Global warming's six americas

Global Warming’s Six Americas: Understanding and
Communicating with a Diverse Public

EPA Green Power Partnership Webinar
December 7th, 2012
Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD
Neil Stenhouse, PhD student

Three take away points:
1. Regarding global warming, there are six distinct
groups of Americans. HOWEVER, America is
less divided on this issue than is often
assumed.
2. There is strong support for accelerating the
transition to clean energy.
3. There is also growing support for Congress &
the POTUS (as well as industry) to take action
on climate change.
2

Global Warming’s “Six Americas”
They think differently, but they don’t look different…

• The groups don’t differ much on the basis of sex,
race, age or income – there are men and women of
every age, race and income in each of the six
groups.
• But they differ dramatically in their beliefs about the
reality, causes and dangers of global warming, in
the political ideology, and in their underlying
worldviews.

Alarmed Alice
Alice is completely sure global
warming is happening, human
caused, and feels personally
threatened by it. She believes that
people around the world are
already being harmed by it, or will
be soon.

Alice is slightly more likely than
average to be taking steps to
reduce her energy use, but is far
more likely than average to use her
purchasing power - and her voice
as a citizen - to advocate for
change. Alice supports a wide
range of policy responses to
address global warming.

Concerned Claudia
Claudia is very sure global
warming is happening, and
believes it has human causes, but
feels less personally threatened
than Alice. She believes that
global warming will begin to harm
people around the world 10+ years
from now.

Claudia is average in terms of
taking measures to reduce her
energy consumption, but well
above average in terms of using
her purchasing power to advocate
for change. Claudia supports
aggressive government policies,
but is currently unlikely to contact
her elected officials to say so.

Cautious Carl
Carl is only somewhat sure that
global warming is happening, and
he is equally likely to see it as
human caused or natural. He sees
global warming as a distant threat –
primarily a threat to other people –
that won’t begin to hurt people
around the world for another 25 - 50
years.

Carl is taking average steps to
reduce his energy consumption, but
isn’t involved in addressing global
warming in other ways. He is,
however, modestly supportive of a
range of proposed policies.

Disengaged Diane
Diane thinks global warming may be
happening, but she’s not at all sure.
She’s given it very little thought,
doesn’t consider it personally
important, and doesn’t know much
about it.

Diane has done relatively little to
reduce her use of energy at home, but
because she has lower than average
income she is more likely than
average not to rely on her own car.

Despite her low level of personal
concern, Diane is more supportive
than Carl of a national response to
global warming.

Doubtful David
David says he doesn’t know if real or
not, but if it is, he’s pretty sure it isn’t
human-caused. David isn’t worried
about it; he sees global warming as a
very distant threat that won’t harm
people for at least another 100 years.

David isn’t in favor of a national
response to global warming per se,
but he is modestly in favor of a range
of energy-saving policy measures,
and is improving energy-efficiency in
his home.

Dismissive Dan
Dan does not believe that global
warming is happening and believes that
many scientists share his views. Dan
doesn’t support any form of
government action against global
warming, although he does support
efforts to develop or promote
renewable energy sources.

He is more likely than average to be
making energy-efficient improvements
to his home.

Global Warming’s “Six Americas”

Leiserowitz et al., (2012)

Four key beliefs are strongly associated with the attitude
that society “should do more to address global warming,”
and with support for a range of public policies that will help limit
global warming

Global Warming
Key Beliefs:
+ • Policy Support
• It’s real
• It’s human caused
• Injunctive Beliefs
• It’s bad for people
• It’s solvable

Ding, Maibach et al (2011) Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions
about scientific agreement. Nature Climate Change, DOI:10:1038/NCLIMATE1295

A quick profile of selected key beliefs about global
warming that influence global warming policy support.

• It’s real
• It’s human-caused
• It’s bad for people
• It’s solvable.

“Do you think global warming is happening? How certain are you?”

(i.e., It’s real.)

What’s causing global warming?

i.e., It’s human-caused

Source: Yale & George Mason, July 2010

When do you think global warming will start
to harm people in the U.S.?

(i.e. It’s bad for people)

People can reduce global warming
Humans could reduce global
warming, but it’s unclear if we will
Humans can reduce global
warming, and we will

(i.e., It’s solvable)

Fall 2008

assumed.
on climate change.
17

assumed.
on climate change.
18

Majority of Americans Say the U.S. Should Use Less Fossil Fuels
and More Renewable Energy in the Future

In the future, the U.S. should use fossil fuels… Should use renewable energy sources…

60% 56%

50%

40%

30% 28%
26%
22%
20% 16%
14%
12%
10%
10% 8% 8%
2% 1%
0%
Much more than Somewhat more The same Don't Somewhat less Much less than
today than today amount as today know/Refused than today today

In the future, do you think the United States should use fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) less, more, or the
same amount as we do today?
In the future, do you think the United States should use renewable energy sources (solar, wind, and geothermal)
less, more, or the same amount as we do today?
Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061)

Many Americans Want to Reduce Fossil Fuel Use and Increase
Use of Renewable Energy Immediately

We should immediately increase use of
76%
renewable energy sources*

We should immediately decrease use of fossil
63%
fuels**

0% 50% 100%
How soon do you think we should start increasing renewable energy use in the United States?
How soon do you think we should start reducing fossil fuel use in the United States?

*Base: Americans 18+ who say the U.S. should use more renewable energy sources in the future (n=844).
**Base: Americans 18+ who say the U.S. should use less fossil fuels in the future (n=577).

Americans Believe That Reducing Fossil-Fuel Use and Global
Warming Will Have Very Similar Benefits for the U.S.
- % who say they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” with the reason -

Steps taken to reduce global warming (n=535) Steps taken to reduce fossil fuels (n=526)

Help free us from dependence on foreign oil 54%
61%

Provide a better life for our children and grandchildren 56%
58%

Improve people's health 55%
58%

Save many plant and animal species from extinction 55%
56%

Create green jobs and a stronger economy 52%
53%

Prevent the destruction of most life on the planet 44%
44%

Protect God's creation 44%
43%
Protect the world's poorest people from environmental harm 38%
caused by the world's richest 40%
Save many people around the world from poverty and 33%
starvation 31%

Improve our national security 20%
28%

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.
(Asked of half the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce our use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), it will…
(Asked of the other half of the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce global warming, it will…
Base: Americans 18+.

Americans Believe That Reducing Fossil-Fuel Use and Global
Warming May Have Similar Drawbacks for the U.S.
- % who say they “somewhat” or “strongly agree” with the reason -

Steps taken to reduce global warming (n=535) Steps taken to reduce fossil fuels (n=526)

54%
Lead to more government regulation
50%

42%
Cause energy prices to rise
43%

21%
Cost jobs and harm our economy
25%

20%
Interfere with the free market
23%

16%
Harm poor people more than it helps them
18%

16%
Undermine American sovereignty
17%

Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.
(Asked of half the sample) If our nation takes steps to reduce our use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), it will…
(Asked of the other half of the sample) If our nation takes steps to global warming, it will…

There Is Bipartisan Agreement That the U.S. Should Use More
Renewable Energy in the Future
In the future, do you think Americans should use renewable energy sources
(solar, wind, and geothermal) less, more, or the same amount as we do today?

Republicans (n=260) Independents (n=231) Democrats (n=326)

64%
61%

42%

29%
24%
19%
15%
13%
10% 9%
7% 6%
4%
1% * 2% * 1%


Base: Americans registered to vote 18+.

Democrats and Independents Are the Most Likely to Support a
Transition Away From Fossil Fuels
In the future, do you think Americans should use fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas)
less, more, or the same amount as we do today?

Republicans (n=260) Independents (n=231) Democrats (n=326)

37%

31%
30%
27%
24%

16%
15% 15%
13% 13%
11%
10%
9% 9% 9%
7% 7%
5%


Base: Americans registered to vote 18+.

Global Warming’s Six Americas
All Six Americas feel that clean energy development
should be a priority
Very high 4 3.7
3.5
3.3

High 3 2.8
2.9
2.6
2.3 Global Warming
2.2
2.1 2.0 Developing Clean Energy
Medium 2

1.4

1.0
Low 1
Alarmed Concerned Cautious Disengaged Doubtful Dismissive

"Do you think global warming should be a low, medium, high or very high priority for the president and Congress?“

"Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high or very high priority for the
president and Congress?” (March 2012)


There is very strong support for funding
research to develop renewable energy

93% 89% 83% 75% 68% 43%

(%’s listed = percent who support)

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? …Fund more research into renewable energy
sources, such as solar and wind power.” (March 2012)

There is very strong support for tax
rebates to encourage purchasing efficient
vehicles and solar panels

88% 90% 81% 78% 60% 35%


“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? … Provide tax rebates for people who purchase
energy-efficient vehicles or solar panels.” (March 2012)

There is moderately strong support for
requiring utilities to use 20% renewables,
even if it costs households $100/year

92% 77% 63% 46% 44% 25%


“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? …Require electric utilities to produce at least 20% of
their electricity from wind, solar, or other renewable energy sources, even if it cost the average household an
extra $100 a year.” (March 2012)

There is moderately strong support for a
policy that will raise utility bills by 5% to
get power from renewables

87% 63% 58% 43% 21% 11%


“How much do you support or oppose the following policies for your local community? …Paying 5% more on your
monthly utility bill to get your electricity from renewable energy sources, like wind or solar.” (March 2011)

assumed.
on climate change.
30

Majority of Americans Say Developing Clean Energy and Global
Warming Should Be Priorities for the President and Congress

Very high priority High Medium Low

Developing sources of
31% 38% 23% 8%
clean energy

Global warming 18% 25% 34% 23%

0% 50% 100%

Do you think that global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress?
Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the
president and Congress?

Growing Support For the President and Congress to Make
Global Warming a Priority

Believe GW should be medium/high/very high priority

Believe developing clean energy sources should be medium/high/very high

100%
94%
91% 92% 92%
89% 90%

83%

77% 77%

75% 72%
69% 70% 70%

50%
11/2008 1/2010 6/2010 5/2011 11/2011 3/2012 9/2012
(n=2,164) (n=1,001) (n=1,024) (n=1,010) (n=1,000) (n=1,008) (n=1,061)

Do you think that global warming should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the president and Congress?
Do you think that developing sources of clean energy should be a low, medium, high, or very high priority for the
president and Congress?

A Large Majority of Americans Support a U.S. Effort to Reduce
Global Warming, Even if It Has Economic Costs

How big of an effort should the U.S. make to reduce global warming?

44%

24%
19%

12%

No effort A small-scale effort, A medium-scale effort, A large-scale effort, even
even if it has small even if it has moderate if it has large economic
economic costs economic costs costs

How big of an effort should the United States make to reduce global warming?

Majority of Americans Say the U.S. Should Reduce Its Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Regardless of What Other Countries Do
The U.S. should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions…

61%

25%

7%
5%
2%

Regardless of what other Only if other industrialized Only if other industrialized The U.S. should not reduce Don't know
countries do countries (such as England, and developing countries its emissions
Germany, and Japan) (such as China, India, and
reduce their emissions Brazil reduce their
emissions

People disagree whether the United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions on its own, or make
reductions only if other countries do too. Which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of
view? The United States should reduce greenhouse gas emissions…?

Americans Are Most Likely to Say Corporations and Industry
and Citizens Themselves Should Be Doing More to Address
Global Warming
Should be doing much more More Currently doing right amount Less Much less

Corporations and industry 39% 32% 18% 6% 5%

Citizens themselves 25% 41% 23% 5% 4%

The U.S. Congress 24% 36% 22% 8% 9%

The President 18% 35% 29% 7% 10%

0% 50% 100%

Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming?
Base: Americans 18+ (n=1,061).

Growing Majorities of Americans Say Corporations, Industry,
and Congress Should Do More to Address Global Warming
The Congress should be doing much more/more to address GW
Corporations and industry should be doing much more/more

100%

73%
70% 71%
75%
66% 67%
64% 65%

67%
60%
50% 57% 58%
54% 54% 55%

25%
11/2008 1/2010 6/2010 5/2011 11/2011 3/2012 9/2012
(n=2,164) (n=1,001) (n=1,024) (n=1,010) (n=1,000) (n=1,008) (n=1,061)

Do you think each of the following should be doing more or less to address global warming?


Most Americans feel that the current state
of the economy is no excuse not to
address global warming.

90% disagree 71% 53% 51% 41% 20%

“With the economy in such bad shape, the US can't afford to reduce global warming.” (March 2012)

A large majority of Americans feel that
protecting the environment is good for
or has no effect on the economy

94% 94% 85% 84% 74% 46%

(%’s = Answered “Improves growth” or “No effect”)

“Overall, do you think that protecting the environment…”. (March 2012)


A large majority of Americans support
regulating CO2 as a pollutant

89% 89% 82% 67% 55% 29%

“How much do you support or oppose the following policies? … Regulate carbon dioxide (the primary greenhouse
gas) as a pollutant.” (March 2012)

A substantial number of consumers say
they have purchased from companies in the
past year because of the steps the
companies are taking to help reduce global
warming
77% 48% 35% 14% 13% 4%

(%’s = Took this action at least once in the past year)

“Over the past 12 months, how many times have you done these things? …Rewarded companies that are taking
steps to reduce global warming by buying their products.” (May 2011)

assumed.
on climate change.
41

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Global warming's six americas

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