SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 50
Example of a one-sample Z-test
The previous lecture in Powerpoint explained the general
procedure for conducting a hypothesis
test. Now let’s go through an example of a hypothesis test to
see how it actually works.
Say you’ve developed a new drug that you think might influence
people’s cognitive ability,
although you aren’t really sure what it will do. (Yes, this is a
really bad study!) You give the
drug to a sample of N = 49 people and then test their IQ. Say
their IQ turns out to be X = 106.
Based on decades of test development, we know that in the
general U.S. population, the mean IQ
question that we want to address
is whether the people who take the “IQ Pill” will have IQ scores
that are different from the
general population (suggesting that the pill had some effect), or
whether they basically look the
same as everybody else in the country (suggesting that the pill
didn’t do anything).
Let’s test this question by using the formal steps of hypothesis
testing:
1.Generate H0 and HA
2.Select statistical procedure
4.Calculate observed statistic for your data
5.Determine critical statistic
6.Compare (4) and (5)
7.If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0
8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0
1. Generate H0 and HA
So what are H0 and HA? We don’t know whether the drug will
make people’s IQs get higher or
lower, so we need to use a 2-tailed or non-directional
hypothesis test. Since the mean in the
general population is 100, we will test whether the mean in our
test group is equal to 100.
treatment group represents. This is a
theoretical population of people who have taken our IQ pill.
Obviously, this population doesn’t
exist in reality, because the only people who have ever taken
our pill are the 49 people who were
in our study. But IN THEORY, a whole lot of other people
could also take this drug, and IN
THEORY, they should respond to it in the same way that our 49
participants respond. So we are
making an inference from our 49 participants to that very large
group of people who in theory
could also have taken this drug.
2.Select statistical procedure
At this point, I’m just going to tell you that the statistical
procedure that you will use is
something called the Z-test. This is a test that is appropriate for
testing whether one sample is
different from some specified value when the value of the
known. Over the next few days, we will be introduced to some
other statistical procedures that
are appropriate for different kinds of situations than this, and
you will need to choose which one
is the best to use.
should understand why a
probability of making a Type I error, or rejecting a null that
should not have been rejected. Most
meaning that there is a 5% chance
of making a Type I error. If this type of mistake has
particularly bad consequences in your study
(e.g., telling people that a very expensive medication is
effective when in fact it is not), then you
For this example, let’s be boring
and go wit
4.Calculate observed statistic for your data
Now we need to compute what is called a test statistic for our
data. For a z-test, the procedure is
to compare the mean of our sample to the mean that we would
have expected if the null
hypotheses was true, divided by the standard error of the mean.
The general formula looks like
this:
Zobt =
0
X
X
N
Using the numbers in our example, we get:
106 100 6
2.80
15 2.14
49
obt
Z
5.Determine critical statistic
Of course, we don’t know whether our test is significant until
we have something to compare our
obtained z to. So we need to compute the critical value of z.
Then, if our observed z exceeds the
critical value, we will be able to reject the null. How do we get
zcrit? Remember, we wanted to
-directional (because we
didn’t know whether the pill would
make people more intelligent or less intelligent). So we need to
find the z-score that will put 5
percent of the z-distribution in the tails beyond that score.
That z-
.025 .025
-1.96 +1.96
6.Compare (4) and (5)
7.If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0
8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0
we conclude? 2.80 is larger than
+1.96, so we can reject the null. Looking at the picture again,
you can see that 2.80 is in the tail
beyond 1.96, so it is in the region of rejection.
Thus, our conclusion is that we can reject H0. But it is not
enough to stop there. Read any
psychology journal and you will find that they NEVER actually
say “we rejected the null
hypothesis.” Rejecting the null isn’t that interesting. What is
interesting is what you can
conclude based on your rejected null. In this case, our
conclusion is that there is evidence that
the “IQ Pill” that you developed has an effect on people’s IQ
scores.
Would it be appropriate to say that there is evidence that people
who took the IQ pill are
smarter? The group mean was 106, which is obviously higher
than the national average of 100,
right?
This is a matter of some disagreement among statisticians.
Technically, our null hypothesis was
set up so that we would have also been able to reject the null if
people had scored six points
LOWER on the IQ test. Say the sample had scored 94 on the IQ
test instead of 106. Then we
would get:
94 100 6
2.80
15 2.14
49
obt
Z
-2.80 is beyond –1.96, so we would also be able to reject the
null in this case. So with a non-
directional or two-tailed null hypotheses, you would be willing
to reject the null hypothesis in
either direction. So technically you should not interpret the
direction of the effect, just that there
was a difference.
However, in the real world, most researchers DO interpret the
direction of the effect even if they
used a two-tailed hypothesis. But if you really wanted to
predict a particular direction, you
should start things off a little bit differently…
.025 .025
-1.96 +1.96 2.80
Using a directional hypothesis test
What if we actually did think from the very beginning that
taking this drug would make people
smarter? In that case, we would have set up a directional null
hypothesis that would test the
theory that people who take the pill will have IQ scores that are
higher than 100. Our hypotheses
would look like this:
Notice that the null hypothesis is that the mean is “less than or
equal to” 100. This is because we
would only reject the null if people’s scores were GREATER
than 100. If it turned out that
people who took the pill got scores of exactly 100 or even lower
than 100, then clearly the drug
is not having the effect we expected it to, and we would not be
able to reject the null. We will
only be able to reject the null if it turns out that people’s IQ
scores after taking the drug are
GREATER than 100.
How else will this change our hypothesis test? Well, now we
will only have a region of rejection
in the upper tail of the distribution, rather than having regions
of rejection in both tails of the
distribution. That means that if we want to keep a = .05, we
will end up putting all of that .05
probability in the upper tail. What is the z-score that puts .05
in tail beyond it? That value is
actually not on your table, but it’s right between two values that
are on the table. The exact z-
score that will put .05 in the tail beyond is z = 1.645. So zcrit
-tailed, is 1.645.
Using a one-tailed test does not change the value of zobt, so
that will still be 2.80. So can we
reject the null? Sure. 2.80 is greater than 1.645, so we can
reject the null. This time, we are able
to conclude that taking the IQ pill is making people smarter.
Example of a non-significant result
What if the IQ pill had a very small effect in our sample? Say
that we set up the 2-tailed, non-
directional null hypothesis that we used for the first example,
except that this time the mean of
the sample was only X = 98. How will this change our test?
Well, we’re back to the original
hypotheses with:
But this time our zobt will also be affected:
98 100 2
.93
15 2.14
49
obt
Z
What can we conclude in this case? Our zobt does not exceed
zcrit , so we cannot reject the null.
The conclusion in this case is that there is no evidence that the
IQ pill has an effect on people’s
IQ scores.
Notice that this is not the same as saying that the IQ pill does
not affect people’s IQs. It is still
possible that it does affect IQ scores, but this particular study
did not provide sufficient evidence
to say that it does. It’s like when OJ Simpson was acquitted of
murdering his wife. We don’t
know for sure that he was innocent of the crime, but we do
know that the evidence that was
presented at the trial was not sufficient to convince the jury
beyond a reasonable doubt that he
actually committed the crime. There was not enough evidence
to prove he was guilty, so it was
concluded that he was not guilty. See how this is not the same
thing as proving that he was
innocent. Maybe OJ should have taken one of the IQ pills that
you developed!
One-sample t-test
In the example with the IQ pill, we used a z-test to determine
whether a group mean is
statistically different from a known population parameter.
With the IQ test, we knew that the standard deviation of the
know that IQ tests have been developed over many years. We
were able to use the z-test because
But most of the time, we are testing things for which we do not
know the standard deviation of
the population. If we don’t know the population standard
deviation, we must estimate it using a
sample. Remember the formula for the standard deviation when
we are estimating a population
value by using a sample:
2
( )
1
X
X X
s
N
The symbol for this is a lower-case s, to indicate that it’s an
estimate.
We had to divide by N-1 in the formula instead of N because if
we didn’t then our estimate
would be biased. If you use the formula where you just divide
by N instead of dividing my N-1,
on average the standard deviation that you compute will tend to
underestimate the true
population value. To adjust for this bias, we divide by N-1.
Doing this will make the standard
deviation estimate a little bigger, adjusting for the bias.
Notice that the bigger your N is, the less it matters that you
have to divide by N-1. The
difference between 5 and 5 - 1 = 4 is pretty big. But the
difference between 50000 and 50000 - 1
= 49999 is practically nothing at all. This is consistent with the
idea that bigger samples will
give us more accurate estimates of the true population standard
deviation.
Now if we want to do a null hypothesis test, the formal steps for
doing it will be the same as
before, except that the formula for the obtained test statistic
we will call this a t-statistic rather than a z-statistic. More on
that in a minute:
tobt = 0
X
X
s
N
Notice that in the formula on the right side, the standard error
of the estimate is still just X
s
N
.
We don’t need to divide by N-1 for this part, because we
already did that when we computed sx.
The null hypothesis test will proceed in the same way that we
did it before, except that now we
can no longer use the z-table to look up probabilities. When we
use a t-statistic instead of a z-
statistic, we must look up probabilities in a t-table, rather than
in a z-table.
Huh? Well, it turns out that the sampling distribution of the
mean is not quite normal when you
use an estimated standard deviation, particularly when your
estimate is based on a small sample.
The probabilities of the z-distribution (e.g., that .05 is beyond
1.645 in the upper tail) are not
quite accurate when you are using an estimated standard
deviation.
Instead of looking up zcrit using the z-table, we need to look up
our critical value using the t-
distribution. The t-distribution is pretty similar to the z-
distribution except that it is a little bit
flatter in the middle, and has more area in the tails.
Also, the t-distribution differs depending on how big your
sample is. More specifically, it varies
depending on how many degrees of freedom you have. For the
t-test of a mean, degrees of
freedom is N-1. Why? Because the t-test uses an estimated
standard deviation. And when you
estimate a standard deviation, you have to divide by N-1.
2
( )
1
X
X X
s
N
When we look up tcrit using the t-table, we will use a different
line on the table depending on how
many degrees of freedom we have. Let’s try an example:
A researcher wanted to know whether smoking cigarettes
reduces olfactory sensitivity (makes
your sense of smell worse). On a test of olfactory sensitivity,
the mean is known to be 18 where
higher scores mean better sensitivity, so the researcher wants to
see whether people who smoke
have olfactory sensitivity scores that are lower than 18. The
researcher collects data from a
sample of 30 smokers and finds that they have a mean score of
X =17.2 and a standard deviation
of sx =1.52. Let’s go through the formal steps of hypothesis
testing:
1.Generate H0 and HA
This is a one-tailed test where we think that scores will be
lower, so the hypotheses are:
2.Select statistical procedure
this time, we need to use a one-sample t-test
4.Calculate observed Z or t for your data
17.2 18.0 .8
2.88
1.52 .27
30
obt
t
5.Determine critical Z or t
Now we need to break out the t-table. How many degrees of
freedom do we have? 30 – 1 = 29.
Since this is a one-tailed test, we look in the t-table column for
the one-tailed test. And since our
alternate hypothesis has a “less than” symbol, that means that
we will need to use a negative
-1.699.
6.Compare (4) and (5)
7.If Zobt or tobt exceeds Zcrit or tcrit, reject H0
8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0
Our obtained t of –2.88 is farther in the tail of the distribution
than our critical t of –1.699, so we
can reject the null. Our conclusion is that smoking does reduce
olfactory sensitivity.
CMGT/400 v7
Security Risk Mitigation Plan Template
CMGT/400 v7
Page 2 of 2Security Risk Mitigation Plan Template
Instructions: Replace the information in brackets [ ] with
information relevant to your project.
A Risk Management Analyst identifies and analyzes potential
issues that could negatively impact a business in order to help
the business avoid or mitigate those risks.
Take on the role of Risk Management Analyst for the
organization you chose in Week 1. Research the following
information about your chosen organization. Create a Security
Risk Mitigation Plan using this template.[Organization Name]
Security Policies and Controls
[Response]
Password Policies
[Response]
Administrator Roles and Responsibilities
[Response]
User Roles and Responsibilities
[Response]
Authentic Strategy
[Response]
Intrusion Detection and Monitoring Strategy
[Response]
Virus Detection Strategies and Protection
[Response]
Auditing Policies and Procedures
[Response]
Education Plan
Develop an education plan for employees on security protocols
and appropriate use.
[Response]
Risk Response
Include: Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation, and Acceptance.
[Response]
Change Management/Version Control
[Response]
Acceptable Use of Organization Assets and Data
[Response]
Employee Policies
Explain the separations of duties and training.
[Response]
Incident Response
Document incident types and category definitions, roles and
responsibilities, reporting requirements and escalation, and
cyber-incident response teams.
[Response]
Incident Response Process
Discuss the incident response process including: preparation,
identification, containment, eradication, recovery, and lessons
learned.
[Response]
Copyright© 2018 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved.
Copyright© 2018 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved.
Probability and Decision Making
Most of the statistics that we have talked about so far involve
describing distributions of samples
or describing relationships within samples. These are examples
of descriptive statistics. But
most of the time, we are actually interested in using the data
from our sample to make an
inference to a population. In that case, we would be doing
inferential statistics.
Inferential statistics are based on the principles of probability.
In order to use a sample to make
an inference about a population, we need to consider the
probability of different events occurring
in the population based on what we observe in our sample.
Before we can do that, we should
start with a (very) brief review of some key terms in probability
The probability of an event occurring [p(A)] is equal to the
relative frequency of the event in the
long run. For example, pass completion average = # passes
completed divided by # passes
attempted. In the 2019 season, Russell Wilson attempted 516
passes, 341 of which were caught.
Thus, we predict that he has a 341/516 = .66 probability of
completing the next pass he throws.
The limits of probability are 0 to 1. Probability of an event
occurring plus probability of an
event not occurring equals 1.0. P(A) + P(not-A) = 1.0.
The rules of probability only apply to random events.
Remember that a random sample
(sometimes called a “probability sample”) requires that all
elements or individuals within the
population have an equal probability of being selected for the
sample.
Probability Distributions
Empirical probability distribution = measured probability. This
is a distribution based on
observation of actual events. Pass completion average is an
example of this. Another example is
in Consumer Reports magazine where they report repair rates of
various automobiles. Car
models with lower repair rates are expected to be less likely to
need repairs in the future.
Theoretical probability distribution = based on theory. This is a
distribution based on
assumptions about the probability of events occurring. It is
NOT based on guessing! Theoretical
probability distributions can be created for events for which we
have very accurate knowledge
about the probability of certain events occurring. For example,
you know that a fair coin has .5
probability of coming up heads. You don’t need to toss a coin a
thousand times to figure this
out, you just compute it by this formula:
# of outcomes that satisfy the event
P(event) =
# of possible outcomes
So for the coin example,
1
.5
2
heads
heads tails
P(rolling a six on a 6-sided die) =
1
.17
6
Independent events are when the occurrence of one event does
not influence the probability of
another event. Examples of this are coin tosses, dice rolls, and
slot machines. (Mistaken beliefs
about “hot dice” or someone being “due” for a jackpot on a
machine that hasn’t paid out in a
while are referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy.)
Dependent events are when the occurrence of one event does
influence the probability of another
event. Card games like Blackjack and poker are based on
dependent events, because once
certain cards have been dealt, they cannot be dealt again in that
cycle.
Sampling with replacement is when the selected sample is
returned to the population before the
next sample is drawn.
Sampling without replacement is when the selected sample is
not returned to the population
before subsequent samples are drawn. The probability of events
occurring changes with the new
samples. For example, say you have a raffle with three prizes.
First prize winner is not eligible
for the other two prizes, second winner is not eligible for the
third prize.
If they sell 100 tickets:
P(1st prize) = 1/100
P(2nd prize) = 1/99
P(3rd prize) = 1/98
Probability and the Standard Normal Curve
The standard normal curve is a theoretical probability
distribution. It specifies the theoretical
probability of having certain values within a distribution. We
can use the normal curve to
determine probabilities associated with events that are
approximately normally distributed.
Say IQ scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a
standard deviation of 15. (this
is pretty much true.)
What’s the probability of drawing one person at random from
the population who has an IQ of at
least 110 (or higher)? To answer this, we need to compute a z-
score for that person:
110 100
.67
15
X
X
X
Z
Looking in the Z-table, we see that the probability of having a
Z-score of .67 or greater (area in
the tail above) is p = .2514. So there is about a 25% chance of
randomly grabbing a person with
an IQ of 110 or greater from the population with a mean of 100
and standard deviation of 15.
What we just did refers to determining probability of single
observations. But often we want to
know probabilities associated with means.
What’s the probability of drawing a random sample of 16 people
who have a mean IQ of at least
110? You might guess that this probability will be smaller than
the probability of getting just
one person with an IQ of at least 110. Of course, some of these
16 people could have IQs of less
than 110, but then some would need to have IQs of greater than
110 to balance it out, so that the
group mean is at least 110.
In order to answer this question, you need to remember what we
talked about back before Test 1,
sampling distributions.
A sampling distribution of the mean is a theoretical distribution.
It is based on what the
distribution of means would look like if you took an infinite
number of samples of size N from
the population. We never actually bother to do that (who has
time?) but we know that if we did,
in theory, the distribution would have some specific properties.
Remember that a sampling distribution has a Mean and
variability. The Mean of the sampling
distribution is equal to
distribution is smaller than the
variability of the population.
The variability of the sampling distribution is called the
Standard Error. In this case, because we
are calculating estimates of the Mean, the variability is the
Standard Error of the Mean.
Note that this is different than the Standard Deviation of the
sample or the population. (It is also
different than the Standard error of the estimate that we learned
about with regression. I wish
these terms didn’t all sound so similar. But the difference
between them all is very important, so
pay attention and be careful!).
Standard Error of the Mean is the variability of the sampling
distribution of Means. It is the
standard deviation of the sampling distribution of means.
Because of the Central Limit Theorem, we know the following
things:
Any given sample mean will
2) If you took an infinite number of samples of size N, the
standard error of the mean (i.e.,
the standard Deviation of the sampling distribution of means)
would be:
X
X
N
What that means is that the variability of the sampling
distribution is smaller when your
samples are bigger. Bigger samples mean you are more likely
to get a good (accurate)
estimate of the true population Mean.
3) As the size of the sample increases, the shape of the sampling
distribution of the mean
will approach normal. What’s really amazing is that this is true
even if the shape of the
original distribution is not normal.
Because of the central limit theorem, we can use a single
sample of size N to estimate properties
of the sampling distribution (rather than actually needing to
take an infinite number of samples).
OK, so now that you know about the sampling distribution of
means, we can get back to our
earlier question about how to determine the probability of
getting a sample of N = 16 people who
have an average IQ of at least 110.
We’re going to create a Z-score like we did before, except that
now we will create a Z-score
and N = 10. Instead of
comparing one person’s score (X) to the sample mean, we will
be comparing the sample mean to
the mean of the population. Instead of dividing by the standard
deviation of X, we will divide by
the standard error of the estimate. The general formula for the
Z-score will be:
X
X
X
Z
X
X
N
For our example,
110 100 10
2.67
15 3.75
16
Z
What’s the probability of getting a Z-score of 2.67 or greater?
Look in the table, p = .0038. It is
a LOT less likely that we would get a sample of 16 people with
a mean IQ of 110 than it is that
we would get one single person with an IQ of 110 (p = .2514).
Deciding whether a sample represents a population
So, if the probability of getting 16 people with a mean IQ of at
least 110 just by chance is only
.0038, that might make you start thinking that maybe there is
something other than just chance
operating here. Maybe those 16 people weren’t actually
randomly sampled from a population
with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. Maybe
those 16 people do not represent the
general population of people in the U.S. Maybe they actually
represent some other population,
such a population of college students who have higher than
average IQs.
We get suspicious about the representativeness of the sample
because the probability of
obtaining a sample with those characteristics (mean IQ of 110)
is very unlikely if those people
were really just randomly sampled from the general population
what exactly do we mean by very unlikely? How unlikely does
an event have to be before we
start getting suspicious?
Suppose that the sample of 16 people we drew only had a mean
IQ of 101. Would we be
suspicious that they were not really representative of the
general population? Let’s see:
101 100 1
.27
15 3.75
16
Z
.3936.
If there’s a 39% chance that we could have found 16 people
with a mean IQ of 101, it doesn’t
seem so strange that it could have happened just by chance.
So what probability do we want to use as our cutoff for “too
unlikely?” Well, the conventional
level in social sciences is usually p = .05 or less (that is, p <
.05).
Often, it is easier to think about this in the opposite way, by
asking what is the Z-score that will
give us exactly 5% probability in the tails of the distribution?
This is referred to as the critical
value.
One important question is whether we just want our 5% to be in
one tail of the distribution or
whether we want it to be divided up between the top and bottom
end of the distribution. In this
case, we probably would have been just as surprised if we
randomly sampled a group of 16
people and found that they had an average IQ of 90 (10 points
below the mean instead of 10
points above the mean). So we would think things are very
unlikely if they happened to be much
higher than average as well as much lower than average. So we
will split our 5% up between the
two tails of the distribution.
If we have 5% split up between the two ends of the distribution,
that means we have 2.5% or
.025 in each tail of the distribution. Let’s find the critical
value. What is the Z-score that has
–1.96
or greater than +1.96) as the
region of rejection. If we end up getting a sample that gives us
a Z-score that is in the region of
rejection, we will conclude that it is too unlikely that this could
have happened just by random
chance. There must be something else going on, such as the
group we sampled not actually
being representative of the general population.
And this leads us right into the topic of hypothesis testing,
which we’ll discuss next.
.025 .025
-1.96 +1.96
1
Null
Hypothesis
Significance
Testing
Hypothesis Testing
de if an observed result is unlikely to have
occurred by chance
procedure
not random
eally p < .05!
Hypotheses
under investigation.
Hypothesis (H1)
Null Hypothesis (H0)
value
Alternative Hypothesis (H1)
he population parameter is some alternative
range of values
hypothesis
Examples of Null and Alternate
Hypotheses
did have an effect)
2
Nondirectional Hypothesis
-tailed
ed if test statistic is much higher OR
lower than prediction
Directional Hypothesis
-tailed
is much higher than prediction
y if willing to ignore an extreme value in opposite
direction from what is expected
How to test a null Hypothesis
distribution
sample could have
been drawn if H0 was actually true?
Declaring Statistical Significance
just by chance if H0 was actually true…
– you REJECT
the null
Statistical Significance
to chance if the null were true
Practical Significance
meaning
ant may not be practically meaningful
(and vice-versa)
3
Test Statistic
from the parameter specified in H0
Critical Value
the desired alpha
level (region of rejection)
Hypothesis Testing: Formal Steps
1. Generate H0 and H1
2. Select statistical procedure (z, t, etc)
3. Select a
4. Calculate observed statistic for your data
5. Determine critical value
6. Compare (4) and (5)
7. If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0
8. Otherwise, fail to reject H0
Truth of the Universe
H0 True (no effect) H0 False(effect exists)
Do not reject H0
(say there is no
effect)
Type I error
a
Correct
Decision
1 - b
Type II error
b
Correct
Decision
1 - a
Your Decision
Reject H0
(say the
effect exists)
universe
decision probabilities
sum to 1.0
An analogy with the legal system
proven guilty”
crime”
reject the null = “not guilty”
4
What really happened
H0 True (Didn’t do it) H0 False (did it)
Do not reject H0
(Not guilty)
Innocent person is
convicted
Type I error
Guilty person is
convicted
Correct decision
Guilty person
gets off
Type II error
Innocent person
goes home
Correct decision
Jury Decision
Reject H0
(guilty verdict)
Psychology 302, Winter 2020
Correlational Approaches to Research
Problem Set 4, due Wednesday, March 4th in class
1. For each of the following, determine whether the decision
reached by the
researcher in the first sentence is correct, given the information
in the
subsequent sentences. If the decision is incorrect, indicate what
type of
error was made.
a. Based on an initial test, a medical researcher concluded that
Serum A was not effective for treating a disease. However, 25
years later, many subsequent studies have found that Serum A
is effective, and it is now used regularly to treat the disease.
b. A researcher who studied literacy concluded that children
who
were raised by parents who read to them regularly learned to
read earlier than children whose parents did not read to them.
This finding has been consistently demonstrated in subsequent
studies over many years.
c. Researchers originally claimed that students who were
homeschooled performed worse in college compared to students
with public education. However, over many years, studies have
subsequently shown that home schooled children perform
equally well in college as public school students.
d. A researcher found that adults who followed a low fat diet
did
not lose any more weight compared to adults who were not
dieting. Several years of subsequent research have shown that
low fat diets are not effective compared to not dieting.
For problems 2-4, use the logic of hypothesis testing to answer
the research
question posed. Be sure to go through each of the formal steps.
Clearly
state your null and alternate hypotheses, your obtained and
critical
statistics, and whether you can reject the null. Be sure to
clearly state your
conclusions in words.
2. A researcher is testing the effectiveness of a new drug that is
intended to
improve learning and memory performance. A random sample
of 16 rats
are given the drug and then tested on a standard learning task.
The
mean of the sample is 56.5. In the general population of rats
(with no
drug), the average score on the standardized test is normally
distributed
Is there
3. You notice that a lot of students listen to music while
studying at the
library, and you suspect that this may be detrimental to their
learning.
You take a random sample of Intro Psychology students who
listen to
music while studying and you measure their scores on the Intro
Psych
final exam. In the population of ALL intro psych students, the
final exam
deviation
-listening students, the
mean
was X = 76.15. Is there evidence to conclude that listening to
music is
detrime
4. A common reading achievement test for fifth grade students
has a
students
who receive a new type of reading skills training are
significantly different
from the national average, but she doesn’t know whether they’re
likely to
be better or worse than average. She trains her class of N = 31
students
with the new technique and then gives them the test. The class
average
is X = 72.9 with a standard deviation of Sx= 7.5.
a. Using the formal logic of null hypothesis testing, test whether
Explain
why you reached a different conclusion depending on what
alpha
level you used.

More Related Content

Similar to Example of a one-sample Z-test The previous lecture in P.docx

7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docxtaishao1
 
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docxevonnehoggarth79783
 
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...Professional Training Academy
 
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docx
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docxPage 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docx
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docxkarlhennesey
 
Steps in hypothesis.pptx
Steps in hypothesis.pptxSteps in hypothesis.pptx
Steps in hypothesis.pptxYashwanth Rm
 
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testingrishi.indian
 
Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing
Hypothesis testingpraveen3030
 
Sci Method Notes
Sci Method NotesSci Method Notes
Sci Method Noteslkarpiak
 
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013calculistictt
 
PAGE O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docx
PAGE  O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docxPAGE  O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docx
PAGE O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docxgerardkortney
 
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docx
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docxInferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docx
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docxwrite4
 
hypothesis testing overview
hypothesis testing overviewhypothesis testing overview
hypothesis testing overviewi i
 
Hypothesis testing in statistics
Hypothesis testing in statisticsHypothesis testing in statistics
Hypothesis testing in statisticsMuhammadFardeen4
 
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing
Hypothesis TestingSampath
 
Module 2 research strategies how psychologists ask and answer questions
Module 2 research strategies  how psychologists ask and answer questionsModule 2 research strategies  how psychologists ask and answer questions
Module 2 research strategies how psychologists ask and answer questionsTina Medley
 
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docx
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docxBUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docx
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docxcurwenmichaela
 

Similar to Example of a one-sample Z-test The previous lecture in P.docx (20)

4_5875144622430228750.docx
4_5875144622430228750.docx4_5875144622430228750.docx
4_5875144622430228750.docx
 
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
 
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
7 HYPOTHETICALS AND YOU TESTING YOUR QUESTIONS7 MEDIA LIBRARY.docx
 
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...
Risk Management - CH 7 - Hypothesis Tests and Confidence | CMT Level 3 | Char...
 
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docx
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docxPage 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docx
Page 266LEARNING OBJECTIVES· Explain how researchers use inf.docx
 
Steps in hypothesis.pptx
Steps in hypothesis.pptxSteps in hypothesis.pptx
Steps in hypothesis.pptx
 
Hypothesis
HypothesisHypothesis
Hypothesis
 
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
 
Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing
 
Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing
Hypothesis testing
 
Sci Method Notes
Sci Method NotesSci Method Notes
Sci Method Notes
 
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013
Chapter 20 and 21 combined testing hypotheses about proportions 2013
 
PAGE O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docx
PAGE  O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docxPAGE  O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docx
PAGE O&M Statistics – Inferential Statistics Hypothesis Test.docx
 
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docx
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docxInferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docx
Inferential include one or more of the inferential statistical procedures.docx
 
hypothesis testing overview
hypothesis testing overviewhypothesis testing overview
hypothesis testing overview
 
Hypothesis testing in statistics
Hypothesis testing in statisticsHypothesis testing in statistics
Hypothesis testing in statistics
 
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing
Hypothesis Testing
 
Module 2 research strategies how psychologists ask and answer questions
Module 2 research strategies  how psychologists ask and answer questionsModule 2 research strategies  how psychologists ask and answer questions
Module 2 research strategies how psychologists ask and answer questions
 
L hypo testing
L hypo testingL hypo testing
L hypo testing
 
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docx
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docxBUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docx
BUS308 – Week 5 Lecture 1 A Different View Expected Ou.docx
 

More from elbanglis

Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docx
Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docxExplore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docx
Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docxelbanglis
 
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docx
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docxExperiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docx
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docxelbanglis
 
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docx
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docxExperimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docx
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docxelbanglis
 
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docx
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docxExplain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docx
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docxelbanglis
 
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docx
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docxExplain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docx
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docxelbanglis
 
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docx
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docxExperience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docx
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docxelbanglis
 
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docx
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docxExpansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docx
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docxelbanglis
 
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docx
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docxExperimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docx
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docxelbanglis
 
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docx
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docxEXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docx
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docxelbanglis
 
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docx
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docxExperiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docx
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docxelbanglis
 
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation 1 EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docx
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation  1  EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docxEXP4304.521F19 Motivation  1  EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docx
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation 1 EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docxelbanglis
 
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docx
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docxEXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docx
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docxelbanglis
 
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docx
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docxExercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docx
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docxelbanglis
 
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docx
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docxExercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docx
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docxelbanglis
 
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docx
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docxExercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docx
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docxelbanglis
 
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docx
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docxExercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docx
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docxelbanglis
 
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docx
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docxExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docx
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docxelbanglis
 
Exercise Question #1 Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docx
Exercise Question #1  Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docxExercise Question #1  Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docx
Exercise Question #1 Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docxelbanglis
 
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docx
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docxExecutive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docx
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docxelbanglis
 
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docx
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docxExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docx
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docxelbanglis
 

More from elbanglis (20)

Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docx
Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docxExplore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docx
Explore the Issue PapersYou will choose a topic from the Complet.docx
 
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docx
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docxExperiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docx
Experiencing Intercultural CommunicationAn Introduction6th e.docx
 
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docx
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docxExperimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docx
Experimental and Quasi-Experimental DesignsChapter 5.docx
 
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docx
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docxExplain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docx
Explain the role of the community health nurse in partnership with.docx
 
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docx
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docxExplain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docx
Explain how building partner capacity is the greatest challenge in.docx
 
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docx
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docxExperience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docx
Experience as a Computer ScientistFor this report, the pro.docx
 
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docx
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docxExpansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docx
Expansion and Isolationism in Eurasia How did approaches t.docx
 
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docx
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docxExperimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docx
Experimental PsychologyWriting and PresentingPaper Secti.docx
 
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docx
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docxEXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docx
EXPEDIA VS. PRICELINE -- WHOSE MEDIA PLAN TO BOOK Optim.docx
 
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docx
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docxExperiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docx
Experiments with duckweed–moth systems suggest thatglobal wa.docx
 
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation 1 EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docx
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation  1  EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docxEXP4304.521F19 Motivation  1  EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docx
EXP4304.521F19 Motivation 1 EXP4304.521F19 Motivatio.docx
 
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docx
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docxEXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docx
EXPERIMENT 1 OBSERVATION OF MITOSIS IN A PLANT CELLData Table.docx
 
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docx
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docxExercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docx
Exercise Package 2 Systems and its properties (Tip Alwa.docx
 
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docx
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docxExercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docx
Exercises for Chapter 8 Exercises III Reflective ListeningRef.docx
 
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docx
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docxExercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docx
Exercise 9-08On July 1, 2019, Sheridan Company purchased new equ.docx
 
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docx
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docxExercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docx
Exercise 1 – Three-Phase, Variable-Frequency Induction-Motor D.docx
 
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docx
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docxExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docx
ExemplaryVery GoodProficientOpportunity for ImprovementU.docx
 
Exercise Question #1 Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docx
Exercise Question #1  Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docxExercise Question #1  Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docx
Exercise Question #1 Highlight your table in Excel. Copy the ta.docx
 
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docx
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docxExecutive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docx
Executive SummaryXYZ Development, LLC has requested ASU Geotechn.docx
 
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docx
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docxExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docx
ExemplaryProficientProgressingEmergingElement (1) Respo.docx
 

Recently uploaded

Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfSanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfsanyamsingh5019
 
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfBASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfSoniaTolstoy
 
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxThe basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxheathfieldcps1
 
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  ) Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  )
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application ) Sakshi Ghasle
 
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxHow to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxmanuelaromero2013
 
MENTAL STATUS EXAMINATION format.docx
MENTAL     STATUS EXAMINATION format.docxMENTAL     STATUS EXAMINATION format.docx
MENTAL STATUS EXAMINATION format.docxPoojaSen20
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxpboyjonauth
 
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Krashi Coaching
 
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxContemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxRoyAbrique
 
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...Marc Dusseiller Dusjagr
 
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxPOINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxSayali Powar
 
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactAccessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactdawncurless
 
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformA Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformChameera Dedduwage
 
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppURLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppCeline George
 
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon ACrayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon AUnboundStockton
 
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptx
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptxEmployee wellbeing at the workplace.pptx
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptxNirmalaLoungPoorunde1
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfSanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
 
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSDStaff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
Staff of Color (SOC) Retention Efforts DDSD
 
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdfBASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK  LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
BASLIQ CURRENT LOOKBOOK LOOKBOOK(1) (1).pdf
 
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxThe basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
 
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  ) Hybridoma Technology  ( Production , Purification , and Application  )
Hybridoma Technology ( Production , Purification , and Application )
 
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptxHow to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
How to Make a Pirate ship Primary Education.pptx
 
MENTAL STATUS EXAMINATION format.docx
MENTAL     STATUS EXAMINATION format.docxMENTAL     STATUS EXAMINATION format.docx
MENTAL STATUS EXAMINATION format.docx
 
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptxIntroduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
Introduction to AI in Higher Education_draft.pptx
 
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
 
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptxContemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
Contemporary philippine arts from the regions_PPT_Module_12 [Autosaved] (1).pptx
 
Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
 
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
“Oh GOSH! Reflecting on Hackteria's Collaborative Practices in a Global Do-It...
 
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxPOINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
 
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impactAccessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
Accessible design: Minimum effort, maximum impact
 
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformA Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
 
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website AppURLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
URLs and Routing in the Odoo 17 Website App
 
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon ACrayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
Crayon Activity Handout For the Crayon A
 
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdfTataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
TataKelola dan KamSiber Kecerdasan Buatan v022.pdf
 
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
Model Call Girl in Tilak Nagar Delhi reach out to us at 🔝9953056974🔝
 
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptx
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptxEmployee wellbeing at the workplace.pptx
Employee wellbeing at the workplace.pptx
 

Example of a one-sample Z-test The previous lecture in P.docx

  • 1. Example of a one-sample Z-test The previous lecture in Powerpoint explained the general procedure for conducting a hypothesis test. Now let’s go through an example of a hypothesis test to see how it actually works. Say you’ve developed a new drug that you think might influence people’s cognitive ability, although you aren’t really sure what it will do. (Yes, this is a really bad study!) You give the drug to a sample of N = 49 people and then test their IQ. Say their IQ turns out to be X = 106. Based on decades of test development, we know that in the general U.S. population, the mean IQ question that we want to address is whether the people who take the “IQ Pill” will have IQ scores that are different from the general population (suggesting that the pill had some effect), or whether they basically look the
  • 2. same as everybody else in the country (suggesting that the pill didn’t do anything). Let’s test this question by using the formal steps of hypothesis testing: 1.Generate H0 and HA 2.Select statistical procedure 4.Calculate observed statistic for your data 5.Determine critical statistic 6.Compare (4) and (5) 7.If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0 8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0 1. Generate H0 and HA So what are H0 and HA? We don’t know whether the drug will make people’s IQs get higher or lower, so we need to use a 2-tailed or non-directional hypothesis test. Since the mean in the general population is 100, we will test whether the mean in our test group is equal to 100.
  • 3. treatment group represents. This is a theoretical population of people who have taken our IQ pill. Obviously, this population doesn’t exist in reality, because the only people who have ever taken our pill are the 49 people who were in our study. But IN THEORY, a whole lot of other people could also take this drug, and IN THEORY, they should respond to it in the same way that our 49 participants respond. So we are making an inference from our 49 participants to that very large group of people who in theory could also have taken this drug. 2.Select statistical procedure At this point, I’m just going to tell you that the statistical procedure that you will use is something called the Z-test. This is a test that is appropriate for testing whether one sample is different from some specified value when the value of the
  • 4. known. Over the next few days, we will be introduced to some other statistical procedures that are appropriate for different kinds of situations than this, and you will need to choose which one is the best to use. should understand why a probability of making a Type I error, or rejecting a null that should not have been rejected. Most meaning that there is a 5% chance of making a Type I error. If this type of mistake has particularly bad consequences in your study (e.g., telling people that a very expensive medication is effective when in fact it is not), then you For this example, let’s be boring and go wit
  • 5. 4.Calculate observed statistic for your data Now we need to compute what is called a test statistic for our data. For a z-test, the procedure is to compare the mean of our sample to the mean that we would have expected if the null hypotheses was true, divided by the standard error of the mean. The general formula looks like this: Zobt = 0 X X N Using the numbers in our example, we get: 106 100 6
  • 6. 2.80 15 2.14 49 obt Z 5.Determine critical statistic Of course, we don’t know whether our test is significant until we have something to compare our obtained z to. So we need to compute the critical value of z. Then, if our observed z exceeds the critical value, we will be able to reject the null. How do we get zcrit? Remember, we wanted to -directional (because we didn’t know whether the pill would make people more intelligent or less intelligent). So we need to find the z-score that will put 5 percent of the z-distribution in the tails beyond that score. That z-
  • 7. .025 .025 -1.96 +1.96 6.Compare (4) and (5) 7.If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0 8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0 we conclude? 2.80 is larger than +1.96, so we can reject the null. Looking at the picture again, you can see that 2.80 is in the tail beyond 1.96, so it is in the region of rejection.
  • 8. Thus, our conclusion is that we can reject H0. But it is not enough to stop there. Read any psychology journal and you will find that they NEVER actually say “we rejected the null hypothesis.” Rejecting the null isn’t that interesting. What is interesting is what you can conclude based on your rejected null. In this case, our conclusion is that there is evidence that the “IQ Pill” that you developed has an effect on people’s IQ scores. Would it be appropriate to say that there is evidence that people who took the IQ pill are smarter? The group mean was 106, which is obviously higher than the national average of 100, right? This is a matter of some disagreement among statisticians. Technically, our null hypothesis was set up so that we would have also been able to reject the null if people had scored six points LOWER on the IQ test. Say the sample had scored 94 on the IQ test instead of 106. Then we would get:
  • 9. 94 100 6 2.80 15 2.14 49 obt Z -2.80 is beyond –1.96, so we would also be able to reject the null in this case. So with a non- directional or two-tailed null hypotheses, you would be willing to reject the null hypothesis in either direction. So technically you should not interpret the direction of the effect, just that there was a difference. However, in the real world, most researchers DO interpret the direction of the effect even if they used a two-tailed hypothesis. But if you really wanted to predict a particular direction, you should start things off a little bit differently…
  • 10. .025 .025 -1.96 +1.96 2.80 Using a directional hypothesis test What if we actually did think from the very beginning that taking this drug would make people smarter? In that case, we would have set up a directional null hypothesis that would test the theory that people who take the pill will have IQ scores that are higher than 100. Our hypotheses would look like this: Notice that the null hypothesis is that the mean is “less than or equal to” 100. This is because we would only reject the null if people’s scores were GREATER than 100. If it turned out that people who took the pill got scores of exactly 100 or even lower than 100, then clearly the drug is not having the effect we expected it to, and we would not be able to reject the null. We will only be able to reject the null if it turns out that people’s IQ scores after taking the drug are
  • 11. GREATER than 100. How else will this change our hypothesis test? Well, now we will only have a region of rejection in the upper tail of the distribution, rather than having regions of rejection in both tails of the distribution. That means that if we want to keep a = .05, we will end up putting all of that .05 probability in the upper tail. What is the z-score that puts .05 in tail beyond it? That value is actually not on your table, but it’s right between two values that are on the table. The exact z- score that will put .05 in the tail beyond is z = 1.645. So zcrit -tailed, is 1.645. Using a one-tailed test does not change the value of zobt, so that will still be 2.80. So can we reject the null? Sure. 2.80 is greater than 1.645, so we can reject the null. This time, we are able to conclude that taking the IQ pill is making people smarter. Example of a non-significant result What if the IQ pill had a very small effect in our sample? Say
  • 12. that we set up the 2-tailed, non- directional null hypothesis that we used for the first example, except that this time the mean of the sample was only X = 98. How will this change our test? Well, we’re back to the original hypotheses with: But this time our zobt will also be affected: 98 100 2 .93 15 2.14 49 obt Z What can we conclude in this case? Our zobt does not exceed zcrit , so we cannot reject the null. The conclusion in this case is that there is no evidence that the IQ pill has an effect on people’s IQ scores.
  • 13. Notice that this is not the same as saying that the IQ pill does not affect people’s IQs. It is still possible that it does affect IQ scores, but this particular study did not provide sufficient evidence to say that it does. It’s like when OJ Simpson was acquitted of murdering his wife. We don’t know for sure that he was innocent of the crime, but we do know that the evidence that was presented at the trial was not sufficient to convince the jury beyond a reasonable doubt that he actually committed the crime. There was not enough evidence to prove he was guilty, so it was concluded that he was not guilty. See how this is not the same thing as proving that he was innocent. Maybe OJ should have taken one of the IQ pills that you developed! One-sample t-test In the example with the IQ pill, we used a z-test to determine whether a group mean is
  • 14. statistically different from a known population parameter. With the IQ test, we knew that the standard deviation of the know that IQ tests have been developed over many years. We were able to use the z-test because But most of the time, we are testing things for which we do not know the standard deviation of the population. If we don’t know the population standard deviation, we must estimate it using a sample. Remember the formula for the standard deviation when we are estimating a population value by using a sample: 2 ( ) 1 X X X s N
  • 15. The symbol for this is a lower-case s, to indicate that it’s an estimate. We had to divide by N-1 in the formula instead of N because if we didn’t then our estimate would be biased. If you use the formula where you just divide by N instead of dividing my N-1, on average the standard deviation that you compute will tend to underestimate the true population value. To adjust for this bias, we divide by N-1. Doing this will make the standard deviation estimate a little bigger, adjusting for the bias. Notice that the bigger your N is, the less it matters that you have to divide by N-1. The difference between 5 and 5 - 1 = 4 is pretty big. But the difference between 50000 and 50000 - 1 = 49999 is practically nothing at all. This is consistent with the idea that bigger samples will give us more accurate estimates of the true population standard
  • 16. deviation. Now if we want to do a null hypothesis test, the formal steps for doing it will be the same as before, except that the formula for the obtained test statistic we will call this a t-statistic rather than a z-statistic. More on that in a minute: tobt = 0 X X s N Notice that in the formula on the right side, the standard error of the estimate is still just X s N .
  • 17. We don’t need to divide by N-1 for this part, because we already did that when we computed sx. The null hypothesis test will proceed in the same way that we did it before, except that now we can no longer use the z-table to look up probabilities. When we use a t-statistic instead of a z- statistic, we must look up probabilities in a t-table, rather than in a z-table. Huh? Well, it turns out that the sampling distribution of the mean is not quite normal when you use an estimated standard deviation, particularly when your estimate is based on a small sample. The probabilities of the z-distribution (e.g., that .05 is beyond 1.645 in the upper tail) are not quite accurate when you are using an estimated standard deviation. Instead of looking up zcrit using the z-table, we need to look up our critical value using the t- distribution. The t-distribution is pretty similar to the z- distribution except that it is a little bit flatter in the middle, and has more area in the tails.
  • 18. Also, the t-distribution differs depending on how big your sample is. More specifically, it varies depending on how many degrees of freedom you have. For the t-test of a mean, degrees of freedom is N-1. Why? Because the t-test uses an estimated standard deviation. And when you estimate a standard deviation, you have to divide by N-1. 2 ( ) 1 X X X s N When we look up tcrit using the t-table, we will use a different line on the table depending on how
  • 19. many degrees of freedom we have. Let’s try an example: A researcher wanted to know whether smoking cigarettes reduces olfactory sensitivity (makes your sense of smell worse). On a test of olfactory sensitivity, the mean is known to be 18 where higher scores mean better sensitivity, so the researcher wants to see whether people who smoke have olfactory sensitivity scores that are lower than 18. The researcher collects data from a sample of 30 smokers and finds that they have a mean score of X =17.2 and a standard deviation of sx =1.52. Let’s go through the formal steps of hypothesis testing: 1.Generate H0 and HA This is a one-tailed test where we think that scores will be lower, so the hypotheses are: 2.Select statistical procedure
  • 20. this time, we need to use a one-sample t-test 4.Calculate observed Z or t for your data 17.2 18.0 .8 2.88 1.52 .27 30 obt t 5.Determine critical Z or t Now we need to break out the t-table. How many degrees of freedom do we have? 30 – 1 = 29. Since this is a one-tailed test, we look in the t-table column for the one-tailed test. And since our alternate hypothesis has a “less than” symbol, that means that we will need to use a negative -1.699.
  • 21. 6.Compare (4) and (5) 7.If Zobt or tobt exceeds Zcrit or tcrit, reject H0 8.Otherwise, fail to reject H0 Our obtained t of –2.88 is farther in the tail of the distribution than our critical t of –1.699, so we can reject the null. Our conclusion is that smoking does reduce olfactory sensitivity. CMGT/400 v7 Security Risk Mitigation Plan Template CMGT/400 v7 Page 2 of 2Security Risk Mitigation Plan Template Instructions: Replace the information in brackets [ ] with information relevant to your project. A Risk Management Analyst identifies and analyzes potential issues that could negatively impact a business in order to help the business avoid or mitigate those risks. Take on the role of Risk Management Analyst for the organization you chose in Week 1. Research the following information about your chosen organization. Create a Security Risk Mitigation Plan using this template.[Organization Name] Security Policies and Controls [Response]
  • 22. Password Policies [Response] Administrator Roles and Responsibilities [Response] User Roles and Responsibilities [Response] Authentic Strategy [Response] Intrusion Detection and Monitoring Strategy [Response] Virus Detection Strategies and Protection [Response] Auditing Policies and Procedures [Response] Education Plan Develop an education plan for employees on security protocols and appropriate use. [Response] Risk Response Include: Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation, and Acceptance. [Response] Change Management/Version Control [Response] Acceptable Use of Organization Assets and Data [Response]
  • 23. Employee Policies Explain the separations of duties and training. [Response] Incident Response Document incident types and category definitions, roles and responsibilities, reporting requirements and escalation, and cyber-incident response teams. [Response] Incident Response Process Discuss the incident response process including: preparation, identification, containment, eradication, recovery, and lessons learned. [Response] Copyright© 2018 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. Copyright© 2018 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. Probability and Decision Making Most of the statistics that we have talked about so far involve describing distributions of samples or describing relationships within samples. These are examples of descriptive statistics. But most of the time, we are actually interested in using the data from our sample to make an inference to a population. In that case, we would be doing inferential statistics.
  • 24. Inferential statistics are based on the principles of probability. In order to use a sample to make an inference about a population, we need to consider the probability of different events occurring in the population based on what we observe in our sample. Before we can do that, we should start with a (very) brief review of some key terms in probability The probability of an event occurring [p(A)] is equal to the relative frequency of the event in the long run. For example, pass completion average = # passes completed divided by # passes attempted. In the 2019 season, Russell Wilson attempted 516 passes, 341 of which were caught. Thus, we predict that he has a 341/516 = .66 probability of completing the next pass he throws. The limits of probability are 0 to 1. Probability of an event occurring plus probability of an event not occurring equals 1.0. P(A) + P(not-A) = 1.0. The rules of probability only apply to random events. Remember that a random sample (sometimes called a “probability sample”) requires that all
  • 25. elements or individuals within the population have an equal probability of being selected for the sample. Probability Distributions Empirical probability distribution = measured probability. This is a distribution based on observation of actual events. Pass completion average is an example of this. Another example is in Consumer Reports magazine where they report repair rates of various automobiles. Car models with lower repair rates are expected to be less likely to need repairs in the future. Theoretical probability distribution = based on theory. This is a distribution based on assumptions about the probability of events occurring. It is NOT based on guessing! Theoretical probability distributions can be created for events for which we have very accurate knowledge about the probability of certain events occurring. For example, you know that a fair coin has .5 probability of coming up heads. You don’t need to toss a coin a thousand times to figure this
  • 26. out, you just compute it by this formula: # of outcomes that satisfy the event P(event) = # of possible outcomes So for the coin example, 1 .5 2 heads heads tails P(rolling a six on a 6-sided die) = 1 .17 6
  • 27. Independent events are when the occurrence of one event does not influence the probability of another event. Examples of this are coin tosses, dice rolls, and slot machines. (Mistaken beliefs about “hot dice” or someone being “due” for a jackpot on a machine that hasn’t paid out in a while are referred to as the Gambler’s Fallacy.) Dependent events are when the occurrence of one event does influence the probability of another event. Card games like Blackjack and poker are based on dependent events, because once certain cards have been dealt, they cannot be dealt again in that cycle. Sampling with replacement is when the selected sample is returned to the population before the next sample is drawn. Sampling without replacement is when the selected sample is not returned to the population before subsequent samples are drawn. The probability of events occurring changes with the new samples. For example, say you have a raffle with three prizes. First prize winner is not eligible
  • 28. for the other two prizes, second winner is not eligible for the third prize. If they sell 100 tickets: P(1st prize) = 1/100 P(2nd prize) = 1/99 P(3rd prize) = 1/98 Probability and the Standard Normal Curve The standard normal curve is a theoretical probability distribution. It specifies the theoretical probability of having certain values within a distribution. We can use the normal curve to determine probabilities associated with events that are approximately normally distributed. Say IQ scores are normally distributed with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. (this is pretty much true.) What’s the probability of drawing one person at random from the population who has an IQ of at
  • 29. least 110 (or higher)? To answer this, we need to compute a z- score for that person: 110 100 .67 15 X X X Z Looking in the Z-table, we see that the probability of having a Z-score of .67 or greater (area in the tail above) is p = .2514. So there is about a 25% chance of randomly grabbing a person with an IQ of 110 or greater from the population with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15. What we just did refers to determining probability of single
  • 30. observations. But often we want to know probabilities associated with means. What’s the probability of drawing a random sample of 16 people who have a mean IQ of at least 110? You might guess that this probability will be smaller than the probability of getting just one person with an IQ of at least 110. Of course, some of these 16 people could have IQs of less than 110, but then some would need to have IQs of greater than 110 to balance it out, so that the group mean is at least 110. In order to answer this question, you need to remember what we talked about back before Test 1, sampling distributions. A sampling distribution of the mean is a theoretical distribution. It is based on what the distribution of means would look like if you took an infinite number of samples of size N from the population. We never actually bother to do that (who has
  • 31. time?) but we know that if we did, in theory, the distribution would have some specific properties. Remember that a sampling distribution has a Mean and variability. The Mean of the sampling distribution is equal to distribution is smaller than the variability of the population. The variability of the sampling distribution is called the Standard Error. In this case, because we are calculating estimates of the Mean, the variability is the Standard Error of the Mean. Note that this is different than the Standard Deviation of the sample or the population. (It is also different than the Standard error of the estimate that we learned about with regression. I wish these terms didn’t all sound so similar. But the difference between them all is very important, so pay attention and be careful!). Standard Error of the Mean is the variability of the sampling distribution of Means. It is the
  • 32. standard deviation of the sampling distribution of means. Because of the Central Limit Theorem, we know the following things: Any given sample mean will 2) If you took an infinite number of samples of size N, the standard error of the mean (i.e., the standard Deviation of the sampling distribution of means) would be: X X N What that means is that the variability of the sampling distribution is smaller when your samples are bigger. Bigger samples mean you are more likely to get a good (accurate)
  • 33. estimate of the true population Mean. 3) As the size of the sample increases, the shape of the sampling distribution of the mean will approach normal. What’s really amazing is that this is true even if the shape of the original distribution is not normal. Because of the central limit theorem, we can use a single sample of size N to estimate properties of the sampling distribution (rather than actually needing to take an infinite number of samples). OK, so now that you know about the sampling distribution of means, we can get back to our earlier question about how to determine the probability of getting a sample of N = 16 people who have an average IQ of at least 110. We’re going to create a Z-score like we did before, except that now we will create a Z-score and N = 10. Instead of
  • 34. comparing one person’s score (X) to the sample mean, we will be comparing the sample mean to the mean of the population. Instead of dividing by the standard deviation of X, we will divide by the standard error of the estimate. The general formula for the Z-score will be: X X X Z X X N
  • 35. For our example, 110 100 10 2.67 15 3.75 16 Z What’s the probability of getting a Z-score of 2.67 or greater? Look in the table, p = .0038. It is a LOT less likely that we would get a sample of 16 people with a mean IQ of 110 than it is that we would get one single person with an IQ of 110 (p = .2514). Deciding whether a sample represents a population So, if the probability of getting 16 people with a mean IQ of at least 110 just by chance is only .0038, that might make you start thinking that maybe there is something other than just chance operating here. Maybe those 16 people weren’t actually randomly sampled from a population
  • 36. with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. Maybe those 16 people do not represent the general population of people in the U.S. Maybe they actually represent some other population, such a population of college students who have higher than average IQs. We get suspicious about the representativeness of the sample because the probability of obtaining a sample with those characteristics (mean IQ of 110) is very unlikely if those people were really just randomly sampled from the general population what exactly do we mean by very unlikely? How unlikely does an event have to be before we start getting suspicious? Suppose that the sample of 16 people we drew only had a mean IQ of 101. Would we be suspicious that they were not really representative of the general population? Let’s see:
  • 37. 101 100 1 .27 15 3.75 16 Z .3936. If there’s a 39% chance that we could have found 16 people with a mean IQ of 101, it doesn’t seem so strange that it could have happened just by chance. So what probability do we want to use as our cutoff for “too unlikely?” Well, the conventional level in social sciences is usually p = .05 or less (that is, p < .05). Often, it is easier to think about this in the opposite way, by asking what is the Z-score that will give us exactly 5% probability in the tails of the distribution? This is referred to as the critical value.
  • 38. One important question is whether we just want our 5% to be in one tail of the distribution or whether we want it to be divided up between the top and bottom end of the distribution. In this case, we probably would have been just as surprised if we randomly sampled a group of 16 people and found that they had an average IQ of 90 (10 points below the mean instead of 10 points above the mean). So we would think things are very unlikely if they happened to be much higher than average as well as much lower than average. So we will split our 5% up between the two tails of the distribution. If we have 5% split up between the two ends of the distribution, that means we have 2.5% or .025 in each tail of the distribution. Let’s find the critical value. What is the Z-score that has
  • 39. –1.96 or greater than +1.96) as the region of rejection. If we end up getting a sample that gives us a Z-score that is in the region of rejection, we will conclude that it is too unlikely that this could have happened just by random chance. There must be something else going on, such as the group we sampled not actually being representative of the general population. And this leads us right into the topic of hypothesis testing, which we’ll discuss next. .025 .025 -1.96 +1.96 1 Null Hypothesis Significance
  • 40. Testing Hypothesis Testing de if an observed result is unlikely to have occurred by chance procedure not random eally p < .05! Hypotheses under investigation. Hypothesis (H1) Null Hypothesis (H0) value
  • 41. Alternative Hypothesis (H1) he population parameter is some alternative range of values hypothesis Examples of Null and Alternate Hypotheses did have an effect) 2 Nondirectional Hypothesis -tailed
  • 42. ed if test statistic is much higher OR lower than prediction Directional Hypothesis -tailed is much higher than prediction y if willing to ignore an extreme value in opposite direction from what is expected How to test a null Hypothesis distribution sample could have been drawn if H0 was actually true? Declaring Statistical Significance just by chance if H0 was actually true… – you REJECT the null Statistical Significance
  • 43. to chance if the null were true Practical Significance meaning ant may not be practically meaningful (and vice-versa) 3 Test Statistic from the parameter specified in H0 Critical Value the desired alpha level (region of rejection) Hypothesis Testing: Formal Steps 1. Generate H0 and H1 2. Select statistical procedure (z, t, etc) 3. Select a
  • 44. 4. Calculate observed statistic for your data 5. Determine critical value 6. Compare (4) and (5) 7. If (4) exceeds (5), reject H0 8. Otherwise, fail to reject H0 Truth of the Universe H0 True (no effect) H0 False(effect exists) Do not reject H0 (say there is no effect) Type I error a Correct Decision 1 - b Type II error b Correct Decision 1 - a Your Decision
  • 45. Reject H0 (say the effect exists) universe decision probabilities sum to 1.0 An analogy with the legal system proven guilty” crime” reject the null = “not guilty” 4 What really happened H0 True (Didn’t do it) H0 False (did it) Do not reject H0
  • 46. (Not guilty) Innocent person is convicted Type I error Guilty person is convicted Correct decision Guilty person gets off Type II error Innocent person goes home Correct decision Jury Decision Reject H0 (guilty verdict) Psychology 302, Winter 2020 Correlational Approaches to Research Problem Set 4, due Wednesday, March 4th in class
  • 47. 1. For each of the following, determine whether the decision reached by the researcher in the first sentence is correct, given the information in the subsequent sentences. If the decision is incorrect, indicate what type of error was made. a. Based on an initial test, a medical researcher concluded that Serum A was not effective for treating a disease. However, 25 years later, many subsequent studies have found that Serum A is effective, and it is now used regularly to treat the disease. b. A researcher who studied literacy concluded that children who were raised by parents who read to them regularly learned to read earlier than children whose parents did not read to them. This finding has been consistently demonstrated in subsequent studies over many years. c. Researchers originally claimed that students who were homeschooled performed worse in college compared to students with public education. However, over many years, studies have subsequently shown that home schooled children perform equally well in college as public school students. d. A researcher found that adults who followed a low fat diet did not lose any more weight compared to adults who were not dieting. Several years of subsequent research have shown that
  • 48. low fat diets are not effective compared to not dieting. For problems 2-4, use the logic of hypothesis testing to answer the research question posed. Be sure to go through each of the formal steps. Clearly state your null and alternate hypotheses, your obtained and critical statistics, and whether you can reject the null. Be sure to clearly state your conclusions in words. 2. A researcher is testing the effectiveness of a new drug that is intended to improve learning and memory performance. A random sample of 16 rats are given the drug and then tested on a standard learning task. The mean of the sample is 56.5. In the general population of rats (with no drug), the average score on the standardized test is normally distributed Is there
  • 49. 3. You notice that a lot of students listen to music while studying at the library, and you suspect that this may be detrimental to their learning. You take a random sample of Intro Psychology students who listen to music while studying and you measure their scores on the Intro Psych final exam. In the population of ALL intro psych students, the final exam deviation -listening students, the mean was X = 76.15. Is there evidence to conclude that listening to music is detrime 4. A common reading achievement test for fifth grade students has a students
  • 50. who receive a new type of reading skills training are significantly different from the national average, but she doesn’t know whether they’re likely to be better or worse than average. She trains her class of N = 31 students with the new technique and then gives them the test. The class average is X = 72.9 with a standard deviation of Sx= 7.5. a. Using the formal logic of null hypothesis testing, test whether Explain why you reached a different conclusion depending on what alpha level you used.