Niels Lucas Luijckx from TNO on ERIS-Emerging Risk Identification Support System. Joint Workshop on Food Risk Assessment Research & Practice 24th November 2017, Wageningen University & Research, Netherlands

1. ERIS: SUPPORTING THE EARLY
DETECTION OF FOOD RISKS AND
ISSUES
Innovative information analysis and interpretation | Niels Lucas Luijckx

2. AGINFRA – DEMETER WORKSHOP
WAGENINGEN, 24 NOVEMBER 2017
24 November 20172 | ERIS: supporting the early detection of food risks and issues

3. 3 | ERIS: supporting the early detection of food risks and issues 24 November 2017

4. TIMING OF SIGNALLING AND WARNING
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5. WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT…
Food risks and issues
Food Safety: hazards, exposure  risks, health effects
Food Integrity: EMA, fraud  Risk or Issue?
Early detection
Any signal that has the potential of becoming or creating a hazard, risk, fraud opportunity or (thus)
issue has to be ‘caught’
Information management is key , but where to start and end
It starts with a bit of philosophy….
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6. FORESIGHT PHILOSOPHY……
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7. AND SOME MORE ….
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Hindsight Bias + Creeping Determinism  Foresight bias
Insight = hindsight + foresight + sense making (understanding
reality)
What about the unpredictable  “black swan”
What about “tipping points”

8. INFORMATION AND INTERPRETATION
Awareness and alertness for early signals is crucial
Both in emerging issue identification and in food fraud prevention
However….
Interpreting them is a major challenge
Uncertainty is a fact even with information and data available
Making the right scenario, without over-reacting (making a justified risk management decision)
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9. A WAY OF THINKING…….
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adverse
health
effect
substance food
& feed
NEW?
NEW?
NEW?
HAZARD

10. ERIS THINKING
Food safety
Other domains:
Health benefits
Consumer opinion
Pharma
Occupational (chemical) safety
Fraud
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11. ERIS IN A NUTSHELL
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System basically has three parts:
Ontology: TNO expertise and experience
Sources…..
Software to make the connection
Tailored to user needs
Finding multiple relations
(matrix search)
All results are relevant, but require
interpretation

12. Snippets
Keywords, etc Timeline
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13. Ind Health. 2005 Oct;43(4):699-701.
4-oxo-2-hexenal, a mutagen formed by omega-3 fat peroxidation,
causes DNA adduct formation in mouse organs.
Kasai H, Maekawa M, Kawai K, Hachisuka K, Takahashi Y, Nakamura H, Sawa R, Matsui S, Matsuda T.
Abstract
To identify mutagens formed in a model reaction of lipid peroxidation, linolenic acid methyl ester and hemin
were reacted with dG. As a result, a 4-oxo-2-hexenal-dG adduct (dG*) was identified in the model reaction
mixture. The 4-oxo-2-hexenal (4-OHE) showed mutagenic activity in the Salmonella typhimurium strains
TA100 and TA104. After 4-OHE was orally administered to mice, dG, 4-OHE-dC- and 4-OHE-5-methyl-dC
adducts were detected in esophageal, stomach and intestinal DNA. In the vapor phase released from the methyl
linolenate-hemin model system, and in the smoke released during the broiling of fish, 4-OHE was detected by
GCMS. The 4-OHE seems to be produced by the auto-oxidation of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. These
results provide a warning to workers dealing with omega-3 fats, who may be exposed to this volatile mutagen.
24 November 201713 | ERIS: supporting the early detection of food risks and issues
Product Substance Effect Hyperlink
Omega-3 fat 4-oxo-2-hexenal Mutagen 16294926
…. …. …. ……
…. …. …. ……
Text mining
thinking
model in
linear form

14. 24 November 2017
IS 4-OHE AN EMERGING RISK?
SCIENCE DOMAIN
2005 – 2010 “Kasai & Kawai”:
4-OHE is generated by oxidation omega-3 fatty acids such as in fish oil.
4-OHE is mutagenic in Ames test.
2010, Long et al.
The 4-oxo derivative, 4-OHE, has the possibility of being a potent
cytotoxin and biological effector as well, and subsequent study needs
to be devoted to determining the extent to which 4-OHE, its adducts, or
metabolites are found in vivo.
PUBLIC DOMAIN
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?

15. SOME PROJECTS – TRACK RECORD
Demonstration project for EFSA,
with continued emerging risk identification
Published (EFSA website)
Signals management for the US FDA
Early Awareness of Risks for a major food company in the US
Focus on brand protection and emerging research
Several projects and service agreements for companies in food and feed, and branches. 24 November 201715 | ERIS: supporting the early detection of food risks and issues

16. Ensuring the Integrity of the European food chain
WP17: feasibility study information sharing
Grant agreement No. 613688

17. EXPANSIONS
Occupational safety and health
Immune health and immunotoxicology
Pharma -> target safety assessment
Early life nutrition
Food technology and consumer attitude
Plant (waste) substances with health benefit / novel proteins
Food fraud / EMA
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18. 24 November 2017
PUBLIC DOMAIN
SCIENCE DOMAIN
Melamine in milk powder (China > global 2008)
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1982 !

19. 24 November 2017
PUBLIC DOMAIN
SCIENCE DOMAIN
Melamine in milk powder (China > global 2008)
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1982 !

20. 24 November 2017
PUBLIC DOMAIN
SCIENCE DOMAIN
Melamine in milk powder (China > global 2008)
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1982 !

21. 1994, IARC
Acrylamide is a probable
carcinogen
1997
High acrylamide levels found in
non-exposed humans
2000, June
Acrylamide in fried rat feed
2002, April 24-26
Sweden, press release:
Acrylamide in French fries and
other food products
Acrylamide formation during heating of food (2002)
24 November 2017
SCIENCE DOMAIN
PUBLIC DOMAIN
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22. 24 November 2017
Complex food production: “dioxin via feed in cow milk (2004)”
potato
peeling
potato
selection
consumer
Part of feed-dairy chain
Part of potato chain
dioxin
kaolin
clay
potato
peelings
potato
cleaning
potato sorting
in clay baths
2004
Already known in
1997
dairy
farm
feed dairy
processing
dioxin
monitoring
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23. SCENARIOS
Peoples minds are creative and able to make many associations: TRIGGER THEM
Boldly go where ……
In this case a scenario is like a funnel,
but starting at the smaller end
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24. TNO EMERGING RISK IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT
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CONTACT
Niels Lucas Luijckx or
Marcel van Zandvoort
Niels.lucasluijckx@tno.nl
Marcel.vanzandvoort@tno.nl
+31 88 86 615 26
www.tno.nl

25. THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION