This document is a dissertation submitted by Sukant Arora to Dr. Brajesh Kumar at Jindal Global Business School that examines the relationship between the Indian stock market, gold prices, and the USD-INR exchange rate from 2005 to 2011. It provides background on previous studies that show mixed results on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. The dissertation will analyze daily closing prices using statistical analysis to determine the correlation between stock prices, gold, and the exchange rate both before and after the 2008 financial crisis. The results will help create a hedging strategy to build an efficient investment portfolio.
IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science is an International Journal edited by International Organization of Scientific Research (IOSR).The Journal provides a common forum where all aspects of humanities and social sciences are presented. IOSR-JHSS publishes original papers, review papers, conceptual framework, analytical and simulation models, case studies, empirical research, technical notes etc.
11.exchange rate volatility and stock market behaviour the nigerian experienceAlexander Decker
The study examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2009 using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) Exchange rates and stock market performance are cointegrated, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) The long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance is negative - exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact stock market performance.
3) Granger causality tests show exchange rates cause stock market performance in Nigeria, implying exchange rate volatility explains variations in the stock market.
This document summarizes a study that investigated the short-run and long-run dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Malawi from 1999 to 2010. The study used data on the Malawi stock exchange index, exchange rates, interest rates, and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange index. Statistical analyses found no evidence of cointegration, or a long-run relationship, between the variables. Granger causality tests also found that stock prices and exchange rates did not cause each other during the period analyzed. Additionally, the study found that internal and external macroeconomic shocks did not have an immediate influence on the stock or foreign exchange markets in Malawi.
The causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in kenyaAlexander Decker
This study examines the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Kenya from 1993 to 1999. The empirical results show that exchange rates and stock prices are nonstationary and integrated of order one. Tests also show that the two variables are cointegrated. Error-correction models were used instead of Granger causality tests due to the cointegration. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates Granger-cause stock prices in Kenya, meaning that changes in exchange rates lead to changes in stock prices.
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether stock prices and exchange rates are related to each
other or not. Both the short term and the long term association between these variables are discovered. The study applies
monthly and quarterly data on two gulf countries, including Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirate (UAE)
for the period January 2008 to December 2009. The results of this study in the short term found that the exchange rate
influence positively on the stock market price index for United Arab Emirate and there is no association between them for
Kingdom Saudi Arabia. Moreover the study in the long term found that the exchange rate influence negatively on stock
market price index for the United Arab Emirate. While no association between these variables in Kingdom Saudi Arabia.
This paper aims to investigate the stability of money demand function for Saudi Arabian economy over the period of
2007:Q1-2018:Q4 by applying various structural break tests. The obtained results from the utilized tests reveal the
stability of money demand function. The estimated money demand function also shows the impact of income on
money demand is consistent with theory expectations in addition to the positive impact of exchange rate and interest
rate on the demand for money. Moreover, the estimated error correction model indicates that money demand needs
about 5 quarters to adjust to its equilibrium path in case it deviates from the steady state condition
11.a causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical e...Alexander Decker
This document examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. It finds a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. The document reviews several previous studies on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in various countries and time periods.
IOSR Journal of Humanities and Social Science is an International Journal edited by International Organization of Scientific Research (IOSR).The Journal provides a common forum where all aspects of humanities and social sciences are presented. IOSR-JHSS publishes original papers, review papers, conceptual framework, analytical and simulation models, case studies, empirical research, technical notes etc.
11.exchange rate volatility and stock market behaviour the nigerian experienceAlexander Decker
The study examines the relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance in Nigeria from 1985 to 2009 using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) Exchange rates and stock market performance are cointegrated, indicating a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) The long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market performance is negative - exchange rate fluctuations negatively impact stock market performance.
3) Granger causality tests show exchange rates cause stock market performance in Nigeria, implying exchange rate volatility explains variations in the stock market.
This document summarizes a study that investigated the short-run and long-run dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Malawi from 1999 to 2010. The study used data on the Malawi stock exchange index, exchange rates, interest rates, and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange index. Statistical analyses found no evidence of cointegration, or a long-run relationship, between the variables. Granger causality tests also found that stock prices and exchange rates did not cause each other during the period analyzed. Additionally, the study found that internal and external macroeconomic shocks did not have an immediate influence on the stock or foreign exchange markets in Malawi.
The causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in kenyaAlexander Decker
This study examines the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in Kenya from 1993 to 1999. The empirical results show that exchange rates and stock prices are nonstationary and integrated of order one. Tests also show that the two variables are cointegrated. Error-correction models were used instead of Granger causality tests due to the cointegration. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates Granger-cause stock prices in Kenya, meaning that changes in exchange rates lead to changes in stock prices.
Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether stock prices and exchange rates are related to each
other or not. Both the short term and the long term association between these variables are discovered. The study applies
monthly and quarterly data on two gulf countries, including Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) and United Arab Emirate (UAE)
for the period January 2008 to December 2009. The results of this study in the short term found that the exchange rate
influence positively on the stock market price index for United Arab Emirate and there is no association between them for
Kingdom Saudi Arabia. Moreover the study in the long term found that the exchange rate influence negatively on stock
market price index for the United Arab Emirate. While no association between these variables in Kingdom Saudi Arabia.
This paper aims to investigate the stability of money demand function for Saudi Arabian economy over the period of
2007:Q1-2018:Q4 by applying various structural break tests. The obtained results from the utilized tests reveal the
stability of money demand function. The estimated money demand function also shows the impact of income on
money demand is consistent with theory expectations in addition to the positive impact of exchange rate and interest
rate on the demand for money. Moreover, the estimated error correction model indicates that money demand needs
about 5 quarters to adjust to its equilibrium path in case it deviates from the steady state condition
11.a causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical e...Alexander Decker
This document examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. It finds a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. The document reviews several previous studies on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in various countries and time periods.
A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical evid...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. The results indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. In addition, the paper reviews several other studies that have examined the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in other countries, finding mixed results.
This document summarizes a study that examined the demand for money in Nigeria over 26 years using measures of narrow and broad money, income, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market data. The study found that Nigeria's money demand function was stable over the period examined and that income was the most significant determinant of money demand. It also found that incorporating stock market variables improved the performance of the money demand function, as stock markets have become more important for household wealth. The study recommends policies to improve stock market activities and the use of monetary targeting to control inflation.
The paper aims to see the effect of Nominal, Real (External) and Effective Exchange rates (EER) of the U.S dollar on its Terms of Trade with two of its APEC trading partners Australia and New Zealand for the period 1991 to 2010. For analysis, the whole values, percentage changes and relationships between Nominal, Real, EER and Terms of Trade of U.S with the two countries has been taken into consideration. In order to fully access the relationship between the EER and TOT of the U.S with the two trading partners, the Classical Regression analysis is used. It was found that the Real Exchange rate was overvalued as compared to the Nominal Exchange Rate. It was also found that when compared to Nominal exchange rate, Real exchange rate is more effective in explaining the TOT. The Real AUD/USD had both short run and long run impacts on the TOT of U.S.A with Australia but the Real NZD/USD had no impact on the TOT of U.S.A with New Zealand. The EER has been found to be the most effective in determining the TOT balance. The regression analysis showed a regression function of “Terms of Trade= -122.026 + 2.1 Effective Exchange Rate”. The relationship is found by coefficient correlation (r) and there is found to be a positive and strong relationship between the two variables. The 𝑟2 value shows that although some values of the TOT are caused by the EER, there are also other variables that might be influencing the EER as well. The t-values show that the values of β0 and β1 are significant. Also the F-test confirms the overall significance of the model and terms the results as authentic.
This study examines factors that influence real exchange rates in Asian economies including Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong. The methods show that real exchange rates and terms of trade can be jointly determined. Productivity differential, terms of trade, real oil prices, and reserve differentials are found to impact real exchange rates in these economies in the long run, though the impacts vary between economies. The factors influencing real exchange rate determination also differ depending on the economy's exchange rate regime and degree of openness to trade.
The relationship between oil price, exchange rate and islamic stock market in...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research journal article that examines the relationship between oil prices, exchange rates, and the Islamic stock market in Malaysia. It provides background on previous research examining the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic factors. The study aims to analyze the dynamic effects of changes in oil prices and exchange rates on Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index using vector autoregression models. Preliminary findings from monthly data from 2007 to 2011 show the Islamic stock prices are cointegrated with oil prices and exchange rates, with stock prices positively related to oil prices and inversely related to exchange rates.
This document summarizes a study that examines the nonlinear relationship between real exchange rates and bilateral trade balance between South Korea and the United States from 1985 to 2013. The study finds:
1) There is a cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and bilateral trade balance in both linear and nonlinear models, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) South Korea-U.S. bilateral trade balance exhibited no J-curve effect when the South Korean won depreciated against the U.S. dollar.
3) A performance evaluation found the nonlinear model was better than the linear model at predicting trade balance, indicating depreciation has a limited effect and sharp currency depreciation can hurt a country's
öRnek dönem-projesi-bitirme-tezi-ekonometri-mehmet-güçlü-tez-ödevBurhanettin NOĞAY
This study empirically analyzes Turkey's money demand function from 1987 to 2010 using annual data for M1, GDP, and interest rates. It formulates the model based on Keynes' liquidity preference theory, which states that money demand is positively related to income and negatively related to interest rates. The model is estimated using OLS regression. The results show that GDP has a statistically significant positive relationship with money demand as expected, but the interest rate is statistically insignificant. However, the study notes that additional tests like unit root and cointegration were not performed, so the results may not be reliable.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document provides an analysis of currency exchange rates between the US dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen from 2007 to 2009. It finds that the US dollar has generally depreciated against other major currencies over this period due to economic factors like low interest rates, a large trade deficit, and a weakening economy in the US. In response, European and Japanese companies have taken steps like cutting export prices and shifting to higher-value goods to maintain competitiveness during currency fluctuations.
This document reviews literature on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. It finds that previous studies show inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, industrial production, and money supply can influence stock prices. Specifically, studies on stock markets in Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Africa found inflation typically has a negative impact on stock prices, while interest rates, industrial production, and exchange rates often have positive impacts. The literature review informs the study's analysis of the effects of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices on Pakistan's stock market prices.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Capital Flight on Real Exchange Rate in N...iosrjce
This study examines the dynamic effect of capital flight on the real exchange rate of the naira.
Specifically this study seeks to investigate if a long-run relationship exists between real exchange rate and
capital flight in Nigeria. This will be done using quarterly time series data covering the period 1981 to 2009. In
this process the short-run dynamics of the interactions between the two variables will be analyzed.
This document discusses the balance of payments theory of exchange rates. It argues that the exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply of a country's currency, which is influenced by the balance of payments. A deficit leads to a falling exchange rate as demand exceeds supply, while a surplus increases demand for the home currency and causes an appreciation. The theory uses demand and supply curves to show how the equilibrium exchange rate is reached when quantities demanded and supplied are equal. It has merits in providing an equilibrium analysis, but also criticisms around its assumptions and indeterminacy.
The document discusses the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, which states that the purchasing power of a currency should be the same across countries. It provides an example of how the prices of cricket bats in the US and India would converge over time due to consumers buying from the country with a lower price after accounting for exchange rates. As demand shifts between the two countries, the prices adjust until purchasing power parity is achieved and the price of bats is equivalent whether bought in the US or India when converted to a common currency.
Factors Influencing Exchange Rate: An Empirical Evidence from BangladeshMd. Shohel Rana
This study examines factors that influence exchange rate fluctuations in Bangladesh from 1987 to 2017. It analyzes the impact of remittances, GDP growth, and international trade on the real effective exchange rate. Stationarity tests and Johansen cointegration tests were used to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. VAR models and Granger causality tests found that remittances, GDP growth, and international trade significantly impact exchange rate fluctuations, explaining over 60% of variations. FMOLS tests concluded that GDP growth and international trade positively affect the exchange rate, while remittances have a negative effect. In summary, increases in GDP growth and international trade are found to increase exchange rate volatility, whereas increases in remittances decrease exchange
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
Determination of exchange rate chapter 6Nayan Vaghela
Determination of exchange rate, mint par theory, balance of payment theory, Purchasing power parity theory, Absolute version and relative version, Criticisms
A project report on overview of indian stock marketProjects Kart
The document provides an overview of the Indian stock market, including its history dating back nearly 200 years. It discusses the two major stock exchanges in India - the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It provides details on the establishment of NSE in 1992 to modernize Indian stock trading, and its role in reforming practices and increasing trading volumes through electronic trading and settlement methods. Trading at NSE includes both wholesale debt and capital markets.
A brief detail about stock market 2015. This presentation includes basic information of stock, how the stock works, how to invest in stock market, how to invest in stock market?? and such more....
A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical evid...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. The results indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. In addition, the paper reviews several other studies that have examined the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in other countries, finding mixed results.
This document summarizes a study that examined the demand for money in Nigeria over 26 years using measures of narrow and broad money, income, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock market data. The study found that Nigeria's money demand function was stable over the period examined and that income was the most significant determinant of money demand. It also found that incorporating stock market variables improved the performance of the money demand function, as stock markets have become more important for household wealth. The study recommends policies to improve stock market activities and the use of monetary targeting to control inflation.
The paper aims to see the effect of Nominal, Real (External) and Effective Exchange rates (EER) of the U.S dollar on its Terms of Trade with two of its APEC trading partners Australia and New Zealand for the period 1991 to 2010. For analysis, the whole values, percentage changes and relationships between Nominal, Real, EER and Terms of Trade of U.S with the two countries has been taken into consideration. In order to fully access the relationship between the EER and TOT of the U.S with the two trading partners, the Classical Regression analysis is used. It was found that the Real Exchange rate was overvalued as compared to the Nominal Exchange Rate. It was also found that when compared to Nominal exchange rate, Real exchange rate is more effective in explaining the TOT. The Real AUD/USD had both short run and long run impacts on the TOT of U.S.A with Australia but the Real NZD/USD had no impact on the TOT of U.S.A with New Zealand. The EER has been found to be the most effective in determining the TOT balance. The regression analysis showed a regression function of “Terms of Trade= -122.026 + 2.1 Effective Exchange Rate”. The relationship is found by coefficient correlation (r) and there is found to be a positive and strong relationship between the two variables. The 𝑟2 value shows that although some values of the TOT are caused by the EER, there are also other variables that might be influencing the EER as well. The t-values show that the values of β0 and β1 are significant. Also the F-test confirms the overall significance of the model and terms the results as authentic.
This study examines factors that influence real exchange rates in Asian economies including Japan, Korea, and Hong Kong. The methods show that real exchange rates and terms of trade can be jointly determined. Productivity differential, terms of trade, real oil prices, and reserve differentials are found to impact real exchange rates in these economies in the long run, though the impacts vary between economies. The factors influencing real exchange rate determination also differ depending on the economy's exchange rate regime and degree of openness to trade.
The relationship between oil price, exchange rate and islamic stock market in...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research journal article that examines the relationship between oil prices, exchange rates, and the Islamic stock market in Malaysia. It provides background on previous research examining the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic factors. The study aims to analyze the dynamic effects of changes in oil prices and exchange rates on Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index using vector autoregression models. Preliminary findings from monthly data from 2007 to 2011 show the Islamic stock prices are cointegrated with oil prices and exchange rates, with stock prices positively related to oil prices and inversely related to exchange rates.
This document summarizes a study that examines the nonlinear relationship between real exchange rates and bilateral trade balance between South Korea and the United States from 1985 to 2013. The study finds:
1) There is a cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and bilateral trade balance in both linear and nonlinear models, suggesting a long-run equilibrium relationship.
2) South Korea-U.S. bilateral trade balance exhibited no J-curve effect when the South Korean won depreciated against the U.S. dollar.
3) A performance evaluation found the nonlinear model was better than the linear model at predicting trade balance, indicating depreciation has a limited effect and sharp currency depreciation can hurt a country's
öRnek dönem-projesi-bitirme-tezi-ekonometri-mehmet-güçlü-tez-ödevBurhanettin NOĞAY
This study empirically analyzes Turkey's money demand function from 1987 to 2010 using annual data for M1, GDP, and interest rates. It formulates the model based on Keynes' liquidity preference theory, which states that money demand is positively related to income and negatively related to interest rates. The model is estimated using OLS regression. The results show that GDP has a statistically significant positive relationship with money demand as expected, but the interest rate is statistically insignificant. However, the study notes that additional tests like unit root and cointegration were not performed, so the results may not be reliable.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
This document provides an analysis of currency exchange rates between the US dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen from 2007 to 2009. It finds that the US dollar has generally depreciated against other major currencies over this period due to economic factors like low interest rates, a large trade deficit, and a weakening economy in the US. In response, European and Japanese companies have taken steps like cutting export prices and shifting to higher-value goods to maintain competitiveness during currency fluctuations.
This document reviews literature on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices. It finds that previous studies show inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, industrial production, and money supply can influence stock prices. Specifically, studies on stock markets in Pakistan, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and South Africa found inflation typically has a negative impact on stock prices, while interest rates, industrial production, and exchange rates often have positive impacts. The literature review informs the study's analysis of the effects of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices on Pakistan's stock market prices.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Capital Flight on Real Exchange Rate in N...iosrjce
This study examines the dynamic effect of capital flight on the real exchange rate of the naira.
Specifically this study seeks to investigate if a long-run relationship exists between real exchange rate and
capital flight in Nigeria. This will be done using quarterly time series data covering the period 1981 to 2009. In
this process the short-run dynamics of the interactions between the two variables will be analyzed.
This document discusses the balance of payments theory of exchange rates. It argues that the exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply of a country's currency, which is influenced by the balance of payments. A deficit leads to a falling exchange rate as demand exceeds supply, while a surplus increases demand for the home currency and causes an appreciation. The theory uses demand and supply curves to show how the equilibrium exchange rate is reached when quantities demanded and supplied are equal. It has merits in providing an equilibrium analysis, but also criticisms around its assumptions and indeterminacy.
The document discusses the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, which states that the purchasing power of a currency should be the same across countries. It provides an example of how the prices of cricket bats in the US and India would converge over time due to consumers buying from the country with a lower price after accounting for exchange rates. As demand shifts between the two countries, the prices adjust until purchasing power parity is achieved and the price of bats is equivalent whether bought in the US or India when converted to a common currency.
Factors Influencing Exchange Rate: An Empirical Evidence from BangladeshMd. Shohel Rana
This study examines factors that influence exchange rate fluctuations in Bangladesh from 1987 to 2017. It analyzes the impact of remittances, GDP growth, and international trade on the real effective exchange rate. Stationarity tests and Johansen cointegration tests were used to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. VAR models and Granger causality tests found that remittances, GDP growth, and international trade significantly impact exchange rate fluctuations, explaining over 60% of variations. FMOLS tests concluded that GDP growth and international trade positively affect the exchange rate, while remittances have a negative effect. In summary, increases in GDP growth and international trade are found to increase exchange rate volatility, whereas increases in remittances decrease exchange
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
Determination of exchange rate chapter 6Nayan Vaghela
Determination of exchange rate, mint par theory, balance of payment theory, Purchasing power parity theory, Absolute version and relative version, Criticisms
A project report on overview of indian stock marketProjects Kart
The document provides an overview of the Indian stock market, including its history dating back nearly 200 years. It discusses the two major stock exchanges in India - the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). It provides details on the establishment of NSE in 1992 to modernize Indian stock trading, and its role in reforming practices and increasing trading volumes through electronic trading and settlement methods. Trading at NSE includes both wholesale debt and capital markets.
A brief detail about stock market 2015. This presentation includes basic information of stock, how the stock works, how to invest in stock market, how to invest in stock market?? and such more....
Valuation of sensex, a innovative new approachTanesh Gagnani
This document presents a plan to develop a method to evaluate whether stock markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued. The method calculates implied growth rates for a stock market index over time and establishes entry and exit points based on the mean and standard deviation of historical implied growth rates. The document outlines:
1. Calculating implied growth rates for individual stocks and the overall index using price, earnings per share, cost of equity, and a constant growth valuation model.
2. Using the mean and standard deviations of implied growth rates over past years to determine buy and sell points, such as the mean - 1 standard deviation as an entry point.
3. Testing whether this market timing model generates better returns than
Dissertation Report On A Case Analysis On Enron Failurearpan_rkl
This document is a dissertation report submitted by Arpan Ghosh on a case study of Enron's failure. It includes an acknowledgment, declaration, and certificate sections. The table of contents outlines 6 chapters: an introduction providing background on Enron, a company profile, literature review, research methodology, results and discussions, and conclusions and suggestions. An abstract at the end summarizes that Enron collapsed unexpectedly in 2001 due to fraudulent accounting that hid debts and losses. The objectives are to understand the crises at Enron, its accounting irregularities, and regulatory and legal failures.
Ventura Securities Ltd. is a stock broking firm established in 1994 in Mumbai, India. It provides a range of investment products and services including equity trading, mutual funds, commodities trading, and wealth management. The company has over 25 branches across major cities in India. Ventura aims to build long-term partnerships with clients and network partners through constant innovation and a team of well-trained professionals. It strives to anticipate clients' needs and provide resources to fulfill their financial goals.
The document discusses the Indian capital markets, including the primary and secondary markets. It describes the key differences between the primary and secondary markets. The primary market involves the initial public offering of securities to raise capital, while the secondary market involves the subsequent trading of existing securities among investors on a stock exchange or over-the-counter. It provides examples of various types of financial instruments traded in the secondary market such as equity shares, government bonds, and commercial paper.
"GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND IT'S IMPACT ON INDIAN ECONOMY"Somnath Pagar
In the subsequent parts of the research report, several issues will be discussed which will provide a detailed account of the origin of the crisis (2008-spiraled mortgage crisis, starting in the United States) and the ripple effect of economic downturn of the world„s largest economy which engulfed even the fast growing emerging economies into the crisis. The main aim of the study is to find relevant answers to questions like:
Why and how India has been hit by the crisis?
How the Indian economy and the Reserve Bank of India have responded to the crisis?
Which are the opportunities arisen from the crises?
etc.
This document is a dissertation report submitted to Savitribai Phule University of Pune in partial fulfillment of a Master of Business Administration degree. The report studies the credit appraisal process of Shri Bhausaheb Thorat Amrutvahini Sahakari Bank Ltd. and The Sangamner Merchant Co-operative Bank Ltd. in Sangamner, India. It analyzes the banks' deposits, loans, non-performing assets, and profits for the year 2014. The report finds that The Sangamner Merchant Co-operative Bank has higher deposits, loans, and profits compared to Amrutvahini Bank. It also has a lower non-performing asset rate, indicating more
Healthcare information technology market in india sample (1)anupama0479
This document provides an overview of the healthcare information technology market in India. It discusses key definitions, segments of the HIT market, the current state of adoption in India, drivers and restraints. Some of the main points are:
- HIT includes both administrative and clinical systems used in healthcare settings. Adoption has been growing but is still limited, especially outside major cities and hospitals.
- Private healthcare is expanding rapidly which is increasing demand for HIT. Growth of medical tourism and health insurance are also driving factors.
- Barriers include the high initial costs, a lack of standards, limited knowledge about HIT applications, and underfunding of public healthcare.
Project report on Relationship Of Inflation with Indian Stock MarketRohit Kumar
This document appears to be a cover page and certificate for a project report submitted by Rohit Kumar to fulfill the requirements of a Bachelor of Business Studies degree from Keshav Mahavidyalaya, University of Delhi. The project report is entitled "Relationship of Inflation with Indian Stock Market" and was carried out under the supervision of Kangan Jain. The certificate confirms that the report has not been submitted for any other degree or diploma.
The document is a report submitted by Mayank Pandey to the Bank of Baroda as part of a summer training project on studying the Indian stock market. It includes sections on the research methodology used, an overview of key entities like SEBI and stock exchanges, current trends in the Indian economy and stock market, analysis of foreign exchange and commodity markets, and a conclusion with suggestions. The report provides information on the structure and functioning of the Indian capital markets for new investors.
The document provides information about Indian stock markets. It defines what a stock is as an instrument representing ownership in a corporation and a claim on its assets and profits. It then defines the stock market as a place where stocks and securities of companies are traded. It provides a brief history of stock markets including key dates and locations such as Amsterdam in 1602, London in 1698, and New York in 1792. It also discusses major Indian stock exchanges like Bombay Stock Exchange established in 1875 and National Stock Exchange established in 1992.
The document discusses security analysis of selected power sector securities listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It aims to conduct fundamental and technical analysis of leading power sector companies. The study selects six companies - NTPC, RELIANCE, POWERGRID, NHPC, TATAPOWER and ADANI POWER - to analyze their financial strength and future investment prospects through fundamental ratios and technical tools like bar charts and moving averages. The analysis seeks to evaluate company performance, stock movement, and risk-return to identify companies that ensure maximum return with minimum risk for investors in the power sector.
The document discusses the foreign exchange market. It provides background on the history of currency exchange beginning in ancient times. It then summarizes key aspects of the modern foreign exchange market, including that it consists of both wholesale and retail tiers, involves spot and forward transactions between various participants, and uses quotations structured as bids and asks with spreads. The market is unique due to its massive daily trading volume, global nature, and around the clock operations.
A project report on commodity market with special reference to gold at karvy...Babasab Patil
This document discusses a study of the commodity market with a focus on gold. It provides an overview of Karvy Commodities Broking Limited and the services it offers. The study examines the gold commodity futures market in India, how it works, and the participants involved. It analyzes the impact of the spot gold market on future gold prices and the various economic factors that affect gold future prices. The study finds a positive correlation between spot and future gold prices. It suggests that Karvy provide more awareness and education on commodity trading to investors in order to attract more customers.
The European Union has gone through many changes over its 57 year history, starting as the European Coal and Steel Community in 1950 with 6 founding members and growing to 27 members today. It was established to regulate trade and form a single market, and later took on goals like environmental protection, human rights, and asserting its role globally. Key events included the introduction of the Euro currency in 1999 and the expansion of membership over the decades through various treaties.
Business management dissertation sample for mba students by dissertation-serv...Dissertation Services
This document provides an overview of business management techniques and their role in increasing organizational productivity and efficiency. It discusses management functions like planning, organizing, leading, and controlling. It also examines management styles such as participative management. The document reviews models of productivity and ways to improve productivity. It proposes using a qualitative case study approach to analyze management techniques implemented by retailers like Tesco, Asda, and Sainsbury's in the UK. The goal is to determine which techniques best increase productivity and whether theoretical models are effectively implemented in organizations.
A study on Exchange Rates and its impact on stock pricesDaksh Bhatnagar
This document is a summer training project report submitted by Daksh Bhatnagar, an MBA student, on the topic of a study on currency exchange rates and their impact on stock prices. The report provides details about Daksh Bhatnagar's 6-week summer internship at Bonanza Portfolio Limited, including certificates of completion. It also includes an executive summary of the report and contents listing chapters on the organization and the topic of study.
Stock exchange in indian capital market ICM Mathivanan Mba
The document discusses the history and structure of stock exchanges in India. It notes that the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was established in 1875 and is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) was established more recently in 1992 with the purpose of creating a national exchange with electronic trading. There are now 21 recognized stock exchanges in India that are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The key functions of stock exchanges are to facilitate trading of securities between buyers and sellers and enable companies and governments to raise capital.
This document summarizes a research paper that studied the impact of Pakistan's KSE-100 stock market index on gold and oil prices in Pakistan from 2005 to 2011. The researcher used regression analysis and found a slight positive relationship between the KSE-100 index and both gold and oil prices, with the index explaining around 16% of variations in gold prices and 17% of variations in oil prices. However, the researcher concluded that there is no significant or obvious relationship between the variables, and that most changes in gold and oil prices are explained by other macroeconomic factors beyond the stock market index.
A Study on Exchange Rate Volatility and its Macro Economic Determinants in Indiascmsnoida5
This study aimed to identify macroeconomic determinants that affect the exchange rate of the Indian rupee (INR) against the US dollar from 2005-2015. The study examined factors causing fluctuations in the INR/USD exchange rate and analyzed the linear correlation between the exchange rate and five determinants: inflation, lending interest rates, external debt, GDP, and foreign direct investment. The findings showed a highly positive correlation between the exchange rate and external debt, a negative correlation with lending interest rates, and positive correlations with GDP and FDI. A strong correlation between the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables suggests improving export to GDP ratio and promoting foreign capital inflows to stabilize the INR/USD exchange rate.
Determinants of stock price movements in nigeria evidence from monetary varia...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research article that examined the determinants of stock price movements in Nigeria from 1985 to 2010. The researchers used cointegration tests and regression analysis to analyze the relationship between stock prices and various macroeconomic variables, including monetary policy factors like interest rates, exchange rates, and money supply as well as inflation and political instability. The results showed no long-run relationship between the variables, but inflation was found to be a major determinant of stock price movements in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities pay attention to changes in money supply and inflation given their impact on stock prices.
This document summarizes a study that modeled volatility and daily exchange rate movement between the Nigerian naira and US dollar from January 2001 to May 2019. The results found that exchange rate volatility is positively related to returns and persistent over time. It was also discovered that negative news produces more volatility than positive news of equal magnitude, indicating an asymmetric or "leverage" effect. The researchers recommend that the Central Bank of Nigeria intervene more actively to reduce excess volatility between the currencies.
International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Business and Management. IJBMI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Business and Management, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returnsMuhammad Mansoor
The document discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors on stock returns. It provides background information on financial markets, primary and secondary markets, and stock market returns. It then summarizes several empirical studies that have examined the relationship between macroeconomic variables like interest rates, inflation, GDP, exchange rates, and stock market returns in countries like Pakistan, Japan, Nigeria, and others. The studies found both positive and negative relationships between different macroeconomic factors and stock returns in various markets. The document aims to contribute to this area of research by examining the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns in the Pakistani stock market.
The document discusses factors that affect exchange rates, including inflation, interest rates, income levels, and government control. It analyzes these factors using a multiple regression model with exchange rate as the dependent variable and the other factors as independent variables. The results show that inflation, interest rates, and income levels significantly influence exchange rates, while government control is insignificant. Understanding what drives exchange rate movement is important for organizations involved in international business.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationship between real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns in Nigeria from January 1985 to June 2017. It finds a unidirectional causal relationship running from real exchange rate returns to real stock price returns, indicating that past values of real exchange rates can influence/predict present values of real stock prices. This confirms other similar findings. Tests also show unidirectional causality running from real exchange rate returns to predict future real stock price returns. Therefore, monetary policy that considers exchange rate policy can impact stock market movements in Nigeria.
Impact of Inflation and GDP Of India And the United States on Its Foreign Exc...GurpreetSingh1986
- As various countries are now getting global and are opening their market for foreign companies, various
investors are investing in those countries, which means the demand for currency is increasing, affecting the
currency exchange rate.
In this research paper, the author tries to establish the relation between macroeconomic variables like
Inflation and GDP on the currency exchange rate. The author has collected the secondary data of Inflation rate
and GDP and tries to see its relationship with the currency exchange rate system. The author has used a correlation
and regression model to analyze the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.
Co- Movements of India’s Stock Market with Bond Market and Select Global Stoc...inventionjournals
The study intends to carry out a comparative analysis of performance of stocks and bond market in India, and moreover comparing the Indian stock market with select global stock market. It is found that Indian stock market has a very high correlation with developed stock markets. And it is also found that bond market is negatively correlated with the stock market. The study indicates the existence of linear combination between stock returns of India with U.S, U.K, Japan and Government Bond market. In short, there exist a long term relationship and long run equilibrium between these markets in short run there may be disequilibrium. Comparison of India’s stock and bond market will benefit in creating optimal portfolio possessing minimum risk and maximum return, when the Indian stock or bond index facing a trouble.
Foreign exchange reserve and its impact on stock market capitalizationAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationship between India's foreign exchange reserves and stock market capitalization on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 1990-1991 to 2010-2011. Using regression analysis, unit root tests, and Granger causality tests, the research finds that foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on BSE market capitalization. The Granger causality test also shows there is unidirectional causality running from foreign exchange reserves to stock market capitalization, but not vice versa. A brief literature review discusses several other studies that have examined relationships between macroeconomic variables like exchange rates, foreign reserves, and stock market prices.
11.foreign exchange reserve and its impact on stock market capitalizationAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationship between India's foreign exchange reserves and stock market capitalization on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) from 1990-1991 to 2010-2011. Using regression analysis, unit root tests, and Granger causality tests, the research finds that foreign exchange reserves have a positive impact on BSE market capitalization. The Granger causality test indicates causality runs unidirectionally from foreign exchange reserves to stock market capitalization, not vice versa. The study aims to provide information to help stock brokers, investors, and policymakers understand how trends in foreign exchange reserves may impact India's stock markets, particularly the BSE.
It is an Study of Performance evaluation of Highest Grossing Bollywood Films on the Basis of Revenue Collection and created one formula to know actual top Bollywood movies with the help of gold prices which show or reflect the inflation. And through this study i found top 10 Bollywood movies.
A study on the impact of global currency fluctuations with a special focus to...Aman Vij
The paper discusses about the factors influencing and impact of currency fluctuations on global economy. Then we shift our focus to Indian rupees factors which causes the Rupee fluctuations has been discussed. In the end we discuss about the steps taken by the RBI and the government and what else can be done by investors to lessen the impact of Global currency fluctuations and what can be done to prevent Indian Rupee fluctuation.
1. The document discusses the relationship between trading volume, stock returns, and volatility based on an analysis of data from the Pakistan Stock Exchange from 2003-2013. It aims to understand how changes in these variables impact each other.
2. Previous research on the topic in developed markets found a positive relationship between trading volume, returns, and volatility, but little work has been done in Pakistan.
3. The study will analyze daily data from the KSE 100 index and 50 firms using ARCH and GARCH models to explore the explanatory power of past trading volume and returns on current market returns and volatility in Pakistan.
Dividend policy and share price volatility in kenyaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study that examined the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility on the Nairobi Stock Exchange from 1999-2008. The study used regression analysis to test the relationship between share price volatility (dependent variable) and two measures of dividend policy: dividend payout ratio and dividend yield (independent variables). The results showed that dividend payout ratio was negatively correlated with share price volatility, meaning higher payout ratios were associated with lower volatility. Dividend yield was positively correlated with volatility, suggesting higher yielding stocks experienced greater price fluctuations. Both relationships were statistically significant. Therefore, the study found that dividend policy influences share price volatility on the Nairobi Stock Exchange.
The Linkages of Financial Liberalization and Currency Stability: What do we l...Suwandi, Dr. SE.,MSi
The tendency of repeating history has made any financial crisis a valuable source to be explored and studied. It will make people be more prepared and ready to anticipate. This paper examined the nature of linkages between exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals over
1997-2004. It investigated the evidence on both the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate determinant factors using co-integration theory. It also explored the stability of rupiah during the pre and post economic crisis, seeking whether the Indonesian currency was overshooting or not. To test the stability of rupiah after monetary and fiscal liberalization, we employed the Chow test. The results revealed that the rupiah was overshooting during the crisis' period and there was a structural change of rupiah after 1998. Due to the significant effects of interest rate and exchange rate on the currency stability, it is important to the Indonesia’s monetary institution to be aware of these two variables, especially in stabilizing the economic performance after the financial liberalization. The elasticity obtained for relative money supply (m) is greater than unity indicating that this result consistent with overshooting hypothesis.
48 variable macroeconomics on stock return 25 ags 2019Aminullah Assagaf
This study examines the effect of macroeconomic variables (inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rates) on stock returns of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from November 2016 to June 2018. Using multiple linear regression analysis on monthly data, the study found that macroeconomic variables have a significant effect on stock returns. Specifically, changes in inflation rates, interest rates, money supply, and the Rupiah exchange rate influence the overall stock price index and company stock returns in Indonesia. The results indicate macroeconomic conditions impact stock market performance.
Similar to Information content of stock market, gold & exchange rate: An Indian market perspective (20)
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
Part 2 Deep Dive: Navigating the 2024 Slowdownjeffkluth1
Introduction
The global retail industry has weathered numerous storms, with the financial crisis of 2008 serving as a poignant reminder of the sector's resilience and adaptability. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of 2024, retailers face a unique set of challenges that demand innovative strategies and a fundamental shift in mindset. This white paper contrasts the impact of the 2008 recession on the retail sector with the current headwinds retailers are grappling with, while offering a comprehensive roadmap for success in this new paradigm.
[To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This PowerPoint compilation offers a comprehensive overview of 20 leading innovation management frameworks and methodologies, selected for their broad applicability across various industries and organizational contexts. These frameworks are valuable resources for a wide range of users, including business professionals, educators, and consultants.
Each framework is presented with visually engaging diagrams and templates, ensuring the content is both informative and appealing. While this compilation is thorough, please note that the slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be sufficient for standalone instructional purposes.
This compilation is ideal for anyone looking to enhance their understanding of innovation management and drive meaningful change within their organization. Whether you aim to improve product development processes, enhance customer experiences, or drive digital transformation, these frameworks offer valuable insights and tools to help you achieve your goals.
INCLUDED FRAMEWORKS/MODELS:
1. Stanford’s Design Thinking
2. IDEO’s Human-Centered Design
3. Strategyzer’s Business Model Innovation
4. Lean Startup Methodology
5. Agile Innovation Framework
6. Doblin’s Ten Types of Innovation
7. McKinsey’s Three Horizons of Growth
8. Customer Journey Map
9. Christensen’s Disruptive Innovation Theory
10. Blue Ocean Strategy
11. Strategyn’s Jobs-To-Be-Done (JTBD) Framework with Job Map
12. Design Sprint Framework
13. The Double Diamond
14. Lean Six Sigma DMAIC
15. TRIZ Problem-Solving Framework
16. Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
17. Stage-Gate Model
18. Toyota’s Six Steps of Kaizen
19. Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
20. Design for Six Sigma (DFSS)
To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
How to Implement a Strategy: Transform Your Strategy with BSC Designer's Comp...Aleksey Savkin
The Strategy Implementation System offers a structured approach to translating stakeholder needs into actionable strategies using high-level and low-level scorecards. It involves stakeholder analysis, strategy decomposition, adoption of strategic frameworks like Balanced Scorecard or OKR, and alignment of goals, initiatives, and KPIs.
Key Components:
- Stakeholder Analysis
- Strategy Decomposition
- Adoption of Business Frameworks
- Goal Setting
- Initiatives and Action Plans
- KPIs and Performance Metrics
- Learning and Adaptation
- Alignment and Cascading of Scorecards
Benefits:
- Systematic strategy formulation and execution.
- Framework flexibility and automation.
- Enhanced alignment and strategic focus across the organization.
3 Simple Steps To Buy Verified Payoneer Account In 2024SEOSMMEARTH
Buy Verified Payoneer Account: Quick and Secure Way to Receive Payments
Buy Verified Payoneer Account With 100% secure documents, [ USA, UK, CA ]. Are you looking for a reliable and safe way to receive payments online? Then you need buy verified Payoneer account ! Payoneer is a global payment platform that allows businesses and individuals to send and receive money in over 200 countries.
If You Want To More Information just Contact Now:
Skype: SEOSMMEARTH
Telegram: @seosmmearth
Gmail: seosmmearth@gmail.com
Industrial Tech SW: Category Renewal and CreationChristian Dahlen
Every industrial revolution has created a new set of categories and a new set of players.
Multiple new technologies have emerged, but Samsara and C3.ai are only two companies which have gone public so far.
Manufacturing startups constitute the largest pipeline share of unicorns and IPO candidates in the SF Bay Area, and software startups dominate in Germany.
IMPACT Silver is a pure silver zinc producer with over $260 million in revenue since 2008 and a large 100% owned 210km Mexico land package - 2024 catalysts includes new 14% grade zinc Plomosas mine and 20,000m of fully funded exploration drilling.
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Final ank Satta Matka Dpbos Final ank Satta Matta Matka 143 Kalyan Matka Guessing Final Matka Final ank Today Matka 420 Satta Batta Satta 143 Kalyan Chart Main Bazar Chart vip Matka Guessing Dpboss 143 Guessing Kalyan night
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing➑➌➋➑➒➎➑➑➊➍
Satta Matka Kalyan Main Mumbai Fastest Results
Satta Matka ❋ Sattamatka ❋ New Mumbai Ratan Satta Matka ❋ Fast Matka ❋ Milan Market ❋ Kalyan Matka Results ❋ Satta Game ❋ Matka Game ❋ Satta Matka ❋ Kalyan Satta Matka ❋ Mumbai Main ❋ Online Matka Results ❋ Satta Matka Tips ❋ Milan Chart ❋ Satta Matka Boss❋ New Star Day ❋ Satta King ❋ Live Satta Matka Results ❋ Satta Matka Company ❋ Indian Matka ❋ Satta Matka 143❋ Kalyan Night Matka..
Starting a business is like embarking on an unpredictable adventure. It’s a journey filled with highs and lows, victories and defeats. But what if I told you that those setbacks and failures could be the very stepping stones that lead you to fortune? Let’s explore how resilience, adaptability, and strategic thinking can transform adversity into opportunity.
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemAggregage
https://www.productmanagementtoday.com/frs/26903918/understanding-user-needs-and-satisfying-them
We know we want to create products which our customers find to be valuable. Whether we label it as customer-centric or product-led depends on how long we've been doing product management. There are three challenges we face when doing this. The obvious challenge is figuring out what our users need; the non-obvious challenges are in creating a shared understanding of those needs and in sensing if what we're doing is meeting those needs.
In this webinar, we won't focus on the research methods for discovering user-needs. We will focus on synthesis of the needs we discover, communication and alignment tools, and how we operationalize addressing those needs.
Industry expert Scott Sehlhorst will:
• Introduce a taxonomy for user goals with real world examples
• Present the Onion Diagram, a tool for contextualizing task-level goals
• Illustrate how customer journey maps capture activity-level and task-level goals
• Demonstrate the best approach to selection and prioritization of user-goals to address
• Highlight the crucial benchmarks, observable changes, in ensuring fulfillment of customer needs
Information content of stock market, gold & exchange rate: An Indian market perspective
1. A Dissertation On:
INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCK MARKET, GOLD & EXCHANGE RATE:
AN INDIAN MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Submitted To: Dr. Brajesh Kumar
By:
Sukant Arora
JGU ID: 20100040
Jindal Global Business School
Contact Number: +91-9999991334
Email ID: 10jgbs-sarora@jgu.edu.in
Page 1
2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
On completion of my dissertation, I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr.
Brajesh Kumar who guided, advised, inspired and supported me during my
project.
I am also indebted to Jindal Global Business School for giving me the opportunity
to work on this dissertation. I also take the opportunity to thank all the faculty of
the Jindal Global Business School who were directly or indirectly concerned with
the completion of my dissertation.
I would like to give full acknowledgement to the outstanding help by the library
staff of O.P Jindal Global University. I hope that this dissertation will helpful to the
readers.
Sukant Arora
Jindal Global Business School
Page 2
3. Introduction:
In the past and as well as in present, there is a lot of discussion on the macroeconomic variables
on the stock market movement. Several literatures are available establishing the linkage
between stock prices and macroeconomic variables indicating short term and the long term
relationship.
Over the period of time there have been numerous studies on different stock indices. For
example (Mayasami and Koh, 2000) investigated the dynamic relationship between Singapore
stock market and the empirical results of the study shows that the Singapore stock market is
sensitive to exchange rates.
The relationship between exchange rate and stock prices has always been in the mind of
economists since both the exchange rate and stock price play an important role in influencing
the development of an economy.
Traditional approach (at microeconomic level) states that exchange rates lead the stock prices
(Dornbusch and Fischer 1980), (Ajayi and Mongoue 1996), (Yau and Nieh 2006). While the
macroeconomics (portfolio balance) approach states that market mechanism determines the
exchange rates. It the round words, it is said that changes in stock price might have impact on
the exchange rate movements. (Granger et al. 2000), (Caporale et al. 2002), (Pan et al. 2007)
Casual relations between the stock prices and exchange rates are suggested in above stated
theories. However on the micro level, we have mixed results. Jorion (1991), Bartov and Bodnar
(1994), Choi and Prasad (1995) and Griffin and Stulz’s (2001) suggest that exchange rates
doesn’t influence the stock prices.
The results which presented in previous studies on relationship between the exchange rates
and stock price are best mixed. There are different results in the different economies and the
reasons behind this could be the difference in the trade volumes or there could be a difference
in the degree of capital mobility.
(Ma and Kao 1990) It states that currency appreciation has both a positive and negative effect
on the domestic stock market for a country which is export dominant and import-dominated.
Several empirical studies states the stock market becomes very sensitive to the domestic and
external factors (gold is one of such factors) once there is a financial deregulation in the
economy.
There are many examples from the history which shows that when there is a stock market
slump in an economy, the gold always tends to be higher.
Page 3
4. Adding to this, when we talk about the macro economy including variables such as the equity
market up and down, recession and economic prosperity, and either higher or lower consumer
price index, a layman always thinks of investing in something safe, something which has a
physical value and as well as which can be good hedge against inflation such as Gold. During the
period of stock market slump, historical data shows that gold prices tend to increase and
people show more interest to invest in gold.
International trades are generally affected by changes in the exchange rates and thus it affects
the stock market as well. When an economy’s currency is appreciating, the importers of the
domestic currency who require exchanging the same amount of any foreign currency have to
pay less which further reduces the importing costs. When the imported commodity is sold in
the economy for the same price, the profit for the firm goes up and as a result the stock price of
the firm increases. But on the other side when the economy’s currency depreciates, the
exporters of the domestic currency will receive lesser amount when they exchange the
currencies. The profit of the firm goes down as they sell at the same price and further leads to
decrease in the stock price of that firm.
The relationship of USD and Gold is perhaps the most well known in the Global Currency
markets and the USD and gold have an inverse relationship. The reason for this inverse
relationship is typically because the commodity (Gold) is used as a hedging tool against inflation
in the economy through its intrinsic metal value. When the exchange value of Dollar decreases,
it always takes more currency (Dollar) to Gold, causing increase of value of Gold against Dollar.
When the value of Dollar is at risk of fluctuation due to changes in the Monetary Policy, the
value of Gold is mostly determined by the demand and supply, and there is no interference
from changes in the corporate and monetary policies.
There were also instances of decoupling of Dollar and Gold in the past between April and
December 2005. This happened when China revalued its currency and U.S raised the interest
rates, and it facilitated them by giving opportunity to buy the commodities such as Gold. During
that period the correlation between Dollar and Gold was approximately .6579.
When there is more output from a company, its stock price tends to increase, and so as the
stock index. Indian stock market and USD shows a negative correlation. So whenever the Nifty
goes up, USD-INR goes down and vice versa. In India we see that when the stock market is
going down, people tend to invest in something which is comparatively safe or in something
which has a physical value so people tend to invest in Gold. Therefore when in there is declining
stock market, the Gold Value tends to increase so as the USD-INR. It shows that whenever the
Page 4
5. USD-INR increases or the value of Dollar against Indian Rupee increases, Gold also tends to
increase.
Page 5
6. Literature Review:
Abdalla and Murinde (1997) investigate stock prices-exchange rate relationships in the
emerging financial markets of India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines using monthly data
from 1985 to 1994. The empirical results show unidirectional causality from exchange rates to
stock prices in India, Korea and Pakistan. On the contrary, the reverse causation was found for
the Philippines.
Aggarwal (1981) examines the influence of exchange rate changes on U.S. stock prices using
monthly data for the floating rate period from 1974 to 1978. He finds that exchange rates and
stock prices and are positively correlated.
Ajayi and Mougoue (1996) examine the relationship between stock indices and the exchange
rates using the daily data from 1985 to 1991 for the eight advanced economies. According to
the results of the study, there are significant short as well as short run feedback relations
among the two financial markets. Currency depreciation has a negative both short-run and
long-run effect on the stock market. An increase in stock price has a positive long-run effect as
well as a negative short-run effect on domestic currency value.
Doong et al. (2005) examines the dynamic relationship between the exchange rates and stocks
for the six Asian countries (South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia)
for more than 14 year from 1989 to 2003. Results show that the financial variables are
integrated with each other. Except for Thailand, all the countries show that there is a
significantly negative relation between the stock returns and the contemporaneous change in
the exchange rates. Bidirectional causality can be detected in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia
and Korea in the results of the Granger causality test.
Nieh and Lee (2001) investigate the relationship between exchange rates and stock prices for
the G-7 countries and from the period October 1st 1993 to February 15th 1996 take the daily
closing exchange rates and stock market indices. Result of the study was that there is long run
equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and stock prices for each G-7 countries.
There is no correlation in the United States of America but a significant short run relationship
has been found in certain G-7 countries. The results might be explained by country’s
differences in government policy, economic stage etc.
Tsoukalas (2003) investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices
in Cyprus. The result of study shows strong relationship between exchange rates and stock
prices. The reason of this is that Cypriot economy depends on services (import sector) such as
tourism etc.
Pan et al. (2007) take the data over the period of 1988 to 1998 of the seven Asian countries to
examine the dynamic relationship between the stock prices and exchange rates. The results of
Page 6
7. the study reveal that in Hong Kong before the 1997 Asian crises there is a bidirectional causal
relation. There is a unidirectional causal relation from stock prices and exchange rates for
Thailand, Malaysia and Japan and stock prices to exchange rate for Singapore and Korea. In
1997 during the Asian crises, except Malaysia there is only a causal relation from exchange
rates to stock prices for all the countries.
Hatemi-J and Irandoust (2002) studied a causal relation between the stock prices and exchange
rates in Sweden. Over the period of 1993-98 they used the stock prices and the monthly
nominal effective exchange rates. A result of the study was that Granger causality is
unidirectional from stock prices to exchange rates.
Kim (2003) over the period 1974-1998 uses monthly data in the United States of America and
the empirical results of the study reveal that Standards & Poor’s common stock price is
negatively related to the exchange rate.
Ozair (2006) investigates the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in the
United States of America by using the quarterly data over the period 1964-2000. Results of the
study showed that there is no integration and no causal relationship between stock prices and
exchange rates.
Muhammad and Rasheed (2002) investigates the relationship between exchange rates and
stock prices for the countries like India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan using the monthly
data from 1994 to 2000. The empirical results of the study show that for Bangladesh and Sri
Lanka there is bi-directional long run causality between exchange rates and stock prices. No
relationship found between exchange rates and stock prices for Pakistan and India.
Smyth and Nandha (2003) examine the association between stock prices and exchange rates for
the countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and India over the period 1995-2001. Results
of the study made it clear that there is no long run relationship between exchange rates and
stock prices. Also, there is unidirectional causality running from exchange rates to stock prices
for only Sri Lanka and India. Stock Prices got influenced by change in exchange rates through
influencing firm’s export in Sri Lanka and India.
Ajayi et al. (1998) examines causal relationship between changes in exchanges rates and stock
returns for the eight Asian emerging markets from 1987 to 1991 and for seven advanced
markets from 1985 to 1991, by taking the daily exchange rates and market indexes. The
empirical results of the study show that there is unidirectional causality between the exchange
rates and the stock price in all the advance economies, while there is no consistent causal
relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in emerging markets. They differentiated
Page 7
8. advanced and emerging economies by drawing our differences in the characteristics and
structure of financial markets between these groups.
Erbaykal and Okuyan (2007) for the 13 developing economies investigate relationship between
stock price and exchange rates using different time periods for each economy. Empirical results
of the study clearly show that there is a causality relation for eight economies. There is
unidirectional causality from stock prices to exchange rates in five economies and bidirectional
causality relation is there for three economies.
Wang et al. (2001) explored the impact of fluctuations in gold price and exchange rates of U.S
Dollar vs. various currencies on the stock prices indices of the United States, Germany, Taiwan,
Japan and China as well as the short and long term correlations between these variables.
Empirical results of the study show that there is existence of co-integration among fluctuations
in gold price and the exchange rate of the dollar vs. various currencies indicating there is long
term stable relationship between these variables.
Ibrahim and Aziz (2003) used monthly data over the period 1977-1998 to analyze the dynamic
linkages between the four macroeconomic variables and stock prices for Malaysia. The
empirical results show that stock prices are negatively associated with the exchange rates.
Kurihara (2006) investigates the relationship between daily stock prices and macroeconomic
variables in Japan from March 2001 to September 2005. He takes exchange rate (Yen/U.S
Dollar), the Japanese interest rate, U.S stock prices and Japanese stock prices for the study.
The empirical results show that Japanese stock prices are not influenced by domestic interest
rate. However the Japanese stock prices are affected by the U.S stock prices and exchange rate
i.e. Yen/U.S Dollar. Japanese stock prices were influenced by the quantitative easing policy
which was implemented in 2001.
Page 8
9. Objective of the Study:
To determine the relationship between the Indian Stock Market; Gold prices and the
exchange rate i.e. USD- INR (U.S Dollar and Indian Rupee) during the pre and post crisis
period.
The study will help in creating a hedging strategy so that an efficient portfolio can be
created.
The study will analyze the data from January 2005 to December 2007 and January 2009 to
July 2011.
Data and Methodology:
Daily closing price of S&P CNX Nifty, Gold and USD/INR exchange rate obtained from the
National Stock Exchange, Gold.org and Reserve Bank of India constitutes the data set from
January 2005 to December 2007 and January 2009 to July 2011. The gold prices, stock index
and the USD/INR are continuously rate of returns, computed as the first difference of the
natural logarithm of the daily gold price, USD/INR exchange rate value and stock index.
Basic statistical analysis of the data which will include time series analysis will be done with the
help of Ms. Excel.
Page 9
16. USD-INR & NIFTY:
Correlation USD-INR & NIFTY
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
0.0000
-0.0500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.1000 Correlation USD-INR & NIFTY
-0.1500
-0.2000
-0.2500
-0.3000
-0.3500
The result of the study carried out shows that during the most of the period, there is a negative
correlation between the USD-INR and the S&P CNX NIFTY. It shows that when the value of the
domestic currency appreciates in comparison to the foreign currency, US Dollar in this case, it
takes less amount of domestic currency in order to exchange for the foreign currency and thus
importers have to pay less and exporters could gain more. As a result output of the firm or a
company increases and further leads to increase in the stock price, ultimately leading to the
upward trend of stock market. On the contrary when an economy’s domestic currency
depreciates, it takes more domestic currency in order to exchange the foreign currency and
thus leading to less profit on exports and more cost of importing the goods. This cause in
reduction of the output and profits as well, thus we can see decline in the stock price of a
company or a firm further leading to downward trend in the stock market. Here we see that
during the global financial crisis period, negative correlation among two goes on increasing,
which clearly indicates the negative relationship in both the variables. But we can also see that
during certain periods the correlation was positive as well, the reasons for this were more
foreign direct investment in our economy, our poor gross domestic production and the global
appreciation of the US Dollar.
Page 16
17. USD-INR & GOLD:
Correlation USD-INR & GOLD
0.2000
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
Correlation USD-INR & GOLD
0.0000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.0500
-0.1000
-0.1500
The relationship of USD and Gold is perhaps the most well known in the Global Currency
markets and the USD and gold have an inverse relationship. The reason for this inverse
relationship is typically because the commodity (Gold) is used as a hedging tool against inflation
in the economy through its intrinsic metal value. When the exchange value of Dollar decreases,
it always takes more currency (Dollar) to Gold, causing increase of value of Gold against Dollar.
The result of the study carried out shows that during the pre-crisis period there was a positive
correlation between the two variables and during the post crisis period we see evident negative
correlation. We observe that whenever the Indian currency depreciates, causing a decline in
stock market, Gold is always the first and the safest choice to invest.
When an economy’s currency is appreciating, the importers of the domestic currency who
require exchanging the same amount of any foreign currency have to pay less which further
reduces the importing costs. When the imported commodity is sold in the economy for the
same price, the profit for the firm goes up and as a result the stock price of the firm increases.
But on the other side when the economy’s currency depreciates, the exporters of the domestic
currency will receive lesser amount when they exchange the currencies. The profit of the firm
goes down as they sell at the same price and further leads to decrease in the stock price of that
firm.
Page 17
18. NIFTY & GOLD:
Correlation NIFTY & GOLD
0.0400
0.0200
0.0000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-0.0200
-0.0400
-0.0600 Correlation NIFTY & GOLD
-0.0800
-0.1000
-0.1200
-0.1400
-0.1600
The result of the study carried out shows that during the most of the period, we observed both
the positive and the negative correlation among the two variables. The reason for this is Gold
having a good physical value. People have a strong tendency to buy Gold in India as it is
considered as a safe investment because of the physical value and people in India buy Gold
because of the emotional quotient as well as it is considered the best commodity for auspicious
occasions.
Despite this factor, we see a negative correlation between the two variables because when
people we see that a stock is not performing well, so as the stock market and they are not
satisfied with the returns they get from the stock market, they for the safest investment in Gold
considering it has a good physical value. Therefore more investment in gold (more demand)
causes increase in gold prices. So whenever we see a stock market slump, we observe rise in
prices of Gold as people see Gold as a safe investment, showing the negative correlation
between two variables.
Page 18
19. ROOT MIN SQAURE ERROR ANALYSIS:
USD-INR & NIFTY NIFTY & GOLD USD-INR & GOLD
Correlation -0.1074 -0.0210 0.0515
RMSE 150 0.1223 0.0743 0.1129
RMSE 100 0.1679 0.0923 0.1329
RMSE 50 0.1679 0.1313 0.1634
RMSE 25 0.2190 0.1894 0.2116
0.2500
0.2000
0.1500
0.1000
USD-INR & NIFTY
0.0500 NIFTY & GOLD
USD-INR & GOLD
0.0000
Correlation RMSE 150 RMSE 100 RMSE 50 RMSE 25
-0.0500
-0.1000
-0.1500
As we are increasing the moving correlation from data set of 25 variables to data set of 150
variables, we can observe that error is becoming less but on the contrary we are losing the
variables.
Page 19
21. Hedging Strategies:
Long investment in the stock market can be hedged by a long investment of the equal
amount of the currency pair i.e. USD-INR or equivalent long investment in Gold. In
currency segment currency options are the best hedging tools.
Long investment in the currency market can be hedged by a long investment of the
equal amount in stock market or equivalent long investment in Gold.
Long investment in the gold can be hedged by a long investment of the equal amount of
the currency pair i.e. USD-INR. In currency segment currency options are the best
hedging tools
Page 21
22. References:
1. Abdalla, I.S.A. and V. Murinde, 1997, “Exchange Rate and Stock Price Interactions in
Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan, and Philippines,” Applied
Financial Economics 7, 25-35
2. Aggarwal, R., 1981. “Exchange rates and stock prices: A study of the United States
capital markets under floating exchange rates”, Akron Business and Economic Review 12
(fall), pp. 7-12.
3. Ajayi, R.A., Friedman, J., and Mehdian, S. M., 1998. “On the relationship between
stock returns and exchange rates: Test of granger causality”, Global Finance Journal 9 (2),
pp. 241–251.
4. Ajayi, R. A. and Mougoue, 1996, “On the Dynamic Relation between Stock Price and
Exchange Rates, “Journal of Financial Research 19, 193-207. Dornbusch, R. and S. Fischer,
1980, “Exchange Rates and Current Account,” American Economic Review 70, 960-71
5. Caporale, G.M., Pittis, N., and Spagnolo, N., 2002. “Testing for causality-in-variance: an
application to the East Asian markets”, International Journal of Finance & Economics 7
(3), pp. 235-245.
6. Chung S. Kwon and Tai S. Shin (1999), “Co integration and Causality between
Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns”, Global Finance Journal, 10(1), 71-81.
7. Cumhur Erdem and Cem Kaan Arslan and Meziyet Sema Erdem (2005), “Effects of
Macroeconomic Variables on Istanbul Stock Exchange Indexes”, Applied Financial
Economics, 15(14), 987-994
8. Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger, 1987, “Co-integration and Error Correction:
Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica 55, 251-76
9. George Hondroyiannis and Evangelia Papapetrou (2001), “Macroeconomic Influences on
the Stock Market”, Journal of Economics and Finance, 25(1), 33-49.
10. Granger, C. W. J., 1986, “Developments in the Study of Co-integrated Economic Variables,”
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48:3 213-28
11. Granger, C. W. J., 1988, “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality,” Journal
of Monetary Economics, 39, 199-106
Page 22
23. 12. Ibrahim, H and Aziz, H., 2003. “Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity
market: A view through rolling subsamples”, Journal of Economic Studies 30(1), pp. 6-27
13. Kurihara, Yutaka, 2006. “The Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock Prices during
the
14. Quantitative Easing Policy in Japan”, International Journal of Business 11(4), pp.375-386.
15. Muhammad, Naeem and Rasheed, Abdul, 2002. “Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are
They
16. Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries”, the Pakistan Development Review 41(4),
pp.535-550
17. Ramasamy, B. and M. Yeung, 2001, “The Causality between Stock Returns and Exchange
Rates: Revisited,” Research Paper Series, 11, Division of Business and Management,
the University of Nottingham in Malaysia
18. Smyth, R. and Nandha, M., 2003. “Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock
prices in South Asia”, Applied Economics Letters 10, pp. 699–704
19. Tsoukalas, Dimitrios, 2003. “Macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the emerging
Cypriot equity market”, Managerial Finance 29(4), pp. 87-92.
20. Vaihekoski, M., & Patari, E. (2007). “Gold Investments and Short- and Long-Run Price
Determinants of the Price of Gold”. Lappeenranta University of Technology, School of
Business Finance, 1-77.
Page 23