There is no turning back. Now with a designated champion for the Socialist Party, the five major candidates running for the Presidency are in the starting blocks. Only three of them – Le Pen (far - right), Fillon (right) and Macron (center left), seem capable of making it to the two-person second round. The wild card Mélenchon (far-left) should however not be forgotten, as well as veteran Bayrou (center-right), who has not decided yet whether he will run. Both recent primaries have shown that in France, as elsewhere, the unexpected is likely to become the routine. Learn more about the five main contenders. Brunswick Paris office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/paris/

1. Episode2:
Theleftwingprimaries,thetrue
kick-offofthePresidentialcampaign
France2017elections
inperspective
January 30, 2017

2. © Brunswick 2017 | 2
Benoit Hamon,theradical
outsiderof theleftwing
primaries,hassurprised
everyonebydefeatingManuel
Valls,formerPrimeMinister,
andArnaudMontebourg,
formerMinisterof Economy.A
repeatof whatFrançoisFillon
didtwomonthsagowhen
defeatingNicolasSarkozyand
AlainJuppé.
Theright-wingprimaries
gatheredover4millionvoters
butonly2 millionvoters
showedupfortheleft-wing
primaries,callingintoquestion
thereallegitimacyofthe
designatedcandidateof the
SocialistParty.
The decline of the
Socialist Party
Similarto Bernie Sandersin the USA or
Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, Benoit Hamon
hasradicalizedthe debate within the
Socialist Party:hisutopianvisionhas
prevailedover a pragmaticsocial
democraticapproach.The unsuccessful
policiesof the pastyears,both to
decreaseunemploymentor to encourage
business, hasfed resentment towards
thisapproachand hasmaterializedin the
very low turnoutfor the left wing
primaries.It couldwell be that
Hollande’sdisastrouslyunpopular
presidencyhasnot onlybeen fatal tohis
own politicalcareerbut could also be
fatalto the SocialistParty.
Growing populism
Francehasnot been left unscathed by
the profoundanti-establishment
movementsthathavehit the UK and USA
– and whichthreatenother European
countrieslikeItaly,the Netherlands or
even Germany.Hamon’santi-austerity
stancehasprobablybeen fed by this
trend in the left primariesbut, moving
forwardin the Presidentialcampaign,
othertrulypopulistcandidates willdraw
more benefitsfrom it:Jean-Luc
Mélenchonon the far-left orMarineLe
Pen on the far-right.
Macron, the real winner
of a primary that wasn’t
his own
While the left’s primarydebate was
mired in idealistproposals,Emmanuel
Macron,former Ministerof Economy
who refusedto be partof thatprocess,
hascontinued togenerate strong
enthusiasm,gatheringthousandsat each
of hismeetings.With a liberal-
conservativecandidateon hisright and a
radical-utopian-socialiston hisleft,not to
mention the extremistsof both sides,
Macronhasa wide spaceto occupyin the
center.Over the pastweeks,he hasbeen
extremely smartat successfullyfilling
thatgap.There is one question
remaining though:will FrançoisBayrou,
the historicrepresentativeof the center-
right run for the Presidency himselfor
announcehissupportfor Fillon,or for
Macron?The coming weeks,revealing
the final details of themain candidates’
programs,will be critical, andthe French
rollercoasteris not over yet.
There is no turning
back. Now witha
designated champion
for the Socialist Party,
the five major
candidates running
for the Presidency
are inthe starting
blocks. Only three of
them – Le Pen(far -
right), Fillon(right)
and Macron (center
left), seem capable of
making it to the
two-person
second round.
The wildcard
Mélenchon(far-left)
should howevernot
be forgotten, as well
as veteran Bayrou
(center-right), who
has not decidedyet
whetherhe willrun.
Bothrecent
primaries have
shown that inFrance,
as elsewhere,the
unexpectedis likely
to become the
routine.

3. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
Left to right, thecontenders
Jean-Luc
Mélenchon
Yannick
Jadot
Benoit
Hamon
Emmanuel
Macron
François
Bayrou*
François
Fillon
Marine
Le Pen
FAR-LEFT FAR-RIGHTCENTER
(*): unclear if he will run himself or support one of the other candidates

4. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
A rugbyfan,Hamon,49, began
hispoliticalcareerinthe1980s
asastudentactivist.
He got involved inthe SocialistParty
through the Young Socialist
Movementof which he became
President.Throughout his career, he
has dealt with threeparallelpolitical
lives:Withinthe SocialistParty (being
one of theleaders of its leftwing with
Arnaud Montebourg – “les frondeurs”,
the rebelliousleadingthesocialist
opposition to Hollande’s policyin the
second term of his mandate), as an
electedofficial (memberof the
EuropeanParliament,memberof a
local authorityin theGreater Paris
Region, and currentlya memberof
the Lower House of theFrench
Parliament)and as an active part of
the Government(as a memberof
Martine Aubry’sstaff when she was
Ministerof Labor and a Minister
himselfat the beginningof Hollande’s
mandate, in charge of Social Economy,
and later on – although briefly– in
charge of Education).
Morespending,moreState
interventionismandanew
Constitution
Hisprogram outlinesradical ideassuch
asa monthlyuniversalbasicincome of
about€750per person,the recruitment
of thousandsof new civilservants
(includingteachersand policemen),an
increaseof civilservants’wages and of
the legal minimum wage for all
employeesby 10%,and a 32-hour
working week.
Very unclearwhen it comesto the
financingof thosemeasures, heproposes
to tax industrialrobots,to fightagainst
tax evasionby large multinational
companies,to strengthen constraintson
stockoptions and toreinforcetaxation
on households’assets.
He alsoproposesto legalizemarijuana,to
cancelthe inter-EUdebtsof Member
States,to createa “humanitarianvisa” for
refugees,aimedat facilitating
immigrationinto Europe.
He alsostronglyadvocatesa greener
economy,making the energy transition
towardsrenewable energies the highest
priority.
Hamon alsowantsto reshufflethe
Frenchinstitutions inorderto narrow
the gap between politicians andcitizens
and involvethe peoplein the decision
making process, creatingde factoa 6th
Republic inFrance.
Hischallengeinthecampaign
will be to avoida completedisasterfor
the SocialistParty,after Hollande’s
withdrawal.He desperatelyneeds to
reunite the left if he wants to avoida
humiliating4th positionin the firstround
but sofar he hasreceiveda blunt “no”
from Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Hamon, the socialist utopian
Likelihoodof
reachingthe
secondround:
The5maincontenders
RATHER LOW

5. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
FrançoisFillon,62,is a career
politician,withfourdecadesof
experience.Electedthe
youngestMPatage27in 1981,
hehasheldofficesatalllevelsof
thepoliticallandscape,several
timesasMinister(incl.Labor
andEducation)untilhis
appointmentasSarkozy’s
PrimeMinister(2007-2012).
A right-wingcentrist, he holds free-
marketand pro-businessideas and
has builta reputationfor beinga
cautious but determinedreformer
(he carried out two pensionreforms).
Claiminghis catholic faithand
culture,he is a moderateEuropean
(he votedagainst the Maastricht
Treaty)and embracesa traditional
stance on social issues. Discreetand
scandal-free,at least untilthis recent
month (seebelow), Fillonhas a style
which contrasts with that of the
extrovertand buoyantSarkozy.
FrançoisFillonadvocates ashock
therapyprogramfor the French
economyand a pragmaticstanceon
foreign affairs.The visionbehind this
programis hisalarmist diagnosisof the
Frencheconomy,whichhe described
back in 2007asbeing “bankrupt”. With
“liberationof the economy”at the top of
hisprogram,Fillonadvocates aprofound
changeof the businessenvironment,
basedon increasedflexibility of thelabor
market and significanttax breaksfor
companies.
In-depthreformoftheFrench
Stateandpro-business
measures
Hiskey measureto trigger a “shockof
competitiveness” isto end France’s
emblematic35-hourworkweek. From a
tax perspective, Fillonhascommittedto a
reductionof businesstaxationby as
muchas€50bn startingin January2018.
Thisincludescutsin corporatecharges
on wages (40bn €) and a lowering of the
corporatetax rate (10bn€) from its
currentlevel –33.3%–toaround25%,a
rate thatis muchcloserto the EU
average.In addition, theFrench“ISF”,or
“SolidarityTax on Wealth,”wouldbe
scrappedin order to encourage
investmentsin SMEs.He isbetting that
he will boostthe economyin the firsttwo
yearsof hismandate by focusingon
businesses ratherthan householdsand
pushingthroughcorporatetax relief.
In order to restoreFrance’spublic
financesand structuralgrowth,Fillon’s
ambitionis to completea deep and
radicalstatereform.To do so,he
proposesa cutof 100billioneurosin
publicexpendituresover the next 5
years. Hisflagship proposalis to cut
500,000publicjobs within5 years
(roughly a10%cut).In the same vein,he
alsowishesto align the pensionstatusof
publicsectorworkerswiththatof private
sectorworkersby pushingback the
retirement age from 62to 65.
A pragmaticforeignaffairs
policy
Fillonhasnot been veryforthcomingon
foreign policy sofar.Defending a “Europe
of nationsto ensure sovereignty”:Fillon
doesnot want more integrationat large
in Europeand believesthatthe powers
of the EuropeanCouncilshould be
increasedvs.the EuropeanCommission.
He believesthatthe revivalof the
Franco-Germanrelationship dependson
France’sabilityto reform itselfand
thereforeto regain economiccredibility
in the eyes of itsGerman partner. Fillon
advocatesdialoguewith Russia whichhe
believesisthe onlyway to put an end to
the war in Syria and defeatISIS. Forhim,
isolatingRussiacouldbe damagingnot
onlyfor French interestsbut alsoputs
global balanceat risk. Incontrast,Fillon
hasa muchstronger stanceagainst
China:he believesthere shouldbe
clearerrulesof reciprocitybetween
China and Europeon trade.
Hischallengeswill be to overcome
three key obstacles: Perceptionof his
program,Macronand ethics.
 Gatheringlarge supportfor
implementing hisradical reforms and
demonstratingthattheseare
financially realistic willbe critical.
Since hisvictoryat the right-wing
primaries lastNovember,Fillonhas
been violentlyattackedby many due
to his“ultra-conservatism”,“putting
the French social welfare system at
stake”.
 The rise of Emmanuel Macronis a real
threatfor Fillonas theyare both
fightingto attract centrist voters.
 Fillon, whohasalwayspromotedhigh
ethicalstandards,is facinga scandal
followingrevelationsby the satirical
weeklyLe CanardEnchaîné thathis
wife might havebeen employedashis
parliamentaryassistantwithoutdoing
any properwork.Thoseallegations
havepromptedFrance's financial
prosecutorto open a preliminary
investigation.Maybe a fatalblow to
hiscandidacy.
Fillon, theconservative
marathon-runner
Likelihoodof
reachingthe
secondround:
The5maincontenders
RATHER HIGH

6. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
FormeradvisortoPresident
Hollande(2012-2014)and
formerMinisterof Economy
andFinance(2014-2016),
EmmanuelMacron,39,is the
freshyoungfacein the
Presidentialelectionrace.
A graduate of the eliteFrenchschool
ENA (EcoleNationale
d’Administration),Macron joinedthe
politicalgame threeyears ago, after
having worked as an investment
bankerat Rothschildin Paris. As
Ministerof Economy, Macron
attracted mainstreamattentionwith
the “Loi Macron”,a billaiming at
revivingthe Frencheconomyby
shaking up an over-regulated
economy, fightingcorporatism and
promoting targetedbusiness-friendly
policies.Key measuresinclude
loosening Sunday-tradingrules,
deregulatingcertain professionssuch
as notaries and liberalizingthe
Frenchinter-citycoach industryto
foster competitionwith trains.
Sincehe steppeddown from the
governmentin August 2016,Macron
has taken a clear anti-systemstance,
refusingthe traditionallogic of
parties, and running independently
by founding« En Marche! » (« Moving
on! ») – his own party, which is
« neitheron the right,noron the left ».
At the coreof « En Marche! », is Macron’s
pledge to regenerate the political
landscape:the belief thatpoliticsshould
not be a professionper se but a limited-
in-time commitment whichcould be
embracedby any Frenchcitizenat some
pointin time in their life.Macron’sfresh
trans-partisanapproachto politics
combinedwith great communication
skills haveelectrified thecampaign:he
hasunexpectedlyraisedgreat
enthusiasm– firstin Paris andthen
throughoutthe country– becomingthe
thirdman of the election.Macronis a
center-leftcandidateand a social-liberal
reformist.He is perceived asa pro-
business candidateand hasgained
supportfrom a number of French
business leaders.
Macronhas not yet presenteda proper
electoralprogram.However he has
unveileda range of key proposalsduring
campaignspeeches,as well asin hisbook
“Revolution” published inNovember
2016. Macron’scentral idea is the
urgencyto « unblock France» by dealing
with the rootcausesof the situationand
tacklingthem at the core.
Unblockingthelabormarket,
fosteringinnovationand
entrepreneurship,and
reinforcingsovereigntyat
Europeanlevel
Reaffirming« labor value »: allowingall
Frenchcitizensto « live by their work »
(vs.a cultureof assistance)is one of
Macron’smajorambitions. Sofar,he
showcasedonly one key reform,whichis
to decreasewages’ taxationfor the
lowest-paidworkers.
Reforming the labormarket for more
« flexicurity » – a combinationof
flexibilityfor businesses andsecurityfor
workers:Macronwantsto putan end to
the 35-hour workweekwhichhe
considersa brake to Frenchbusinesses’
competitiveness. He proposes to
modulatethe number of workinghours
throughnegotiationsat corporatelevel.
At the sametime, he advocatesa
profoundreform of continuouslearning
soas to reinforceworkers’rightsand
give them adaptabilityto new jobs
throughouttheir work life.
Macronalsowantsto foster
entrepreneurshipthroughfurther
administrativesimplification– a huge
potential task hehasnot clarifiedyet.
Reshapingthe Frencheducationsystem,
whichfailsto provideequal
opportunitiesfor successis alsoan
objectiveforhim. Reforming the system
includesgiving more autonomy to
schoolsand promotingapprenticeship.
Finally, heproposes to rebuildEurope’s
sovereignty, focusingon fivepriorities:
reinforcesecurity, completethe
monetaryunion,boostforeign trade,
acceleratethe ecologicaltransitionand
join the digital economy. Inparticular,
Macroninsistson reinforcingEurope’s
security shieldto protect itsborders.
Hischallengeinthecampaign
will be to translatehispopularityinto
actualvotesand for thathe wouldneed
to:
 Buildand showcasea clearand strong
program,demonstratingthathe has
broadenough shoulders tobecome
President,
 Provethathe hasthe nation-widebase
to win the legislativeelections,as
havinga majority inParliamentiskey
to being able to conductreforms,
 Preservehistrans-partisanapproach
by carefullymanaging hissupporters
from the SocialistParty.
Macron, the
trans-partisan meteor
Likelihoodof
reachingthe
secondround:
The5maincontenders
RATHER HIGH

7. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
MarineLePen’s NationalFront
is France’sleadingpartyby
voteswiththehighestscorein
twoofthelastnational
elections,in2014 (European
elections)andagainin2015
(localregionalelections).
This year, nearlyall the recentpolls –
for what theyare worth – place her
ahead in the Presidentialelection
race and systematically qualifiedfor
the second round. Shefinishedthird
in the previousPresidentialelections,
in 2012, with 18% of the vote. Sheis
convinced2017will be a different
story. The turningpoint in her fast
track politicalcareer came whenshe
becamethe leaderof the National
Front in 2011.Sincethen,she has
beenconsistently workingon further
broadeningher electoralbase, by
reaching out to the middle classes,the
joblessand those forgotten by the
eliteand opposed to the fast train of
liberalismand globalization. Way
beforeTrump and the Brexiters,she
has promoted populistthemeswhich
resonate with a vast spectrumof
voters, riding on theirfears of a
gloomy futureor theircontemptfor
the “Europeanbureaucracy.”White-
collar voters, left or right, today
openlyexpresssupport, something
theywould not have dared to even
whisperyears ago. Marine Le Pen has
worked hard to distanceherselffrom
the outrageous discourse and radical
xenophobicstances of the“old”
National Front. Theclimax of this
sanitizationcampaign was reached in
2015when she excludedher own
father, Jean-MarieLe Pen, founder
and Honorary President ofthe party,
from theParty’s executivebureau.
MarineLe Pen todaycoastson this
populistrhetoric and polishedtone. She
for instancedenies being anti-Muslim
and choosesto speakaboutFrench
identityand Christianroots,even if at the
core,her stanceson Islam,immigration
and integrationof foreignersremain as
toughasher father’s.She alsoblursthe
lineson major socialissues whileopenly
chasingLGBTsupport, although avast
majorityof the Party’score supporters
arestillstrongly pro-lifeand anti-same
sex marriage.
Thisvastprocessof transformation,
whichmany arguehasbeen more
cosmeticthana deep reboot,comesat a
huge cost.From the inside, theNational
Front istorn in two.Tensionsare high
between Marine’scoreteam and the
conservativeold guard,led by Marine’s
young niece,MarionMaréchalLe Pen.
Anti-immigration,
protectionismandsoftFrexit
Three monthsawayfrom the firstround,
MarineLe Pen is preparingforthe final
battle.A formidablespeaker, media
savvy,she isnot intimidatedby any
opponentand remainsin full controlof
her image.She is weak and uneducated
on economic issues butunshakableon
thoseissuesin debates.Her detailed
electoralprogramwill be revealedon
February4th but no real surpriseis
expected:the main focuswill be on social
issuesin favorof middleclasses,
pensionersand SMEs,with an increaseof
the minimal wage and a pensionage
thresholdat 60 years.She claimsthe tax
systemwill be reviewedfor fairnessand
to prefer Frenchnationalsfor jobsand
socialbenefits.Marine alsocleverly
wrapsher anti-globalizationmantra up
in a more moderateprotectionismbut
maintainsthatthe Schengen agreement
(no border control between the EU
Member Statesbut the UK and Ireland)
shouldbe torpedoedand thattaxationof
importsshouldbe increased.Finally,her
claimsof abandoningthe Eurohavealso
been rephrasedinto a strangedual
approach, wherebotha new domestic
currencyshould coexistwith the Euro,
the latterbeing confinedforthe export
business of major companies.
Hermainchallengelieswithin the
mechanics of theFrenchelectoralsystem
itself.Indeed, one cannotforgetthat
more than50% of the nationalvotesare
needed to be electedPresident,given the
two-roundsystemfor the elections.This
remainsa veryhigh bar for Marine Le
Pen. Oppositionand detestationof her
ideasremain deeplyrootedin the nation
and sofar all partiesleft and right have
alwaysmaneuveredtogether to isolate
the National Frontin the final round.Last
year duringthe regional elections,her
Partycame out on top in the firstround
in many regions,sometimesby scores
averaging40%,but wasdefeatedin all
regionsin the secondround.MarineLe
Pen’s programhasbeen embellishedand
window dressed onmany fundamental
issuesbut it remainsextreme on many
pointsand economicallyunrealistic.Can
the great communicatorsell it to the
Frenchthistime?
Le Pen, theestablished far-
right populist
Likelihoodof
reachingthe
secondround:
The5maincontenders
HIGH

8. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
Jean-LucMélenchon,65,
candidateof thefar-left,is a
veteranpoliticianwithover
fourdecadesofpolitical
experience.
He has held officesas Senator,
Ministerof Professional Educationin
Lionel Jospin’s socialist government,
and has beena Memberof the
EuropeanParliamentsince2009. A
memberof the Socialist Party for
more than 30 years, where he
embodied theextremeleft-wingof the
party, he broke free in 2008and
foundedhis own leftistparty, called
“Parti de Gauche”, inspiredby the
German“Die Linke” movement.
Having alreadyrun in the 2012
presidentialelection,in which he
endedup in 4th place with 11% of the
votes, he is runningfor the second
time,with a newlycreated political
movement called“La France
insoumise”(“The rebelliousFrance”),
also supportedby the Communist
Party.
He embodiesthe anti-businessand anti-
capitalistleft and appealsto the “left of
the left” electorate.He hasbeen one of
the fiercestopponentsof Hollande’s
presidencyaswell as a strong detractor
of Le Pen, whom he neverthelessfailedto
beat in the 2012general election, when
theyfacedeachotherin the same
constituency. Sincehe votedagainstthe
EuropeanLisbontreatyin the 2005
referendum,he hasbeen tirelessly
fightingthe mechanicsof the European
Union,and pleadingfor a reinforcement
of nationalsovereignty, especiallyon
currencyissues.He hasin particular
been a staunchcriticof Angela Merkel’s
conservativepolicies. Herecently
convertedto ecologist ideas.Describedas
a « populist» by hisopponents,he is
famous forhisfiery rhetoric.
Mélenchonhaslauncheda large
participativeconsultationto buildhis
programwhichisso farlargelyinspired
by his2012program.
A new participativeRepublic,an
anti-Europeanstanceandthe
reinforcementof theWelfare
State
The key proposals he hasunveiledsofar
are:
 Establishmentof a 6th Republic which
wouldbe more « participative»
includingsetting upof the right for
citizensto dismiss anelected
representative,
 Democratic refundingof the European
treaties,whichcouldultimatelyleadto
exiting Francefrom Europeantreaties,
and potentiallyfrom NATO,
 Cancellationof free tradeagreements
(TAFTA, CETA),
 More wealthredistributionwith
increaseof the net minimum wage at
€1,300/monthand increaseof the
publicsectorwage,
 Rescindmentof the recentlyadopted
« Labor Law », creationof a 32-hour
working week, retirement age at 60,
 Investmentin energy transitionwith a
progressiveexit of nuclearenergy and
establishmentof a « green rule » to
protectnaturalresourceseven if this
resultsin a higherdeficit,
 Separationbetween retail banksand
investmentbanks.
Hismainchallengewill be to unite
a wide leftspectrumto qualifyfor the
secondround.He benefits from the
supportof the CommunistParty,but will
alsohaveto rallythe votesof the smaller
far-leftcandidates (NathalieArtaud and
PhilippePoutou)aswell asof the green
candidate(Yannick Jadot). With
Hamon’sprogramvery closeto his,
Mélenchonwill alsoneed to accelerate
the tone and formatof hiscampaignto
differentiatehimselfand ultimately
defeatthe SocialistParty’s candidate.
Mélenchon, theextreme
leftist rabble-rouser
Likelihoodof
reachingthe
secondround:
The5maincontenders
RATHER LOW

9. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
Upcoming electoral
milestones
Getting a majority in
Parliament willbe the
first headache for the
newlyelected
President.
It needs remembering
that immediately after
the Presidential
election(two rounds on
April23rd and May 7th),
the electionsfor the
Lower House of the
Parliament (Assemblée
nationale) willbe
organized (two more
rounds onJune 11th and
18th). These willeither
confirm a true mandate
for the newlyelected
President by giving him
a fullmajority or
restricting his power
witha narrow majority,
or, worst case scenario,
no majority at all.
Beginning of the Parliamentrecess
Presidential election
(two rounds)
Appointment of the Government
General elections
(members of the Lower House of
Parliament)
Renewal of half of the Senate
(Upper House of Parliament)
End of February:
April 23, 2017 and
May 7, 2017:
Mid May 2017:
June 11 and 18, 2017:
September 24, 2017:

10. Brunswick Group
France 2017 elections in perspective
Brunswick Group
Brunswick is an
advisory firm
specializingin critical
issues and corporate
relations.
A global partnershipwith 23 officesin 14
countries.Foundedin 1987,Brunswick
hasgrown organically,operatingasa
single profitcenter – allowingus to
respondseamlesslyto our clients’needs,
wherever theyare in the world.
The today30 strongteam in Paris was
initially set upin 2000and hasbeen
advisingboth global and localclientsto
positionthem on the Frenchmarketat all
levelsand with all typesof stakeholders.
For more information contact
JérômeBiscay
Partner,HeadofOffice,Paris
NicolasBouvier
Partner
BenoîtGrange
Partner
NathalieBaudon
Director
DomitilleHarb
Associate
BrunswickGroup
69 BoulevardHaussmann
75008Paris
France
+ 331 53 96 83 83
parisoffice@brunswickgroup.com
www.BrunswickGroup.com