system which is “flexible exchange rate system in 1976.
  • 87. 1.7 International Monetary System, Gold Standard, The Bretton Woods System • Analyse the impact of Bretton woods system referring to research papers using EBSCO and submit the analysis in google classroom

Editor's Notes

  1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsDwMGH5E8U
  2. https://youtu.be/Y4t1oxxF1FE https://youtu.be/TY3F73vHbuU https://youtu.be/C_xAAqLjLuw https://prezi.com/dashboard/next/#/presentations
  3. SDR- Special Drawing Right Forex reserves -As on May 29,2020 – 493.48 Billion Dollars = Rs. 37.30 Lacs crore.
  4. EME- Emerging Market Econmies
  5. These dealers are also known as “market maker”. As market makers, these dealers stand willing at all time to buy and sell currencies at the quoted rate. Brokers on the other hand, help clients to get a better rate on the currency trade by making available different quotes offered by dealers. Traders can compare rates and accordingly take a decision. Brokers charge a commission for providing these services. Hedgers use the foreign currency market to hedge the risk associated with volatility in foreign exchange market. Speculators are traders who essentially buy and sell foreign currency to make profit from the expected futures movement of the currency. These traders do not have any genuine requirement for trading foreign currency.. Arbitrageurs buy and sell the same currency at two different markets whenever there is price discrepancy Central banks play very important role in foreign exchange market. However, these banks do not undertake significant volume of trading.  Each central bank has official/unofficial target of the forex rate for its home currency. If the actual price deviates from the target rate, the central banks intervene in the market to set a tone. 
  6. USD/INR = 1 / 75.88 EUR/USD = 1 / 1.18 Always the quote currency will be displayed in the market
  7. USD/INR = 1 / 75.88 EUR/USD = 1 / 1.18 Always the quote currency will be displayed in the market
  8. USD/INR = 1 / 75.88 EUR/USD = 1 / 1.18 Always the quote currency will be displayed in the market
  9. Most of the interbank quotations are in European terms except four currencies. For Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Euro and Pound Sterling, interbank transactions are in the from of American Terms. Most banks quote price of USD per one unit Pound Sterling or USD per unit of Euro/ AUD/ NZD. Reason -- a piece of history is associated with this exception! Pound Sterling consisted of 20 shillings and with 12 pence of each Shilling, While USD followed a decimal system with one hundred pennies in a USD.  This lead to difficulties in quoting a non-decimal currency with a decimal based currency. Hence, for reasons of convenience, banks started quoting USD price per one unit of Pound Sterling. This practice continues till date even though Pound Sterling changed to decimals in 1971. But what about Euro/AUD/NZD!!! Readers have to find out the common thread!!
  10. If trade happens on Monday(Contract Date) = Settlement will happen on Wednesday (Spot Date) •Exchange Rate = Rate that prevails on Monday (Spot Rate) •Ex.-If London Bank sells Yen against Dollars to Paris Bank on Monday then Settlement Date: Wednesday
  11. The following example highlights this aspect.  On Day 1, an Indian importer had entered into a forward contract with a bank to buy USD after 3 months.  However, after 15 days of  entering the forward contract, the importer wants to shorten the contract duration as it has to prepay USD to the US company for some reason.  The importer asks the bank to predeliver the contract.  The bank may quote an amended forward rate. If the exporter agrees with the new rate, then the old contract is cancelled and some fee charged.Similarly forward contract maturity date can be extended. If an importer wants to extend the maturity date, the bank still fulfills the commitment and delivers the USD to the importer and receives INR for the extended date. Banks charge an extension margin to the original rate negotiated.  In case, an exporter, (who has entered into a contract to sell USD forward) cannot abide by the contract, he has to buy the foreign currency from the spot market and delivers it to the bank on the maturity date. Both exporter and bank enter into another fresh forward contract for the extended maturity period. Forward contracts can also be cancelled. If the importer/exporter can not use the forward contract, the contract can be cancelled by settling the difference in exchange between the forward contract rate and current day’s spot rate. However, these flexibilities in forward contracts (closing early, extension and cancellation) may vary form bank to bank and from client to client in a bank. These options are exceptions rather than norms.
  12. How currency forward trans US exporter is going to receive 10million EUR after 3 months. Conversion of EUR into USD involves some exchange rate risk. In order to avoid the risk he enters into a forward contract to exchange 1EUR for 1.2USD This means he will exchange 10 million euros for 12 million dollars after three months for which he enters into contract at present. If he has not entered a forward contract and after 3 months if USD has become 1.1USD for 1euro then he will get only 11million which would be a loss. To avoid this he may enter into a forward contract action works
  13. How currency forward trans US exporter is going to receive 10million EUR after 3 months. Conversion of EUR into USD involves some exchange rate risk. In order to avoid the risk he enters into a forward contract to exchange 1EUR for 1.2USD This means he will exchange 10 million euros for 12 million dollars after three months for which he enters into contract at present. If he has not entered a forward contract and after 3 months if USD has become 1.1USD for 1euro then he will get only 11million which would be a loss. To avoid this he may enter into a forward contract action works
  14. Realtive gold standard came into existence because of the availability of the gold was scarce.
  15. Money Supply increases = Inflation Money Supply decreses =Deflation
  16. Realtive gold standard came into existence because of the availability of the gold was scarce.
  17. Realtive gold standard came into existence because of the availability of the gold was scarce.
  18. Under this agreement, the gold price was fixed at USD 35 per ounce and the United States promised to exchange dollars for gold at this price. On the other hand, other countries pledged to exchange their currencies for dollars at fixed exchange rate. All participants in this exchange rate system were obliged to maintain their currencies within one percent of par value. This could happen either by buying or selling of dollar or gold to maintain exchange rate. It was the responsibility of U.S. to have price stability.