The document analyzes the housing bubble and collapse and identifies an opportunity for profits in homebuilder stock Hovnanian. It describes the typical stages of a bubble, including rapid growth, peak, and collapse. Charts show Hovnanian stock mirrored this bubble pattern from 2001-2009, with a peak at $70 before falling to $0.50. The document argues the stock has stabilized at $2 and begun an uptrend in 2009, suggesting an opportunity for tremendous gains as the recovery progresses.
Electronically stored databases can provide both positive and negative effects. Positively, they expand access to information for all users, serve individual needs and interests, and allow unprecedented information sharing. However, databases also present challenges like high costs for documentation, management and storage. Compatibility and accessibility issues can also arise if not properly implemented and maintained.
For more of my thoughts on RJ, please visit
https://sites.google.com/site/shirokashimura/Home/rj
(Containing notes and bibliographies of RJ, focusing on its roots in the period of 1940-60 and on developments/introduction of it in Japan since 1970s.)
The document summarizes key events that occurred during the 1980s, known as the "lost decade". It mentions the end of the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union in 1989 which reduced nuclear tensions. Specific events called out include John Paul II surviving an assassination attempt in 1981, Michael Jackson's "Thriller" becoming the best-selling album of all time in 1982, an earthquake in Mexico City killing over 35,000 people in 1985, and the fall of the Berlin Wall in Germany in 1989.
A great overview of the sport of Adventure Racing, focused on Canada. Adventure Racing is a wilderness, multisport race, typically for teams, involving navigation through an unmarked racecourse in spectacular wilderness locations.
El documento explica los diferentes sistemas de numeración digitales como el binario, decimal, octal y hexadecimal. Describe cómo estos sistemas se pueden usar en los sistemas digitales y cómo convertir números entre ellos, incluyendo pasos para convertir números decimales a binarios y viceversa.
Electronically stored databases can provide both positive and negative effects. Positively, they expand access to information for all users, serve individual needs and interests, and allow unprecedented information sharing. However, databases also present challenges like high costs for documentation, management and storage. Compatibility and accessibility issues can also arise if not properly implemented and maintained.
For more of my thoughts on RJ, please visit
https://sites.google.com/site/shirokashimura/Home/rj
(Containing notes and bibliographies of RJ, focusing on its roots in the period of 1940-60 and on developments/introduction of it in Japan since 1970s.)
The document summarizes key events that occurred during the 1980s, known as the "lost decade". It mentions the end of the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union in 1989 which reduced nuclear tensions. Specific events called out include John Paul II surviving an assassination attempt in 1981, Michael Jackson's "Thriller" becoming the best-selling album of all time in 1982, an earthquake in Mexico City killing over 35,000 people in 1985, and the fall of the Berlin Wall in Germany in 1989.
A great overview of the sport of Adventure Racing, focused on Canada. Adventure Racing is a wilderness, multisport race, typically for teams, involving navigation through an unmarked racecourse in spectacular wilderness locations.
El documento explica los diferentes sistemas de numeración digitales como el binario, decimal, octal y hexadecimal. Describe cómo estos sistemas se pueden usar en los sistemas digitales y cómo convertir números entre ellos, incluyendo pasos para convertir números decimales a binarios y viceversa.
Bubbles form in several predictable phases: initially, a small group profits which attracts more investors, driving prices up further. This positive feedback creates a bubble as prices become disconnected from fundamentals. Eventually prices peak and the bubble bursts as panic selling drives prices down. After hitting a bottom defined by extreme pessimism, a small group recognizes the turnaround and invests again, slowly improving sentiment until the cycle repeats.
The document discusses economic bubbles, defining them as situations where asset prices exceed their fundamental value due to speculative demand. It then provides examples of different types of bubbles like market, commodity, and stock bubbles. The causes of bubbles are explained as irrational exuberance, herding behavior, short-termism, and monetary policy issues. Finally, the 5 stages of bubbles are outlined as displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.
The document discusses global economic volatility in the 4th quarter of 2011. It notes uncertainty from events like the Japan earthquake, Eurozone debt crisis, and US debt ceiling debate. Markets became extremely volatile since late July as risk aversion increased. The portfolio has reduced its allocation to JSE equities as prices fell despite strong company earnings. It remains defensively positioned in resources and retailers. The strategy is to reduce cash holdings and selectively buy equities at cheaper prices. The Foord International Trust aims to do this while avoiding long-dated bonds and focusing on multinational companies with emerging market exposure. One highlighted holding, LVMH, benefits from growing Chinese consumer spending.
The document discusses global economic volatility in the 4th quarter of 2011. It notes uncertainty from events like the Japan earthquake, Eurozone debt crisis, and US debt ceiling debate. Markets became extremely volatile since late July as risk aversion increased. The portfolio has reduced its allocation to JSE equities as prices fell despite strong company earnings. It remains defensively positioned in resources and retailers. The strategy is to reduce cash holdings and selectively buy equities at cheaper prices. The Foord International Trust aims to do this while avoiding long-dated bonds due to low yields and inflation risks. It focuses on multinational companies with emerging market exposure and defensive sectors. LVMH is highlighted as benefiting from growth in mainland Asian consumers
- The document discusses the minutes from the recent Fed meeting which revealed divisions among members on the outlook for inflation. This caused increased division among investors as stocks and bonds both rose, seen as a contradiction.
- It suggests the Fed is actually more worried about inflation than they state publicly. Their divisions may be an attempt to cover up these underlying concerns.
- Looking ahead, it says the upcoming ECB minutes could confirm the euro's downtrend or spark a breakout to the upside, completing a triple bottom pattern. It argues Draghi may have misled euro investors about the ECB's intentions.
This document examines real estate cycles around the world and discusses lessons that can be learned from booms and busts. It describes how real estate markets experience cyclical fluctuations due to imperfect information and the time lag between demand and new supply. Both speculation and government policies can impact real estate cycles. The document also discusses the stages of a typical real estate cycle, from recovery to prosperity to recession to depression and back to recovery. It analyzes the role of speculation in both fueling booms and helping clear excess inventory during busts. The key lesson is that better information dissemination is needed to avoid speculation manias that can exacerbate real estate cycles.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
The document discusses the recent underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to gold prices, as represented by declines in the HUI Index. It analyzes technical indicators that suggest gold stocks may continue to decline in the medium term, potentially retesting support levels from 2015-2016. It also notes threats to continued economic growth like inflation, debt levels, and financial market instability that could support further gains in gold prices.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
This document provides an overview of the chapters in a book about profiting from the financial crisis. It summarizes the causes of the crisis as risky lending practices by banks that led to a housing bubble. When housing prices declined, it caused mortgage-backed securities to plummet in value. This led to losses for banks and a freezing of the credit markets. The crisis then spread globally. However, the document argues that crises also create investment opportunities for knowledgeable investors, and the following chapters will discuss how to profit by buying undervalued stocks and sectors.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis of opportunities for 2014. It maintains a strategy of being long certain equities outside the US while preparing for volatility. The US and Europe are seen as in bubble territory for stocks and credit. Japan is pursuing aggressive monetary policies that could drive further equity gains and yen weakness. China's growth is positive in the short term but credit risks loom in coming years. Corrections are anticipated, with tapering, disappointing data, or earnings declines as possible catalysts. The document recommends hedging positions and selectivity in international equities and commodities tied to China.
The document provides an August market outlook. It recommends caution due to overvalued stocks and slowing economic and earnings growth. It advises raising cash as leading companies and sectors will likely fall further. While markets are overvalued, investors can start trading sideways basing periods as companies transition to fair valuation. Once an economic recovery is visible, investors can begin buying undervalued companies at bargain prices to hold for the next bull market. Overall the outlook suggests a cautious approach, avoiding buying at market tops, and looking for opportunities within basing periods and future economic recovery.
Signs of an impending stock market crashSwapnilRege2
Stock Markets Greed Fear market Pyschology Sotck market Fluctuations Signs of Stock market reaching the top Initial signs of bear market beginning Market fluctuations
Week 5 what are good trading shares chart indicators volume the price vol...Balamory Investments
The document discusses good shares for trading and the importance of volume. It provides a list of sectors and example companies that typically have good trading volume like resources, industrials, financials, and retailers. It then outlines principles of interpreting volume, like volume normally going with the trend, volume often leading price changes, and how unusually high or low volume can signal weakness or strength in the trend. The document emphasizes that volume is an important independent indicator that should agree with the price action.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses ongoing concerns around the LIBOR manipulation scandal and hopes that issues with unallocated gold schemes will be similarly exposed. The outlook then covers views on currencies, fixed income, property, equities, commodities, and alternative investments. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to challenges facing central banks and struggling economies. Commercial property is given mixed views, with caution on US and UK markets but growth seen in other regions.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses concerns around ongoing weakness in the Eurozone and prospects of hyperinflation. Fixed income markets remain challenging with central banks trying to stimulate growth through low rates. Cautious outlook on property markets except for prime central London, with concerns around overvaluation in some markets like India, Brazil, and parts of China.
Bubbles form in several predictable phases: initially, a small group profits which attracts more investors, driving prices up further. This positive feedback creates a bubble as prices become disconnected from fundamentals. Eventually prices peak and the bubble bursts as panic selling drives prices down. After hitting a bottom defined by extreme pessimism, a small group recognizes the turnaround and invests again, slowly improving sentiment until the cycle repeats.
The document discusses economic bubbles, defining them as situations where asset prices exceed their fundamental value due to speculative demand. It then provides examples of different types of bubbles like market, commodity, and stock bubbles. The causes of bubbles are explained as irrational exuberance, herding behavior, short-termism, and monetary policy issues. Finally, the 5 stages of bubbles are outlined as displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.
The document discusses global economic volatility in the 4th quarter of 2011. It notes uncertainty from events like the Japan earthquake, Eurozone debt crisis, and US debt ceiling debate. Markets became extremely volatile since late July as risk aversion increased. The portfolio has reduced its allocation to JSE equities as prices fell despite strong company earnings. It remains defensively positioned in resources and retailers. The strategy is to reduce cash holdings and selectively buy equities at cheaper prices. The Foord International Trust aims to do this while avoiding long-dated bonds and focusing on multinational companies with emerging market exposure. One highlighted holding, LVMH, benefits from growing Chinese consumer spending.
The document discusses global economic volatility in the 4th quarter of 2011. It notes uncertainty from events like the Japan earthquake, Eurozone debt crisis, and US debt ceiling debate. Markets became extremely volatile since late July as risk aversion increased. The portfolio has reduced its allocation to JSE equities as prices fell despite strong company earnings. It remains defensively positioned in resources and retailers. The strategy is to reduce cash holdings and selectively buy equities at cheaper prices. The Foord International Trust aims to do this while avoiding long-dated bonds due to low yields and inflation risks. It focuses on multinational companies with emerging market exposure and defensive sectors. LVMH is highlighted as benefiting from growth in mainland Asian consumers
- The document discusses the minutes from the recent Fed meeting which revealed divisions among members on the outlook for inflation. This caused increased division among investors as stocks and bonds both rose, seen as a contradiction.
- It suggests the Fed is actually more worried about inflation than they state publicly. Their divisions may be an attempt to cover up these underlying concerns.
- Looking ahead, it says the upcoming ECB minutes could confirm the euro's downtrend or spark a breakout to the upside, completing a triple bottom pattern. It argues Draghi may have misled euro investors about the ECB's intentions.
This document examines real estate cycles around the world and discusses lessons that can be learned from booms and busts. It describes how real estate markets experience cyclical fluctuations due to imperfect information and the time lag between demand and new supply. Both speculation and government policies can impact real estate cycles. The document also discusses the stages of a typical real estate cycle, from recovery to prosperity to recession to depression and back to recovery. It analyzes the role of speculation in both fueling booms and helping clear excess inventory during busts. The key lesson is that better information dissemination is needed to avoid speculation manias that can exacerbate real estate cycles.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
The document discusses the recent underperformance of gold mining stocks relative to gold prices, as represented by declines in the HUI Index. It analyzes technical indicators that suggest gold stocks may continue to decline in the medium term, potentially retesting support levels from 2015-2016. It also notes threats to continued economic growth like inflation, debt levels, and financial market instability that could support further gains in gold prices.
- The document discusses whether the current stock market is in a bubble. It notes that by some measures like price-to-earnings ratios, stocks are not yet in bubble territory as they were in 2000.
- It provides several facts to counter the "hair on fire" media coverage of the stock market: there are no true market gurus, markets tend to rise over time, trying to time the market often fails, and cash is not king compared to long term investing in stocks.
- Even if a bubble forms, bubbles always burst eventually but stocks recover over time, so investors should stick to their plan and not panic during downturns.
This document provides an overview of the chapters in a book about profiting from the financial crisis. It summarizes the causes of the crisis as risky lending practices by banks that led to a housing bubble. When housing prices declined, it caused mortgage-backed securities to plummet in value. This led to losses for banks and a freezing of the credit markets. The crisis then spread globally. However, the document argues that crises also create investment opportunities for knowledgeable investors, and the following chapters will discuss how to profit by buying undervalued stocks and sectors.
This document provides an investment outlook and analysis of opportunities for 2014. It maintains a strategy of being long certain equities outside the US while preparing for volatility. The US and Europe are seen as in bubble territory for stocks and credit. Japan is pursuing aggressive monetary policies that could drive further equity gains and yen weakness. China's growth is positive in the short term but credit risks loom in coming years. Corrections are anticipated, with tapering, disappointing data, or earnings declines as possible catalysts. The document recommends hedging positions and selectivity in international equities and commodities tied to China.
The document provides an August market outlook. It recommends caution due to overvalued stocks and slowing economic and earnings growth. It advises raising cash as leading companies and sectors will likely fall further. While markets are overvalued, investors can start trading sideways basing periods as companies transition to fair valuation. Once an economic recovery is visible, investors can begin buying undervalued companies at bargain prices to hold for the next bull market. Overall the outlook suggests a cautious approach, avoiding buying at market tops, and looking for opportunities within basing periods and future economic recovery.
Signs of an impending stock market crashSwapnilRege2
Stock Markets Greed Fear market Pyschology Sotck market Fluctuations Signs of Stock market reaching the top Initial signs of bear market beginning Market fluctuations
Week 5 what are good trading shares chart indicators volume the price vol...Balamory Investments
The document discusses good shares for trading and the importance of volume. It provides a list of sectors and example companies that typically have good trading volume like resources, industrials, financials, and retailers. It then outlines principles of interpreting volume, like volume normally going with the trend, volume often leading price changes, and how unusually high or low volume can signal weakness or strength in the trend. The document emphasizes that volume is an important independent indicator that should agree with the price action.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses ongoing concerns around the LIBOR manipulation scandal and hopes that issues with unallocated gold schemes will be similarly exposed. The outlook then covers views on currencies, fixed income, property, equities, commodities, and alternative investments. Fixed income is viewed negatively due to challenges facing central banks and struggling economies. Commercial property is given mixed views, with caution on US and UK markets but growth seen in other regions.
The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for August 2012 from The Henley Group. It discusses concerns around ongoing weakness in the Eurozone and prospects of hyperinflation. Fixed income markets remain challenging with central banks trying to stimulate growth through low rates. Cautious outlook on property markets except for prime central London, with concerns around overvaluation in some markets like India, Brazil, and parts of China.
Similar to Hovnanian Stock Pick: How Overreaction + Sentiment + Charts = Tremendous Profits (20)
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
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The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
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A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
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2. Would you be extremely upset at yourself if you missed an easy opportunity to make a 900% return on your investment?
The Housing Bubble has created one of the biggest investment opportunities in the market’s history.
It is specifically when sentiment is at the negative extreme that profits are most readily available to those who recognize the opportunity.
The following presentation will:
1) Describe the stages of bubble formation, collapse, and recovery
2) Demonstrate how the housing bubble we have seen fits all the relevant criteria of a bubble
3) Prove the existence of opportunity for tremendous profits by explaining crowd behavior and market recovery
4) Providing charts and information that strongly suggest the accuracy of our predictions
5) Present the reader with a TREMENDOUS OPPORTUNITY FOR EXTREME PROFITS
Bubbles share the same basic phases:
1) Increased profits are seen by few (Investor group #1).
a. Fairly rapid growth/rise in prices follows.
2) Those who saw the successful few, follow in their footsteps in hopes of similar profits (Investor group #2).
3) Investor Group #2 sees profits as well, as prices continue to increase due to the continuous inflow of new investors.
4) With investors chasing rapidly-increasing prices in search of huge profits, a BUBBLE has formed.
5) At this point, the extremely positive outlook continues as prices continue to soar to unprecedented levels.
6) The bubble continues to expand, but prices are rising due to investors frantically chasing profits.
a. Prices now reflect the extreme optimism and euphoria that hope the “Great Times” will continue.
7) But with millions of investors already invested, and with sentiment being overwhelmingly positive, there is not much room for growth.
a. Growth cannot continue forever. Prices have skyrocketed to levels not consistent with the underlying fundamentals.
b. In effect, prices reflect the investors’ overconfidence in chasing profits – “Panic Buying.”
8) With no one to keep this bubble expanding, and with prices reaching their peak, expectations are no longer met.
Yoni Jacobs 2
3. a. The run-up can no longer continue – the last group of investors has chased the last available profits.
9) The market begins to see signs of weakness/prices are finally seen as extremely inflated.
10) Having already reached the peak, some investors begin taking profits, sending prices down.
11) Just as in the “up phase,” the few who acted first (before the rest of the crowd) came out ahead – this time saving their profits.
12) The Bubble has reached its capacity – prices are high, crowd sentiment is euphoric, and underlying fundamentals do not provide support.
13) New information begins to emerge, suggesting weakness and warning about the current fragile situation.
14) Again, just as in the “up phase” many investors chased profits in a panic state, they now race to protect their assets in a “panic selling spree.”
15) The Bubble has formed, expanded, reached its peak, burst, and is rapidly deflating.
a. Investors are losing extraordinary amounts of money and community sentiment is plummeting.
b. Panic selling continues, terrible news continues to surface about the weakened state of the underlying economy.
16) After much of the bad news has surfaced, and after most investors have fled by selling or staying away, a bottom is reached.
a. Prices shot up, reached a peak, tumbled down, and are now at a level reflecting extreme fear, panic, and pessimism.
17) But just as prices were overly optimistic to an extreme at the peak, they are now overly pessimistic to an extreme at the bottom.
a. With the bulk of the crowd predicting a bleak future, there are few (if any) who believe the worst is over.
b. And with no one left to continue the downward cycle, expectations can only be exceeded from here on out.
c. It will take a lot to convince the masses that the situation is turning back around.
18) The situation begins to improve, but the majority refuses to accept it because of the losses seen and the fear that continues to exist.
19) A very small minority of investors realizes a bottom has been reached and begins to invest again.
20) New information continues to point to a stabilization and recovery.
21) Investors’ confidence continues to increase, and more investors begin putting their money in again.
22) Just as in the “up phase” and the “panic selling spree,” where greed and fear created a panic in chasing profits and then, correspondingly, in protecting
from losses, the “recovery phase” also sees a panic – this time a panic to catch the prices rising back to normal.
23) The extremely negative sentiment slowly turns more positive as a recovery is in place – and prices emerge from the abyss to begin a new cycle of growth
24) Increasing prices and the profits of a few profit chasing and greed by the crowd skyrocketing prices based on euphoria information surfaces
suggesting the situation is not as bright as it seems investors begin to pull their money out continued negative news leads to panic selling
market bottom is reached due to extremely negative sentiment and bleak future outlooks the few who see the bottom begin to invest again while
the rest of the crowd needs further proof of a recovery new information suggests stabilization and recovery investors begin to pour their money
back into the market prices recover, sentiment is positive again, the worst is far over those who saw the bottom and went against the crowd now
see tremendous profits The market recovers, profits are seen, and the cycle begins again
25) Will you be one of the few who saw it coming?
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4. Hovnanian (HOV) – 2000 to 2009
1)Notice the RAPID run-up from $5/share to
$70/share between 2001 and 2006 Bubble Peak
2)While the stock was skyrocketing, so was the
housing bubble – forming in 2001 and bursting
in late 2005/2006
3) The stock charts were presenting the exact
behavior of the bubble
Rapid Run-Up
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5. A “Head and Shoulders” pattern emerges,
signaling frantic bubble behavior and an Head
impending collapse
Shoulder #1 those investors who
jumped in during the middle stages of Shoulder #1
profit-chasing
Head the extreme greed of those last Shoulder #2
investors who sought profits and missed
the bubble’s rise
Shoulder #2 the final, but futile push by
investors to regain momentum and bring
the stock back to its highs (before it
ultimately collapsed)
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6. Volume (# of shares being traded)
supports our observations about Bubble
behavior:
1 Increased volume in early 2001
represents the initial investors and the
beginning of the bubble
2 after a considerable run-up, the
second wave of investors jump in
3 forming Shoulder #1, the third wave
of investors join in (notice how the third
wave involves more investors than the
previous two waves)
5
2 3 4
1
4 Volume at the Head/Peak is lower
than during the run-up. This signals the
lack of new investors in the bubble and
the upcoming decline
5 As the stock price sharply plummets
and negative information surfaces,
investor fear leads to panic selling
(notice the higher volume and extreme
negative reaction on the way down)
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7. • The Bubble formed, expanded, and burst
• Volume supports our prediction of
investor behavior
• Prices are back to Pre-Bubble levels
• Positive Momentum is much higher in
2009 than it was even at the peak of the
bubble!
• The Recovery is on its way
5
2 3 4
1
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8. Following a 4 year decline, the stock price stabilizes at
around $2 after hitting a low of 50 cents!
In July, Hovnanian breaks the downtrend and begins the
uptrend (backed by increased volume)
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9. Following a quick run-up, HOV stock takes a short break at around $4.
A triangle pattern forms, and the price action breaks out of the pattern
signaling a continued run-up to follow.
As long as the price stays above the bottom of the triangle pattern, HOV
stock can be expected to continue its recovery
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10. HOV has tremendous upside potential due to:
1) Chart patterns –
a. a “Head and Shoulders” has been completed and is now signaling recovery
b. the downtrend has been broken, supported by increased volume
c. the positive momentum was recently higher than any time in the last 10 years! This divergence could be signaling a huge rally.
2) Short interest -
a. The short interest in the stock (people betting against it) is a little under 30%!
b. If any decent (not even necessarily “good”) news comes out, expectations will be exceeded and the stock could skyrocket following the short
squeeze that would follow. In other words, once the short sellers start to panic, the price could soar.
3) % of stock owned by Insiders –
a. 19% of stock is owned by insiders
b. Represents confidence by the company’s employees
4) Sentiment –
a. Sentiment has been extremely negative concerning the economy and housing market in general
b. Sentiment has been so low that expectations are extremely low as well. We are already seeing the situation improving, but sentiment is still
negative. In general, the crowd is usually behind the curve.
c. Once investors begin to realize the market is doing better (not even “good”), stock prices will quickly rise.
d. Hovnanian stock, specifically, has been brutally battered from $70 to 50 cents! Sentiment has been to its lows; things can only improve.
Target Price (1 – 2 yrs):
1) $10 (150% profit) – due to:
a. overall market recovery
b. Housing market begins to recover
2) $20 (300% profit) – due to:
a. Overall market recovery
b. Housing market begins to recover Most Likely
c. Short squeeze
3) $40 (900% profit) – due to:
a. Overall market recovery
b. Housing market recovery under way
c. Short squeeze
d. Extreme positive overreaction
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