Paper by Katharina Esau, Axel Bruns, Tariq Choucair, Samantha Vilkins, and Laura Vodden, presented at ANZCA 2023, Wellington 21-24 Nov. 2023.

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Voices on the Voice Referendum: A Computational
Analysis of News and Audience Polarisation within the
Australian Media Landscape
Katharina Esau, Axel Bruns, Tariq Choucair, Samantha Vilkins, and Laura Vodden
Digital Media Research Centre
Queensland University of Technology
Brisbane, Australia
katharina.esau | a.bruns | tariq.choucair | samantha.vilkins | laura.vodden@qut.edu.au
@snurb_dot_info | @snurb@aoir.social | @snurb.bsky.social
(… eventually)

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Image: Midjourney
Polarisation

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Project Context
• Australian Laureate Fellowship (2022-27)
• Determining the Drivers and Dynamics of Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public
Debate
• Digital Media Research Centre, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
• 4 postdocs, 4 + 4* PhD students, 1 data scientist
• Cross-national comparisons (intended: AU, US, UK, DE, DK, CH, probably + BR, PE, CA)
• Longitudinal analysis over the course of the project
* Starting in 2024 – interested? Get in touch! (a.bruns@qut.edu.au)

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Polarisation and the Voice Referendum
• Referenda are polarising by design:
• Issue polarisation, potentially overlaid with ideological and affective polarisation
• News coverage may reflect and/or deepen this:
• Outlets’ explicit stances and/or implicit framing
• Possibly leading to perceived polarisation that is greater than actual polarisation
• Social media debate models and potentially amplifies this:
• Interactive and interpretive polarisation, and often affective
• Potentially unfolding differently depending on platforms’ communities and affordances
• All of this underpinned by underlying perceptions of polarisation in Australia:
• Not just views on the issue, but views on other people’s views on the issue

6. (https://theconversation.com/new-polling-shows-no-voters-more-likely-to-see-australia-as-already-divided-214713)

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Image: Midjourney
Polarisation and the Voice

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Research Aims and Design
• Coverage polarisation:
• Systematic analysis of news articles’ framing and stance towards the Voice
• Including choices to cite stakeholders and their viewpoints
• Computational analysis:
• LLM-supported identification and evaluation of speakers, viewpoints, and overall framing
• Verified against manually coded subset of articles
• Social media discourse polarisation:
• Structure and activity of networks of public debate on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram
• Sharing of and engagement with news content as part of social media debates
• Alignment between news outlets and social media communities

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But…
• Limitations of available news databases:
• Patchy coverage of mainstream and fringe Australian news outlets in databases
• Very limited (or very costly) availability of news data APIs (e.g. Factiva)
• Rapidly evolving LLM systems for content coding and analysis
• Substantial upheaval in previously stable social media landscape
• So:
• For now, focus on sharing of Voice news content on Facebook and Twitter
• Mapping of social media discourse network structures and their news preferences
• Manual review of most prominent news items emerging from social media data

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89,101 posts
from 9,433 public spaces
Facebook

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Referendum question
announced
Uluru Statement
anniversary
Referendum
bill passed
Referendum
date announced

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13. Sky News Australia /
Flash News
Senator Jacinta Price –
Don’t Divide Us Vote No
The Voice 2023 –
Yes or No
ABC News
The Guardian
(Australia)
Truth and Lies and
Other Liberal Promises
Uluru Statement
Yes 23
Australian Electoral
Commission
The Australian
SBS News
Rebel News
Voice.gov.au
Space-Domain Network
Black/green/grey/red: Facebook pages/groups
Blue: Domains

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Most Shared Stories
Sky News
Peta Credlin exposes Uluru Statement from the Heart’s `true agenda`
‘Never fly this airline again’: Qantas savaged by Aussies over Voice campaign
More bad news for Indigenous Voice to Parliament
Most Indigenous Aussies don`t back Voice, want Treaty: Community leader
Uni professor told students to `reflect deeply` if they oppose Voice
Voice will `take away’ rights for ‘every other citizen’: Peta Credlin
Yes campaign using Uluru as political tool, `deceived` elders claim
‘He crumbles’: PM shows his ‘many personalities’ in fiery 2GB interview
Jacinta Price challenges PM to Voice debate
`It’s a takeover`: Anthony Mundine blasts the Voice
`Appalling conduct`: Yes23 forced to delete post amid Voice vote `confusion`
Linda Burney quizzed on scope of Voice to Parliament
No campaign launches in must-win state ahead of Voice referendum
Support for Voice to Parliament below 50 per cent
Tens of thousands of Indigenous Australians unable to vote on Voice
Albanese won`t legislate Indigenous Voice if referendum fails
Voice could ‘obliterate’ restrictions on federal power, new research warns
‘Don’t mention the Voice’: Host’s advice ahead blockbuster AFL match
Peter Dutton’s latest demand on Voice to Parliament
‘Base racism’: Langton launches fresh attack on Voice critics
`Very dangerous`: Jacinta Price calls out PM’s voice model
Stoker and Kenny clash on Voice to Parliament`s legal implications
New data reveals support for a Voice referendum is falling
‘Almost no one checks’: Claims nearly ‘a third’ of people claiming to be Aboriginal aren’t
Sky News host exposes Labor`s `lie` on the Uluru Statement from the Heart
ABC News
Voice `is not constitutionally risky`, say 71 law professors in open letter to Australian public
Senator Lidia Thorpe quits Greens over divisions on Voice to Parliament
We fact checked some of the claims made by the Yes and No campaigns. Here`s what we found
Tony Abbott advising controversial conservative lobby group Advance Australia
Shadow Attorney-General Julian Leeser quits Liberal frontbench to support Voice to Parliament
Health organisations across the country pledge their support for the Voice to Parliament
We fact checked Tony Abbott on his claim $30b is spent per year by the NIAA. Here`s what we found
There are 11 First Nations MPs and senators. Here`s what they think of a Voice to Parliament
`If not now, when?`: Prime minister reveals Voice to Parliament question Australians will vote on
How white supremacists used an obscure 40-year-old documentary to split the Voice vote
Referendum legislation passes parliament, putting Australia on track for Voice vote
Tell us what you want to know about the Indigenous Voice to Parliament
There`s a lot of talk about a Voice to Parliament. Here`s what it is and who`s for and against it
What is the Voice to Parliament? Your most common questions answered in 150 words or less
Sara Storer - Children Of The Gurindji

15. Sky News Australia
Senator Jacinta Price –
Don’t Divide Us Vote No
The Voice 2023 –
Yes or No
Pauline Hanson’s
Please Explain
The Uluru Statement
from the Heart
Yes 23
ABC News
Pensioners, Veterans and Seniors
Political Discussion Group
We Loathe Dutton
& Murdoch
On-Sharing Network
Black/green/grey/red: Facebook pages/groups

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And YouTube?

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YouTube Channel
Meet the Architect behind the `Voice`... who literally wrote the book Advance Australia
The Voice: Five More Problems | John Anderson John Anderson (Sky News Australia clip)
Aboriginal woman, Kerry White says NO to the Voice to Parliament Pauline Hanson's Please Explain
Secret Communist Plot Behind `Voice To Parliament` Exposed Blacklisted Research
IN FULL: Senator Jacinta Price addresses National Press Club | ABC News ABC News
MGSE Deans Lecture - The Uluru Statement from the Heart and its pedagogic implications University of Melbourne
The ULURU STATEMENT Explained (The Voice) True Arrow
Meet Voice Activist Teela Reid Advance Australia
‘Transfer of power’: Voice has ‘very little’ to do with supporting Indigenous Australians Sky News Australia
The Voice to Parliament: Megan Davis | 10 minute Genius - Ep 6 | ABC Australia ABC Australia
`Why the hell do we need a Voice?’: Anthony Mundine slams Voice to Parliament Sky News Australia
Uluru Statement from the Heart - Reconciliation WA Uluru Statement from the Heart
Final Report of the Referendum Council | Referendum Council Blacklisted Research
The Uluru Statement | Pauline Hanson’s Please Explain Pauline Hanson's Please Explain
You’re the voice that will make history The Uluṟu Dialogue | John Farnham (video unavailable)
Voice to parliament | Debunking common myths and misconceptions | Arrilla Indigenous Consulting Arilla Indigenous Consulting
Sky News host exposes Labor`s `lie` on the Uluru Statement from the Heart Sky News Australia
YES or NO? Everything you need to know about the Indigenous Voice Referendum. | Video Lab | ABC News ABC News in-depth
`Why the hell do we need a Voice?’: Anthony Mundine slams Voice to Parliament Sky News Australia
PM ‘admits’ to not reading beyond cover page of Uluru Statement from the Heart Sky News Australia
IPA forum on the Voice to Parliament in Melbourne – June 2023 Institute of Public Affairs
‘You’ve been misled’: ‘Real agenda’ of the Voice exposed ‘in a brawl’ Sky News Australia
John Farnham`s You’re the Voice song becomes yes referendum campaign ad – watch in full Guardian Australia
Yes campaign launches major advertising blitz | 9 News Australia 9 News Australia
In 1988, prime minister Bob Hawke promised a treaty with Aboriginal people. Why did it fail? Vote No to the Voice

18. The Voice 2023 –
Yes or No
Senator Jacinta
Price
Vote No to the Voice to Parliament,
before We Are All Damned
NO! AUSTRALIA
SAYS NO
Truth and Lies and
Other Liberal Promises
We Loathe Dutton
& Murdoch
Space-YouTube Network
Black/green/grey/red: Facebook pages/groups
Blue: Shared YouTube videos
MURDOCH OWNS OUR
GOVERNMENTS

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(* to the extent we can still study it 😒)
52,255 tweets (mostly excluding retweets)
from 18,069 public accounts
Twitter*

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• Caveats for NodeXL-scraped data:
• Substantial increase in data volume from 1 Oct.
• Substantial increase in engagement information from 1 Oct.
(especially for retweets)
• Scraping does not cover retweets as distinct tweets
(therefore unable to map retweet network)
• Some overgathering of tweets by accounts with key terms
in their descriptions rather than in tweets themselves
• Stance detection: uses only voteyes ↔ uses only voteno

21. ABC News
Yes 23
The Project
Rove McManus
Anthony
Albanese
Linda Burney The Australian
Sky News
Australia
Pauline
Hanson
Nyunggai
Warren
Mundine
Uluru
Statement
Crikey
Jacinta
Nampijinpa
Price
Mentions Network
Black/green/grey/red: Twitter accounts

22. ABC News
The Guardian
Yes23
Sky News
Australia
YouTube
Bit.ly
The Australian
Uluru Statement
news.com.au
Black/green/grey/red: Twitter accounts
Blue: Shared domains
Account-Domain Network

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Content Sharing

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Note: log-log scales
Sky News
Australia

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The Guardian
The Vote No Pamphlet Referendum Voice To Parliament Voting Essay Aec Published Read In Full Annotated Fact Checked
The Vote Yes Pamphlet Referendum Voice To Parliament Voting Essay Aec Published Read In Full Annotated Fact Checked
Meta Vows To Crack Down On Abuse And Misinformation Around Voice To Parliament Referendum
Prominent Liberals Campaign For A Yes Vote In Voice To Parliament Referendum Video
Leading Australian Social Justice Bodies Unite To Back Indigenous Voice To Parliament Referendum
State And Territory Leaders To Sign Joint Statement Backing Indigenous Voice To Parliament
Chris Minns Open To A Nsw Voice To Parliament Regardless Of Federal Referendum Outcome
Warren Mundines Daughter Says His Opposition To Voice Not Morally Right
Indigenous Voice Crucial To Treaty Uluru Statement Co Author Megan Davis Says
Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum Global Explainer
Indigenous Voice To Parliament Referendum Tracker How Many People Support Or Oppose
Australias Indigenous Voice To Parliament Referendum Explained In 30 Seconds
Indigenous Voice To Parliament Referendum Most Important Vote Since Federation Noel Pearson Says
Indigenous Voice To Parliament Referendum Question Australia Constitution Change Pm Anthony Albanese
Pm State And Territory Leaders Formally Back Indigenous Voice To Parliament With Statement Of Intent
ABC News
Voice To Parliament Misinformation Elon Musk X
Megan Krakouer Voice Activist Changes Mind On Voting No
Voice To Parliament Referendum Question Constitutional Announced
Bill To Trigger Voice Referendum Introduced To Parliament
Prominent Indigenous Campaigners Against Voice To Parliament
Voice To Parliament Referendum Bill Passes The Lower House
Voice To Parliament Misinformation Flyers
Voice To Parliament Referendum Australians Could Miss Voting
Senate Voice Vote Referendum
Sa Yes Campaign Referendum March
Indigneous Voice Referendum Opposition Peter Dutton
Voice To Parliament Referendum Committee Inquiry
Noel Pearson Says Dutton Betrayed Country In Rejecting Voice
Indigenous Voice To Parliament Multicultural Vote Referendum
Young Voters And The Voice
Sky News Australia
Voice Polling Shows Support Dwindling
Credlin Editorial Pdf 2.Pdf
Sky News Host Peta Credlin Exposes Labors Lie On The Uluru Statement From The Heart Under Freedom Of Information Act
Its Got To Be Love And Friendship Noel Pearson Urges Supporters Of The Voice To Parliament To Be Civil
Yes23 Campaign Deletes Tweet Suggesting No Voters Could Put A Cross On Voice To Parliament Ballot After Aec Flagged It
Would Not Be Counted As A Formal Vote
Quite Astounding Peter Dutton Slams Yes Campaign Materials As The Pm Calls On Voters To Do Their Research Before The
Voice To Parliament Referendum
Voice Failing At Upcoming Referendum Will Be A Reflection Of Albanese Governments Political Hubris Frank Brennan
Peta Credlin Explains 26page Uluru Statement Yes Campaign Doesnt Want Aussies To See
Indigenous Voice To Parliament Legislation Passes Lower House With Huge Majority In Favour Of Referendum Going Ahead
Base Racism Professor Marcia Langtons Criticism Of Indigenous Voice To Parliament Opponents Amid Dire New Polling
Albanese Government Just Want To Force The Voice To Parliament Through
Yes23 Use Of John Farnham Song Causes More Ridicule Of Voice
When The Voice To Parliament Referendum Will Be Held Pm Gives Update On Timeframe As He Responds To Lack Of Detail
Criticism
Watch Live Anthony Albanese Officially Launches Voice To Parliament Campaign In Adelaide As He Reveals Referendum Date
Voice To Parliament Yes Campaign Floods Social Media With Ads Outspending No Camp By More Than 600 Per Cent

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First Observations

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Early Impressions from the Analysis
• Asymmetrical contest:
• Strong role of party-political alignment
• Issue polarisation subsumed into ideological (and affective) polarisation
• Expressed in social media contexts as interactive polarisation
• No campaign substantially more centralised
• Very clear position of leadership for Sky News Australia – no Yes campaign counterpart
• Right and far-right media very clearly supporting No agenda and talking-points
• Clear attempts to deepen affective polarisation
• Yes campaign splintered and relying on grassroots activism without strong leadership
• Centre and centre-left media more focussed on fact-checking than campaigning
• Substantially more engagement with No-leaning content
• Obvious interpretive polarisation
• Significant role for YouTube content, especially on Facebook

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Further Outlook
• Role of news coverage:
• Comprehensive mixed-methods analysis of Voice referendum news articles
• Particular focus on framing, viewpoint and standpoint detection, affective language
• Further correlation of news content attributes with social media activity patterns
• Need to consider impact of video content, especially on Facebook
• Extension to other platforms where feasible (e.g. Instagram, Telegram, …)
• Comparison with post-referendum patterns
• Assessment of patterns as polarisation:
• What types of polarisation are present here, and to what extent?
• Do these patterns reach the threshold for destructive polarisation (Esau et al. 2023)?

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Thank you!

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This research was supported by the ARC Laureate Fellowship project Determining the Dynamics of
Partisanship and Polarisation in Online Public Debate.
Acknowledgments