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Geospatial Mapping And
City Success: Building
Bridges And Finding Lost
Treasure
Prepared For
2013 Talent Dividend Meeting
The CEOs For Cities
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
April 7-9, 2013


Prepared By The University of New Mexico Center For Education
Policy Research
Peter Winograd, Angelo Gonzales, Amy Ballard,
Laura Robison, & Jason Timm
Overview

    • Cities And The Search For Prosperity
    • The Threats To Prosperity
    • Our Framework
    • Our City
    • The Power Of Geospatial Mapping
    • Questions


2
Prosperity Depends
       On Trust And
      Human Capital




3
The Gravest Threats To
    Albuquerque’s Prosperity Are
    The Deep Disparities Among
     Our Communities And The
    Education Achievement Gap
      That Wastes Much Of Our
        Future Human Capital


4
5
6
Quality Counts Framework: A Child’s Chances For Success

    •   Early Foundations
         – Family income: Percent of children in families with incomes at least 200% of poverty level
         – Parental education: Percent of children with at least one parent with a postsecondary degree
         – Parental employment: Percent of children with at least one parent working full time and year-
           round
         – Linguistic integration: Percent of children whose parents are fluent English speakers
    •   School Years
         –    Preschool enrollment: Percent of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in preschool
         –    Kindergarten enrollment: Percent of eligible children enrolled in kindergarten programs
         –    4th grade reading: Percent of 4th grade public school students “proficient” on NAEP
         –    8th grade math: Percent of 8th grade public school students “proficient” on NAEP
         –    High school graduation: Percent of public high school students who graduate with a diploma
         –    Young adult (18 – 24) education: Percent of young adults (18 – 24) enrolled in postsecondary
              education or with a degree
    •   Adult Outcomes
         – Adult educational attainment: Percent of adults (25 – 64) with a 2- or 4-year postsecondary
           degree
         – Annual income: Percent of adults (25 – 64) with incomes at or above national median
         – Steady employment: Percent of adults (25 – 64) in labor force working full time and year-
           round




7                                                          Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
A Child’s Chances For Success Impact The
                   Generations That Follow For Better Or Worse
                                                                 Early Foundations
                           Early                                 • Family income
                        Foundations                              • Parental education
                                                                 • Parental employment
                                                                 • Linguistic integration
       Adult                                                     School Years
                                      School Years
     Outcomes
                                                                 • Preschool enrollment
                                                                 • Kindergarten enrollment
                                                                 • 4th grade reading
                                                                 • 8th grade mathematics
                                                                 • High school graduation
                                                                 • Young adult [18-24] education
    School Years
                                         Adult                   Adult Outcomes
                                       Outcomes                  • Adult educational attainment
                                                                 • Annual income
                                                                 • Steady employment
                           Early
                        Foundations




8                                          Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
New Mexico Children’s Chances For Success Are Among The Worst In
                                 The Nation, 2013

                                                   WA
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ME
                                                                                           MT                            ND
                         WA
                                             OR                                                 ME                                       MN                       ME                             VTNH
         MT                                                 MT
                         ND
                                                                      ID             ND
                                        MN                                                VTNH                                                                          MI                  NY
D                       OR                                                                           MN                  SD                              WI
                                                                                                                                                        VTNH                                       MA
              A-
              A-
                             SD         ID             WI
                                                                 MI                  NY
                                                                                            MA
                                                                                                                              MI                   NY                                             CTRI
    A-
          WY                                                                         SD    CTRIWY                   WI                                    MA
                                             IA              WY                 PA                                                                       CTRI
              B+
              B+              NE                                                          NJ
                                                                                                                                                                                       PA
                                                                      OH                                                                      IA                                                 NJ
    B+
    UT                                                 IL    IN                      MDDE
                                                                                                          IA              NE                  PA        NJ
              B
              CO                                       NV                  WV         NE                                                                                     OH
                              NV                                                 VA                                                OH
    B         B               KS              MO
                                                  UT              KY        UT                                      IL    IN                       MDDE      IL        IN                   MDDE
              B-                                                                NC                                                      WV                                        WV
                   CA               CA                      TN    CO                                 CO
                                   OK                                                                                                          VA
AZ  B-    NMC+                                AR                                          KS               MO                 KS                                                           VA
              B-                                             AL        GA
                                                                            SC                                                 KY              MO
                                                                                                                                                                            KY
                                                       MS                                                                                     NC
    C+         C                                                                                                          TN
                             TX                                                                OK                                                                                      NC
              C+
              C-                         AZ
                                          LA
                                                             NM                                            AR                             SC                           TN
    C                                                                                                                              OK
                                                                       AZ FL                                                                    AR                                    SC
               D+                                                                               NM                        AL        GA
    C-        C
               D                                                                     TX
                                                                                                                    MS
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2013 Quality
                                                                                                               LA                                            MS        AL        GA
    D+        C-                                                                                                                          FL
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Counts Children’s
    D                                                                                                                    TX
              D+
                                                                                                                                                   LA
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Chances For
                                                                                                                                                                                      FL
              D                                                                                                                                                                                   Success Index is
                                              HI

                                                                                                                                                                                                  based on measures
                                                                                                                                                                                                  of Family Status,
                                    AK
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Progress Through
                                                                                                           HI
                                                                                                                                                                                                  School, and Adult
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Outcomes.
                                                              AK


    9                                                                                                                                          HI
                                                                                                                                             Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
Early Foundations: Teen Births Per 1000, 2009




                                                                                             Teen Births per 1000
                                                                                                     16 - 28
                                                                                                     28.01 - 41
      41                                                                                             41.01 - 53
                                                                                                     53.01 - 64
                                                                                                     53.01 - 64
     45




10                            Data from Annie E. Casey Foundation website: http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/ for 2009.
School Years: High School Graduation Rates, By State
                               2009-2010




                                                                                                                           High School
                                                                                                                           Graduation Rate
                                                                                                                                 86% - 91%
                                                                                                                                 81% - 85%
                                                                                                                                 77% - 80%
                                                                                                                                 70% - 76%
                                                                                                                                 58% - 69%


          Hawaii
          75.4%


     Alaska
     75.5%




                    Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Public School Graduates and Dropouts from the Common Core of Data:
11                  School Year 2009 – 2010
School Years: New Mexico’s College Graduation Rates
                  Are Among The Worst In The Nation




                                                                                                  The 2009 six-year
                                                                                                  graduation rates of
                                                                                                  bachelor degree
                                                                                                  students by state for
                                                                                                  the entering cohort of
                                                                                                  2003. The average
                                                                                                  college graduation
                                                                                                  rate for the U.S. is
                                                                                                  55.5%.

                                                                                                  26.9% - 40%
                                                                                                  40.1% - 55.4% (Below nat'l avg.)
                                                                                                  55.5% - 60.2% (Above nat'l avg.)
                                                                                                  60.3% - 69.2%
     AK




                   Source: The National Center For Higher Education Management Systems Information Center for Higher Education
12                 Policymaking and Analysis.
Adult Outcomes: Persons 18-24 Not In Labor Force Or School, No
                        Degree Above HS, 2010




                                                                                  This map shows percent of
                                                                                  population that is not in the
                                                                                  labor force or attending
                                                                                  school, with no degree
                                                                                  beyond high school.

                                                                                  Colors indicate distance
                                                                                  from national mean with
                                                                                  redder states having higher
                                                                                  rates of unemployed
                                                                                  persons not attending school
                                                                                  or having beyond a high
     Hawaii                                                                       school degree.
     17%
                                                                                      < -1.5 Std. Dev.
                                                                                     -1.5 - -0.50 Std. Dev.
     Alaska
     20%                                                                             -0.50 - 0.50 Std. Dev.
                                                                                     0.50 - 1.5 Std. Dev.
                                                                                     1.5 - 2.2 Std. Dev.




13                                   Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, KIDS COUNT Data Center, www.kidscount.org .
As Goes The Child,
      So Goes The City




14
New Mexico Counties




15
Albuquerque And Local Communities
             With Census Tracts




16
Albuquerque Neighborhoods: The Soul Of Our City




17
Percent of Individuals Who Speak a Language Other
          Than English at Home, Bernalillo County


        Westside



                                            Northeast Heights


                    North Valley



                                                       International Zone

                                   University/
                                   Nob Hill



     South Valley




                                                                                             Speak a Language Other Than
                                                                                             English at Home

                                                                                                     7% - 16.7%
                                                                                                     16.8% - 25%
                                                                                                     25.1% - 37.4%
                                                                                                     37.5% - 53.1%
                                                                                                     53.2% - 89%




18                                                              Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
Per Capita Income, Bernalillo County



        Westside

                                                 Northeast Heights




                    North Valley


                                   University/           International Zone
                                   Nob Hill




     South Valley



                                                                                               Per Capita Income (dollars)
                                                                                                       $10,232.00 - $18,272.00
                                                                                                       $18,272.01 - $25,308.00
                                                                                                       $25,308.01 - $33,747.00
                                                                                                       $33,747.01 - $46,627.00
                                                                                                       $46,627.01 - $69,484.00




19                                                             Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
Number of Individuals Who Earn Less than $10,000 per year, Bernalillo County



                  Westside


                                                           Northeast Heights



                              North Valley
                                                                 International Zone

                                             University/
                                             Nob Hill




               South Valley


                                                                                                         Number of Individuals Earning
                                                                                                         Less than $10,000 per Year
                                                                                                                0 - 26
                                                                                                                27 - 64
                                                                                                                65 - 111
                                                                                                                112 - 188
                                                                                                                189 - 315




                                                                          Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
Individuals Living Below 200 Percent of Poverty Level with Less than High School
                                        Education


                       Westside



                                                                Northeast Heights


                                   North Valley

                                                                     International Zone
                                                  University/
                                                  Nob Hill
                                                                                                                    All Individuals Below 200 Percent
                                                                                                                    of Poverty Level
                                                                                                                            85 - 624
                                                                                                                            625 - 1256

                    South Valley                                                                                            1257 - 1946
                                                                                                                            1947 - 3059
                                                                                                                            3060 - 4950


                                                                                                                    Less than High School Graduate
                                                                                                                            0 - 184
                                                                                                                            185 - 397
                                                                                                                            398 - 650
                                                                                                                            651 - 1047

                                                                                                                            1048 - 1682




21                                                                                  Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
Life Expectancy By Census Tract, Bernalillo County, NM (2001-2005)



                                                                                                            This powerful
                                                                                                            map by the
                                                                                                            Joint Center
                                                                                                            For Political
                                                                                                            and Economic
                                                                                                            Studies shows
                                                                                                            that life
                                                                                                            expectancy can
                                                                                                            vary by 28
                                                                                                            years
                                                                                                            depending on
                                                                                                            where one
                                                                                                            lives in
                                                                                                            Bernalillo
                                                                                                            County.




                            Source: Map produced by Joint Center For Political and Economic Studies (September, 2012) Place
22                          Matters For Health In Bernalillo County: Ensuring Opportunities For Good Health For All.
The Power Of Geospatial Mapping

     • Description: Making the data accessible to all audiences
         – Painting the picture of urgency
         – Identifying risk, needs, and assets


     • Analysis: Making sense of the data
         – Identifying gaps in resources
         – Setting priorities
         – Measuring impact


     • Action: Using data for change
         – Providing a basis for advocacy
         – Strengthening public engagement
         – Developing policy


23
A Few Advantages of Geospatial Mapping

     • Geospatial mapping is used extensively in other fields including
       health and human services, natural resources, public safety, defense,
       and urban and regional planning. Each of these fields has conceptual
       frameworks and analytical techniques that offer unique insights when
       applied to educational issues.
     • The data in the maps are immediately accessible to a wide range of
       audiences including policy-makers, community members, educators,
       students, and parents.
     • Maps are powerful conversation starters. Everybody sees something
       different in the maps based on their perspectives and experiences.
     • Maps equalize the conversations among different groups at the table.
       People want to know what others think.
     • Maps can convey the message that we are one community, bound
       together by a sense of place.

24
DESCRIPTION
     Making The Data Accessible To All Audiences




25
Story 1: The Path to Graduation




26
Percentage of Albuquerque Public Schools (APS) 3rd Grade Students
                     Proficient Or Advanced In Reading


                                                                                                                Less than 20%
                                                                                                                20 - 39.9%
                                                                                                                40 - 59.9%
                                                                                                                60 - 79.9%
                                                                                                                80 - 100%




                                                                                                       The map
                                                                                                       shows
                                                                                                       elementary
                                                                                                       school
                                                                                                       attendance
                                                                                                       boundaries in
                                                                                                       Albuquerque
                                                                                                       Public Schools.




                                Source: Standards Based Assessment, 2011-2012, NM Public Education Department
27
Percentage of APS 8th Grade Students
        Proficient Or Advanced In Math

                                                                                Less than 20%
                                                                                20 - 39.9%
                                                                                40 - 59.9%
                                                                                60 - 79.9%
                                                                                80 - 100%




                                                                            The map
                                                                            shows middle
                                                                            school
                                                                            attendance
                                                                            boundaries in
                                                                            Albuquerque
                                                                            Public Schools.




28              Source: Standards Based Assessment, 2011-2012, NM Public Education Department
Early Warning Indicator:
     Percentage Of APS Students Entering 9th Grade With One or More F
         Grades And 5 Or More Absences In 8th Grade Core Courses




                             Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, School Max, 2011-2012 School Year. Data provided by APS RDA
29                           Department. Analysis performed by CEPR.
APS Four-Year High School Graduation Rate,
             All Students, Class of 2012
                                                                                      According to the
                                                                                      Alliance for
                                                                                      Excellent
                                                                                      Education, there
                                                                                      are nearly 2000
                                                                                      high schools
                                                                                      nationally that
                                                                                      graduate less
                                                                                      than 60% of their
                                                                                      students within
                                                                                      four years.

                                                                                      These schools
                                                                                      disproportionately
                                                                                      produce 51% of
                                                                                      the nation’s
                                                                                      dropouts.

                                                                                      APS has four
                                                                                      high schools with
                                                                                      less than a 60%
                                                                                      graduation rate.


                Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of
                2012. Alliance for Excellent Education statistics taken from
30              http://www.all4ed.org/about_the_crisis/schools/dropout.
Measures Of Risk And Resiliency: Educational Aspirations, 2011


                                                                                        Percentage of high school
                                                                                        students who said that
                                                                                        they planned to go to
                                                                                        college or some other
                                                                                        school after high school.




                                                                                              Students Who Plan To Continue
                                                                                              Their Education
                                                                                                         82% - 90%
                                                                                                         71% - 80%
                                                                                                         64% - 70%
                                                                                                         55% - 60%
                                                                                                        No Data

                                                                                                   No Data




                    Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education and U.S.
                    Centers For Disease Control and Prevention, 2011. Students affirmed the statement: “I plan to go to college or some other
                    school after high school.” NOTE: Moderately low reliability for Otero, Roosevelt, Sandoval, and Sierra Counties, unreliable data
31                  for Chaves County, and very low reliability for Dona Ana and Eddy Counties.
Percentage of APS Students Attending New Mexico Colleges
              Who Took Remedial Courses, 2000-2009,
                      By Sending High School




                 Source: “Ready For College? A Report on New Mexico’s High School Graduates Who Take Remedial Courses In
                 College,” June 2010, New Mexico Office of Education Accountability. Data were unavailable for Volcano Vista &
32               Atrisco Heritage Academy.
University of New Mexico Six-Year Graduation Rate,
                 by Sending APS High School




             Source: UNM Office of Institutional Research. The six-year graduation rate is the percentage of first-time, full-time, degree
             seeking students each Fall semester who graduate with a Bachelors degree or PharmD degree, or who are enrolled in the fourth
             fall of the PharmD Program within six years (this is the definition of Graduation Rate as reported to the Federal Department of
33           Education IPEDS system). The data reported here are for the 2004 student cohort.
Percentage of Individuals 25 and Older With a Bachelor’s Degree or
                          Higher, Bernalillo County

                     Westside



                                                              Northeast Heights


                                 North Valley

                                                                       International Zone


                                                University/
                                                Nob Hill




                  South Valley




                                                                                                           Percent of Individuals With
                                                                                                           a Bachelor's Degree or Higher
                                                                                                                   0% - 20.9%
                                                                                                                   21% - 39.2%
                                                                                                                   39.3% - 100%




34                                                                           Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
Story 2: The Challenge Of Truancy




35
Habitual Truancy Is A Problem Across New Mexico

                                                                                     50,929 Students Enrolled Are
                                                                                     Enrolled In These 66 Of New
                                                                                         Mexico’s 89 Districts:
              51,034                                                            BERNALILLO, BLOOMFIELD, LOVINGTON, TAOS,
                                                                              PORTALES, RUIDOSO, POJOAQUE, LAS VEGAS CITY,
             Students

                                                  >
                                                                              SOCORRO, WEST LAS VEGAS, ZUNI, HATCH, TRUTH
               Were                                                           OR CONSEQUENCES, COBRE, RATON, TUCUMCARI,
                                                                                 DEXTER, TULAROSA, ESTANCIA, DULCE, CUBA,
            Habitually                                                       PECOS, SANTA ROSA, LORDSBURG, LOVING, EUNICE,
                                                                               CLAYTON, TEXICO, QUESTA, CAPITAN, PEÑASCO,
             Truant In                                                        MORA, JEMEZ VALLEY, CIMARRON, MAGDALENA,
                                                                                CLOUDCROFT, HAGERMAN, CHAMA, JAL, MESA
            2011-2012                                                         VISTA, JEMEZ MOUNTAIN, MOUNTAINAIR, TATUM,
                                                                                 FT. SUMNER, FLOYD, ANIMAS, DORA, LOGAN,
                                                                                SPRINGER, MELROSE, QUEMADO, CARRIZOZO,
                                                                              RESERVE, HONDO, SAN JON, LAKE ARTHUR, ELIDA,
                                                                             GRADY, VAUGHN, DES MOINES, MAXWELL, CORONA,
     If All These Students Were In One                                            HOUSE, WAGON MOUND, ROY, MOSQUERO
     District, It Would Be The Second
     Largest District In New Mexico And
     Twice The Size of Las Cruces



                                   Source: NM Public Education Department: 2010SY 40D Enrollment by District; Habitual Truant Students By District and
36                                 School Type 2011-2012
Percentage Of APS Elementary School Students Who Were
                  Habitually Truant In 2011-2012




                    Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a
37                  Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
Percentage Of APS Middle School Students Who Were
                Habitually Truant In 2011-2012




                 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a
38               Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were
              Habitually Truant In 2011-2012




                  Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a
39                Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
Story 3: Risk And Resiliency




40
The New Mexico Youth Risk & Resiliency Survey (YRRS)
     • The YRRS is part of the CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System
       (YRBSS) and is conducted by the New Mexico Departments of Health
       and Public Education with the assistance of the Prevention Research
       Center in the UNM School of Medicine.
     • The YRRS is an important survey that examines risk behaviors and
       resiliency (protective) factors of New Mexico high school and middle
       school students.
     • The RISK behaviors covered include alcohol and drug use, unintentional
       injury, violence, suicidal ideation, tobacco use, sexual activity, physical
       activity and nutrition.
     • The RESILIENCY factors covered include relationships in the family,
       school, community, and with peers; participation in sports, clubs, other
       group activities, and hobbies; and health status issues.


                         Sources: www.youthrisk.org. Green D, Peñaloza L, and FitzGerald C. 2012. New Mexico Youth Risk & Resiliency Survey: High
                         School Survey Results 2011. Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, School and Family
41                       Support Bureau, New Mexico Public Education Department, and University of New Mexico Prevention Research Center.
Percentage Of Middle School Students Who
      Seriously Considered Attempting Suicide




                Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public
                Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During the past
                12 months, did you ever seriously consider attempting suicide?” The percentage reported here reflects
42              respondents who answered “Yes.”
Percentage Of High School Students
     Who Were In A Physical Fight On School Property




                 Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public
                 Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During the past
                 12 months, how many times were you in a physical fight on school property?” The percentage reported here
43               reflects respondents who answered one or more times.
Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Reported Using
            Heroin, Cocaine, Or Meth At Least Once In Their Lives
20%
                                                19%

18%                                                                      17%
                                                                                                                     16%                                                   16%
16%                                 15%
                                                              14%                                                                         14%
14%                                                                                            13%        13%                   13%                  13%
                        13%

12%                                                                         11%     11%                                                                         11%
                                                                                                                                                                              10%
10%                                                   9%               9%                                                     9%   9%         9%                         9%
                                                                 8%                                          8%                                                    8%
 8%                                            7%                                      7%         7%    7%              7%               7%        7%   7%    7%
                              6%
                                                                                             6%
 6%                                       5%                5%
                   5%
              4%                   4%                                             4%                               4%
 4%
      3% 3%

 2%

 0%




                                                                 Heroin           Cocaine              Methamphetamine
                                                           Source: APS and state high school data taken from New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009. Students were
                                                           asked the following three questions: “During your life, how many times have you used any form of cocaine, including
                                                           powder, crack, or freebase?” “During your life, how many times have you used heroin (also called smack, junk, or China
                                                           White)?” “During your life, how many times have you used methamphetamines (also called speed, crystal, crank, or
                                                           ice)?” The percentages reported here reflect respondents who reported using the given drug one or more times.
44                                                         National data taken from High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2009, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.
Percentage of Students Who
     Report Not Having A Parent Or Adult At Home
        Who Is Interested In Their School Work




          Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009. Students were asked to comment on the statement, “In
          my home, there is a parent or some other adult who is interested in my school work.” The percentage reported here
45        reflects respondents who answered, “Not true at all.”
Key Outcomes Of High School Students Experiencing
       High & Low Levels Of Caring And Supportive Relationships With
                        Parents, New Mexico, 2009
     60%
                                                                                                             53.4%

     50%

                                                40.5%
     40%                                                                                                                         36.6%
              34.8%         34.3%
                                                                                                       30.7%
     30%
                                                                                         24.3%                              25.3%
                                          21.4%
                       19.7%
     20%   18.3%

                                                                    10.9%
     10%
                                                                                    4.9%
                                                               3.5%

     0%
           Cigarette     Binge            Marijuana             Cocaine         Suicide (past           Physical          Overweight
           Smokers      Drinkers           Users                 Users           12 months)              Fight             or Obese

           Students Experiencing High Levels of Care                  Students Experiencing Low Levels of Care


                           Source: New Mexico Epidemiology, 2010. (http://nmhealth.org/erd/HealthData/pdf/ER%20YRRS%20092410.pdf).
46                         National data taken from High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2009, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.
ANALYSIS
     Making Sense Of The Data




47
Change Across The
     Cradle-To-Career Continuum




48
Habitual Truancy In APS Elementary, Middle, And High Schools
              Elementary School

                                                                                                         Percent Habitually
                                                                                                         Truant Students
                                                                                                                0.4% - 5%
                                                                                                                5.1% - 10%
                                                                                                                10.1% - 20%
                                                             Middle School                                      Greater than 20%
                                                                                                         high




                                                                                                                   High School

     These maps show truancy moving like a red tide
     that engulfs Albuquerque Public Schools students
     by the time they are in high school.



                            Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a
49
                            Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
Identifying Gaps In Resources




50
Percentage Of High School Students
      Who Have Had Sexual Intercourse




           Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public
           Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During your life,
           with how many people have you had sexual intercourse?” The percentage reported here reflects respondents
51         who answered one or more people.
Teen Birth Rate, Ages 15-19

                                                                               The data point in each
                                                                               census tract represents
                                                                               the number of live
                                                                               births to teen women
                                                                               per 1000 teen women,
                                                                               over the period 2001-
                                                                               2005.

                                                                               For example, the census
                                                                               tract in the center with
                                                                               a teen birth rate of
                                                                               106.4 means that there
                                                                               were 106 live births to
                                                                               teen women for every
                                                                               1000 teen women who
                                                                               live in the census tract.




      Source: New Mexico Community Data Collaborative. The rates shown here reflects the average number of children
      per 1000 women born to teen mothers (ages 15-19) between 2001 and 2005. Rates are reported by census tract;
      high school boundaries are overlaid to provide perspective. In 2005, the statewide teen birth rate was 62 per 1000,
52    and the nationwide rate was 40 per 1000 (Kids Count Data Center, http://datacenter.kidscount.org).
Capacity Of 4- And 5-Star Licensed Child Care Centers




                                                                                                               Above
                                                                                                               national
                                                                                                               average




                  Source: New Mexico Community Data Collaborative, December 2010. Enrollment data are reported by
53                program site. Elementary school boundaries are overlaid to provide perspective.
Exploring Visual Correlations




54
Relationship Between Elementary Grades
               And Elementary Student Mobility



                                                                                   Elementary School
                                                                                   Grades
                                                                                   !
                                                                                   (   A

                                                                                   !
                                                                                   (   B

                                                                                   !
                                                                                   (   C

                                                                                   !
                                                                                   (   D

                                                                                   !
                                                                                   (   F


What is                                                                           Elementary School
                                                                                  Mobility
going on                                                                               5.2% - 12.7%

with                                                                                   12.8% - 19.2%
                                                                                       19.3% - 25%
these                                                                                  25.1% - 33%

schools?                                                                               33.1% - 53.2%
                                                                                           33.1% - 53.2%




                                                                                    Grey outlines show
                                                                                    elementary
                                                                                    school attendance
                                                                                    boundaries.




                        Source: School grades from New Mexico Public Education Department website
55                      http://webapp2.ped.state.nm.us/SchoolData/SchoolGrading.aspx.
Are These Schools Beating the
                 Odds?
          Graduation Rate > 70%,
       Remediation Rate At UNM < 30%,
            Child Poverty > 30%
                     Total School
                      Enrollment    Graduation   Remediation
      High School    (2011-2012)       Rate         Rate
     Chaparral
     High                   1,080        77.8%         25.0%
     Logan High               127        86.6%         16.7%
     Magdalena
     High                     127        72.9%         28.6%
     Mosquero
     High                      27        98.0%          0.0%

     Tularosa High            273        86.5%         14.3%

                     Percent of Children in
                     Poverty in District
                            0% - 10%
                            11% - 21%
                            22% - 30%
                            31% - 39%
                            40% - 51%




56
Setting Priorities




57
Creating Indices

     • The previous maps have demonstrated the power of viewing
       single and multiple variables on a map. An index combines
       multiple variables and provides a means of ranking these in an
       objective way.
     • Indices can support decisions about where to allocate funds and
       focus resources.
     • Indices can focus attention on negative (risk) factors, or positive
       (opportunity) factors.
     • The Kirwan Institute1 at Ohio State University and The Trust for
       Public Land2 have both used index mapping to compel
       community conversation and action in relation to urban
       planning issues.
                           1Reece  , Jason, Christy Rogers, Matt Martin, Liz Colombo, Dwight Holley, Melissa Lindsjo (2012), Neighborhoods
                           and Community Development in Franklin County,
                           Kirwan Institute, Ohio State University.
                           2Trust for Public Land, http://oregonexplorer.info/deschutes/MappingTools/GreenprintMaps
58
Child Maltreatment Risk Factors And Opportunity Mapping In
                          Bernalillo County
 The CDC has identified several factors related to high risk for child maltreatment. The
 following maps show areas where risks for these factors are lower and higher in Bernalillo
 County. The goal is to introduce a possible technique for identifying neighborhoods that may
 benefit from resources.
 • The best opportunity for children to grow up without becoming victims of maltreatment
     include:
       – Having parents with higher education levels;
       – Living in a household with 2 parents;
       – Living in a household with income above poverty level;
       – Living in a household with fewer dependent children;
       – Living in neighborhoods with low unemployment;
       – Living in neighborhoods where people have lived at least a year in the same house;
       – Living in neighborhoods with a lower density of alcohol outlets.

 Where are these areas in Bernalillo County?


                                    Source: http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/childmaltreatment/riskprotectivefactors.html
59
Individual Child Maltreatment Risk Mitigation Factors




       Education Greater Than AA Degree                     Few Single Parent Households                    Few Families Living Under Poverty Level




     Low Residential Mobility             Low Unemployment                         Smaller Family Size                    Few Alcohol Licenses




                                     Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility,
                                     family poverty model input layers from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial
                                     Census, census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community
60                                   Data Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
Opportunity For A Safe Childhood

        Westside



                                                  Northeast Heights


                      North Valley
                                                                                             Based on the CDC factors,
                                                             International Zone              tracts with a
                                                                                             higher score have fewer
                                        University/
                                        Nob Hill                                             child maltreatment
                                                                                             indicators.

     South Valley



                                                                                                   Opportunity Score
                                                                                                          High
                                                                                                          Moderately high
                                                                                                          Average
                                                                                                          Moderately low
                                                                                                          Low


                                                                                                         Low




             Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility, family poverty model input layers from the
             U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census , census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community Data
61           Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
Using The Maps To Address Issues Of Community Equity:
     Where Are The Hispanic Children In Relation To Opportunity?

                 Westside


                                                                                                             This map clearly
                                                                                                             shows the
                                                               Northeast Heights
                                                                                                             concentration of
                                                                                                             Hispanic children
                                 North Valley                                                                under the age of 5 in
                                                                       International Zone
                                                                                                             lower opportunity
                                                                                                             areas.
                                                University/
                                                Nob Hill
                                                                                                              Opportunity Score
                                                                                                                      High
              South Valley                                                                                            Moderately high
                                                                                                                      Average
                                                                                                                      Moderately low
                                                                                                                      Low

                                                                                                             Number of Hispanic
                                                                                                                    Low
                                                                                                             Children Under Age 5
                                                                                                                    4 - 85
                                                                                                                    86 - 185                     BerncoTr
                                                                                                                    186 - 325
                                                                                                                    326 - 525
                                                                                                                    526 - 761



                             Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility, family poverty model input layers from the
                             U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census , census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community Data
62                           Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
Measuring Impact




63
Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were
              Habitually Truant In 2011-2012




                 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a
64               Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
Change In Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were
              Habitually Truant 2010-2011 To 2011-2012




                     Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department. A student is identified as a Habitual Truant when the
65                   student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
APS Four-Year High School Graduation Rate,
             All Students, Class Of 2012
                                                                                                  According to the
                                                                                                  Alliance for
                                                                                                  Excellent
                                                                                                  Education, there
                                                                                                  are nearly 2000
                                                                                                  high schools
                                                                                                  nationally that
                                                                                                  graduate less
                                                                                                  than 60% of their
                                                                                                  students within
                                                                                                  four years.

                                                                                                  These schools
                                                                                                  disproportionately
                                                                                                  produce 51% of
                                                                                                  the nation’s
                                                                                                  dropouts.

                                                                                                  APS has four
                                                                                                  high schools with
                                                                                                  less than a 60%
                                                                                                  graduation rate.


               Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012. Alliance
               for Excellent Education statistics taken from http://www.all4ed.org/about_the_crisis/schools/dropout.
66
Change In APS High School Graduation Rate 2010-2011 To 2011-2012




                                              Change in Graduation Rate, 2011-2012
               -4.1 - -2.0 (Large Decrease)   -1.9 - 0.0 (Small Decrease)          0.1 - 2.0 (Small Increase)   2.1 - 12.0 (Large Increase)

                                                              Data Not Available

                                                             Data Not Available


67                                                              Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate.
ACTION
     Using Data For Change




68
How The Maps Have Supported Action

     • Developing State Policy
        • Early Childhood
        • Truancy
        • Dual Credit
        • Afterschool
     • Engaging Community, Building Relationships & Mapping
       Assets
        • Mission: Graduate
        • The Unidos Project for Latino Student Success


69
60,000 NEW DEGREES BY 2020




70
• Goal: To add 60,000 new associate’s, bachelor’s, or graduate
       degrees by 2020.
     • Objectives:
       1. Eliminate achievement gaps.
       2. Increase high school graduation rates.
       3. Increase college and university enrollment.
       4. Increase college and university graduation rates.
       5. Align these education objectives with economic growth and
          ensure that all graduates have local opportunities for gainful
          employment.


71
Percentage of Individuals with Income
     Less than 185% of the Federal Poverty Level




72                   Source: U.S. Census 2010, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Five-Year Estimates.
Four-Year High School Graduation Rate,
                  All Students




73                Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012.
Four-Year High School Graduation Rate,
               Hispanic Students




74            Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012.
Educational Attainment In Central New Mexico
     Adults 25 And Over, With An Associate’s, Bachelor’s, Or Graduate Degree, 2011


                                     Less than 19.4%
                                     19.4 - 32.8%
                                     32.8 - 42.2%
                                     42.2 - 55.6%
                                     55.6 - 78.0%
                                                                45
                                                                                        38.8    37.2
                                                                40    35.8
                                                                35             32.8
                                                                30
                                                                25                                                23.2
                                                                                                         20.3
                                                                20
                                                                15
                                                                10
                                                                 5
                                                                 0




75                                                     Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 2011, 5-Year Estimates
How Does Albuquerque Compare to Other Communities?
                   Percentage of the Population, 25-64 Years of Age,
                        With an Associate's Degree or Higher
       San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area                                                                                 54.3%

                        Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area                                                                                52.5%

            Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area                                                                         48.1%

       Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area                                                                        47.3%

                    Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area                                                                  46.1%

     Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area                                                               43.6%

                        Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area                                                     40.3%

                    Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metro Area                                                       40.2%

                              Tucson, AZ Metro Area                                                    38.6%

                       Albuquerque, NM Metro Area                                                     38.0%

                      Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area                                                35.4%

                               Tulsa, OK Metro Area                                               35.3%

                        Reno-Sparks, NV Metro Area                                                35.2%

                  Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Metro Area                                     29.6%

                              El Paso, TX Metro Area                                 27.8%

            McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metro Area                        20.9%

                                                    0.0%   10.0%   20.0%            30.0%            40.0%                50.0%            60.0%

76                                                                           Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 2010, 5-Year Estimates.
February 2013




     The Unidos Project for
     Latino Student Success
     Getting to the Big Goal in Albuquerque by 2025




77
The Unidos Acequia Metaphor:
                         Four Strategic Focus Areas
      1.      Opening the Gate: Redefining and Scaling Up Services to
              Support Students and Families (Abriendo La Compuerta)
      2.      Increasing the Flow: Helping Students and Families
              Understand the Transformational Power of Education
              (Aumentando La Corriente)
      3.      Reclaiming the Flow: Bringing Students Back (Recuperando
              La Corriente)
      4.      Removing Barriers: Institutional Development to Facilitate
              Seamless Transitions (La Limpia)




     Photo credit: New Mexico Acequia Association, http://www.lasacequias.org/

78
Our Prosperity
Depends On Our City’s
Ability To Cultivate Its
    Most Precious
      Resources




79
QUESTIONS?




80
For More Information

     Peter Winograd, Ph.D. (pkwinograd@yahoo.com)
       Angelo J. Gonzales, Ph.D. (ajg47@unm.edu)
            Amy Ballard (aballard@unm.edu)
           Laura Robison (lrobison@unm.edu)
             Jason Timm (jtimm@unm.edu)
           Center for Education Policy Research
              The University of New Mexico
                   http://cepr.unm.edu



81

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Geospatial Mapping and City Success

  • 1. Geospatial Mapping And City Success: Building Bridges And Finding Lost Treasure Prepared For 2013 Talent Dividend Meeting The CEOs For Cities Philadelphia, Pennsylvania April 7-9, 2013 Prepared By The University of New Mexico Center For Education Policy Research Peter Winograd, Angelo Gonzales, Amy Ballard, Laura Robison, & Jason Timm
  • 2. Overview • Cities And The Search For Prosperity • The Threats To Prosperity • Our Framework • Our City • The Power Of Geospatial Mapping • Questions 2
  • 3. Prosperity Depends On Trust And Human Capital 3
  • 4. The Gravest Threats To Albuquerque’s Prosperity Are The Deep Disparities Among Our Communities And The Education Achievement Gap That Wastes Much Of Our Future Human Capital 4
  • 5. 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. Quality Counts Framework: A Child’s Chances For Success • Early Foundations – Family income: Percent of children in families with incomes at least 200% of poverty level – Parental education: Percent of children with at least one parent with a postsecondary degree – Parental employment: Percent of children with at least one parent working full time and year- round – Linguistic integration: Percent of children whose parents are fluent English speakers • School Years – Preschool enrollment: Percent of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in preschool – Kindergarten enrollment: Percent of eligible children enrolled in kindergarten programs – 4th grade reading: Percent of 4th grade public school students “proficient” on NAEP – 8th grade math: Percent of 8th grade public school students “proficient” on NAEP – High school graduation: Percent of public high school students who graduate with a diploma – Young adult (18 – 24) education: Percent of young adults (18 – 24) enrolled in postsecondary education or with a degree • Adult Outcomes – Adult educational attainment: Percent of adults (25 – 64) with a 2- or 4-year postsecondary degree – Annual income: Percent of adults (25 – 64) with incomes at or above national median – Steady employment: Percent of adults (25 – 64) in labor force working full time and year- round 7 Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
  • 8. A Child’s Chances For Success Impact The Generations That Follow For Better Or Worse Early Foundations Early • Family income Foundations • Parental education • Parental employment • Linguistic integration Adult School Years School Years Outcomes • Preschool enrollment • Kindergarten enrollment • 4th grade reading • 8th grade mathematics • High school graduation • Young adult [18-24] education School Years Adult Adult Outcomes Outcomes • Adult educational attainment • Annual income • Steady employment Early Foundations 8 Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
  • 9. New Mexico Children’s Chances For Success Are Among The Worst In The Nation, 2013 WA ME MT ND WA OR ME MN ME VTNH MT MT ND ID ND MN VTNH MI NY D OR MN SD WI VTNH MA A- A- SD ID WI MI NY MA MI NY CTRI A- WY SD CTRIWY WI MA IA WY PA CTRI B+ B+ NE NJ PA OH IA NJ B+ UT IL IN MDDE IA NE PA NJ B CO NV WV NE OH NV VA OH B B KS MO UT KY UT IL IN MDDE IL IN MDDE B- NC WV WV CA CA TN CO CO OK VA AZ B- NMC+ AR KS MO KS VA B- AL GA SC KY MO KY MS NC C+ C TN TX OK NC C+ C- AZ LA NM AR SC TN C OK AZ FL AR SC D+ NM AL GA C- C D TX MS 2013 Quality LA MS AL GA D+ C- FL Counts Children’s D TX D+ LA Chances For FL D Success Index is HI based on measures of Family Status, AK Progress Through HI School, and Adult Outcomes. AK 9 HI Source: Education Week, Quality Counts, http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/index.html.
  • 10. Early Foundations: Teen Births Per 1000, 2009 Teen Births per 1000 16 - 28 28.01 - 41 41 41.01 - 53 53.01 - 64 53.01 - 64 45 10 Data from Annie E. Casey Foundation website: http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/ for 2009.
  • 11. School Years: High School Graduation Rates, By State 2009-2010 High School Graduation Rate 86% - 91% 81% - 85% 77% - 80% 70% - 76% 58% - 69% Hawaii 75.4% Alaska 75.5% Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Public School Graduates and Dropouts from the Common Core of Data: 11 School Year 2009 – 2010
  • 12. School Years: New Mexico’s College Graduation Rates Are Among The Worst In The Nation The 2009 six-year graduation rates of bachelor degree students by state for the entering cohort of 2003. The average college graduation rate for the U.S. is 55.5%. 26.9% - 40% 40.1% - 55.4% (Below nat'l avg.) 55.5% - 60.2% (Above nat'l avg.) 60.3% - 69.2% AK Source: The National Center For Higher Education Management Systems Information Center for Higher Education 12 Policymaking and Analysis.
  • 13. Adult Outcomes: Persons 18-24 Not In Labor Force Or School, No Degree Above HS, 2010 This map shows percent of population that is not in the labor force or attending school, with no degree beyond high school. Colors indicate distance from national mean with redder states having higher rates of unemployed persons not attending school or having beyond a high Hawaii school degree. 17% < -1.5 Std. Dev. -1.5 - -0.50 Std. Dev. Alaska 20% -0.50 - 0.50 Std. Dev. 0.50 - 1.5 Std. Dev. 1.5 - 2.2 Std. Dev. 13 Source: Annie E. Casey Foundation, KIDS COUNT Data Center, www.kidscount.org .
  • 14. As Goes The Child, So Goes The City 14
  • 16. Albuquerque And Local Communities With Census Tracts 16
  • 17. Albuquerque Neighborhoods: The Soul Of Our City 17
  • 18. Percent of Individuals Who Speak a Language Other Than English at Home, Bernalillo County Westside Northeast Heights North Valley International Zone University/ Nob Hill South Valley Speak a Language Other Than English at Home 7% - 16.7% 16.8% - 25% 25.1% - 37.4% 37.5% - 53.1% 53.2% - 89% 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
  • 19. Per Capita Income, Bernalillo County Westside Northeast Heights North Valley University/ International Zone Nob Hill South Valley Per Capita Income (dollars) $10,232.00 - $18,272.00 $18,272.01 - $25,308.00 $25,308.01 - $33,747.00 $33,747.01 - $46,627.00 $46,627.01 - $69,484.00 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
  • 20. Number of Individuals Who Earn Less than $10,000 per year, Bernalillo County Westside Northeast Heights North Valley International Zone University/ Nob Hill South Valley Number of Individuals Earning Less than $10,000 per Year 0 - 26 27 - 64 65 - 111 112 - 188 189 - 315 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
  • 21. Individuals Living Below 200 Percent of Poverty Level with Less than High School Education Westside Northeast Heights North Valley International Zone University/ Nob Hill All Individuals Below 200 Percent of Poverty Level 85 - 624 625 - 1256 South Valley 1257 - 1946 1947 - 3059 3060 - 4950 Less than High School Graduate 0 - 184 185 - 397 398 - 650 651 - 1047 1048 - 1682 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
  • 22. Life Expectancy By Census Tract, Bernalillo County, NM (2001-2005) This powerful map by the Joint Center For Political and Economic Studies shows that life expectancy can vary by 28 years depending on where one lives in Bernalillo County. Source: Map produced by Joint Center For Political and Economic Studies (September, 2012) Place 22 Matters For Health In Bernalillo County: Ensuring Opportunities For Good Health For All.
  • 23. The Power Of Geospatial Mapping • Description: Making the data accessible to all audiences – Painting the picture of urgency – Identifying risk, needs, and assets • Analysis: Making sense of the data – Identifying gaps in resources – Setting priorities – Measuring impact • Action: Using data for change – Providing a basis for advocacy – Strengthening public engagement – Developing policy 23
  • 24. A Few Advantages of Geospatial Mapping • Geospatial mapping is used extensively in other fields including health and human services, natural resources, public safety, defense, and urban and regional planning. Each of these fields has conceptual frameworks and analytical techniques that offer unique insights when applied to educational issues. • The data in the maps are immediately accessible to a wide range of audiences including policy-makers, community members, educators, students, and parents. • Maps are powerful conversation starters. Everybody sees something different in the maps based on their perspectives and experiences. • Maps equalize the conversations among different groups at the table. People want to know what others think. • Maps can convey the message that we are one community, bound together by a sense of place. 24
  • 25. DESCRIPTION Making The Data Accessible To All Audiences 25
  • 26. Story 1: The Path to Graduation 26
  • 27. Percentage of Albuquerque Public Schools (APS) 3rd Grade Students Proficient Or Advanced In Reading Less than 20% 20 - 39.9% 40 - 59.9% 60 - 79.9% 80 - 100% The map shows elementary school attendance boundaries in Albuquerque Public Schools. Source: Standards Based Assessment, 2011-2012, NM Public Education Department 27
  • 28. Percentage of APS 8th Grade Students Proficient Or Advanced In Math Less than 20% 20 - 39.9% 40 - 59.9% 60 - 79.9% 80 - 100% The map shows middle school attendance boundaries in Albuquerque Public Schools. 28 Source: Standards Based Assessment, 2011-2012, NM Public Education Department
  • 29. Early Warning Indicator: Percentage Of APS Students Entering 9th Grade With One or More F Grades And 5 Or More Absences In 8th Grade Core Courses Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, School Max, 2011-2012 School Year. Data provided by APS RDA 29 Department. Analysis performed by CEPR.
  • 30. APS Four-Year High School Graduation Rate, All Students, Class of 2012 According to the Alliance for Excellent Education, there are nearly 2000 high schools nationally that graduate less than 60% of their students within four years. These schools disproportionately produce 51% of the nation’s dropouts. APS has four high schools with less than a 60% graduation rate. Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012. Alliance for Excellent Education statistics taken from 30 http://www.all4ed.org/about_the_crisis/schools/dropout.
  • 31. Measures Of Risk And Resiliency: Educational Aspirations, 2011 Percentage of high school students who said that they planned to go to college or some other school after high school. Students Who Plan To Continue Their Education 82% - 90% 71% - 80% 64% - 70% 55% - 60% No Data No Data Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education and U.S. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention, 2011. Students affirmed the statement: “I plan to go to college or some other school after high school.” NOTE: Moderately low reliability for Otero, Roosevelt, Sandoval, and Sierra Counties, unreliable data 31 for Chaves County, and very low reliability for Dona Ana and Eddy Counties.
  • 32. Percentage of APS Students Attending New Mexico Colleges Who Took Remedial Courses, 2000-2009, By Sending High School Source: “Ready For College? A Report on New Mexico’s High School Graduates Who Take Remedial Courses In College,” June 2010, New Mexico Office of Education Accountability. Data were unavailable for Volcano Vista & 32 Atrisco Heritage Academy.
  • 33. University of New Mexico Six-Year Graduation Rate, by Sending APS High School Source: UNM Office of Institutional Research. The six-year graduation rate is the percentage of first-time, full-time, degree seeking students each Fall semester who graduate with a Bachelors degree or PharmD degree, or who are enrolled in the fourth fall of the PharmD Program within six years (this is the definition of Graduation Rate as reported to the Federal Department of 33 Education IPEDS system). The data reported here are for the 2004 student cohort.
  • 34. Percentage of Individuals 25 and Older With a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Bernalillo County Westside Northeast Heights North Valley International Zone University/ Nob Hill South Valley Percent of Individuals With a Bachelor's Degree or Higher 0% - 20.9% 21% - 39.2% 39.3% - 100% 34 Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 2007 - 2011
  • 35. Story 2: The Challenge Of Truancy 35
  • 36. Habitual Truancy Is A Problem Across New Mexico 50,929 Students Enrolled Are Enrolled In These 66 Of New Mexico’s 89 Districts: 51,034 BERNALILLO, BLOOMFIELD, LOVINGTON, TAOS, PORTALES, RUIDOSO, POJOAQUE, LAS VEGAS CITY, Students > SOCORRO, WEST LAS VEGAS, ZUNI, HATCH, TRUTH Were OR CONSEQUENCES, COBRE, RATON, TUCUMCARI, DEXTER, TULAROSA, ESTANCIA, DULCE, CUBA, Habitually PECOS, SANTA ROSA, LORDSBURG, LOVING, EUNICE, CLAYTON, TEXICO, QUESTA, CAPITAN, PEÑASCO, Truant In MORA, JEMEZ VALLEY, CIMARRON, MAGDALENA, CLOUDCROFT, HAGERMAN, CHAMA, JAL, MESA 2011-2012 VISTA, JEMEZ MOUNTAIN, MOUNTAINAIR, TATUM, FT. SUMNER, FLOYD, ANIMAS, DORA, LOGAN, SPRINGER, MELROSE, QUEMADO, CARRIZOZO, RESERVE, HONDO, SAN JON, LAKE ARTHUR, ELIDA, GRADY, VAUGHN, DES MOINES, MAXWELL, CORONA, If All These Students Were In One HOUSE, WAGON MOUND, ROY, MOSQUERO District, It Would Be The Second Largest District In New Mexico And Twice The Size of Las Cruces Source: NM Public Education Department: 2010SY 40D Enrollment by District; Habitual Truant Students By District and 36 School Type 2011-2012
  • 37. Percentage Of APS Elementary School Students Who Were Habitually Truant In 2011-2012 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a 37 Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 38. Percentage Of APS Middle School Students Who Were Habitually Truant In 2011-2012 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a 38 Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 39. Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were Habitually Truant In 2011-2012 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a 39 Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 40. Story 3: Risk And Resiliency 40
  • 41. The New Mexico Youth Risk & Resiliency Survey (YRRS) • The YRRS is part of the CDC Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) and is conducted by the New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education with the assistance of the Prevention Research Center in the UNM School of Medicine. • The YRRS is an important survey that examines risk behaviors and resiliency (protective) factors of New Mexico high school and middle school students. • The RISK behaviors covered include alcohol and drug use, unintentional injury, violence, suicidal ideation, tobacco use, sexual activity, physical activity and nutrition. • The RESILIENCY factors covered include relationships in the family, school, community, and with peers; participation in sports, clubs, other group activities, and hobbies; and health status issues. Sources: www.youthrisk.org. Green D, Peñaloza L, and FitzGerald C. 2012. New Mexico Youth Risk & Resiliency Survey: High School Survey Results 2011. Epidemiology and Response Division, New Mexico Department of Health, School and Family 41 Support Bureau, New Mexico Public Education Department, and University of New Mexico Prevention Research Center.
  • 42. Percentage Of Middle School Students Who Seriously Considered Attempting Suicide Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During the past 12 months, did you ever seriously consider attempting suicide?” The percentage reported here reflects 42 respondents who answered “Yes.”
  • 43. Percentage Of High School Students Who Were In A Physical Fight On School Property Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During the past 12 months, how many times were you in a physical fight on school property?” The percentage reported here 43 reflects respondents who answered one or more times.
  • 44. Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Reported Using Heroin, Cocaine, Or Meth At Least Once In Their Lives 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 0% Heroin Cocaine Methamphetamine Source: APS and state high school data taken from New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009. Students were asked the following three questions: “During your life, how many times have you used any form of cocaine, including powder, crack, or freebase?” “During your life, how many times have you used heroin (also called smack, junk, or China White)?” “During your life, how many times have you used methamphetamines (also called speed, crystal, crank, or ice)?” The percentages reported here reflect respondents who reported using the given drug one or more times. 44 National data taken from High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2009, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.
  • 45. Percentage of Students Who Report Not Having A Parent Or Adult At Home Who Is Interested In Their School Work Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009. Students were asked to comment on the statement, “In my home, there is a parent or some other adult who is interested in my school work.” The percentage reported here 45 reflects respondents who answered, “Not true at all.”
  • 46. Key Outcomes Of High School Students Experiencing High & Low Levels Of Caring And Supportive Relationships With Parents, New Mexico, 2009 60% 53.4% 50% 40.5% 40% 36.6% 34.8% 34.3% 30.7% 30% 24.3% 25.3% 21.4% 19.7% 20% 18.3% 10.9% 10% 4.9% 3.5% 0% Cigarette Binge Marijuana Cocaine Suicide (past Physical Overweight Smokers Drinkers Users Users 12 months) Fight or Obese Students Experiencing High Levels of Care Students Experiencing Low Levels of Care Source: New Mexico Epidemiology, 2010. (http://nmhealth.org/erd/HealthData/pdf/ER%20YRRS%20092410.pdf). 46 National data taken from High School Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 2009, Centers for Disease Control & Prevention.
  • 47. ANALYSIS Making Sense Of The Data 47
  • 48. Change Across The Cradle-To-Career Continuum 48
  • 49. Habitual Truancy In APS Elementary, Middle, And High Schools Elementary School Percent Habitually Truant Students 0.4% - 5% 5.1% - 10% 10.1% - 20% Middle School Greater than 20% high High School These maps show truancy moving like a red tide that engulfs Albuquerque Public Schools students by the time they are in high school. Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a 49 Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 50. Identifying Gaps In Resources 50
  • 51. Percentage Of High School Students Who Have Had Sexual Intercourse Source: New Mexico Youth Risk and Resiliency Survey, 2009, New Mexico Departments of Health and Public Education and U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Students were asked, “During your life, with how many people have you had sexual intercourse?” The percentage reported here reflects respondents 51 who answered one or more people.
  • 52. Teen Birth Rate, Ages 15-19 The data point in each census tract represents the number of live births to teen women per 1000 teen women, over the period 2001- 2005. For example, the census tract in the center with a teen birth rate of 106.4 means that there were 106 live births to teen women for every 1000 teen women who live in the census tract. Source: New Mexico Community Data Collaborative. The rates shown here reflects the average number of children per 1000 women born to teen mothers (ages 15-19) between 2001 and 2005. Rates are reported by census tract; high school boundaries are overlaid to provide perspective. In 2005, the statewide teen birth rate was 62 per 1000, 52 and the nationwide rate was 40 per 1000 (Kids Count Data Center, http://datacenter.kidscount.org).
  • 53. Capacity Of 4- And 5-Star Licensed Child Care Centers Above national average Source: New Mexico Community Data Collaborative, December 2010. Enrollment data are reported by 53 program site. Elementary school boundaries are overlaid to provide perspective.
  • 55. Relationship Between Elementary Grades And Elementary Student Mobility Elementary School Grades ! ( A ! ( B ! ( C ! ( D ! ( F What is Elementary School Mobility going on 5.2% - 12.7% with 12.8% - 19.2% 19.3% - 25% these 25.1% - 33% schools? 33.1% - 53.2% 33.1% - 53.2% Grey outlines show elementary school attendance boundaries. Source: School grades from New Mexico Public Education Department website 55 http://webapp2.ped.state.nm.us/SchoolData/SchoolGrading.aspx.
  • 56. Are These Schools Beating the Odds? Graduation Rate > 70%, Remediation Rate At UNM < 30%, Child Poverty > 30% Total School Enrollment Graduation Remediation High School (2011-2012) Rate Rate Chaparral High 1,080 77.8% 25.0% Logan High 127 86.6% 16.7% Magdalena High 127 72.9% 28.6% Mosquero High 27 98.0% 0.0% Tularosa High 273 86.5% 14.3% Percent of Children in Poverty in District 0% - 10% 11% - 21% 22% - 30% 31% - 39% 40% - 51% 56
  • 58. Creating Indices • The previous maps have demonstrated the power of viewing single and multiple variables on a map. An index combines multiple variables and provides a means of ranking these in an objective way. • Indices can support decisions about where to allocate funds and focus resources. • Indices can focus attention on negative (risk) factors, or positive (opportunity) factors. • The Kirwan Institute1 at Ohio State University and The Trust for Public Land2 have both used index mapping to compel community conversation and action in relation to urban planning issues. 1Reece , Jason, Christy Rogers, Matt Martin, Liz Colombo, Dwight Holley, Melissa Lindsjo (2012), Neighborhoods and Community Development in Franklin County, Kirwan Institute, Ohio State University. 2Trust for Public Land, http://oregonexplorer.info/deschutes/MappingTools/GreenprintMaps 58
  • 59. Child Maltreatment Risk Factors And Opportunity Mapping In Bernalillo County The CDC has identified several factors related to high risk for child maltreatment. The following maps show areas where risks for these factors are lower and higher in Bernalillo County. The goal is to introduce a possible technique for identifying neighborhoods that may benefit from resources. • The best opportunity for children to grow up without becoming victims of maltreatment include: – Having parents with higher education levels; – Living in a household with 2 parents; – Living in a household with income above poverty level; – Living in a household with fewer dependent children; – Living in neighborhoods with low unemployment; – Living in neighborhoods where people have lived at least a year in the same house; – Living in neighborhoods with a lower density of alcohol outlets. Where are these areas in Bernalillo County? Source: http://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/childmaltreatment/riskprotectivefactors.html 59
  • 60. Individual Child Maltreatment Risk Mitigation Factors Education Greater Than AA Degree Few Single Parent Households Few Families Living Under Poverty Level Low Residential Mobility Low Unemployment Smaller Family Size Few Alcohol Licenses Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility, family poverty model input layers from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census, census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community 60 Data Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
  • 61. Opportunity For A Safe Childhood Westside Northeast Heights North Valley Based on the CDC factors, International Zone tracts with a higher score have fewer University/ Nob Hill child maltreatment indicators. South Valley Opportunity Score High Moderately high Average Moderately low Low Low Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility, family poverty model input layers from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census , census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community Data 61 Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
  • 62. Using The Maps To Address Issues Of Community Equity: Where Are The Hispanic Children In Relation To Opportunity? Westside This map clearly shows the Northeast Heights concentration of Hispanic children North Valley under the age of 5 in International Zone lower opportunity areas. University/ Nob Hill Opportunity Score High South Valley Moderately high Average Moderately low Low Number of Hispanic Low Children Under Age 5 4 - 85 86 - 185 BerncoTr 186 - 325 326 - 525 526 - 761 Source: Unemployment, family size, single parent household, household mobility, family poverty model input layers from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Census , census tract level. Alcohol license data from New Mexico Community Data 62 Collaborative, compiled by New Mexico Department of Health.
  • 64. Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were Habitually Truant In 2011-2012 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department, 2011-2012 School Year. A student is identified as a 64 Habitual Truant when the student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 65. Change In Percentage Of APS High School Students Who Were Habitually Truant 2010-2011 To 2011-2012 Source: Albuquerque Public Schools, RDA Department. A student is identified as a Habitual Truant when the 65 student has accumulated 10 or more days of unexcused absences.
  • 66. APS Four-Year High School Graduation Rate, All Students, Class Of 2012 According to the Alliance for Excellent Education, there are nearly 2000 high schools nationally that graduate less than 60% of their students within four years. These schools disproportionately produce 51% of the nation’s dropouts. APS has four high schools with less than a 60% graduation rate. Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012. Alliance for Excellent Education statistics taken from http://www.all4ed.org/about_the_crisis/schools/dropout. 66
  • 67. Change In APS High School Graduation Rate 2010-2011 To 2011-2012 Change in Graduation Rate, 2011-2012 -4.1 - -2.0 (Large Decrease) -1.9 - 0.0 (Small Decrease) 0.1 - 2.0 (Small Increase) 2.1 - 12.0 (Large Increase) Data Not Available Data Not Available 67 Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate.
  • 68. ACTION Using Data For Change 68
  • 69. How The Maps Have Supported Action • Developing State Policy • Early Childhood • Truancy • Dual Credit • Afterschool • Engaging Community, Building Relationships & Mapping Assets • Mission: Graduate • The Unidos Project for Latino Student Success 69
  • 70. 60,000 NEW DEGREES BY 2020 70
  • 71. • Goal: To add 60,000 new associate’s, bachelor’s, or graduate degrees by 2020. • Objectives: 1. Eliminate achievement gaps. 2. Increase high school graduation rates. 3. Increase college and university enrollment. 4. Increase college and university graduation rates. 5. Align these education objectives with economic growth and ensure that all graduates have local opportunities for gainful employment. 71
  • 72. Percentage of Individuals with Income Less than 185% of the Federal Poverty Level 72 Source: U.S. Census 2010, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Five-Year Estimates.
  • 73. Four-Year High School Graduation Rate, All Students 73 Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012.
  • 74. Four-Year High School Graduation Rate, Hispanic Students 74 Source: NM Public Education Department, 4-Year Cohort High School Graduation Rate, Class of 2012.
  • 75. Educational Attainment In Central New Mexico Adults 25 And Over, With An Associate’s, Bachelor’s, Or Graduate Degree, 2011 Less than 19.4% 19.4 - 32.8% 32.8 - 42.2% 42.2 - 55.6% 55.6 - 78.0% 45 38.8 37.2 40 35.8 35 32.8 30 25 23.2 20.3 20 15 10 5 0 75 Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 2011, 5-Year Estimates
  • 76. How Does Albuquerque Compare to Other Communities? Percentage of the Population, 25-64 Years of Age, With an Associate's Degree or Higher San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metro Area 54.3% Raleigh-Cary, NC Metro Area 52.5% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area 48.1% Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Metro Area 47.3% Colorado Springs, CO Metro Area 46.1% Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Metro Area 43.6% Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area 40.3% Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metro Area 40.2% Tucson, AZ Metro Area 38.6% Albuquerque, NM Metro Area 38.0% Oklahoma City, OK Metro Area 35.4% Tulsa, OK Metro Area 35.3% Reno-Sparks, NV Metro Area 35.2% Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Metro Area 29.6% El Paso, TX Metro Area 27.8% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Metro Area 20.9% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 76 Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey 2010, 5-Year Estimates.
  • 77. February 2013 The Unidos Project for Latino Student Success Getting to the Big Goal in Albuquerque by 2025 77
  • 78. The Unidos Acequia Metaphor: Four Strategic Focus Areas 1. Opening the Gate: Redefining and Scaling Up Services to Support Students and Families (Abriendo La Compuerta) 2. Increasing the Flow: Helping Students and Families Understand the Transformational Power of Education (Aumentando La Corriente) 3. Reclaiming the Flow: Bringing Students Back (Recuperando La Corriente) 4. Removing Barriers: Institutional Development to Facilitate Seamless Transitions (La Limpia) Photo credit: New Mexico Acequia Association, http://www.lasacequias.org/ 78
  • 79. Our Prosperity Depends On Our City’s Ability To Cultivate Its Most Precious Resources 79
  • 81. For More Information Peter Winograd, Ph.D. (pkwinograd@yahoo.com) Angelo J. Gonzales, Ph.D. (ajg47@unm.edu) Amy Ballard (aballard@unm.edu) Laura Robison (lrobison@unm.edu) Jason Timm (jtimm@unm.edu) Center for Education Policy Research The University of New Mexico http://cepr.unm.edu 81