Systems thinking to address deforestation

1. SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SCIENCES
GRADUATE RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT
AGRC 7617
Applying systems thinking to understand deforestation
in the Central Highlands in Vietnam
HOANG YEN PHAM
School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management
Faculty of Science
The University of Queensland
WORD COUNT: 9,141
May 2013

2. 2
Statement of authorship
The research carried out in the course of this investigation and the results presented in
this report are, except where acknowledged, the original work of the author, and all
research was conducted during the program.

3. 3
Acknowledgement
I would like to extend my gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Carl Smith, School of
Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland for his enthusiastic
guidance, instruction and encouragement at every stage of my research project.
I would like to thank the Australian Agency for International Development for providing
me the scholarship to pursue the Master of Environmental Management.
Many thanks also go to Dr. Thanh Van Mai for sharing his knowledge, Christopher
Howard for his help with language editing and Carole Jilek for her support during my
studies.

4. 4
Abstract
Deforestation is a complex problem with multiple and interrelated drivers that come from
different sectors. These drivers interact to produce dynamic behavior that cannot be explained
with a simple linear models or even statistical correlations.
The aims of this research were to identify drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of
Vietnam, explain the interactions among these, and discuss the potential effects of current
forest-related policies, including their unintended consequences, and interventions that may
improve deforestation management.
Using systems thinking, this research developed a conceptual model of deforestation in the
Central Highlands that captures the dynamic interrelationships and feedbacks among various
system components. The results highlight the failures of current policies to address the
deforestation problem. These include migration and agricultural expansion policies,
hydropower policies and afforestation policies that have been exacerbated deforestation.
Deforestation is being driven by reinforcing processes, so in order to properly tackle the
problem, a suite of policies aimed at weakening these processes is required. They include
advanced farming techniques that reduce land demand and provide alternatives to slash and
burn agriculture, developing alternative energy sources rather than hydropower, strengthening
programs on forest protection in combination with afforestation and reforestation, enhancing
forest fire prevention, implementing alternative livelihood programs to alleviate poverty, and
introducing measures to restrict unsustainable timber extraction. It is argued that these
interventions should be implemented simultaneously because none of them are silver bullets
that will adequately address the dynamics of deforestation on their own.

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Table of Contents
Abstract................................................................................................................................................3
List of figures......................................................................................................................................6
List of tables .......................................................................................................................................6
I. Introduction....................................................................................................................................7
1.1. Background .......................................................................................................................................... 7
1.2. Research problem.............................................................................................................................. 8
II. Research significance and aims..............................................................................................9
III. Literature review.................................................................................................................... 10
3.1. Deforestation models......................................................................................................................10
3.2. Drivers of deforestation in Vietnam..........................................................................................14
3.3. Forest policies in Vietnam.............................................................................................................16
IV. Research methodologies ...................................................................................................... 16
V. Systems model of deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam .................. 19
5.1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................19
5.2. Behaviour over time........................................................................................................................21
5.3. Causal loop diagrams......................................................................................................................22
5.3.1. Final conceptual model of deforestation........................................................................................25
5.3.2. Analysis of key loops...............................................................................................................................28
5.4. Leverage points and intervention strategies .........................................................................33
VI. Discussion and conclusions................................................................................................. 37
References........................................................................................................................................ 40

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List of figures
Figure 1: Forest cover change in Vietnam from 1943 to 2009 ..................................................... 9
Figure 2: The five phases of the modelling process ........................................................................17
Figure 3: The Central Highlands in Vietnam......................................................................................21
Figure 4: Behaviour over time of some key variables in the deforestation system in the
Central Highlands................................................................................................................................22
Figure 5: The forest transition curves: shape (A) and rationale (B).........................................23
Figure 6: The process of deforestation……....………………………………………………………………24
Figure 7: The primary conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands.........24
Figure 8: The final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands ................26
Figure 9: Population growth and agricultural expansion loops.................................................29
Figure 10: The interrelationship between poverty and deforestation....................................30
Figure 11: Infrastructure development loops ...................................................................................31
Figure 12: Logging motive loop...............................................................................................................32
Figure 13: Forest resource depletion loops .......................................................................................33
Figure 14: ‘Limit to growth’ system archetype .................................................................................34
Figure 15: ‘Shifting the burden’ system archetype..........................................................................35
Figure 16: ‘Fixes that fail’ system archetype......................................................................................36
Figure 17: ‘Tragedy of the commons’ system archetype...............................................................37
List of tables
Table 1: Positive feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands..........27
Table 2: Negative feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands........28

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I. Introduction
1.1. Background
Deforestation and forest degradation have been an issue of great concern due to their
contribution to global warming, biodiversity loss, soil degradation and desertification, and
threats to ecosystem services, livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people
(Mahapatra and Kant, 2005, Turner et al., 2001, Barbier and Burgess, 2001, Angelsen and
Kaimowitz, 1999). During the 1980s, there was a loss of over 15 million hectares of tropical
forests every year (FAO, 1993 in Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999)). This led to a wide range
of policies to halt deforestation and thus, the annual forest loss declined to about 12 million
hectares from 1990 to 1995 (FAO, 1997 in Mahapatra and Kant (2005)). However, forest
areas in tropical regions have continued to decrease. This decline indicated that forests are
valued for short-term economic benefits rather than their long-term contribution to the
environment.
The history of humans is the history of deforestation. Human societies are closely associated
with forests since they provide food, fuels and ecosystem services that improve the quality of
life. Nowadays, nearly 1.6 billion people on the planet are entirely dependent on forests for
their livelihoods and cultural values (FAO, 2011, Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). During the past
two decades, global economic growth reached USD 70 trillion, a three-fold increase during
the period (FAO, 2011). However, along with rapid economic growth, natural resources
including forest resources have been over-exploited, causing numerous environmental
problems and serious consequences on the socio-economy. The decline in forests is mainly
the result of conversion of forestland for agricultural expansion and infrastructure
development (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). During the last decade, nearly 13 million hectares
of global forests each year were converted for other land uses (FAO, 2011). The important
underlying drivers of deforestation include increasing population, economic growth and
poverty, which lead to growing demands for agricultural land and forest products and
infrastructure development. These drivers, along with weak governance in forest protection
and management have put more pressure on forest areas.
Recent efforts in afforestation and reforestation have decreased the deforestation rate globally
(FAO, 2012). However, there is still forest loss in many regions, particularly in the tropics.
Policy makers have largely relied upon technical solutions such as afforestation and
reforestation programs but such programs are not adequate to control the disappearance of
tropical forests (Saxena, 1997). Plantation programs were developed but they could not
provide a variety of use and non-use benefits as produced by natural forests such as

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biodiversity conservation, carbon storage and watershed protection (Barbier and Burgess,
2001). Protection and restoration of natural forests are therefore of crucial importance.
However, sustainable forest policies and practices can only be effective when the process
causing deforestation is well explained. It is necessary to understand not only direct drivers
but also underlying socio-economic factors influencing deforestation and their interactions as
a whole system so that effective forest policies can be developed.
1.2. Research problem
Accounting for 40% of the total land area and being rich in biodiversity, forests play a vital
role in poverty reduction, socio-economic development and environmental sustainability in
Vietnam (VNFOREST, 2013). Forest in Vietnam is among the highest biodiversity in the
world because of its abundant native wild animals and plant species (UN-REDD, 2011b).
There are approximately 25 million people, including 12 million ethnic minority people living
in forests (UN-REDD, 2011a). The country has encountered numerous problems in
sustainable forest management and development due to challenges of balancing
environmental, social and economic benefits.
Vietnam lost about half of its forest cover between 1943 and 1990, from 14.3 million hectares
to 9.2 million hectares, 43% and 27.2% of the total land area, respectively (VNFOREST,
2013). Since then, the Government has made substantial efforts to recover its forest cover. As
a result, forests have increased by approximately 2% per year (UN-REDD, 2011a). The total
forest cover in Vietnam in 2009 was 13.3 million hectares or 39.1% of the total land area
(UN-REDD, 2011a) (Figure 1). However, this trend is mainly the result of rapid growth in
plantation forests. Despite the increase in the forest area, deforestation and forest degradation
still occurs, particularly in the Central Highlands. It is estimated that the deforestation rate in
Vietnam is the second highest in the world after Nigeria (FAO, 2005 in UN-REDD (2011a)).
Besides, the quality and biodiversity of natural forests are continuously fragmented and
degraded. Nearly 70% of natural forests appear to be in poor quality (VNFOREST, 2013).
The Central Highlands has experienced the highest rate of deforestation in the country (FCPF,
2011). Approximately 206,000 hectares of forests (20% of the forest area) disappeared from
2005 to 2012 (Tan and Trang, 2013). Much of this disappearance is the result of forestland
conversion for rubber plantation and hydropower construction (Dinh, 2005). In addition,
illegal logging appears to be out of control because of weak governance in forest protection
and management (Pham et al., 2012).

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Figure 1: Forest cover change in Vietnam from 1943 to 2009
(Source: DOFP (2011))
This serious loss of forests causes numerous concerns because the Central Highlands is home
to a large proportion of the ethnic minority communities who are spiritually and culturally
associated with forests and heavily depend upon forests for their survival (FCPF, 2011).
Besides, forests in the Central Highlands play a vital role in biodiversity conservation,
prevention of soil erosion and watershed protection for the surrounding areas (Hoan, 2013).
It is generally acknowledged that deforestation is driven by multiple and dynamic factors that
are not likely to be addressed in the forestry sector alone. Its causes and drivers come from
other sectors such as agriculture and infrastructure development and they are interrelated and
interact (Saxena, 1997). Initially, several causes or relationships may be dominant but they
may change their behaviour over time (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Deforestation therefore,
is a complex and dynamic process, which cannot be explained with a simple linear approach.
This research project demonstrates that effective forest policies and management practices
can only be developed using systems approaches.
II. Research significance and aims
Forests in the Central Highlands play an important role in livelihood improvement, poverty
reduction and job creation. With the current rapid economic growth rate and growing demand
for timber and forest products in domestic and global markets, it is challenging to stabilize
and increase the forest cover. Vietnam is considered among the countries most vulnerable to
climate change with serious impacts on the forest sector. Addressing deforestation is therefore

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a key to mitigate and adapt to climate change and a significant contribution to sustainable
socio-economic development of the country.
However, deforestation is a complex process with multiple and interconnected drivers that
root in various sectors (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). These drivers interact in dynamic
relationships that need to be explained with a holistic approach. The aims of this research
project are therefore to: (i) identify drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of
Vietnam, (ii) explain the interactions of these drivers, and (iii) discuss the potential effects of
current forest-related policies, including their unintended consequences and interventions that
may improve policy performance.
To achieve these aims, three major research questions to be addressed are identified:
(i) What are the drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam?
(ii) How do these drivers interact?
(iii)What are the potential effects of current forest-related policies?
To deal with the complexity of the system, systems thinking methods are employed. By
applying these methods, this project aims to explain the root causes of deforestation and the
feedback mechanisms that control deforestation.
III. Literature review
3.1. Deforestation models
Economists have paid attention to analyses of tropical deforestation since the mid-1980s
(Barbier and Burgess, 2001). Many approaches to analyze deforestation have been developed
in the last decade (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Instrumental ways can be employed to
investigate the proximate factors of deforestation (such as logging and cash cropping)
whereas structural ways examine underlying or ultimate causes of deforestation (Hirsch,
1999). One popular method is to list factors and develop quantitative analysis, using
regression approach for example, to examine the effects of those factors on forest loss (Rudel,
1998 in Hirsch (1999)). Regression analysis is employed in most empirical models; primarily
using the standard ordinary least squares (OLS) method. It has been used in a large number of
studies in about 50 countries across Latin America, Africa and Asia to explore the causes of
tropical deforestation (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). However, they were unable to deal with
autocorrelation problems, causing the decline in variables below statistically acceptable levels
(Scrieciu 2007 in McCarthy and Tacconi (2011)).

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Another model is to use structural analysis to investigate the interests in forest values among
various stakeholders so that analytical connection of ultimate and proximate causation is built
(Hirsch, 1999). Structural approaches often require an insight of the socio-economic, political
and ecological contexts where deforestation occurs (Hirsch, 1999). Besides, historical
analysis on forest cover change is employed in some cases to explain deforestation. Scales of
the analyses vary from local through national to global and thus, such analyses are generally
holistic.
Mahapatra and Kant, in one of their studies, used a multi-nominal logistic model to explore
the causes of deforestation (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Deforestation is not only driven by
the direct causes such as agricultural expansion and forest product consumption and export,
but also the underlying causes like population growth and economic growth that influence the
direct causes. The authors developed a model that incorporates explanatory variables (the
underlying causes) that originate from demographic, macroeconomic, agriculture,
infrastructure and political sectors (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). With the hypothesis that
explanatory variables may produce positive (increase in deforestation) and negative effects
(decrease in deforestation) through different mechanisms, these dual effects of each variable
were included in the model (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). That partly helps to overcome
shortcomings in some previous models when the direct and the underlying causes are used in
combination as explanatory variables that lead to incorrect results and misspecification of the
model (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Multinomial logistic models also produce more
informative and robust results than the binary logistic and the ordinary least squares methods
(Mahapatra and Kant, 2005).
In a review on the causes of tropical deforestation, Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999)
synthesized the results of over 140 economic models and built a conceptual model to serve
their analysis (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). Three different levels are used to analyze
deforestation including: sources (agents of deforestation), immediate causes (decision
parameters such as institutions, infrastructure, markets and technology) and underlying causes
(macroeconomic variables and policy instruments) (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). These
three levels are clearly distinguished since microeconomic models tend to address the
immediate causes while macroeconomic models focus on the underlying causes. Besides, the
immediate causes are mainly determined by the underlying causes, and by sources of
deforestation (agents). Thus, a clear distinction between these levels is needed to avoid
confusing the causal relationships that are involved in this process (Angelsen and Kaimowitz,
1999).

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Recent studies have focused on economic modeling approaches to investigate in much more
detail the underlying causes that influence deforestation and land use in tropical countries.
New methods like spatial analysis were introduced to demonstrate geographical factors in
understanding forestland use patterns (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). Simulation models at the
microeconomic level mainly used the linear approach while at the macroeconomic level are
computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). CGE
models have been widely employed to understand economic and policy impacts on
deforestation and agricultural development (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). To date, macro-level
models, particularly empirical models at cross-country level are the most popular tools for
modeling the economics of deforestation. But it has an unaddressed problem. This is related
to “one-way hypothesis of the effect of causal variables on deforestation” (Mahapatra and
Kant, 2005).
There are also a large number of studies analyzing the socio-economic factors influencing
deforestation, mainly focusing on macro-economic variables at global or regional levels. The
Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model has been used to explain the relationships
between economic development (per capita income) and deforestation (McCarthy and
Tacconi, 2011). This model hypothesized that environmental quality gets worse as per capita
income increases until it reaches a critical transition point (Stern, 2004 in McCarthy and
Tacconi (2011)). However, EKC hypothesis has seemed not to be supported so far (Stern,
2004 in McCarthy and Tacconi (2011)) as it has produced mixed results (McCarthy and
Tacconi, 2011).
Several studies on deforestation were conducted at country and cross-country levels. These
studies examine the economic causes of deforestation based on statistical analyses of factors
influencing deforestation across tropical countries (Barbier and Burgess, 2001).
Besides, some other models are also employed including the Competing Land Use Models,
exploring the relationship between natural forest protection and agricultural conversion, the
Forest Land Conversion Models, dealing with the decisions on conversion of forested land of
agricultural households and the Institutional Models at country and cross-country levels,
focusing on institutional factors influencing deforestation such as property rights, land use
conflicts and political stability (Barbier and Burgess, 2001),.
As indicated above, many deforestation models have been developed to investigate the
process of deforestation. By the late 1990s, there were more than 150 models of deforestation
being developed (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). In general, economic models can be
employed to explore factors influencing land use and deforestation in tropical countries and in

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fact, they can explain some of general trends of deforestation. However, it appears that these
models still lack regional or local features, particularly specific causes of deforestation in a
specific region or country (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). Deforestation is not a homogenous
process (Lambin and Geist, 2003) but dynamic and complex with causal relationships among
its factors (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Causes of deforestation cannot be generalized at
global level but must be country specific (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011).
Integrative approaches were used in developing models to understand the dynamics of
deforestation and other land-cover changes, such as in the southern Yucatan peninsular region
(Turner et al., 2001) and the Brazilian Amazon (Garcia et al., 2007). Garcia et al. (2007)
developed a model that integrates different levels of socioeconomic organization of
municipalities for the Brazilian Amazon to predict deforestation, including five components
that influence the mobility of deforestation: population, economic development, agrarian
infrastructure, agricultural and timber production and social development (Garcia et al.,
2007). In the southern Yucatan peninsular region project, the project developers tried to build
models that incorporate ecological, social and remote sensing sciences to monitor and predict
forest cover change under various assumptions (Turner et al., 2001).
In another study, Saxena and Nautiyal (1997) found that linear methods, such as statistical
techniques using the correlation and regression analyses were not useful in explaining
complex systems like deforestation (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). This is because such
methods ignored the feedback mechanisms between the factors influencing deforestation. In
statistical regression, the process of deforestation is analyzed on a factor-by-factor basis and
the causal relationships between factors were neglected (Saxena, 1997). Thus, policy
interventions recommended in these analyses appeared to be incomplete and ineffective.
Saxena and Nautiyal (1997) investigated deforestation at systems level, using a systems
dynamic approach to serve their analysis (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Since the systems
approach specifies the interrelationships between constituent elements of the system, it can
reveal the dynamic behavior of that system. It is hypothesized that the relationships between
various causes of deforestation can be linear or non-linear. A systems approach is useful to
incorporate all drivers of deforestation into one coherent framework that captures the
interactions among those causal factors (Saxena, 1997).
In summary, there were three main categories of approaches to the analysis of deforestation:
descriptive (e.g. structural analysis), theoretical (e.g. multi-nominal logistic) and empirical
(e.g. CGE models). These approaches identified numerous causes of deforestation, but they
either ignored the interactions between factors that directly influence or contribute to

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deforestation or missed the dynamic links between forest systems with other socio-economic
systems (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997).
The dynamics of deforestation are complex. The deforestation process is an outcome of the
interactions between the forest (bio-physical) and socio-economic systems and thus, the
causal relationships among factors are of crucial importance. Therefore, it is necessary to
apply a systems approach in understanding its complex proximate and underlying causes and
investigating dominant relationships so that effective policy intervention can be determined.
3.2. Drivers of deforestation in Vietnam
The drivers of deforestation and their underlying causes are multiple and highly complex
(Pham et al., 2012). They have changed throughout the course of the country’s history. For
example, much of the forest loss between 1943 and 1993 was due to war and the expansion of
agricultural areas by people from the lowlands migrating into the upland forested areas (Pham
et al., 2012). More recently, rapid economic growth and increasing demands for forest
products and agricultural land driven by population growth and migration are factors driving
change to Vietnam’s forests (FCPF, 2011). Besides, drivers of deforestation also differ from
region to region (Pham et al., 2012). Most forest loss in the North has largely been the result
of land conversion for crop production, while in the Mekong Delta in the South, it has been
converted to shrimp farms and aquaculture (Pham et al., 2012). In the uplands, large areas of
forest were lost due to land conversion for commercial and perennial crops (Pham et al.,
2012).
Currently, the main direct drivers of deforestation are generally agreed by the Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development to be the result of: (1) Conversion to agricultural land
(mainly for industrial perennial crops); (2) Unsustainable logging (particularly illegal
logging); (3) Infrastructure development (notably for hydropower installation); and (4) Forest
fires (FCPF, 2011, UN-REDD, 2010).
Land conversion to agricultural land
During the past five years, about 25,000 hectares of forestland was lost each year due to
conversion to other land uses (DOFP, 2010). Much of this conversion was the result of
farmland expansion. Vietnam becomes one of the leading exporters of agricultural
commodities in the world with its high export productivity in coffee, cashew, pepper,
shrimps, rice and rubber (FCPF, 2011). The expansion of industrial crops has increased
considerably during the recent years, from 1.3 million hectares in 2005 to 1.9 million hectares
in 2008 (Pham et al., 2012). The Central Highlands and the Southeast have experienced the

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highest rate of deforestation mainly due to this recent expansion (FCPF, 2011). Some of the
agricultural policies have supported a large-scale expansion of industrial crops such as rubber
and coffee, leading to considerable forest disappearance. Between 1990 and 2000, coffee
areas in the Central Highlands grew from 50,000 to 500,000 hectares (FCPF, 2011).
Unsustainable logging
Unsustainable logging, including legal logging (licensed exploitation, usually takes place in
production forests) and ‘informal’ logging (unlicensed exploitation in natural forests) is
perceived as the main cause of forest degradation (Pham et al., 2012). This is primarily the
result of poor management practices and illegal logging activities (FCPF, 2011). Growing
demands for raw materials for paper production, mining and timber export has mainly driven
large-scale encroachment into natural forests. Between 1983 and 1993, there was a loss of
80,000 hectares of natural forests to supply the Bai Bang Paper Company (MARD, 2008).
More than 25,000 violations of state regulations with respect to unlicensed logging were
reported in 2009 (FCPF, 2011).
Infrastructure development
Incomplete infrastructure has restrained the economic growth of Vietnam. Therefore, the
Government has encouraged investment in infrastructure development, mostly in road
building and dam construction. As a result, large areas of forests have been destroyed. For
example, over 15,000 hectares of natural forests were lost due to the establishment of dams
along Dong Nai River (FCPF, 2011). Moreover, the installation of hydropower plants in the
uplands has led to the resettlement of a large proportion of residents who have no other choice
than to clear the forests for their subsistence.
Forest fires
Fire in forests is mainly the result of slash-and-burn practice, hunting and honey and wood
collecting by people in the uplands. It is estimated that over 6 million hectares of the
country’s forests is vulnerable to fire (Pham et al., 2012). During the period of 1992-2002,
there were about 6,000 hectares of forests being destroyed each year due to fires.
It is acknowledged that the indirect causes of deforestation in Vietnam involve increasing
demands for forest resources and agricultural products and economic growth (FCPF, 2011,
Pham et al., 2012). An important underlying factor driving agricultural expansion is
population growth that leads to growing demands for food, fuel and forest products. Vietnam
has experienced a rapid and substantial increase in its population during the past decades.
Besides, resident distribution is not equal throughout the country, with high densities in the

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Red River Delta in the North and the Mekong River Delta in the South. To cope with that, a
series of policies on rural resettlement and new economic zone establishment were developed
during the period of 1990-2000 with the aim of encouraging migration to the uplands. This
migration put more pressure on forest areas as new migrants often convert forested land to
produce food for their survival (FCPF, 2011, Pham et al., 2012). Besides, a growing demand
for timber to make inexpensive furniture has led to the illegal extraction of wood in the
country. Vietnam has become one of the largest wood exporters in the world (FCPF, 2011). In
addition, some of the existing forest policies have unintentionally opened up opportunities for
illegal wood extraction. Weak land administration, particularly the corruption in forestland
allocation and poor governance of forests at the local level has led to further deforestation in
many parts of the country.
3.3. Forest policies in Vietnam
It appears that no strong policies were in place for forest protection in Vietnam before 1990.
In recognition of serious consequences of forest resource depletion, a series of policies were
introduced with the aim of increasing the overall forest cover in the country. The first major
policy initiative was the “National Target Program for Re-greening the Barren Hills and
mountains” (1992), which was replaced by the “Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program”
(1998). The objectives of these programs are to restore the protection and special-use forests.
The later Program “Support for Development of Forest Plantations in the period of 2007-
2015” focuses on production forests and aims to reduce pressure on natural forests. The goal
of these programs is to achieve 43% of forest cover of the total land area by 2015 (FSIV,
2009). Subsequently, the “Forest Protection and Development Strategy in the period of 2006-
2020” and a series of new laws on forest protection and development were also introduced to
establish a legal basis for forest protection. In general, as a result of these programs, the trend
of deforestation has been reversed. There was an increase of 30% of forest cover between
1990 and 2009 (FCPF, 2011). However, deforestation still occurs in some areas of the country
at high levels, which reflects the ineffectiveness of current forest policies. This will be
discussed in detail in Section V.
IV. Research methodologies
Today, systems thinking and system dynamics approaches have been increasingly used to
understand and manage the complexity of social, economic and environmental systems (Le et
al., 2012). By incorporating all components of the system, these methods produce a holistic
approach to complex and ambiguous systems (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Bosch et al., 2007).

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Based on the consideration of the ‘whole’ system and of relationships of the constituent
elements, they enable detecting the root causes of the problem rather than just focusing on the
symptoms (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). Moreover, systems thinking and system
dynamics enable generating solution options to improve the situation (Maani and Cavana,
2007) and testing the potential effects of intervention strategies before applying them in
reality (Sherwood, 2002). Policy measures are thus evaluated and improved.
As mentioned earlier, deforestation is a complex and dynamic system and thus, systems
thinking and system dynamics approaches should be employed to investigate the root causes
and the feedback processes in that system. Within this research, systems thinking methods are
applied as the overall methodology to develop a conceptual model so that the drivers of
deforestation and their interactions can be identified and well explained. The research is
developed based on the existing literature and through discussions and consultation with
relevant people.
“Modelling is an iterative process” (Sterman, 2000). The systems thinking and modelling
process includes five main phases: Problem articulation; Formulation of a dynamic
hypothesis, Formulation of a simulation model; Testing; and Policy design and evaluation
(Figure 2). Each phase includes a number of steps but not all phases as well as steps are
compulsorily required (Maani and Cavana, 2007). It is the modellers’ decision to follow
phases, depending on the problems they are facing. The focus of this research is on the first
two phases (Problem articulation and Formulation of a dynamic hypothesis) that will be
described in the following section.
Problem articulation
Dynamic hypothesis
Simulation model
Testing
Policy design and
evaluation
Figure 2: The five phases of the modelling process
(Adapted from Sterman (2000))

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Problem articulation
This phase allows the identification of the real problem, the purpose of model development
and main variables operating in the system, by focusing on the following questions:
(1) What are the problems that need to be addressed? Why is it a problem?
(2) What are root causes of the problems?
(3) What are the key variables that need to be considered?
(4) How far into the future and back into the past should the problems be considered?
(5) What is the historical behaviour of the key variables?
(Sterman, 2000, Mai, 2013).
By seeking the answers for these questions, the modeller will be able to define the real
problem of concern and clarify the purpose of their model that formulate a basis for a
successful model.
Behaviour over time
Behaviour over time (BOT), which is also known as ‘reference mode behaviour’ is a useful
tool of systems thinking to represent the trend and variation of a variable over an extended
period in the form of a graph or charts (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). A BOT graph
includes the horizontal axis representing time and the vertical axis representing the
performance indicator of interest (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Using BOT helps to capture the
underlying dynamics present in the system (Maani and Cavana, 2007).
Formulation of dynamic hypothesis
This phase aims to design a dynamic hypothesis that explains the BOT of the system
(Sterman, 2000). It involves the ‘initial hypothesis generation’ that determines the current
theories of behaviour and the ‘endogenous focus’ that formulates dynamic hypotheses
explaining the dynamics of the system through the interaction of its variables (Sterman,
2000). There is a range of techniques that help in formulating a dynamic hypothesis, such as
model boundary chart, subsystem diagrams, causal loop diagrams, stock and flow maps and
policy structure diagrams. Within this research, causal loop diagrams are used to represent the
causal links among the variables in the system (e.g. factors driving deforestation).
Causal loop diagrams
A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a flexible tool to reveal the causal relationships among the
variables in a system (Sterman, 2000, Maani and Cavana, 2007). By capturing hypotheses
about the causes of the problem or the mental models of individuals or groups, a CLD is a
useful tool to represent the feedback mechanisms within a system (Sterman, 2000). CLDs

19. 19
consist of variables (factors) connected by arrows (links) that show the causal relationships
between variables (Maani and Cavana, 2007). An arrow can be labelled as ‘+’ when two
variables move in the same direction or ‘-’ when they move in opposite directions (Maani and
Cavana, 2007). In other words, a positive link means that the cause and effect variables move
up and down together while a negative link indicates that if the cause variable moves up, the
effect variable will move down and vice versa (Sterman, 2000, Maani and Cavana, 2007).
There are two types of feedback loops represented in a CLD: Reinforcing (R) or positive
feedback loops and Balancing (B) or negative feedback loops (Maani and Cavana, 2007).
Reinforcing loops represent a growing or declining action whereas balancing loops seek a
goal or an equilibrium state (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). A CLD may consist of a
number of reinforcing and balancing loops and ‘delay’ (//) which is the time lapse between a
cause and its effects (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Delays are often responsible for trade-offs
between the short- and long-term effects of policies and may cause unintended consequences
(Sterman, 2000, Mai, 2013).
Systems archetypes and leverage points
Systems archetypes are generic systems structures or templates that can present various
situations (Maani and Cavana, 2007). They provide a high-level map of dynamic processes
and suggest areas of leverage change (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Senge, 1991).
In systems thinking, leverage means “actions or interventions that can have a lasting impact
on the system in terms of reversing a trend” (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Leverage points may
lie in any complex system (Mai, 2013). Intervention strategies can be developed based on
leverage points that can be identified in system archetypes (Maani and Cavana, 2007).
V. Systems model of deforestation in the Central Highlands of
Vietnam
5.1. Introduction
The Central Highlands in Vietnam, including five provinces Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak,
Dak Nong and Lam Dong, form a plateau (Figure 3). It is one of the two agro-ecological
zones of the country. With the basalt soil at the average altitude of 500-600m, this region is
particularly appropriate for the production of industrial crops such as coffee, cocoa, pepper,
cashew and rubber. Currently, coffee is the most important industrial plant in this region. It is
also the second largest region for rubber plantations in the country.

20. 20
The Central Highlands is home to a large proportion of the ethnic minority communities.
Before 1954, a vast majority of the region’s population was ethnic minorities (Hirsch, 1999).
Under the resettlement policies, the region has become the destination of millions of Kinh
(ethnic Vietnamese) people who migrate from the lowlands to settle in the New Economic
Zones (Hirsch, 1999). The region’s population increased considerably as a result of this
resettlement scheme. In 1991, it was 2.8 million people but by 2000, it had reached 4.2
million (Xuan et al., 2010). Population growth is considered to be one of the leading causes of
poverty and natural resources exploitation within the region.
With its high terrain and numerous waterfalls, the Central Highlands has abundant
hydropower potential. Many hydropower plants have operated in the region with high
capacity such as Da Nhim (160,000 kW), Dray H’inh (12,000 kW) and Yaly (700,000 kW).
The Central Highlands comprises numerous forests and national parks. Its forest cover is
among the highest in the country, more than 40% of the total land area, with high
concentration of timber resources and wood stocks (FSIV, 2009). Forests in the Central
Highlands play a vital role in biodiversity conservation, soil erosion prevention and watershed
protection for the surrounding areas (Pham et al., 2012).
During the Second Indochina War (Vietnam War), approximately two million hectares of
forests in the Central Highlands were damaged due to chemical defoliants such as the Agent
Orange used by the United States Air Force (Hirsch, 1999). These defoliants were used to
destroy the crops and the vegetation cover where Vietnamese soldiers hid from attacks.
As a result of some forest policies such as the “National Target Program for Re-greening the
Barren Hills and mountains” (1992) and the “Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program”
(1998), the forest cover of the Central Highlands increased. However, contrary to other
regions in Vietnam, this region has experienced a rapid and extensive forest loss during the
last decade. Approximately 206,000 hectares of forests (20% of the forest area) disappeared
between 2005 to 2012 (Tan and Trang, 2013). Forest resource depletion has resulted in the
decline in timber extraction output, from 600,000-700,000 m3
/year in the late 1980s-early
1990s to 200,000-300,000 m3
/year at present (FREC and FIPI, 2011).
Much of forest loss in the Central Highlands appears to be the result of forestland conversion
for industrial crops and hydropower construction (Dinh, 2005). In addition, illegal logging is
most likely to be out of control partly because of the weak governance in forest protection and
management (Pham et al., 2012). The main indirect causes of deforestation in the Central
Highlands include population growth and economic growth, which increase the demands for
forest products and agricultural land. However, underlying these drivers are policies that have

21. 21
unintentionally put further pressure on the forests in the region. These will be discussed in
detail in the analysis of the conceptual model.
Figure 3: The Central Highlands in Vietnam
(Source: www.nchmf.gov.vn)
5.2. Behaviour over time
In order to understand the complexity of the deforestation system in the Central Highlands,
the Behaviour Over Time (BOT) of some key variables were identified. Along with the
reduction in the forest area, environmental quality is also declining whereas the poverty level
amongst forest dependent people is high (Sunderline and Huynh, 2005). The Central
Highlands is among the regions with the highest incidence of poverty (Sunderline and Huynh,
2005). Although there were no exact data for all key variables, the graphs in Figure 4
presented the overall trend of some variables over time. The following section will discuss
interrelationships and interactions between these key variables.

22. 22
Figure 4: Behaviour over time of some key variables in the deforestation system in the
Central Highlands
5.3. Causal loop diagrams
Some studies explained the changes of forest areas by introducing the Forest Transition
concept (Mather (1992), Walker (1993) and Grainger (1995) in Köthke et al. (2013)). The
decrease in the forest area is initially the result of increasing demands for agricultural land
(Figure 5). However, the forest area can recover due to the progress in agricultural
productivity that enables the abandonment of less productive areas (Köthke et al., 2013).
Some factors may delay this transition like increasing demands for food driven by population
growth, or accelerate it like the progress in technology (Köthke et al., 2013).

23. 23
Figure 5: The forest transition curves: shape (A) and rationale (B)
(Source: Köthke et al. (2013))
Deforestation can be explained based on a structure in dynamic systems called S-shaped
growth where there is an exponential growth at first, then a gradual slowing until an
equilibrium level is reached (Sterman, 2000). Deforestation may initially increase as a result
of land required for agriculture, but this reinforcing feedback will be limited by a balancing
feedback. This is because as the total area of forest remaining is reduced through
deforestation, the area available for conversion to agriculture is reduced and the pressures
(such as political pressure) that counteract deforestation increase. If the progress in
afforestation and reforestation can be achieved, a decline in deforested area will occur (Figure
6).

24. 24
Figure 6: The process of deforestation
(Adapted from Köthke et al. (2013))
Based on this hypothesis, a simple CLD is developed to explain different phases of
deforestation (Figure 7). Land conversion for agriculture drives the reinforcing phase of
deforestation while the decline in the forest estate represents the balancing phase. The
reinforcing phase might be dominant at first but as the carrying capacity is reached, the
balancing phase will occur and limit the growth.
As indicated in Figure 7, increasing demands for agricultural products results in more land
converted to agriculture. When forests are cleared, available land for agriculture increases,
leading to a rise in agricultural productivity. This increase will fuel economic growth, which
in turn leads to increasing demand for agricultural products. Contrary to the reinforcing loop,
the balancing loop shows how deforestation is controlled. When the forest estate declines as
the result of forest clearing, deforestation decreases because of the limit of the total forest
area. The growth of deforestation will be counteracted, as the balancing phase becomes
dominant.
Demand for
agricultural products
Economic growth Forest clearing
Forest estate
Land conversion
for agriculture
Available land for
agriculture
Agricultural
productivity
Total forest area
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
R B
Figure 7: The primary conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands

25. 25
5.3.1. Final conceptual model of deforestation
Figure 8 represents the final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands. This
model was developed based on the existing literature on deforestation in the Central
Highlands and consultation with some staff in the School of Agriculture and Food Science at
The University of Queensland and in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of
Vietnam. The model can illustrate the big picture of deforestation in the Central Highlands
and the dynamic relationships among factors present in the deforestation system.
Key variables and feedback loops are listed in Table 1 and Table 2. There are nine main
reinforcing loops (R1 to R9) and eight main balancing loops (B1 to B8) in the conceptual
model. The reinforcing loops represent the current dominant mechanisms driving the growth
in deforestation while the balancing loops limit this growth, but are currently sub-dominant.

26. Migration to
forested areas
Population growth
Demand for
agricultural products
Land conversion
for agriculture
Deforestation
Available land for
agricultureAgricultural
productivity
Income generation
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Forest estate
-
Global demand for
agricultural
commodities
+
Policies on
agricultural
expansion
+
Agricultural export
+
Forest products
Soil degradation
Water in soil and
groundwaterLivelihoods
Community
concern
Pressure on halting
deforestation
+
-
++
-
+
Poverty
+
+
Employment
opportunities
+
+
Total forest area
+
Hydropower
operation
+
+
+ -
+
+
Energy demand
Land conversion for
infrastructure
development
Economic growth
+
Available land for
hydropower
Electricity output+
+
Resettlement
Demand for
hydropower
++
+
+
Slash and burn
practice
Forest fires
+
+
+
+
+
Forest protection
policies
Cultural values
Biodiversity
GHG emissions
Climate change
Demand for timber
Logging motives
Global growth
Living standard
+
+
+
Timber
Revenue+
Weak governance
+
Poor awareness
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
++
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
R1
R2
R4
B1
-
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6 B7
B8
+
R5
R6
R9
+
-
+
R7
R8
R3
Figure 8: The final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands

27. Table 1: Positive feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands
Loop name Loop
number
Key variables
Population growth
and agricultural
expansion
R1 Population growth, migration to forested area,
demand for agricultural products, land conversion for
agriculture, deforestation, available land for
agriculture, agricultural productivity, income
generation
R2 Population growth, migration to forested area,
demand for agricultural products, land conversion for
agriculture, deforestation, available land for
agriculture, agricultural productivity, employment
opportunities
R3 Population growth, poverty, policies on agricultural
expansion, land conversion for agriculture,
deforestation, available land for agriculture,
agricultural productivity, economic growth, demand
for agricultural products
R4 Global demand for agricultural commodities, policies
on agricultural expansion, land conversion for
agriculture, deforestation, available land for
agriculture, agricultural productivity, agricultural
export, economic growth
R5 Population growth, poverty, demand for agricultural
products, slash and burn practice, forest fires,
deforestation, forest estate
R6 Population growth, poverty, policies on agricultural
expansion, land conversion for agriculture,
deforestation, forest estate
Infrastructure
development
R7 Economic growth, energy demand, demand for
hydropower, land conversion for infrastructure
development, deforestation, available land for
hydropower, electricity output
R8 Economic growth, energy demand, demand for
hydropower, resettlement, deforestation, timber,
revenue
Logging motives R9 Economic growth, living standard, demand for
timber, logging motives, deforestation, timber,
revenue

28. 28
Table 2: Negative feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands
Loop name Loop
number
Key variables
Forest resource
depletion
B1 Deforestation, forest estate
B2 Deforestation, forest estate, soil degradation,
agricultural productivity, livelihoods, community
concern, pressure on halting deforestation, forest
protection policies
B3 Deforestation, forest estate, water in soil and
groundwater, agricultural productivity, livelihoods,
community concern, pressure on halting
deforestation, forest protection policies
B4 Deforestation, forest estate, forest products,
livelihoods, community concern, pressure on halting
deforestation, forest protection policies
B5 Deforestation, forest estate, biodiversity, community
concern, pressure on halting deforestation, forest
protection policies
B6 Deforestation, forest estate, GHG emissions, climate
change, community concern, pressure on halting
deforestation, forest protection policies
B7 Deforestation, forest estate, cultural values,
community concern, pressure on halting
deforestation, forest protection policies
B8 Deforestation, forest estate, water in soil and ground
water, hydropower operation, electricity output,
community concern, pressure on halting
deforestation, forest protection policies
5.3.2. Analysis of key loops
Population growth and agricultural expansion
About two centuries ago, Malthus stated that population growth would increase pressure on
natural resources, including land and forests (Palo, 1994 in Mahapatra and Kant (2005)). This
is because population growth will lead to growing demands for food, fuel, shelter and income
generation through logging (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005).
Vietnam is among the countries that have large populations. In 2009, the total population was
89 million, including about 25 million ethnic minority people living in and close to forested
areas (Pham et al., 2012). It is estimated that Vietnam’s population will reach 100 million by
2020 (Pham et al., 2012). This rapid growth has resulted in a range of rural resettlement
policies introduced by the Government. One of the major policies is the development of New
Economic Zones in mountainous areas and islands where migration from the lowlands was
encouraged (Pham et al., 2012). From 1975 to 2000, over six million people migrated from
the lowlands of Vietnam to the Central Highlands (FCPF, 2011), leading to an increasing

29. 29
demand for agricultural land and forest products. Much of forestland has been cleared for
agriculture by new migrants (Pham et al., 2012).
The reinforcing loops R1 and R2 (Figure 9) indicate the relationships between population
growth and deforestation. As population grows, demand for agricultural products increases,
leading to more conversion of forestland for agriculture to serve the population. As more land
for agriculture is available, agricultural productivity will increase, which results in more
employment opportunities and income generation for local people (Mahapatra and Kant,
2005). These in turn encourage further migration to the Central Highlands. This migration has
significantly contributed to vast deforestation during the last decades (FCPF, 2011).
Moreover, due to increasing global demands for agricultural commodities, several policies on
expansion of the perennial industrial crops such as coffee, cashew, pepper and rubber were
introduced (FCPF, 2011). The recent expansion of these crops has concentrated in the Central
Highlands and the Southeast of Vietnam (Hang et al., 2011). As a result of more land devoted
for the industrial crops, agricultural export production rises, contributing to rapid economic
growth and further demand for cash crops (Reinforcing loop R4).
Migration to
forested areas
Population growth
Demand for
agricultural products
Land conversion
for agriculture
Deforestation
Available land for
agriculture
Agricultural
productivity
Income generation
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Global demand for
agricultural
commodities
+
Policies on
agricultural
expansion
+
Agricultural export
+
Employment
opportunities
+
+
+
Economic growth
+
+
+
R1
R2
R4+
Figure 9: Population growth and agricultural expansion loops

30. 30
In addition, as presented in the reinforcing loop R3 (Figure 10), to cope with poverty that is
mainly driven by population growth, a number of agricultural development policies were
introduced to achieve food self-sufficiency for ethnic minority people in mountainous regions
(Pham et al., 2012). More forestland was cleared for agriculture, which leads to an increase in
agricultural productivity and economic growth. As a result of economic growth, demand for
agricultural products continues to increase, leading to further conversion of forestland.
The reinforcing loop R5 (Figure 10) shows the vicious circle of poverty in the Central
Highlands. Poor communities have been using unsustainable practices such as slash and burn
agriculture to make a living (FCPF, 2011). Trees are burnt due to escaped fires from slash and
burn practice, which increased the depletion of forest resources, while these communities
themselves need forest products for fuel, construction and income (Sunderline and Huynh,
2005). The high dependence on forests makes them unable to escape from poverty. Besides,
policies to encourage the industrial crops without consideration of forest conservation have
exacerbated poverty. Many people have not benefited from coffee and rubber plantations
while their livelihoods are threatened by forest loss (Reinforcing loop R6).
Population growth
Demand for
agricultural products
Land conversion
for agriculture
Deforestation
Available land for
agriculture
Agricultural
productivity
+
+
+
+
+
Policies on
agricultural
expansion
+
Poverty
+
+
+
Economic growth
Slash and burn practice
Forest fires
+
+
+
+
R5
R6
+
R3
Forest estate
-
-
Figure 10: The interrelationship between poverty and deforestation

31. 31
Infrastructure development
The development of infrastructure is most likely to address the growing demand for energy
driven by economic growth. Because it is mountainous, the Central Highlands is very suitable
for hydropower, making it a strategic region for hydropower construction. As natural forests
are cleared for hydropower plants, dams and roads, more land becomes available for
hydropower and electricity output increases (Figure 11). This helps to boost economic
growth. This growth, in turn accelerates demand for energy (Reinforcing R7). As a result of
hydropower development, a vast number of ethnic minority people have been displaced to
other areas (Reinforcing R8). This resettlement is destructive to their livelihoods and gives
them no other choice but to clear more forest areas so that they can earn a living, and thereby
increasing deforestation (FCPF, 2011).
Deforestation
Energy demand
Land conversion for
infrastructure
development
Economic growth
+
Available land for
hydropower
Electricity output
+
+
Resettlement
Demand for
hydropower +
+
+
+
+
Timber Revenue
+
+
+
+
R7
R8
Figure 11: Infrastructure development loops
Logging motives
Rapid economic growth of the globe in general and Vietnam in particular, has led to a
growing demand for timber. As a result, unsustainable logging, including legal and illegal
logging takes place widely in the Central Highlands. Poor awareness and weak governance in
forest protection at local level allow logging motives to continue unabated (Pham et al.,
2012). Economic gains from timber extraction have resulted in an increasing demand for
timber and further logging, as illustrated in the reinforcing R9 (Figure 12).

32. 32
Deforestation
R9
Economic growth
Demand for timber
Logging motives of
natural forests
Living standard
+
+
Timber
Revenue
+
Weak governance
at local level
+
Poor awareness
+
+
+
+
+
+
Figure 12: Logging motive loop
Forest resource depletion
Deforestation cannot continue indefinitely because there are balancing loops in the system
that limit the reinforcing loops driving deforestation. The balancing loop B1 represents a
counteracting process whereby deforestation cannot clear more forest than that available
(Figure 13). Because of the over-conversion of forestland for agriculture and infrastructure
development, forest resources have been declined seriously, leading to a reduction of water in
soil and groundwater (Le, 2013). Water shortage makes it difficult for hydropower operation
and agricultural production, affecting the livelihoods of local people (Hoan, 2013). Recent
conferences on forests in the Central Highlands have highlighted the urgency of controlling
deforestation by terminating projects that convert forestland to non-forestry uses (Linh, 2013).
Furthermore, the decrease in the forest estate has resulted in the decline in forest products and
biodiversity, the increase in soil degradation and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions,
leading to rising community concern (Hoan, 2013, Le, 2013). Forest estate reduction also
poses a threat to the cultural values of the region when forest-related traditional festivals are
affected (Hoan, 2013). These all have led to increasing pressures to halt deforestation, as
showed in the balancing loops B2 to B8. Policies on forest protection have been introduced to
control deforestation in the region (FREC and FIPI, 2011).

33. 33
Deforestation
Agricultural
productivity
Forest estate
-
Forest products
Soil degradation
Water in soil and
groundwater
Livelihoods
Community
concern
Pressure on halting
deforestation
+
-
+
+
-
+
Total forest area
+
Hydropower
operation
+
-
+
+
Electricity output
+
Forest protection
policies
Cultural values
Biodiversity
GHG emissions
Climate change
+
-
-
++
+
-
+
+
-
B1
-
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
Figure 13: Forest resource depletion loops
5.4. Leverage points and intervention strategies
‘Limit to growth’ archetype
This type of system archetype consists of a reinforcing and a balancing loop (Maani and
Cavana, 2007). While the reinforcing process accelerates the growth or expansion of the
system, the balancing process pushes it back (Mai, 2013).
As illustrated in Figure 14, deforestation in the Central Highlands increases because it is
driven by economic growth. Due to the growth of the economy, demands for agricultural
products, as well as for energy, increase. These lead to forest clearing for agricultural
expansion and infrastructure development. More available land will increase agricultural
production and electricity output, in turn promoting economic growth. However, the
balancing loop indicates that there is a limiting force (the total forest area) that can limit the
growth of deforestation. The decline in the forest estate will halt deforestation because of the
pressure from the community.

34. 34
Economic growth
Demand for
agricultural products
Deforestation
Available land for
agriculture
Agricultural
productivity
Forest estate
+
+ -
-
+
+
+
Total forest area
+
R B
Community concern
-
Economic growth
Energy demand
Deforestation
Available land for
hydropower
Electricity output
Forest estate
+
-
-
+
+
+
Total forest area
+
R
B
Hydropower
projects
+
+
Community concern
-
Figure 14: ‘Limit to growth’ system archetype
The key leverage point for this case is to find ways to strengthen the limiting force and
weaken the reinforcing process so as to slow deforestation. Leverage points can lie in both
reinforcing and balancing loops. In this case, reducing the conversion of forestland to other
land uses should be applied. Specifically, the pressure on land conversion for agriculture can
be reduced through applying improved farming techniques, which requires less agricultural
land (UN-REDD, 2011b). Also, energy development policies focusing on alternative energy
sources rather than hydropower should be introduced so as to reduce land required for
hydropower development.
Another solution, identified in the balancing loop, is to increase the total forest area through
afforestation and reforestation. Specifically, afforestation programs implemented by
hydropower project owners should be encouraged as an offset for forest areas lost due to these
projects. However, this intervention should be applied along with other solutions because it
may cause side effects that will be discussed in the following system archetype.

35. 35
‘Shifting the burden’ archetype
This archetype represents the situation in which people tend to adopt quick fixes to deal with
the problem symptoms rather than implementing fundamental solutions (Maani and Cavana,
2007). The quick fixes can create side effects and delays that exacerbate the problem
symptoms and increase the need for further quick fixes (Maani and Cavana, 2007).
The balancing loop B1 in Figure 15 represents how the quick fix (reforestation) works to halt
the decline in the forest estate. However, this fix has resulted in the growing dependence on
reforestation, which delays natural forest protection (Balancing loop B2). The reinforcing
loop shows that the quick fix (reforestation) has caused procrastination in implementing the
fundamental solution of stronger forest protection policies. Over time, the delay in
implementing these policies will only lead to further forest estate depletion and an increase in
the need for further reforestation. The potential intervention for this problem is to focus on the
fundamental solution, which is stronger forest protection policy.
Reforestation
Growing dependence
on reforestationForest estate depletion
Natural forest
protection
+
-
+
+
B1
B2
-
-
R
Figure 15: ‘Shifting the burden’ system archetype
‘Fixes that fail’ archetype
This is the situation where undesirable consequences follow a well-intentioned action (Maani
and Cavana, 2007). A fix may help to tackle the problem in the short run but cause
unintended or even harmful effects, which result in the reversion of the system to its original
condition after delays (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

36. 36
Figure 16 shows one of the causes of poverty in the Central Highlands. Slash and burn
practice has been widely applied in this region to increase agricultural production and reduce
poverty (Balancing loop B). However, the inhabitants have been unable to escape from
poverty. This is because their slash and burn practice has caused forest fires leading to the
decline in the forest estate. As their income also comes from forests, the decline of forest
resources has led to increasing poverty in the region (Reinforcing R).
To tackle this problem, the local authority should implement measures to reduce slash and
burn practice, including raising community awareness on the negative effects of this practice
and strengthening programs on fire prevention in the forests. Another potential strategy is to
develop alternative farming systems and livelihood opportunities so that people are less
dependent on slash and burn agriculture for their livelihoods.
Poverty
Slash and burn
practice
Forest fires
Forest estate
+
+Agricultural
products
Forest products
-
+
-
+
-
B
R
Figure 16: ‘Fixes that fail’ system archetype
‘Tragedy of the commons’ archetype
Hardin (1968) described this archetype as a situation where a common pool resource is over
exploited (Maani and Cavana, 2007). This happens when everyone wants to gains the benefits
from the common resources, leading to undesirable consequences for all concerned (Maani
and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013).
In the Central Highlands, timber-processing enterprises have tried to extract as much timber
as they can so that the maximum net gain can be obtained (Reinforcing loops R1 and R2 in
Figure 17). However, as each timber processor tries to maximise their net gain from the
forest, the total timber resource is depleted, reducing the net gain for everyone after a delay
(Balancing loops B1 and B2).

37. 37
One solution to deal with this archetype is to strengthen campaigns to raise public awareness
on the limit of the common resources that they are sharing. At the same time, measures to
restrict over-exploitation of timber should be applied, such as setting harvesting quotas.
Timber
extraction of A
Revenue of A
Timber
extraction of B
Revenue of B
Total timber output Timber available
Timber limit
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
R1
R2
B1
B2
Figure 17: ‘Tragedy of the commons’ system archetype
VI. Discussion and conclusions
This research indicates that deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam is governed by
several drivers that exist not only in the forestry sector but other economic sectors such as
agriculture and infrastructure development. Specifically, the direct causes of deforestation in
the Central Highlands are land conversion for agricultural expansion and for infrastructure
development, logging motives and forest fires. These factors are mainly influenced by
growing demand for forest resources, agricultural products and for hydropower that are driven
by population growth and economic growth.
The systems analysis has highlighted some potential unintended consequences of current
forest-related policies. For example, the afforestation programs have not reversed the rate of
deforestation in the Central Highlands but have resulted in a delay on the development of
natural forest protection policy. The slash and burn practice that has been used by many
ethnic minority people to tackle poverty has not reduced poverty in the region but has

38. 38
exacerbated it through further forest loss. Focusing on agricultural expansion, particularly
cash crops, without considering forest conservation has exacerbated poverty because not
everyone benefits from agricultural expansion and those who are dependent on forests for
their livelihoods have become even further disadvantaged. The policies to encourage
migration to the Central Highlands, as well as hydropower development policies, have
resulted in further deforestation.
Deforestation is a complex, multi-dimensional and dynamic process. Through the analysis of
deforestation system in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, it can be clearly seen that
deforestation interacts with socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and infrastructure
development. Therefore, it is necessary to use a systems approach in order to have a
comprehensive understanding of the root causes of deforestation as well the feedback
mechanisms influencing it.
Previous studies have failed to capture the dynamics of deforestation as they simply identified
the factors driving deforestation rather than explaining the feedback mechanisms that these
factors are involved. By employing a systems thinking approach, this research not only
detects numerous direct, indirect and underlying drivers of deforestation in the Central
Highlands, but also reveal their interactions through reinforcing and balancing feedback
loops.
These loops can present the non-linear dynamics of the system. At any given point in time,
some loops will be dominant (e.g. deforestation for other land uses which increase economic
growth and the need for further deforestation) and have most influence on the trajectory of the
system. However, loops shift in dominance over time and it is these shifts in loop dominance
that generates the complex system behaviour. Therefore, complex system dynamics can be
created from a relatively small number of feedback loops. Consequently, in order to
understand complex system behaviour, it is not enough to understand the parts, but must also
understand how the parts interact.
This study also reveals the shortcomings of the existing policies in the Central Highland.
These policies have not been effective because they only focus on one sector or a small
number of factors influencing deforestation. For example, policies on agricultural expansion,
aiming to reduce poverty in the region, have not foreseen that poverty in the region is not only
driven by population growth but by forest depletion. Even though the agricultural expansion
policies have produced satisfactory results in the short term, they have failed to tackle poverty
in the region in the long term. Similarly, afforestation has not been sufficient to offset forest
loss caused by forestland conversion for other purposes and has resulted in a delay in the

39. 39
implementation of stronger forest protection policies.
Using systems thinking, a better insight into the deforestation process in the Central
Highlands of Vietnam has been achieved. Thus some potential interventions can be
recommended to reverse the deforestation trend. They include applying advanced farming
techniques that reduce land demand and provide alternatives to slash and burn agriculture,
developing alternative energy sources rather than hydropower, strengthening programs on
forest protection in combination with afforestation and reforestation, enhancing forest fire
prevention, implementing alternative livelihood programs to alleviate poverty, and
introducing measures to restrict unsustainable timber extraction. More importantly, it is
argued that these interventions should be implemented simultaneously because none of them
are silver bullets that will adequately address deforestation on their own.
The conceptual model developed in this research is based on the current literature, the
author’s understanding and discussions with some relevant people, and thus cannot include all
aspects of the deforestation system. Further studies are required to develop more
comprehensive conceptual models that can capture the concerns of all relevant stakeholders in
the Central Highlands. Moreover, a simulation model developed based on the conceptual
model and existing data is necessary so that potential intervention strategies can be designed,
evaluated and tested before being applied in reality.

40. 40
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