Steven Spadijer delivered the 119th Annual Henry George Commemorative Dinner speech, dispelling the myth that oil prices were to blame for the 70's economic malaise. A raft of evidence is presented as Steven builds a case via Austrian economics, Minsky, Schumpeter.
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Leading Australian economist Leith van Onselen provides the 121st Annual Henry George Commemorative dinner presentation. The wide ranging discussion covers land and housing prices, bank lending, demographics and investment behaviour plus the commodity boom's influence on incomes and thus land prices.
What if the oil prices crashed just as they did in 2008? What if the Peak Oil Theory is flawed? What if gasoline will be much cheaper by 2013? What if this will not mean people will use more oil when it gets cheaper? What if this is THE beginning of the end for oil? You will only find out if you see it.
Austrian Business Cycle Theory - How Government Manipulation of Interest Rate...Graham Wright
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The two alternative theories of the business cycle are introduced:
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- And the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle (ABCT), which blames the cycle on government manipulation of interest rates.
The boom, bust and recession stages of the ABCT are analyzed in detail. It is concluded that government actions only prolong recessions and make them more severe. And the business cycle would not occur with interest rates determined on a free market.
In spite of all the artifices to neutralize the tendency of the fall of the rates of profit of the world capitalist system and the technological advance will not prevent its overthrow because the political and social cost would be immense for the humanity with its maintenance. Before its collapse in the 21st century, the world capitalist system will be ruined by economic depression for many years leading to the collapse of many businesses, mass unemployment on a planetary scale, the economic indebtedness of the heavily indebted nation states, and the rebellion of masses around the world.
In todayâs global economy, fears of inflation are front and center for many. This fear is driven by massive government stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, many market participants nowadays havenât experienced truly unhealthy levels of inflation and therefore arenât prepared to protect themselves against it.
In order to understand where this fear originates from and how one can better protect themselves from unhealthy levels of inflation, it is paramount that market participants and everyday individuals understand the ins and outs of inflation.
In this report, we break down inflation, elaborate on its causes and effects, discuss how central banks manage it, explain what it means for society, and lend insight into how anyone can protect themselves against it.
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The market process for allocating resources is introduced, and the effects of price controls, such as the minimum wage law, on resource allocation is examined.
Finally, the One Lesson and the theory of price controls is applied to the phenomenon of the boom-bust cycle, which is explained as a necessary consequence of government manipulation of interest rates.
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Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
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Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
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If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
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Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
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Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
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As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
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Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
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The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
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What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Dispelling OPEC oil prices as the cause of the 70's economic recession
1. 1
The Old, The New and the Ugly
119th
Annual Henry George Dinner
By Steven Spadijer
Georgist Insights Into Business Cycle:
Some Empirical Evidence
2. Structure of The Presentation
⢠Section I: THE THEORY
A. Georgist Perspective
B. Supplementary Perspectives
- The Post-Keynesians and Institutionalists (Minsky, Veblen)
- The Austrians (Schumpeter, Hayek)
⢠Section II: THE DATA
⢠What caused the 1970s Recession?
- Not the 1970s Oil Shocks
B. What caused the GFC?
- The âGeoAustrian Synthesisâ
C. Why Are There no âGreat Depressionsâ anymore?
⢠Some Concluding Remarks and Predictions
3. THE THEORY: George observed...
â...the speculative advance in land values...is the main cause of
those periodical industrial depressions [in] every civilized
country... I do not mean to say that there are not other
proximate causes. The growing complexity and
interdependence of the machinery of production, which makes
each shock or stoppage propagate itself through a widening
circle; the essential defect of currencies which contract when
most needed, and the tremendous alternations in volume that
occur in the simpler forms of commercial credit...the
protective tariffs which present artificial barriers to the
interplay of productive forces... But land speculation is the
âgreat initiatory cause...a fact..clearly evident in the United
States. In each period of industrial activity land values have
steadily risen, culminating in speculation which carried them up
in great heightsâ.
4. Minsky on âeuphoric expectationsâ...
ââŚStability is destabilisingâŚThe natural starting place for
analyzing the relation between debt and income is to take an
economy with a cyclical past that is now doing well⌠As the
period over which the economy does well lengthens, two things
become evident in board rooms. Existing debts are easily
validated and units that were heavily in debt prospered; it paid
to lever⌠Such a financial system will be capable of both
generating signals that induce an accelerating desire to invest
and of financing that accelerating investment... It follows
that the fundamental instability of a capitalist economy is
upward. The tendency to transform doing well into a
speculative investment boom is the basic instability in a
capitalist economy; we have self-fullfilling expectationsâ
5. But 100 years before this George also said...
â... THERE IS ANOTHER CAUSE, not yet mentioned, that must
be considered before we can fully explain the impact of
progress on the distribution of wealth. It is the confident
expectation that land values will increase in the future. The
steady increase of rent in all growing countries leads to
speculation - holding onto land for a higher price than it would
otherwise bring at that time. ....With rapid advancement, the
swift and steady increase of rent gives confidence togives confidence to
calculations of further increascalculations of further increase. It leads to land being
withheld from use, as higher prices are expectedas higher prices are expected. Thus, the
margin of production is forced out farther than required by
the necessities of production. As landowners confidently
expect rents to increase further, they demand more rent
than the land would provide under current conditionsâ.
6. Schumpeter asks of business cycles...
âWhy do entrepreneurs appear, not continuously, that is singly in
every appropriately chosen interval, but in clusters?
Exclusively because the appearance of one or a few
entrepreneurs facilitates the appearance of others, and these
the appearance of more, in ever-increasing numbers. For the
new demand ⌠is, directly and indirectly, chiefly a demand for
labor. Therefore employment must first increase and with it
the sum total of wages of labor, then the rate of pay and with
it the income of the individual worker. It is from this rise in
wages that the increased demand for consumption goods
proceeds which results in the rise in the general price levelâŚ
At the beginning of the boom costs rise in the old businesses;
later their receipts are reduced, first in those businesses
with which the innovation competesâŚâ
7. Schumpeter...
but then in all old businesses, in so far as consumers' demand
changes in favor of the innovation⌠outbreak of a crisisâ
panic, breakdown of the credit system, epidemics of
bankruptcies, and its further consequencesâ âŚSubjectively,
the turning point appears to producers, especially if they
resist the unavoidable fall in prices, as an outbreak of
hitherto latent overproduction, and the depression as its
consequence. The unsaleableness of commodities already
produced, still more of those producible, at prices which
cover costs calls forth the well known further phenomenon
of the tightness of money, possibly insolvency, which is so
typical that every theory of the business cycle must be in a
position to explain itâŚ
8. Hang on... These ideas sound similar...
HG observed: âDistinct and independent industrial communities,
[but which are] geographically or politically separated
communities, blend and interlace their industrial organizations
in different modes and varying measures... These seasons of
depression are always preceded by seasons of activity and
speculation, and on all hands the connection between the two
is admittedâthe depression being looked upon as the reaction
from the speculation, as the headache of the morning is the
reaction from the debauch of the night.... People want the
things the manufacturer makes as much as ever, just as the
operatives want the things the storekeeper has to sell. But
they do not have as much to give for them. Production has
somewhere been checked, and this reduction in the supply of
some things has shown itself in cessation of demand for
others...â
9. Hang on... These ideas sound similar...
âthe check propagating itself through the whole framework of
industry and exchange. Now, the industrial pyramid manifestly
rests on the land... The primary and fundamental occupations,
which create a demand for all others, are evidently those
which extract wealth from nature, and, hence, if we trace
from one exchange point to another, and from one occupation
to another, this check to production, which shows itself in
decreased purchasing power, we must ultimately find it in
some obstacle which checks labour in expending itself on
land...this explains the observation of overproduction and
overconsumptionâ
10. General Propositions that can be distilled...
- Presumption in Favour of endogenous causes of business
cycles: internal, not external causes of economic shocks
- Presumption that asset markets can affect commodity
markets (and thus unemployment) in several ways: (1) high
asset prices stimulate capital-intensive industries which
increase the demand for commodities (e.g. building or
construction equipment, through wealth effects, higher
personal disposable income); (2) in a downturn complimentary
industries collapse; (3) high vacancy rates, unsold goods and
commodities precipitates bankruptcies
- Presumption of inequality amid prosperity: high debt and high
rents belie the labour/working classes
11. Direct Impacts: Wealth Transfer Effect
Theory: âWealth transfer effectâ and âuncertainty effectâ
Reality: âPetro-dollarsâ mostly rrecycledecycled back in the US, UK and
Oz economy via new purchases in cars and real estate; surveys
show indifference toward oil shock
⢠8 billion went into purchasing âreal estate and other assets in
the UK and US aloneâ (Economic Report to the President,
1977)
⢠25% increase in car exports after oil shock (Olson, 1988)
⢠After oil shock general consumer surveys found indifference,
although irritation, on the impact of the oil shock; oil shock
and I expenditure do not correlate
⢠March 1974 survey by the ABS found only 21% of Australians
expected a recession (i.e. after oil shock)
⢠500 000 new jobs in the US petroleum sector
13. Direct Impacts: Hamilton (1988)
Theory: Reduction in demand for oil-intensive consumer
durables (particularly cars) caused output to fall
Reality: Durable consumption actually increased (e.g. Oz, UK) or
were falling well before the oil shock (e.g. US)
Barsky and Killian (2002, 2005, 2009, 2010)
14. Indirect Impacts: Bernanke (1998)
Theory: Inflation caused by the oil shock forced the central
bank to lift interest rates (IRs), halting growth
Reality: IRs were rising well beforebefore the oil shock hit and central
banks were explicitly targeting asset (and not simply
consumer/commodity price) inflation
Japan: Hit 7.25% in September from 5.25% from March â73,
peaking in 1974 at 9% (BOJ cited âproperty bubbleâ)
UK: Reached 11.5% in Sept. 73 (BOE cited âproperty bubbleâ),
peaking at 13% in October as the oil shock hit
US: Hit 12% before Oct 1973 and the Fed actually decreaseddecreased
interest rates after oil shock (Burns was more worried about
âcommodities and real estate speculationâ)
Aus: 4% to 9% from Jan to Sept 73 (Whitlam said of the rise in
IR that he âhoped this would stop the speculative rush into
land and property constructionâ)
15. Georgist: Oz, Japan, US and the UK
⢠Tax exemptions (Idle Land)
⢠Deregulation
⢠Population Growth
⢠Technology and Infrastructure
16. Georgist Perspective: Role of Expectations
⢠Progress and Poverty: Land speculation as the âgreat initiatory
causeâ of business cycles/downturns...
17. Georgist: Kakuei Tanakaâs Plan For Japan
⢠Commercial Land prices
http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/english/publication/mes/1989/me7-2-5.pdf
20. Oz Construction Sector
⢠NEW BUILDING SUPPLY (SYDNEY CBD)
⢠Mainline Gearing ($m), Year to 30/6
Years No. Of new buildings Gross Floor area
(sq. m)
1958-64
1965-70
1971-76
66
60
84
511 000
574 000
1 460 000
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Total Assets
Ext. Liabilities
Gearing (%)
4.8
4.0
83.3
16.7
13.0
77.8
26.9
17.8
66.1
34.1
25.1
73.6
65.6
50.5
77.0
21. Cambridge CreditâŚ
⢠Cambridge Gearing ratios ($m), Year to 30/6
In November-December 1973, Cambridge had their real-
estate assets re-valued and this suggested a surplus of $43
million after deducting intangible assets and providing for tax.
The reality of the estimates depended upon Cambridge being
able to realise and sell its land holdings, and at the value at
which they were assessed in the books. In 1974, neither was
possible. Their assets were illiquid. No one wanted to buy. Land
values slumped.
Years Current Borrowing Long-Term Borrowing
1971
1972
1973
2.74:1
2.89:1
3.48:1
4.79:1
4.96:1
9.58:1
22. Cambridge CreditâŚ
Cambridge Credit operated at a ridiculous gearing ratio. The
ratio of stockholders and shareholder funds to liabilities was
1: 6.4 as early as 1968 and had grown 1:7.85 in 1972. At the
time of its collapse, the ratio was 1:14.75. This extreme
gearing appeared to be matched by a respectable swelling of
assets over liabilities, the excess growing from $5.851 million
in 1968 to $21 million in 1971. However, in addition to balance-
sheet implications, Cambridge Credit had entered into
guarantees on loans worth $56.4 million on 31 December 1973.
There were, as well, enormous liabilities not listed on its
balance-sheet arising out of joint ventures, and the Melbourne
receiver claimed that $100 million of liabilities were cancelled
from account in this way. Cambridge was engaged in some 650
individual projects, only eight percent of which were wholly
owned by Cambridge.
23. Austrian Perspective: Hayek and Schumpeter
Hayek
⢠âcluster of business errorsâ in âhigh orderâ goods: e.g.
construction goods (âRound-aboutnessâ)
⢠A disequilibrium theory due to credit expansion; artificial,
policy induced boom
⢠Role of the price signal
Schumpeter
⢠âBranching outâ
⢠The Entrepreneur
⢠Complimentary sectors
⢠Oversupply, IRs
⢠Minsky and Schumpeter
24. Austrian: Overinvestment
⢠Arthur Burns (Chairmen of the Fed) put it well in 1975:
⢠Sure enough there were was a huge âoversupplyâ in commercial
property. Vacancy rates were as extreme as: Oz (37% in Syd
CBD); US (13-16 nationwide%); 35% UK
30. Austrian Perspective: Hayek and Schumpeter
⢠Empirical evidence: BOE paper found that construction and
complimentary, interrelated industries to housing sector
were mainly affected during UK recessions:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/quarterlybulletin/q
b960302.pdf
31. GFC
⢠Like the 1970s recession, GFC characterised by...
(a)High vacancy rates (15%+) and mass bankruptcies in the
residential and commercial property sectors...
(b) Mass unemployment in construction and manufacturing
sectors as well as and housing output....
(c) Exotic financial instruments
(d) World-wide real estate boom
32. Income and Employment Effects
⢠PDI did not fall for even one quarter; transfer payments
exploded just as the economy started to ârecoverâ
(1975:II-IV)
Year
(Quarterly)
Disposable Personal
Income
(Billions)
Total Government
Transfer Payment to
Individuals
(Billions)
Government Transfer
Payments á Disposable
Personal Income (%)
1973
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4) Recession start*
866.6
891.7
914.1
939.9
110.0
111.9
114.5
117.5
12.69
12.55
12.53
12.50
1974
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
953.8
968.2
996.1
1015.9
123.5
130.7
138.4
145.5
12.95
13.50
13.89
14.43
1975
(1) End (Recovery)*
(2)
(3)
(4)
1024.0
1081.7
1087.1
1114.4
157.7
169.4
172.4
175.2
15.40
15.66
15.96
15.72
33. Income and Employment Effects
⢠83% of recipients of transfer payments (in 1974-75) were
either to the retired (old age) or disabled (Vets)
⢠Food stamps, education infrastructure building also exploded:
quintessentially Keynesian âsocialisation of investmentâ
response to the 1973-74 recession.
35. Cash-flow Effects: Watch the Profits!
Sectors and Their Compositions 1972 1973 1974 1975
Households
Disposable Personal Income
Personal Outlays
Personal Savings (Surplus)
Business
Gross Internal Funds
Gross Private Investment
Deficit or surplus
Government
Federal gov. deficits or surplus
State gov. deficit or surplus
Total gov. deficit or surplus
Total surpluses
Total deficits
Discrepancy
Household savings as % of disposable
personal income
Business deficits as % of gross private
investment
801.3
-751.9
+49.4
131.3
-179.2
-47.9
-17.3
13.7
-3.6
49.4
-51.5
-2.1
6.08
26.73
903.1
-830.4
+72.7
141.2
-220.2
-79.0
-6.9
12.9
+6.0
78.7
-79.0
-.3
8.05
35.88
983.6
-909.5
+74.0
141.6
-209.5
-67.8
-11.7
8.1
-3.6
74.0
-71.4
+3.6
7.52
32.4
1076.8
-987.2
+89.6
174.8
-196.3
-21.5
-73.4
10.0
-63.4
89.6
-84.9
+4.7
8.92
10.95
Sectoral Surpluses and Deficits, 1972-75 (Billions of Dollars)
36. Cash-flow Effects: A Form of Corporatism?
⢠The difference between the downturns is corporate profits; in 1929, 1930,
1933 they were 10.1, 6.6 billion and 1.7 billion respectively. In 1974,
corporate profits were $83.6 billion, but in 1975 they rose to $95.9 billion!
⢠In 1930s the impact of government was not able to sustain profits and
therefore investment, but 1970s it sustained profits!
1929 1930 1933 1974 1975
Gross Private Investment
Government Deficit
Total
16.2
-.9
15.3
10.1
-.9
9.2
1.4
+1.3
2.7
229
+11
240
206
+69
275
Year GNP Gross Private
Investment
Federal Gov.
Outlays
% of GNP
Private Federal Gov.
1929
1933
1940
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
103.4
55.8
100.0
286.2
400.0
506.5
691.1
992.7
1549.2
16.2
1.4
13.1
53.8
68.4
75.9
113.5
144.2
206.1
2.6
4.0
10.0
40.8
68.1
93.1
123.8
204.2
356.6
15.7
2.5
13.1
18.8
17.1
15.0
16.4
14.5
13.3
2.5
7.2
10.0
14.3
17.0
18.4
17.9
20.6
23.0
37. Balance-Sheet Effects: Gov. Bonds
Sector 1972 1973 1974 1975
Households
Non Financial Corporations
State & Local Governments
.6
-2.4
-3.4
20.4
-1.8
-.2
14.5
3.5
-.1
-.9
16.1
-5.8
Total NFS 1.6 18.8 18.1 21.1
Commercial Banking
Savings and Loans
Mutual Saving Banks
Credit Unions
Life Insurance
Private Pension Funds
State and Local Gov. Ret. Funds
Other Investment Co.
6.5
4.3
1.4
.8
.3
1.0
-.6
-.4
-1.3
*
-.5
.2
.1
.6
.1
-.1
1.0
3.3
.1
.2
*
1.1
.6
-.3
30.3
11.1
3.6
1.9
1.3
5.4
1.7
-1.0
Total Financial Sector
Total
13.6
15.2
-.4
18.4
6.7
24.9
57.1
78.1
Total Private Domestic Acquisition of U.S. Gov. Securities, 1972-75
38. Balance-Sheet Effects: Fiat Currency
Sectors and Their Compositions 1972 1973 1974 1975
Net acqs. Of financial assets
Demand deposits + currency
Total Bank Credit
Credit-market securities
U.S. Gov securities
Direct
Agency issues
Other securities + mortgages
S&L Obligations
Corporate Bonds
Home mortgages
Other mortgages
Other cr. Excl. Security
Consumer Credit
Bank Loans
Open-market paper
Corporate Equities
Security Credit
Vault cash / member bank reserves
Other interbank claims
Miscellaneous assets
78.3
.2
75.4
70.5
6.5
2.4
4.1
25.7
7.2
1.7
9.0
7.8
38.4
10.1
28.5
-.2
.1
4.8
-1.0
1.4
2.3
100.2
.3
83.3.
86.6
-1.3
-8.8
7.6
25.9
5.7
.5
11.0
8.8
62.0
10.6
52.1
-.8
.1
-3.4
3.5
6.0
7.2
83.9
-.2
62.2
54.6
1.0
-2.6
3.6
19.1
5.5
1.1
6.5
6.1
44.5
2.8
39.5
2.2
-
-2.4
-3
7.1
15.0
32.9
*
27.8
26.6
30.3
29.1
1.2
6.4
1.3
2.1
1.9
1.2
-10.1
-.6
-12.9
3.4
-
1.2
1.0
-5.4
9.5
Commercial Banking: Net Acquisition of Financial Assets, 1972-75 ($ billions)
39. Observation for AustraliaâŚ
Industry Growth Growth Percent
Agriculture 20,503 5.7%
Mining 20,659 13.0%
Electricity -7,923 -5.5%
Construction 29,935 3.0%
Wholesale 11,759 3.0%
Retail -32,859 -2.7%
Accommodation & Food 49,279 6.9%
Transport -2,513 -0.4%
Information
Technology -7,753 -3.5%
Finance -1,982 -0.5%
Real Estate 23,287 13.4%
Professional 78,640 10.4%
Administration 15,609 4.4%
Education 28,853 3.6%
Health 47,060 4.0%
Arts -13,156 -6.2%
Other Services 17,641 4.0%
Total Victoria 109,894 4.1%
Total Australia 158,710 2.1%
Victorian Employment Growth by Industry March-December 2009
Industry Growth Growth Percent
Agriculture 8,026 9.8%
Mining 978 9.4%
Electricity -5,953 -16.9%
Construction -8,366 -3.7%
Wholesale 5,029 4.4%
Retail 22,724 7.8%
Accommodation & Food 996 0.6%
Transport -6,782 -4.7%
Information Technology -1,236 -1.9%
Finance 21,275 22.4%
Real Estate -1,631 -4.6%
Professional 24,157 12.2%
Administration 7,456 8.5%
Education 14,673 7.4%
Health 13,718 4.8%
Arts -2,276 -3.6%
Other Services -704 -0.7%
Total Victoria 70,005 2.6%
Total Australia 62,953 0.8%
43. Conclusion
⢠Donât listen to neo-classicalsâŚempirical data suggests there
should be a presumption against the claim that exogenous
âshocksâ are the primary cause of stagflationâŚâStagâ =
collapse of property/debt bubble; âflationâ = due to big
governmentsâ attempt in stabilising output
⢠Keynesianism saved the dayâŚeven though, as Minsky puts it,
âstagflation [was] the bitter price we pay to avoid a
depressionâŚâ
⢠History of Economic Thought is a more viable in exploring
the causes of stagflationâŚPerhaps a âsynthesisâ between the
Georgist, Austrian and Post-Keynesian schools is in order in
analyzing the endogenous dynamics of stagflationâŚ