2. SCHUMPETER
Senza innovazione il capitale non ha valore
Here it is important to understand Schumpeter’s theory of capital: if nothing
new happens in the world (innovations) capital is theoretically without
value. If we again look to the bookkeeping perspective – which is absolutely
necessary to understand financial crises – all investments in a
world without innovations could be covered by depreciation. The innovations
give value to capital. Capital in itself is sterile (cf. King Midas/the
buried talents) (Erik Reinert – Cannon Found. Tallin)
2
3. 3
Lo schema mostra come
la innovazione porta ad
una richiesta di credito
che inizialmente fa
crescere il reddito, ma
che arriva ad un punto in
cui il reddito non cresce
più la solvibilità
diminuisce il sistema va
in crisi (fonte eu)
4. THE MINSKY MOMENT Il sistema realizza che la quantità di debito non
potrà essere ripagata e inizia a svalutare
(higher default expectation higher svalutation)
Il sistema, non ha più la terra sotto i piedi (come nel cartone animato)
VISIONE NON CATRASTOFISTA DEL CAPITALISMO
Minsky argued, on the contrary, that capitalism had an innate tendency to both
cycles and crises. His argument focused not on capitalism’s weaknesses, but its
strengths: capitalism encourages risktaking and optimism, which in turn leads to
innovation that transforms both production and society itself
(Krugman - Princeton)
4
5. 5
LA STABILITA’ SPINGE ALLA
INSTABILITA’ E ALLA
FRAGILITA’
LA CRISI SI CHIUDE CON LA
LIQUIDITA’ DAGLI ELICOTTERI
(TANTA LIQUIDITA’ NEL
SISTEMA PERCHE’ NON
FALLISCA - E LA DEFLAZIONE
DELLA ECONOMIA REALE O
CON LA DEFLAZIONE
FINANZIARIA (FALLIMENTO
DELLE BANCHE)
6. 6
Secondo la analisi di Godwin il debito finanzia i
nuovi investimenti e fino ad un certo punto
continua ad aumentare e alimentare il nuovo
debito. In un primo momento si registrano
tensioni salariali o spinte inflazionistiche che
erodono il profitto e costringono le imprese a
vendere a minor prezzo. Il meccanismo peggiorà
al crescere dei fallimenti il sistema torna ai livelli
di occupazione precedente. La teoria economica
successiva ha evidenziato come il cerchio non
sarà perfettamente sovrapposto in ragione del
debito ma i due cerchi avranno una parte
comune e due ali “EFFETTO FARFALLA” , da sui è
scaturita la polemica che le farfalle causano le
tempeste
According to the analysis of Godwin debt
financing new investments and to a certain
extent it continues to rise and feed the new
debt. At first register wage or inflationary
tensions that erode profits and force companies
to sell at a lower price. The mechanism worsens
with increasing failures the system returns to
the previous employment levels. The next
economic theory has shown that the circle will
not be perfectly superimposed because of the
debt but the two circles shall have a common
part and two "BUTTERFLY EFFECT" wings, as on
the controversy has emerged that the
butterflies causing storms
7. 7
The cycle then repeats, since the slump reverses the income distribution dynamics
that the boom set in train. Falling aggregate demand leads to falling employment
and declining wage and materials costs, but at the same time the lower cash flows
after the crisis mean that actual debt servicing falls short of what was planned.
The recovery from the crisis thus leaves a residue of unpaid debt.
The profit share of output ultimately returns to a level that once again encourages
investment, but with a higher level of debt relative to GDP than before. Profits,
and capitalist expectations of future profit, have been restored, but with a lower
share of income going to workers (and raw material suppliers), offset by a larger
share going to bankers.
The next boom therefore sets out with a higher debt level, and the next, and the
next, until finally such a level of debt is taken on that declining wages and raw
material costs during the slump cannot offset the impact of debt servicing on
profits. Without bankruptcy, debt continues to compound forever. With
bankruptcy, debt is reduced, but at the cost of a diminished money supply as
well.
Profits do not recover, investment terminates, and the economy falls into a Great
Depression (Minsky, can it happen again ?)
