- The S&P 500 index dropped below a key level of 1,091, signaling the potential start of a new bear market, but a late rally prevented this.
- The rally was prompted by an FT story about plans from EU finance ministers to recapitalize banks, reassuring markets about efforts to help the eurozone.
- This reinforced the idea that macro issues like the sovereign debt crisis, rather than company news, are significantly influencing stock markets and causing major up and down moves based on headlines.
Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent financial advisory firm located in West Deptford, New Jersey. The firm provides comprehensive financial planning services to individuals, families, and professionals. In this issue: the economy and markets are mild with modest gains; the biggest financial concerns for clients are healthcare costs, taxes, and protecting assets; the benefits of diversification are highlighted; and updates are provided on staff, community involvement, awards, and office expansion.
The document discusses the threats facing American workers in the current economy, including high unemployment, declining pensions and social security, job insecurity, and lack of good healthcare benefits. It argues that the traditional career path no longer guarantees financial security and that people need to consider alternative options like business ownership or franchising to take control of their own destinies. Finally, it emphasizes that having a support team through coaching or partnerships is important for success in pursuing alternatives to traditional employment.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's changing job market and economy. It summarizes that traditional jobs and career paths no longer guarantee financial security, and unemployment is expected to rise significantly. It encourages exploring alternative career options like business ownership and franchising to take control of one's future and protect one's family.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's economy. It notes rising unemployment, declining pensions and benefits, increased job insecurity, and other threats to financial stability. It argues that traditional jobs and careers may no longer provide the stability and income needed to achieve financial goals. The document suggests exploring alternative career options like business ownership and franchising, which can provide more control and flexibility through team support systems.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's economy. It summarizes that traditional jobs and career paths no longer guarantee financial security or meeting one's goals. It recommends exploring alternative options like owning a business or franchising, which provide more control over one's future and the support of a team. Franchising in particular manages risk while being supported by a proven system and business coaching. Readers are encouraged to learn more about protecting themselves and their families.
The document discusses the threats facing American workers and their families' financial security in the current economy. It outlines issues like rising unemployment, declining pensions and healthcare benefits, the uncertain future of Social Security, and the instability of traditional jobs. It argues that people can no longer rely on jobs or the government and must take control of their own destinies by exploring self-employment and business ownership options, possibly through franchising which provides support. Overall the document encourages attendees to seriously consider their career and financial options to protect their futures.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
The document provides career advice and tips on various topics such as networking, resume writing, interviewing, maintaining a positive attitude, and lifelong learning. It encourages developing new skills, helping others, maintaining contacts, dressing professionally, having an elevator pitch ready, and focusing career efforts on areas of value and relevance. Brief sections also discuss current economic conditions, social media usage, and maintaining an optimistic outlook during job searches.
Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent financial advisory firm located in West Deptford, New Jersey. The firm provides comprehensive financial planning services to individuals, families, and professionals. In this issue: the economy and markets are mild with modest gains; the biggest financial concerns for clients are healthcare costs, taxes, and protecting assets; the benefits of diversification are highlighted; and updates are provided on staff, community involvement, awards, and office expansion.
The document discusses the threats facing American workers in the current economy, including high unemployment, declining pensions and social security, job insecurity, and lack of good healthcare benefits. It argues that the traditional career path no longer guarantees financial security and that people need to consider alternative options like business ownership or franchising to take control of their own destinies. Finally, it emphasizes that having a support team through coaching or partnerships is important for success in pursuing alternatives to traditional employment.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's changing job market and economy. It summarizes that traditional jobs and career paths no longer guarantee financial security, and unemployment is expected to rise significantly. It encourages exploring alternative career options like business ownership and franchising to take control of one's future and protect one's family.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's economy. It notes rising unemployment, declining pensions and benefits, increased job insecurity, and other threats to financial stability. It argues that traditional jobs and careers may no longer provide the stability and income needed to achieve financial goals. The document suggests exploring alternative career options like business ownership and franchising, which can provide more control and flexibility through team support systems.
The document discusses the challenges facing American workers in today's economy. It summarizes that traditional jobs and career paths no longer guarantee financial security or meeting one's goals. It recommends exploring alternative options like owning a business or franchising, which provide more control over one's future and the support of a team. Franchising in particular manages risk while being supported by a proven system and business coaching. Readers are encouraged to learn more about protecting themselves and their families.
The document discusses the threats facing American workers and their families' financial security in the current economy. It outlines issues like rising unemployment, declining pensions and healthcare benefits, the uncertain future of Social Security, and the instability of traditional jobs. It argues that people can no longer rely on jobs or the government and must take control of their own destinies by exploring self-employment and business ownership options, possibly through franchising which provides support. Overall the document encourages attendees to seriously consider their career and financial options to protect their futures.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
The document provides career advice and tips on various topics such as networking, resume writing, interviewing, maintaining a positive attitude, and lifelong learning. It encourages developing new skills, helping others, maintaining contacts, dressing professionally, having an elevator pitch ready, and focusing career efforts on areas of value and relevance. Brief sections also discuss current economic conditions, social media usage, and maintaining an optimistic outlook during job searches.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
The document discusses the effects of a strong US dollar on the US economy. It notes that while a strong dollar benefits consumers through lower import prices and inflation, it hurts US-based multinational corporations as their foreign profits are worth less when converted to dollars. It also negatively impacts US manufacturers and exporters as their goods become more expensive overseas, which could weigh on US economic growth given manufacturing's large GDP contribution. Overall, the strong dollar presents challenges and opportunities for different sectors of the US economy.
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
The portfolio manager reviewed his top trade ideas from 2008-2009. His best performing long trade was China Mengniu Dairy, which rose 190 percentage points after a milk scandal. His favorite trade, Korea Exchange Bank, was a loser rising only 1% as a legal dispute dragged on. For 2008, his four high conviction winners included Mengniu while his losers were energy sector shorts. In 2009, four of six high conviction calls were longs that collectively outperformed the index by 662 percentage points, while retail sector shorts lost money. The analysis found bottom-up stock ideas performed best while top-down thematic calls generally underperformed. Going forward, the portfolio manager intends to provide more fundamental bottom-up ideas than
This document discusses the resurgence of US manufacturing and its implications. It notes that US exports have grown faster than GDP since 2005 as US manufacturing costs have become competitive versus other nations due to cheaper labor, energy, electricity, and shipping. Bringing manufacturing back to the US could create millions of new jobs and lower unemployment, fueling consumer spending and stronger economic growth. The rise in US exports is expected to continue, benefiting the economy and supporting the bull market thesis for equities.
Michael Durante Western Reserve 2009 review and 2010 outlookMichael Durante
- The document provides an annual review and outlook from 2009 to 2010 for a financial services fund.
- It summarizes that the financial crisis created significant investment opportunities due to delays in government action and uncertainty, but that credit losses were not as severe as feared.
- It argues that mark-to-market accounting exaggerated fear and losses during the crisis, but that bank fundamentals have significantly improved along with credit performance, leaving financial stocks still undervalued.
Life After The Pink Slip The New Career Economy Lcmoore1973
The document discusses the challenges of the current job market and "New Career Economy", including high unemployment, lack of job security, and need to change careers regularly. It promotes exploring options like franchising, entrepreneurship, and partnering with a business coach in order to take control of one's financial future and career in an uncertain economy. Recessions may provide opportunities to start successful new businesses and careers.
The document discusses right-sizing the U.S. venture capital industry. It argues that the industry is currently too large given poor returns in recent years. The size of the industry grew rapidly in the late 1990s, but performance has stagnated since. Returns have failed to exceed public market indices over 5 and 10 year periods. Additionally, the core information technology sector that drove past success is now mature with lower capital needs. For the industry to improve returns, its size likely needs to shrink through reduced commitments from limited partners.
- The fund rose 3.9% in September vs. 3.1% for the S&P 500. For the quarter, it declined 2.3% and is up 6.3% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 which is up 5.2% and 19.8%, respectively.
- The manager held too much cash (20-40%) and not enough long exposure, aiming to be conservatively positioned. However, this was too conservative given the substantial short position and proved costly as the market rose strongly.
- Going forward, the manager will aim to maintain the target exposures of 100% long and 30% short, occasionally holding more cash/increasing the
The fund manager provides an update on the fund's performance in the third quarter and year to date. While the fund outperformed the S&P 500 in September, it underperformed for the quarter and year due to headwinds from cash holdings and short positions. The manager discusses lessons learned about maintaining target exposures and plans to increase long and short exposures going forward. He also plans to cast a wider net by potentially investing in foreign companies, such as recently establishing a position in Hyundai Motors preferred stock trading at a steep discount. While shorting has been painful, he believes the environment remains attractive for short sellers and plans adjustments to the short strategy including smaller position sizes and better matching long/short exposures.
The document discusses three tech companies from the late 1990s - theglobe.com, Pets.com, and eToys - that experienced strong growth and valuations but ultimately failed or declared bankruptcy. It draws a parallel to recent social media company LinkedIn's large first day stock increase and notes investors should pay attention to lessons from the past to avoid making irrational investment decisions.
Deloitte Report "Global Powers of Retail 2013"Oliver Grave
This document provides an economic outlook for global retailers in 2013. It discusses the challenges facing Western Europe due to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis and recession in many countries. It notes that a failure to further integrate the Eurozone economically and politically could lead to more sovereign defaults and a deeper recession. The document also summarizes the economic situation and outlook in China and the United States. For China, it describes the government's stimulus efforts to counter slowing growth and discusses longer-term challenges. For the US, it expects the economy to avoid falling off the "fiscal cliff" and to see modestly faster growth in 2013, supported by an improving housing market and consumer spending.
Bill Stankiewicz Cscmp 1 14 2009 T Albrecht PresBillStankiewicz
The document summarizes freight demand and supply trends in the trucking industry in 2009. It finds that domestic demand will remain weak due to issues in housing, consumer spending, and commercial construction. International demand is also declining. While trucking capacity growth was moderate, excess capacity exists due to the economic downturn. Rates are expected to drop further in early 2009 before a supply correction occurs. The recovery will be gradual and dependent on the broader economic recovery.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The document discusses the need for ICT corporations to shift their focus from financial systems to economics in light of global economic shifts. It notes the job losses in the ICT sector, especially at Microsoft, and argues economics should guide business decisions more than politics. The US economy is analyzed and found to have significant debt issues, calling into question its status as sole world leader. The document advocates for ICT companies like Microsoft to assess local markets, focus on the bottom two thirds of consumers, and develop strategies guided by economic principles rather than just maintaining the same approaches.
The basic message from the study is that when the market has declined in the months of January and February, the rest of the year has been choppy and volatile.
Economic and Business Commentary By Sean Lannan 9-3-10seantl
The document provides commentary on economics, markets and politics to aid business leaders' decision making. It summarizes that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum as stimulus spending declines. While corporate profits have rebounded, future growth depends on increased business spending and investment given high unemployment. Uncertainty around taxes, spending and interest rates is making executives cautious.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
The document summarizes the upcoming Process Excellence Week conference taking place in January 2012 in Orlando, Florida. The conference will bring together process leaders from various industries to share best practices and strategies for driving process centricity within organizations. Key events at the conference include workshops, presentations from industry leaders, an exclusive site visit to Bausch & Lomb, networking opportunities, and the Process Excellence Awards ceremony. The goal of the conference is to help process professionals unite across different approaches and collaborate to inspire the community towards the next generation of process excellence.
The weekly commentary discusses the recent performance of the stock market and economy. It notes that Apple's strong earnings helped the S&P 500 gain 1.8% despite disappointing economic data from the US, Spain, and UK. The housing market continues to struggle with home prices at their lowest point since 2002, but sales have increased recently due to declining inventory levels. Overall the economy is growing modestly but not enough to indicate a clear direction.
This document outlines an intensive 6-week real estate training program called Six Weeks to Greatness. It provides information about the trainer, Rich Williams, and his qualifications. It then discusses the 8 Pillars training methodology which focuses on business planning, lead generation, scripts/dialogues, objection handling, property types like FSBO and expired listings, keeping motivated buyers and sellers, and sustainability. The document outlines the class schedule, rules, grading system based on appointments, listings and sales. It emphasizes commitment and includes forms for students to track their weekly and cumulative performance metrics and a student commitment form.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
The document discusses the effects of a strong US dollar on the US economy. It notes that while a strong dollar benefits consumers through lower import prices and inflation, it hurts US-based multinational corporations as their foreign profits are worth less when converted to dollars. It also negatively impacts US manufacturers and exporters as their goods become more expensive overseas, which could weigh on US economic growth given manufacturing's large GDP contribution. Overall, the strong dollar presents challenges and opportunities for different sectors of the US economy.
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
The portfolio manager reviewed his top trade ideas from 2008-2009. His best performing long trade was China Mengniu Dairy, which rose 190 percentage points after a milk scandal. His favorite trade, Korea Exchange Bank, was a loser rising only 1% as a legal dispute dragged on. For 2008, his four high conviction winners included Mengniu while his losers were energy sector shorts. In 2009, four of six high conviction calls were longs that collectively outperformed the index by 662 percentage points, while retail sector shorts lost money. The analysis found bottom-up stock ideas performed best while top-down thematic calls generally underperformed. Going forward, the portfolio manager intends to provide more fundamental bottom-up ideas than
This document discusses the resurgence of US manufacturing and its implications. It notes that US exports have grown faster than GDP since 2005 as US manufacturing costs have become competitive versus other nations due to cheaper labor, energy, electricity, and shipping. Bringing manufacturing back to the US could create millions of new jobs and lower unemployment, fueling consumer spending and stronger economic growth. The rise in US exports is expected to continue, benefiting the economy and supporting the bull market thesis for equities.
Michael Durante Western Reserve 2009 review and 2010 outlookMichael Durante
- The document provides an annual review and outlook from 2009 to 2010 for a financial services fund.
- It summarizes that the financial crisis created significant investment opportunities due to delays in government action and uncertainty, but that credit losses were not as severe as feared.
- It argues that mark-to-market accounting exaggerated fear and losses during the crisis, but that bank fundamentals have significantly improved along with credit performance, leaving financial stocks still undervalued.
Life After The Pink Slip The New Career Economy Lcmoore1973
The document discusses the challenges of the current job market and "New Career Economy", including high unemployment, lack of job security, and need to change careers regularly. It promotes exploring options like franchising, entrepreneurship, and partnering with a business coach in order to take control of one's financial future and career in an uncertain economy. Recessions may provide opportunities to start successful new businesses and careers.
The document discusses right-sizing the U.S. venture capital industry. It argues that the industry is currently too large given poor returns in recent years. The size of the industry grew rapidly in the late 1990s, but performance has stagnated since. Returns have failed to exceed public market indices over 5 and 10 year periods. Additionally, the core information technology sector that drove past success is now mature with lower capital needs. For the industry to improve returns, its size likely needs to shrink through reduced commitments from limited partners.
- The fund rose 3.9% in September vs. 3.1% for the S&P 500. For the quarter, it declined 2.3% and is up 6.3% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 which is up 5.2% and 19.8%, respectively.
- The manager held too much cash (20-40%) and not enough long exposure, aiming to be conservatively positioned. However, this was too conservative given the substantial short position and proved costly as the market rose strongly.
- Going forward, the manager will aim to maintain the target exposures of 100% long and 30% short, occasionally holding more cash/increasing the
The fund manager provides an update on the fund's performance in the third quarter and year to date. While the fund outperformed the S&P 500 in September, it underperformed for the quarter and year due to headwinds from cash holdings and short positions. The manager discusses lessons learned about maintaining target exposures and plans to increase long and short exposures going forward. He also plans to cast a wider net by potentially investing in foreign companies, such as recently establishing a position in Hyundai Motors preferred stock trading at a steep discount. While shorting has been painful, he believes the environment remains attractive for short sellers and plans adjustments to the short strategy including smaller position sizes and better matching long/short exposures.
The document discusses three tech companies from the late 1990s - theglobe.com, Pets.com, and eToys - that experienced strong growth and valuations but ultimately failed or declared bankruptcy. It draws a parallel to recent social media company LinkedIn's large first day stock increase and notes investors should pay attention to lessons from the past to avoid making irrational investment decisions.
Deloitte Report "Global Powers of Retail 2013"Oliver Grave
This document provides an economic outlook for global retailers in 2013. It discusses the challenges facing Western Europe due to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis and recession in many countries. It notes that a failure to further integrate the Eurozone economically and politically could lead to more sovereign defaults and a deeper recession. The document also summarizes the economic situation and outlook in China and the United States. For China, it describes the government's stimulus efforts to counter slowing growth and discusses longer-term challenges. For the US, it expects the economy to avoid falling off the "fiscal cliff" and to see modestly faster growth in 2013, supported by an improving housing market and consumer spending.
Bill Stankiewicz Cscmp 1 14 2009 T Albrecht PresBillStankiewicz
The document summarizes freight demand and supply trends in the trucking industry in 2009. It finds that domestic demand will remain weak due to issues in housing, consumer spending, and commercial construction. International demand is also declining. While trucking capacity growth was moderate, excess capacity exists due to the economic downturn. Rates are expected to drop further in early 2009 before a supply correction occurs. The recovery will be gradual and dependent on the broader economic recovery.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The document discusses the need for ICT corporations to shift their focus from financial systems to economics in light of global economic shifts. It notes the job losses in the ICT sector, especially at Microsoft, and argues economics should guide business decisions more than politics. The US economy is analyzed and found to have significant debt issues, calling into question its status as sole world leader. The document advocates for ICT companies like Microsoft to assess local markets, focus on the bottom two thirds of consumers, and develop strategies guided by economic principles rather than just maintaining the same approaches.
The basic message from the study is that when the market has declined in the months of January and February, the rest of the year has been choppy and volatile.
Economic and Business Commentary By Sean Lannan 9-3-10seantl
The document provides commentary on economics, markets and politics to aid business leaders' decision making. It summarizes that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum as stimulus spending declines. While corporate profits have rebounded, future growth depends on increased business spending and investment given high unemployment. Uncertainty around taxes, spending and interest rates is making executives cautious.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
The document summarizes the upcoming Process Excellence Week conference taking place in January 2012 in Orlando, Florida. The conference will bring together process leaders from various industries to share best practices and strategies for driving process centricity within organizations. Key events at the conference include workshops, presentations from industry leaders, an exclusive site visit to Bausch & Lomb, networking opportunities, and the Process Excellence Awards ceremony. The goal of the conference is to help process professionals unite across different approaches and collaborate to inspire the community towards the next generation of process excellence.
The weekly commentary discusses the recent performance of the stock market and economy. It notes that Apple's strong earnings helped the S&P 500 gain 1.8% despite disappointing economic data from the US, Spain, and UK. The housing market continues to struggle with home prices at their lowest point since 2002, but sales have increased recently due to declining inventory levels. Overall the economy is growing modestly but not enough to indicate a clear direction.
This document outlines an intensive 6-week real estate training program called Six Weeks to Greatness. It provides information about the trainer, Rich Williams, and his qualifications. It then discusses the 8 Pillars training methodology which focuses on business planning, lead generation, scripts/dialogues, objection handling, property types like FSBO and expired listings, keeping motivated buyers and sellers, and sustainability. The document outlines the class schedule, rules, grading system based on appointments, listings and sales. It emphasizes commitment and includes forms for students to track their weekly and cumulative performance metrics and a student commitment form.
How can today’s retailers keep costs low and maximise margins, but at the same time grow market share, find new customer touchpoints and create better customer experiences? It’s a huge challenge – but, as this white paper will show, recent shifts in technology are creating huge opportunities for retailers to achieve these goals.
This document provides an assessment of the situation in Balochistan, Pakistan in early 2011. It summarizes that while the Pakistani army chief announced education and employment initiatives for Balochistan, violence continued to escalate. Civilian deaths increased by 80% from 2009 to 2010, with 347 total deaths. The insurgency remained active across 26 districts, targeting both security forces and civilians. The government focused more on crushing Baloch nationalist rebels than addressing their grievances. Exiled Baloch leaders rejected the government's reconciliation package as inadequate. Overall, violence was unlikely to decrease due to Islamabad's reliance on military force over political solutions.
A review of the acts of public worship foundin Catholic churches during Holy Week, which takes place every year between Palm Sunday and the weekend of Easter Sunday.
Elections in France, Greece, and Germany could impact markets as voters chose candidates favoring changes over austerity. French and Greek voters rejected incumbent parties, bringing political uncertainty. This document discusses the economic issues facing Europe, including recession, high unemployment, and low business confidence. Traders who actively communicated with their network were more successful at "connecting the dots" of information and making profitable trades.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly dated April 23, 2012. It discusses how corporate earnings in the US have overtaken concerns about the European debt crisis as the focus of investors. While most US companies reported better than expected earnings, earnings growth was only 3.7% compared to a year ago. Interest rates increased again in troubled European countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting their debt problems remain. The commentary concludes by noting the interconnection of global markets and how European problems could eventually impact the US.
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered, unlike previous recessions where recovery took 2-3 years. Reasons for the slow recovery include financial crisis-related slowdowns, policy uncertainty, extended unemployment benefits, and euro crisis uncertainty. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually spark new hiring if companies begin spending on growth.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
Volatility returned to the markets as the S&P 500 fell 2% for the week due to concerns over the European debt crisis and slowing growth in China. Spain became the latest problem country in Europe, while China's economy expanded at its weakest pace in over three years. Additionally, weak earnings reports from several U.S. banks led to weakness in financial stocks. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. also contributed to uncertainty and market swings. The "quitters" indicator from the JOLTS report provided a positive signal about consumer confidence, despite a disappointing jobs report and decline in consumer sentiment surveys.
The stock market continued rising last week driven by optimism over a Greek bailout and better economic data. However, higher gas prices and tensions in the Middle East could impact consumer spending. In China, slowing housing prices following measures to boost lending have raised concerns. Surveys found Americans view $150,000 in annual income or $1 million in net worth as amounts needed to feel "rich", which has policy implications.
- The US stock market has seen its best start to the year since 1991, with the S&P 500 rising 8.9% so far in 2012. Some analysts attribute this to improving economic data, solid corporate earnings, and a stronger job market.
- However, the S&P 500 would still need to rise about 15% to match its all-time high from 2007. Looking at total returns including dividends, the gap is smaller at just 3.5% below the 2007 peak.
- When measuring the broader stock market using the Wilshire 5000 index, which tracks over 3,700 US stocks, the index reached a new record high last week when accounting for reinvested dividends, marking a
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of 9 eurozone countries including France and Spain. Most eurozone countries now have negative outlooks, indicating a risk of further downgrades. This underscores the ongoing economic problems in Europe. However, the US downgrade had little impact so far, and US investors are more focused on signs of economic momentum in the US than on European issues for now. Nevertheless, if the problems in Europe worsen significantly, it could negatively impact the US economy as well.
The document discusses stock performance in 2011 and analyzes high-dividend stocks from the past. It finds that in 2011, stocks with the highest dividend yields were the only ones to experience positive returns, with gains of 10.4%, 6.4%, and 8.7% respectively. The document also examines "Nifty Fifty" stocks from the 1970s that were seen as guaranteed growth companies but have had varying performance over 40 years, with some like Eastman Kodak struggling in their transition to digital. Key lessons are that some iconic stocks remain so, promoting "one decision" stocks is not a sound strategy, and all stocks can decline to zero.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will do what is needed to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline from European political leaders.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will take aggressive actions to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline policies from European political leaders.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan who is known as one of the smartest bankers, revealed that the bank recently lost $2 billion on risky derivative bets. This loss shows that even experts can make mistakes, and provides three important lessons: keep strategies simple, closely monitor all investments, and remain humble, as even the smartest people can fail. The large loss damages JP Morgan's reputation of being well-managed during the financial crisis.
The financial markets have shown resilience in the face of numerous challenges over the past few years, including issues in the Middle East, high oil prices, a weak housing market, and large bank losses. However, the recent Japanese earthquake will have significant emotional and economic impacts. While the markets have nearly doubled since 2009, at some point investors may decide the headwinds do matter and cause a market correction. Human behavior, which can be irrational under uncertainty, helps explain why markets don't always perform as expected.
The stock market ended 2011 right where it started despite significant volatility. The S&P 500 opened and closed at 1,257.6 but saw daily swings totaling over 3,000 points. Key events in 2011 included the European debt crisis, falling interest rates, political upheaval in the Middle East, Apple's rise led by Steve Jobs, and natural disasters like the Japanese earthquake. Foreign markets declined more sharply than the flat U.S. market. Gold rose while commodities fell on the year.
Margaret Thatcher accurately predicted problems with the euro 17 years before the 2010 crisis. She argued that Germany would prioritize low inflation while the euro would devastate poorer countries' inefficient economies. True to her prediction, the shared currency is causing imbalances between countries with different economic and political systems. Resolving the eurozone's structural problems is very difficult given it requires agreement among 17 countries and their various political parties.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
The document summarizes market volatility in 2011 and discusses the Chinese government's crackdown on freedom of speech through restrictions on social media. Specifically:
- The stock market has seen high volatility in 2011, with the VIX hitting a record high and large intraday swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Investors have been frustrated by the lack of direction in uncertain markets affected by European debt problems and US budget issues.
- China limits freedom of speech to control social unrest, recently requiring real name registration and verification for users of the popular Weibo social media platform.
- The government fears social media could enable mass organization that leads to instability, as seen in the Arab Spring, given China's
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
The European Union summit helped fuel a stock market rally by delivering more fiscal integration steps than expected. While the second quarter saw stock market gains reduced due to concerns over Europe, the US economy, and the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 is still up 8.3% for the year. Investors remain cautious watching the US presidential election and looming fiscal cliff at the end of 2012.
Spain requested a $125 billion bailout to rescue its failing banks as its economy struggles with high unemployment and recession. If Spain's financial troubles escalate, it could destabilize the entire eurozone economy. Meanwhile, Greece will hold a pivotal election that could lead to it leaving the eurozone, an unprecedented event that would plunge the region into uncharted territory. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the Fed stands ready to take action if European and global economic problems worsen.
- Stocks took a hit last week due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis, a potential economic slowdown in China, and JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss.
- Investors are frustrated that after two years and 17 eurozone summits, the European debt issue is still not resolved and may be worse as options are running out.
- The US faces potential economic challenges including a presidential election and fiscal deadlines by the end of the year.
The document summarizes the strong performance of the stock market in the first quarter of 2012, with the S&P 500 rising 12% which was its best start since 1998. Analysts attributed the gains to an easing of Europe's debt crisis, a strengthening global economy, rising US consumer sentiment, and supportive Federal Reserve policy. However, some warn that the market could falter later in the year as it has in recent years, due to potential risks like renewed European debt issues or a slowing US economy.
Central banks around the world have created over $2.5 trillion since 2008 through quantitative easing programs. This involves banks creating money to purchase government and mortgage debt, with the goal of increasing money supply and stimulating the economy. However, low interest rates have resulted in a "stealth tax" on savers as interest earned is below inflation. While helping debtors, quantitative easing may be keeping the economy dependent on unsustainable monetary policy.
The document provides a weekly market commentary for February 27, 2012. It notes that the markets have been calm recently as fears have declined. The S&P 500 reached its highest level in over 3.5 years and volatility is low. However, it warns of potential risks on the horizon from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions that could cause a market correction. The commentary emphasizes that investors should focus on long term trends rather than short term fluctuations.
The document summarizes economic and market data from early February 2012. It reports that January job growth and unemployment data surprised to the upside, pushing stock prices higher. Services sector growth also accelerated. However, housing prices continued to decline sharply from their 2006 peak. Interest rates on mortgages fell to a new record low. Overall, the economy appeared to be gaining momentum after a slowdown in late 2011, though questions remained about sustainability versus stimulus-driven growth.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly on January 18, 2012. It discusses Standard & Poor's downgrading the credit ratings of several eurozone countries, including France and Spain. This underscores the ongoing economic problems in Europe. It also provides market performance data and discusses new technologies showcased at the recent Consumer Electronics Show, including OLED TVs.
1. Hyre Weekly Commentary<br />October 10, 2011<br />The Markets<br />Sometimes a little spark is all you need.<br />At one point last Tuesday, October 4, the S&P 500 index dropped below 1,091, which represented a 20 percent decline from the April 29 closing high, according to MarketWatch. That’s a key number because many investors consider a 20 percent decline to signify a bear market. But, lo and behold, just when it looked like the market might go from bad to worse, the Financial Times (FT) published a story that hit the internet on October 5 and the U.S. stock market staged a massive positive reversal.<br />The FT story said, “European Union finance ministers are examining ways of coordinating recapitalizations of financial institutions after they agreed that additional measures were urgently needed to shore up the region’s banks.”<br />That story prompted a huge 3.7 percent rally in the S&P 500 index in the last hour of trading on Tuesday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Interestingly, the reversal propelled the index well above the key 1,091 level and prevented us from starting a new bear market in the U.S. <br />The key point about the late day reversal on October 4 is not so much that it saved us from printing a new bear market – although that’s good! Rather, the amazing thing is the key reversal was prompted by mere “talk” of another plan to help save the euro-zone from sovereign debt abyss.<br />Last week’s market action reinforced the notion that macro issues like the sovereign debt problem – rather than company-specific news – are still a significant driver of the overall stock market. <br />Until the macro issues get resolved, we should be prepared for major market moves – both up and down – based on the latest headlines.<br />Data as of 10/7/111-WeekY-T-D1-Year3-Year5-Year10-YearStandard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) 2.2%-8.1% -0.9%5.1%-3.1%0.8%DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks)1.2-17.7-14.23.1-3.54.810-year Treasury Note (Yield Only)2.1N/A2.43.54.74.5Gold (per ounce) 2.017.122.823.523.518.9DJ-UBS Commodity Index1.1-12.71.4-2.3-2.74.2DJ Equity All REIT TR Index-1.8-8.3-4.05.9-3.39.1<br />Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.<br />Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.<br />Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable or not available.<br />THREE KEY IDEAS FROM STEVE JOBS<br />With the passing of Steve Jobs, we wanted to share three of his ideas that you may find helpful.<br />Steve Jobs' business career is remarkable by any standard. His ability to go from boy wonder co-founder of Apple Computer, to Chairman and CEO of Pixar, to the largest individual shareholder of The Walt Disney Company, to ousted executive who returned to save Apple and turn it into a seemingly unbeatable brand, is simply amazing. While he made plenty of mistakes in his youth, he matured into a very successful businessman with some insightful thoughts on success. Here are three of his ideas worth sharing:<br />“Connect the dots.” <br />Over time, all of us have incredible life experiences – some positive, and some not. Regardless of the outcome, they ultimately shaped the person you are today. Everything that has happened to you in your past has the ability to positively affect you in the present – if you connect the dots. <br />At a 2005 Commencement address at Stanford University, Jobs told a story about how on a whim, he dropped in on a calligraphy class while attending Reed College back in the early 1970s. At the time, he found the class utterly fascinating, but totally useless. It wasn’t until 10 years later, when he was designing the Macintosh computer, that he was able to connect the dots. The result: the Macintosh became the first computer with beautiful typography and it became a huge hit in the desktop publishing industry. <br />Think for a moment about some of your life experiences. What lessons have you learned? What stories can you create from these lessons that you can share with your family, friends, or business associates? Stories are one of the best ways to connect with people so consider connecting the dots of your life experiences and turn them into a meaningful message. <br />“Say no.” <br />There is no shortage of opportunities in life. However, there is often a shortage of conviction. Rather than trying a little bit of everything and successfully completing nothing, Jobs did the opposite. He was an obsessive focuser on a small number of things that were truly important to him.<br />Apple sells essentially just four products: the Macintosh computer, the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad. With just four main product lines, Jobs led Apple to the world’s most valuable company with a $350 billion market value, according to The Wall Street Journal. Despite the temptation, Jobs resisted the call to offer a multitude of lower-end products and milk the company’s great brand. He said, “It’s only by saying no that you can concentrate on the things that are really important.” <br />Ask yourself, what can you say “no” to in your personal or business life so you have room to say “yes” with complete conviction to something else that’s more important?<br />“Quality, not quantity.”<br />At Pixar, where Jobs built the firm from peanuts into a company that he sold to The Walt Disney Company for $7.4 billion, there is no 80/20 rule. It’s more like the rule of 100—every effort gets 100 percent support. Accordingly, Pixar delivered an average of only one movie every 18 months; a weak pace by major movie studio standards. However, the result was anything but weak. Pixar has generated more than $7.0 billion in worldwide box office receipts since 1995 – and they’ve had no bombs, according to The Numbers. <br />Like Pixar, life is not about quantity. It’s about quality. When you spend more time focusing on quality – such as in relationships – life satisfaction will multiply.<br />In a 2004 BusinessWeek interview, Jobs reflected on his personal growth that resulted from him successfully bouncing back from cancer. He said, “I realized that I loved my life. I really do. I’ve got the greatest family in the world, and I’ve got my work. I love my family, and I love running Apple, and I love Pixar. And I get to do that. I’m very lucky.”<br />By following these simple ideas – connecting the dots, saying no to the unimportant and focusing on quality, not quantity – you, too, can end up with a life you love. Do that and you’ll be one of the lucky few in this life who can look back at the end of their days and say with great conviction, “It was a life well lived.” RIP.<br />Weekly Focus – Think About It<br />“I want to put a ding in the universe.” --Steve Jobs<br />Best regards,<br />Jim Hyre, CFP®<br />Registered Principal<br />P.S. Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added. <br />Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.<br />* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.<br />* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. <br />* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. <br />* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.<br />* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.<br />* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.<br />* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones<br />* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.<br />* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. <br />* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. <br />* You cannot invest directly in an index. <br />* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507<br />* This newsletter was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, registered principal<br />* If you would prefer not to receive this Weekly Newsletter, please contact our office via e-mail or mail your request to 2074 Arlington Ave, Upper Arlington, OH 43221.<br />* The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. 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