This document contains 3 summaries of house price data: 1) US house price indices like the S&P Case-Shiller Index and measures of unemployment from 2000-2015, showing house prices peaked in 2005-2006 and have yet to fully recover. 2) Plans to also include house price data from Eurozone countries like Germany at a later time. 3) House price data from a local market in eastern Germany from 1998-2015, which peaked in 2008 after incentives were removed and during the financial crisis, and has slowly increased since.

1. House prices
REMINDER
This is just a quick shot from the hip, short sampler of some
graphs for a discussion in a blog
Be very careful with interpretation, without being involved in
the actual discussion, and all the remarks going with it
1. Case Shiller US with some other housing indices, crude scaling,
unemployment (U-3 and U-6), interest rate / mortgage scaling
2. Euro / German prices to be filled in later
3. A local German market

2. House prices (US Case shiller , ofheo, etc US data are by
far the most
The Big Greenspan House Price Bubble extensive
250
real data speculation
28% well organized
S&P Case Shiller Index (2000 == 100), OFHEO median [k$]
12/31/2013 ln (200 / 80) / 22 yrs = 4.16 % - 2.5 % inflation =1.66 % CSXR
latest target break even exp((2.5 infl + 1.5 prod) x 22 yrs) * 80.3 = 194 26%
estimate
3.0%
225 24%
UK market second
22% OFHEO Corr
200 20%
in data quality
OFHEO
Prediction
unemployment
18%
base rate
175 16% correction
Rest of Europe
median existing
14% single family
home price
lagging, most the
unemployed
times
150 12%
10% underemployed
125 8%
by one generation
definition: 01/01/2000 == 100
6% or more
100 4%
12/31/05
12/31/10
12/31/11
12/30/12
12/30/13
12/31/14
12/31/06
12/31/07
12/30/08
12/30/09
12/31/15

3. House prices
EU and DE to be filled in later

4. House prices: a local market in eastern Germany
2000 Wegfall der steuerlichen Förderung
10%
1800 (~ 0.5 - 1 % pa, after tax, 9%
typ. Market reaction 1-2 years)
1600 8%
Finanzmarktpanik
1400 7%
Kaufpreis (€/m2)
1200 6%
1000 5%
800 4%
600 3%
Eigentums wohnung
400 sm Eigen wohn 2%
Rendite ETW
200 avg Hypo
1%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (avg Hypo)
0 0%
12/31/1997
12/30/2001
12/31/2011
12/31/2002
12/31/2003
12/31/2010
12/30/2012
12/30/2004
12/30/2005
12/31/2015
12/31/1998
12/31/1999
12/30/2000
12/31/2006
12/31/2007
12/30/2008
12/30/2009
12/30/2013
12/31/2014