Fist 2008
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The document summarizes findings from a 2008 GAO report on major US weapon programs. It finds that outcomes have not improved over 6 years and programs routinely cost more, take longer, and deliver less than promised. It also discusses how long development cycles are a major problem, with the average program taking over 8 years compared to 5 years planned by the DoD. Shorter development times are seen as key to successful programs.
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Fist 2008
- 16. $7B, 20 years, 0 Aircraft $3B, 8 years, 0 Aircraft $11B, 7 years, 0 artillery 20% overrun, 20 years
- 19. An unreasonably long acquisition cycle… is a central problem from which most other acquisition problems stem. - Packard Commission, 1986
- 24. Average Cycle Times Packard Commission Air Force Navy 0 10 12 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Program Start to IOC (Years) Army Source: DSB Briefing, Dan Czelusniak, 12 June 1998 8 6 4 2 1999 Automobile Industry
- 25. PEM and SPO Surveys N=208 Superior Performance Low Acquisition Cost Low Operation Costs Shortened Schedule Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Fourth Third Second First 100 80 60 40 20 0 Axis: Number of Programs Responding
- 37. Goodness Complexity Complexity Slope Complication Slope Simplification Slope TIME
- 38. Goodness Complexity Complexity Slope
- 39. Goodness Complexity Complication Slope
- 40. Goodness Complexity Simplification Slope
- 41. Goodness Complexity Simplistic Complexity Slope Complex Complication Slope Complicated Simplification Slope Simple TIME
- 42. Download the free PDF at Lulu.com
- 44. Goodness Complexity Simplification Slope
- 45. T I N Y Schedule Process Team Budget
- 47. “ If you look at the history of innovation, you’ll see one proven recipe for breakthroughs…”
- 49. fail n -> succeed m fail n succeed m
- 57. “ Courageous trust in the face of possible exploitation is the most ethically responsible and organizationally successful approach over the long term.”
Editor's Notes
- Good afternoon – I’m Maj Dan Ward and I’m here to tell you some stories. As many of you know, the Wright Brothers made their first flight in 1903 – but what I think is particularly interesting is the fact they started work in 1899… just four years earlier? By 1905, two years after the first flight, they had a practical, dependable flying machine (relatively speaking). And they did it without computer models, without successful historical precedents. This is what a pair of talented bicycle repairmen can do in 4 years.