Within the scope of GEM, earthquake scientists with expertise in the Caribbean and Central America, also with institutions from Venezuela and Colombia to work on regional hazard modelling

1. The Global Earthquake Model
Current status in the Caribbean and Central America Region
Julio Antonio García Peláez
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale,
Trieste, Italy
GEM Semi-Annual Meeting, 11th – 12th December 2012

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE
Outline
1. Introduction
2. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme
(GCRP)
3. Contrains and challenges
4. Works in progress
5. Critical issues and possible solutions

3. The Caribbean Plate Context
Complex region with a variety of plate boundary interactions:
‣Subduction in the Lesser Antilles and Central America
‣Major transcurrent faults on northern and southern boundaries
‣Sea floor spreading in the Cayman Trough
Present day
tectonics map
modified from
Pindell&Kendall
(2009)

4. The Caribbean Plate Context
Circum-Caribbean Seismicity
(medium and large events)
Courtesy of the GEH project
ISC Bulletin (1990-2011)
(1500-1903)

5. The Caribbean Context
‣ The Caribbean-Central America region is susceptible to medium-
low frequency (high impact) earthquake and volcanic hazards, in
a wide spatial extent, with limited landmass (insular Caribbean)
and a particularly complex seismotectonic framework
‣ Risk perception in general is fatalistic (...are acts of God) or
"optimistic" (We are immune to..., It will not happen during my...)
‣ Therefore, not enough has been done to preserve populations
and assets against natural hazards
‣ Consequently, the sustainability of development in the region
will be seriously challenged in the near future if this approach is
maintained

6. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)
January 2011- The GEM Foundation worked together with The Seismic
Research Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, to
promote the GEM vision in the Caribbean,
May 2011- A 3-day Kick-off
workshop, hosted by the
University of the West
Indies, formally launched
the GEM CRP.
Experts and stakeholders
(over 70) from nine
Caribbean countries
participated: Trinidad & Tobago, Barbados, Cayman Islands, Costa
Rica, Dominica, Cuba, Jamaica, Martinique and Venezuela.

7. Constraints and challenges
‣ Inadequate human resource capacity for seismic hazard/risk
assessment in the region to accomplish the standards proposed
by GEM
‣ Lack of a regional vision in order to face a common problem:
disaster risk reduction
‣ Several national, regional and international
organizations/agencies are currently working in this region not
always in a coordinated and efficient way
‣ The available data are limited and not readily accessible and
sharing information is a critical step in the region
‣ Dissemination problems (lessons learned, main results of
projects…)

8. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)
Expanding the GEM CRP activities in the Insular Caribbean
Country Institution
National Observatory of the Environment and
Haití
Vulnerability
Rep.
Autonomic University of República Dominicana
Dominicana
Rep.
Geological Survey of República Dominicana
Dominicana
Puerto Rico PRSN, University of Mayagüez
Thanks! Maria Belen Benito

9. The GEM Caribbean Regional Programme (GCRP)
Expanding the GEM CRP activities in Central America
‣ GEM have started a strategic collaboration with the SESDS
group (lead by Maria Belen Benito) of the Technical University
of Madrid, Spain.
‣ Recently, SESDS and local experts from Central America
carried the most recent PSHA study for the region, with the
support of NORAD.
Country Institution
Guatemala University Mariano Gálvez
El Salvador Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales
Costa Rica Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad
Panamá University of Panamá

10. GEM regional cross-RG collaboration effort
CENAIS/OGS
NOEV / UPM
UASD/RD-GS
PRSN
RESIS II / UWI-CRS
UPM FUNVISIS
INGEOMINAS /
INGV

11. Working together – PSHA Harmonization schema
Open
Identification Selection
Discussion
Global Comp. New
Contributions knowledge
Discussion
Proposals for
harmonization

12. Identification and selection process
Ordaz (2008)
UWI/Eucentre (2011)
GEO-TER (2002)
RESIS II (2008)

13. Discussion
the zones are “overlapped”
around a depth of 50-60 km
Country Name Id_OQ Tecreg_OQ Top Bottom
Mexico CHSI1 src54 Subduction Interface 25 120
CSI11 src42 Subduction Interface 26 63
CSI12 src43 Subduction Interface 26 51
CSI13 src44 Subduction Interface 26 52
Costa Rica
CSP14 src50 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 177
CSP15 src51 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 155
CSP16 src52 Subduction Intra-Slab 40 82
GSI09 src38 Subduction Interface 26 70
Guatemala
GSP10 src47 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
NSI15 src40 Subduction Interface 26 70
Nicaragua NSI16 src41 Subduction Interface 26 70
NSP17 src49 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
PSI09 src45 Subduction Interface 26 50
Panama PSI10 src46 Subduction Interface 50 50
PSP11 src53 Subduction Intra-Slab 50 100
SSI05 src39 Subduction Interface 26 70
El Salvador
SSP06 src48 Subduction Intra-Slab 61 200
RESIS II subduction model. In blue: interface subduction zones, in
black: in-slab subduction zones.

14. Differences between the models

15. Testing the models with the OpenQuake engine

16. Critical issues and possible solutions (1)
‣ We need to increase our human resource capacities - More
training and knowledge transfer, please!
‣ We should increase the participation of stakeholders of the
region or abroad - French Departments (BRGM/CDSA/Univ. of
Guyana).
‣ We should establish synergies with existing and planned
projects in the region - Leverage resources and knowledge
‣ We need to create a regional culture of open data and sharing
information and knowledge with transparency

17. Critical issues and possible solutions (2)
‣ We must break down barriers of any kind
(political, social, language) and work together – faster, please!
‣ At the moment there is limited interaction with experts in the
region for what concerns risk - we hope to change this in the
near future (IStructE)
‣ We need to re-define priority proposals and projects taking
into account our needs, limited funds and the real possibility to
realize them – right now!

18. Thanks ! Gracias !
CENAIS/OGS
NOEV / UPM
UASD/RD-GS
PRSN
RESIS II / UWI-CRS
UPM FUNVISIS
INGEOMINAS /
INGV
Julio Antonio Garcia:
jgarcia@inogs.it - julio.garcia@globalquakemodel.org