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 Step 1: Understand the expected uses of the
model and the required outputs.
 Step 2: Collect historical data for the
company, its industry, and its major
competitors.
 Step 3: Understand the company’s plan and
develop a comprehensive set of modeling
assumptions.
 Step 4: Build the model and debug it.
 Step 5: Improve the model based on
feedback.
 Forecasting Line Items
 The “Plug”
 Depreciation
 Retained Earnings
 Interest Expense
 Sign Convention and Formatting of Financial Statements
 THE LEVEL OF DETAILS IN A MODEL
 THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
 Modeling the Statement of Cash Flows
 FREE CASH FLOW
 Uses of the Free Cash Flow
 Free Cash Flow and Business Valuation
Summation
Numbers (+)
Subtraction
Numbers:
Revenue is (-)
Expense is (+)
Summation
Numbers:
Debits * (-)
Credit (=)
Numbers:
(-) outflow
(+) inflow
 Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity

 ΔAssets = ΔLiabilities + ΔShareholders’ Equity

 ΔCash = ΔLiabilities + ΔShareholders’ Equity −
ΔNon-Cash Assets
 These statements give you a lot of insight
into the company and point out issues you
need to investigate
 EPS (Earning Per Share) =
Net Income
Number of Shares
 Dividend per Share =
Dividends
Number of Shares
 P/E Ratio =
Stock Price
EPS
(How much Dollars makes one Dollar Profit)
 Dividend Payout Ratio =
Dividends
Net Income
 Return on Equity (ROE) =
Net Income
Equity Average
(How much Equity makes Money)
 Return on Sales (ROS) =
EBIT
Sales
(How much Sales process makes Money)
EBIT ( Earning Before Interest and Taxes)
 EPS Growth Rate =
Current EPS
Previous EPS
-1
 Dividend Growth Rate =
Current Dividend per share
Previous Dividend per share
-1
 Sales Growth Rate =
Current Sales
Previous Sales
-1
 EBIT Growth Rate =
Current EBIT
Previous EBIT
-1
 Net Income Growth Rate =
Current Net Income
Previous Net Income
-1
 Current Ratio =
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
(cash to pay debt)
 Quick Ratio =
(Cash +Account Receivable)
Current Liabilities
(Available Cash to cover Liabilities)
 Inventory Turnover Ratio =
Cost of Sales
Inventories
(How many times Inventory converted to Sales)
 Receivable Turnover Ratio =
Sales
Accounts Receivable
(How many times Accounts Receivable converted
to cash)
 Total Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt)
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity)
(How much the Debt in the capital)
 Long−Term Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Long Term Debt)
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity)
(How much the Long Term Debt in the capital)
 Total Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt)
Equity
(How much the Debt to Equity)
Financial modeling   sameh aljabli   lecture 3
Financial modeling   sameh aljabli   lecture 3
Financial modeling   sameh aljabli   lecture 3
Financial modeling   sameh aljabli   lecture 3

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Financial modeling sameh aljabli lecture 3

  • 2.  Step 1: Understand the expected uses of the model and the required outputs.  Step 2: Collect historical data for the company, its industry, and its major competitors.  Step 3: Understand the company’s plan and develop a comprehensive set of modeling assumptions.  Step 4: Build the model and debug it.  Step 5: Improve the model based on feedback.
  • 3.  Forecasting Line Items  The “Plug”  Depreciation  Retained Earnings  Interest Expense  Sign Convention and Formatting of Financial Statements  THE LEVEL OF DETAILS IN A MODEL  THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS  Modeling the Statement of Cash Flows  FREE CASH FLOW  Uses of the Free Cash Flow  Free Cash Flow and Business Valuation
  • 4. Summation Numbers (+) Subtraction Numbers: Revenue is (-) Expense is (+) Summation Numbers: Debits * (-) Credit (=) Numbers: (-) outflow (+) inflow
  • 5.  Assets = Liabilities + Shareholders’ Equity   ΔAssets = ΔLiabilities + ΔShareholders’ Equity   ΔCash = ΔLiabilities + ΔShareholders’ Equity − ΔNon-Cash Assets
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.  These statements give you a lot of insight into the company and point out issues you need to investigate
  • 13.
  • 14.  EPS (Earning Per Share) = Net Income Number of Shares  Dividend per Share = Dividends Number of Shares  P/E Ratio = Stock Price EPS (How much Dollars makes one Dollar Profit)  Dividend Payout Ratio = Dividends Net Income
  • 15.
  • 16.  Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income Equity Average (How much Equity makes Money)  Return on Sales (ROS) = EBIT Sales (How much Sales process makes Money) EBIT ( Earning Before Interest and Taxes)
  • 17.
  • 18.  EPS Growth Rate = Current EPS Previous EPS -1  Dividend Growth Rate = Current Dividend per share Previous Dividend per share -1  Sales Growth Rate = Current Sales Previous Sales -1  EBIT Growth Rate = Current EBIT Previous EBIT -1  Net Income Growth Rate = Current Net Income Previous Net Income -1
  • 19.
  • 20.  Current Ratio = Current Assets Current Liabilities (cash to pay debt)  Quick Ratio = (Cash +Account Receivable) Current Liabilities (Available Cash to cover Liabilities)
  • 21.
  • 22.  Inventory Turnover Ratio = Cost of Sales Inventories (How many times Inventory converted to Sales)  Receivable Turnover Ratio = Sales Accounts Receivable (How many times Accounts Receivable converted to cash)
  • 23.
  • 24.  Total Debt to Total Capitalization = (Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt) (Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity) (How much the Debt in the capital)  Long−Term Debt to Total Capitalization = (Long Term Debt) (Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity) (How much the Long Term Debt in the capital)  Total Debt to Total Capitalization = (Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt) Equity (How much the Debt to Equity)