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FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
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FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
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Michael Herlache MBA
Doctor of Business Administration Candidate
VP, M&A at AltQuest Group
Svitlana Herlache
Analyst, M&A at AltQuest Group
FameLinked
The Fame Network & Marketplace
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For my wife, Svitlana, whom is my treasure.
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About the Author:
Michael Herlache is the VP of M&A at AltQuest Group, a middle
market boutique investment bank located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
He lives in his home in Florida with his wife, Svitlana. Michael has an
MBA in Finance from Texas A&M University and is getting his
Doctorate in Business Administration with a focus on finance. To
learn more about AltQuest Group, please go to www.AltQuest.com.
For those interested in going through a formal perpetuity training
program associated with this text, the Unicon University
(www.VCFounders.com) course’s syllabus is based upon the content
of this book.
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Contents
PERPETUITY:
Chapter 1: How to Build a Perpetuity Methodology
Chapter 2: FameLinked
Chapter 3: Traction Methodology
PERPETUITY SCIENCE:
Part I: Perpetuity Methodology
Chapter 1: What is Business?
Chapter 2: What is a Perpetuity?
Chapter 3: What Education Teaches vs. What Education Should Teach
FOUNDATIONS OF VALUATION:
Part I: Tracking Value (Accounting)
Chapter 3: Tracking Value with Accounts
Part II: Analyzing Value (Finance)
Chapter 4: Analyzing Value with Finance
Part III: Modeling Value
Chapter 5: Finance with Excel
Chapter 6: Financial Statement Modeling
BUILD-SIDE:
Part I: How to Build a Perpetuity?
Chapter 49: How to Build a Benefit Stream?
Chapter 50: How to De-Risk the Benefit Stream?
Chapter 51: The Value Perpetuity
Part II: Perpetuity Analysis
Chapter 52: How to Be a CEO?
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Chapter 53: How to Be a Consultant?
Part III: Perpetuity Modeling & Valuation
Chapter 58: Valuation Methodologies
Chapter 59: Framing Valuation
Part IV: Perpetuity Engineering
Chapter 54: How to Be an Engineer?
Chapter 54: Knowledge Engineering
Chapter 55: Content Engineering
Chapter 56: Platform Engineering
Part V: Perpetuity Management
Chapter 57: Perpetuity Management
Chapter 61: Index Building & Benchmarking
Chapter 62: Financial Data Sources
Part VI: The Market for Perpetuities
Chapter 60: The Market for Perpetuities
SELL-SIDE:
Part I: How to Sell a Perpetuity?
Chapter 18: Investment Banking
Chapter 19: How to Become an Investment Banker Methodology
Part II: The Middle Market
Chapter 20: Middle Market Breakdown
Part III: M&A Multiples
Chapter 21: M&A Multiples
Part IV: Investment Banking Coverage Methodology
Chapter 22: Investment Banking Coverage Methodology
Chapter 23: Index Building & Benchmarking
Chapter 24: Financial Data Sources
Chapter 25: Industry or Sector Newsletter
Chapter 26: Industry or Sector Report
Chapter 27: Rolodex Building
Part V: M&A Origination Methodology
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Chapter 28: M&A Origination Methodology
Part VI: Mandate/Target Matching Methodology
Chapter 29: Mandate/Target Matching Methodology
Part VII: Deal Structuring
Chapter 30: Deal Structuring
Part VIII: M&A Process
Chapter 32: M&A Process
Part IX: Investment Bank Management
Chapter 33: How to Build a Boutique Investment Bank?
Chapter 34: Running the Boutique Investment Bank
Part X: Deliverables & Coverage
Chapter 35: Investment Banking Deliverables
Chapter 36: Adjusted EBITDA
Chapter 37: Valuation
Chapter 38: Teaser
Chapter 39: CIM (Confidential Information Memorandum)
BUY-SIDE:
Part I: How to Buy a Perpetuity?
Chapter 40: The Principle of Investing
Chapter 41: How to Be a Warren Buffett?
Chapter 42: The Operating Model
Chapter 43: The Financial Buyer aka Private Equity (LBO)
Chapter 44: The Strategic Buyer aka Corporation (Merger)
Chapter 45: Perpetuity Science & Portfolio Theory
Chapter 46: How to Start a LMM Search Fund?
CASES:
Part XVIII: Cases
Chapter 47: Cases
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Preface
We have all heard about the buy side and the sell side of finance, but
who is actually building the perpetuities. What if there was a third
side of finance? What if there was a build-side, with individuals
possessing IB/PE and platform development talents to use in the
building of perpetuities? Shouldn't that be the logical course of
events with individuals taking their knowledge of valuation and
industries and putting them to use in building the next unicorns?
So what would this look like? IB/PE professionals joining startup labs
such as the one I run called Founders Ventures
(www.VCFounders.com) to work on concepts that have a legitimate
chance of being a unicorn. Rather than leaving one's job to join a
questionable startup, join a startup lab and be directly involved in the
build-side, even if it part-time. The work of the build-side is
syndication.
Shouldn't we all be working towards getting on the build-side?
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Perpetuity
The primary output in a capitalist economy is the perpetuity. The
inputs include industry as the uses and the capital markets as the
sources of capital. The perpetuity is an asset with a benefit stream
that extends into the future continuously.
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Chapter 1:
How to Build a Perpetuity
Methodology
At Founders Ventures, we are often asked, “How to build a
perpetuity?” so we decided to take our approach and build an official
methodology around the process.
How to Build a Perpetuity Methodology:
1. The Case for a Perpetuity
2. MVP
3. Value Perpetuity
4. Financial Perpetuity
5. Growing Financial Perpetuity
6. Diversified Perpetuity
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Chapter 2:
FameLinked
FameLinked
Challenge & Opportunity: The average person spends 1.4 hours per
day on social networks and social media. Up until now, social
networks and social media have been a tool of expression and
connecting. FameLinked believes that the networks built and activity
within these networks are assets that can be brought online and
monetized. This untapped network reach makes for corporate
sponsorship opportunities for all sized businesses for those with high
activity levels in large networks. By ranking individuals with a
proprietary FameRank algorithm based upon their activity and
network size/quality, businesses can find brand advocates and award
them with corporate sponsorships or micro-ads that are
disseminated throughout their network on a one-time or periodic
basis. By allowing users to monetize their social presence,
FameLinked has created a network and marketplace for fame.
Key Question: How to Monetize Social?
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FameLinked Methodology:
Provide a ranked social network where activity within the platform
allows you to earn Fame Points which are the basis of your FameRank
within the network. The most active users receive the highest
FameRank and receive paid corporate sponsorships in the Fame
Marketplace.
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In terms of the methodology that is used by FameLinked, we have
the FameLinked Methodology as described in the book, FameLinked:
The Fame Network & Marketplace:
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In terms of messaging on social networks to drive followership, we
utilized branded photos to generate brand awareness:
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In terms of building the perpetuity we are building a following first
based upon our methodology on various social platforms including
Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:
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In terms of converting followership into usership, the following are
the conversion metrics after we started requesting that our followers
become users:
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Chapter 3:
Traction Methodology
Traction Methodology:
I. Facebook + Instagram + Twitter: “Follow followers’ followers”: Follow back at
20%
II. Deliverables & Snapshots of Progress (Methodology & Followership)
a. Deliverables:
i. Animated video commercial
ii. Book
iii. Perpetuity presentation
iv. Demo video with founders
v. Infographic
vi. Thumbnail and bar
vii. Png selfies of founders with logo/icon
III. Post snapshots of followership on one platform on the other platforms (social
proofing)
IV. Personal message to try platform: “Yes” at 6% follower to user
V. Valuation at $1 to $10 per user
Example:
Follow 1,000,000
X 20% follow back
= 200,000 followers
X 6% follower to user conversion
= 12,000 users
@ ~$5 per user
= $60,000 valuation of platform
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Perpetuity Science
The standard MBA curriculum at most business schools is broken
down along siloed subjects such as accounting, finance,
management, operations, and marketing and attempts to teach
students how to be a mid-level manager at a large corporation for
the rest of their lives. Unfortunately, these jobs are mostly gone,
having been shipped overseas or automated. This MBA curriculum is
thus outdated and not appropriate for the 21st century when most
individuals will have multiple jobs and roles throughout their careers
and lives.
The more appropriate field of study which has yet to make it to
business schools is known as Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is
the body of knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models
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related to the building, selling, and buying of perpetuities. It explains
how perpetuities can be built, managed and exited from to create
wealth. Perpetuity science is a paradigm shift in business and finance
education in that it replaces the siloed subjects traditionally taught in
undergraduate and graduate business schools with a holistic
methodology that integrates industry and the capital markets into
one framework.
Instead of a disparate business taxonomy along the lines of
economics, finance, accounting, marketing, etc., we have an initial
taxonomy broken down in relation to the perpetuity, namely:
Build-side – the building of perpetuities (entrepreneurs, corporations)
Sell-side – the selling of perpetuities (investment bankers, wall street)
Buy-side – the buying of perpetuities (private equity, corporate M&A)
Within each of the three, we have various methodologies and
optimization models that may touch on various subjects such as
accounting, finance, economics. By starting with perpetuity science
however, the student can better synthesize the various moving parts
of industry and the capital markets.
When first learning about industry and the capital markets, one
should first understand the nature of the perpetuity, which is the
basis for industry & the capital markets. The perpetuity can be
modeled with the following formula:
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Perpetuity value = CF / r
Where CF represents the benefit stream associated with the
perpetuity and r represents the discount rate associated with the
perpetuity’s risk of receiving the benefit stream.
After understanding the nature of the perpetuity in general, we can
then analyze the nature of the perpetuity within each industry. The
nature of the CF, r, value chain, and value being offered will be
different. We investigate each industry according to these variables
by building an index for each industry and then sub-sector within the
industry.
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After building the index and sub-sector indices we can then begin
analyzing the value chain and leaders in each part of the value chain.
We then build financial statement models for the leaders in each
section of the value chain and understand the drivers of performance.
We analyze each leader or target in relation to the phases of
perpetuity in terms of where they are now and the next steps that
they can take to move to the next phase. In doing so, one begins to
think in terms of being a CEO. The CEO’s role is to bring the
company/opportunity through the stages of the perpetuity by
building recurring benefit streams (i.e. cash flows) and at the same
time de-risking those benefit streams. In doing so, the valuation of
the perpetuity moves from backward looking towards forward
looking and the valuation is thus maximized (based upon a multiple
of future earnings).
The CEO should thus be familiar with Perpetuity Science and the
phases of the perpetuity.
As the perpetuity changes, the formula for valuing the perpetuity
changes as well. There are five phases of perpetuity building. As we
move through the phases, the role of the owner of the perpetuity
becomes more passive and the valuation becomes larger due to size
of EBITDA increasing, EBITDA multiple increasing, and the discount
rate decreasing. The perpetuity becomes less dependent on the
owner to exist and run as an organizational structure is formed
coinciding with the division of labor, processes are automated, and
revenue becomes recurring.
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Phases of the Perpetuity:
I. Syndication (Getting to PMT)
II. Job Shop (From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc)
III. Perpetuity (From PMTi to CF/r)
IV. Growing Perpetuity (From CF/r to CF/r– g)
V. Diversified (Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2)
The goal of Perpetuity Science is the building, growing, management,
exit and buying of perpetuities, so ultimately, while learning about
Perpetuity Science itself, we are also actively looking for:
1. Perpetuities to create
2. How to advance a perpetuity to the next phase
3. Perpetuities that should be exited from
4. Perpetuities that should be purchased
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Ultimately, Perpetuity Science transforms the individual from a one-
dimensional functional worker into a multi-dimensional value-creator
able to execute on either of the three sides of the perpetuity; build
side, sell side, or buy side.
The Perpetuity Scientist vs. The Functional Specialist
The Perpetuity Scientist builds assets that generate passive benefits
whereas the functional specialist uses labor to generate active
benefits. The quality of life of the perpetuity scientist is thus higher
than the functional specialist. It is the perpetuity scientist that drives
the primary value with functional specialists simply serving a role in
the process of building or operating a perpetuity.
The Perpetuity Scientist has the three capabilities associated with the
key question of each side of the perpetuity:
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Build-Side:
Key Question: How to Build a Perpetuity?
Capability: The capability to build a perpetuity
Sell-Side:
Key Question: How to Sell a Perpetuity?
Capability: The capability to sell a perpetuity
Buy-Side:
Key Question: How to Buy a Perpetuity?
Capability: The capability to buy a perpetuity
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Capabilities that each business student should have are associated
with the 3 key questions of Perpetuity Science:
Perpetuity Science:
I. Build side: How to build a perpetuity?
II. Sell side: How to sell a perpetuity?
III. Buy side: How to buy a perpetuity?
The key questions are associated with capabilities to be built learning
perpetuity science.
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From this methodology, Investment Banking University has built a
body of knowledge which turned into the course, How to Become an
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Investment Banker. The book, Investment Banking, is meant to
accompany the course which can be taken online, in the weekend
workshop, or in the month-long training.
When asking the key question, “How to Become an Investment
Banker?”, we are really asking four questions simultaneously:
1. How to use finance to model the concept in a perpetuity format?
2. How to physically build the perpetuity?
3. How to sell/exit the perpetuity?
4. How to buy a perpetuity?
For each question, Investment Banking University has developed
proprietary methodologies which are the basis for building a
capability which is the ultimate answer to the question.
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When the individual implements these models and builds the
capabilities in finance, the build side, the sell side and the buy side,
one may claim to have become an investment banker.
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Part I:
Perpetuity Methodology
Consistent with Perpetuity Science, the Perpetuity Methodology is
broken down between the three aspects of the perpetuity and also
has the foundations of valuation to tie it all together:
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Chapter 1:
What is Business?
When thinking about business we have to acknowledge the sources
and uses associated with a corporation where sources represent the
capital markets and uses represents the asset mix of the corporation.
Business can be thought of as a process where the output is a benefit
stream with a given level of variability. This benefit stream with a
given level of variability is known as a perpetuity. Thus, the model for
business is the perpetuity.
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Since we know that a perpetuity is the model for business (the
integration of industry and the capital markets), we can then build a
body of knowledge around the perpetuity which serves as the basis
for the science of the perpetuity (Perpetuity Science):
The body of knowledge known as Perpetuity Science can be broken
down in the following manner:
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The rest of this text goes into detail regarding the taxonomy of
Perpetuity Science and investigates each component.
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Chapter 2:
What is a Perpetuity?
Nature does not provide for man, so he must use reason to obtain
value. Since his task is both survival and pleasure, man must use
philosophy and science to determine what is valuable and then to
build something to obtain said value. That which he builds should not
require the same work continually to operate; this is the basis for the
perpetuity. A perpetuity is an asset that generates a benefit stream
continuously into the future. Perpetuity is the basis for intrinsic value.
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All of mans progress is towards the creation of assets that add value
on behalf of the human on a continuous basis into the future without
the human having to replicate previous work to receive benefits. This
phenomena is referred to as the perpetuity. This speaks to the
advancement from the active benefit stream towards the passive
benefit stream (perpetuity). The perpetuity is both a philosophical
and scientific phenomena which embodies mans progress in both
philosophy and science.
Perpetuity can thus be broken down into:
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1. Perpetuity Philosophy
2. Perpetuity Science
For the purposes of this book, we will be focusing on Perpetuity
Science.
Standard of Living: Perpetuities
The Goal
To increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of life.
How to Get the Goal
In order to increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of
life, one is to build, sell or buy perpetuities.
Perpetuity
Perpetuities increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of
life by possessing recurring revenue and automated work processes
to achieve the revenue.
I. Building Perpetuities
The building of perpetuities is known as being on the build-side;
commonly referred to as entrepreneurship or corporations.
II. Buying Perpetuities
The buying of perpetuities is known as investment or being on the
buy-side. The players here are Private Equity (PE) or Corporate M&A
Departments for major corporations.
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III. Selling Perpetuities
The selling of perpetuities is known as the sell-side. The players here
are investment bankers (Wall Street).
The Lab of Perpetuities
The experimentation and optimization tool of finance is known as
Excel.
Excel
Is the scientific computational tool of finance to aid us in the
modeling and valuation of perpetuities.
Demand for Perpetuities
There is always demand for perpetuities and especially by
institutional investors which means that the market for corporate
control more closely mirrors the DCF (intrinsic value) of the
perpetuity (corporation). Institutional investors can pay higher
multiples in order to realize returns over longer periods of time.
Types of Perpetuities
Perpetuities can be created from companies that possess some
aspect of recurring revenue and automated work processes
associated with product creation.
At a high level, types of perpetuities include:
I. Commodity
a. Durables
b. Non-durables
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II. Platform
a. Digital
b. Physical
III. Content
a. Educational
b. Entertainment
IV. Service
a. Analysis
b. Allocation
c. Engineering
d. Logistics
e. Management
f. Advocacy
g. Relationship
V. Infrastructure
a. Private
i. Real estate
b. Public
From the types of perpetuities, when applied to the main value
themes of human existence we arrive at industries associated with
the perpetuities (according to Aswath Damodaran at NYU):
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When looking at the different industries in which perpetuities are
located, it becomes helpful to understand the nature of the
perpetuities including risk (as represented by the discount rate in the
perpetuity formula), return, growth, margins, multiples, and cash
flow:
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Risk (discount rate) on the following page:
Return:
Growth:
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Margins (Cash flow):
Multiples:
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Business: The Science of the Perpetuity
Introduction to Business
Business is the science of the perpetuity
Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate
As you can see we can increase value by increasing CF (increasing
revenues, decreasing COGS, SG&A) or decreasing the discount rate.
The Corporation’s Goal
1. Become a perpetuity - as characterized by recurring revenue as
automated work processes.
2. Become a growing perpetuity
Value of growing perpetuity = CF / r – g
g decreases the discount rate
One should make the distinction between a perpetuity and a
commodity. A commodity is associated with a single benefit (cash
flow) or a finite benefit stream, whereas the benefit stream of a
perpetuity is continuous into the future.
What is Intrinsic Value?
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Something is intrinsically valuable inasmuch as it is a perpetuity.
Perpetuity provides certainty that the benefit stream will be recurring
in the future and is thus, the basis for intrinsic value. Perpetuities
allow us to improve our standard of living while not sacrificing quality
of life by continually dealing with a problem/opportunity in nature
and yielding passive benefits.
How to Become Wealthy?
The secret that the wealthy know and the middle class is unaware of
is the perpetuity. A perpetuity is an asset that generates a benefit
stream continuously into the future. This yields passive benefits
rather than active benefits of which the middle class works for. The
wealthy know Perpetuity Science which is the science of building,
selling & buying perpetuities. There are three sides to the perpetuity:
1. Build-Side - How to Build a Perpetuity? (entrepreneurs, corporations)
a. How to Build a Benefit Stream?
i. Case for Value Perpetuity and Financial Perpetuity
ii. MVP
iii. Value Perpetuity
iv. Financial Perpetuity
v. Growing Financial Perpetuity
vi. Diversified
b. How to De-Risk the Benefit Stream?
i. Customer Concentration
ii. Owner Dependence
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iii. Recurring Revenue
2. Sell-Side - How to Sell a Perpetuity? (investment bankers, wall street)
3. Buy-Side - How to Buy a Perpetuity? (private equity, corporate M&A)
Ultimately, the wealthy teach their children how to be 21st century
perpetuity scientists rather than 20th century functional specialists
that will remain in the middle class.
In terms of order, the process is usually:
1. Begin on the build-side building a perpetuity which will take 3 to 5
years (initiate coverage and syndicate within a vertical & sub-vertical)
2. Enter the sell-side and begin in investment banking after
university/business school (within existing investment bank or start
own boutique investment bank)
3. From the sell-side, take advantage of strong opportunities and
leverage this into a LMM search fund
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FOUNDATIONS OF
VALUATION
In order to understand the role and work of the investment banker,
we need to first have a strong understanding of the foundations of
valuation. This helps us to understand why it is that the investment
banking industry exists and where investment bankers fit into the
bigger picture.
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Part II:
Tracking Value
(Accounting)
As a perpetuity is built, it becomes necessary to track the financial
existence of the perpetuity through time. Accounting is the set of
concepts, methodologies, and models that allows us to do exactly
that.
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Chapter 6:
Tracking Value with Accounts
Value
The formula for value is:
Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate
Accounts and Accounting
In order to track valuation performance of the perpetuity (i..e
business), companies create accounts for each item of it’s financial
existence. These accounts are the basis of valuation. Valuation is the
basis of actions taken in a capitalist economy.
Accounts, Accounting & Excel
Excel is the software used to model the accounts of the enterprise
and determine the valuation of the perpetuity (i.e. business).
Account Filings & Public Data
10-K annual
10-Q quarterly
Account Statements: P&L
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Income statement (P&L):
Revenues
COGS
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
EBIT
Interest Cost
EBT
Taxes
Earnings
Account Statements: Balance Sheet
Assets = Liabilities + Shareholder’s Equity
Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Shareholder’s Equity
Current Assets + Long Term Assets = Current Liabilities + Long Term
Liabilities + Value of Shares Previously Issued + Retained Earnings –
Treasury Stock
Account Statements: Statement of Cash Flows
CF from Operating
CF from Investing
CF from Financing
Statement of Cash Flows is the linkage between the income
statement and the balance sheet.
Get D&A from SCF (CF from Operations) and CAPEX from SCF (CF
from Investing)
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The following is a 10-K from Berkshire Hathaway:
The following is a 10-Q from Berkshire Hathaway:
The following is the IS from Berkshire Hathaway:
The following is the BS from Berkshire Hathaway:
The following is the SCF from Berkshire Hathaway:
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Part VI:
Analyzing Value with
Models (Finance)
As the economic existence of the perpetuity continues to grow, one
becomes interested in the value of the perpetuity. Enter finance,
whose concepts, methodologies, and models allow us to understand
the valuation of the perpetuity.
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Chapter 7:
Analyzing Value with Models
Analyzing Value
Strategics, financials, and entrepreneurs undertake investment with
the expectation of NPV & IRR. They accept projects that have positive
NPV and IRR higher than the cost of capital. They actively find and
structure positive NPV projects and then match financial products to
them.
The positive NPV project is ideally a perpetuity with the value of the
business being the perpetuity value:
Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate
Calculating NPV & IRR is the main analytical work of finance.
*Growth statistic CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is yearly IRR
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From Accounts to Models
To go from accounts (accounting) to a finance number we use
models. We only use Free Cash Flow to determine valuation for major
transactions in a capitalist economy including restructuring, growth,
M&A, and capital raising.
To go from account filings to models, we need to “clean the
numbers”, “scrub the financials”, “normalize the financials”. This
amounts to recasting accounts to get to a finance number. We try to
get to a finance number to get to a valuation. We get to a valuation
to then take actions in a capitalist economy.
*We want more add backs to get to a higher valuation
Modeling
After getting valuation, we can then model the different actions we
can take in a capitalist economy to increase the valuation of the
strategic, financial or entrepreneurial firm.
Modeling in Excel
Just like our account statements, our models are built and exist in
Excel
Analysis of Account Statements
Analysis of account statements (ratio of analysis) has various uses
including from a liquidity perspective, commercial bank perspective,
activity perspective, profitability perspective, and growth perspective.
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Ex. 4x-7x debt multiple for lending purposes
The following is the adjusted financials for Berkshire Hathaway:
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Part VII:
Modeling Value
Continuing deeper into the field of finance we now discuss the actual
work associated with understanding the value of a perpetuity. The
work is done by modeling the perpetuity in Excel.
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Chapter 8:
Finance with Excel
Finance with Excel
Express your decisions using Excel. Excel is the premier business
computational tool
Implement financial analysis using the tool for financial analysis, Excel
Valuation process
Heart of finance is time value of money and discounting
Excel Concepts Needed for Finance
Write down variables (defining the parameters of the decision)
Absolute or relative values copying (=A1) (=$A$1) and formulas
Functions (=fx( ))
Data tables (“sensitivity tables”)
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Express Decisions with Excel
Implement financial analysis with Excel
Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment
Decision
Ability to get financing from financial institutions depends on ability
to make a financial model for the new or existing business
The financial model projects future earnings from the organization
Predict the future performance of a firm.
Accounting statements report what happened to the firm in the past.
A financial model predicts what the firm’s accounting statements
will look like in the future. Start by taking the initial accounting
statements and inputting them into Excel
Difference between accounting and financial model is in the current
assets and current liabilities. In financial model we are concerned only
with operating assets and operating liabilities. We exclude financing
related
Financial model has three components:
Model parameters (value drivers)
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Financing decision assumptions (i.e. Mix between debt and equity,
what does firm do with excess cash? Repay debt, payments to
shareholders, or as cash balance)
Pro forma financial statements
Cash in the financial model is a plug. The plug is so that the balance
sheet balances.
Cash = total liabilities and equity – current assets – net fixed assets
The plug is the balance sheet item that guarantees the equality of the
future projected total assets and future projected total liabilities and
equity. Every financial model has a plug and the plug is almost always
cash, debt, or stock.
Financial Model and Valuation Process:
Assumptions (value drivers)
Existing accounting statements (IS and BS)
Projected financial statements
Free cash flow calculation (FCFs)
Terminal value calculation
Valuation calculation
Sensitivity table for major value drivers to see range of valuation
Once the financial model is complete (i.e. accounting statements
have been projected), we can use the model to:
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Value the firm by projecting free cash flows (FCFs)
Determine ability of firm to pay it’s debts (i.e. credit analysis)
Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing
Decision
All companies must decide how to finance their activities
Proportion of debt and equity
The discount rate should be appropriate to the riskiness (i.e.
variability or beta) of the cash flows being discounted.
Discount rate is also called interest rate, cost of capital, opportunity
cost.
Compute annualized IRR
The cost of capital of an investment is related to the risk of the cash
flows of the investment. The relationship of individual asset returns to
the risk is called the security market line (SML). You can use SML to
get the discount rate for individual investments. The SML is used for
private companies.
The cost of capital of an organization is related to the risk of the
combined riskiness of the investments in the portfolio. The
relationship of portfolio returns to the risk is called the capital asset
pricing model (CAPM). You use CAPM to get the discount rate (i.e.
cost of capital). When the investment is a public security, you use
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CAPM since the buyer of the security will have a portfolio to diversify
away risk.
Portfolio risk is associated with statistics.
Wealth Maximizing Decisions
Investment decision – What is it worth? NPV of strategic alternative
Financing decision – What does it cost? IRR of financing alternative
Cash is King
Wealth maximization has to do with maximizing cash. Cash in the
context or organizations is known as cash flow.
Return is a word for cash flows
Cash Flow Definition (FCF)
Profit after taxes
+ Depreciation (noncash expense)
+ Change in net working capital (- increase in current assets and +
increase in current liabilities)
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)
+ After-tax interest payments
= Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Role of the Finance Professional
The role of the financial professional is to quantify the cash flows and
risk of strategic alternatives available to the individual or
organization.
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Investment bankers compute the IRR and NPV of strategic
alternatives.
Capital Markets
The capital markets is made up of cash flows and discounts
Capital Markets and Information
Information is valuable in determining investment and financing
decisions in the capital markets. Overall, markets are weak form
efficient meaning that their valuations reflect previous stock price
performance (i.e. stock price data) and are sometimes semistrong
meaning that valuations incorporate all public information. Capital
markets are not strong form efficient meaning that valuations do not
reflect private information.
Multiple Investment and Financing Decisions: Portfolio
When there is multiple investment and financing decisions, we have
something called a portfolio. The discount rate can be decreased by
diversifying with a portfolio. When the discount rate is decreased, the
valuation of the portfolio increases as cash flows have maintained
more value.
A corporation/organization is simply a portfolio of sources and uses
Modeling a Strategic Alternative
Put all variables (“value drivers”) at the top of the spreadsheet
Never use a number where a formula will also work
Blue for hard codes
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Black for links and outputs
Finance: Exchanging Value Through Time
Assets have a time dimension
Future value function =FV( )
Value in the future of a sum of money compounded into the future
Present value =PV( )
Value today of future payments discounted to present
Net present value (NPV) =-First payment + NPV( )
Incremental wealth increase earned by a strategic alternative. NPV
tells you economic value of an investment today. Always use NPV in
the investment decision.
Internal rate of return (IRR) =IRR( )
Compound rate of return earned by a strategic alternative
VIII. Rate of Return vs. Cost of Capital
What is the asset’s IRR?
Compare to the cost of capital (Effective annual interest rate – which
is the annualized IRR used to compare financing alternatives aka
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR))
Cost of Capital
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Calculate IRR of financing alternatives to determine cost of capital
Need to get IRR in annual terms to facilitate comparison. May have to
start with monthly IRR then annualize
Annualized IRR = (1 + Monthly IRR)^n-1
Finding a Value in a Financial Model
When we want to find a value by setting a particular value to another
cell, we use:
Goal seek – Alt, A, G
Financing Alternatives: Loan Amortization
=PMT( )
To calculate the debt payment per period
=IPMT( )
To calculate the interest portion of the payment of debt
=PPMT( )
To calculate the principal portion of the payment
VIII. Financing Alternatives: Direct Comparison
IRR of differential cash flows tells you the cost of the option
IRR tells you the cost of the financing alternative
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CAGR is Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAIR) to allow for comparison
Analyzing the Strategic Alternative: Sensitivity Table
Data Table is Alt, A, W, T
Tells you how output changes with incremental changes in the inputs
(i.e. variables)
The Financing Alternative: Nominal vs. Real Cost
In determining the true cost of a financing alternative, it is important
to use the real rate of interest which incorporates inflation. The real
rate of interest is determined by using the real cash flows.
Inflation acts as a discount rate
Strategic Alternatives Analysis
For each strategic alternative, compute the NPV and IRR, then have
decision rules for investing including:
Minimum NPV
Hurdle rate (IRR)
You are using NPV and IRR to make investment decisions but you
need the discount rate. The discount rate is associated with the
financing decision
Cash Flows and Risk
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Are cash flows riskless (i.e. treasury bills) or are they risky (i.e. market
portfolio)
Cost of Capital and Opportunity Cost
The returns of similar investments should be used as the cost of
capital
The Discount Rate
An organization’s discount rate is the cost of equity and cost of
debt. The cost of the total capital structure is known as the Weighted
Average Cost of Capital (WACC):
WACC = rE* (E/(E+D)) + rD (1-Tc)*(D/(E+D))
Value of Equity
The value of equity is the present value of all future dividends
Sources & Uses
Uses Sources
Free Cash FlowsWACC
CAPM to get cost of equity
Accounting Statements: Statement of Cash Flows
The purpose of the statement of cash flow is to explain the increase
in the cash accounts on the balance sheet as a function of the firm’s
operating, investing, and financing activities.
Valuation Methods: Total Enterprise Value (TEV) vs. DCF
Market valuation:
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Total Enterprise Value (TEV) = MVE + MVD + Preferred – Cash
2. DCF Method (intrinsic value) = PV(FCFs) @ WACC + liquid assets
Accounting Value vs. Finance Value
Accounting value of firm is backward looking and thus incorrect to
use in valuation. Finance value is forward looking and consistent with
the fact that the owner of an organization or security has claims on
the future cash flows of the business.
FCF and DCF
Free cash flow (FCF) calculations is DCF
Portfolio Analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Discount rate is a measure of risk associated with:
Horizon
Safety
Liquidity
We get the discount rate by analyzing the distribution of an
investment’s returns. We get the standard deviation which is a
measure of variance in returns. Standard deviation is a component to
finding the discount rate:
=STDEVP( )
What does the frequency distribution look like?
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Determine risk measure known as beta and plug this into CAPM to
get the discount rate of equity. Derive the cost of debt and then
calculate WACC to get the discount rate of the firm.
Ex Ante vs. Ex Post Returns
Ex Ante is the expected return
Ex Post is the actual return
VIII. Statistics for Portfolios
=Average( )
To get mean return
=Varp( )
To get variance of returns
=Stdevp( )
To get standard deviation of returns
=Covar( )
To get covariance between two sets of returns
=Correl( )
To get correlation between two sets of returns
Trendline (regression) – click on points of XY graph and right click to
Add Trendline with linear regression and display equation and R-
squared on chart
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Portfolio Returns and The Efficient Frontier
Statistics are used to determine acceptable and unacceptable
portfolios
Diversification lowers standard deviation of the portfolio
Are the returns correlated? If no, then add security to the portfolio
(i.e. diversify)
The efficient frontier is the set of all portfolios that are on the
upward-sloping part of the graph starting with the minimum variance
portfolio (i.e. the market portfolio). Choose the portfolio that is on
the efficient frontier.
The Efficient Frontier and the Optimal Portfolio
The best investment portfolio is made up of the risk free asset and a
risky asset representing the market (i.e. the market portfolio)
Determine the market portfolio (the portfolio with the highest
attainable sharpe ratio)
Market portfolio is the best combination of risky assets available to
the investor
Security Market Line & CAPM
The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a
function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market).
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Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be
diversified
Security Market Line & Investment Performance
The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a
function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market).
Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be
diversified
Security Market Line & Investment Performance
The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a
function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market).
Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be
diversified
VIII. Security Market Line & Investment Performance Continued
Investment performance:
Risk adjusted performance; excess returns?
Risk Adjusted Performance
Market portfolio proxy is S&P 500
Beta is measure of riskiness of security
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Alpha measures excess return
Market portfolio proxy is S&P 500
Beta is measure of riskiness of security
Alpha measures excess return
It is about investment performance versus the risk involved in the
investment
CAPM & Investment Performance
Use CAPM to get the discount rate of equity and compare to cost of
financing alternatives
Is there risk adjusted overperformance or underperformance?
Is performance commensurate with risk?
Excess Return
Excess return is the investment’s spread over the one year treasury
(i.e. risk free rate)
Use regression equation to determine if underperformance (negative
alpha) or overperformance (positive alpha)
When regressing asset’s returns against the market portfolio, alpha
measures excess returns over the market portfolio
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Beta & R^2
High beta is an aggressive stock
Low beta is a defensive stock
R^2 is percentage of variability that is market related risk when
returns are regressed on the market portfolio
Diversification increases R^2 of the portfolio and decreases
nonsystematic risk
Alpha and Efficient Markets
In efficient markets, there is no alpha and investments earn their risk-
adjusted return
CAPM and the Cost of Capital
CAPM = rf + Beta [ E(rm) – rf]
In CAPM, use Beta of asset to calculate cost of equity
WACC is the discount rate based upon the capital structure of the
investment
Valuing Securities in Efficient Markets
Market efficiency and the role of information in determining asset
prices
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Publicly available information should be reflected in market price
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Chapter 9:
Financial Statement Modeling
Financial statement modeling refers to the creation of a standalone
operating model for a company. The operating model is built using
historical performance (i.e. historical financial statements). We use the
operating model to see pro forma performance of a company given
certain assumptions. These pro-formas are the basis for decision
making within the corporation.
Financial statement modeling best practices:
Blue is hard codes, black is formulas
Be consistent with millions and billions (keep conventions the same)
Footnote everything in presentation
Keep your model simple (1,000 cells is better than 10,000 cells)
Financial Modeling Steps:
1. Spread historical financial statements
a. 3 to 5 years history for IS, BS, and SCF
b. Public information for company 10K, 10Q
c. If private company, get audited financial statements provided by
company
2. Adjust for non-recurrings
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3. Build cases into the operating model
a. Best case
b. Base case
c. Worst case
d. Disruption case
4. Build assumptions based upon historical trends in assumptions tab
(margins and growth rates)
5. Project LIBOR and interest rates
a. Spread over LIBOR
b. LIBOR is the base that banks use to price spread their loans to make
money (called “L”)
c. 3 month LIBOR is the standard reference
6. Project IS and BS & two items on SCF (D&A and CAPEX (before gross
PPE on BS))
a. Maintenance CAPEX vs. Discretionary (growth) CAPEX
7. Separate debt and interest schedule (calculate debt and interest
schedule before calculating BS items for revolver, term loan, and
unsecured debt)
8. Project Working Capital
a. Days payable & Days receivable (360 day method)
9. Project rest of SCF (all items pulled from IS or BS)
a. AR goes up, need negative sign on SCF
b. AP goes up, need positive sign on SCF
c. BS cash is ending cash position on SCF
10. Calculate paydown/drawdown for revolver as minimum (Min
function) of CF before revolver and beginning revolver balance
11. Operating model is done when you finish SCF. Operating model
check (zero for Assets – (Liabilities + Owners Equity)
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NEXT STEP IS TO USE THE OPERATING MODEL FOR VARIOUS
ANALYSES INCLUDING ORGANIC GROWTH & INORGANIC GROWTH
(STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES). THE KEY QUESTION TO ASK IS: WHAT IS
THE BEST STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVE FOR THE CORPORATION (I.E.
HOW TO BE A GROWING PERPETUITY OR PARENT COMPANY OF
MULTIPLE GROWING PERPETUITIES)?
The following is a financial statement model for Berkshire Hathaway:
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BUILD-SIDE
Related to the intentional creation of perpetuities following a
methodology, we have what is known as the build-side. The build-
side is associated with the creation and management of perpetuities.
Participants on the build-side include startups, growing businesses,
and established corporations.
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Part I:
How to Build a
Perpetuity?
The process for building a perpetuity is the following:
1. Challenge/opportunity and case for value perpetuity & financial
perpetuity (total addressable market that exceeds hurdle)
2. Key question associated with challenge/opportunity
2. Methodology that answers key question
3. Platform architecture consistent with methodology
4. MVP (Minimum viable product) of platform
5. Value Perpetuity
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6. Financial Perpetuity
7. Growing Financial Perpetuity
8. Diversified Perpetuity
Perpetuity Science & The Perpetuity Scientist
Within Perpetuity Science, there are definite phases of the perpetuity
corresponding to levels of development of the perpetuity including:
1. Levels of customer concentration where:
a. high levels of customer concentration correspond with a lower
EBITDA multiple and low levels of customer concentration
correspond with a high EBITDA multiple
2. Levels of recurring revenue where:
a. high levels of recurring revenue correspond with a high EBITDA
multiple and low levels of recurring revenue correspond with a low
EBITDA multiple
3. Levels of owner dependence where:
a. a high level of owner dependence corresponds with a lower
EBITDA multiple and low levels of owner dependence correspond
with a high EBITDA multiple
The perpetuity scientist (CEO or consultant) is not only responsible
for growing the benefit stream (CF), but also these de-risking factors
that determine the discount rate (r). In doing so, the perpetuity
scientist builds a highly sought after perpetuity for both strategic and
financial buyers corresponding with a premium valuation.
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When providing coverage to a target perpetuity and originating an
engagement, the perpetuity scientist should follow these steps:
Stage of the Perpetuity:
1. Syndication:
(Getting to PMT)
Initial revenue generation
The key here is taking a concept that has a large enough total
addressable market and turning it into a single sale as represented by
PMT. This demonstrates product market fit between the minimum
viable product/platform and allows the owner to invest additional
time/energy/resources into turning the syndication into a perpetuity.
The syndication’s value to the owner will be related to the NPV/DCF
value, however, since there is an inefficient market for syndications,
the value is going to be discounted at a high rate, in the 80% to
100% range. The syndication is entirely reliant on the owner’s active
involvement. If the owner no longer works in the syndication, the
syndication will cease to operate.
The market here is inefficient.
2. Job Shop:
(From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc)
The initial efforts create a job shop
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The key here is taking a syndication that has demonstrated
product/market fit and turning it into a job shop with multiple
projects as represented by PMT1, PMT2, PMT3. This demonstrates
product market fit between the minimum viable product/platform
and allows the owner to invest additional time/energy/resources into
turning the syndication into a perpetuity. The job shop’s valuation is
based upon a multiple of its EBITDA and is usually in the range of 3x
to 5x. The job shop is not entirely reliant on the owner’s active
involvement and there is thus a larger, albeit still inefficient market
for the prospective perpetuity with likely buyers being individuals and
LMM strategic and financial buyers.
The owner’s primary responsibility is to first turn the company into a
project or job shop (PMT representing a given job). The company is
looked at solely as the sum of the value of its projects/jobs meaning
that the valuation of the company is backward looking.
3. Perpetuity:
(From PMTi to CF/r)
Transitioning from a job shop to a recurring revenue stream
The key here is taking a job shop with disparate projects (PMT1,
PMT2, PMT3) and turning it into a perpetuity with a predictable if not
recurring benefit stream. The perpetuity’s value is based on a larger
EBITDA multiple since there is a semi-strong efficient market for
perpetuities with likely buyers being middle market strategic and
financial buyers. The perpetuity is almost entirely not reliant on the
owner’s active involvement.
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From here, the owner is to turn the company into a perpetuity as
characterized by predictable, preferably recurring revenue. This can
be done by building an organizational structure with division of
labor, automated processes with technology, and a business model
that is recurring by nature. When this is accomplished, the valuation
becomes forward looking.
4. Growing Perpetuity:
(From CF/r to CF/r– g)
Going from recurring revenue stream to a growing perpetuity
The key here is taking a perpetuity with a durable benefit stream (CF)
and reasonable amount or variability in that benefit stream (r) and
turning it into a growing perpetuity with a corresponding growth rate
(g). The perpetuity’s value is based on an even larger EBITDA multiple
since there is a weak form efficient market for growing perpetuities
with likely buyers being middle market strategic and financial buyers
and some public strategic and financial buyers. The growing
perpetuity is almost entirely not reliant on the owner’s active
involvement.
This can be accomplished by building a scalable platform as part of
the core business. The valuation of the company now has to
incorporate a growth factor.
5. Diversified:
(Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2)
From one growing perpetuity to growing another perpetuity
organically or purchasing one to grow inorganically
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Finally, the owner is to diversify either organically (new product, new
business) or inorganically. If the diversification is organic, the new
product/business will naturally move through the phases of:
1. Syndication
2. Project/job shop
2. Perpetuity
3. Growing perpetuity
Since the valuation is forward looking, it has to incorporate the new
product/business’ financial performance. Since the parent company is
now becoming diversified, the discount rate will now decrease which
adds value to the parent company.
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Chapter 31:
How to Build a Benefit Stream?
The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the
stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e.
cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In
doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward
looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized
(based upon a multiple of future earnings).
Reasoning to Platform
The ultimate conclusion of reasoning applied to a
challenge/opportunity in nature is the building of a platform which in
turn can be turned into a perpetuity.
1. Opportunity/challenge in nature
2. Key question associated with challenge/opportunity
3. Develop methodology that answers the key question
4. Build platform around the methodology
5. Perpetuity
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Existing Platform to New Value Theme
A common way to begin on the build-side is to take an existing
platform and apply the concept to a new value theme. We will
discuss this in great detail in the cases portion of this text.
Platform vs. Mod
Platform is associated with network and is the core value, the
connecting of individuals in an integrated platform. Platform is
ultimately the basis for becoming a perpetuity.
Mod is associated with a specific functionality.
The Value of Technology & Science
Technology and science have value inasmuch as they are associated
with a perpetuity. Technology and science in isolation has no value.
The Consumption Process & Growth Hacking
It is important to have appropriate expectations regarding growth
and returns. One does not simply build an MVP and turn on users
with a switch. Brands are built one person at a time and consumption
follows a definite process which is the following:
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1. Awareness of methodology via being advocated to directly on a
social network or via email
2. Methodology adds value for individual (based in reason) and thus the
user decides to be a follower
3. Followership of brand adds value enough so that when the 'ask' is
made, the individual is willing to experiment with usage
4. Usage adds value enough so that the user becomes an active user
5. Active usage adds value enough so that individual is willing to
recommend others to become users
6. Active users willing to pay for usage
Since there is a definite process to consumption, one's growth
hacking methodology should be consistent with this fact. The Growth
Hacking Methodology means manually connecting with individuals
on various social networks including Instagram, Facebook, & Twitter
to first advocate the startup's methodology:
1. Develop thought leadership (methodology)
2. Advocate methodology and first contact
3. Acquire followership
4. Convert followership into users
5. Convert users into active users
The key here is to advocate the startup's methodology and then
show traction on the methodology which will be used to gain
followership from influencers and turn them into evangelists for the
methodology.
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Mechanisms like social proof can be helpful as they accelerate
willingness to participate in followership or experiment with usage,
but they are not a replacement for one by one advocacy of a
methodology. Social proof kicks in incrementally as the startup hits
an extra zero at the end of its followership and user numbers (ex.
100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000).
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Chapter 32:
How to De-Risk a Benefit
Stream?
The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the
stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e.
cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In
doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward
looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized
(based upon a multiple of future earnings).
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Chapter 33:
The Value Perpetuity
Commodity -> Finite Benefit Job -> Active Benefit Perpetuity ->
Passive Benefit Perpetuity
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Part VIII:
Perpetuity Analysis
On the build-side, we are ultimately concerned with the creation and
management of perpetuities. We first explore the perpetuity analysis,
perpetuity building process/timeline (including sources and uses) and
then move towards a methodology for perpetuity management.
The goal of Perpetuity Science is the building, growing, management,
exit and buying of perpetuities, so ultimately, while learning about
Perpetuity Science itself, we are also actively looking for:
1. Perpetuities to create
2. How to advance a perpetuity to the next phase
3. Perpetuities that should be exited from
4. Perpetuities that should be purchased
Perpetuity analysis is performed with an understanding that a
perpetuity’s ideal course of action at any given time is related to one
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of the three sides of the perpetuity (Build-side, Sell-side, Buy-side)
which depends on the phase that the perpetuity is in:
I. Industry and sub-industry indices made up of public comps
II. Benchmark comps into Perpetuity Phases
III. Build financial statement models for each
IV. Determine DCF, Comp Companies & Precedent Transactions
valuation football field
V. Compare peers in Perpetuity Phase to intrinsic value to
determine if this is a Buy-Side, Sell-Side or Build-Side deal (where are
peer multiples at in relation to intrinsic value?)
a. If Build-Side: What needs to be done to get to the next phase of
the perpetuity?
b. If Sell-Side: How to exit the perpetuity?
c. If Buy-Side: How to acquire a target perpetuity?
Perpetuity science explains how perpetuities can be built, managed
and exited from to create wealth. As such, it inherently has an owner
focus rather than simply a capital markets focus which is manifested
by the dual goals of decreasing the owner’s active involvement in the
day to day of the business and the maximizing of valuation.
Perpetuity Analysis can occur at three levels:
1. Vertical (Industry)
At the level of the industry, we can take the public comps as place
them on the Market for Perpetuities chart:
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For example, we can take a look at the Oil & Gas vertical and see
where the various players at:
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2. Sub-Vertical
At the level of the industry, we can take the public comps as place
them on the Market for Perpetuities chart:
For example, we can take a look at the Oil & Gas machine
manufacturing sub-vertical and see where the various players at:
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3. Corporation
As discussed, a corporation is merely a portfolio of perpetuities. As
such, we can map the corporation in terms of its perpetuities and see
the stage of each individual perpetuity:
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An example of Perpetuity Analysis at the corporate level would be
Berkshire Hathaway, which we have mapped below:
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Perpetuity science is where entrepreneurship, strategy & finance
come together. It a field of study complete with a body of
knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models towards
improving the individual's quality of life by the building of a
perpetuity that accomplishes two dual goals:
1. ever decreasing involvement of the perpetuity owner in the
perpetuity
2. ever increasing valuation of the perpetuity
Perpetuity science is ultimately about maximizing quality of life rather
than just wealth by building perpetuities with recurring revenue
streams that are not reliant on the daily participation of the owner of
the perpetuity. We can take a look in a visual format of what we are
trying to accomplish:
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As you will notice, the owner’s direct involvement in the perpetuity
decreases as the perpetuity moves through the phases of
development. Also, valuation increases as the perpetuity moves
through the phases of development for three reasons; EBITDA
increase, EBITDA multiple expansion, decrease in discount rate.
The key question is: How to build a perpetuity that minimizes the
daily involvement of the owner and at the same time maximizes it’s
valuation.
Though applicable to all industries, the focus industries of perpetuity
science are thus those that do not require significant capital outlays
which could otherwise be used to invest in a diversified portfolio.
These industries include:
1. Technology
2. Media
3. Education
4. Business Services
As you will notice, these industries have to do with knowledge
working and benefit from information arbitrage and/or network
arbitrage. While it is possible to structure arbitrage in other industries
by preselling various products and services, knowledge working
industries offer genuine information/network arbitrage as well as
allowing for recurring revenue business models rather than being
one time commodity or project-based. You will also notice that
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margins are much larger in knowledge working industries which
translates into larger EBITDA multiples. Thus, the owner of the
perpetuity is rewarded multiple times more for the value that their
perpetuity creates than they would for commodity or project-based
syndications.
Given that the human has a limited amount of time on earth and
limited resources within which to invest (energy, capital), one should
invest their time in knowledge working industries and build
perpetuities there first. Only after a perpetuity has been built in a
knowledge working industry should the owner explore other non-
knowledge related industries.
One should thoroughly understand these industries overall and their
sub-sectors when syndicating a new perpetuity. We will go into these
industries in detail after explaining the perpetuity building process,
the perpetuity management process, and perpetuity exit process.
The science of the perpetuity can be broken down into three
sequential categories including:
I. Perpetuity Analysis
II. Perpetuity Building
III. Perpetuity Management
Perpetuity Exit
Market Analysis
GDP
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Industry Spend
Sub sector spending
Sub sector spending by product
Value Chain Analysis
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General
Industry
Sub-sector
Sub-sector by product
Gap Analysis
General
Industry
Sub-sector
Sub-sector by product
Product/Platform Analysis
Base
Mods
Perpetuity Science: A methodology that synthesizes industry and the
capital markets in relation to the perpetuity. The science of building,
selling and buying perpetuities.
I. Nature of the Perpetuity
II. Phases of the Perpetuity
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III. Sides of the Perpetuity
IV. Perpetuity Analysis:
Industry and sub-industry indices
Determining where leaders are at in Perpetuity Phases
Build financial statement models for each
Compare Perpetuity Phase to intrinsic value
Determine if this is a Buy Side, Sell Side or Build Side deal (where are
multiples at in relation to intrinsic value?)
What needs to be done to get to the next phase of the perpetuity?
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Chapter 10:
How to Be a CEO?
The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the
stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e.
cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In
doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward
looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized
(based upon a multiple of future earnings).
The CEO should thus be familiar with perpetuity science and the
phases of the perpetuity.
As the perpetuity changes, the formula for valuing the perpetuity
changes as well. There are five phases of perpetuity building. As we
move through the phases, the role of the owner of the perpetuity
becomes more passive and the valuation becomes larger due to size
of EBITDA increasing, EBITDA multiple increasing, and the discount
rate decreasing. The perpetuity becomes less dependent on the
owner to exist and run as an organizational structure is formed
coinciding with the division of labor, processes are automated, and
revenue becomes recurring.
Phases of the Perpetuity:
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I. Syndication (Getting to PMT)
II. Job Shop (From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc)
III. Perpetuity (From PMTi to CF/r)
IV. Growing Perpetuity (From CF/r to CF/r– g)
V. Diversified (Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2)
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Chapter 10:
How to Be a Consultant?
The consultant’s role is to aid in the building, selling, or buying of a
perpetuity. Since the consultant’s value is in relation to the
perpetuity, the consultant’s core methodology/body of knowledge
is Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is the set of methodologies
related to building, selling, and buying of perpetuities which is
referred to as the build-side, sell-side, and buy-side respectively. The
key questions related to each side of the perpetuity are:
The consultant uses methodologies related to each one of these key
questions which serve as the basis for a consulting engagement:
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1. Build-Side: How to move a company/opportunity to the next stage of
the perpetuity building process? The methodology for the phases of
a perpetuity is the following:
2. Sell-Side: How to obtain a valuation higher than the NPV of the
perpetuity? The methodology for doing so is to get a buyer to price
in the next phase of the perpetuity into the current valuation (ex. if
the perpetuity is at the perpetuity phase, get the buyer to pay for a
growing perpetuity)
3. Buy-Side: How to locate and take ownership of a perpetuity that is
being valued at less than its NPV? The methodology for doing so is
to get the seller to accept a price for the previous phase of the
perpetuity (ex. if the perpetuity is at the growing perpetuity phase,
get the seller to sell for at a perpetuity valuation)
What Should You Learn in Business School?
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Since the perpetuity is the basis for both industry and the capital
markets it follows that business school thus focus on educating
individuals on:
1. The Nature of the Perpetuity
2. The Phases of the Perpetuity
3. The Different Sides of the Perpetuity
The standard MBA curriculum at most business schools is broken
down along siloed subjects such as accounting, finance,
management, operations, and marketing and attempts to teach
students how to be a mid-level manager at a large corporation for
the rest of their lives. Unfortunately, these jobs are mostly gone,
having been shipped overseas or automated. This MBA curriculum is
thus outdated and not appropriate for the 21st century when most
individuals will have multiple jobs and roles throughout their careers
and lives.
The more appropriate field of study which has yet to make it to
business schools is known as Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is
the body of knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models
related to the building, selling, and buying of perpetuities. It explains
how perpetuities can be built, managed and exited from to create
wealth. Perpetuity science is a paradigm shift in business and finance
education in that it replaces the siloed subjects traditionally taught in
undergraduate and graduate business schools with a holistic
methodology that integrates industry and the capital markets into
one framework.
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Instead of a disparate business taxonomy along the lines of
economics, finance, accounting, marketing, etc., we have an initial
taxonomy broken down in relation to the perpetuity, namely:
Build-side – the building of perpetuities (entrepreneurs, corporations)
Sell-side – the selling of perpetuities (investment bankers, wall street)
Buy-side – the buying of perpetuities (private equity, corporate M&A)
Within each of the three, we have various methodologies and
optimization models that may touch on various subjects such as
accounting, finance, economics. By starting with perpetuity science,
the student can better synthesize the various moving parts of
industry and the capital markets.
1. The Nature of the Perpetuity: When first learning about industry and
the capital markets, one should first understand the nature of the
perpetuity, which is the basis for industry & the capital markets. The
perpetuity can be modeled with the following formula:
Perpetuity value = CF / r
Where CF represents the benefit stream associated with the
perpetuity and r represents the discount rate associated with the
perpetuity’s risk of receiving the benefit stream.
2. The Phases of the Perpetuity: After understanding the nature of the
perpetuity in general, we can then analyze the perpetuity within each
industry. The nature of the CF, r, value chain, and value being offered
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will be different. We investigate each industry according to these
variables by building an index for each industry and then sub-sectors
within the industry:
3. The Different Sides of the Perpetuity:
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Chapter 48:
How to Be an Engineer?
Engineer Methodology:
1. Identify challenges/opportunities in nature
2. Form key question
3. Develop methodology to answer key question
4. Build platform consistent with methodology
5. Turn platform into perpetuity
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Part IX:
Perpetuity
Management
On the build-side, we are ultimately concerned with the creation and
management of perpetuities. We first explore the perpetuity analysis,
perpetuity building process/timeline (including sources and uses) and
then move towards a methodology for perpetuity management.
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Chapter 15:
Perpetuity Management
The Purpose of the Company
Companies exist to create value
How Companies Create Value
Companies create value by investing capital at rates of return that
exceed their cost of capital. This is the principle of value creation.
The only thing that differs across companies is the implementation
(i.e. different asset and capitalization mix)
Strategy & Finance
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Valuation Drivers
The Role of the CEO
Perpetuity Management
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Valuation
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Perpetuity Management with Discounted Cash Flows
Growth or Restructuring
Perpetuity Management Process
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Measuring Value Added: ROIC vs. Market Return
Measure return on invested capital (after-tax operating profits
divided by capital invested in working capital, PP&E) and compare it
with stock market returns
Measuring Value Added: Economic Profit & NPV
Economic profit = ROIC spread % over cost of capital x invested
capital
The objective is to maximize economic profit. When the company is
larger, one should use Net Present Value (NPV) which calculates
economic profit in a more robust and flexible fashion.
Valuation in the Public Markets
Valuation in the public markets has investors paying for the
performance they expect the company to achieve in the future;
investors ultimately end up paying more since their valuations are
not based upon the past or cost of the assets.
The CEO should endeavor to have his company in the public markets
since the largest multiples are applied in valuation
Real Markets & Financial Markets
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When a public company, the CEO has to both maximize the intrinsic
(DCF) value of the company and manage the expectations of the
financial market
Differences between actual performance and market expectations
and changes in these expectations drive share prices. The delivery of
surprises produces higher or lower total shareholder returns
Perpetuity Planning & Control (i.e. Management)
Planning & control system should be put in place to monitor the NPV
of every business unit and summed to get the NPV of the
corporation. Economic profit (i.e. NPV) targets set annually for next
three years, progress monitored monthly and managers’
compensation tied to economic profit against these targets
Value Metrics
Metrics are to drive decisions and guide all employees toward value
creation.
Perpetuity Planning & Control (i.e. Management) in Practice
Corporate management sets long-term value creation targets in
terms of market value of a company or total returns to shareholders
(TRS)
Strategic alternatives valued in DCF (i.e. NPV)
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Intrinsic value of chosen strategic alternative translated into short
and medium term financial targets and then targets for operating
and strategic value drivers
Performance assessed by comparing results with targets on both
financial indicators and key value drivers. Managerial rewards linked
to performance on financial measures and key value drivers
Value Metrics: Market Value Added & Total Return to
Shareholders
Market Value Added is the difference between the market value of a
company’s debt and equity and the amount of capital invested.
Measures financial market’s view of future performance relative to
capital invested in business.
Total Return to Shareholders measure performance against the
expectations of financial markets and changes in these expectations.
TRS measures how well a company betas the target set by market
expectations
Value Metrics: DCF vs. Earnings Multiple
DCF is intrinsic value. Earnings multiples are market values.
Earnings alone is inadequate without understanding the investment
required to generate the earnings. Should know ROIC
Cash Flow
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Cash flow equals the operating profits of the company less the net
investment in working capital and fixed assets to support the
company’s growth.
Perpetuity Management Capability
1. Analyze where perpetuity is currently at (which phase)
2. Determine which phase is the goal
3. Determine steps to get to next phase of the perpetuity
4. Build Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to get to next phase working
backward from the next phase
5. Execute the plan
Perpetuity Lifecycle:
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Chapter 16:
Valuation Methodologies
1. Public Company Valuation
2. Comp Companies – Also known as trading comps. Management
team gives you 1 to 2 years projections or equity research comp
reports to get forward multiples (x Revenue or x EBITDA ) which may
be used as the basis for this valuation. You can get comps from the
general overview as it will discuss the target’s comps in the 10K. Find
comps with good multiples to then tell your story to the marketplace
to then get a certain valuation.
a. Select the universe of comparable companies – Choose 7, 8, 10
comps, need their 10K, 10Q, analyst reports to get TEV for each comp
then divide by line item to get multiple.
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b. Locate financial information on comp companies – Information must
come from latest filing (10K or 10Q). Print out 10K, 10Q, analyst
reports.
c. Spread key financial information, ratios and multiples – Calculate TEV
(in comp spread tab). To get MVE, use TSM method. TSM =
Exercisable options outstanding x (share price – strike) / share price.
d. Benchmark comp companies – Get the multiple that the company is
trading at for each metric for each comp and get mean and median
of comps for the metrics (ex. TEV/EBITDA)
e. Determine implied valuation – Multiply mean and median multiple x
the revenue or EBITDA to get the valuation range for your target
company.
Notes:
The better the company, the higher the multiple and the better
valuation you get.
In IB/PE/CorpFin, you need to know comp companies and transaction
comps. “Here are the comps in your sector…”
Higher multiple because…
Operating in better markets, better operations
The multiple tells you which company is better, margin analysis tells
you why they are better.
Sell side key question:
“Which comp would you use to guide potential buyers?”
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3. Precedent Transactions – comp transactions
a. Select universe of comp transactions
b. Locate deal-related and financial information – Need press release of
the deal, 8K, 10K, and 10Q. Type of payment: cash, stock, cash &
stock.
c. Spread financial information, ratios and multiples – Get transaction
TEV (implied) & transaction MVE (implied)
d. Benchmark precedent transactions
e. Determine implied valuation
Notes:
20% to 25% control premium paid with the transaction multiple
being an implied one based upon the valuation.
Determine whether the market is good or bad based upon whether
people are paying good premiums (control premiums).
When a transaction occurs, update client on the latest transaction to
show them impact on the control premiums being paid and implied
multiple as well.
Point to the transaction comps that have the highest control
premium.
4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
a. Spread historical financial statements (input historicals) and derive
historical ratios, trends and variables (drivers of future performance;
margins and growth rates). Project financial statements (proforma).
Revolver modeling to link IS, BS, and SCF
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b. Project free cash flow (FCF)
c. Determine Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) – Discount rate
Cost of equity:
Rf = 10 year treasury
Market risk premium = Rm – Rf. Refer to Ibbotson. Ultimately this is
S&P returns over 70, 80, or 90 years
Beta = Levered beta of comps to unlevered median and mean of
comps (unlevered beta); should be .5 to 2.5; 2 year to 5 year betas
(taking out capital structure and relever to actual capital structure.
With beta, we are putting capital structure on unlevered beta mean
and median of comps to calculate WACC of own company.
Cost of debt: weighted average of tranches of debt tax effected;
found in 10K. Rates from the notes. If private company, get from
clients the tranches and to get rates, go to DCM to get
approximation.
Cost of equity 20% to 25% in private markets. No use of debt is an
inefficient use of capital. Trying to optimize the D/E ratio to minimize
cost of financing.
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d. Determine terminal value – EBITDA multiple which is going to be
almost 80% of the company value. Terminal value = LTM multiple
from comps x EBITDA. Perpetuity growth rate should be 2.5% to 3%
and should not be larger than the size of the GDP of the country
e. Calculate net present value (NPV) and determine implied valuation
Notes:
Need the valuation date; this determines stub year fraction (i.e.
period left in the year). Stub year fraction – investor does not have
claim on revenues before that. DCF value always moving through
time consistent with valuation date.
IB interviews test you on DCF. Everything else that you know is a
bonus.
Do DCF to find yield to decide whether or not to invest principal.
Creating value:
$ dollars of value increased by…
Changing multiple on valuation
Decreasing the discount rate
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Chapter 17:
Framing Valuation
We are not looking at each valuation methodology in isolation but
are ultimately using the methodologies together to frame the
valuation in a valuation summary format. We use a “football field”
(valuation summary) to frame the valuation which looks like the
following:
Regarding the football field, we add control premiums to comp
companies and DCF (% addition that is equal to the control premium
average for the transaction comps) if doing valuation for selling the
company.
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Footnote everything (assumptions) in the football field. The football
field takes one day to a few days depending on how easy it is to
obtain the precedent transactions data.
Banker should know what valuation the client expects to be at; 10%
to 15% spread of range of valuation (“tighten” the range if needed by
eliminating comps that skew the range)
For each valuation methodology we are going to do a sensitivity
analysis to determine a valuation range:
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Chapter 18:
The Market for Perpetuities
The market for the perpetuity at its initial stages is inefficient, but as
it moves through the stages of a perpetuity, the market becomes
more efficient. You can observe the coinciding cost of capital move
from almost 100% going all the way down to 3.5%.
You can observe the EBITDA multiple for the perpetuity increasing as
the perpetuity moves through the phases of the perpetuity.
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SELL-SIDE
As perpetuities continue to grow, the builder of the perpetuity seeks
to grow the perpetuity inorganically or exit the perpetuity. This is the
primary role of the sell-side, which is to aid in the buying and selling
of perpetuities. Investment bankers now enter the picture as this is
their core work.
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Part X:
How to Sell a Perpetuity?
On the sell side, the primary responsibility of the investment banker
is to aid those owning perpetuities in analyzing their strategic
alternatives related to inorganic growth or exit.
Which phase is the perpetuity in? (SMB, LMM, MM, UMM, L)
Which buyers are likely interested in the perpetuity? (Individual,
Financial, Strategic, Special Situation)
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Each of these buyers have a different valuation range
Individual – Desire 30% to 40% IRR, 3x EBITDA
Financial – 4x to 7x EBITDA
Strategic – 5x to 10x EBITDA
Valuation is a range
Determine valuation method (DCF, comp companies, precedent
transactions)
Calculate benefit stream (synergistic vs. owner benefit)
Determine required rate of return given the phase of the perpetuity
and the buyer (discount rate)
Convert benefit stream into present value at the discount rate
Sensitize the variables for a range of values to see effect on valuation
(sensitivity table)
Strategics and financials establish their filter criteria (hurdle IRRs for
financial and minimum EPS increase for strategics) and test targets
against this filter
Strategics have a range of values with standalone value as the lower
end and valuation with all synergies on the higher end. A deal
happens usually in the middle
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Chapter 19:
Investment Banking
Since M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) is the core product of
investment banking, discussions around investment banking typically
relate to M&A. M&A is the selling of a perpetuity in the form of a
corporation to either a financial or strategic buyer. Financial and
strategic buyers have what is known as investment/corporate M&A
mandates which detail the size and industry of prospective targets for
acquisition. The investment banker takes these mandates and
matches them with targets and takes a fee for doing so. Investment
bankers typically focus on one industry and provide what is known as
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coverage by building an index of public companies and tracking
changes in targets relative to the index in terms of:
Revenue
EBITDA
Multiples
The investment banker monitors trends in these variables and
determines the optimal time to sell (when multiples are strong) or
acquire (when multiples are weak) and advises target management
accordingly. When a target agrees to sell via an investment banker,
this relationship is known as a sell-side mandate and an M&A
process will be led by the investment banker. During the M&A
process, there are definite steps and deliverables including a teaser,
CIM, and management presentation. The M&A process can include
many prospective buyers (broad auction) or few prospective buyers
(targeted or negotiated sale).
The investment banking core product is M&A. As such, the
investment banker’s role is to aid in the growth of perpetuities via an
inorganic strategy (merger, acquisition).
The real work of M&A is origination, matching and deal-structuring.
Financial modeling and valuation is merely for decision support and
deals often get done simply based upon precedent transactions
analysis. Thus, the priority of the investment bankers is to obtain a
base level understanding of financial modeling & valuation but then
to immediately start originating sell side and buy side mandates.
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Investment bankers explore strategic alternatives (value creation
opportunities) with corporation’s CEO’s/owners.
Notes:
Valuation Football Field and the Midpoint is the final valuation of the
company.
Calculate NPV and IRR to the sponsor in LBO or EPS Change and
Balance Sheet Effects in Merger
Compare NPV and IRR OR compare EPS change and BS effects to
other strategic alternatives and choose the highest return/EPS
alternative
Ultimately, as an investment banker, you are to:
Use valuation methodologies to determine valuation ranges of each
strategic alternative and see if capital sources match uses. IBankers
should provide the client with tight ranges on valuation.
Use an operating model of the target (and acquirer if strategic) and
then tailor it to the specific client:
Financial (LBO)
Strategic (Merger)
Determine:
NPV and IRR for financial in LBO
EPS change and balance sheet effects for strategic in merger M&A
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Run the M&A process
Traditional Investment Bank Responsibilities:
Junior Banker:
Industry coverage
Comps and comp transactions (where are multiples)
Valuation
Mid Banker:
Operating model creation + tailored to transaction client (LBO or
Merger)
Manage M&A process
Senior Banker:
Revenue center
Personal contacts at firms to win engagements
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Chapter 20:
How to Become an Investment
Banker Methodology
The following is the How to Become an Investment Banker
Methodology:
1. Coverage
a) Index building
b) Vertical report
c) Vertical newsletter
2. Target screen & origination
3. Mandate/target matching
4. Deal structuring
5. Buyer/seller meeting logistics
6. Adjusted EBITDA calculation
7. Valuation
8. Offer analysis
9. Purchase agreement drafting/structuring
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10. Due diligence data room
11. Closing & flow of funds
Decide on the industry/industries that you will cover, read/research
the value themes/players/multiples in the industry on the following
levels:
1. Large cap
2. Mid cap
3. Small cap
4. Middle market
5. Lower middle market
Pick an initial vertical and sub-vertical to cover. With AltQuest Group,
our initial coverage groups were the following:
1. Manufacturing
2. Software
3. Business Services
4. Healthcare
After choosing your coverage, the investment banker is then to build
an index for each of the verticals and sub-verticals made up with the
public comps. The AltQuest Group coverage is broken down in the
following manner:
1. Manufacturing
a. Durable consumer
b. Non-durable consumer
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c. Aerospace & defense
d. Building products
e. Industrial
f. Medical
2. Software
a. Traditional software
b. SAAS
c. Internet
3. Business Services
a. Education & Training
b. Business Process Outsourcing
c. Facility Services and Industrial Services
d. Human Resources
e. Information Services
f. Marketing Services
g. Real Estate Services
h. IT Services
i. Specialty Consulting
4. Healthcare
a. Dental Product
b. Dental Providers
c. Medical Devices & Products
d. Medical Product Distribution
e. Specialty Providers
f. Pharma Services
g. Practice Management
h. Provider Services
i. Long Term & Behavioral Care
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
155
The investment banker then spreads each public comp and the
financial data feeds into the median and average for the vertical and
sub-vertical which ultimately ends up in the research (industry report,
newsletter), pitchbooks, and CIMs of the investment bank. For
investment banks with an equity research department, financial
statement models will be built for each public comp that is being
covered and consensus EPS data taken from research reports will be
used to establish the value of the public comp.
The investment banker ultimately uses the vertical index and sub-
vertical index to perform proprietary research and develop industry
reports and newsletters which will aid in coverage and ultimately
origination. The research, which we will go into greater detail on later
in the book focuses on vertical and sub-vertical trends in margins,
multiples, and M&A.
After establishing one's coverage and then building an index for the
vertical and sub-vertical as well as establishing relationships with
strategic and financial buyers within the vertical and sub-vertical, the
investment banker may begin advising targets on their strategic
alternatives using information gleaned from the vertical and sub-
vertical indices. Regarding the vertical index and sub-vertical index,
the investment banker ultimately tracks trends in:
Growth rates
Margins
Debt to Equity
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
156
Multiples
The investment banker takes the index and establishes tiers which
turn into peer groups. This is why we pull public comps; to
benchmark a target against the comps. By comparing a target's level
of performance to it's peers and the industry in general the
investment banker can determine when it is ideal to exit the business
(when multiples are strong) and when it is not (when multiples are
weak). This is how investment bankers advise on strategic
alternatives.
Getting Started in Investment Banking
For those just getting started in investment banking, it is preferable
to start with the lower middle market and middle market building
relationships with financial and strategic buyers as well as potential
targets. This means building your rolodex. Obtain the investment
mandates from the strategic and financial buyers and establish a fee
arrangement for buy-side deals. This will end up being the Lehman
scale for the fee on the buy-side. This is how I built the boutique
investment bank, AltQuest Group (www.AltQuest.com).
For example, with AltQuest Group, I chose to cover manufacturing. If
you are starting in the lower middle market, the goal is to get 10 sell
side engagements at any given time. It took me one year to get 10
sell side engagements working 40 hours per week and not on
weekends. Further, it is going to take you 6 months to one year to
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
157
close a deal so stay proactive with origination and mandate/target
matching.
To give you an idea of the level of productivity that you should
target, the following are the investment banking statistics from year
one with AltQuest Group:
3,000 introduction emails
30 sell side pitches (phone and in person)
10 sell side engagements won
4 IOIs from strategic/financial buyers
As you get better and establish a process, your email conversion
rates will go up and you will be pitching more and your ability to win
sell side engagements will go up. I am at the point now that if a seller
is interested in selling, I will either win the sell side mandate or I will
structure it as a buy side deal and receive the fee from the
strategic/financial buyer.
Looking forward to year two, here are the projections:
1,000 introduction emails
50 sell side pitches (phone and in person)
20 (+18 existing = 38 total engagements) sell side engagements won
8 IOIs from strategic/financial buyers
2 closed M&A deals
$110,000 in M&A fees received
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
158
The statistics assume that you will be working full time at 40 hours
per week and not working on the weekends.
Regarding fees, here is a simplified understanding of fee structure for
sell side engagements. The key to remember here is that you do not
make your money when you quote your fee, you make your money
when you close the deal. The point is that I would rather win an
engagement and give up 1% to 2% of the fee than have the seller
think that I am not being fair. The Lehman scale simplifies this a bit
but often times the seller will want to know the exact % that they will
be paying you.
Large cap – Lehman scale
Mid cap – Lehman scale
Small cap – Lehman scale
Middle market – Double Lehman structure
Lower middle market – 3% to 10%
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
159
FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE
160
Part XI:
The Middle Market
The majority of perpetuities are in what is known as the middle
market, a classification for mid-sized perpetuities. This is where the
majority of the transactions occur and where the average investment
banker will make his living.
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FameLinked Book

  • 1. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 1
  • 2. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 2 Michael Herlache MBA Doctor of Business Administration Candidate VP, M&A at AltQuest Group Svitlana Herlache Analyst, M&A at AltQuest Group FameLinked The Fame Network & Marketplace
  • 3. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 3 For my wife, Svitlana, whom is my treasure.
  • 4. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 4 About the Author: Michael Herlache is the VP of M&A at AltQuest Group, a middle market boutique investment bank located in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He lives in his home in Florida with his wife, Svitlana. Michael has an MBA in Finance from Texas A&M University and is getting his Doctorate in Business Administration with a focus on finance. To learn more about AltQuest Group, please go to www.AltQuest.com. For those interested in going through a formal perpetuity training program associated with this text, the Unicon University (www.VCFounders.com) course’s syllabus is based upon the content of this book.
  • 5. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 5 Contents PERPETUITY: Chapter 1: How to Build a Perpetuity Methodology Chapter 2: FameLinked Chapter 3: Traction Methodology PERPETUITY SCIENCE: Part I: Perpetuity Methodology Chapter 1: What is Business? Chapter 2: What is a Perpetuity? Chapter 3: What Education Teaches vs. What Education Should Teach FOUNDATIONS OF VALUATION: Part I: Tracking Value (Accounting) Chapter 3: Tracking Value with Accounts Part II: Analyzing Value (Finance) Chapter 4: Analyzing Value with Finance Part III: Modeling Value Chapter 5: Finance with Excel Chapter 6: Financial Statement Modeling BUILD-SIDE: Part I: How to Build a Perpetuity? Chapter 49: How to Build a Benefit Stream? Chapter 50: How to De-Risk the Benefit Stream? Chapter 51: The Value Perpetuity Part II: Perpetuity Analysis Chapter 52: How to Be a CEO?
  • 6. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 6 Chapter 53: How to Be a Consultant? Part III: Perpetuity Modeling & Valuation Chapter 58: Valuation Methodologies Chapter 59: Framing Valuation Part IV: Perpetuity Engineering Chapter 54: How to Be an Engineer? Chapter 54: Knowledge Engineering Chapter 55: Content Engineering Chapter 56: Platform Engineering Part V: Perpetuity Management Chapter 57: Perpetuity Management Chapter 61: Index Building & Benchmarking Chapter 62: Financial Data Sources Part VI: The Market for Perpetuities Chapter 60: The Market for Perpetuities SELL-SIDE: Part I: How to Sell a Perpetuity? Chapter 18: Investment Banking Chapter 19: How to Become an Investment Banker Methodology Part II: The Middle Market Chapter 20: Middle Market Breakdown Part III: M&A Multiples Chapter 21: M&A Multiples Part IV: Investment Banking Coverage Methodology Chapter 22: Investment Banking Coverage Methodology Chapter 23: Index Building & Benchmarking Chapter 24: Financial Data Sources Chapter 25: Industry or Sector Newsletter Chapter 26: Industry or Sector Report Chapter 27: Rolodex Building Part V: M&A Origination Methodology
  • 7. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 7 Chapter 28: M&A Origination Methodology Part VI: Mandate/Target Matching Methodology Chapter 29: Mandate/Target Matching Methodology Part VII: Deal Structuring Chapter 30: Deal Structuring Part VIII: M&A Process Chapter 32: M&A Process Part IX: Investment Bank Management Chapter 33: How to Build a Boutique Investment Bank? Chapter 34: Running the Boutique Investment Bank Part X: Deliverables & Coverage Chapter 35: Investment Banking Deliverables Chapter 36: Adjusted EBITDA Chapter 37: Valuation Chapter 38: Teaser Chapter 39: CIM (Confidential Information Memorandum) BUY-SIDE: Part I: How to Buy a Perpetuity? Chapter 40: The Principle of Investing Chapter 41: How to Be a Warren Buffett? Chapter 42: The Operating Model Chapter 43: The Financial Buyer aka Private Equity (LBO) Chapter 44: The Strategic Buyer aka Corporation (Merger) Chapter 45: Perpetuity Science & Portfolio Theory Chapter 46: How to Start a LMM Search Fund? CASES: Part XVIII: Cases Chapter 47: Cases
  • 8. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 8 Preface We have all heard about the buy side and the sell side of finance, but who is actually building the perpetuities. What if there was a third side of finance? What if there was a build-side, with individuals possessing IB/PE and platform development talents to use in the building of perpetuities? Shouldn't that be the logical course of events with individuals taking their knowledge of valuation and industries and putting them to use in building the next unicorns? So what would this look like? IB/PE professionals joining startup labs such as the one I run called Founders Ventures (www.VCFounders.com) to work on concepts that have a legitimate chance of being a unicorn. Rather than leaving one's job to join a questionable startup, join a startup lab and be directly involved in the build-side, even if it part-time. The work of the build-side is syndication. Shouldn't we all be working towards getting on the build-side?
  • 9. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 9 Perpetuity The primary output in a capitalist economy is the perpetuity. The inputs include industry as the uses and the capital markets as the sources of capital. The perpetuity is an asset with a benefit stream that extends into the future continuously.
  • 10. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 10 Chapter 1: How to Build a Perpetuity Methodology At Founders Ventures, we are often asked, “How to build a perpetuity?” so we decided to take our approach and build an official methodology around the process. How to Build a Perpetuity Methodology: 1. The Case for a Perpetuity 2. MVP 3. Value Perpetuity 4. Financial Perpetuity 5. Growing Financial Perpetuity 6. Diversified Perpetuity
  • 11. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 11 Chapter 2: FameLinked FameLinked Challenge & Opportunity: The average person spends 1.4 hours per day on social networks and social media. Up until now, social networks and social media have been a tool of expression and connecting. FameLinked believes that the networks built and activity within these networks are assets that can be brought online and monetized. This untapped network reach makes for corporate sponsorship opportunities for all sized businesses for those with high activity levels in large networks. By ranking individuals with a proprietary FameRank algorithm based upon their activity and network size/quality, businesses can find brand advocates and award them with corporate sponsorships or micro-ads that are disseminated throughout their network on a one-time or periodic basis. By allowing users to monetize their social presence, FameLinked has created a network and marketplace for fame. Key Question: How to Monetize Social?
  • 12. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 12 FameLinked Methodology: Provide a ranked social network where activity within the platform allows you to earn Fame Points which are the basis of your FameRank within the network. The most active users receive the highest FameRank and receive paid corporate sponsorships in the Fame Marketplace.
  • 13. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 13
  • 14. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 14
  • 15. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 15
  • 16. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 16 In terms of the methodology that is used by FameLinked, we have the FameLinked Methodology as described in the book, FameLinked: The Fame Network & Marketplace:
  • 17. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 17 In terms of messaging on social networks to drive followership, we utilized branded photos to generate brand awareness:
  • 18. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 18 In terms of building the perpetuity we are building a following first based upon our methodology on various social platforms including Facebook, Twitter and Instagram:
  • 19. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 19 In terms of converting followership into usership, the following are the conversion metrics after we started requesting that our followers become users:
  • 20. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 20
  • 21. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 21
  • 22. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 22
  • 23. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 23
  • 24. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 24 Chapter 3: Traction Methodology Traction Methodology: I. Facebook + Instagram + Twitter: “Follow followers’ followers”: Follow back at 20% II. Deliverables & Snapshots of Progress (Methodology & Followership) a. Deliverables: i. Animated video commercial ii. Book iii. Perpetuity presentation iv. Demo video with founders v. Infographic vi. Thumbnail and bar vii. Png selfies of founders with logo/icon III. Post snapshots of followership on one platform on the other platforms (social proofing) IV. Personal message to try platform: “Yes” at 6% follower to user V. Valuation at $1 to $10 per user Example: Follow 1,000,000 X 20% follow back = 200,000 followers X 6% follower to user conversion = 12,000 users @ ~$5 per user = $60,000 valuation of platform
  • 25. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 25 Perpetuity Science The standard MBA curriculum at most business schools is broken down along siloed subjects such as accounting, finance, management, operations, and marketing and attempts to teach students how to be a mid-level manager at a large corporation for the rest of their lives. Unfortunately, these jobs are mostly gone, having been shipped overseas or automated. This MBA curriculum is thus outdated and not appropriate for the 21st century when most individuals will have multiple jobs and roles throughout their careers and lives. The more appropriate field of study which has yet to make it to business schools is known as Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is the body of knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models
  • 26. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 26 related to the building, selling, and buying of perpetuities. It explains how perpetuities can be built, managed and exited from to create wealth. Perpetuity science is a paradigm shift in business and finance education in that it replaces the siloed subjects traditionally taught in undergraduate and graduate business schools with a holistic methodology that integrates industry and the capital markets into one framework. Instead of a disparate business taxonomy along the lines of economics, finance, accounting, marketing, etc., we have an initial taxonomy broken down in relation to the perpetuity, namely: Build-side – the building of perpetuities (entrepreneurs, corporations) Sell-side – the selling of perpetuities (investment bankers, wall street) Buy-side – the buying of perpetuities (private equity, corporate M&A) Within each of the three, we have various methodologies and optimization models that may touch on various subjects such as accounting, finance, economics. By starting with perpetuity science however, the student can better synthesize the various moving parts of industry and the capital markets. When first learning about industry and the capital markets, one should first understand the nature of the perpetuity, which is the basis for industry & the capital markets. The perpetuity can be modeled with the following formula:
  • 27. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 27 Perpetuity value = CF / r Where CF represents the benefit stream associated with the perpetuity and r represents the discount rate associated with the perpetuity’s risk of receiving the benefit stream. After understanding the nature of the perpetuity in general, we can then analyze the nature of the perpetuity within each industry. The nature of the CF, r, value chain, and value being offered will be different. We investigate each industry according to these variables by building an index for each industry and then sub-sector within the industry.
  • 28. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 28 After building the index and sub-sector indices we can then begin analyzing the value chain and leaders in each part of the value chain. We then build financial statement models for the leaders in each section of the value chain and understand the drivers of performance. We analyze each leader or target in relation to the phases of perpetuity in terms of where they are now and the next steps that they can take to move to the next phase. In doing so, one begins to think in terms of being a CEO. The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e. cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized (based upon a multiple of future earnings). The CEO should thus be familiar with Perpetuity Science and the phases of the perpetuity. As the perpetuity changes, the formula for valuing the perpetuity changes as well. There are five phases of perpetuity building. As we move through the phases, the role of the owner of the perpetuity becomes more passive and the valuation becomes larger due to size of EBITDA increasing, EBITDA multiple increasing, and the discount rate decreasing. The perpetuity becomes less dependent on the owner to exist and run as an organizational structure is formed coinciding with the division of labor, processes are automated, and revenue becomes recurring.
  • 29. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 29 Phases of the Perpetuity: I. Syndication (Getting to PMT) II. Job Shop (From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc) III. Perpetuity (From PMTi to CF/r) IV. Growing Perpetuity (From CF/r to CF/r– g) V. Diversified (Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2) The goal of Perpetuity Science is the building, growing, management, exit and buying of perpetuities, so ultimately, while learning about Perpetuity Science itself, we are also actively looking for: 1. Perpetuities to create 2. How to advance a perpetuity to the next phase 3. Perpetuities that should be exited from 4. Perpetuities that should be purchased
  • 30. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 30 Ultimately, Perpetuity Science transforms the individual from a one- dimensional functional worker into a multi-dimensional value-creator able to execute on either of the three sides of the perpetuity; build side, sell side, or buy side. The Perpetuity Scientist vs. The Functional Specialist The Perpetuity Scientist builds assets that generate passive benefits whereas the functional specialist uses labor to generate active benefits. The quality of life of the perpetuity scientist is thus higher than the functional specialist. It is the perpetuity scientist that drives the primary value with functional specialists simply serving a role in the process of building or operating a perpetuity. The Perpetuity Scientist has the three capabilities associated with the key question of each side of the perpetuity:
  • 31. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 31 Build-Side: Key Question: How to Build a Perpetuity? Capability: The capability to build a perpetuity Sell-Side: Key Question: How to Sell a Perpetuity? Capability: The capability to sell a perpetuity Buy-Side: Key Question: How to Buy a Perpetuity? Capability: The capability to buy a perpetuity
  • 32. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 32 Capabilities that each business student should have are associated with the 3 key questions of Perpetuity Science: Perpetuity Science: I. Build side: How to build a perpetuity? II. Sell side: How to sell a perpetuity? III. Buy side: How to buy a perpetuity? The key questions are associated with capabilities to be built learning perpetuity science.
  • 33. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 33 From this methodology, Investment Banking University has built a body of knowledge which turned into the course, How to Become an
  • 34. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 34 Investment Banker. The book, Investment Banking, is meant to accompany the course which can be taken online, in the weekend workshop, or in the month-long training. When asking the key question, “How to Become an Investment Banker?”, we are really asking four questions simultaneously: 1. How to use finance to model the concept in a perpetuity format? 2. How to physically build the perpetuity? 3. How to sell/exit the perpetuity? 4. How to buy a perpetuity? For each question, Investment Banking University has developed proprietary methodologies which are the basis for building a capability which is the ultimate answer to the question.
  • 35. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 35 When the individual implements these models and builds the capabilities in finance, the build side, the sell side and the buy side, one may claim to have become an investment banker.
  • 36. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 36 Part I: Perpetuity Methodology Consistent with Perpetuity Science, the Perpetuity Methodology is broken down between the three aspects of the perpetuity and also has the foundations of valuation to tie it all together:
  • 37. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 37 Chapter 1: What is Business? When thinking about business we have to acknowledge the sources and uses associated with a corporation where sources represent the capital markets and uses represents the asset mix of the corporation. Business can be thought of as a process where the output is a benefit stream with a given level of variability. This benefit stream with a given level of variability is known as a perpetuity. Thus, the model for business is the perpetuity.
  • 38. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 38 Since we know that a perpetuity is the model for business (the integration of industry and the capital markets), we can then build a body of knowledge around the perpetuity which serves as the basis for the science of the perpetuity (Perpetuity Science): The body of knowledge known as Perpetuity Science can be broken down in the following manner:
  • 39. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 39 The rest of this text goes into detail regarding the taxonomy of Perpetuity Science and investigates each component.
  • 40. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 40
  • 41. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 41 Chapter 2: What is a Perpetuity? Nature does not provide for man, so he must use reason to obtain value. Since his task is both survival and pleasure, man must use philosophy and science to determine what is valuable and then to build something to obtain said value. That which he builds should not require the same work continually to operate; this is the basis for the perpetuity. A perpetuity is an asset that generates a benefit stream continuously into the future. Perpetuity is the basis for intrinsic value.
  • 42. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 42 All of mans progress is towards the creation of assets that add value on behalf of the human on a continuous basis into the future without the human having to replicate previous work to receive benefits. This phenomena is referred to as the perpetuity. This speaks to the advancement from the active benefit stream towards the passive benefit stream (perpetuity). The perpetuity is both a philosophical and scientific phenomena which embodies mans progress in both philosophy and science. Perpetuity can thus be broken down into:
  • 43. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 43 1. Perpetuity Philosophy 2. Perpetuity Science For the purposes of this book, we will be focusing on Perpetuity Science. Standard of Living: Perpetuities The Goal To increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of life. How to Get the Goal In order to increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of life, one is to build, sell or buy perpetuities. Perpetuity Perpetuities increase standard of living without sacrificing quality of life by possessing recurring revenue and automated work processes to achieve the revenue. I. Building Perpetuities The building of perpetuities is known as being on the build-side; commonly referred to as entrepreneurship or corporations. II. Buying Perpetuities The buying of perpetuities is known as investment or being on the buy-side. The players here are Private Equity (PE) or Corporate M&A Departments for major corporations.
  • 44. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 44 III. Selling Perpetuities The selling of perpetuities is known as the sell-side. The players here are investment bankers (Wall Street). The Lab of Perpetuities The experimentation and optimization tool of finance is known as Excel. Excel Is the scientific computational tool of finance to aid us in the modeling and valuation of perpetuities. Demand for Perpetuities There is always demand for perpetuities and especially by institutional investors which means that the market for corporate control more closely mirrors the DCF (intrinsic value) of the perpetuity (corporation). Institutional investors can pay higher multiples in order to realize returns over longer periods of time. Types of Perpetuities Perpetuities can be created from companies that possess some aspect of recurring revenue and automated work processes associated with product creation. At a high level, types of perpetuities include: I. Commodity a. Durables b. Non-durables
  • 45. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 45 II. Platform a. Digital b. Physical III. Content a. Educational b. Entertainment IV. Service a. Analysis b. Allocation c. Engineering d. Logistics e. Management f. Advocacy g. Relationship V. Infrastructure a. Private i. Real estate b. Public From the types of perpetuities, when applied to the main value themes of human existence we arrive at industries associated with the perpetuities (according to Aswath Damodaran at NYU):
  • 46. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 46 When looking at the different industries in which perpetuities are located, it becomes helpful to understand the nature of the perpetuities including risk (as represented by the discount rate in the perpetuity formula), return, growth, margins, multiples, and cash flow:
  • 47. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 47 Risk (discount rate) on the following page: Return: Growth:
  • 48. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 48 Margins (Cash flow): Multiples:
  • 49. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 49 Business: The Science of the Perpetuity Introduction to Business Business is the science of the perpetuity Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate As you can see we can increase value by increasing CF (increasing revenues, decreasing COGS, SG&A) or decreasing the discount rate. The Corporation’s Goal 1. Become a perpetuity - as characterized by recurring revenue as automated work processes. 2. Become a growing perpetuity Value of growing perpetuity = CF / r – g g decreases the discount rate One should make the distinction between a perpetuity and a commodity. A commodity is associated with a single benefit (cash flow) or a finite benefit stream, whereas the benefit stream of a perpetuity is continuous into the future. What is Intrinsic Value?
  • 50. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 50 Something is intrinsically valuable inasmuch as it is a perpetuity. Perpetuity provides certainty that the benefit stream will be recurring in the future and is thus, the basis for intrinsic value. Perpetuities allow us to improve our standard of living while not sacrificing quality of life by continually dealing with a problem/opportunity in nature and yielding passive benefits. How to Become Wealthy? The secret that the wealthy know and the middle class is unaware of is the perpetuity. A perpetuity is an asset that generates a benefit stream continuously into the future. This yields passive benefits rather than active benefits of which the middle class works for. The wealthy know Perpetuity Science which is the science of building, selling & buying perpetuities. There are three sides to the perpetuity: 1. Build-Side - How to Build a Perpetuity? (entrepreneurs, corporations) a. How to Build a Benefit Stream? i. Case for Value Perpetuity and Financial Perpetuity ii. MVP iii. Value Perpetuity iv. Financial Perpetuity v. Growing Financial Perpetuity vi. Diversified b. How to De-Risk the Benefit Stream? i. Customer Concentration ii. Owner Dependence
  • 51. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 51 iii. Recurring Revenue 2. Sell-Side - How to Sell a Perpetuity? (investment bankers, wall street) 3. Buy-Side - How to Buy a Perpetuity? (private equity, corporate M&A) Ultimately, the wealthy teach their children how to be 21st century perpetuity scientists rather than 20th century functional specialists that will remain in the middle class. In terms of order, the process is usually: 1. Begin on the build-side building a perpetuity which will take 3 to 5 years (initiate coverage and syndicate within a vertical & sub-vertical) 2. Enter the sell-side and begin in investment banking after university/business school (within existing investment bank or start own boutique investment bank) 3. From the sell-side, take advantage of strong opportunities and leverage this into a LMM search fund
  • 52. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 52 FOUNDATIONS OF VALUATION In order to understand the role and work of the investment banker, we need to first have a strong understanding of the foundations of valuation. This helps us to understand why it is that the investment banking industry exists and where investment bankers fit into the bigger picture.
  • 53. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 53 Part II: Tracking Value (Accounting) As a perpetuity is built, it becomes necessary to track the financial existence of the perpetuity through time. Accounting is the set of concepts, methodologies, and models that allows us to do exactly that.
  • 54. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 54 Chapter 6: Tracking Value with Accounts Value The formula for value is: Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate Accounts and Accounting In order to track valuation performance of the perpetuity (i..e business), companies create accounts for each item of it’s financial existence. These accounts are the basis of valuation. Valuation is the basis of actions taken in a capitalist economy. Accounts, Accounting & Excel Excel is the software used to model the accounts of the enterprise and determine the valuation of the perpetuity (i.e. business). Account Filings & Public Data 10-K annual 10-Q quarterly Account Statements: P&L
  • 55. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 55 Income statement (P&L): Revenues COGS Gross Profit Operating Expenses EBIT Interest Cost EBT Taxes Earnings Account Statements: Balance Sheet Assets = Liabilities + Shareholder’s Equity Total Assets = Total Liabilities + Shareholder’s Equity Current Assets + Long Term Assets = Current Liabilities + Long Term Liabilities + Value of Shares Previously Issued + Retained Earnings – Treasury Stock Account Statements: Statement of Cash Flows CF from Operating CF from Investing CF from Financing Statement of Cash Flows is the linkage between the income statement and the balance sheet. Get D&A from SCF (CF from Operations) and CAPEX from SCF (CF from Investing)
  • 56. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 56 The following is a 10-K from Berkshire Hathaway: The following is a 10-Q from Berkshire Hathaway: The following is the IS from Berkshire Hathaway: The following is the BS from Berkshire Hathaway: The following is the SCF from Berkshire Hathaway:
  • 57. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 57 Part VI: Analyzing Value with Models (Finance) As the economic existence of the perpetuity continues to grow, one becomes interested in the value of the perpetuity. Enter finance, whose concepts, methodologies, and models allow us to understand the valuation of the perpetuity.
  • 58. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 58 Chapter 7: Analyzing Value with Models Analyzing Value Strategics, financials, and entrepreneurs undertake investment with the expectation of NPV & IRR. They accept projects that have positive NPV and IRR higher than the cost of capital. They actively find and structure positive NPV projects and then match financial products to them. The positive NPV project is ideally a perpetuity with the value of the business being the perpetuity value: Perpetuity value = CF / Discount rate Calculating NPV & IRR is the main analytical work of finance. *Growth statistic CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is yearly IRR
  • 59. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 59 From Accounts to Models To go from accounts (accounting) to a finance number we use models. We only use Free Cash Flow to determine valuation for major transactions in a capitalist economy including restructuring, growth, M&A, and capital raising. To go from account filings to models, we need to “clean the numbers”, “scrub the financials”, “normalize the financials”. This amounts to recasting accounts to get to a finance number. We try to get to a finance number to get to a valuation. We get to a valuation to then take actions in a capitalist economy. *We want more add backs to get to a higher valuation Modeling After getting valuation, we can then model the different actions we can take in a capitalist economy to increase the valuation of the strategic, financial or entrepreneurial firm. Modeling in Excel Just like our account statements, our models are built and exist in Excel Analysis of Account Statements Analysis of account statements (ratio of analysis) has various uses including from a liquidity perspective, commercial bank perspective, activity perspective, profitability perspective, and growth perspective.
  • 60. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 60 Ex. 4x-7x debt multiple for lending purposes The following is the adjusted financials for Berkshire Hathaway:
  • 61. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 61 Part VII: Modeling Value Continuing deeper into the field of finance we now discuss the actual work associated with understanding the value of a perpetuity. The work is done by modeling the perpetuity in Excel.
  • 62. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 62 Chapter 8: Finance with Excel Finance with Excel Express your decisions using Excel. Excel is the premier business computational tool Implement financial analysis using the tool for financial analysis, Excel Valuation process Heart of finance is time value of money and discounting Excel Concepts Needed for Finance Write down variables (defining the parameters of the decision) Absolute or relative values copying (=A1) (=$A$1) and formulas Functions (=fx( )) Data tables (“sensitivity tables”)
  • 63. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 63 Express Decisions with Excel Implement financial analysis with Excel Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Investment Decision Ability to get financing from financial institutions depends on ability to make a financial model for the new or existing business The financial model projects future earnings from the organization Predict the future performance of a firm. Accounting statements report what happened to the firm in the past. A financial model predicts what the firm’s accounting statements will look like in the future. Start by taking the initial accounting statements and inputting them into Excel Difference between accounting and financial model is in the current assets and current liabilities. In financial model we are concerned only with operating assets and operating liabilities. We exclude financing related Financial model has three components: Model parameters (value drivers)
  • 64. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 64 Financing decision assumptions (i.e. Mix between debt and equity, what does firm do with excess cash? Repay debt, payments to shareholders, or as cash balance) Pro forma financial statements Cash in the financial model is a plug. The plug is so that the balance sheet balances. Cash = total liabilities and equity – current assets – net fixed assets The plug is the balance sheet item that guarantees the equality of the future projected total assets and future projected total liabilities and equity. Every financial model has a plug and the plug is almost always cash, debt, or stock. Financial Model and Valuation Process: Assumptions (value drivers) Existing accounting statements (IS and BS) Projected financial statements Free cash flow calculation (FCFs) Terminal value calculation Valuation calculation Sensitivity table for major value drivers to see range of valuation Once the financial model is complete (i.e. accounting statements have been projected), we can use the model to:
  • 65. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 65 Value the firm by projecting free cash flows (FCFs) Determine ability of firm to pay it’s debts (i.e. credit analysis) Using a Financial Model for Decision Making: The Financing Decision All companies must decide how to finance their activities Proportion of debt and equity The discount rate should be appropriate to the riskiness (i.e. variability or beta) of the cash flows being discounted. Discount rate is also called interest rate, cost of capital, opportunity cost. Compute annualized IRR The cost of capital of an investment is related to the risk of the cash flows of the investment. The relationship of individual asset returns to the risk is called the security market line (SML). You can use SML to get the discount rate for individual investments. The SML is used for private companies. The cost of capital of an organization is related to the risk of the combined riskiness of the investments in the portfolio. The relationship of portfolio returns to the risk is called the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). You use CAPM to get the discount rate (i.e. cost of capital). When the investment is a public security, you use
  • 66. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 66 CAPM since the buyer of the security will have a portfolio to diversify away risk. Portfolio risk is associated with statistics. Wealth Maximizing Decisions Investment decision – What is it worth? NPV of strategic alternative Financing decision – What does it cost? IRR of financing alternative Cash is King Wealth maximization has to do with maximizing cash. Cash in the context or organizations is known as cash flow. Return is a word for cash flows Cash Flow Definition (FCF) Profit after taxes + Depreciation (noncash expense) + Change in net working capital (- increase in current assets and + increase in current liabilities) Capital expenditures (CAPEX) + After-tax interest payments = Free Cash Flow (FCF) Role of the Finance Professional The role of the financial professional is to quantify the cash flows and risk of strategic alternatives available to the individual or organization.
  • 67. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 67 Investment bankers compute the IRR and NPV of strategic alternatives. Capital Markets The capital markets is made up of cash flows and discounts Capital Markets and Information Information is valuable in determining investment and financing decisions in the capital markets. Overall, markets are weak form efficient meaning that their valuations reflect previous stock price performance (i.e. stock price data) and are sometimes semistrong meaning that valuations incorporate all public information. Capital markets are not strong form efficient meaning that valuations do not reflect private information. Multiple Investment and Financing Decisions: Portfolio When there is multiple investment and financing decisions, we have something called a portfolio. The discount rate can be decreased by diversifying with a portfolio. When the discount rate is decreased, the valuation of the portfolio increases as cash flows have maintained more value. A corporation/organization is simply a portfolio of sources and uses Modeling a Strategic Alternative Put all variables (“value drivers”) at the top of the spreadsheet Never use a number where a formula will also work Blue for hard codes
  • 68. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 68 Black for links and outputs Finance: Exchanging Value Through Time Assets have a time dimension Future value function =FV( ) Value in the future of a sum of money compounded into the future Present value =PV( ) Value today of future payments discounted to present Net present value (NPV) =-First payment + NPV( ) Incremental wealth increase earned by a strategic alternative. NPV tells you economic value of an investment today. Always use NPV in the investment decision. Internal rate of return (IRR) =IRR( ) Compound rate of return earned by a strategic alternative VIII. Rate of Return vs. Cost of Capital What is the asset’s IRR? Compare to the cost of capital (Effective annual interest rate – which is the annualized IRR used to compare financing alternatives aka Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)) Cost of Capital
  • 69. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 69 Calculate IRR of financing alternatives to determine cost of capital Need to get IRR in annual terms to facilitate comparison. May have to start with monthly IRR then annualize Annualized IRR = (1 + Monthly IRR)^n-1 Finding a Value in a Financial Model When we want to find a value by setting a particular value to another cell, we use: Goal seek – Alt, A, G Financing Alternatives: Loan Amortization =PMT( ) To calculate the debt payment per period =IPMT( ) To calculate the interest portion of the payment of debt =PPMT( ) To calculate the principal portion of the payment VIII. Financing Alternatives: Direct Comparison IRR of differential cash flows tells you the cost of the option IRR tells you the cost of the financing alternative
  • 70. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 70 CAGR is Effective Annual Interest Rate (EAIR) to allow for comparison Analyzing the Strategic Alternative: Sensitivity Table Data Table is Alt, A, W, T Tells you how output changes with incremental changes in the inputs (i.e. variables) The Financing Alternative: Nominal vs. Real Cost In determining the true cost of a financing alternative, it is important to use the real rate of interest which incorporates inflation. The real rate of interest is determined by using the real cash flows. Inflation acts as a discount rate Strategic Alternatives Analysis For each strategic alternative, compute the NPV and IRR, then have decision rules for investing including: Minimum NPV Hurdle rate (IRR) You are using NPV and IRR to make investment decisions but you need the discount rate. The discount rate is associated with the financing decision Cash Flows and Risk
  • 71. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 71 Are cash flows riskless (i.e. treasury bills) or are they risky (i.e. market portfolio) Cost of Capital and Opportunity Cost The returns of similar investments should be used as the cost of capital The Discount Rate An organization’s discount rate is the cost of equity and cost of debt. The cost of the total capital structure is known as the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): WACC = rE* (E/(E+D)) + rD (1-Tc)*(D/(E+D)) Value of Equity The value of equity is the present value of all future dividends Sources & Uses Uses Sources Free Cash FlowsWACC CAPM to get cost of equity Accounting Statements: Statement of Cash Flows The purpose of the statement of cash flow is to explain the increase in the cash accounts on the balance sheet as a function of the firm’s operating, investing, and financing activities. Valuation Methods: Total Enterprise Value (TEV) vs. DCF Market valuation:
  • 72. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 72 Total Enterprise Value (TEV) = MVE + MVD + Preferred – Cash 2. DCF Method (intrinsic value) = PV(FCFs) @ WACC + liquid assets Accounting Value vs. Finance Value Accounting value of firm is backward looking and thus incorrect to use in valuation. Finance value is forward looking and consistent with the fact that the owner of an organization or security has claims on the future cash flows of the business. FCF and DCF Free cash flow (FCF) calculations is DCF Portfolio Analysis and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Discount rate is a measure of risk associated with: Horizon Safety Liquidity We get the discount rate by analyzing the distribution of an investment’s returns. We get the standard deviation which is a measure of variance in returns. Standard deviation is a component to finding the discount rate: =STDEVP( ) What does the frequency distribution look like?
  • 73. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 73 Determine risk measure known as beta and plug this into CAPM to get the discount rate of equity. Derive the cost of debt and then calculate WACC to get the discount rate of the firm. Ex Ante vs. Ex Post Returns Ex Ante is the expected return Ex Post is the actual return VIII. Statistics for Portfolios =Average( ) To get mean return =Varp( ) To get variance of returns =Stdevp( ) To get standard deviation of returns =Covar( ) To get covariance between two sets of returns =Correl( ) To get correlation between two sets of returns Trendline (regression) – click on points of XY graph and right click to Add Trendline with linear regression and display equation and R- squared on chart
  • 74. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 74 Portfolio Returns and The Efficient Frontier Statistics are used to determine acceptable and unacceptable portfolios Diversification lowers standard deviation of the portfolio Are the returns correlated? If no, then add security to the portfolio (i.e. diversify) The efficient frontier is the set of all portfolios that are on the upward-sloping part of the graph starting with the minimum variance portfolio (i.e. the market portfolio). Choose the portfolio that is on the efficient frontier. The Efficient Frontier and the Optimal Portfolio The best investment portfolio is made up of the risk free asset and a risky asset representing the market (i.e. the market portfolio) Determine the market portfolio (the portfolio with the highest attainable sharpe ratio) Market portfolio is the best combination of risky assets available to the investor Security Market Line & CAPM The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market).
  • 75. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 75 Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be diversified Security Market Line & Investment Performance The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market). Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be diversified Security Market Line & Investment Performance The security market line says that the expected return of an asset is a function of the asset’s beta (i.e. sensitivity to the market). Only relevant risk is systematic risk since the investors will all be diversified VIII. Security Market Line & Investment Performance Continued Investment performance: Risk adjusted performance; excess returns? Risk Adjusted Performance Market portfolio proxy is S&P 500 Beta is measure of riskiness of security
  • 76. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 76 Alpha measures excess return Market portfolio proxy is S&P 500 Beta is measure of riskiness of security Alpha measures excess return It is about investment performance versus the risk involved in the investment CAPM & Investment Performance Use CAPM to get the discount rate of equity and compare to cost of financing alternatives Is there risk adjusted overperformance or underperformance? Is performance commensurate with risk? Excess Return Excess return is the investment’s spread over the one year treasury (i.e. risk free rate) Use regression equation to determine if underperformance (negative alpha) or overperformance (positive alpha) When regressing asset’s returns against the market portfolio, alpha measures excess returns over the market portfolio
  • 77. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 77 Beta & R^2 High beta is an aggressive stock Low beta is a defensive stock R^2 is percentage of variability that is market related risk when returns are regressed on the market portfolio Diversification increases R^2 of the portfolio and decreases nonsystematic risk Alpha and Efficient Markets In efficient markets, there is no alpha and investments earn their risk- adjusted return CAPM and the Cost of Capital CAPM = rf + Beta [ E(rm) – rf] In CAPM, use Beta of asset to calculate cost of equity WACC is the discount rate based upon the capital structure of the investment Valuing Securities in Efficient Markets Market efficiency and the role of information in determining asset prices
  • 78. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 78 Publicly available information should be reflected in market price
  • 79. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 79 Chapter 9: Financial Statement Modeling Financial statement modeling refers to the creation of a standalone operating model for a company. The operating model is built using historical performance (i.e. historical financial statements). We use the operating model to see pro forma performance of a company given certain assumptions. These pro-formas are the basis for decision making within the corporation. Financial statement modeling best practices: Blue is hard codes, black is formulas Be consistent with millions and billions (keep conventions the same) Footnote everything in presentation Keep your model simple (1,000 cells is better than 10,000 cells) Financial Modeling Steps: 1. Spread historical financial statements a. 3 to 5 years history for IS, BS, and SCF b. Public information for company 10K, 10Q c. If private company, get audited financial statements provided by company 2. Adjust for non-recurrings
  • 80. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 80 3. Build cases into the operating model a. Best case b. Base case c. Worst case d. Disruption case 4. Build assumptions based upon historical trends in assumptions tab (margins and growth rates) 5. Project LIBOR and interest rates a. Spread over LIBOR b. LIBOR is the base that banks use to price spread their loans to make money (called “L”) c. 3 month LIBOR is the standard reference 6. Project IS and BS & two items on SCF (D&A and CAPEX (before gross PPE on BS)) a. Maintenance CAPEX vs. Discretionary (growth) CAPEX 7. Separate debt and interest schedule (calculate debt and interest schedule before calculating BS items for revolver, term loan, and unsecured debt) 8. Project Working Capital a. Days payable & Days receivable (360 day method) 9. Project rest of SCF (all items pulled from IS or BS) a. AR goes up, need negative sign on SCF b. AP goes up, need positive sign on SCF c. BS cash is ending cash position on SCF 10. Calculate paydown/drawdown for revolver as minimum (Min function) of CF before revolver and beginning revolver balance 11. Operating model is done when you finish SCF. Operating model check (zero for Assets – (Liabilities + Owners Equity)
  • 81. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 81 NEXT STEP IS TO USE THE OPERATING MODEL FOR VARIOUS ANALYSES INCLUDING ORGANIC GROWTH & INORGANIC GROWTH (STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES). THE KEY QUESTION TO ASK IS: WHAT IS THE BEST STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVE FOR THE CORPORATION (I.E. HOW TO BE A GROWING PERPETUITY OR PARENT COMPANY OF MULTIPLE GROWING PERPETUITIES)? The following is a financial statement model for Berkshire Hathaway:
  • 82. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 82 BUILD-SIDE Related to the intentional creation of perpetuities following a methodology, we have what is known as the build-side. The build- side is associated with the creation and management of perpetuities. Participants on the build-side include startups, growing businesses, and established corporations.
  • 83. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 83 Part I: How to Build a Perpetuity? The process for building a perpetuity is the following: 1. Challenge/opportunity and case for value perpetuity & financial perpetuity (total addressable market that exceeds hurdle) 2. Key question associated with challenge/opportunity 2. Methodology that answers key question 3. Platform architecture consistent with methodology 4. MVP (Minimum viable product) of platform 5. Value Perpetuity
  • 84. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 84 6. Financial Perpetuity 7. Growing Financial Perpetuity 8. Diversified Perpetuity Perpetuity Science & The Perpetuity Scientist Within Perpetuity Science, there are definite phases of the perpetuity corresponding to levels of development of the perpetuity including: 1. Levels of customer concentration where: a. high levels of customer concentration correspond with a lower EBITDA multiple and low levels of customer concentration correspond with a high EBITDA multiple 2. Levels of recurring revenue where: a. high levels of recurring revenue correspond with a high EBITDA multiple and low levels of recurring revenue correspond with a low EBITDA multiple 3. Levels of owner dependence where: a. a high level of owner dependence corresponds with a lower EBITDA multiple and low levels of owner dependence correspond with a high EBITDA multiple The perpetuity scientist (CEO or consultant) is not only responsible for growing the benefit stream (CF), but also these de-risking factors that determine the discount rate (r). In doing so, the perpetuity scientist builds a highly sought after perpetuity for both strategic and financial buyers corresponding with a premium valuation.
  • 85. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 85 When providing coverage to a target perpetuity and originating an engagement, the perpetuity scientist should follow these steps: Stage of the Perpetuity: 1. Syndication: (Getting to PMT) Initial revenue generation The key here is taking a concept that has a large enough total addressable market and turning it into a single sale as represented by PMT. This demonstrates product market fit between the minimum viable product/platform and allows the owner to invest additional time/energy/resources into turning the syndication into a perpetuity. The syndication’s value to the owner will be related to the NPV/DCF value, however, since there is an inefficient market for syndications, the value is going to be discounted at a high rate, in the 80% to 100% range. The syndication is entirely reliant on the owner’s active involvement. If the owner no longer works in the syndication, the syndication will cease to operate. The market here is inefficient. 2. Job Shop: (From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc) The initial efforts create a job shop
  • 86. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 86 The key here is taking a syndication that has demonstrated product/market fit and turning it into a job shop with multiple projects as represented by PMT1, PMT2, PMT3. This demonstrates product market fit between the minimum viable product/platform and allows the owner to invest additional time/energy/resources into turning the syndication into a perpetuity. The job shop’s valuation is based upon a multiple of its EBITDA and is usually in the range of 3x to 5x. The job shop is not entirely reliant on the owner’s active involvement and there is thus a larger, albeit still inefficient market for the prospective perpetuity with likely buyers being individuals and LMM strategic and financial buyers. The owner’s primary responsibility is to first turn the company into a project or job shop (PMT representing a given job). The company is looked at solely as the sum of the value of its projects/jobs meaning that the valuation of the company is backward looking. 3. Perpetuity: (From PMTi to CF/r) Transitioning from a job shop to a recurring revenue stream The key here is taking a job shop with disparate projects (PMT1, PMT2, PMT3) and turning it into a perpetuity with a predictable if not recurring benefit stream. The perpetuity’s value is based on a larger EBITDA multiple since there is a semi-strong efficient market for perpetuities with likely buyers being middle market strategic and financial buyers. The perpetuity is almost entirely not reliant on the owner’s active involvement.
  • 87. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 87 From here, the owner is to turn the company into a perpetuity as characterized by predictable, preferably recurring revenue. This can be done by building an organizational structure with division of labor, automated processes with technology, and a business model that is recurring by nature. When this is accomplished, the valuation becomes forward looking. 4. Growing Perpetuity: (From CF/r to CF/r– g) Going from recurring revenue stream to a growing perpetuity The key here is taking a perpetuity with a durable benefit stream (CF) and reasonable amount or variability in that benefit stream (r) and turning it into a growing perpetuity with a corresponding growth rate (g). The perpetuity’s value is based on an even larger EBITDA multiple since there is a weak form efficient market for growing perpetuities with likely buyers being middle market strategic and financial buyers and some public strategic and financial buyers. The growing perpetuity is almost entirely not reliant on the owner’s active involvement. This can be accomplished by building a scalable platform as part of the core business. The valuation of the company now has to incorporate a growth factor. 5. Diversified: (Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2) From one growing perpetuity to growing another perpetuity organically or purchasing one to grow inorganically
  • 88. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 88 Finally, the owner is to diversify either organically (new product, new business) or inorganically. If the diversification is organic, the new product/business will naturally move through the phases of: 1. Syndication 2. Project/job shop 2. Perpetuity 3. Growing perpetuity Since the valuation is forward looking, it has to incorporate the new product/business’ financial performance. Since the parent company is now becoming diversified, the discount rate will now decrease which adds value to the parent company.
  • 89. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 89
  • 90. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 90 Chapter 31: How to Build a Benefit Stream? The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e. cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized (based upon a multiple of future earnings). Reasoning to Platform The ultimate conclusion of reasoning applied to a challenge/opportunity in nature is the building of a platform which in turn can be turned into a perpetuity. 1. Opportunity/challenge in nature 2. Key question associated with challenge/opportunity 3. Develop methodology that answers the key question 4. Build platform around the methodology 5. Perpetuity
  • 91. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 91 Existing Platform to New Value Theme A common way to begin on the build-side is to take an existing platform and apply the concept to a new value theme. We will discuss this in great detail in the cases portion of this text. Platform vs. Mod Platform is associated with network and is the core value, the connecting of individuals in an integrated platform. Platform is ultimately the basis for becoming a perpetuity. Mod is associated with a specific functionality. The Value of Technology & Science Technology and science have value inasmuch as they are associated with a perpetuity. Technology and science in isolation has no value. The Consumption Process & Growth Hacking It is important to have appropriate expectations regarding growth and returns. One does not simply build an MVP and turn on users with a switch. Brands are built one person at a time and consumption follows a definite process which is the following:
  • 92. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 92 1. Awareness of methodology via being advocated to directly on a social network or via email 2. Methodology adds value for individual (based in reason) and thus the user decides to be a follower 3. Followership of brand adds value enough so that when the 'ask' is made, the individual is willing to experiment with usage 4. Usage adds value enough so that the user becomes an active user 5. Active usage adds value enough so that individual is willing to recommend others to become users 6. Active users willing to pay for usage Since there is a definite process to consumption, one's growth hacking methodology should be consistent with this fact. The Growth Hacking Methodology means manually connecting with individuals on various social networks including Instagram, Facebook, & Twitter to first advocate the startup's methodology: 1. Develop thought leadership (methodology) 2. Advocate methodology and first contact 3. Acquire followership 4. Convert followership into users 5. Convert users into active users The key here is to advocate the startup's methodology and then show traction on the methodology which will be used to gain followership from influencers and turn them into evangelists for the methodology.
  • 93. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 93 Mechanisms like social proof can be helpful as they accelerate willingness to participate in followership or experiment with usage, but they are not a replacement for one by one advocacy of a methodology. Social proof kicks in incrementally as the startup hits an extra zero at the end of its followership and user numbers (ex. 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000).
  • 94. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 94
  • 95. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 95
  • 96. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 96
  • 97. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 97
  • 98. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 98 Chapter 32: How to De-Risk a Benefit Stream? The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e. cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized (based upon a multiple of future earnings).
  • 99. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 99
  • 100. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 100 Chapter 33: The Value Perpetuity Commodity -> Finite Benefit Job -> Active Benefit Perpetuity -> Passive Benefit Perpetuity
  • 101. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 101 Part VIII: Perpetuity Analysis On the build-side, we are ultimately concerned with the creation and management of perpetuities. We first explore the perpetuity analysis, perpetuity building process/timeline (including sources and uses) and then move towards a methodology for perpetuity management. The goal of Perpetuity Science is the building, growing, management, exit and buying of perpetuities, so ultimately, while learning about Perpetuity Science itself, we are also actively looking for: 1. Perpetuities to create 2. How to advance a perpetuity to the next phase 3. Perpetuities that should be exited from 4. Perpetuities that should be purchased Perpetuity analysis is performed with an understanding that a perpetuity’s ideal course of action at any given time is related to one
  • 102. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 102 of the three sides of the perpetuity (Build-side, Sell-side, Buy-side) which depends on the phase that the perpetuity is in: I. Industry and sub-industry indices made up of public comps II. Benchmark comps into Perpetuity Phases III. Build financial statement models for each IV. Determine DCF, Comp Companies & Precedent Transactions valuation football field V. Compare peers in Perpetuity Phase to intrinsic value to determine if this is a Buy-Side, Sell-Side or Build-Side deal (where are peer multiples at in relation to intrinsic value?) a. If Build-Side: What needs to be done to get to the next phase of the perpetuity? b. If Sell-Side: How to exit the perpetuity? c. If Buy-Side: How to acquire a target perpetuity? Perpetuity science explains how perpetuities can be built, managed and exited from to create wealth. As such, it inherently has an owner focus rather than simply a capital markets focus which is manifested by the dual goals of decreasing the owner’s active involvement in the day to day of the business and the maximizing of valuation. Perpetuity Analysis can occur at three levels: 1. Vertical (Industry) At the level of the industry, we can take the public comps as place them on the Market for Perpetuities chart:
  • 103. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 103 For example, we can take a look at the Oil & Gas vertical and see where the various players at:
  • 104. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 104 2. Sub-Vertical At the level of the industry, we can take the public comps as place them on the Market for Perpetuities chart: For example, we can take a look at the Oil & Gas machine manufacturing sub-vertical and see where the various players at:
  • 105. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 105 3. Corporation As discussed, a corporation is merely a portfolio of perpetuities. As such, we can map the corporation in terms of its perpetuities and see the stage of each individual perpetuity:
  • 106. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 106 An example of Perpetuity Analysis at the corporate level would be Berkshire Hathaway, which we have mapped below:
  • 107. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 107 Perpetuity science is where entrepreneurship, strategy & finance come together. It a field of study complete with a body of knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models towards improving the individual's quality of life by the building of a perpetuity that accomplishes two dual goals: 1. ever decreasing involvement of the perpetuity owner in the perpetuity 2. ever increasing valuation of the perpetuity Perpetuity science is ultimately about maximizing quality of life rather than just wealth by building perpetuities with recurring revenue streams that are not reliant on the daily participation of the owner of the perpetuity. We can take a look in a visual format of what we are trying to accomplish:
  • 108. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 108 As you will notice, the owner’s direct involvement in the perpetuity decreases as the perpetuity moves through the phases of development. Also, valuation increases as the perpetuity moves through the phases of development for three reasons; EBITDA increase, EBITDA multiple expansion, decrease in discount rate. The key question is: How to build a perpetuity that minimizes the daily involvement of the owner and at the same time maximizes it’s valuation. Though applicable to all industries, the focus industries of perpetuity science are thus those that do not require significant capital outlays which could otherwise be used to invest in a diversified portfolio. These industries include: 1. Technology 2. Media 3. Education 4. Business Services As you will notice, these industries have to do with knowledge working and benefit from information arbitrage and/or network arbitrage. While it is possible to structure arbitrage in other industries by preselling various products and services, knowledge working industries offer genuine information/network arbitrage as well as allowing for recurring revenue business models rather than being one time commodity or project-based. You will also notice that
  • 109. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 109 margins are much larger in knowledge working industries which translates into larger EBITDA multiples. Thus, the owner of the perpetuity is rewarded multiple times more for the value that their perpetuity creates than they would for commodity or project-based syndications. Given that the human has a limited amount of time on earth and limited resources within which to invest (energy, capital), one should invest their time in knowledge working industries and build perpetuities there first. Only after a perpetuity has been built in a knowledge working industry should the owner explore other non- knowledge related industries. One should thoroughly understand these industries overall and their sub-sectors when syndicating a new perpetuity. We will go into these industries in detail after explaining the perpetuity building process, the perpetuity management process, and perpetuity exit process. The science of the perpetuity can be broken down into three sequential categories including: I. Perpetuity Analysis II. Perpetuity Building III. Perpetuity Management Perpetuity Exit Market Analysis GDP
  • 110. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 110 Industry Spend Sub sector spending Sub sector spending by product Value Chain Analysis
  • 111. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 111 General Industry Sub-sector Sub-sector by product Gap Analysis General Industry Sub-sector Sub-sector by product Product/Platform Analysis Base Mods Perpetuity Science: A methodology that synthesizes industry and the capital markets in relation to the perpetuity. The science of building, selling and buying perpetuities. I. Nature of the Perpetuity II. Phases of the Perpetuity
  • 112. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 112 III. Sides of the Perpetuity IV. Perpetuity Analysis: Industry and sub-industry indices Determining where leaders are at in Perpetuity Phases Build financial statement models for each Compare Perpetuity Phase to intrinsic value Determine if this is a Buy Side, Sell Side or Build Side deal (where are multiples at in relation to intrinsic value?) What needs to be done to get to the next phase of the perpetuity?
  • 113. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 113
  • 114. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 114 Chapter 10: How to Be a CEO? The CEO’s role is to bring the company/opportunity through the stages of the perpetuity by building recurring benefit streams (i.e. cash flows) and at the same time de-risking those benefit streams. In doing so, the valuation of the perpetuity moves from backward looking towards forward looking and the valuation is thus maximized (based upon a multiple of future earnings). The CEO should thus be familiar with perpetuity science and the phases of the perpetuity. As the perpetuity changes, the formula for valuing the perpetuity changes as well. There are five phases of perpetuity building. As we move through the phases, the role of the owner of the perpetuity becomes more passive and the valuation becomes larger due to size of EBITDA increasing, EBITDA multiple increasing, and the discount rate decreasing. The perpetuity becomes less dependent on the owner to exist and run as an organizational structure is formed coinciding with the division of labor, processes are automated, and revenue becomes recurring. Phases of the Perpetuity:
  • 115. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 115 I. Syndication (Getting to PMT) II. Job Shop (From PMT1 to PMT2, PMT3, etc) III. Perpetuity (From PMTi to CF/r) IV. Growing Perpetuity (From CF/r to CF/r– g) V. Diversified (Perpetuity 1 + Perpetuity 2)
  • 116. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 116 Chapter 10: How to Be a Consultant? The consultant’s role is to aid in the building, selling, or buying of a perpetuity. Since the consultant’s value is in relation to the perpetuity, the consultant’s core methodology/body of knowledge is Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is the set of methodologies related to building, selling, and buying of perpetuities which is referred to as the build-side, sell-side, and buy-side respectively. The key questions related to each side of the perpetuity are: The consultant uses methodologies related to each one of these key questions which serve as the basis for a consulting engagement:
  • 117. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 117 1. Build-Side: How to move a company/opportunity to the next stage of the perpetuity building process? The methodology for the phases of a perpetuity is the following: 2. Sell-Side: How to obtain a valuation higher than the NPV of the perpetuity? The methodology for doing so is to get a buyer to price in the next phase of the perpetuity into the current valuation (ex. if the perpetuity is at the perpetuity phase, get the buyer to pay for a growing perpetuity) 3. Buy-Side: How to locate and take ownership of a perpetuity that is being valued at less than its NPV? The methodology for doing so is to get the seller to accept a price for the previous phase of the perpetuity (ex. if the perpetuity is at the growing perpetuity phase, get the seller to sell for at a perpetuity valuation) What Should You Learn in Business School?
  • 118. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 118 Since the perpetuity is the basis for both industry and the capital markets it follows that business school thus focus on educating individuals on: 1. The Nature of the Perpetuity 2. The Phases of the Perpetuity 3. The Different Sides of the Perpetuity The standard MBA curriculum at most business schools is broken down along siloed subjects such as accounting, finance, management, operations, and marketing and attempts to teach students how to be a mid-level manager at a large corporation for the rest of their lives. Unfortunately, these jobs are mostly gone, having been shipped overseas or automated. This MBA curriculum is thus outdated and not appropriate for the 21st century when most individuals will have multiple jobs and roles throughout their careers and lives. The more appropriate field of study which has yet to make it to business schools is known as Perpetuity Science. Perpetuity Science is the body of knowledge, methodologies, and optimization models related to the building, selling, and buying of perpetuities. It explains how perpetuities can be built, managed and exited from to create wealth. Perpetuity science is a paradigm shift in business and finance education in that it replaces the siloed subjects traditionally taught in undergraduate and graduate business schools with a holistic methodology that integrates industry and the capital markets into one framework.
  • 119. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 119 Instead of a disparate business taxonomy along the lines of economics, finance, accounting, marketing, etc., we have an initial taxonomy broken down in relation to the perpetuity, namely: Build-side – the building of perpetuities (entrepreneurs, corporations) Sell-side – the selling of perpetuities (investment bankers, wall street) Buy-side – the buying of perpetuities (private equity, corporate M&A) Within each of the three, we have various methodologies and optimization models that may touch on various subjects such as accounting, finance, economics. By starting with perpetuity science, the student can better synthesize the various moving parts of industry and the capital markets. 1. The Nature of the Perpetuity: When first learning about industry and the capital markets, one should first understand the nature of the perpetuity, which is the basis for industry & the capital markets. The perpetuity can be modeled with the following formula: Perpetuity value = CF / r Where CF represents the benefit stream associated with the perpetuity and r represents the discount rate associated with the perpetuity’s risk of receiving the benefit stream. 2. The Phases of the Perpetuity: After understanding the nature of the perpetuity in general, we can then analyze the perpetuity within each industry. The nature of the CF, r, value chain, and value being offered
  • 120. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 120 will be different. We investigate each industry according to these variables by building an index for each industry and then sub-sectors within the industry: 3. The Different Sides of the Perpetuity:
  • 121. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 121
  • 122. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 122
  • 123. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 123 Chapter 48: How to Be an Engineer? Engineer Methodology: 1. Identify challenges/opportunities in nature 2. Form key question 3. Develop methodology to answer key question 4. Build platform consistent with methodology 5. Turn platform into perpetuity
  • 124. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 124 Part IX: Perpetuity Management On the build-side, we are ultimately concerned with the creation and management of perpetuities. We first explore the perpetuity analysis, perpetuity building process/timeline (including sources and uses) and then move towards a methodology for perpetuity management.
  • 125. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 125 Chapter 15: Perpetuity Management The Purpose of the Company Companies exist to create value How Companies Create Value Companies create value by investing capital at rates of return that exceed their cost of capital. This is the principle of value creation. The only thing that differs across companies is the implementation (i.e. different asset and capitalization mix) Strategy & Finance
  • 126. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 126 Valuation Drivers The Role of the CEO Perpetuity Management
  • 127. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 127 Valuation
  • 128. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 128 Perpetuity Management with Discounted Cash Flows Growth or Restructuring Perpetuity Management Process
  • 129. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 129 Measuring Value Added: ROIC vs. Market Return Measure return on invested capital (after-tax operating profits divided by capital invested in working capital, PP&E) and compare it with stock market returns Measuring Value Added: Economic Profit & NPV Economic profit = ROIC spread % over cost of capital x invested capital The objective is to maximize economic profit. When the company is larger, one should use Net Present Value (NPV) which calculates economic profit in a more robust and flexible fashion. Valuation in the Public Markets Valuation in the public markets has investors paying for the performance they expect the company to achieve in the future; investors ultimately end up paying more since their valuations are not based upon the past or cost of the assets. The CEO should endeavor to have his company in the public markets since the largest multiples are applied in valuation Real Markets & Financial Markets
  • 130. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 130 When a public company, the CEO has to both maximize the intrinsic (DCF) value of the company and manage the expectations of the financial market Differences between actual performance and market expectations and changes in these expectations drive share prices. The delivery of surprises produces higher or lower total shareholder returns Perpetuity Planning & Control (i.e. Management) Planning & control system should be put in place to monitor the NPV of every business unit and summed to get the NPV of the corporation. Economic profit (i.e. NPV) targets set annually for next three years, progress monitored monthly and managers’ compensation tied to economic profit against these targets Value Metrics Metrics are to drive decisions and guide all employees toward value creation. Perpetuity Planning & Control (i.e. Management) in Practice Corporate management sets long-term value creation targets in terms of market value of a company or total returns to shareholders (TRS) Strategic alternatives valued in DCF (i.e. NPV)
  • 131. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 131 Intrinsic value of chosen strategic alternative translated into short and medium term financial targets and then targets for operating and strategic value drivers Performance assessed by comparing results with targets on both financial indicators and key value drivers. Managerial rewards linked to performance on financial measures and key value drivers Value Metrics: Market Value Added & Total Return to Shareholders Market Value Added is the difference between the market value of a company’s debt and equity and the amount of capital invested. Measures financial market’s view of future performance relative to capital invested in business. Total Return to Shareholders measure performance against the expectations of financial markets and changes in these expectations. TRS measures how well a company betas the target set by market expectations Value Metrics: DCF vs. Earnings Multiple DCF is intrinsic value. Earnings multiples are market values. Earnings alone is inadequate without understanding the investment required to generate the earnings. Should know ROIC Cash Flow
  • 132. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 132 Cash flow equals the operating profits of the company less the net investment in working capital and fixed assets to support the company’s growth. Perpetuity Management Capability 1. Analyze where perpetuity is currently at (which phase) 2. Determine which phase is the goal 3. Determine steps to get to next phase of the perpetuity 4. Build Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to get to next phase working backward from the next phase 5. Execute the plan Perpetuity Lifecycle:
  • 133. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 133 Chapter 16: Valuation Methodologies 1. Public Company Valuation 2. Comp Companies – Also known as trading comps. Management team gives you 1 to 2 years projections or equity research comp reports to get forward multiples (x Revenue or x EBITDA ) which may be used as the basis for this valuation. You can get comps from the general overview as it will discuss the target’s comps in the 10K. Find comps with good multiples to then tell your story to the marketplace to then get a certain valuation. a. Select the universe of comparable companies – Choose 7, 8, 10 comps, need their 10K, 10Q, analyst reports to get TEV for each comp then divide by line item to get multiple.
  • 134. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 134 b. Locate financial information on comp companies – Information must come from latest filing (10K or 10Q). Print out 10K, 10Q, analyst reports. c. Spread key financial information, ratios and multiples – Calculate TEV (in comp spread tab). To get MVE, use TSM method. TSM = Exercisable options outstanding x (share price – strike) / share price. d. Benchmark comp companies – Get the multiple that the company is trading at for each metric for each comp and get mean and median of comps for the metrics (ex. TEV/EBITDA) e. Determine implied valuation – Multiply mean and median multiple x the revenue or EBITDA to get the valuation range for your target company. Notes: The better the company, the higher the multiple and the better valuation you get. In IB/PE/CorpFin, you need to know comp companies and transaction comps. “Here are the comps in your sector…” Higher multiple because… Operating in better markets, better operations The multiple tells you which company is better, margin analysis tells you why they are better. Sell side key question: “Which comp would you use to guide potential buyers?”
  • 135. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 135 3. Precedent Transactions – comp transactions a. Select universe of comp transactions b. Locate deal-related and financial information – Need press release of the deal, 8K, 10K, and 10Q. Type of payment: cash, stock, cash & stock. c. Spread financial information, ratios and multiples – Get transaction TEV (implied) & transaction MVE (implied) d. Benchmark precedent transactions e. Determine implied valuation Notes: 20% to 25% control premium paid with the transaction multiple being an implied one based upon the valuation. Determine whether the market is good or bad based upon whether people are paying good premiums (control premiums). When a transaction occurs, update client on the latest transaction to show them impact on the control premiums being paid and implied multiple as well. Point to the transaction comps that have the highest control premium. 4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) a. Spread historical financial statements (input historicals) and derive historical ratios, trends and variables (drivers of future performance; margins and growth rates). Project financial statements (proforma). Revolver modeling to link IS, BS, and SCF
  • 136. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 136 b. Project free cash flow (FCF) c. Determine Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) – Discount rate Cost of equity: Rf = 10 year treasury Market risk premium = Rm – Rf. Refer to Ibbotson. Ultimately this is S&P returns over 70, 80, or 90 years Beta = Levered beta of comps to unlevered median and mean of comps (unlevered beta); should be .5 to 2.5; 2 year to 5 year betas (taking out capital structure and relever to actual capital structure. With beta, we are putting capital structure on unlevered beta mean and median of comps to calculate WACC of own company. Cost of debt: weighted average of tranches of debt tax effected; found in 10K. Rates from the notes. If private company, get from clients the tranches and to get rates, go to DCM to get approximation. Cost of equity 20% to 25% in private markets. No use of debt is an inefficient use of capital. Trying to optimize the D/E ratio to minimize cost of financing.
  • 137. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 137 d. Determine terminal value – EBITDA multiple which is going to be almost 80% of the company value. Terminal value = LTM multiple from comps x EBITDA. Perpetuity growth rate should be 2.5% to 3% and should not be larger than the size of the GDP of the country e. Calculate net present value (NPV) and determine implied valuation Notes: Need the valuation date; this determines stub year fraction (i.e. period left in the year). Stub year fraction – investor does not have claim on revenues before that. DCF value always moving through time consistent with valuation date. IB interviews test you on DCF. Everything else that you know is a bonus. Do DCF to find yield to decide whether or not to invest principal. Creating value: $ dollars of value increased by… Changing multiple on valuation Decreasing the discount rate
  • 138. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 138
  • 139. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 139
  • 140. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 140 Chapter 17: Framing Valuation We are not looking at each valuation methodology in isolation but are ultimately using the methodologies together to frame the valuation in a valuation summary format. We use a “football field” (valuation summary) to frame the valuation which looks like the following: Regarding the football field, we add control premiums to comp companies and DCF (% addition that is equal to the control premium average for the transaction comps) if doing valuation for selling the company.
  • 141. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 141 Footnote everything (assumptions) in the football field. The football field takes one day to a few days depending on how easy it is to obtain the precedent transactions data. Banker should know what valuation the client expects to be at; 10% to 15% spread of range of valuation (“tighten” the range if needed by eliminating comps that skew the range) For each valuation methodology we are going to do a sensitivity analysis to determine a valuation range:
  • 142. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 142 Chapter 18: The Market for Perpetuities The market for the perpetuity at its initial stages is inefficient, but as it moves through the stages of a perpetuity, the market becomes more efficient. You can observe the coinciding cost of capital move from almost 100% going all the way down to 3.5%. You can observe the EBITDA multiple for the perpetuity increasing as the perpetuity moves through the phases of the perpetuity.
  • 143. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 143
  • 144. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 144 SELL-SIDE As perpetuities continue to grow, the builder of the perpetuity seeks to grow the perpetuity inorganically or exit the perpetuity. This is the primary role of the sell-side, which is to aid in the buying and selling of perpetuities. Investment bankers now enter the picture as this is their core work.
  • 145. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 145 Part X: How to Sell a Perpetuity? On the sell side, the primary responsibility of the investment banker is to aid those owning perpetuities in analyzing their strategic alternatives related to inorganic growth or exit. Which phase is the perpetuity in? (SMB, LMM, MM, UMM, L) Which buyers are likely interested in the perpetuity? (Individual, Financial, Strategic, Special Situation)
  • 146. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 146 Each of these buyers have a different valuation range Individual – Desire 30% to 40% IRR, 3x EBITDA Financial – 4x to 7x EBITDA Strategic – 5x to 10x EBITDA Valuation is a range Determine valuation method (DCF, comp companies, precedent transactions) Calculate benefit stream (synergistic vs. owner benefit) Determine required rate of return given the phase of the perpetuity and the buyer (discount rate) Convert benefit stream into present value at the discount rate Sensitize the variables for a range of values to see effect on valuation (sensitivity table) Strategics and financials establish their filter criteria (hurdle IRRs for financial and minimum EPS increase for strategics) and test targets against this filter Strategics have a range of values with standalone value as the lower end and valuation with all synergies on the higher end. A deal happens usually in the middle
  • 147. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 147 Chapter 19: Investment Banking Since M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions) is the core product of investment banking, discussions around investment banking typically relate to M&A. M&A is the selling of a perpetuity in the form of a corporation to either a financial or strategic buyer. Financial and strategic buyers have what is known as investment/corporate M&A mandates which detail the size and industry of prospective targets for acquisition. The investment banker takes these mandates and matches them with targets and takes a fee for doing so. Investment bankers typically focus on one industry and provide what is known as
  • 148. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 148 coverage by building an index of public companies and tracking changes in targets relative to the index in terms of: Revenue EBITDA Multiples The investment banker monitors trends in these variables and determines the optimal time to sell (when multiples are strong) or acquire (when multiples are weak) and advises target management accordingly. When a target agrees to sell via an investment banker, this relationship is known as a sell-side mandate and an M&A process will be led by the investment banker. During the M&A process, there are definite steps and deliverables including a teaser, CIM, and management presentation. The M&A process can include many prospective buyers (broad auction) or few prospective buyers (targeted or negotiated sale). The investment banking core product is M&A. As such, the investment banker’s role is to aid in the growth of perpetuities via an inorganic strategy (merger, acquisition). The real work of M&A is origination, matching and deal-structuring. Financial modeling and valuation is merely for decision support and deals often get done simply based upon precedent transactions analysis. Thus, the priority of the investment bankers is to obtain a base level understanding of financial modeling & valuation but then to immediately start originating sell side and buy side mandates.
  • 149. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 149 Investment bankers explore strategic alternatives (value creation opportunities) with corporation’s CEO’s/owners. Notes: Valuation Football Field and the Midpoint is the final valuation of the company. Calculate NPV and IRR to the sponsor in LBO or EPS Change and Balance Sheet Effects in Merger Compare NPV and IRR OR compare EPS change and BS effects to other strategic alternatives and choose the highest return/EPS alternative Ultimately, as an investment banker, you are to: Use valuation methodologies to determine valuation ranges of each strategic alternative and see if capital sources match uses. IBankers should provide the client with tight ranges on valuation. Use an operating model of the target (and acquirer if strategic) and then tailor it to the specific client: Financial (LBO) Strategic (Merger) Determine: NPV and IRR for financial in LBO EPS change and balance sheet effects for strategic in merger M&A
  • 150. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 150 Run the M&A process Traditional Investment Bank Responsibilities: Junior Banker: Industry coverage Comps and comp transactions (where are multiples) Valuation Mid Banker: Operating model creation + tailored to transaction client (LBO or Merger) Manage M&A process Senior Banker: Revenue center Personal contacts at firms to win engagements
  • 151. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 151
  • 152. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 152 Chapter 20: How to Become an Investment Banker Methodology The following is the How to Become an Investment Banker Methodology: 1. Coverage a) Index building b) Vertical report c) Vertical newsletter 2. Target screen & origination 3. Mandate/target matching 4. Deal structuring 5. Buyer/seller meeting logistics 6. Adjusted EBITDA calculation 7. Valuation 8. Offer analysis 9. Purchase agreement drafting/structuring
  • 153. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 153 10. Due diligence data room 11. Closing & flow of funds Decide on the industry/industries that you will cover, read/research the value themes/players/multiples in the industry on the following levels: 1. Large cap 2. Mid cap 3. Small cap 4. Middle market 5. Lower middle market Pick an initial vertical and sub-vertical to cover. With AltQuest Group, our initial coverage groups were the following: 1. Manufacturing 2. Software 3. Business Services 4. Healthcare After choosing your coverage, the investment banker is then to build an index for each of the verticals and sub-verticals made up with the public comps. The AltQuest Group coverage is broken down in the following manner: 1. Manufacturing a. Durable consumer b. Non-durable consumer
  • 154. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 154 c. Aerospace & defense d. Building products e. Industrial f. Medical 2. Software a. Traditional software b. SAAS c. Internet 3. Business Services a. Education & Training b. Business Process Outsourcing c. Facility Services and Industrial Services d. Human Resources e. Information Services f. Marketing Services g. Real Estate Services h. IT Services i. Specialty Consulting 4. Healthcare a. Dental Product b. Dental Providers c. Medical Devices & Products d. Medical Product Distribution e. Specialty Providers f. Pharma Services g. Practice Management h. Provider Services i. Long Term & Behavioral Care
  • 155. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 155 The investment banker then spreads each public comp and the financial data feeds into the median and average for the vertical and sub-vertical which ultimately ends up in the research (industry report, newsletter), pitchbooks, and CIMs of the investment bank. For investment banks with an equity research department, financial statement models will be built for each public comp that is being covered and consensus EPS data taken from research reports will be used to establish the value of the public comp. The investment banker ultimately uses the vertical index and sub- vertical index to perform proprietary research and develop industry reports and newsletters which will aid in coverage and ultimately origination. The research, which we will go into greater detail on later in the book focuses on vertical and sub-vertical trends in margins, multiples, and M&A. After establishing one's coverage and then building an index for the vertical and sub-vertical as well as establishing relationships with strategic and financial buyers within the vertical and sub-vertical, the investment banker may begin advising targets on their strategic alternatives using information gleaned from the vertical and sub- vertical indices. Regarding the vertical index and sub-vertical index, the investment banker ultimately tracks trends in: Growth rates Margins Debt to Equity
  • 156. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 156 Multiples The investment banker takes the index and establishes tiers which turn into peer groups. This is why we pull public comps; to benchmark a target against the comps. By comparing a target's level of performance to it's peers and the industry in general the investment banker can determine when it is ideal to exit the business (when multiples are strong) and when it is not (when multiples are weak). This is how investment bankers advise on strategic alternatives. Getting Started in Investment Banking For those just getting started in investment banking, it is preferable to start with the lower middle market and middle market building relationships with financial and strategic buyers as well as potential targets. This means building your rolodex. Obtain the investment mandates from the strategic and financial buyers and establish a fee arrangement for buy-side deals. This will end up being the Lehman scale for the fee on the buy-side. This is how I built the boutique investment bank, AltQuest Group (www.AltQuest.com). For example, with AltQuest Group, I chose to cover manufacturing. If you are starting in the lower middle market, the goal is to get 10 sell side engagements at any given time. It took me one year to get 10 sell side engagements working 40 hours per week and not on weekends. Further, it is going to take you 6 months to one year to
  • 157. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 157 close a deal so stay proactive with origination and mandate/target matching. To give you an idea of the level of productivity that you should target, the following are the investment banking statistics from year one with AltQuest Group: 3,000 introduction emails 30 sell side pitches (phone and in person) 10 sell side engagements won 4 IOIs from strategic/financial buyers As you get better and establish a process, your email conversion rates will go up and you will be pitching more and your ability to win sell side engagements will go up. I am at the point now that if a seller is interested in selling, I will either win the sell side mandate or I will structure it as a buy side deal and receive the fee from the strategic/financial buyer. Looking forward to year two, here are the projections: 1,000 introduction emails 50 sell side pitches (phone and in person) 20 (+18 existing = 38 total engagements) sell side engagements won 8 IOIs from strategic/financial buyers 2 closed M&A deals $110,000 in M&A fees received
  • 158. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 158 The statistics assume that you will be working full time at 40 hours per week and not working on the weekends. Regarding fees, here is a simplified understanding of fee structure for sell side engagements. The key to remember here is that you do not make your money when you quote your fee, you make your money when you close the deal. The point is that I would rather win an engagement and give up 1% to 2% of the fee than have the seller think that I am not being fair. The Lehman scale simplifies this a bit but often times the seller will want to know the exact % that they will be paying you. Large cap – Lehman scale Mid cap – Lehman scale Small cap – Lehman scale Middle market – Double Lehman structure Lower middle market – 3% to 10%
  • 159. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 159
  • 160. FAMELINKED: THE FAME NETWORK & MARKETPLACE 160 Part XI: The Middle Market The majority of perpetuities are in what is known as the middle market, a classification for mid-sized perpetuities. This is where the majority of the transactions occur and where the average investment banker will make his living.