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1. FACEBOOK GOES PUBLIC
WHAT NOW?
A perspective on Facebook in 2012
from Publicis Modem London

2. FACEBOOK IS A BUSINESS
THAT COLLECTS USER DATA TO
SELL TO ADVERTISERS
“If you are not paying for it, you're not the customer;
you're the product being sold”
— blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com

3. BETWEEN APRIL AND JUNE,
THE COMPANY WILL GO PUBLIC
“The deal […] could raise as much as $10 billion
and value the social network between $75 billion and $100 billion”
— The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing

4. SO HOW IS FACEBOOK
CURRENTLY PERFORMING?

5. WITH MORE THAN 845 MILLION
USERS, FACEBOOK IS THE
DOMINANT SOCIAL PLATFORM
Sept. 2009 Mar. 2010 Sept. 2010 Mar. 2011 Dec. 2011
305m
431m
550m
680m
845m

6. IN 2011, FACEBOOK GENERATED
$3.7 BILLION IN REVENUE
AND $1 BILLION IN PROFIT
— Facebook S-1’s filling, 01.02.11,
Facebook IPO: what we've learned from its S-1 filing

7. AND FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS,
REVENUE HAS BEEN
GROWING RAPIDLY
20112010200920082007
$153m
$272m
$777m
$1,974m
$3,711m
— Facebook S-1’s filling

8. Advertising
85%
Credits
15%
FACEBOOK GENERATES
REVENUE IN TWO WAYS:
ADVERTISING AND FB CREDITS
— Facebook S-1’s filling

9. DESPITE STRONG ADVERTISING
REVENUE, FACEBOOK HAS ROOM
TO GROW IN THE GLOBAL MARKET
In 2010, Brands spent $64 billion in digital advertising
- ZenithOptimedia, 03.10.11,
ZenithOptimedia Adspend Forecast Update Oct

10. Google
46%
Yahoo
9%
Microsoft
4%
Facebook
3%
AOL
2%
The rest
36%
IN 2010, FACEBOOK OWNED
3% OF THE PIE WHEREAS
GOOGLE OWNED 46%
— Daren Herman, 29.11.11,
Total Digital Revenues

11. HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE
ITS SHARE OF THE PIE?

12. TWO WAYS TO GROW REVENUE:
1. ADD MORE USERS
2. INCREASE REVENUE PER USER

13. ADDING MORE USERS
WILL BE A CHALLENGE
“[Facebook] user growth had slowed in the U.S. and Canada… a deeper look…
shows its growth is also slowing in Europe and Asia....”
— The Tennessean, 12.02.12,
Facebook sees its growth slowing down

14. SO FACEBOOK MUST FOCUS
ON INCREASING AVERAGE
REVENUE PER USER
— Based on Facebook S-1’s filling
2009 2010 2011

15. FACEBOOK IS WELL BEHIND
GOOGLE WHEN IT COMES TO
REVENUE PER USER
“Google generates 6X more revenue per user than Facebook”
— Business Insider, 05.01.12,
Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth

16. “IT TOOK FACEBOOK
ALMOST 800 MINUTES OF USER
TIME TO GET $1 IN REVENUE”
— The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12,
Why Facebook may not be a growth story

17. HOW CAN FACEBOOK INCREASE
AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER?

18. ENSURE THAT EVERY USER
IS LOCKED-IN
"Lock-in is the point at which users are so invested in their technology that even if
competitors might offer better services, it’s not worth making the switch”
— Eli Pariser, 06.11
The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You

19. BY ENSURING LOCK-IN, USER
TIME SPENT INCREASES AND
SO DOES THEIR DATA PROFILE

20. TIME SPENT, DATA AND
EFFECTIVENESS ARE THE KEYS
TO ATTRACTING BRAND SPEND
“From the point of view of the online advertiser, the question is simple.
Which company can deliver the most return on a dollar spent?”
— Eli Pariser, 06.11
The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You

21. INCREASED TIME SPENT
MEANS SELLING MORE ADS
“We now see that keeping traffic within Facebook via Fanning and Facebook
Application campaigns can reduce CPCs by 45%”
— TGB Digital, 01.12,
Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts

22. WHEREAS INCREASED DATA
MEANS SELLING BETTER ADS
"As a business strategy, the Internet giants’ formula is simple: The more personally
relevant their information offerings are, the more ads they can sell, and the
more likely you are to buy the products they’re offering”
— Eli Pariser, 06.11
The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You

23. “THE FIGHT BETWEEN
GOOGLE AND FACEBOOK
HINGES ON WHICH CAN ACHIEVE
LOCK-IN FOR THE MOST USERS”
— Eli Pariser, 06.11
The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You

24. FACEBOOK USED 3 APPROACHES
TO BUILD LOCK-IN FROM
THE BEGINNING

25. 2006 200520042004
1. DEFINE USER’S IDENTITY
& CONNECT PEOPLE
TO PEOPLE

26. 2006
2007
2. ALLOW ANYONE TO CREATE
WITHIN THE PLATFORM

27. 20062009
3. BECOME THE SOCIAL LAYER
THAT CONNECTS THE WEB

28. BUILDING
DIGITAL IDENTITY
GATHERING
THIRD PARTIES
SPREADING
THE SOCIAL LAYER
2004
Facebook launched
the Profile
2007
Facebook launched
platform applications
2009
Facebook launched
the Like button
FACEBOOK
1
2
3

29. IN 2011, FACEBOOK RELEASED
NEW PRODUCTS THAT
CONTINUE THIS STRATEGY

30. #1.
“The next five years, the next era is going to be defined by the apps
and the depth of engagement that is now possible”
— Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
THE TIMELINE
A NEW DIGITAL IDENTITY
FOR EVERY USER

31. THE TIMELINE RE-ARRANGES
YOUR PROFILE INFORMATION

32. 3. APPS2. STORIES
1. COVER

33. USERS CAN NOW ADD SPECIFIC
APPS TO THEIR TIMELINE

35. TIMELINE ALLOWS FACEBOOK
TO KNOW YOUR DETAILED
DIGITAL HISTORY, NOT JUST
YOUR CURRENT PROFILE

36. #2.
“All your stories, all your apps and a new
way to express who you are”
— Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
THE OPEN GRAPH
A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HOW
SOCIAL EXPERIENCES WORK

37. FACEBOOK KNEW WHAT YOU LIKE
“Sharing content to Facebook meant clicking the "Like" button, cutting
and pasting a link into the status update box”
— Read Write Web, 14.12.11,
Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing

38. NOW WITH OPEN GRAPH,
FACEBOOK KNOWS WHAT YOU DO
“Anytime you're reading news from a social news app or listening to music from a
social music app, Facebook automatically shares it to your Facebook Timeline”
— Read Write Web, 14.12.11,
Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing

39. BRANDS NEED TO
GO BEYOND THE LIKE…
“We want 100K fans”
— A common request, 2011

40. …AND THINK ABOUT ACTIONS
“This new expressive language means you will be able to add whatever verb you so
choose. You can start to use words like read, watch, listen, buy and more in the
stories that get shown to friends of your "engagers.””
— AdAge, 23.09.11,
Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement

41. — Facebook f8, 2011

42. WHAT ROLE DO PEOPLE
PLAY IN YOUR STORY?
“With all content increasingly filtered through social networks, it's what
people do with advertising rather than what they say about it
that will make all the difference this year. Guaranteed”
— AdAge, 16.01.12,
Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance

43. THE GUARDIAN
ON FACEBOOK
ACTION: ”READ”
OBJECT: “ARTICLES”

44. FORD
ON FORD.COM
ACTION: ”CUSTOMISE”
OBJECT: “CARS”

45. HOW DO THE OPEN GRAPH AND
TIMELINE INCREASE REVENUE
PER USER?

46. APPS ENHANCE
FACEBOOK’S DATA SET
“At best, if a company knows which articles you read or what mood you’re in, it can
serve up ads related to your interests. But at worst, it can make decisions on that
basis that negatively affect your life. After you visit a page about Third World
backpacking, an insurance company with access to your Web history might decide to
increase your premium, law professor Jonathan Zittrain suggests.”
— Eli Pariser, 06.11
The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You

47. FACEBOOK KNOWS
WHO YOU ARE, WHAT YOU LIKE
& WHAT YOU ARE DOING (ONLINE)

48. AND THE CLOSER USERS ARE TO
FACEBOOK, THE MORE TARGETED
THEY CAN BE FOR BRANDS
For Valentine’s Day, Facebook Data Team shared the top coupling and de-coupling
songs played by users via the Spotify App
— Huffington Post, 13.02.12,
Facebook Breakup Songs: Data Team Reveals Top Spotify Songs For Breakups,
New Relationships

49. IMPROVED TARGETING
IMPROVES EFFICIENCY
“Facebook Sponsored Stories Ads Have 46% Higher CTR”
— TGB Digital, 16.01.12,
Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful Charts

50. TIMELINE AND OPEN GRAPH
BUILD ON FACEBOOK’S LOCK-IN
STRATEGY

51. BUILDING
DIGITAL IDENTITY
GATHERING
THIRD PARTIES
SPREADING
THE SOCIAL LAYER
2004
Facebook launched
the Profile
2007
Facebook launched
platform applications
2009
Facebook launched
the Like button
1
2
3
+ TIMELINE new
+ OPEN GRAPH new
FACEBOOK

52. WHAT NEXT?
9 “WHAT IF’S?” FROM US

53. #1.
WHAT IF ALL BRAND PAGES
BECOME BRAND TIMELINES?

54. Brands currently use pages to act as social hubs for specific experiences.
Pages become the place where brands highlight different
applications that they have developed for their users.
With Timeline, brands will be able to create a more custom-experience within
the existing template. Multiple pages are yet to be considered, however
Launch Announcement Expected at Feb. 29 Marketer Conference
— AdAge, 15.02.2012,
Facebook to Release Timeline for Brands This Month

55. #2.
WHAT IF YOU COULD TARGET
ADS BASED ON A USERS
DETAILED HISTORY?

56. Actions-Based Ad Targeting: Brands can target a number of things using Facebook’s
existing ad platform – demographic, location, listed interests, etc. But what if you could
target a person’s historic actions? The applications that they use?
The music that they listen to? The news that they read? Etc.
BlackBerry could target all users who read an article
about Power Problems with a specific ads

57. #3.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK SOLD ADS
BASED ON PLATFORM USAGE
ON OTHER SITES?

58. The Facebook Platform is used across hundreds of thousands of websites – from
“Like’ buttons to Facebook logins. Facebook keeps this data and can develop robust
profiles of what their users are looking at, sharing and buying across the web.
Facebook could start to target advertising based on web-actions, not just within
Facebook – for example, target a New York Times reader or Trip Advisor user without
having to work directly with the brand

59. #4.
WHAT IF THE STREAM
PREDICTED FUTURE ACTIONS?

60. The ‘Future Stream’ – As Facebook Graph Rank becomes more action focused,
historic user patterns could help predict future ones. For example, if you go to the
same pub each week or cook the same meals, Facebook could alert your friends to
‘things you might be doing’ in the next few days.

61. #5.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK
CREATES ITS OWN PRODUCT
RECOMMENDATION ENGINE?

62. “Products you may want’ – Facebook already has a ‘People you may know’ and
‘Recommended Pages’ product. Why not use a users content consumption habits,
friend networks and application profiles to develop a product-recommendation tool
similar to Amazon? With social graph data, the recommendations would combine
friend habits along with individual user interests.

63. #6.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK STARTED
PAYING USERS TO MARKET
PRODUCTS?

64. Facebook currently 'piggybacks' on their users actions (via Sponsored Stories) by
providing targeted executions to their friends - why not actively incentivise influential
users to recommend different products?
Though the social graph, Facebook can analyse what categories,
topics and products their users already carry influence in
— Paraphrased from Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea,
The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and the Birth of Hacker Sensibility

65. #7.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK CREDITS
BECOME THE DOMINANT
DIGITAL CURRENCY?

66. Facebook Credits + NFC = True Mobile Wallet – as more and more mobile
devices are NFC-enabled, more retailers will provide terminals that allow for
quick, tap payments. If Facebook continues to be a popular mobile
application, credits could become the easiest way to pay for purchases
— Image credit

67. #8.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK MADE
A ‘PAUSE SHARING’ BUTTON?

68. Turn off ‘frictionless sharing’ – with every application auto-publishing user actions
and a second-by-second Ticker updating, users may quickly tire of having all their
actions shared. Why not give users a clear ‘switch’ to turn their sharing on or off?
— Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011,
Facebook’s open graph needs new approches to privacy

69. #9.
WHAT IF FACEBOOK EXTENDS
ITS AD NETWORK TO OTHER
WEBSITES?

70. Extending Ads Network – Facebook is the most popular social network
website and has one of the biggest set of data.
Facebook could extend its ads network to other websites,
services and devices

71. WHAT DO YOU THINK
FACEBOOK COULD DO NEXT?
Let us know on Twitter by using #fbwhatif
@PublicisModemUK

72. THANKS FOR READING
– Tyler Turnbull,
Joint Head of Planning
tyler.turnbull@publicismodem.com
@tyturnbull
http://gplus.to/tyturnbull
– Damien Le Castrec,
Planner
damien.lecastrec@publicismodem.com
@damienlc
http://gplus.to/damienlc

73. _THANKS FOR THEIR INSPIRATION
 blue_beetle, 26.08.10, metafilter.com
 The Wall Street Journal, 28.01.12, Facebook readies IPO filing
 Daren Herman, 29.11.11, Total Digital Revenues
 The Tennessean, 12.02.12, Facebook sees its growth slowing down
 Business Insider, 05.01.12, Here's How Much A Unique Visitor Is Worth
 The Globe and Mail, 02.02.12, Why Facebook may not be a growth story
 Eli Pariser, 06.11, The Filter Bubble: What the Internet is hiding from You
 TGB Digital, 01.12, Here's Facebook's Q4 Ad Performance In A Set Of Delightful
Charts
 Mark Zuckerberg, f8 2011
 Read Write Web, 14.12.11, Top trends of 2011: Frictionless sharing
 AdAge, 23.09.11, Facebook Just Shifted From Scale to Engagement
 AdAge, 16.01.12, Why Marketers Must Think in Verbs or Face Increasing Irrelevance
 Mashable, 29.09.2011, Why Facebook Timeline Will Be Huge for Brands
 Dan Haggard & his 'Trend Setter' idea, The Social Network, the End of Intimacy, and
the Birth of Hacker Sensibility
 Techland, Harry McCracken, 03.10.2011, Facebook’s open graph needs new
approches to privacy

74. _ABOUT PUBLICIS MODEM
Publicis Modem is a full service digital agency within the Publicis Worldwide
network offering strategy, creative, analytics, user experience, multi-platform (web,
mobile, social, gaming) development, paid media, search, social media and eCRM
services.
With more than 1,500 people deployed across 30 countries around the world,
Publicis Modem is one of the largest and most global digital agencies in the world,
enabling us to serve Fortune 500 brands on a global basis including LG
Electronics, RBS, Visa, Sanofi and General Mills.