Healthy thinking
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A short introduction into why we should be careful to trust our intuition and how Critical Thinking and Scientific method helps us fight our flawed reasoning.
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Healthy thinking
- 3. PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE DRAW FAST CONCLUSIONS Principle of Least Effort = Not lets Google features and find out if it is in fact actual venomous
- 5. PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL FLAWED REASONING MENTAL MODELS Thinking typically has two flavours Fast | Unconscious | System One Slow | Conscious | System Two
- 7. Our tendency to search for, interpret, favour, and recall information in a way that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses Confirmation Bias The Backwards Brain Bicycle We can reprogram our minds but it can get quite difficult especially if it was internalized long ago
- 8. UNLIKELY THAT YOU WILL BE ABLE TO PREVENT THE EMOTIONS OR FEELINGS • BY TELLING A DIFFERENT STORY • PRINCIPLE OF CHARITY CURIOSITY Re-program your unconscious mind by using IF > THEN Triggers If I see make a business deal with a draw dropping gorgeous person I will make a conscious effort to double check every decision I make
- 9. Present two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options when in reality there are more. e.g. Nature vs nurture False Dichotomy Deliberate diversion of attention with the intention of trying to abandon the original argument. e.g. one political party proving another is incompetent as proof that they are better Red Herring Fallacy
- 10. We make fast judgements based on the first accessibility of information around it. I.e. the information that we see more often strongly influences our judgements. Availability Heuristic When a complex question gets substituted with an easier one. e.g. invest in x stock replaced with do I like x? Our brains sometimes change the question we are asking it when it feels cornered Intuitive Heuristics
- 12. Arbitrary Method (OLD) • Hit and miss ideas that does NOT build on each other. • Chaotic and disruptive growth directions Scientific Method (NEW) • Directing growth in a compounding manner • Critical processes and boundaries to ensure accuracy of knowledge
- 13. HYPOTHESIS CAN NEVER PROVE A THEORY FAVOUR THE MOST SIMPLEST EXPLANATION BURDEN OF PROOF
- 14. UNFALSIFIABLE/IRREFUTABLE CLAIMS ACCURACY VS PRECISION CORRELATION VS CAUSALITY UNDERDETERMINATION CONSIDER THE FACTS (PREMISE) THE SYNTHESIS (PRESENTATION) INDUCTIVE REASONING . DEBATES 'PRINCIPLE OF CHARITY ARBITER OF THE TRUTH TRUSTWORTHY AS ITS WEAKEST PART
- 15. The End.. We should develop a healthy level of distrust of our intuitive reasoning, take the difficult route of building defences around what we accept as knowledge and refine our mental models to help us continuously refine our reasoning.
- 16. More about the author… Marius is the CTO at Inoxico, he has lead various teams and projects both locally and internationally in developing enterprise software solutions. • LinkedIn - https://za.linkedin.com/in/mariusvrstr • Twitter Handle - @marius_vrstr • Emails – marius.vrstr@gmail.com / mariusv@inoxico.com • SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/MariusVorster
Editor's Notes
- 1. Why do we walk when we can run? Relate physical idle mode of existence with mental idle state 2. The world is complex, survival favour making fast shoot-from-the-hip decisions over being pedantic WHAT DO YOU DO IF YOU FIND A BRIGHT COLOURED SNAKE IN YOUR BED?
- Choose one of 3 (Inside 2 colours 2xBlue and 1xRed) Ask for volunteer Make them choose one object (66,6,% chance of being wrong) Make them step back (Look at their cup and give it a name – Endowment effect) In the remaining two remove one of the double colours (Do not show colour) As if they want to change their initial first choice for the remaining item (50% chance of being wrong) Most people will keep the item they already chose although that is statistically a bad move. Some flowers (Kinetic involvement) Explain the voting rules of the game (Flat raised hand as Agree / Raised fist as Don’t agree) Sample statement: We should be getting off earlier on Friday’s. [Prime + Intuitive Heuristic] Give the FIRST INSTINCTUAL ANSWER ON BELOW Actual question: Some flowers fade quickly, a rose is a flower therefore roses fade quickly Most people will first feel that it make sense although the reasoning is flawed (Some flowers subset does not guarantee roses to be as well) Establish that our intuitive responses can be manipulated and should not trusted.
- Example of a cognitive bias, these are difficult to overcome (neural training over years like e.g. riding a bike). List of common cognitive biases https://www.thejobnetwork.com/20-cognitive-biases-that-screw-up-your-decisions/
- Some ways of fighting the effects of having biases
- First Step: Learn to identify the patterns in your own and other peoples reasoning Do not allow yourself to be tricked, recognize it for what it is. A flawed statement. List of common fallacies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
- Proximity to stories form how we contextualize information. Bungy jumping – My brothers friend was involved with an accident and even though it is more dangerous statistically to drive every day I feel that bungy jumping is more dangerous When answering a difficult question: Which stocks should I invest in easily becomes which stocks is well known? List of common heuristics https://examples.yourdictionary.com/examples-of-heuristics.html