The document discusses the euroFOT project which aims to quantify the impacts of intelligent transport systems on traffic safety, efficiency, and the environment through large-scale field tests. It will analyze data from the tests to assess how functions like adaptive cruise control affect accidents, travel time, and emissions at various adoption rates. Both direct analysis of test data and modeling will be used to evaluate impacts. Results will input a cost-benefit analysis to be completed in 2011.
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euroFOT: large scale field operational tests - Impact Assessment
1. euroFOT: Large Scale Field Operational
Tests – Impact Assessment
ITS World Congress
Ahmed Benmimoun
Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge, RWTH Aachen University
Martijn van de Noort
TNO - Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
Stockholm, September 2009
www.eurofot-ip.eu
2. Contents
• Motivation and Objectives
• Approach
Safety Impacts
Traffic Efficiency Impacts
Environmental Impacts
• Summary and Outlook
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
3. Objectives of Data Analysis (1/2)
To quantify the impacts on EU level of the functions
tested in the FOT on traffic efficiency, safety and the
environment
Taking into account various penetration rates
Providing input for the socio-economic cost-benefit
analysis (CBA)
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
4. Objectives of Data Analysis (2/2)
The following impacts will be quantified for use in the
CBA:
Traffic safety: changes in the number of accidents with
fatalities, injuries (severe, slight) or material damage only
Traffic efficiency:
direct effects: travel time changes, but also
homogenisation/reduction of congestion effects for environmental
impact assessment
indirect effects: changes in the amount of accident related
congestion (based on changes in number of accidents)
Environment: changes in fuel consumption and emissions of
CO2
due to direct traffic efficiency effects
due to changes in accident related congestion
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
5. Data Analysis Approach
... Questionnaires
VMC-Fleet
CO-, CV-, CV+E-data
Data quality
Data quality
analysis
analysis
SQL Database Cost Benefit Analysis
Data processing
Data processing Quality
Quality
specific hypotheses
specific hypotheses assessment
assessment
Testing of VMC
Testing of VMC
PI‐calculation
PI‐calculation Global
Global
Data quality
Data quality assessment
assessment
analysis
analysis
Data mining
Data mining Testing of common
Testing of common
hypotheses
hypotheses
VMC-Specific Common
Data Analysis
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
6. General Approach for the Impact
Assessment
The two following methods are planned for the impact assessment,
which needs to provide input for the CBA:
•Direct route: Impact assessment directly from the FOT-data (scaling up
via situational variables)
Direct impacts are more reliable because data from the FOT is used without
assumptions
•Modelling route: Impact assessment using models to assess effects for
higher penetration rates (also includes scaling up via situational
variables)
Especially for functions that influence behaviour of other vehicles (e.g. ACC) the
direct route is not sufficient
Use of FOT data as input for models (e.g. changes in driving behaviour)
Interaction with other (equipped and non-equipped) vehicles can be modelled
Higher penetration rates than found on the road in the FOT can be modelled
Possibility to analyse network effects
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
7. Tools for Modelling Activties
PELOPS
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
11. Summary and Outlook
Current status:
• Basic methodology defined so far and described in a Data
Analysis Plan for each Vehicle Management Centre in euroFOT
Next steps
• Refinement of methodology and approach for impact assessment
Translation of surrogate measures (changes in driver and driving behaviour) into changes
in accident risk
Translation of decrease of incidents into decrease of accidents
...
• Test and evaluation of the methodology with data from FOT Pilot
• Finalisation of methodology for impact assessment
• Conduction of impact assessment for the considered functions
• Conduction of a socio-economic cost-benefit analysis
• Final results are to be expected for summer 2011
September 2009 A. Benmimoun - ITS WC www.eurofot-ip.eu
