The Forex Portfolio remains firmly negative towards the USD and to a lesser extent towards the EUR though both net short positions have been reduced in January. The net short exposure to GBP is nearly negligible now
The Forex Portfolio remains firmly negative towards the USD and to a lesser extent towards the EUR. Both net short positions have not changed much in December, but the model has also turned quite bearish on the GBP
Note: Slide 11 offers the full video analysis of this presentation, with narration.
The European leveraged finance market spent a traditionally sleepy August building a record forward calendar for September, and beyond. Returns were positive during the month, again. This video analysis details loan and HY bond activity, including returns, prices, volume, default rates, as well as trends for the months ahead.
Connect with LCD Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
contact: anna_cini@sandp.com
Leveraged Commentary & Data's complete overview of November and early December's leveraged loan and high yield bond market: volume of deals, pricing, returns, default rates, trends, along with what to look for in the months ahead.
Connect with LCD
Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
Download the slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lcdcomps
Contact LCD Europe: anna_cini@sandp.com
Presentation Bo Lundgren Tokyo 7-8 maj 2012Riksgälden
Sweden experienced a banking crisis in the early 1990s but implemented reforms that stabilized its economy and reduced government debt. Reforms to monetary and fiscal policy, pensions, and deregulation of product markets created stability. Household debt is moderate and Sweden has a budget surplus target of 1% of GDP. The central bank focuses on price stability. Gross borrowing in capital markets is growing but net borrowing requirements are negative, indicating budget surpluses.
The European loan market rebounded in July and early August, posting positive returns and demonstrating increased appetite/volume for new issues. This video analysis details loan and HY bond activity, including returns, prices, volume, default rates, as well as trends for the months ahead.
Connect with LCD
Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://ht.ly/1Kqae
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
contact: anna_cini@sandp.com
- 401kWealthPlan.com is an advisory service that helps individuals manage the risk in their 401k accounts by evaluating investment options and building customized offensive, neutral, and defensive investment strategies.
- The strategies are monitored weekly and participants are alerted when it's time to shift between strategies, which is expected to be 5 to 7 times per year.
- The goal is to help retirement plan participants avoid losses and build wealth over the long run by adjusting the strategies based on proprietary risk indicators.
- Speculative futures positions across sectors increased by 5% last week as hedge funds and money managers added 94,000 lots of futures to already elevated long positions. All sectors except metals saw an increase.
- Investors added to their dollar short positions, with the accumulated dollar short on futures markets now at $30 billion, approaching last year's peak of -$35.16 billion.
- In energy, the long WTI crude position rose by 21k contracts amid unrest in North Africa and Brent crude prices above $100. Grain positions, mainly in soy, wheat and corn, rose as well.
Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, tends to be somewhat more pessimistic than the average financial analyst and were quite pessimistic on the whole recovery since 2003, assuming the low-rate environment would lead to speculative excesses worse than that of the dot-com bubble. Events during 2008, unfortunately, proved the thesis right.
The Forex Portfolio remains firmly negative towards the USD and to a lesser extent towards the EUR. Both net short positions have not changed much in December, but the model has also turned quite bearish on the GBP
Note: Slide 11 offers the full video analysis of this presentation, with narration.
The European leveraged finance market spent a traditionally sleepy August building a record forward calendar for September, and beyond. Returns were positive during the month, again. This video analysis details loan and HY bond activity, including returns, prices, volume, default rates, as well as trends for the months ahead.
Connect with LCD Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
contact: anna_cini@sandp.com
Leveraged Commentary & Data's complete overview of November and early December's leveraged loan and high yield bond market: volume of deals, pricing, returns, default rates, trends, along with what to look for in the months ahead.
Connect with LCD
Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://www.lcdcomps.com/linkedin
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
Download the slides: http://www.slideshare.net/lcdcomps
Contact LCD Europe: anna_cini@sandp.com
Presentation Bo Lundgren Tokyo 7-8 maj 2012Riksgälden
Sweden experienced a banking crisis in the early 1990s but implemented reforms that stabilized its economy and reduced government debt. Reforms to monetary and fiscal policy, pensions, and deregulation of product markets created stability. Household debt is moderate and Sweden has a budget surplus target of 1% of GDP. The central bank focuses on price stability. Gross borrowing in capital markets is growing but net borrowing requirements are negative, indicating budget surpluses.
The European loan market rebounded in July and early August, posting positive returns and demonstrating increased appetite/volume for new issues. This video analysis details loan and HY bond activity, including returns, prices, volume, default rates, as well as trends for the months ahead.
Connect with LCD
Facebook: http://www.lcdcomps.com/facebook
LinkedIn: http://ht.ly/1Kqae
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Web: http://www.lcdcomps.com
contact: anna_cini@sandp.com
- 401kWealthPlan.com is an advisory service that helps individuals manage the risk in their 401k accounts by evaluating investment options and building customized offensive, neutral, and defensive investment strategies.
- The strategies are monitored weekly and participants are alerted when it's time to shift between strategies, which is expected to be 5 to 7 times per year.
- The goal is to help retirement plan participants avoid losses and build wealth over the long run by adjusting the strategies based on proprietary risk indicators.
- Speculative futures positions across sectors increased by 5% last week as hedge funds and money managers added 94,000 lots of futures to already elevated long positions. All sectors except metals saw an increase.
- Investors added to their dollar short positions, with the accumulated dollar short on futures markets now at $30 billion, approaching last year's peak of -$35.16 billion.
- In energy, the long WTI crude position rose by 21k contracts amid unrest in North Africa and Brent crude prices above $100. Grain positions, mainly in soy, wheat and corn, rose as well.
Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, tends to be somewhat more pessimistic than the average financial analyst and were quite pessimistic on the whole recovery since 2003, assuming the low-rate environment would lead to speculative excesses worse than that of the dot-com bubble. Events during 2008, unfortunately, proved the thesis right.
Saxo Fundamental FX Portfolio for March 2011Trading Floor
This month the basis of the Saxo Fundamental FX Portfolio model, the proprietary macro strength indicators, have been revised to make them more comparable across economies. There is also a change to how funds are allocated in the portfolio model – from an absolute value to a percentage allocation, making the portfolio easier to use. Next month there will be an additional table detailing the changes to the portfolio allocation.
Back-test performance (December 1994 – February 2011)* EUR USD GBP
The document contains various charts and graphs showing market performance data from 2006-2012 for indices like the S&P 500, FTSE, and Nikkei as well as other economic indicators like CDS spreads. It also includes tables displaying inflation rates and unemployment rates for European countries from 2007-2012. Overall, the document presents an analysis of major market and economic trends over recent years through the use of charts, graphs, and tables.
The document analyzes trends in the Korea social game market in the second quarter of 2011. It finds that while Cyworld AppStore saw growth in the number of games launched in the first quarter, the second quarter saw a drop in new users and revenue. Total revenue was still the highest so far at $8 million USD. Demographics remained steady, with females making up the majority of users at 56% and most users being between 16-29 years old. Simulation games like farming and aquarium titles remained very popular and a major driver of revenue.
Abstract: Until middle of 2007, yen carry trade was one of the lucrative options to the traders. Not only American dollar (USD) was high in terms of Japanese yen (JPY) during that time (June 18, 2007, 1 USD = 123.87 JPY) (see Fig 1), but significant differences of interest rates between US treasury and borrowing rate of Japan prompted traders to borrow Japanese currency with a relatively low interest rate and to use the funds to purchase a different currency (i.e. USD) yielding higher interest rate in order to make a significant amount of profit depending on the amount of leverage used. However, afterwards constant appreciation of JPY in terms of USD (December 4, 2009, 1 USD = 87.8 JYP) and reduction of US deposit interest rate has changed the scenario completely. As USD is depreciated in terms of other major currencies (Euro, Great Britain Pound etc.) in 2009 and deposit interest rate in some country (i.e Australia) is still higher than the borrowing rate of USA, traders now are encouraged in going for dollar carry trade instead of yen carry trade. This aspect is described at length in this report with the help of an excel based carry trade software named ‘samcarry’ (see appendix), which is developed by the author. Though major world currencies (Australian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, Great Britain pound, American dollar) are used to make a comparison to understand which currency is beneficial for carry trade, Indian currency, rupees (INR) is also considered for this purpose.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
The document shows a successful exit of 1000 soles (S/. 1000) from an investment at a 1000% rate of return over 15 days. A table tracks the daily withdrawal amounts from S/. 22 to S/. 2 over that period along with the corresponding dates and times.
price analysis of CAC40's stocks during the period of earning resultsCAC40insight
The document discusses analyzing stock price movements of CAC40 companies around earnings report dates from 2011-2012. It found it could predict the direction of stock price movements after earnings reports over 56% of the time. The success rate was 52% in 2011 and 61% in 2012. It encourages further research on predicting stock prices for other indexes in different countries and time periods, and analyzing social media and insider trading patterns.
The document discusses currency forward arbitrage opportunities that arise from interest rate differentials between currencies. Specifically, it discusses how monitoring euro/dollar forward rates versus Euribor rates and credit spreads can help identify arbitrage opportunities during periods of market dislocation when normal pricing methods become unreliable. Examples are provided to illustrate how adjusting forward rates based on changing deposit rates can remove arbitrage opportunities between the forward market and money markets.
- The presentation provides an investment case for Napier Ventures Inc. (NAP), a palladium mining company, highlighting NAP's commodity growth potential, strong balance sheet, and experienced management team.
- NAP's Lac des Iles mine expansion offers production and cost profile improvements while significant development and exploration upside is complemented by excess mill capacity and infrastructure.
- At a market capitalization of US$242 million and share price of US$1.39, the presentation argues NAP presents a compelling entry point for investment in the palladium mining sector.
- The document is an investor presentation for Napier Ventures Inc. discussing the investment case for palladium.
- Palladium prices are forecasted to return to historical highs around $1,000/oz due to constrained mine supply and growing demand from the automotive sector.
- Major palladium producers Russia and South Africa face challenges increasing supply. Demand is expected to grow with increasing vehicle production, particularly in emerging markets.
- Tightening emissions standards are increasing palladium loading in catalytic converters, supporting continued strong demand growth.
This document contains a table showing equipment expenses and weekly spending for a project between July 2011 and October 2011. It lists the dates, preventative maintenance costs, direct costs, and total weekly spending. The total payment made was $58,006.05, which includes $3,100 in preventative maintenance costs and $54,906.05 in direct equipment costs.
SEB sees 25 per cent chance of Riksbank cutSEBgroup
The document summarizes an internal survey by SEB of expectations for the upcoming Riksbank monetary policy decision and market reaction. Key points:
1) 82% of respondents expect the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged, while 18% expect a 25 basis point cut.
2) If rates stay unchanged, the survey expects Swedish bond yields to rise up to 10 basis points and the euro to fall 2-6 figures against the krona.
3) If rates are cut, yields could fall 7-12 basis points and the euro rise 4-7 figures against the krona.
4) On average, respondents expect the repo rate to be 1.27% by
This investor presentation provides an overview of North American Palladium as an investment opportunity in the palladium market. It highlights North American Palladium's production growth outlook through expansion of its Lac des Iles mine, a strong balance sheet to fund development programs, and an experienced management team. The presentation also notes positive supply and demand fundamentals for palladium and identifies Canada as an attractive jurisdiction for platinum group metal investments compared to South Africa.
- Napier Ventures is an investor presentation for a mining company that produces palladium.
- The company's Lac des Iles mine in Ontario, Canada is a world class palladium asset that has been in production for 20 years and is undergoing an expansion.
- In the first half of 2012, the mine produced over 81,000 ounces of palladium at a cash cost of $404 per ounce as it works towards its 2012 guidance of 150,000 to 160,000 ounces.
1) The document describes a long-short investment strategy that aims to build a market-neutral portfolio consisting of long positions in stocks with improving fundamentals and short positions in the Euro STOXX 50 Future.
2) The strategy has achieved positive returns during negative market months and preserved capital during positive months, reaching a nice balance.
3) Over time, the long-only portion of the strategy has exhibited lower beta characteristics than the market index, causing the long-short strategy to take on an unintentional negative beta posture by shorting more futures. However, this positioning helps preserve capital during downturns.
- The presentation provides an overview of North American Palladium's Lac des Iles mine, a primary palladium producer located in Ontario, Canada.
- In the first half of 2012, the mine produced over 81,000 ounces of palladium at a cash cost of $404 per ounce, in line with guidance for the year of 150,000 to 160,000 ounces at a cash cost of $375 to $400 per ounce.
- The mine is undergoing an expansion to increase production and reduce costs through higher mining rates and mill throughput while maintaining grade and recovery.
- Developed country central banks continue monetary easing policies like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies
- China saw a significant trade deficit in January and February due to seasonal factors
- Hungary may become the first country to face financial sanctions from the EU for its budget deficits and rising debt levels
The interim report summarizes SCA's financial results for the first quarter of 2011. Key points include:
- Sales increased 6% compared to Q1 2010, with growth in hygiene and packaging businesses, particularly in emerging markets.
- Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased 10%, though costs were significantly higher, including a SEK 1.3 billion increase in raw material costs.
- Profit before tax also increased 10% compared to Q1 2010.
Bonds included on the list are for inspirational purpose only and liquidity will vary. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Bonds included on the inspirational list are selected based on market liquidity. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Bonds included on the list are for inspirational purpose only and liquidity will vary. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Saxo Fundamental FX Portfolio for March 2011Trading Floor
This month the basis of the Saxo Fundamental FX Portfolio model, the proprietary macro strength indicators, have been revised to make them more comparable across economies. There is also a change to how funds are allocated in the portfolio model – from an absolute value to a percentage allocation, making the portfolio easier to use. Next month there will be an additional table detailing the changes to the portfolio allocation.
Back-test performance (December 1994 – February 2011)* EUR USD GBP
The document contains various charts and graphs showing market performance data from 2006-2012 for indices like the S&P 500, FTSE, and Nikkei as well as other economic indicators like CDS spreads. It also includes tables displaying inflation rates and unemployment rates for European countries from 2007-2012. Overall, the document presents an analysis of major market and economic trends over recent years through the use of charts, graphs, and tables.
The document analyzes trends in the Korea social game market in the second quarter of 2011. It finds that while Cyworld AppStore saw growth in the number of games launched in the first quarter, the second quarter saw a drop in new users and revenue. Total revenue was still the highest so far at $8 million USD. Demographics remained steady, with females making up the majority of users at 56% and most users being between 16-29 years old. Simulation games like farming and aquarium titles remained very popular and a major driver of revenue.
Abstract: Until middle of 2007, yen carry trade was one of the lucrative options to the traders. Not only American dollar (USD) was high in terms of Japanese yen (JPY) during that time (June 18, 2007, 1 USD = 123.87 JPY) (see Fig 1), but significant differences of interest rates between US treasury and borrowing rate of Japan prompted traders to borrow Japanese currency with a relatively low interest rate and to use the funds to purchase a different currency (i.e. USD) yielding higher interest rate in order to make a significant amount of profit depending on the amount of leverage used. However, afterwards constant appreciation of JPY in terms of USD (December 4, 2009, 1 USD = 87.8 JYP) and reduction of US deposit interest rate has changed the scenario completely. As USD is depreciated in terms of other major currencies (Euro, Great Britain Pound etc.) in 2009 and deposit interest rate in some country (i.e Australia) is still higher than the borrowing rate of USA, traders now are encouraged in going for dollar carry trade instead of yen carry trade. This aspect is described at length in this report with the help of an excel based carry trade software named ‘samcarry’ (see appendix), which is developed by the author. Though major world currencies (Australian dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, Great Britain pound, American dollar) are used to make a comparison to understand which currency is beneficial for carry trade, Indian currency, rupees (INR) is also considered for this purpose.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
The document shows a successful exit of 1000 soles (S/. 1000) from an investment at a 1000% rate of return over 15 days. A table tracks the daily withdrawal amounts from S/. 22 to S/. 2 over that period along with the corresponding dates and times.
price analysis of CAC40's stocks during the period of earning resultsCAC40insight
The document discusses analyzing stock price movements of CAC40 companies around earnings report dates from 2011-2012. It found it could predict the direction of stock price movements after earnings reports over 56% of the time. The success rate was 52% in 2011 and 61% in 2012. It encourages further research on predicting stock prices for other indexes in different countries and time periods, and analyzing social media and insider trading patterns.
The document discusses currency forward arbitrage opportunities that arise from interest rate differentials between currencies. Specifically, it discusses how monitoring euro/dollar forward rates versus Euribor rates and credit spreads can help identify arbitrage opportunities during periods of market dislocation when normal pricing methods become unreliable. Examples are provided to illustrate how adjusting forward rates based on changing deposit rates can remove arbitrage opportunities between the forward market and money markets.
- The presentation provides an investment case for Napier Ventures Inc. (NAP), a palladium mining company, highlighting NAP's commodity growth potential, strong balance sheet, and experienced management team.
- NAP's Lac des Iles mine expansion offers production and cost profile improvements while significant development and exploration upside is complemented by excess mill capacity and infrastructure.
- At a market capitalization of US$242 million and share price of US$1.39, the presentation argues NAP presents a compelling entry point for investment in the palladium mining sector.
- The document is an investor presentation for Napier Ventures Inc. discussing the investment case for palladium.
- Palladium prices are forecasted to return to historical highs around $1,000/oz due to constrained mine supply and growing demand from the automotive sector.
- Major palladium producers Russia and South Africa face challenges increasing supply. Demand is expected to grow with increasing vehicle production, particularly in emerging markets.
- Tightening emissions standards are increasing palladium loading in catalytic converters, supporting continued strong demand growth.
This document contains a table showing equipment expenses and weekly spending for a project between July 2011 and October 2011. It lists the dates, preventative maintenance costs, direct costs, and total weekly spending. The total payment made was $58,006.05, which includes $3,100 in preventative maintenance costs and $54,906.05 in direct equipment costs.
SEB sees 25 per cent chance of Riksbank cutSEBgroup
The document summarizes an internal survey by SEB of expectations for the upcoming Riksbank monetary policy decision and market reaction. Key points:
1) 82% of respondents expect the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged, while 18% expect a 25 basis point cut.
2) If rates stay unchanged, the survey expects Swedish bond yields to rise up to 10 basis points and the euro to fall 2-6 figures against the krona.
3) If rates are cut, yields could fall 7-12 basis points and the euro rise 4-7 figures against the krona.
4) On average, respondents expect the repo rate to be 1.27% by
This investor presentation provides an overview of North American Palladium as an investment opportunity in the palladium market. It highlights North American Palladium's production growth outlook through expansion of its Lac des Iles mine, a strong balance sheet to fund development programs, and an experienced management team. The presentation also notes positive supply and demand fundamentals for palladium and identifies Canada as an attractive jurisdiction for platinum group metal investments compared to South Africa.
- Napier Ventures is an investor presentation for a mining company that produces palladium.
- The company's Lac des Iles mine in Ontario, Canada is a world class palladium asset that has been in production for 20 years and is undergoing an expansion.
- In the first half of 2012, the mine produced over 81,000 ounces of palladium at a cash cost of $404 per ounce as it works towards its 2012 guidance of 150,000 to 160,000 ounces.
1) The document describes a long-short investment strategy that aims to build a market-neutral portfolio consisting of long positions in stocks with improving fundamentals and short positions in the Euro STOXX 50 Future.
2) The strategy has achieved positive returns during negative market months and preserved capital during positive months, reaching a nice balance.
3) Over time, the long-only portion of the strategy has exhibited lower beta characteristics than the market index, causing the long-short strategy to take on an unintentional negative beta posture by shorting more futures. However, this positioning helps preserve capital during downturns.
- The presentation provides an overview of North American Palladium's Lac des Iles mine, a primary palladium producer located in Ontario, Canada.
- In the first half of 2012, the mine produced over 81,000 ounces of palladium at a cash cost of $404 per ounce, in line with guidance for the year of 150,000 to 160,000 ounces at a cash cost of $375 to $400 per ounce.
- The mine is undergoing an expansion to increase production and reduce costs through higher mining rates and mill throughput while maintaining grade and recovery.
- Developed country central banks continue monetary easing policies like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies
- China saw a significant trade deficit in January and February due to seasonal factors
- Hungary may become the first country to face financial sanctions from the EU for its budget deficits and rising debt levels
The interim report summarizes SCA's financial results for the first quarter of 2011. Key points include:
- Sales increased 6% compared to Q1 2010, with growth in hygiene and packaging businesses, particularly in emerging markets.
- Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) increased 10%, though costs were significantly higher, including a SEK 1.3 billion increase in raw material costs.
- Profit before tax also increased 10% compared to Q1 2010.
Bonds included on the list are for inspirational purpose only and liquidity will vary. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Bonds included on the inspirational list are selected based on market liquidity. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Bonds included on the list are for inspirational purpose only and liquidity will vary. None of the suggested bonds constitute any form of trade recommendation to sell or buy.
Pricing source: Indicative prices from Bloomberg
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Global Value Equity Portfolio (March 2011)Trading Floor
This month we have adjusted our Global Value Equity Portfolio to include the reinvestment of gross dividends and introduced dynamic weights for the constituents. This reduces transaction costs, enhances excess return and makes the portfolio easier to replicate for investors.
Fibonacci analysis is the study of identifying potential support and resistance levels in the future based on past price trends and reversals. Fibonacci analysis is based on the mathematical discoveries of Leonardo Pisano—also known as Fibonacci. He is credited with discovering a sequence of numbers that now bears his name: the Fibonacci sequence.
Forex traders have to not only compete with other traders in the forex market but also with themselves. Oftentimes as a Forex trader, you will be your own worst enemy. We, as humans, are naturally emotional. Our egos want to be validated—we want to prove to ourselves that we know what we are doing and we are capable of taking care of ourselves. We also have a natural instinct to survive.
This document summarizes various technical analysis price patterns that provide insight into trader sentiment and expected currency pair movements. It describes continuation patterns like pennants, flags, wedges and triangles that signal a trend may continue, and reversal patterns like double tops/bottoms, triple tops/bottoms, and head-and-shoulders patterns that indicate a trend reversal. Each pattern is defined by characteristics like resistance and support levels, flag poles, breakout points and expected price targets. Recognizing these patterns can help traders identify entry points and projection targets.
FOREX - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TRENDS, SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE (1.4)Trading Floor
Charts, charts, charts. When most people think about trading Forex, they think about watching price movements flash by them on the charts and making money as they jump in and out of profitable trades. This is where traders show whether or not they have what it takes to be successful in Forex market.
FOREX - FUNDAMENTALS MAKE CURRENCY PAIRS MOVE (1.3)Trading Floor
The key to making money in the Forex is understanding what makes currency pairs move. Ultimately, it is investors who make currency pairs move as they buy and sell different currencies, but these investors buy and sell for a reason. Either they see something happening fundamentally in the global economy that makes them believe a currency is going to get stronger or they see something happening fundamentally that makes them believe a currency is going to get weaker. In other words, they watch the fundamentals and make their decisions according to what they see
Everything is relative in the forex market. The euro, by itself, is neither strong nor weak. The same holds true for the U.S. dollar. By itself, it is neither strong nor weak. Only when you compare two currencies together can you determine how strong or weak each currency is in relation to the other currency.
Earnings Releases 21.February - 27. February 2011Trading Floor
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Commodities on the radar - Weekly Commodity Update 1.2.11Trading Floor
- Speculative futures positions across sectors increased by 5% or 94,000 lots last week as hedge funds and money managers added to long positions.
- Investors added to short dollar positions, with the accumulated dollar short now at $30 billion, close to last year's peak of -$35.16 billion.
- Long positions in WTI crude oil rose by 21k contracts and positions in grains, which make up 56% of total speculative positions, rose significantly.
Earnings releases 7. February - 11.February 2011Trading Floor
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Earnings releases 17. January - 23. January 2011Trading Floor
Stock market analysis: Apple, eBay INC,Google,Morgan Stanley,Western Digial Corp. and more. In the several sectors like finance, technology & basic materials. #stocktrading #stocks. By Saxo Bank's Tradingfloor.com team.
Saxo Asset Allocation for February 2011Trading Floor
Our Asset Allocation Model maintains its “Moderately Bullish” stance even though the
Global Business Cycle Momentum Indicator decelerated in January. The model suggests
big positions in equities and bonds
FX month(s) in review: Wild transition to the New Year.
Themes for 2011
Carry Trade Model – coming unhinged
Central Bank Watch: Expectations shifting higher
Saxo Bank G-10 FX Outlook
Global Value Equity Portfolio - February 2011Trading Floor
The Global Value Equity portfolio performed strongly in January with most contribution coming from our stock selection, driven by CNP Assurances and Almirall, with almost no help from our sector allocation
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
How Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank’s Co-Branded RuPay Credit Card Cater...beulahfernandes8
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Understanding Ponzi Schemes
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2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
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Forex Portfolio for February 2011
1. February 1, 2011
Forex Portfolio for February 2011
David Karsbøl The model returned 0.47%* in January; primarily through long exposure to EURUSD
Chief Economist and EURAUD and short exposure to EURSEK.
dka@saxobank.com
+45 3977 4330
The model remains bearish on USD and EUR, but has also turned bearish on GBP.
The model has returned 0.47% YTD*.
The annualised return since inception is 7.62%*.
The model is rebalanced monthly on the first Danish business day 12 CET.
Note to clients: The Forex
Portfolio Allocation model
will be relaunched with Allocation in February
changes to methodology
on 1 March 2011. The Forex Portfolio remains firmly negative towards the USD and to a lesser extent
towards the EUR though both net short positions have been reduced in January. The net
short exposure to GBP is nearly negligible now.
The biggest long positions in EUR are against the US dollar, the Norwegian krone, and
the Aussie. The EURUSD long position has, however, been toned down further in January.
The Swedish krona is still the most preferred currency against the EUR, but the long
exposure has been reduced even further in January. The CHF is a close second now,
having seen its exposure increase more than 50% and the EURCHF thus sees the biggest
change to its position.
EUR-denominated account USD-denominated account GBP-denominated account
EUR 1 million USD 1 million GBP 1 million
EURAUD 110,230 AUDUSD -109,712 GBPAUD 110,230
EURGBP 67,600 GBPUSD -41,959 GBPUSD 261,688
EURUSD 261,688 USDCAD 70,458 GBPCAD 70,458
EURCAD 70,458 USDCHF -454,580 GBPCHF -454,580
EURCHF -454,580 USDJPY -34,443 GBPJPY -34,443
EURJPY -34,443 USDNOK 193,004 GBPNOK 193,004
EURNOK 193,004 USDSEK -412,350 GBPSEK -412,350
EURSEK -412,350 EURUSD -129,561 EURGBP -208,635
EURNZD 20,619 NZDUSD -26,568 NZDGBP -42,802
The suggested allocations above are based on an account size of EUR/USD/GBP
1,000,000. A spreadsheet for calculating allocations for custom-sized accounts can be
found under Forex Portfolio Model Allocation at www.tradingfloor.com/fx-equity-research.
2. February 01, 2011
The Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model
Forex Portfolio: The model was back-tested* from October 1991 to September 2008 during which period
it yielded 106.9% or 0.36% per month before costs in the EUR-denominated account*.
Realized Returns From October 2008 to September 2009 the model was further back-tested on „out-of-
Month Return (%)
sample‟ data to further validate its performance. The model was launched in October 1,
2009.
2009 October 0.32
2009 November 0.68 Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model: Realised Results* (Oct. 2009 - )
Accumulated capital
2009 December -0.31 from investing EUR 1
ultimo September 2009
2010 January -0.41 1.4
2010 February 2.10 1.3
2010 March 0.17 1.2
2010 April 0.59 1.1
2010 May 0.96 1.0
2010 June 3.60 0.9
2010 July -1.62 0.8
03/10
12/10
09/09
12/09
06/10
09/10
2010 August 3.38
2010 September -0.80
Single Leverage (7.62% p.a.) Double Leverage (15.51% p.a.) Triple Leverage (23.66% p.a.)
2010 October 0.49
2010 November -1.06 Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model: Backtesting Results* (Oct. 1991 - Sep. 2008)
2010 December 1.43 Accumulated capital
from investing EUR 1
2011 January 0.47 15.0
YTD 0.47
12.5
Since inception 10.29
10.0
Since inception
7.62
(annualized) 7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
1991
1996
1997
1998
2003
2004
2005
1992
1993
1994
1995
1999
2000
2001
2002
2006
2007
2008
2009
Single Leverage (4.67%) p.a. Double Leverage (9.21%) p.a. Triple Leverage (13.59%) p.a.
Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model - Monthly returns in backtesting* (%, Oct. 1991 - Sep.
Obs. 2008)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
10.0
-10.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
-9.5
-9.0
-8.5
-8.0
-7.5
-7.0
-6.5
-6.0
-5.5
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
*Past performance disclaimer
This publication refers to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Indications of past performance
displayed on this publication will not necessarily be repeated in the future. No representation is being made that any investment will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past or that significant losses will be avoided.
Statements contained on this publication that are not historical facts and which may be simulated past performance or future performance
data are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of the Saxo Bank Group. Such statements involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Additionally, this publication may
contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or
contemplated in such forward-looking statements.
2
3. February 01, 2011
The model input
The model‟s inputs are proprietary individual country indicators, which measure the
underlying economic strength (contraction or expansion) of the following 10 currencies:
NZD, AUD, CAD, JPY, EUR, GBP, USD, CHF, SEK, and NOK. The country indicators, which
are designed to reflect the macroeconomic strength of each economy, are based on 22
individual economic time series for each country.
The allocation signals are generated by changes in spreads between the fundamental
country indicators. More capital is allocated to currencies with relatively strong economic
activity (and positive rate outlook), funded by short positions on currencies with weak
economic activity (weak rate outlook). For example, if the Eurozone fundamental country
index suddenly drops (increases) relative to the US fundamental index, the model, all
else being equal, would reduce (increase) exposure to EURUSD. Additionally, positions
are scaled up or down according to the volatility of the currency crosses in question so
the expected risk-adjusted return for positions in EURCHF is the same as for positions in
the normally more volatile EURCAD.
Allocations are presented as net exposures against EUR, USD, or GBP to reduce both the
number of possible combinations and most illiquid crosses.
Returns are based on Bloomberg monthly carry-adjusted currency data. The model
therefore does not include costs related to minimum trading size, slippage, rollover,
spreads, and taxes.
Allocation update
The model will be published on www.tradingfloor.com by Saxo Bank on the first banking
day of the calendar month. While Saxo Bank publishes the model‟s suggested allocation,
the bank is not responsible for the monthly reweighting of the portfolio.
For a EUR-denominated account, the sum of all EUR positions following the model will
deviate from the amount allocated to follow the model. For example, the holder of a EUR
1 million account might choose to allocate EUR 1 million to follow the model, but the sum
of EUR exposure will not equal EUR 1 million. The reason is that one needs to look at the
net exposures. If the model is long 100,000 EURUSD and short 100,000 EURJPY, the net
exposure in EUR on these two positions is actually zero. The sum of total position sizes in
EUR might therefore deviate from EUR 1 million, since the model is only looking at net
exposures of the currencies in question. The reason is that the model follows 10
currencies, but the net exposures are established via only nine crosses. The sum of all
these exposures is then either net long or short, depending on the model‟s prediction on
EUR itself.
Attractive features
The model is always well diversified and is always in the market. It is therefore not
exposed to “timing issues”. It does not use stops, since the overall volatility of returns
tends to be low (especially on single leverage). One particularly interesting feature is
that returns tend to be almost completely uncorrelated to returns in stock markets
(correlation = 0.10) and other risky asset classes (correlation to the CRB Index is 0.11).
Therefore, if the back-testing since 1991 is indicative of future returns*, it would make a
lot of sense to use part of one‟s portfolio to allocate to the FX Model and thereby
decreasing overall portfolio volatility without lowering returns too much (depends on the
leverage used) or at all.
*Past performance disclaimer
This publication refers to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Indications of past performance
displayed on this publication will not necessarily be repeated in the future. No representation is being made that any investment will or is
likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past or that significant losses will be avoided.
Statements contained on this publication that are not historical facts and which may be simulated past performance or future performance
data are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of the Saxo Bank Group. Such statements involve known
and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon. Additionally, this publication may
contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or actual performance may differ materially from those reflected or
contemplated in such forward-looking statements.
3
4. February 01, 2011
NON-INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH
This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of
investment research. Further it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Saxo Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be
interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein.
None of the information contained herein constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or
financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This material is produced for
marketing and/or informational purposes only and Saxo Bank A/S and its owners, subsidiaries and affiliates whether acting directly
or through branch offices (“Saxo Bank”) make no representation or warranty, and assume no liability, for the accuracy or
completeness of the information provided herein. In providing this material Saxo Bank has not taken into account any particular
recipient‟s investment objectives, special investment goals, financial situation, and specific needs and demands and nothing herein
is intended as a recommendation for any recipient to invest or divest in a particular manner and Saxo Bank assumes no liability for
any recipient sustaining a loss from trading in accordance with a perceived recommendation. All investments entail a risk and may
result in both profits and losses. In particular investments in leveraged products, such as but not limited to foreign exchange,
derivates and commodities can be very speculative and profits and losses may fluctuate both violently and rapidly. Speculative
trading is not suitable for all investors and all recipients should carefully consider their financial situation and consult financial
advisor(s) in order to understand the risks involved and ensure the suitability of their situation prior to making any investment,
divestment or entering into any transaction. Any mentioning herein, if any, of any risk may not be, and should not be considered
to be, neither a comprehensive disclosure or risks nor a comprehensive description such risks. Any expression of opinion may be
personal to the author and may not reflect the opinion of Saxo Bank and all expressions of opinion are subject to change without
notice (neither prior nor subsequent).
Trade Currency and Price Currency
When an investor trades in the Forex market, they always trade a combination of two currencies (a cross or currency pair) in
which one currency is bought (long) and the other is sold (short). This means the investor is speculating on the prospect of one of
the currencies appreciating in value in relation to the other.
Forex Margin Trading
Margin trading allows investors to buy and sell assets that have a greater value than the capital in their account. Forex trading is
typically executed on margin accounts, and the industry practice is to trade on relatively small margin amounts since currency
exchange rate fluctuations tend to be less than one or two percent on any given day.
Margin trading does involve a certain amount of risk. Since a position is being held that exceeds the actual value of the account, a
trader could incur substantial losses if the market moves against his position. Thus, margin trading requires close monitoring of
margin utilization, i.e. the amount of collateral being used to hold margined positions.
If margin utilization exceeds collateral available for margin trading, positions must be closed, reduced, or additional funds must be
posted to cover the position.
This publication refers to past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Indications of past
performance displayed on this publication will not necessarily be repeated in the future. No representation is being made that any
investment will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those achieved in the past, or that significant losses will be
avoided.
Statements contained on this publication that are not historical facts and which may be simulated past performance or future
performance data are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions and beliefs of the Saxo Bank Group. Such
statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be placed thereon.
Additionally, this publication may contain 'forward-looking statements'. Actual events or results or actual performance may differ
materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.
This material is confidential and should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by
recipients to any other person.
Any information or opinions in this material are not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any jurisdiction or country
where such distribution or use would be unlawful. The information in this document is not directed at or intended for “US Persons”
within the meaning of the United States Securities Act of 1993, as amended and the United States Securities Exchange Act of
1934, as amended.
The Saxo Bank Group is under the supervision of the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (In Danish: "Finanstilsynet") and is
subject to the Danish Executive Order on Good Business Practice for Financial Undertakings.
Saxo Bank A/S
Philip Heymans Allé 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00
Reg. No. 1149
CVR. No. 15731249
This disclaimer is subject to Saxo Bank's Full Disclaimer available at www.saxobank.com/disclaimer.
4