2. Step 1: Understand the expected uses of the
model and the required outputs.
Step 2: Collect historical data for the
company, its industry, and its major
competitors.
Step 3: Understand the company’s plan and
develop a comprehensive set of modeling
assumptions.
Step 4: Build the model and debug it.
Step 5: Improve the model based on
feedback.
3. Forecasting Line Items
The “Plug”
Depreciation
Retained Earnings
Interest Expense
Sign Convention and Formatting of Financial Statements
THE LEVEL OF DETAILS IN A MODEL
THE STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
Modeling the Statement of Cash Flows
FREE CASH FLOW
Uses of the Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow and Business Valuation
12. These statements give you a lot of insight
into the company and point out issues you
need to investigate
13.
14. EPS (Earning Per Share) =
Net Income
Number of Shares
Dividend per Share =
Dividends
Number of Shares
P/E Ratio =
Stock Price
EPS
(How much Dollars makes one Dollar Profit)
Dividend Payout Ratio =
Dividends
Net Income
15.
16. Return on Equity (ROE) =
Net Income
Equity Average
(How much Equity makes Money)
Return on Sales (ROS) =
EBIT
Sales
(How much Sales process makes Money)
EBIT ( Earning Before Interest and Taxes)
17.
18. EPS Growth Rate =
Current EPS
Previous EPS
-1
Dividend Growth Rate =
Current Dividend per share
Previous Dividend per share
-1
Sales Growth Rate =
Current Sales
Previous Sales
-1
EBIT Growth Rate =
Current EBIT
Previous EBIT
-1
Net Income Growth Rate =
Current Net Income
Previous Net Income
-1
19.
20. Current Ratio =
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
(cash to pay debt)
Quick Ratio =
(Cash +Account Receivable)
Current Liabilities
(Available Cash to cover Liabilities)
21.
22. Inventory Turnover Ratio =
Cost of Sales
Inventories
(How many times Inventory converted to Sales)
Receivable Turnover Ratio =
Sales
Accounts Receivable
(How many times Accounts Receivable converted
to cash)
23.
24. Total Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt)
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity)
(How much the Debt in the capital)
Long−Term Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Long Term Debt)
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt+ Equity)
(How much the Long Term Debt in the capital)
Total Debt to Total Capitalization =
(Short Term Debt +Long Term Debt)
Equity
(How much the Debt to Equity)