As part of the HEC Advanced Certificate in Aviation & Aerospace, research project has to be performed by team of 5 individuals working within the industry. The purpose of this document is to analyze the impacts of EU ETS regulation implementation on European passenger airlines' business model. After an explanation of the EU ETS mechanism applied to aviation, impacts on airlines business model framework categories are detailed, along with ways to address this issue and recommendations.

1. EXECUTIVE EDUCATION
EU ETS impacts on Airlines’ business
model
HEC – Advanced Certificate in Aviation & Aerospace
Pierre Bontems, Johann Panier, Franco Lanza,
Jorge Caro, Julien Gebel

2. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
2

3. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
3

4. Introduction: context & scope
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
ETS to Aviation
2008
Time
1992 1997 2007 2009 2012 2020
“Earth Summit” Kyoto “20-20-20” Copenhagen
Kyoto Protocol
EU Climate & Energy Package
Aviation accounts for only 2%
of total global CO2 emissions,
but these emissions have
increased by 87% since 1990
• The climate change is not a new concept: first alarms were raised in the early 60’s
• In 2007, the EU endorse the “Climate & Energy Package” having aggressive targets regarding
emissions reduction. The EU ETS is one of the enablers used to reach the targets
• In 2008, the EU has decided to impose a cap on CO2 emissions to aviation, leveraging on EU ETS
mechanism
4

5. Introduction: context & scope
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Scope of study and approach overview
• Study objective is the analysis of the EU ETS impact on major European PAX airlines’ business
model
• To reach this objective, a 3-step approach has been used, going from the understanding of the EU
ETS mechanism towards the presentation of possible airlines’ strategic answer
• Information gathering has been performed through research and stakeholders’ interviews
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6. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
6

7. EU ETS Overview
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Overview of EU ETS applied to aviation
Item Description
Item #1 The maximum allowed industry CO2 emission is determined based on the average fuel consumption 2004-2006 on all flights to and from
Europe
Item #2 The industry emission allowance (“cap”) is allocated among airlines by means of emission rights, based on their 2010 RTK share. The free
allowance benchmark should be published by 30th September 2011
Item #3 The start of the ETS is set at 1st of January 2012
Item #4 The number of aviation allowance to be created in 2012 is equal to 97% of 2004-2006 historic aviation emission (around 213 MT) and 95% of
2004-2006 historic aviation emission in 2013 (around 208 MT).
Item #5 82% of the cap will be offered as allowed free emissions until 2020. The remaining 3% will be allocated to a reserve for fast growing airlines
and new entrant to the market
Item #6 15% of the cap will be provided by auctioning
Item #7 For all emission exceeding the cap, emission rights have to be purchased on the market (CDM / JI / Airline industry / Other sectors)
Sources: Scheme is property of Mr. Albano, Head of Environment within Air France 7

8. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
8

9. EU ETS Impact Analysis
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
The airlines’ business model framework
• A business model can be defined as a tool used to describe the rationale of how an organization
creates, delivers and captures value
• Proposed business model framework provides a structured way to represent the core aspects of
the airline business, from a high level perspective
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10. EU ETS Impact Analysis
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Impacts identification & overview
• Interviews and research activity show that implementation of EU ETS induces several changes that
have been mapped on proposed airline business model framework
• Impacted areas are “Key Partners”, “Key Resources”, “ Activities & Value Proposition”, “Cost
Structure”, and “Revenue Structure”
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11. EU ETS Impact Analysis
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Impacts identification & overview
Area #1 – Key Partners Area #4 – Activities & Value
• Setup of new Joint Proposition
Ventures or Partnerships • Distortion of traffic and
• Increased collaboration carbon leakage
between Airports and • Change on airline
Ground Suppliers geographic coverage
coming from the
optimization of network
structure
Area #2 – Key Resources
• Optimized fleet
management to match
resource & requirement
• Fuel efficiency, biofuels,
and other alternative
energies
• Airport slots usage
optimization
Area #3 – Cost Structure Area #5 – Revenue Structure
• Increasing aircraft unitary cost • Additional revenues generated from the
• New charges as “Emission Allowance increase of PAX ticket prices
Acquisition”, “MRV & Trading costs”, and • Additional revenues coming from on-board
“Non compliance penalties” services
• Missed revenues due to increase competition
from non-EU airlines and traffic distortions
11

12. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
12

13. Way forward: possible airlines strategy
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
• Based on analysis results, Major European airlines will probably launch three different
streams of actions in order to mitigate the EU ETS implementation impacts:
• The stream 1 “Direct Transfer To Customer” corresponds to a short-term solution to face EU ETS
challenge
• The stream 2 “Structural Changes Implementation” aims at, on medium-term, mitigating the risk
related to revenue leakage due to air travel price increase
• The stream 3 “EU ETS principles generalization” aims at ensuring long-term sustainability
13

14. Way forward: possible airlines strategy
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
• Major European airlines will most probably transfer directly the EU ETS-related costs on the
customer
• As, as of today, carbon represent a very low portion of airlines’ costs (compared to fuel), the
price increase will not be perceived by the customer on the short term
• Thus, a clear understating of air travel price elasticity of demand is required
• it appears clearly that cost retransfer to customer
must be focused in priority on business travelers
(“Long-haul international business” and
“Short-haul business”) as the demand is less
elastic to price
• As carbon represents low portion of costs compared to fuel, airlines will consider transferring EU
ETS costs to customers
• Analysis of price elasticity of demand allow better targeting of customer segments to be charged
• This retransfer of costs must not be considered as definitive as air travel price will increase with
carbon costs and customers will start looking for alternative solutions
Sources: Department of Finance Canada: “Air Travel Demand Elasticities: Concepts, Issues and Measurement” 14

15. Way forward: possible airlines strategy
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
• On the medium term, to mitigate the risk related to revenue leakage due to air travel price
increase, major European airlines will have to identify and launch key programs:
• Based on the detailed analysis of the impacts performed in the previous sections, the following
three categories of actions can be considered by major European airlines:
 Actions related to carbon reduction
 Actions related to carbon compensation
 Other actions
15

16. Way forward: possible airlines strategy
EXECUTIVE
EDUCATION
Team 1 recommendations
• Mitigation actions can be mapped on the below quadrant after quick qualitative analysis:
• European airlines must address EU ETS considering cost retransfer (short-term) , “quick wins” &
“must dos” (medium-term)
• European airlines must work closely with international organizations to ensure that EU ETS
mechanism (or equivalent) is agreed and applied globally for long-term sustainability
• Overall industry must require transparency on the way funds from carbon credits are used
(invested in R&T projects that will benefit to the industry)
16

17. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
17

18. EXECUTIVE
Latest development
EDUCATION
European Level
• The EU ETS is fully compatible with international law, response issued by the EU highest
court on the 6th of October 2011: no breach of sovereignty, no discrimination
 The train is on its rail and will not move, according to Mr. Haas (EU)
Worldwide
• Airlines are urging the Federal Aviation Administration to accelerate the use of on-board
satellite-based for benefits of air-traffic control in order trim fuel costs, reduce pollution
and alleviate airport congestion
• NASA launched a prize for an electric plane capable of a 7000 miles range at mach 0,85,
target : 2025
• Air France launched its first eco flight with 50% biofuel from Paris to Toulouse
 Changes in the industry seem to happened
18

19. EXECUTIVE
Agenda
EDUCATION
• Introduction: context & scope
– History: climate change & path towards “green aviation”
– Scope of the study and approach overview
• EU ETS applied to aviation overview
• EU ETS impacts analysis
– The airlines’ business model framework
– Impacts identification & overview
• Way forward: possible airlines strategy
– A 3-stream strategy to face EU ETS challenges
– Zoom on Stream 1: Direct transfer to customer
– Zoom on Stream 2: Structural changes implementation
– Team 1 recommendations
• Latest developments
• Q&A
19

20. EXECUTIVE
Q&A
EDUCATION
Thank You!
EU ETS impacts on Airlines’ business
model
HEC – Advanced Certificate in Aviation & Aerospace
Pierre Bontems, Johann Panier, Franco Lanza, Jorge Caro, Julien Gebel
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