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Scenario Planning: A
Methodology for Analyzing
Sensemaking and Change
       Processes
  Riley, P., Li, Z., Evans, S.K.,
     Weiss, E., & Noyes, A.
M




                      Energy

Source:	
  The	
  Shell	
  Global	
  Scenarios	
  to	
  2025	
  
M
Politics




               Diagram	
  Source:	
  	
  	
  
               “The	
  Mont	
  Fleur	
  
               Scenarios”,	
  	
  Deeper	
  
               News/Global	
  
               Business	
  Network	
  
Source:	
  Evoke	
  
website,	
  World	
  Bank	
  
InsItute	
  
Theory and Research
•  Narratives and discourse
•  Sensemaking
•  Collaboration
•  New technology
  •  New business models
  •  New publics and new relationships
  •  Social networks
M
Sources:	
  USC	
  Civic	
  Paths,	
  Cool	
  California,	
  hNp://www.flickr.com/photos/superkimbo/3121817819/	
  
Our Process: Pre-Workshop
•  Determine workshop type
•  Interviews with select participants
•  Brainstorm key trends that affect your
   organization
•  Design and disseminate the scenario topics
   with instructions and due dates
•  Have participants post their scenarios
Our Process: Workshop
•  Analysis prior to workshop
   –    Themes
   –    Discourse analysis
   –    Cognitive maps, mental models
   –    Foresight assessment
   –    Strategic implications
   –    Creativity, innovation
   –    Semantic network analysis
   –    Survey/network data analysis
•  Affirmation process in groups
   –  Settle on a set of plausible scenarios (aggregate up)
   –  Storyboard session (debrief)
   –  Continue to update website
Summary	
  of	
  Scenario	
  Themes	
  Including	
  Func6onal	
  
              Ac6vi6es	
  (mul6ple	
  codes)	
  	
  
Advice	
  Network	
  of	
  Entertainment	
  Division.	
  Node	
  color	
  is	
  Newman-­‐Girvan	
  
clustering.	
  Node	
  shape	
  is	
  department.	
  
Results
•  Reporting and storytelling skills are critical
•  Short-term approach  blind spots
•  Building civic engagement through participatory
   story-telling requires engaging with long-term news
   issues
•  Set date far enough in the future
•  Online scenarios open to all participants
•  Balance conservative and far-reaching thinkers
•  Manage the workshops like focus groups
•  Be observant – people will change their
   perspectives
•  Positivity inside their own organizations; pessimism
   in larger institutions or networks
Thanks!
http://uscscenariolab.com/
Additional slides…
Example Scenario Prompt
•  World Bank Communication and Governance
   Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:
 “SCENARIO PROMPT 3: VISIONARY
  It is the year 2021, and your country has become known
  around the world as the most remarkably successful model
  of Information Society development (through internet,
  mobile and social media technologies) over the last decade.
  Your country has been much more effective and innovative
  in developing political and economic communication and
  information rights, as interpreted in your national context,
  than the your organization thought possible in 2011. In
  fact, your country and your organization have been so
  successful that you are now seen as one of the primary
  visionary models for other countries around the world to
  follow as they continue to develop as Information
  Societies.”
Example Participant
           Scenario
•  World Bank Communication and Governance
   Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt:
 "Moreover, the public discussions on corruption started
 having an accurate approach which increased significantly
 the awareness of the public opinion of the impact the
 corruption has over the whole society. The manipulative
 messages carried out by the media owned by the politically
 related businessmen have lost their power to influence the
 audience. Hence, a broader debate stirred by the civil
 society and supported by the social media had increased
 knowledge and encouraged the common citizens to disclose
 corruption cases.” – Participant (Romanian official)

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ICA Scenario Lab Presentation 2012

  • 1. Scenario Planning: A Methodology for Analyzing Sensemaking and Change Processes Riley, P., Li, Z., Evans, S.K., Weiss, E., & Noyes, A.
  • 2. M Energy Source:  The  Shell  Global  Scenarios  to  2025  
  • 3. M Politics Diagram  Source:       “The  Mont  Fleur   Scenarios”,    Deeper   News/Global   Business  Network  
  • 4. Source:  Evoke   website,  World  Bank   InsItute  
  • 5. Theory and Research •  Narratives and discourse •  Sensemaking •  Collaboration •  New technology •  New business models •  New publics and new relationships •  Social networks
  • 6. M
  • 7. Sources:  USC  Civic  Paths,  Cool  California,  hNp://www.flickr.com/photos/superkimbo/3121817819/  
  • 8. Our Process: Pre-Workshop •  Determine workshop type •  Interviews with select participants •  Brainstorm key trends that affect your organization •  Design and disseminate the scenario topics with instructions and due dates •  Have participants post their scenarios
  • 9. Our Process: Workshop •  Analysis prior to workshop –  Themes –  Discourse analysis –  Cognitive maps, mental models –  Foresight assessment –  Strategic implications –  Creativity, innovation –  Semantic network analysis –  Survey/network data analysis •  Affirmation process in groups –  Settle on a set of plausible scenarios (aggregate up) –  Storyboard session (debrief) –  Continue to update website
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. Summary  of  Scenario  Themes  Including  Func6onal   Ac6vi6es  (mul6ple  codes)    
  • 13. Advice  Network  of  Entertainment  Division.  Node  color  is  Newman-­‐Girvan   clustering.  Node  shape  is  department.  
  • 14.
  • 15. Results •  Reporting and storytelling skills are critical •  Short-term approach  blind spots •  Building civic engagement through participatory story-telling requires engaging with long-term news issues •  Set date far enough in the future •  Online scenarios open to all participants •  Balance conservative and far-reaching thinkers •  Manage the workshops like focus groups •  Be observant – people will change their perspectives •  Positivity inside their own organizations; pessimism in larger institutions or networks
  • 18.
  • 19. Example Scenario Prompt •  World Bank Communication and Governance Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt: “SCENARIO PROMPT 3: VISIONARY It is the year 2021, and your country has become known around the world as the most remarkably successful model of Information Society development (through internet, mobile and social media technologies) over the last decade. Your country has been much more effective and innovative in developing political and economic communication and information rights, as interpreted in your national context, than the your organization thought possible in 2011. In fact, your country and your organization have been so successful that you are now seen as one of the primary visionary models for other countries around the world to follow as they continue to develop as Information Societies.”
  • 20. Example Participant Scenario •  World Bank Communication and Governance Reform Scenario Exercise excerpt: "Moreover, the public discussions on corruption started having an accurate approach which increased significantly the awareness of the public opinion of the impact the corruption has over the whole society. The manipulative messages carried out by the media owned by the politically related businessmen have lost their power to influence the audience. Hence, a broader debate stirred by the civil society and supported by the social media had increased knowledge and encouraged the common citizens to disclose corruption cases.” – Participant (Romanian official)