Grain and feed commodities started 2012 on a stronger note as a prolonged hot, dry spell over the Latin American grain belt sparked fears of major crop losses from this key exporting region. Some analysts drew comparisons with 2008/09 when similar weather chopped more than 17% - 14m tonnes of maize and 20m

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Global Feed Markets: January - February 2012
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2. News January - February 2012 NEWS
COMMODITIES
GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Efficiency, productivity and safety increase through
the use of automation systems
- As many as 215 automation companies to exhibit at IPACK-IMA
T
he exhibition features organized by major tr ade t h at h a s c h o se n I PAC K-
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews technological meetings associations. IMA 2012 as the venue to
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of and seminars promoted A N I E ( t h e F e d e r a t i o n meet the specialist public is
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations by the industry’s representative representing the electro - ANIPLA (Italian Automation
will influence your decision-making. trade associations t e c h n i c a l a n d e l e c t ro n i c Association) with a meeting
companies in Italy) will hold a focused on next-generation
Technologies for packaging, seminar intended for all industry t e c h n o l o g y t o i m p r o v e
proce ssing and indust ri al p r o f e s s i o n a l s , d e s i g n e r s , efficiency and productivity
logistics, the three pillars of manufacturers and assemblers ( sc h e d u l e d fo r T h u r sd ay
Although not Latam jitters stall price drop IPACK-IMA 2012,Ukrainian maize exports months of highly unusual “Electrical Cabinet for March 1st): “Automation in the
sense. This season’s all have a titled
are degree to automation normal 5m to maize/wheat premiums. Human Interfaces Machines: Packaging: from innovation to
highexpected of rocket from a as these countries have been the biggest factor
directly affected by - but wheat supplies keep rising their common characteristic. selling at $6 energy Efficiency”.
a record 12m tonnes. With maize the interest ofAs we expected in earlier issues, the worldandbringing down world and European wheat prices
the vast majority design, application
instead of the usual $4 to $5/bushel of professionals visiting the efficiency”. The meetings (on L a s t l y, t h e o b j e c t i ve o f
The upcoming edition of the (sometimes wheat crop has been consistently under-rated in 2011.
Although increasingly comprehensive,
schedule for Friday March this ‘front-loaded’ export campaign
G
considerably less) this grain from event.
exhibition on scheduleshould bring in a lot in recent months, largely due to better than
the South American rain and feed commodities started 2012 slightly higher than in the previous month and 40m February 28th to March Ukraine’s often low- expectedeff iciency, the 2nd) will discuss requirements be slowing nowc cand t e dgrainlpricesl
more foreign exchange than 3rd at The increase in harvests in former Soviet Union. appears to w i d e l y a – e p CIS g o b a
on a stronger note as a prolonged hot, more than last year’s. Fiera Milanoexports. Europe200 sawraohuge t i v i t y main d sorf e t y Sea’ producers’ of in-fieldslowly rising –standards also has bigger exports
grade wheat will host over also p d u c The a n CIS a ‘Black and features output control this season will be discussed
drought threat, dry spell over the Latin American grain That said, coarse grain supplies will be lighter than exhibitors its maize crop this season tosa recordrd sis f o r estimated rto have rebounded from from good crops in aCanada, Argentina and
rebound in active in the industry tanda now m a c h i n e y panels and will provide an during specific meeting on
belt sparked fears of major crop losses the trade hoped last autumn, in a season in which the of automation systems 56m in 2010. This last season’s drought/heat-wave-reduced 81m (despite a lot Friday March 2nd organized by
64.3m tonnes from less than and and equipment is largely the outline of the main national and of weather damaged grain this year)
wheat joined the from this key exporting region. Some analysts drew US maize crop has again fallen short of target (314m components. 215 domestic use and exports innovations brought expected to allow regional Australia. So,PLCopen, awheat import trade is
has not only boosted companies result of tonnes to 114m. This is international regulations, the while world global association
comparisons with 2008/09 when similar weather rather than the initially forecast 330/335mnnes). but will add some to seasonal ending about by manufacturers of materials employed seen about of manufacturers and vendors
representing a sector capable stocks too. exports of 35m tonnes compared with less than according 5.5m tonnes higher this season than
end-year rally in chopped more than 17% - 14m tonnes of maize On the plus side for supply, record maize production creating strong reasons why au om at 14m last season. Only to different some well as of automation systems aiming
of These are the main synergies the t‘tight’ ion sys te m s . The a few months ago,uses as last, the buzzword for many months has been
and 20m tonnes of soyabeans off South American and exports are coming out of eastern Europe, chiefly with thefutures market is currently forecasting trade pundits were rubbishing ideas that sales and the at becomingthan any leader in
US maize ten exhibition areas latest advances showcased specific applications competition. This, rather global strictures
soyabeans and production, squeezing world supplies and prolonging Ukraine, which has been happy to slash its prices and nine business communities end-2012 – would comehand in near the 25/30m tonnes to them. is the main reason why US and EU
prices will be 7.5% cheaper at at IPACK- IMA go anywhere legislation connected on supply, the regulation of automation
the descent from that season’s record world grain to establish itself as a serious challenger to the US returning to a 17% discount to hand with technical other analysts. Heavy exports from exports are control systems.
of IPACK-IMA, thus attracting wheat after vaunted by meetings Another prestigious association currently expected to drop by about
maize, even rising and oilseed prices. That season, drought also and Argentina. Along with the huge global supply of
coincided with a short US maize crop (down 24m competitively priced feed-wheat, this has considerably
faster than the tonnes) but was offset by a record wheat harvest dulled the impact of smaller than expected American
which gave consumers choice and helped stop prices maize crops. Look for
Bringing International Expertise to Satisfy Local Needs
latter as funds running completely out of control – also similar to So has a slower trend in world demand for maize.
the current season. In the largest consuming country, the USA, maize the NIR solution INFRANeO
who got into the In the event, things don’t look anything like as bad offtake has actually fallen by about 1.8% as corn ethanol JUNIOR
2008/09 as this issue goes to press in late January. growth has flat-lined while feed use has dropped. This that best matches your needs
habit of selling this Although Argentine weather might yet turn dry again, is quite a contrast to recent seasons when ethanol use
a series of rain events in January has favoured most was growing in leaps and bounds.
y Measure chemical composition as soon as you
surplus market of the drought-stressed areas and temperatures have Global demand for corn is still up overall by 25m
cooled. Relief may have come a bit too late to put back tonnes (the lion’s share of growth in China, Brazil and receive your raw materials.
were forced to buy all the lost yield potential for maize trying to pollinate India). However, that’s nowhere near the 40m tonne y Estimate technical values of flours, semolinas, grits, glutens,
back some of these
during the December heat-waves but it has almost
certainly stemmed losses at far lower levels than the
expansion seen in 2009/10.
Even so, US/global maize stocks remain at their
starches (and other powders products).
y Moisture, protein, ash content, zeleny, hydration*.ILDEX VIETNAM 2012
pessimists feared. tightest level in relation to consumption for decades (* choose from over 60 calibrations available)
positions. There That was underlined in mid-January when the - less than eight weeks’ supply cover. A bigger world INFRANeO Junior can also analyse whole grains.
USDA’s monthly world forecasts trimmed just 3m crop will be vital this summer/autumn, even to meet
was also much talk tonnes from Argentina’s maize crop estimate and a continued slower rate of demand growth. That Saigon Exhibition and Convention Center
left Brazil’s unchanged. USDA also lopped just 1m means markets will remain highly sensitive to any US,
of wheat’s value as tonnes from Brazilian and 1.5m from Argentine soya European or former Soviet country weather problems wITh
crop estimates. In fairness, most market analysts see in the months ahead and the level of spring plantings SIMPLe NO OPeRATOR COST SAvINg
a feedgrain rising these estimates (which still suggest record or near- in these countries too. INFLUeNCe
record crops) as a bit too generous. However, they So far, the auspices are encouraging. Pundits are
if Latin American are probably nearer the likely outcome than some of looking for a rise of 3% or more in US planted area
the earlier dire forecasts. for maize which, with a return from last year’s (low)
weather did cut In fact, in its second bearish global forecast in as to normal yields - about 160 bu/acre - could result
many months, the USDA calculated far looser supplies in a crop increase to 350/360m tonnes. That would
supplies and drive overall, including rises rather than expected cuts for US more than take care of demand growth, the shortfall FAST ACCURATe
2011 maize and soyabean crops, lower US wheat and currently foreseen for South American maize crops – For more information and space booking contact:
up prices of maize. soyabean use, higher US wheat and maize stocks as and still leave some over to start rebuilding low stocks. T. +66 (0) 2 203 4260-7 E-mail: info@ildex.com www.ILDEX.com
well as those far higher than expected Latin American Ukraine, which lost a lot of its winter-sown wheat
crop estimates. Higher Ukrainian, EU and Russian and barley, maybe 20-30%, to drought, intends to Organized by Supported by Official International Magazines
production also left world maize output and stocks plant much of this land up to maize instead. It makes 20, avenue Marcellin Berthelot • 92396 Villeneuve-la-Garenne • FRANCE
Tél. : + 33 1 41 47 50 29 • Fax : + 33 1 41 21 07 10 • Mail : info@chopin.fr • www.chopin.fr
Photo credits : www.istockphoto.fr-© Elena Elisseeva-© Kristian Septimius Krogh-© Srdjan Stefanovic-© Dr. Heinz Linke-© Stratesigns, Inc.-© Kaupo Kikkas.
infraneo_junior_GB_190x132mm.indd 1 24/02/2011 14:24:49
34 | January - february 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy Grain &feed millinG technoloGy 35
January - february 2012 | 11

3. Cut costs, spare the environment. High energy prices, increasing cost pressures,
and a keener awareness of the need to protect the climate are making energy
efficiency a core corporate task. With their Energy Saving Service, Bühler specia-
lists offer effective support. In three steps – from an assessment of the current
situation and validation to expert implementation – your production processes
one third this season and why prices in both nagging Euro-Zone debt crisis lurches on without Against that, Ukraine might lose 25-30% of its
markets were 20% cheaper in January 2012 than real resolution but maybe with a little less impact winter wheat crop. Assuming more of this land will become much more economical, technologically optimized and environmen-
this time last year .
That trend may continue. World consumption
from the markets. Financial pundits continue
to warn of potentially severe repercussions for
went to maize than spring wheat that could mean
5m or 6m less wheat next summer from this
tally friendly. Don’t settle for compromises – trust the longtime experience and
of wheat may be up by 27.5m tonnes or 4% global economic growth and thus on demand for source, However, even from this year’s bumper extensive know-how of the Bühler Energy Experts. We would be pleased to as-
this season but production is growing faster, so food, feed and fuel commodities. It has been a big crop, Ukraine is only expected to raise exports
stocks will rise. In fact, the current USDA forecast restraint on grain and oilseed bulls but markets from 4m to 7m tonnes – not the biggest factor sist you. www.buhlergroup.com
(for June 30 2012) is for a world carryover of seem to have grown tired of listening to this in the current highly competitive export market.
210m tonnes – 31% of consumption needs story. A steep drop in demand for ocean freight More important may be whether Russia,
(about 16 weeks supply). Some analysts even and lower shipping costs for grain also suggests Kazakhstan and European countries manage to
put them higher than the all-time record 211m something is slowing down. Yet the total export repeat last year’s good yields and whether the
of 1999/2000. trade estimates for the major grains and oilseeds US, Canada (which plans to raise are by 12% !) Bühler AG, Grain Processing Customer Service, CH-9240 Uzwil, Switzerland, T +41 71 955 30 40,
At the same time, the International Grains in 2011/12 (ends June 30 for wheat, Sep 30 for and Australia get the right weather for plenty of service.gp@buhlergroup.com, www.buhlergroup.com
Council is forecasting world wheat sowings 1.7% coarse grains) remain relatively robust. good milling quality wheat.
higher for 2011/12 crops. If yields hold steady, Meanwhile, the speculators who played such a The current supply/demand situation for these
that could deliver the first world crop in excess large part in record grain and oilseed prices over grades looks better than a few months ago, when
of 700m tonnes. the last two or three years are still there but a US Dark Northern Spring wheat for export from
Steady yields might be a tall order for some less strident force, having not got the profits they the Gulf was trading fob terms at $420/430 per Energy Saving
countries. Last year’s world average wheat expected last year for investments in wheat and tonne (hitting a high of $579 in the summer).
yield was a record 3.1 tonnes/hectare (+7%) soyabean futures at least. We can expect some The January 2012 cost has fallen to a 13-month Service – optimal
eclipsing a slight decline in sowings. This winter,
East European and US crops have dryness issues
banks and hedge funds to continue trying to
talk prices back up at the first hint of a weather
low of $366/tonne.
Whether or not the world gets a 700m or energy efficiency.
that could work against maximum potential. The problem, especially for maize with its record 650m tonne wheat crop for the coming season,
EU has also been short-changed on rains in some low stock/use ratios. But aside of the Argentine it will also start with massive carryover stocks
south/eastern member states. Nonetheless, drought factor, 2012 does not at this stage look from this year, equal to 16 weeks’ consumption. Cut costs: Reduction of operating costs
there is an overall impression of ‘generally like a promising year for the funds to gamble If the crop does reach the upper end of forecasts, by higher efficiency of infrastructure,
favourable’ conditions around the main northern again on price rises. a burdensome wheat supply may have to be improved energy utilization rate, and
hemisphere wheat belt. Indeed, some countries, priced lower to raise its share of the feed ration fine-tuned processes. Possibility to
especially Australia, Germany, Canada and the
Ukraine, might also expect a bit more luck with
Main commodity highlights since – unless of course, maize crops in the Americas
or elsewhere do run into serious problems.
claim financial support by governmental
grain quality – i.e. better summer growing/harvest our last review EU wheat prices as reflected on the Paris promotion programs.
weather after two years of unusually challenging futures market dropped from a high of �209/
conditions. Will wheat prices drop back? tonne in early January to �194 a week later, Spare the environment: Production
This combination – big crop, huge stocks, Although not directly affected by the South then back to the �208 again recently. It seems processes will be more sustainable and
bigger sowings, questions why the Chicago American drought threat, wheat joined the end- remarkable that the European markets are trading environmentally friendly by slashing
futures complex should be forecasting wheat year rally in soyabeans and maize, even rising so high against the wheat supply backdrop. Back in
carbon emissions. Green image gua-
prices 11.5% higher at the end of 2012 than faster than the latter as funds who got into the December, for example, EU March milling wheat
they are now. Consumers will rightly question habit of selling this surplus market were forced could have been bought for just �179.75/tonne. ranteed.
the reliability of this futures ‘price revelation’, to buy back some of these positions. There was London feed wheat futures at the same time
given that this time last year, Chicago wheat was also much talk of wheat’s value as a feedgrain were around £140.50/tonne but have recently Single-source service: Assessment
forecasting $8.55/bushel for end-2011 compared rising if Latin American weather did cut supplies breached £168.50. Moreover, feed demand in at local site, professional consulting,
with the actual price with which the year end of and drive up prices of maize. the UK has been unusually slow for the time of
presentation of different options, imple-
of $6.45¼. Chicago futures ‘price discovery’ was European wheat prices had to follow the year with compounders reportedly intent on
mentation of the optimal variant, regular
just as wrong on maize. A year ago it saw a 10% US/world trend in first half January with added making sales than wheat and other commodities.
drop in prices over 2011. Despite a 40m tonne support from the weak Euro which dropped to However, markets here are largely following efficiency checks – all this will be done
(5%) recovery in world output, values actually 15-month lows against the US$ at one point. This the US response to Argentine weather/crop by experienced Bühler experts.
rose 15% amid the US crop shortfall and China’s could boost EU export sales prospects although reports with the other eye on Euro-zone issues
return as a major importer. there has been little sign of any incoming trade and their effect on the single currency’s value Individual design: Modular design al-
While still on the futures markets, we might bonanza yet amid still plentiful supplies from versus the dollar. More volatility is likely ahead
lows an individual selection from among
also question why, if maize is the main factor North and South America, Australia and CIS as these issues are resolved (or not) although
holding wheat up as most trade analysts accept, countries. some analysts are looking for a possible further different detailing levels. Individual
wheat should be forecasting a 17% premium over The USDA’s US wheat planting estimates were slide in EU soft milling markets into 2012 due to proposals for solutions on the basis of
the coarse grain by the end of 2012? Shouldn’t it also bearish (up 3% on last year’s) larger than the ongoing weight of export competition and your specific plant.
be the other way around? expected and focused on hard red winter wheat the possibility this will lead to end-season wheat
As well as the ‘fundamentals’ (supply/demand (+6%), the mainstay of US exports and a top stocks turning out larger than expected.
issues) above, grain and feed markets continue indicator of world bread wheat value. If US spring Russia’s aggressive early season export
to keep an eye on ‘macro-economic factors that wheat plantings went up by the same amount campaign – a key factor in setting low world
might influence physical demand, speculative and national average wheat yields returned to and EU wheat prices - appears to be easing now
activity etc. Over the least few months these the 2010 level (46.3bu/acre), the crop would be as most of the freely available quality grain gets
factors have been broadly bearish for prices. The closer to 60m than last year’s 54.4m. used up and its domestic and export prices rise. Innovations for a better world.
36 | January - february 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

4. Recently there has been talk of it using export still running over 3% up on the year despite the groundnuts. Also, by drawing down soyabean
taxes after March to conserve domestic stocks removal on January 1 of government blending stocks, crushers will keep 2011/12 soya meal
although many analysts have played this down subsidies and import tariff protection. Although supplies up (about 3.7% over the previous
as a bullish factor. By then it will have cleared at earlier excpected to show no growth this season, season). Globally, protein meal supply will also
least 20m tonnes, as markets expected. Also US ethanol use of maize is being supported by increase by about 3.4%, easily keeping pace with
Ukraine and Kazakhstan still have more wheat to strong exports caused by lack of competition growth of consumption.
sell although Ukraine is not expected to have so from Brazilian ethanol after a short sugarcane If the Latin American crops come through with
much good quality breadwheat while Kazakhstan crop there. That said, US ethanol stocks are modest drought losses, prices will be under no
may need better prices to draw grain from its climbing each week, implying demand is lagging obvious upward pressure. The next landmark
interior, where most of it now lies, to export supply, so things may yet slow down as we move after that will be US sowing weather in April
ports. However, the US, Canada, Argentina and further into 2012. and May. Early estimates see crop area up or ®
Australia are likely to remain in the export frame The USDA recently raised its world 2011/12 down slightly but the timing of maize sowings
for a while yet. maize crop forecast to 868m tonnes – 41m may shift plans.
If these countries get normal weather for their more than last year. That’s about level with This time last year, Chicago futures were seen
2012 crops, it would not be surprising to see consumption, which grew by 25m tonnes. 4% lower by end 2012 but despite peaking twice
CLASSIC STYLE CC-HD SUPER EUROBUCKET ™
world and EU wheat prices lower at the end of Assuming the main factors in demand growth in the $1,450’s (February and August), the near I The most specified style in I Direct interchange and replace-
2012 than they are now. – China and Brazil – grow at the same pace month hit a low of $1,100 in mid-December North America. ment of existing pressed steel
next year, the world crop will need to advance amid heavy export competition from last year’s buckets.
Straight sides provide direct
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS by at least that much to defend already tight
stocks against further, unacceptable erosion of
record South American crops.
Along with a slightly higher crop estimate
I
and compact discharge pattern. I Safer – Nonmetallic materials
AHEAD the pipeline supply. Between them, the US and from the USDA, lower US crush and export
I Designed to discharge over the eliminate possible sparking from
China might just pull that off but will Europe projections, the US soyabean supply situation bent and torn steel buckets.
• The weather once North American, European and Ukraine get the same favourable weather looks fairly comfortable with projected ending widest range of speeds and
and CIS winter-sown crops break dormancy that boosted last year’s yields? Clearly there is stocks of 7.5m tonnes - a five-year high. Soya has pulley diameters. I Equal or greater carrying
– yields nearly always influence swings in crop no room for complacency over forward maize also been restrained by reports that the largest,
I Easily modified to the low profile capacities of steel buckets.
sizes as much or more than shifts in sown prices yet. fastest-growing importer, China took less in 2011
acreage. than 2010 - its first annual drop in seven years. But configuration for high throughput I Thick walls provide superior
• Will the USA yet pull a reasonable 2012 winter
wheat crop out of a challenging dry autumn/
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS at this stage, the USDA still sees its total 2011/12
(Sep/Aug) soyabean imports rising by 8%.
elevators. impact strength and long life.
early winter period & will farmedrs there plant AHEAD Big sunflower supplies from the CIS countries
I All sizes available in polyethylene,
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I Popular sizes in stock for
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more spring wheat too? should mean more coming into European crush to
• A bit of an upturn in import demand for wheat • The final impact of drought on Argentine and replace short rapeseed oil supplies. That suggests
has some analysts looking for another year of Brazilian maize crops there will be more sunflower meal on the market
string world trade • China’s maize ‘deficit’ may be smaller than as the by-product, at competitive prices. The
• Don’t forget India’s plans for another record the bulls thought a year ago but is probably trade will be keenly watching European/CIS
crop. Some of this could move onto world growing – so imports may rise beyond this spring sunflower sowing for clues to whether this
markets season’s forecast 4m tonnes – a potentially bonanza will continue, especially with uncertainty
• Above all, wheat is likely to take much of its bullish factor. over the impact of weather in timing and size of
price-direction from maize, especially if the • US spring planting weather, the timing and size this year’s EU winter plantings. Overseas, Canada
latter crop falls short. of increase in actual sowings expects to sow a record rapeseed crop but big
• ditto Ukraine consumer India has had some weather challenges
Coarse grains – a need to • Global economic problems continue to erode with its own rapeseed crop.
consumer confidence but has the potential Overall, the oilseed sector should be adequately
rebuild maize stocks
Serving the World by Design
impact on meat, feed and grain demand been supplied if Latam crops pull through. The Chicago
Maize prices nudged $8/bushel last June as exaggerated? futures markets currently suggest soya prices will
traders worried about a US crop shortfall amid • Speculative activity in commodities – they stay flat through 2012 which suggests confidence
rising Chinese demand. The crop did disappoint could be drawn to maize by the tight balance in supplies. Other oilmeals usually take their cue Now available, only from Tapco, For North American style Whatever you want, wherever you In stock worldwide, and ready
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near as much as the bulls predicted) but prices weather plays foul protein meal costs as a whole. designs in the world! These design. For European style information on getting the
still dropped by 25% in second-half 2011 – thanks 900,000 buckets in 93 sizes
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However, US and global maize balances look In the protein sector, the Latin American
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tighter on paper than that price decline might drought has trimmed estimates for global AHEAD world you operate your facility. tap into a world of experience.
suggest. Those wafer thin stock/use ratios offer soyabean supply in 2011/12 and pushed US
a potential flashpoint if the Latin American crops prices of soyabeans by 10% , soya meal by • South American crop weather
go lower than we expect or the US runs into any about 16% from the lows since our last issue. • Chinese consumption and timing of imports ELEVATOR BUCKETS - ELEVATOR BOLTS
planting weather problems. However, the effect on overall oilseed supplies • US planting progress/acreage sown this spring St. Louis, Missouri U.S.A.
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ethanol demand at higher than expected levels – for 2011 crops of sunflowerseed, rapeseed and 2012?
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Tapco Inc. © 2012 Tapco Inc.® All rights reserved.
38 | January - february 2012 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy

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