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Climate chaos, policy dilemmas


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Presentation at the policy roundtable in Kenya, February 2012.

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Climate chaos, policy dilemmas

  1. 1. Climate chaos, policy dilemmas Immaculate Maina, Michael Okoti and Andrew Newsham
  2. 2. OutlineSection I: Introduction• What is climate change• Potential direct impacts on agricultural sector• Climate change and policy• Global challenges to addressing climate changeSection II: Climate change and agriculture in Kenya• Rationale of the study• Theoretical and analytical framework• Actor and actor networks• Narratives• Politics• Important policy spaces• Conclusions and recommendations
  3. 3. WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGEUNFCC - “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectlyto human activity that alters the composition of the globalatmosphere and which is in addition to natural variability observedover comparable time periods.”Manifestations• Changes in temperature regimes• Changing rainfall patterns• Changing wind patterns• Floods• Droughts• Cyclones
  4. 4. Climate change and agricultureWhy agriculture..“…. is part of the climate change problem, contributing about 13.5percent of annual GHGs (with forestry contributing an additional 19 percent), compared with 13.1 percent from transportation. Agriculture is, however, also part of the solution, offering promising opportunities for mitigating emissions through carbon sequestration, soil and land use management, and biomass production”.Global agriculture - under significant pressure to meet the demandsof rising populations using limited resources - further stressed bythe impact of climate change.
  5. 5. Responses to global climate changeClimate change and its impacts on ecosystems and socio-economicsystems - prompted two types of policy responses:a) Aimed at reducing net emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) in order to slow or stop climate change - “mitigation” of climate changeb) Addresses the social systems, economic sectors and communities affected by climate change (rather than those contributing to it) - “adaptation”
  6. 6. A. MitigationMeasures reduce the amount of emissions (abatement) enhance the absorption capacity of greenhouse gases (sequestration)Emission sources - fertilizer application, livestock and manuremanagement, rice cultivation, and savanna burningSequestration - “best” management practices in agriculture that raiseSoil Organic Carbon - restoring degraded soils, improving pasturesand grazing land, crop and forage rotation, and no-tillage practicesThe economic potential for mitigation in agriculture depends on theprice of carbon, policy and institutional support, and transaction costconstraints – feasibility for Kenya?.
  7. 7. Example: Conservation agriculture as a mitigation measure3 components minimal mechanical soil disturbance (i.e. no tillage,direct seeding); maintenance of soils mulch (crop residues, covercrops); rotations or sequences and associations of crops includingtrees (nitrogen-fixing legumes).a) Increase in soil organic matter - reduces vulnerability to both excessive rainfall and droughtb) Soil under zero-tillage - increase the soil organic matter content by approx 0.1 to 0.2% per year - formation of 1 cm of new soil over a ten-year period.c) Facilitate soil structuring - filtration and storage of water in the soild) Directly absorbs up to 150m3 of water per hectare for each percent of soil organic mattere) No soil moisture is lost through tillage and seedbed preparation.
  8. 8. B. AdaptationIPCC - “adjustment in natural or human systems in response toexperienced or future climatic conditions or their effects or impacts– which may be beneficial or adverse”Huq et al. (2003): “Adaptation to climate change includes alladjustments in behavior and economic structure that reduce thevulnerability of society to changes in the climate system.”“Mitigation alone will not avoid serious impacts of climate change ondevelopment. The demands on adaptation will be very large. Futurevulnerability will depend more on development pathways than onclimate change. Sustainable development is both a necessary and asufficient condition for confronting climate change”. IPCC
  9. 9. Categories of adaptationAutonomous Action undertaken by individuals, households and businesses without direct intervention of public agencies Takes the form of a response to already obvious climate impacts Initiatives by private actors - triggered by market or welfare changes - induced by actual or anticipated climate changePlanned (or policy-driven) Measures that result from deliberate policy-decisions - minimize losses or benefit from opportunities Associated with public actors or government  Reactive - in response to actual climate impacts e.g. relief food distribution, livestock off-take??  Anticipatory - undertaken before climate impacts are felt e.g. development of dams to check on floods
  10. 10. Examples of autonomous and planned adaptationAutonomous adaptation Planned adaptationShort run adjustments e.g. Developing greater understanding ofchanging planting dates climate risks – carrying out climatic risks and vulnerability assessmentsSpreading the loss e.g. Improve emergency response –commodity insurance implementing early warning systemsLocalized irrigation on farms Investing in infrastructure – large reservoir storage, increased drainage capacityMigration Research – breeding crops and livestock Avoiding the impacts – land use planning – restrict development in areas of increased aridity or floodplains
  11. 11. CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLICYPolicy - constitutes the decisions taken by those with responsibility for agiven policy area, and these decisions usually take the form ofstatements or formal positions on an issue, which are then executed bythe systems of government”“The need for policy intervention (planned adaptation) is defined by theextent to which private actors (autonomous adaptation) are able toreduce negative impacts from climate change and the related costs”“Policy-makers have a crucial role to play in creating the institutional,policy, legal and regulatory frameworks necessary to enable andincentivize significant mitigation options”“The right mix of well-designed policies including regulations andeconomic instruments can overcome economic, technological,informational and behavioural barriers in the marketplace”“Adaptation is not a stand-alone activity, and its integration intodevelopment projects, plans, policies, and strategies will be crucial ”
  12. 12. Examples of adaptation options and possible policy supportAdaptation option Policy supportCrop/livestock diversification to Availability of extension services,increase productivity and protect financial supportagainst diseasesModernization of farm Promote adoption ofoperations technologiesPermanent migration to diversify Education and trainingincome opportunitiesEfficient water use Water pricing reforms, defined property rightsDevelop market efficiency Invest in rural infrastructure, remove market barriers, property rights
  13. 13. GLOBAL CHALLENGES IN ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGEa. Limited planning data e.g. literature on costs and benefit of adaptation or mitigation - limited and fragmented (sectoral and regional coverage)b. Limited/lack of financesc. Incoherent policy structuresd. Weak institutionse. Povertyf. Compartmentalization within government structures – ‘silos’g. Sectoral segmentation within development cooperation agencies – limited manpower, limited funding for anticipatory adaptation
  14. 14. SECTION II
  15. 15. Climate change issues in Kenya• Droughts, floods, increased temperatures, highly variable rainfall amounts and distribution – the vulnerable in rural areas that are most affected – the predominant livelihood strategies for most of these people are derived from forests or mixed fishing; pastoral and agro-pastoral; marginal mixed farming; high-potential mixed farming; cash cropping or irrigated cropping and wage labour• Thus, agriculture and climate change are intrinsically intertwined phenomena in Kenya
  16. 16. On-going efforts to deal with impacts of CC• The overaching National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) – Different complex policy and decision-making processes at different layers from the local to the global level with a large number of actors with specific differing interests involved
  17. 17. CC and agriculture• What is the unfolding climate change policy process as it relates to the agriculture sector?• What policies are in place to deal with CC consequences for the more than 80% of Kenya’s population that live in the rural areas and who derive their livelihoods from agriculture? – The Agriculture Sector Ministries (ASMs) are yet to develop a comprehensive policy document to deal with climate change issues, however their activities and interventions are aligned to the NCCRS
  18. 18. Activities and interventions in agricultural sector (I)• Increasing agricultural productivity and incomes• Encouraging value addition• Promoting indigenous and more drought tolerant food crops like cassava, millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes• Encouraging private-sector-led development of the sector• Ensuring environmental sustainability• Rain-fed agriculture with growing experimentation and expansion of the irrigated systems• Enhancing early warning systems and methods of communicating to downscale climate information to rural populations
  19. 19. Activities and interventions in agricultural sector (II)• Research and Development efforts (R&D) in integrated pest management systems• Crop and livestock insurance• Enhancing agricultural extension services• Developing proper food storage facilities• Regular vaccination campaigns as well as cross border disease surveillance• Research and Development efforts (R&D) in integrated pest management systems• Crop and livestock insurance• Enhancing agricultural extension services• Regular vaccination campaigns as well as cross border disease surveillance
  20. 20. Activities and interventions in agricultural sector (III)• Early Warning Systems on droughts, floods and disease outbreaks• Identification and establishment of fodder banks• Development of water resources, especially in the arid lands• Creating awareness among the pastoralist communities on stocking rates• Application of agricultural technologies limiting green house gas (GHG) emissions• Proper management of agricultural waste• Improved crop production practices including promotion of inter-cropping, promotion of organic farming and also implementation of the national domestic biogas project
  21. 21. Rationale of the study• To analyse the ongoing policy debates on climate change and agriculture – taking into account the alternative adaptation and mitigation pathways for the agricultural sector and how these are reflected in government plans (at different scales).• To re-examine the on-going, planned and projected actions in the agricultural sector in light of the goings on, namely; – the proposed actions and views emanating from the recently concluded COP 17 – the development of the action plan for implementation of the National Climate Change Response Strategy
  22. 22. Research questions• What are the key narratives on climate change among agricultural sector actors in Kenya, and what are the associated actors and political processes?• What are the key policy spaces in which important decisions relating to climate policy on agriculture are made and how are they likely to unfold in future?• What are the implications of the narratives for action on the ground in the agricultural sector? – Expected output: To contribute to the ongoing policy engagement (to reframe and broaden the debate) by examining the dominant narrative(s) and the driver(s) for that dominance
  23. 23. Theoretical and analytical framework • Knowledge and discourse. What is the ‘policy narrative’? • Actors and networks. Who is involved and how they are connected? • Politics and interests. What are the underlying power dynamics? Source: Adapted from Keeley and Scoones (2003) and Gaventa (2006)
  25. 25. Actors and actor networks: Schematic representation
  26. 26. Actors and actor networks• There is a wide range of actors, actor networks and institutions in Kenya all dealing with impacts of climate variability and climate change How do the various actors and actor networks delineate their roles and responsibilities, determine their agenda and plans, and position themselves in the regulatory and implementation frameworks of climate change policy process?
  27. 27. Major climate change and agriculture actions• Development of appropriate policy and legal environment• Building resilience of communities to climate shocks• Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)• Sensitization, awareness creation and capacity building Climate change issues present a two-pronged approach – adaptation and mitigation. Which of these two is most urgent, and/or most beneficial and therefore worth focusing limited resources on?
  29. 29. Adaptation mechanisms to improve the food security situation (I)Main adaptation strategies proposed:• Promotion of drought tolerant and disease and pest resistance crops- cassava, millets, cowpeas or green grams• Livestock: small ruminants and dairy farming• Soil and Water management• Conservation agriculture (CA)• Production of bio-fuels or food production
  30. 30. Awareness creation and sensitization (II)• Enhanced capacities and knowledge of the dynamics of climate change will increase peoples’ adaptive capacities and reduce their exposure to risks, making them less vulnerable• Many workshops in this regard have been held and continue to be planned.• Many these workshops target technocrats in key government sectors  Will this top-down approach of dissemination yield the intended results?  What information is informing the discussions around climate change adaptation and mitigation?  What are the mechanisms for the transfer of the knowledge and information acquired in these workshops downstream to the farming communities who need it most?
  31. 31. Capacity building (III)• Implementing the NCCRS requires new capabilities Need for relevant technical knowledge in computational skills for modelling and downscaling large scale datasets to fit into small regions Climate change being a new disciplinary area means that Kenya does not have a critical mass of persons with the necessary skills of knowledge in this area The capacity of climate change desk officers need to be strengthened
  32. 32. Energy as a key factor for agricultural development (IV)• To increase the national electricity grid and to drive the economy on a low-carbon trajectory, focus on other forms of power such as geothermal power, solar or wind power - enable the country to adapt to climate change and mitigate emissions However, access to electricity does not necessarily translate into connectivity of households to the national grid Connectivity seems a socio-economic issue Perhaps in developing new energy sources, the focus could be towards community power plants that communities can own and earn from
  33. 33. Financing climate change (I)Climate change support - new money, additional and adequate• UNFCCC special loans for CDM projects - Least Developed Countries (LDCs) vs. countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts• The Adaptation fund• The Green fund• GEF funds on biodiversity, climate change and agriculture• Donors: UNDP, FAO, Rockefeller Foundation, DANIDA, the European Union, IDRC, UNEP, World Bank , the Danish Government and other donors fund various civil society groups in Kenya
  34. 34. Financing climate change (II)• Funds allocation to climate change - Accessibility to funds and funds allocation within government ministries is guided by the planning processes in the various ministries.  However, it was conceived that when it comes to allocation of the funds to the various sectors, politics and interests play a critical role• Donor interests verses national priorities - International pressure, policies and politics were viewed as influencing government allocation of funds on issues surrounding climate change
  35. 35. POLITICS
  36. 36. Influential actors for climate change and agriculture• All Ministries, especially the Agricultural Sector Ministries• The Ministry is represented in all District Agricultural Committees (DACs). The District Agricultural Officer (DAO) who chairs the DAC is influential in reaching decisions that affect the grassroots levels.• Ministry of Environment  as the driver of the implementation of the NCCRS  Director of Bilateral Arrangements at the Ministry of Environment• The office of the Prime Minister (OPM)• NGOs especially those lobbying at the national level• The donor community
  37. 37. Important policy spaces• Climate Change Desk and related Climate Coordination Units within government line ministries• The ministerial stakeholder forums of line sector• The District Agricultural Committees• Farmers’ forums that feed into the DACs - they capture grassroots voices in the policy making processes• The Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) - Climate Coordination Unit (CCU) advises the government on climate change issues• The Inter-ministerial Consultative Forum on Climate Change coordinated from the OPM• NGO forums, such as the Kenya Climate Change Working Group (KCCWG)• The Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA)• The Donor Coordination Unit international politics also play a great role in determining
  38. 38. Conclusions and recommendations• More awareness creation  Knowledge creation – knowledge that is Kenyan and agriculture-based  Development of mechanisms for sharing knowledge –  less reliant on “technical fixes” and more embracing of experiential local knowledge• More coordination between the many actors – allow for a stronger local voice and not international interests• Embrace the complexity and uncertainty that surrounds policy making – effective management of bottom-up and top-down feedback loops
  39. 39. MITIGATION• “The REDD process poses the danger of restricting small scale farmers because these farmers are considered the main agents of degradation. This is not withstanding the activities undertaken by big concessions in mining and logging for example Tiomin in the Coast Province.”
  40. 40. COORDINATION“Climate change is not a few organizations’/individuals’ responsibility, everybodyshould be involved and hence it’s not easy to pin point and give the responsibilityto few entities. It is very important though that stakeholders focus on what theyare strong in – adaptation or mitigation or science or policy. But on the other handthe government should put in place sound policies and implementation frameworkthat must be adhered to. Information should be shared correctly. Currently manyplayers in climate change have their own agenda and they share part of theinformation that plays to their objectives. Some of the so-called awarenesscreation is borne out of self-interest - some of it aligning to specific funding. Moreefforts should be given in correlating cause and effect when it comes to climatechange and agriculture. There is need for sound scientific data or evidence to guideour activities nationally. Most of the responses are based on perceptions and noton what the real issues are. The climate change desk officers need to bestrengthened to address CC issues in their various sectors. This should apply also toagriculture being a main sector that is more vulnerable to CC and also key to theeconomic development of the nation.”
  41. 41. FINANCES“Generally I think that funds allocation is guided bythe planning process at the various ministries. Thework plans submitted are then moderated at thetreasury before the funds are allocated; this is at thenational level. But on the other hand, when it comesto allocation of the funds at the various sector levels(e.g. agriculture, energy, and water e.t.c), politics andselfishness plays a critical role. Hence though at thenational level plans everything may look rosy, duringimplementation the picture is different.”
  42. 42. FINANCES“What is really challenging is that most of these programmes areproject oriented, when a project is being designed a lot of actors areconsidered because the donor has what they want as outcomes andthe implementing organization, has the needs of the people. I believeprojects funded have to some extent a compromise of the issuesinvolved, that’s why it would really be important for organizations tobe either self sufficient or get funding from the government forsustainability. Because different donors have different interests,different technologies, different ideas and agendas that they aregoing to push. So you cannot implement something based on whatyou really think or on the reality on the ground. It is based on whatthey can fund; most of the money out there is limited to the donorinterest. That is why we have been operating in these vicious cycles ofprojects; even farmers are used to projects.”
  43. 43. POLITICS“Efforts on the ground on climate change seem to bead-hoc and opportunistic – many are not awareexactly what climate change is, the impacts,”“It seems the government of Kenya walks a tight ropebetween attracting foreign investments and theimpacts that such investments may have on theenvironment including aggravating degradation anddeforestation.”
  44. 44. THANK YOU