France has one of the most centralized economic and political systems in the EU. It generates enough power from nuclear energy to meet domestic needs and export excess. However, France will continue increasing oil consumption by 50 Mtoe until 2020. Population is projected to grow 1.02% annually to 63.5 million by 2020. GDP is projected to reach $2,225 billion by 2020 based on past growth trends. Combining population and GDP projections, energy demand is estimated to reach 328 Mtoe by 2020. Coal use will drop to 4% of the energy supply by 2020 while oil accounts for 60% and gas 22%. Nuclear power currently supplies 75% of France's electricity but will decline to 9% by 2020 as renew

1. France has one of the most centralized economic and political systems in the European Union (EU). It is also
has one of the most inexpensive and clean energy production ability. France is the largest producer of nuclear
energy in Europe and second largest in the world behind the United States. France has a history of high
dependency on imported fossil fuels, particularly oil, as a result of the country having no natural resource
base. The price shocks of the 1970’s and 1980’s proved the precarious position and vulnerability that France
was placed in when dependency rates reached almost 80%. Now, France generates enough power to not only
meet its own needs but to also export a considerable amount. However, oil is still France’s main energy
source and its use will continue to increase over the next 20 years, but at a steady rate.
In fact, France will continue to
use consume at least 50 Mtoe more of total energy until 2020. France’s current energy mix looks like the
following:
Future Energy Demand
In order to estimate energy use for the year 2020 one must consider population and economic factors. The
role of population is clear because as the population of a country grows so does energy demand for that

2. country. The main economic statistic to be considered is gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is an indicator
of how well the economy is doing, if the growth rates of GDP are great than the increases in energy demand
will also be great. By examining total population, total GDP, and their respective growth rates one can link
these statistics in order to predict energy use into the year 2020. However, this process possesses many
uncertainties, as one is required to predict economic performance and population growth over the next
seventeen years. Therefore, unforeseen events such as natural disasters and recessions have the potential to
skew the results of these predictions. Despite these uncertainties this prediction will not account for such
occurrences and assume future growth based on the statistics of previous years.
Examination of recent population growth in France reveals that the trends are not perfectly linear.
One can see that the
population growth rates are fluctuating. The following graph demonstrates this:
These changes in the population
growth rate will be incorporated into the predicted population size for the year 2020. France is a developed
nation, therefore it is unlikely to experience any dramatic population swings. Therefore it is assumed that for
the next 17 years the population will grow at a rate roughly around 1.02%. This will result in the population
in 2020 reaching 63.50 million. Alongside population growth one must examine overall GDP and its
associated trends. The following graph demonstrates the growth of total GDP:

3. While this chart captures the
expanding nature of the French economy it fails to demonstrate the variability in the growth rate. The
following graph exhibits this information:
Economic growth rates are
difficult, if not impossible, to predict. However, from the graph of total GDP one can see that the economy is
expanding. By taking the average GDP growth rates one can extrapolate this growth into the future. By the
year 2020 France’s GDP will reach $2225.06 billion in terms of 1990 US dollars.
With these estimates of population and GDP growth in place one can predict future energy demand by
examining past energy demands and combining them with these established forecasts. The following graph
represents past trends in demands for energy:
One can see that energy demands of
the past have increased in proportion to population and GDP growth of the past. Therefore, combining the
likely population and GDP growth rates one can estimate that energy demand by the year 2020 will be 328

4. Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent).
Fossil Fuels
When examining the role that fossil fuels will play in France’s future energy mix the category needs
to be broken down into two sections: coal and oil/gas. These sections need to be viewed separately as the
amount of money allocated to research and development (R&D) by the French government will affect their
share of total final consumption in 2020. The infrastructure of industry, transportation, and residential energy
consumption must also be considered. This will be accomplished by looking at the role fossil fuels have had
over time. Together these factors can be used to determine the likely share of fossil fuels as a source of
energy. The following graph traces the role of coal in France’s energy mix:
This graph illustrates the declining use
of coal in France’s energy mix. This trend will continue because the use of coal is widely unpopular because
its emissions contribute to global warming. In fact, France has set 2005 as the date in which it will complete
the phase out of all domestic coalmines. The following graph shows the role of natural gas and oil in the
energy mix:
This graphs shows the increasing
dependence on natural gas and oil in France. While these fuels lead to greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) they
are much cleaner when compared to coal. In order to predict the future use of these fuels R&D budgets must
be considered. The following represents this information:

5. These budgets indicate
decreasing funds for fossil fuel R&D. Coal’s budget is nonexistent indicating its decreasing prevalence in the
energy mix. Oil and gas’s budget is decreasing but still substantial, indicating a continued reliance on these
fuels. In the year 2020 coal consumption will drop to about 4% of France’s energy supply while oil will
account for 60% and gas 22%.
Nuclear and Electricity
During the 1970’s France invested in Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) technology, which all their
reactors are today, and shifted their policy toward replacing 100% of fossil fuel technology
with nuclear energy from production by the French reactor type, UNGG (Natural Uranium, Graphite

6. moderated, Gas cooled). Cogema,
a French company, controls 20% of global Uranium production. France uses about 10,500 tones of Uranium
annually, 30% of it being imported from Niger and the rest from Canada, and Australia.
French nuclear reactors have proved to be some of the most economical and environmentally efficient in the
world. Standardization and mass production of nuclear facility parts has “enabled manufacturers and safety
authorities to concentrate their resources, to shorten the plant’s construction time…. Standardization
facilitates training and creates a steep learning curve for operating, servicing and maintenance personnel”[1].
As environmental concerns and the need to decrease energy intensity came into the spotlight, nuclear energy
appeared to be the best option. Unlike coal and other fossil fuel, nuclear energy releases no nitrogen or
sulphur. France has one of the lowest rates of Co2 emissions in the European union at 78grams/kwh. The
Ministry of Industry reports that nuclear Power plants prevent approximately 1.7 million tons of SO2 and
890,000 tons of NOX every year.
Currently, the 58 nuclear power plants produce roughly 75% of the country’s

7. electricity. Its total capacity of 63,000 MWE, which allows the country to not only meet its consumption
needs but to also increase exportation. Exportation neared 63 billion Kw/h in 1999 with a net value of 2.6
billion Euros.
French overall electricity exports 1990-99 (TWO)
95% of the electricity produced by nuclear energy is managed by EDF (Electricite de France), one of the last
state monopolies in Europe and one of the world’s largest electric utilities. It supplies energy to over 31
million people a year. In February 2000, France passed a bill allowing the deregulation of EDF in order to
allow those that consume more than 16Gw/h, eventually lowering the number to 9Gw/h, annually to have fair
access to electricity options and providers. The public sector will not be affected by this decision. [2]

8. The future of Nuclear energy in France is not precisely clear. After Germany announced their regression
away from nuclear energy, growing opposition has formed in France. Most of the Nuclear power plants will
need to be replaced, which will require heavy investment and subsidies from the government. Maintenance
costs account for more than half of the total operating costs of nuclear facilities.
Yet, contradictory to this objective, at the same time the government has announced that nuclear power plants
will not be charged an eco-tax, which will act as an incentive to use cleaner energy production.
Since a majority of the electricity is supplied by nuclear power it is important to note that the future of
nuclear power will heavily weigh on the future of electricity production and consumption. EDF supplies
almost 95% of all electricity but that will soon be decreasing. In addition, EDF’s R&D budget is gradually
decreasing; in 1989 it held at 40.3 million US dollars and 27.9 million dollars in 1999. EDF’s R & D budget
for 1999 was 405 million Franc’s.
The EU has pressured France to take the path of decentralization and liberalization. The EU has issued that
all the EU countries must open their electricity markets by 33% to competition. As of February 2003, France
had opened up 37% of its market. However, there is still criticism. The companies now involved in France’s
electricity market supply minimal amounts compared to EDF. EDF still holds competitive power and as a
result, can outbid and acquire both foreign and domestic electricity suppliers. Therefore the country will still
be heavily dependent upon nuclear energy but nuclear energy production will be on a steady decline and so

9. will its share in the energy mix for 2020, resulting in a 9% contribution. As France continues on its course of
decentralization and the EU insists upon further liberalization requirements, France will have to enter its
energy and electricity market in order to allow competition.
Criticism has been growing regarding the future of nuclear power and there has been a greater emphasis on
renewable energy increase, France must decide the future of its nuclear energy usage. France has two
options; upgrade the nuclear plants that will need to be replaced or to seek other sources of energy
production. Many of the nuclear plants will need to be replaced around 2015-2020. Currently there is no
initiative to begin construction of new plants and there have been talks to stop French production of Uranium
or at least curb the future increase of production.
Renewables
Sources of renewable energy have the potential to become a major component of
France's energy mix. France took a big step in the direction of renewables
towards the end of the year 2000 with its announcement of the National Energy
Efficiency Program (PNAEE). This program sets out ambiguous goals to achieve
diffusion of renewable technologies into the energy market. Subsides and tax
incentives are relied on to achieve these goals. The result will be a
decrease in the prices of renewable energies. Increased reliance on renewables also helps in achieving the
goal of a decentralized energy sector
PNAEE seeks to achieve the goals of sustainable energy by relying on three key measures. First, price
incentives for wind-generated electricity and small-scale hydro electricity, second to utilize bio-energy, and
finally to increase the R&D budget for renewables substantially. By installing price incentives for wind
power PNAEE provides the potential for wind power to reach 21% of the electricity market by 2010. Bio-
energy has the potential to reach over 5% of France's energy mix by the year 2010. This can be achieved by
continuing installments of wood fired boilers, in 2001 there was a 20%
increase in the stock of these boilers. Wood as a fuel is particularly attractive because it does not contribute
to greenhouse gas emissions; therefore it is in line with the goal of sustainable energy practices. The

10. diffusion of these technologies into the market will depend on learning and increased R&D. The PNAEE
program sees an almost 100% increase in ADEME's budget for renewable technologies. The combination of
these forces will result in renewable energies achieving 9% of France's total energy consumption in the year
2020.
Conclusion
France has three stated goals for their energy policy: security, reducing environmental impacts, and
keeping costs low. The goal of security led France in the direction of nuclear after the oil price shocks of the
1970’s and 1980’s and today about 75% of electricity is provided by nuclear power. However, fears of
environmental impacts, economic concerns, and pressures from the EU for decentralization are leading
France to change the mix of their energy sources. This new energy mix is likely to feature an emphasis on
relatively cleaner fossil fuels. Oil and natural gas will be favored or coal as they contribute less to global
climate change. Renewables will continue to diffuse into the market, but a greater pace than previously in
accordance with the new PNAEE. Bio-fuels will constitute a majority of renewable energy with significant
contributions from wind and solar energy. The energy mix of 2020 is likely to look like the following graph:
French Energy Forecast

11. Gail Sasse
Walter Rogers
GG 304
[1] Info-france-usa.org/intheus/nuclear/profile/energy/power (Introduction)
[2] Info-france-usa.org/intheus/nuclear/profile/energy/power (Energy Status)