The document discusses future trends in technology and the internet, citing historical predictions that often missed the mark. It emphasizes the rise of 3D printing, augmented reality, and the evolving nature of hardware and software, while highlighting the importance of recognizing technological hype cycles. Additionally, it reflects on key historical moments in internet development and their implications for future innovation.

1. Future Trends: What’s Next for the Internet Ilya Baraev, Strategy and Foresight, Nokia Design Jane F.T. Guesses at Futurity from RetroFuture.com under Public Domain baraev Ilya Baraev

2. Telling the Future: Myth Silverisdead (2008) Gypsy_fortune_teller from Flickr under Creative Commons bokur.net (2009) Reflecting on the future from Flickr under Creative Commons WM Jas (2009) Reversible tarot card from Flickr under Creative Commons

3. Telling the Future: Reality "Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years." - Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955. “ Two years from now, spam will be solved." - Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, 2004. “ Radio has no future” - Sir William Thomson, mathematician and physicist, 1897: "Television won't be able to hold on to any market after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." – Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox, 1946. Elon University/Pew Internet Project (2010) Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast © All rights Reserved Strohmeyer, R. (2009) 7 Technology Predictions That Never Happened , PCAdvisor.co.uk © IDG 2010

4. Telling the Future: Today Three Internet trends Simple tips and tricks how to spot the trends Foresight analysis tools

5. Part 1: Next Industrial Revolution Jocelyn A.H (1864) ‘ Richard March Hoe's printing press—one cylinder design ’, History of the Processes of Manufacture under Public Domain

6. Laser Printer Inventor 1969 Gary Starkweather invented the laser printer at Xerox's Webster research center. 1971 He collaborated on the first fully functional laser printing system at Xerox PARC. Coetzee D. (2009) Gary Starkweather from Flickr under Creative Commons Wikipedia (2010) Gary Starkweather under Creative Commons Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

7. Laser Printer Evolution 1981 1984 1989 Xerox Star 8010 The first laser printer designed for office use HP LaserJet The first desktop laser printer HP LaserJet IIP The first sub-$1,000 laser printer Wikipedia (2010) Laser Printer under Creative Commons Images: Devhardware , HP , HP Computer Museum Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

8. Adoption 1981 1984 1989 Images: Devhardware , HP , HP Computer Museum $ 17000 $ 3500 $ 1000 Adoption Rate Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Wikipedia (2010) Laser Printer under Creative Commons

9. ? von Stackelberg P. (2000) Timeline of Major Trends and Events (Social, Technological, Economic & Political) by via Andreas_MB from Flickr under Creative Commons Historical Adoption Patterns Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

10. Atoms Are the New Bits “ Welcome to the next Industrial Revolution” Chris Anderson, editor-in-chief Wired, February 2010 Anderson C. (2010) ‘ In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits ’, Wired © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved. Wikipedia (2010) Etech05: Chris under Creative Commons Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

11. 3D Printing 3D printing is a form of additive manufacturing technology where a three dimensional object is created by laying down successive layers of material Wikipedia (2010) 3D Printing under Creative Commons DimensionPrinting (2009) Time-Lapse Build on uPrint Personal 3D Printer from YouTube © All copyright their rightful owner Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

12. 3D Printer Evolution 1988 2005 2009 3D System SLA 250 The first 3D printer available to public Z Corp Spectrum Z510 The first high-definition color 3D printer MakerBot Cupcake CNC Open source 3D DIY printer 3D Printers from Mahalo.com, Spectrum Z510 from Cadalyst.com Z Corporation Ships Spectrum Z510 3D Printing System from Z Corp Wikipedia (2010) MakerBot Industries under Creative Commons Boissonnier K. (2010) Cupcake CNC © With permission. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

13. Adoption 1988 2005 2009 $187 000 $ 49 900 $ 1000 What happens to adoption rate? Wohlers, T.T. (1991) Installing a Rapid Prototyping System © 1991 Wohlers Associates Z Corporation Ships Spectrum Z510 3D Printing System from Z Corp Spectrum Z510 from Cadalyst.com, Cupcake CNC image from Kimo Boissonnier Anderson, C. (2010) ‘ In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits ’, Wired , February © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

14. Internet is at the Heart Software, long-tail, open source and online communities fuel the change Anderson, C (2010) ‘ In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits ’, Wired, February © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act “ Hardware is becoming much more like software” Eric von Hipple, MIT “ If the past 10 years have been about discovering post-institutional social models on the Web, then the next 10 years will be about applying them to the real world” Chris Anderson, Wired editor-in-chief

15. Online Communities Freedom of Creation (2010) Website © 2010 Freedom of Creation Thingiverse (2010) Website © 2010 MakerBot Industries MakerBot Industries Wiki (2010) under GNU Free Documentation License Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

16. What Can Be Created Now Freedom of Creation (2008) Onitsuga Tiger Campaign © Freedom of Creation Jouin P. (2010) Bloom Lamp from ArchZine © 2010 ArchZine. All rights reserved. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

17. What Can Be Created Now Fluid Forms (2008) T-Light Stick from Flickr under Creative Commons quapan (2008) labyrinthine circuit board lines from Flickr under Creative Commons Dominic’s pics (2010) CNC Milled Sustenuto Monochord Knob Logo and Sustenuto Monochord by Jon dickinson from Flickr under Creative Commons Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

18. What Might be Done in Future Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Urbee (2010) Urbee Hybrid from psfk.com under Creative Commons saschapohlepp (2005) Rapid Prototyping at RCA from Flickr under Creative Commons Front Design (2006) Sketch Furniture © Front Design

19. Lessons Learned “ Look back twice as far as you look forward” Paul Saffo, Managing Director of Foresight, Discern Analytics and lecturer at Stanford University. Saffo, P. (2007) ‘ Six Rules for Effective Forecasting ’, Harvard Business Review © 2007 Harvard Business School Publishing Heath, C. and Heath, D. (2007) Made to Stick Teacher’s Guide , Random House Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act “ The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes” Mark Twain “ It will always be easier and more effective to spot a great idea than to generate one, since the world’s creativity will always dwarf yours” Chip Heath, Dan Heath, authors of “Made to Stick” Wikiquote (2010) Mark Twain under Creative Commons

20. Learn More Environmental Scanning Diffusion of Innovations by Everett M. Rogers, Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey A. Moore, The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell, Future Savvy by Adam Gordon © All copyright their rightful owner. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Diffusion of Innovations Crossing the Chasm Tipping Point Drivers and Inhibitors Wikipedia (2010) Wikipedia logo © Wikimedia Foundation, Inc Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com

21. How to Start Read history The Master Switch by Tim Wu , Winners and Losers by Kieran Levis , The Nature of Technology by W. Brian Arthur TED website (2010) © TED CONFERENCES, LLC Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Follow right blogs psfk.com website (2010) under Creative Commons

22. Part 2: Browse the World centralasian (2008) Choices under Creative Commons

23. Web Browser Inventor 1992 Marc Andreessen starts developing Mosaic at the University of Illinois 1993 Jim Clark joins Marc to create Netscape. Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers , Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner. Computer Desktop Encyclopedia (2010) Jim Clark via Yourdictionary.com The History of Computing Project (2002) Mark Andreessen © 1994-99 Jones International and Jones Digital Century. All rights reserved. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

24. 1993 1995 1996 Images: Mosaic Netscape 0.9 , Netscape Navigator 2.02 , Netscape Navigator 3 , Netscape Navigator , Internet Explorer 1.0 , Internet Explorer 3 , Internet Explorer 4 © All copyright their rightful owner. Browser Evolution Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act 1997 v0.9 v2.0 v3.0 v4.0 v1.0 v3.0 v4.0 Netscape Microsoft Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers , Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.

25. 1994 2002 2006 Wikipedia (2010) Netscape Navigator Usage Data under Public Domain Wikipedia (2010) Internet Explorer Usage Data under Public Domain Browser Usage Share Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act 2010 1998 Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers , Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner. Netscape Microsoft 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

26. “ The most hyped of the new concepts during the Internet boom was first mover advantage, when being the first to enter a market was seen as synonymous with wining leadership of it.” Kieran Levis, author of “Winners and Losers: Creators and Causalities of the age of the Internet” First Mover Advantage Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers , Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.

27. Augmented Reality refers to a display in which simulated imagery, graphics, or symbology is superimposed on a view of the surrounding environment Common Craft (2010) Augmented Reality - Explained by Common Craft (Free Version) from YouTube © 2010 Common Craft, LLC Augmented Reality Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act eMagin (2010) Augmented Reality Definition © 2010 eMagin. All Rights Reserved.

28. 1968 1998 2009 A Head-Mounted Three Dimensional Display by I. Sutherland, Video See-Through AR on Consumer Cell Phones by M. Möhring et al. A wearable computer system with augmented reality to support terrestrial naviation by Bruce Thomas et al. via Hisotry Of Mobile AR . © All copyright their rightful owner. Playing with Wikitude outside The Bank Of England by fstorr from Flickr under Creative Commons Augmented Reality Evolution Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act 2004

29. Sony (2009) EyePet for PlayStation 3 via GaimingBits © All copyright their rightful owner. antjeverena (2009) augmented reality with LEGO from Flickr under Creative Commons What Can be Created Now Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

30. Tobi.com (2010) Augmented Reality Shopping from Weareorganizedchaos.com © All copyright their rightful owner Black Eyed Peas/RIM (2010) The Time (Dirty Bit) from Engadget © All copyright their rightful owner What Can be Created Now Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

31. Grifantini, K. (2010) ‘ Microsoft Adds "Augmented Reality" to Bing Maps ’, MIT Technology Review © 2010 MIT T.R. Parviz, B.A. (2009) ‘ Augmented Reality in a Contact Lens ’, IEEE Spectrum, Sept. © All copyright their rightful owner Sixth Sense by Pranav Mistry (MIT Media Lab) © All copyright their rightful owner What Might Be Done in Future Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

32. Google Trends (2010) Augmented Reality Search Volume Question is When? Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Search volume for words “ augmented reality” ?

33. Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © 2010 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. BimeAnalytics (2011) Gartner Adds Big Data to Its 2011 Hype Cycle © 2011 We Are Cloud. Gartner’s Hype Cycle Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

34. Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © 2010 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. BimeAnalytics (2011) Gartner Adds Big Data to Its 2011 Hype Cycle © 2011 We Are Cloud. Gartner’s Hype Cycle Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Augmented Reality 2011

35. Design. Value. Business Model. Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act WorldLens (2011) Introducing World Lens © All copyright their rightful owner

36. How to Use Hype Cycle Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act What’s here that we should be researching? What’s here that we should be using? Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © 2010 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved.

37. Recognize the hype Understand the hype cycle and maturity Timing of innovation is important Lessons Learned Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

38. Mastering the Hype Cycle Markides, C.C., Geroski, P. A. (2005) Fast second , Jossey-Bass © All copyright their rightful owner Fenn, J. and Raskino, M. (2008) Mastering the Hype Cycle , © All copyright their rightful owner Fast Second Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com Learn More Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act

39. Gartner’s Hype Curve Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © Gartner, Inc. Fenn, J. and Raskino, M. (2008) Mastering the Hype Cycle , © All copyright their rightful owner Google Trends Google Trends (2010) Augmented Reality Search Volume Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com How to Start Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Articles, stock prices, investments, etc

40. Part 3: Internet Crossroads emio_me (2007) "ripercussioni“ from Flickr under Creative Commons

41. Huge Brain Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch , Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner. “… the entire earth will be converted into a huge brain, as it were, capable of response in every one of its parts” “ Thanks to radio Nikola Tesla, 1904

42. 1910s: Open Industry Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch , Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner. Stanley R., ‘ Crystal radio receiver from wireless era ’, Textbook on Wireless Telegraphy, Vol.1 from Wikimedia Commons under Public Domain Rugby Pioneers (2010) Old School Medias under Creative Commons Wikimedia Commons (2010) Émetteur radiotélégraphique et radiotéléphonnique à arc. under Creative Commons Experimenter Publishing Company (1920) Radio Amateur News Jun 1920 pg674 from Wikimedia Commons under Public Domain

43. 1920s: Advent of Advertising Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act “ It is inconceivable that we should allow so greater possibility for service, for news, for entertainment, for education and for vital commercial purposes to be drowned in advertising chatter” Herbert Hoover, First National Radio Conference, 1922 First Radio Advertisement Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch , Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner. Jackson Heights Properties (2010) Advertisements for Jackson Heights Apartments © All copyright their rightful owner

44. Change of Business Model Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch , Borzoi Books, Homemade Dessert Recepies (2010) Old Time Radio Set , Polka Dot Salmon (2010) Broadcast © Polkadot Salmon 2007 Wikimedia Commons (2010) Industry Icon under Public Domain OLD NEW adria.richards (2010) dollar sign , Fugue (2007) Cigarette Advertising cameronneylon (2009) Broadcasting Permitted , timothymorgan (2005) Person

45. 1930s: Closed Industry Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch , Borzoi Books, AT&T Logo © All copyright their rightful owner. bunky’s pickle (2009) Walter Barnes from Flickr under Creative Commons Steve Parker (2007) RCA from Flickr under Creative Commons

46. Long Live the Web Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act “ The Web as we know it, is being threatened in different ways ” Tim Berners-Lee, “Long Live the Web” Scientific American Magazine, December 2010 Wikimedia Commons (2010) Tim Berners-Lee at Campus Party Brasil, 2009 under Creative Commons

47. Closing Signs: Neutrality and Apps Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American The Next Web (2010) Eric Schmidt and Ivan Seidenberg © All copyright their rightful owner ipadhouse.com (2010) iPad Media Application that Will Make Your Life Multifarious © Copyright

48. Closing Signs: Walled Gardens and Privacy Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American Robert S. Donovan (2009) The real impact of social networking while at work under Creative Commons Omnysce (2009) HADOPI from Flickr under Creative Commons

49. Opening Sings: Legal Right and Next Billion Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American Savon Sanomat (2009) Lainsäätäjän otettava käyttöön kovat aseet © All copyright rightful owner whiteafrican (2008) if it works in Africa... under Creative Commons

50. Opening Signs: Linked Data and Decentralization Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American Sandro Hawke (2010) Introduction to Linked Data @ All copyright their rightful owner Diaspora* (2010) Dan Made Some Awesome Flyers via BBC under Creative Commons

51. Opening Signs: Linked Data and Decentralization Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American Sandro Hawke (2010) Introduction to Linked Data @ All copyright their rightful owner Unthink (2011) Enough © UNTHINK Corporation. All rights Reserved

52. Future Internet Scenarios Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Porous Garden Scenario Moats and Drawbridges Scenario Common Pool Scenario Boutique Networks Scenarios Internet Society (2010) Future Internet Scenarios: What Will The Internet Look Like in 10 Years © 2010 Internet Society

53. Lessons Learned Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Structural uncertainties and unimaginable events cannot be predicted probabilistically Plan plausible and challenging future scenarios to expand the mindset and for better decisions today Monitor signposts to recognize which scenario starts to unfold Baraev, I . (2009) Future Scenario Planning in Strategic Management , Final Thesis Report, Tampere University of Applied Sciences. © All copyright their rightful owner

54. Learn More Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act Future Scenario Planning Black Swans Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com Schwartz, P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World , Currency Doubleday © All copyright their rightfull owner Taleb, N. N. (2008) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , London, England, Penguin, © All copyright their rightfull owner

55. We choose… Past Present Future Lessons Tools Act “ People seem to think if Web starts to wither, well, that’s just one of those unfortunate things we can’t help. Not so. We create the Web, by designing computer protocols and software; this process is completely under our control. We choose what properties we want it to have and not have. “ Tim Berners-Lee, “Long Live the Web” Scientific American Magazine, December 2010 Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘ Long Live the Web ’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American

56. Future Is Not Written Yet googlisti (2009) making ideas happen from Flickr under Creative Commons Howdy, I’m H. Michael Karshis (2008) IBM Think D100 Test from Flickr under Creative Commons Toons ‘N Tunes (2008) i believe in you © All copyright their rightful owner

57. Thank you! Ilya Baraev, Nokia Design baraev Ilya Baraev Jane F.T. Guesses at Futurity from RetroFuture.com under Public Domain

58. Copyright and Fair Use Future Trends: What’s Next for the Internet by Ilya Baraev contains copyright material in accordance with principles of Fair Use , Fair Dealing , Right to Quote and similar principles in other jurisdictions, for the purpose of teaching, research and study and other non-profit educational purposes without permission from the rights holders, in the following jurisdictions: USA: Copyright Act of 1976 , 17 U.S.C. § 107 Finland: Tekijänoikeuslaki 22§ (24.3.1995/446) Sweden: Upphovsrättslagen 8 § , Upphovsrättslagen 22 § , Upphovsrättslagen 23 § Commonweath of Nations: Fair Dealing priniciple Other jurisdictions with similar limitations and exception to the exclusive copyright.

59. Copyright and Future Trends: What’s Next for the Internet by Ilya Baraev is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License . Excluding the parts marked to contain material under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike. Those parts are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License . Excluding the parts marked to contain copyright material. Those parts are copyright their rightful owner.