The document discusses how first principles thinking and financial technology (fintech) are disrupting traditional banking. It argues that margins have declined, acquisition costs have increased, and neo banks and other fintech firms now manage over $1.4 trillion in deposits without physical branches. It predicts that within 10 years, the largest financial institution may not be a bank at all, and that augmented reality, artificial intelligence, sensors and other technologies will further transform banking experiences and make human advisors less competitive.

1. BANK 4.0
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Why First Principles is killing traditional banking

2. E R M A , I B M A N D C H E C K P R O C E S S I N G
THE MAINFRAME ERA

3. THE SELF-SERVICE ERA
“ T H E M O S T I M P O R T A N T F I N A N C I A L I N N O V A T I O N T H A T I H A V E S E E N
. T H E P A S T 2 0 Y E A R S I S T H E A U T O M A T I C T E L L E R M A C H I N E “
. PA U L V O L C K E R , F E D C H A I R M A N , 2 0 0 9

4. THE EXPERIENCE ERAT H E I P H O N E WA S J U S T T H E S TA R T

5. THE AUGMENTED AGET H E B I G G E S T D I S R U P T I O N S T O B A N K I N G A R E Y E T T O C O M E

6. A N D R O B O T I C S
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

7. EMBEDDED EXPERIENCESA I , M I X E D R E A L I T Y, C O N T E X T U A L , G E O - L O C AT I O N , B E H AV I O R A L , I O T

8. HEALTH TECH & GENE EDITINGA I , S E N S O R S , B I O E N G I N E E R I N G , B I O T E C H

9. SMART INFRASTRUCTURES M A R T E C O N O M I E S , C I T I E S & C O M PA N I E S

10. FIRST PRINCIPLESH O W # F I N T E C H I S R E D E F I N I N G B A N K I N G A N D T H E “ B A N K ”

13. IT TOOK 50 YEARST O R E D U C E C O S T P E R L B / K G T O O R B I T B Y 6 0 -7 0 %

14. IN JUST 8 YEARSS PA C E X H A S R E D U C E D I T 9 5 % F R O M T H E S H U T T L E

15. THE 2007 IPHONEWA S A C L E A R F I R S T P R I N C I P L E S D E S I G N A P P R O A C H

16. DESIGN BY ANALOGYA P P LY PAY WA S N O T - A P P L E PAY WA S C A R D I T E R AT I O N

17. THE ITERATION RUTB A N K I N G / F I N T E C H N E E D S F I R S T P R I N C I P L E S

18. MARGINS ARE GONEA C Q U I S I T I O N C O S T S H AV E S K Y R O C K E T E D T H E L A S T 2 0 Y E A R S

20. DISRUPTED SAVINGSY U ’ E B A O D I S R U P T E D T H E D E P O S I T M O D E L ( $ 9 3 B N A U M )
A L I PAY A L R E A D Y D O E S 9 6 0 % T H E D A I LY T X V O L U M E O F V I S A

21. THE PROBLEM WITH THE BRANCH IS NOT A DESIGN
PROBLEM… WILL ALL BRANCHES DISAPPEAR?
NO, BUT EVERY BANK RELIANT
ON BRANCHES WILL DISAPPEAR
BRETT KING, AMERICAN BANKER COMMENTARY
IT’S BEHAVIOR STUPIDT H E P R O B L E M W I T H B R A N C H D E C L I N E I S N O T A D E S I G N P R O B L E M

22. WEBSITE = BRANCH“ O U R B U S I E S T B R A N C H I S T H E 7 : 0 1 F R O M R E A D I N G T O PA D D I N G T O N ”
R O S S M C E WA N , R B S - 2 0 1 4

23. EMBEDDED BANKINGU B E R I S O N E O F T H E U S ’ L A R G E S T A C Q U I R E R S O F S M E A C C O U N T S

24. 22% OF DEPOSITSI N C H I N A A R E M O B I L E . 8 2 % O F O N L I N E C O M M E R C E I S T O O

25. DE-BRANCHED NEO BANKSO V E R 6 Y E A R S D O Z E N S O F N E W C H A L L E N G E R B A N K S H AV E O P T E D O U T

26. $1.4 TRILLION IN DEPOSITSN E O - B A N K S , R O B O - A D V I S O R S , M O B I L E M O N E Y N O W M A N A G E 1 . 2 B N C U S T O M E R S

27. 3x DEUTSCHE BANKA N T F I N A N C I A L I S T H E L A R G E S T F I N T E C H I N T H E W O R L D

28. CHINA BANKING EROSIOND E P O S I T S A R E AT 4 0 % G R E AT E R R I S K T O D AY D U E T O B - A -T I N N O VAT I O N S

29. D O W E T R U LY N E E D B A N K S O R B A N K A C C O U N T S
I N T H I S N E W W O R L D
WHERE WE’RE GOINGD O W E N E E D “ B A N K S ” O R B A N K A C C O U N T S AT A L L ?

30. PRODUCTS TO EXPERIENCESF I R S T P R I N C I P L E S # F I N T E C H I S R E M O V I N G P R O D U C T “ VA L U E ”

31. SURFACING UTILITYC O N T E X T A N D E X P E R I E N C E A R E T H E V I TA L FA C T O R S

32. NEW ADVICE PARADIGMSW H E N M A C H I N E S O U T P E R F O R M H U M A N S I N T H E A D V I C E G A M E

34. AI-BASED AGENCY/COMMERCE
O V E R T H E N E X T 1 0 Y E A R S W E ’ L L D E L E G AT E C O M M E R C E T O A G E N C Y

35. MIXED REALITY GLASSESB Y 2 0 2 5 A U G M E N T E D R E A L I T Y T E C H W I L L B E L I K E I P H O N E T O D AY

36. SENSOR DATA EXPLOSIONR I S K A N D R E L AT I O N S H I P W I L L B E S E N S O R & D ATA - B A S E D

37. NO MORE “HUMAN SPEED”H U M A N A D V I S O R S K I L L R E A L-T I M E R E V E N U E P R O S P E C T S

38. INFORMATION ASYMMETRYA I S W I L L O U T P E R F O R M H U M A N S B E C A U S E O F D ATA S Y N T H E S I S

39. THE ROBOT POPULATIONW I L L O U T N U M B E R H U M A N S B Y 2 0 3 5

40. AIs BETTER AT DIAGNOSISI B M WAT S O N O U T P E R F O R M S D O C T O R S 2 X I N O N C O L O G Y

41. AIs WILL SURPRISE USG O O G L E ’ S A I I N V E N T E D I T ’ S O W N L A N G U A G E

42. AIs WITH PERSONALITYA U D I ’ S A I R A C E C A R S D R I V E D I F F E R E N T LY F R O M E A C H O T H E R
D E S P I T E H AV I N G E X A C T LY T H E S A M E H A R D WA R E & F I R M WA R E

43. IDENTITY ALGORITHMSA R E 2 0 X S A F E R T H A N A C C O U N T O P E N I N G W I T H A H U M A N

44. CAPITAL EFFICIENCYF I N T E C H ’ S D E P L O Y C A P I TA L M U C H M O R E E F F E C T I V E LY

45. INNOVATION DRAG/LAGI N C U M B E N T S W I L L N E V E R B E A B L E T O I N N O VAT E FA S T E N O U G H

46. INERTIA & OLD RAILST H E B I G G E S T T H R E AT S T O I N C U M B E N T S A R E M O S T LY I N T E R N A L

47. PARTNER, ACQUIRE, MIMICT H E L E A S T E F F E C T I V E PAT H F O R I N C U M B E N T S I S T O D U P L I C AT E F I N T E C H I N N O VAT I O N

48. 2025/THE BIGGEST BANK
T H E B I G G E S T F I N A N C I A L I N S T I T U T I O N W O N ’ T B E A B A N K AT A L L

49. The world’s first Global Fintech Radio Show
#1 Business Show on Voice America
3 million listeners in 140 countriesU K , U S A , C a n a d a , G e r m a n y, A u s t r a l i a , F r a n c e , J a p a n
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