Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes, Presidente do European Renewable Energy Council Conferência Internacional Europe Business - "Mais eficiência, Maior Competitividade em Portugal" FORUM PORTUGAL ENERGY POWER promovido pela ANJE no dia 21 de novembro, na Alfândega do Porto

1. Renewable Energy in Europe
– until and beyond 2020 –
Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes
President
Porto – 21 November 2013

2. The United Voice of the Renewables Sector

3. Some facts:

4. Renewable Energies mature & beneficial
• Renewables are reliable technologies against Climate Change
 RES are (nearly) carbon free or carbon neutral
• Renewables mitigate the risks of Price Volatility of Fossil Fuels
 RE-technologies have high cost decreases
 Wind, solar and geothermal energy are free
• Renewables reduce Dependency on Energy Imports
 RES are domestic energy sources
• Provide significant contribution to Security of Energy Supply
 Wide range of RE technologies are proven and mature
 A mix of different technologies and resources is available
4

5. The future: 2050

6. High RES in EU-“Energy Roadmap 2050”
Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC

7. Dominant RE-Shares in electricity sector
Share of RES-E
100
%
80
60
40
20
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Reference
18,7
33,3
40,5
40,9
40,3
CPI
19,8
34,5
43,7
47
48,8
Energy Efficiency
19,7
36,8
52,9
59,5
64,2
Diversified supply technologies
19,7
36,6
51,2
54,4
59,1
High RES
19,8
36,6
59,8
76,8
86,4
Delayed CCS
19,7
36,5
51,7
58,3
60,7
Low Nuclear
19,7
36,4
54,6
58,8
64,8

8. Reducing import dependency
Source: European Commission, Energy Roadmap 2050, Graph: EREC

9. REthinking: 100% RE by 2050
RES overall
RES-H
RES-E
RES-T

10. Until 2050: Benefits of 100% RE
>90% GHG-Reduction
Total Investment:
nearly 3,000 billion €
Avoided fuel cost:
more than 1,000 billion €
More than 6 million jobs
Source: EREC – REthinking 2050

11. Today

12. Annual Power Capacity Additions in the EU:
70% Renewables in 2012
Source: EWEA

13. 13
percent
The share of EU´s final energy consumption
(23% RES-E, 15% RES-H, <5% in RES-T)
1/4
The amount that renewable energy contributes
already to the EU´s 20% GHG reduction target
1.2
The number of jobs in the EU that already exist in
the renewable energy sector
million
130
billion
The annual economic activity of the renewable
energy industry

14. 2020

15. 2020 targets in Renewable Energy
EU reached 12.5%
RES in FEC already in
2010 = 1.8% above the
indicative trajectory
indicated in the
NREAPs for 2011/2012
Source: Eurostat - European Commission
“Statistical Pocketbook 2012”

16. 21 MS in 2011 are above their
Progress towards
2011/2012 interim targets
Renewable Energy
2020-targets
6 MS in 2011 are below their
(Status 2011)
2011/2012 interim targets
(FR, UK, LU, LV, NL, MT)
2011 RES shares of the EU as a whole
above 2011/2012 interim target

17. AAGRs needed to achieve 2020 targets
Source: EREC based on 2010 Eurostat data

18. The EU is on track so far...
RES Share in gross final energy consumption
25
actual overall RES share
[%]
20
NREAP overall RES trajectory
15
10
minimum trajectory defined in
the RES Directive
5
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

19. …with the transport sector below planned
developments
RES sector share in final sectoral energy consumption
[%] 40,00
actual RES-E share
35,00
NREAP RES-E trajectory
30,00
25,00
actual RES-H share
20,00
NREAP RES-H trajectory
15,00
10,00
actual RES-T share
5,00
NREAP RES-T trajectory
0,00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

20. 2010-2011 Growth Rates vs. AAGR required to meet
2020 ambitions
“In the heating & cooling sector in
particular, it seems significant
improvements in the policy
framework are needed.”
(COM SWD 2013 102 final)
10,00
8,00
“Current policies being insufficient
to trigger the required renewable
energy deployment in a majority of
Member States.”
(COM 2013 175 final)
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
Transport
Electricity
-2,00
Heat
overall

21. Meet the challenges and reap
the benefits of renewables!
 Global uptake of policies for renewables:
decreasing European share in growing global market
 Lack of policy certainty in Europe (policy changes
in MS and ongoing uncertainty about post-2020)
 Stable and reliable integrated climate and energy
framework for 2030 needed – including ambitious
and binding targets for GHG-emissions reduction,
energy efficiency and renewable energy.

22. The next step: 2030

23. Historic and projected growth
„Clarity on long term policy is
needed to ensure that the
necessary investment is made.“
100%
90%
80%
COM (2012) 271 final “RES Strategy”
70%
60%
BAU Roadmap 2050 (%)
50%
Continued 2010-2020 growth post-2020 (%)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050

24. May 2011
April 2013

25. Clear signal for investors
long-term predictability of market volumes and direction
 decrease the costs
of uncertainty
 facilitating the achievement of
the existing 2020 targets in the
most efficient way

26. Growing the economy
Economic activity valued €137 billion

27. Technology leadership
reap benefits of first-mover advantage
 global competition
with China, U.S.,
South Korea or
India
 capitalise on
exporting
opportunities in
growing global
markets

28. Replacing fossil fuel imports
RES technology export instead of fossil fuel imports
 550 Mtoe by 2030 (€350 billion)
 equivalent to consumption of Belgium, Germany,
Latvia, Poland, the UK and Spain

29. Creating Jobs

30. Which energy priority for 2043?
Priorities now for the next 30 years:
 fewer than one in ten Europeans
think that unconventional fossil fuels
should be prioritised
 70% of Europeans think renewable
energy sources should be the
priority energy option
 In all 27 MS, RES is the most
mentioned priority for energy
options in the next 30 years
Source: Eurobarometer 360_2013