FACTORS THAT AFFECT US HEALTH CARE IN THE FUTURE 9 The factors that may affect US health care in the future Jack Alcineus PM 730 Long Island University Dr. Simone Martin Introduction The global health care industry has been growing fast in recent years, and the trend seems to go on perpetually. In the United States, expenditure on health care is in excess of 15% of the national gross domestic product (GDP). This, according to Deloitte, is the highest amount of expenditure on health care the world over. Further, the United States has a large population of people under insurance where only 15% do not have insurance. To be sure, an American either has private insurance or is covered by government-funded programs like the one fronted by the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This is quite necessary for a country where a single major medical bill is enough to send one into personal bankruptcy. Interestingly, most of the American population is entering the geriatric phase of life fueled by the aging baby boomers. Further, Ikegami (2015) wrote that the US health care system is in the process of shifting from the situation where only the volume of patients treated mattered. This system relied on fees for service and which gave healthcare providers the revenue incentive to reach more patients. To be sure, the healthcare sector is shifting a value-based system where the value delivered to the patient will take center stage (Burwell, 2015). Therefore, it is apparent that the healthcare sector will experience fundamental changes in terms of quality of service, a volume of people accessing healthcare services and the general healthcare situation across all the 50 states. In this light, this paper intends to highlight factors that will affect healthcare in the future and in what direction will these factors move the sector in general. Demographic and social factors The US might be among the developed economy countries that are aging the slowest but the population is still graying. In 2010, Pew Research Center said that 13% of Americans were 65 years of age or older. At the same time, the firm projected that this cohort would grow up to take up 18% of the American population by 2030 (Cohn & Taylor, 2014, April 10). Once people get older, their productivity drops significantly and they begin to experience a lot more medical complications than before. To be sure, the aging population will add a huge strain to the healthcare sector in terms of geriatric care as well as complications tied to old age. Once a nation has a huge population of old people, there will be a high demand of healthcare services which, basically, imply that healthcare providers will be on high demand (Keehan, Stone, Poisal, Cuckler, Sisko, Smith... & Lizonitz, 2017). Interestingly, the increased demand will also lead to a higher demand for labor force in the sector to carry out duties like geriatric care, to provide physical therapy and other tasks like providing aid for ol.

1. FACTORS THAT AFFECT US HEALTH CARE IN THE
FUTURE 9
The factors that may affect US health care in the future
Jack Alcineus
PM 730
Long Island University
Dr. Simone Martin
Introduction
The global health care industry has been growing fast in recent
years, and the trend seems to go on perpetually. In the United
States, expenditure on health care is in excess of 15% of the
national gross domestic product (GDP). This, according to
Deloitte, is the highest amount of expenditure on health care the
world over. Further, the United States has a large population of
people under insurance where only 15% do not have insurance.
To be sure, an American either has private insurance or is
covered by government-funded programs like the one fronted by
the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This is quite necessary for a
country where a single major medical bill is enough to send one
into personal bankruptcy.

2. Interestingly, most of the American population is entering the
geriatric phase of life fueled by the aging baby boomers.
Further, Ikegami (2015) wrote that the US health care system is
in the process of shifting from the situation where only the
volume of patients treated mattered. This system relied on fees
for service and which gave healthcare providers the revenue
incentive to reach more patients. To be sure, the healthcare
sector is shifting a value-based system where the value
delivered to the patient will take center stage (Burwell, 2015).
Therefore, it is apparent that the healthcare sector will
experience fundamental changes in terms of quality of service, a
volume of people accessing healthcare services and the general
healthcare situation across all the 50 states. In this light, this
paper intends to highlight factors that will affect healthcare in
the future and in what direction will these factors move the
sector in general.
Demographic and social factors
The US might be among the developed economy countries that
are aging the slowest but the population is still graying. In
2010, Pew Research Center said that 13% of Americans were 65
years of age or older. At the same time, the firm projected that
this cohort would grow up to take up 18% of the American
population by 2030 (Cohn & Taylor, 2014, April 10). Once
people get older, their productivity drops significantly and they
begin to experience a lot more medical complications than
before.
To be sure, the aging population will add a huge strain to the
healthcare sector in terms of geriatric care as well as
complications tied to old age. Once a nation has a huge
population of old people, there will be a high demand of
healthcare services which, basically, imply that healthcare
providers will be on high demand (Keehan, Stone, Poisal,
Cuckler, Sisko, Smith... & Lizonitz, 2017). Interestingly, the

3. increased demand will also lead to a higher demand for labor
force in the sector to carry out duties like geriatric care, to
provide physical therapy and other tasks like providing aid for
old people in homes. Essentially, this is to say that employment
opportunities will expand in the healthcare sector.
Further, this also implies that most of the healthcare institutions
will convert a lot of skilled labor to take care of aging
Americans. Due to the high demand, institutions will be forced
to pay workers like geriatric nurses higher pay to retain them.
This way, more skilled labor will be attracted to the sector and
hence denying other healthcare sectors services they too dearly
need. Once such imbalances in labor allocation begin to take
root, the unattended section of the population will increasingly
record poor health standards (Keehan et al, 2017).
The cost of healthcare
By 2022, Deloitte estimates that the global expenditure of
healthcare will clock $10.059 trillion. Interestingly, a huge
chunk of this expenditure will come from the United States. The
cost healthcare boils down to demographic changes where the
country will be dealing with more elderly people than ever
before. Further, the United States instituted the Affordable Care
Act (ACA), also called Obamacare which seeks to cover the
healthcare needs of the poor, the disabled and the elderly.
To be sure, the government at all levels subsidizes the
marketplace premiums for the above-mentioned groups of
people under the ACA program. Interestingly, certain costs like
that of services within the sector are increasingly going up.
Further, the cost of pharmaceutical drugs is also on the rise
given the high cost of production. In essence, this is evidence
that the government will continue to spend more money on
healthcare in the future.
Writing in the Journal of Health Economics, Frean, Gruber &
Sommers (2017) said increased expenditure on welfare

4. programs like ACA will deny other pertinent healthcare areas
like Research and Development. The net effect of this is that
there will be few funds to pursue cures for dangerous diseases
like cancer and diabetes which are among the highest causes of
deaths among Americans. Thus, the healthcare sector will
increasingly grow incapable of controlling the fatalities arising
from the diseases.
Innovations in medical technology as well as digital technology
The healthcare sector is a huge beneficiary of technological
advancement. Since the invention of the stethoscope, the
medical fraternity has had a plethora of technological solutions
that have made the practice easier and more accurate. Notably,
there are technological advancements that are already
revolutionizing the way physicians deliver care to patients. For
instance, Ben-Menachem & Krauss (2014) observed that brain
implants have gone a long way in helping to control epilepsy.
Further, there are other innovations (like the possibility of
remote monitoring of patient vitals by nurses) that are flipping
the practice of healthcare on its head.
Interestingly, there are emerging technologies (otherwise called
technologies of the future) that promise to further the ongoing
revolution in the healthcare sector. To be sure, innovations in
digital technology are finding vital use cases in the healthcare
sector. For instance, blockchain technology promises to disrupt
the healthcare sector in that patient data handling will be
transparent and decentralized. Further, artificial intelligence
will be the new coworker in health facilities of the future while
virtual reality will revolutionize how practitioners approach the
medical practice (Mettler, 2016, September), (Ma, Jain &
Anderson, 2014) and (Jiang, Jiang, Zhi, Dong, Li, Ma ... &
Wang, 2017).
Cumulatively, the new technologies will improve the quality of
care that patients will receive from medical facilities. Further,
VR will help in better performance during surgeries and hence

5. increase the chances of accurate work and survival of patients.
With the help of technology, many complex processes of today
will be simpler and hence less time will spent delivering care.
Ultimately, there is a high likelihood that healthcare will cost
lower and that it will be more affordable.
Data protection and cybercrime
It is overly clear that much of the healthcare operations in the
future will be heavily integrated into the internet ecosystem.
Notably, the use of AI, VR and blockchain systems require an
internet connection. Further, as healthcare increasingly relies on
technology to deliver quality care, there is an increasing need
for patient data in order for a better understanding of patients'
medical needs. As such, the healthcare providers will
increasingly gravitate towards big data and how they can
leverage it stay ahead of the competition in terms of quality.
With big data and deep integration into the internet ecosystem
come new challenges; data privacy and cybercrime. According
to Patil & Seshadri (2014, June), the rise of big data has turned
individual data like patient data into the new currency. Notably,
today's technology like wearable health monitoring devices
relies on the data to work better. Therefore, data has become
valuable and anyone would want to get their hands on it.
Unfortunately, the precious nature of data today and in future
will continue to attract bad actors who would want to use it
inappropriately.
Therefore, healthcare providers face a huge task of ensuring
that the patient data in their possession is safe from reach by
cybercriminals. Further, the institutions must ensure that they
respect the privacy of the data that they may have in possession.
This includes using the data in a way that does not agree with
the kind of contract that exists between the institutions and the
owners of the data. Ultimately, the availability of the data and
the technologies to transform the data into meaningful

6. information will improve the quality of healthcare and the
satisfaction of the patients. However, it is possible that many
healthcare providers might find themselves battling litigations
if they fail to handle the data in their possession with utmost
caution.
New models of healthcare delivery
As per Burwell (2015, the global healthcare sector is moving
away from the transactional model of health care toward a
model that is centered upon the wellness of the patients. This
wellness model ensures that patients get quality care which
ensures that they stay out of hospitals for longer. On the
contrary, the fee-for-service model that is prevalent today
requires that patients pay for each and every service they
receive from healthcare providers. The thinking behind this
model is that providers get to earn much more revenue that
enables them to refine their services and hence they get in a
position where they offer very high-quality services. However,
the contention is that such a model is punitive to the patients,
especially those who are poor.
To be sure, the passing of the Affordable Care Act in the US is
a piece of solid evidence that the healthcare sector will not be
the same ten years to come as it is today. The legislation
requires all Americans to be able to access medical services
regardless of their economic status. Interestingly, healthcare
providers will be encouraged to facilitate transformation
through various incentives. To deliver such ambitious reforms,
there will need to be changed in the way workers within the
healthcare sector are hired. Interestingly, Myrick & del Vecchio
(2016) wrote that the process of hiring the workforce for the
healthcare sector will focus on their behavioral aspect more.
Therefore, one should expect the demand for certain jobs to fall
even as new jobs emerge to cater to the evolved needs.
Economic conditions

7. The state of any country's economy plays a huge role in how
other sectors operate. Notably, the economy is central to the
ability of people to afford basic needs including the ability to
access medical services. For instance, poor economic conditions
like unemployment due to a recession leads to a lack of income.
This way, the unemployed will have to rely on the state to cater
to their basic needs through welfare programs.
Like earlier discussed, the US has the ACA program that bails
out the less fortunate in the country. In case of a recession,
many more people will fall into the category of the less
fortunate and the government will need more money to cover
the high ACA enrollment. In the end, the government will end
up spending a lot more on welfare programs and further
neglecting R&D. Ultimately, this might adversely affect the
healthcare sector and leaving the people worse off.
Conclusion
Apparently, healthcare is a vital sector in any country and
governments are oftentimes justified in spending billions to
ensure every citizen can access quality care. Clearly, the US
spends more than any other country to achieve this goal.
However, it is apparent that the demographics of the country
will force the government to dig deeper into its pockets. In
particular, the increasing number of aged citizens will strain the
ACA program that subsidizes medical premiums. Further, the
increased of healthcare will force the government to do less
R&D and hence progress in the treatment of some killer
diseases might stall. Also, technological innovations are set to
deliver affordable and quality care. However, the reliance on
technology will continuously face the threat violation of data
privacy as well as cybercrime. Ultimately, the certainty of
healthcare adopting a new model of service delivery is growing
bolder by the day and patients might in future access high-
quality care at a cheaper premium.

8. References
Ben-Menachem, E., & Krauss, G. L. (2014). Epilepsy:
Responsive neurostimulation—modulating the epileptic brain.
Nature Reviews Neurology, 10(5), 247.
Burwell, S. M. (2015). Setting value-based payment goals—
HHS efforts to improve US health care. N Engl J Med, 372(10),
897-899.
Cohn, D., & Taylor, P. (2014, April 10). Baby Boomers
Approach 65 – Glumly. Retrieved February 26, 2019, from
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/12/20/baby-boomers-
approach-65-glumly/
Frean, M., Gruber, J., & Sommers, B. D. (2017). Premium
subsidies, the mandate, and Medicaid expansion: Coverage
effects of the Affordable Care Act. Journal of Health
Economics, 53, 72-86.
Ikegami, N. (2015). Fee-for-service payment–an evil practice
that must be stamped out?. International journal of health policy
and management, 4(2), 57.
Jiang, F., Jiang, Y., Zhi, H., Dong, Y., Li, H., Ma, S., ... &
Wang, Y. (2017). Artificial intelligence in healthcare: past,
present and future. Stroke and vascular neurology, 2(4), 230-
243.
Keehan, S. P., Stone, D. A., Poisal, J. A., Cuckler, G. A., Sisko,
A. M., Smith, S. D., ... & Lizonitz, J. M. (2017). National
health expenditure projections, 2016–25: price increases, aging
push sector to 20 percent of economy. Health Affairs, 36(3),
553-563.
Ma, M., Jain, L. C., & Anderson, P. (Eds.). (2014). Virtual,
augmented reality and serious games for healthcare 1 (Vol. 1).
Berlin: Springer.
Mettler, M. (2016, September). Blockchain technology in
healthcare: The revolution starts here. In 2016 IEEE 18th
International Conference on e-Health Networking, Applications
and Services (Healthcom) (pp. 1-3). IEEE.
Myrick, K., & del Vecchio, P. (2016). Peer support services in
the behavioral healthcare workforce: State of the field.

9. Psychiatric rehabilitation journal, 39(3), 197.
Patil, H. K., & Seshadri, R. (2014, June). Big data security and
privacy issues in healthcare. In 2014 IEEE international
congress on big data (pp. 762-765). IEEE.
Respond to the following: Answer the 2 discussion question.
Include at least 1 reference. A good response to a written
question should combine your personal experiences with theory
to support your work. Be thoughtful and insightful and it must
demonstrate critical thinking and analysis. A good response to
the question should be about 3-4 paragraphs, and address all of
the issues that are raised. (Introduction, body and conclusion.)
Thank you. When answering discussion questions use an
example in your answer. These examples can be from your own
experience or from something you've read in the news, on the
internet, or from any other credible sourceM5D1: What Does
Money Have to Do With it?
It was once a common adage that “you get as much justice as
you can afford.” That is, the rich and powerful exact better legal
representation than the poor and indigent. However, with
overcrowded prisons, enormous caseloads, and given the current
economic climate where many state and local governments are
struggling with budget deficits, some states are actually
presenting their judges with the approximate costs of prison,
probation, and other forms of punishment so that these
economic factors can be carefully weighed in their sentence
practices. But, critics and prosecutors are concerned that judges
may go too easy on criminals in order to meet budget goals, at
the real “expense” of the larger social costs of crime,
particularly as it relates to the victims.
1. Discuss and debate which side of the issue you most favor
regarding judges being presented with potential sentencing costs
before they render a sentence.M5D2: Sentencing Options for the
Mentally Ill
Often, the seriously mentally ill in our nation are more likely to

10. be incarcerated than hospitalized, although due process
advocates argue that deinstitutionalization would allow the
mentally ill to have the same rights and freedoms as others;
however, others argue this is not a simple “one-size-fits all”
issue. Judges at all levels of our court system often struggle
with this sort of sentencing decision, relying heavily on the
findings of the pre - sentence report. Pre-sentence investigators
attempt to define the defendant’s illness and weigh it to the
particular crime when suggesting sentencing recommendations,
but, ultimately, the sentencing decision rests with the judge, and
both society and the defendant must endure any unintended
consequences that may arise from the sentencing decision, as
presented in the following video.
View the video, The Released: Downside of
Deinstitutionalization (Links to an external site.)Links to an
external site. [Video File][01 Min 53 Sec]
2. If you were a pre-sentence officer, discuss your reasons and
the sentencing options you might recommend to the judge in the
case of a seriously mentally ill defendant, ensuring that both the
public’s and the defendant’s rights are protected.
Respond to the following: Answer the
2
discussion
question. Include at
least
1
reference.

11. A good response to a written question should combine your
personal experiences with theory to
support your work
.
Be
thoughtful
and
insightful
and
it
must
demonstrate
critical
thinking
and
analysis.
A good response to the question should be about 3
-
4 paragraphs, and address all of the
issues that are raised.
(Introduction, body and conclusion.
) Thank you.
When

12. answe
ring
discussion questions use an example in your answer. These
examples can be from your own
experience or from something you've read in the news, on the
internet, or from any other credible
source
M5
D1:
What Does Money Have to Do With it?
It was once a common adage that “you get as much justice as
you can afford.” That is, the rich
and powerful exact better legal representation than the poor and
indigent. However, with
overcrowded
prisons, enormous caseloads, and given the current economic
climate where many
state and local governments are struggling with budget deficits,
some states are actually
presenting their judges with the approximate costs of prison,
probation, and other form
s of
punishment so that these economic factors can be carefully
weighed in their sentence practices.
But, critics and prosecutors are concerned that judges may go
too easy on criminals in order to
meet budget goals, at the real “expense” of the larger soci
al costs of crime, particularly as it
relates to the victims.
1
.

13. Discuss and debate which side of the issue you most favor
regarding judges being presented
with potential sentencing costs before they render a sentence.