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HOWTO ESTIMATE ANYTHING
Learning Night - 01/21/15
WHAT I’MTALKING ABOUTTODAY
• What is a Fermi Estimation?
• An example to get us going…
• Some tips and tricks
• Try it yourself!
• Skeptical?
EVER WONDER HOW MANY OR HOW
OFTEN SOMETHING HAPPENS?
HOW MANY PIANOTUNERS ARE
IN SAN FRANCISCO?
PIANOTUNERS IN SF
• 1M people in SF
• 2 people per household
• 1/20 households have a piano
• each piano tuned once a year
• 2 hours to tune a piano
• tuners work full time for 40 hours a week
THE MATH
• 1M people / 2 people per household = 500K households
• 500K * 1 / 20 pianos/household = 25 000 pianos = 25 000 piano
tunings per year
• 1 hour to tune a piano = 100 000 piano tuning hours
• 100 000 hours / 2 000 hours per piano tuner = ~50 piano tuners!
USEFUL FOR…
• Interviews!
• Satisfying personal curiosity
• Trying to figure out whether or not
Maroon 5 really crashed all those
weddings…
TACTICS
• Top down vs. Bottoms up
• Give a range!
• Easy numbers = Good numbers
• Key is make assumptions based on what you know
HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE NAMED
JONATHAN INTHE WORLD?
LOL.WHAT A DOUCHE.
• Jonathan is a Male name
• 50% of population is Male
• Only Westernized civilizations will name kids Jonathan (2B people)
• 1/16 Males named some variation of Jonathan (Jon, John, Johnathan etc)
• 3B * 50% * 1/16 = 62.5M people named Jonathan
SKEPTICAL?
• Fermi is for…
• quick estimates
• magnitude
• starting points
"FERMI ESTIMATES WORK BECAUSETHE ESTIMATIONS OFTHE
INDIVIDUAL TERMS ARE OFTEN CLOSE TO
CORRECT, AND OVERESTIMATES AND UNDERESTIMATES HELP
CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. "

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How to Estimate Anything

  • 2. WHAT I’MTALKING ABOUTTODAY • What is a Fermi Estimation? • An example to get us going… • Some tips and tricks • Try it yourself! • Skeptical?
  • 3. EVER WONDER HOW MANY OR HOW OFTEN SOMETHING HAPPENS?
  • 4. HOW MANY PIANOTUNERS ARE IN SAN FRANCISCO?
  • 5. PIANOTUNERS IN SF • 1M people in SF • 2 people per household • 1/20 households have a piano • each piano tuned once a year • 2 hours to tune a piano • tuners work full time for 40 hours a week
  • 6. THE MATH • 1M people / 2 people per household = 500K households • 500K * 1 / 20 pianos/household = 25 000 pianos = 25 000 piano tunings per year • 1 hour to tune a piano = 100 000 piano tuning hours • 100 000 hours / 2 000 hours per piano tuner = ~50 piano tuners!
  • 7.
  • 8. USEFUL FOR… • Interviews! • Satisfying personal curiosity • Trying to figure out whether or not Maroon 5 really crashed all those weddings…
  • 9. TACTICS • Top down vs. Bottoms up • Give a range! • Easy numbers = Good numbers • Key is make assumptions based on what you know
  • 10. HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE NAMED JONATHAN INTHE WORLD?
  • 11. LOL.WHAT A DOUCHE. • Jonathan is a Male name • 50% of population is Male • Only Westernized civilizations will name kids Jonathan (2B people) • 1/16 Males named some variation of Jonathan (Jon, John, Johnathan etc) • 3B * 50% * 1/16 = 62.5M people named Jonathan
  • 12. SKEPTICAL? • Fermi is for… • quick estimates • magnitude • starting points
  • 13. "FERMI ESTIMATES WORK BECAUSETHE ESTIMATIONS OFTHE INDIVIDUAL TERMS ARE OFTEN CLOSE TO CORRECT, AND OVERESTIMATES AND UNDERESTIMATES HELP CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. "