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How to do effective research in an irrational world
- 1. Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke How to do effective research in an irrational world
- 2. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke 16% 0% 84%
- 3. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke 68% 32%
- 4. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke My intuitive thinking is just as prone to overconfidence, extreme predictions, and fallacy as it was before I made a study of these issues. Daniel Kahneman
- 5. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Actor–observer bias Ambiguity effect Anchoring or focalism Anthropomorphism Attentional bias Authority bias Automation bias Availability cascade Availability heuristic Backfire effect Bandwagon effect Base rate neglect Belief bias Bias blind spot Bizarreness effect Change bias Cheerleader effect Childhood amnesia Choice-supportive bias Clustering illusion Confirmation bias Congruence bias Conjunction fallacy Conservatism Regressive bias Consistency bias Context effect Continued influence effect Contrast effect Cross-race effect Cryptomnesia Curse of knowledge Declinism Decoy effect Defensive attribution hypothesis Denomination effect Disposition effect Distinction bias Dunning-Kruger effect Duration neglect Egocentric bias Empathy gap Endowment effect Essentialism Exaggerated expectation Experimenter's or expectation bias Extrinsic incentives bias Fading affect bias False consensus effect False memory Focusing effect Forer effect Framing effect Frequency illusion Functional fixedness Gambler's fallacy Generation effect Google effect Group attribution error Halo effect Hard–easy effect Hindsight bias Hot-hand fallacy Humor effect Hyperbolic discounting Identifiable victim effect IKEA effect Illusion of control Illusion of external agency Illusion of transparency Illusion of truth effect Illusion of validity Illusory correlation Illusory superiority Impact bias Information bias Ingroup bias Insensitivity to sample size Irrational escalation Just-world hypothesis Lag effect Less-is-better effect Cognitive biases
- 6. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke The future The past The present
- 7. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke The future The past The present
- 8. System 1 System 2
- 9. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Jack is married. George is not. Jack is looking at Anne. Anne is looking at George. Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? A. Yes B. No C. Can’t be determined
- 10. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Jack is married. George is not. Jack is looking at Anne. Anne is looking at George Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? A. Yes B. No C. Can’t be determined
- 11. Wellcome Trust CC BY 4.0 Wellcome Trust CC BY 4.0 Cold stateHot state
- 12. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Proportionofprisonersgettingparole Snack break Lunch Rate at which judges grant parole
- 13. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Ease of use more important than Security Security more important than Ease of use
- 14. 1 in 25… but it’ll never happen to me No-one believes they will be the 1 in 25 Photo by NY Photographic, CC BY-SA 3.0
- 15. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People can’t reliably predict the future, because… System 2 doesn’t know what system 1 will do Cold states don’t understand hot states, and vice versa The optimism bias distorts how we see the future
- 16. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People can’t reliably predict the future, so… Mimic real world conditions as much as possible in research Look at recorded behaviour, instead of predictions Take account of the real conditions when analysing results
- 17. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke The future The past The present
- 18. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Quality of data Time since event Long ago The approximate curve of forgetting Caroline Jarrett Recent Low High Major life event Occasional, salient Unremarkable, repetitive
- 19. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Sometimes, people just make it up
- 20. 25% of people recalled being lost in the mall Photo by Nightscream, CC BY-SA 2.5
- 21. 55% of people remembered seeing the crash Photo by Tony Hisgett, CC BY 2.0
- 22. 55% of people remembered seeing the crash Photo by Tony Hisgett, CC BY 2.0 Our strongest memories are the most distorted Photo by John Perivolaris, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
- 23. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People can’t accurately remember the past, because… Some things are not particularly memorable People can unknowingly create false memories Stronger memories have been repeatedly altered over time
- 24. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People can’t accurately remember the past, so… Don’t ask people about trivial things unless they’re very recent Avoid leading questions Look at recorded behaviour, rather than asking for people’s memories Check in regularly over time, to collect fresher, recent memories
- 25. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke The future The past The present
- 27. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Social desirability changes based on context
- 28. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke CA B D E Which two lines are the same length? Asch conformity experiments
- 29. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke JamJAMJam experts Normal people JAM Jam Strawberry illustrations by Huge Alberto, Creative Stall and Fernando Affonso, from the Noun Project BEST WORST
- 30. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke JamJAMJam experts Normal people JAMJam asked why Strawberry illustrations by Huge Alberto, Creative Stall and Fernando Affonso, from the Noun Project BEST WORST
- 31. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People don’t always tell the truth because… They want to give the ‘socially desirable’ answer They want to follow the herd – even when they’re alone The introspection illusion means they don’t really know why they feel the way they do
- 32. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People don’t always tell the truth, so… Ask scrupulously neutral questions Don’t let slip which answers are most popular or the ‘right’ answer Ask what before you ask why Treat users’ answers to ‘why’ questions as hypotheses
- 33. How to do effective research in an irrational world Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke People can't always reliably predict their future People can't always accurately remember the past People won’t always tell the truth in the present
- 34. Thank you Kat Matfield @lovedaybrooke Slides and references at katmatfield.com/research-irrational-world