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Conestoga Valley S. D. September 2006 Enrollment Projections
-249 -220 -171 -172 -138   101 -18 -42 -1 45 -24 Difference 4352 4281 4203 4205 4146   3984 4007 3934 3856 3805 3781 Dist. Act./last yr. Proj. 4103 4061 4032 4033 4008   4085 3989 3892 3855 3850 3757 Dist. Projection                       -117 -51 -7 -7 -10   13 -47 -33 24 9 4 Difference 1407 1366 1321 1363 1331   1338 1346 1258 1223 1203 1200 H.S. act./last yr. Proj. 1290 1315 1314 1356 1321   1351 1299 1225 1247 1212 1204 H.S. Projection                       -97 -96 -82 -60 -44   31 -3 6 14 21 -25 Difference 701 702 678 672 664   625 620 656 679 632 626 M.S. act./last yr. Proj. 604 606 596 612 620   656 617 662 693 653 601 M.S. Projection                       -35 -73 -82 -105 -84   59 32 -65 -39 15 2 Difference 2244 2213 2204 2170 2151   2019 2041 2020 1954 1970 1955 Ele. Act./last yr. Proj. 2209 2140 2122 2065 2067   2078 2073 1955 1915 1985 1957 Ele. Projection 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08   2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 District Projections Compared to Actual  Conestoga Valley School District Enrollment Summary
 
 
 
 
 
76 133 155 177 258 219 Grand Total 15 50 50 15     S.F. Anglesea B-town 0 5 25 30 20 20 Dup. Eagle View B-town 0 0 15 15 10 0 S.F. Millway Acre B-town               West Earl 11 20 15       TH Bradford Commons Leola 0 0 0       TH Creek Hill Proposal Leola 0       12   TH Cardinal Lane Fritz 0     27     Condo Stauffer Court Leola 0   0 0 7 7 S.F. Myer Terrace Fritz 0   0 17 20 0 Condo Country Village Leola 0             Upper Leacock 0     14     SF Harvest Hills S-town 0       20   Apt.  Ambleside S-town 10 10 10 10 10   Cond/Apt. Meadows of H. Fritz 0 5 0 0 5 5 S.F. Small plans S-town 0 6 5 0 6 5 S.F. Hamilton at B. H. S-town 12 10 10 10 20 0 S.F. Falls at Old Mills S-town 0 0 0 0 70 72 Apt./TH Rosewood Fritz 0 0 0 12 13 25 S.F. Hartman St. Fritz 0 0 0 0 0 50 S.F. South Ridge S-town 17 15 15 15 25 25 Condo Regents Park Fritz 0 0 0 0 10 10 S.F. Kolb Acres Fritz 11 12 10 12 10 0 S.F. High Dev. Fritz 08 to 09 07 to 08 06 to 07  05 to 06  04 to 05 03 to 04 East Lamp.   Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Type Development School Estimated Building Permits Per School Year
Actual Survival Ratios (ASR) 0.998 0.996 0.984 0.989 0.96977 0.99854 0.998 0.98985 0.99685 average 0.987 0.968 0.962 0.969 0.937 0.986 0.987 0.966 0.931 ASR Gr 12 1.022 0.997 0.982 0.983 0.952 1.012 1.032 0.936 1.007 ASR Gr 11 0.986 0.960 0.950 0.952 0.922 0.978 0.994 0.913 0.953 ASR Gr 10 1.050 1.054 1.119 1.072 1.141 1.097 1.003 1.045 1.069 ASR Gr 9 1.019 1.034 1.009 1.020 0.981 1.037 1.000 1.060 1.037 ASR Gr 8 1.051 1.035 1.016 1.026 0.991 1.040 1.061 1.011 1.027 ASR Gr 7 1.022 1.038 0.996 1.016 0.983 1.009 1.034 1.037 1.072 ASR Gr 6 1.025 1.029 0.997 1.015 0.993 1.000 1.050 1.017 1.047 ASR Gr 5 1.041 1.051 1.007 1.035 0.996 1.017 1.064 1.064 1.059 ASR Gr 4 1.027 1.023 1.024 1.026 1.026 1.022 1.031 1.025 1.014 ASR Gr 3 1.084 1.067 1.058 1.065 1.030 1.085 1.082 1.062 1.038 ASR Gr 2 1.110 1.147 1.100 1.118 1.099 1.100 1.120 1.152 1.217 ASR Gr 1 0.557 0.546 0.577 0.563 0.556 0.598 0.516 0.580 0.488 ASR Gr K Avg. 2yr.  Avg 4yr.  Avg. 2yr.  Avg 4yr.  2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03   Last year's ratios Conestoga Valley School District Actual Survival Ratios (ASR)
4377 4323 4236 4190 4134 4103 4061 4032 4033 4008 3982 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 Cap. 1325 1363 1320 1285 1273 1295 1290 1315 1314 1356 1321   1338 287 322 288 312 305 320 311 312 345 285 12 328 334 299 335 300 325 317 333 323 325 359 11 296 341 340 304 341 306 331 323 339 329 331 10 366 401 359 358 320 359 322 348 340 357 346 9 348 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 Cap. 700 651 659 676 638 603 604 606 596 612 620   625 304 358 321 320 286 321 288 311 304 319 8 309 347 301 355 318 317 283 318 285 308 301 7 316 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 Cap. 2425 2363 2344 2275 2279 2236 2209 2140 2122 2065 2067   2019 332 342 296 350 313 312 279 313 281 303 6 296 352 333 343 297 351 314 313 280 314 282 5 304 340 353 334 344 298 352 315 314 281 315 4 283 358 338 351 332 342 296 350 313 312 279 3 313 337 350 330 343 324 334 289 342 306 305 2 272 340 319 331 312 324 306 316 273 323 289 1 288 304 309 290 301 284 295 278 287 248 294 K 263 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 Grade 2006-07 Ten Year Enrollment Projection for Conestoga Valley S.D. exclude P.J.
2209 704 620 441 444 2140 680 601 434 425 2122 676 597 428 421 312 102 84 57 68 279 91 75 52 60 313 103 85 58 68 314 99 73 76 65 313 99 73 77 64 280 88 65 69 57 352 114 109 70 58 315 102 98 62 52 314 102 98 63 51 296 87 93 56 61 350 103 110 67 70 313 92 98 60 63 334 102 103 63 66 289 88 89 55 56 342 104 106 66 66 306 90 87 67 61 316 93 90 70 62 273 81 78 61 54 295 109 70 52 65 278 103 66 50 60 287 106 68 51 62 Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2067 654 579 421 412 2067 660 579 418 410 2019 642 565 418 394 281 92 76 52 61 303 99 82 56 66 296 97 80 55 64 314 99 73 77 64 282 89 66 70 58 304 96 71 75 62 283 91 87 57 48 315 102 98 63 51 283 92 88 57 46 312 92 98 60 63 279 82 87 53 56 313 92 98 62 61 306 93 95 59 59 305 93 94 59 59 272 83 84 54 51 323 95 92 72 64 289 85 82 64 57 288 85 82 66 55 248 91 58 44 54 294 108 69 53 63 263 97 62 49 55 Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola  B-town 2008-09 +8  -8  2007-08 2006-07 actual
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Enrollment 06 07

  • 1. Conestoga Valley S. D. September 2006 Enrollment Projections
  • 2. -249 -220 -171 -172 -138   101 -18 -42 -1 45 -24 Difference 4352 4281 4203 4205 4146   3984 4007 3934 3856 3805 3781 Dist. Act./last yr. Proj. 4103 4061 4032 4033 4008   4085 3989 3892 3855 3850 3757 Dist. Projection                       -117 -51 -7 -7 -10   13 -47 -33 24 9 4 Difference 1407 1366 1321 1363 1331   1338 1346 1258 1223 1203 1200 H.S. act./last yr. Proj. 1290 1315 1314 1356 1321   1351 1299 1225 1247 1212 1204 H.S. Projection                       -97 -96 -82 -60 -44   31 -3 6 14 21 -25 Difference 701 702 678 672 664   625 620 656 679 632 626 M.S. act./last yr. Proj. 604 606 596 612 620   656 617 662 693 653 601 M.S. Projection                       -35 -73 -82 -105 -84   59 32 -65 -39 15 2 Difference 2244 2213 2204 2170 2151   2019 2041 2020 1954 1970 1955 Ele. Act./last yr. Proj. 2209 2140 2122 2065 2067   2078 2073 1955 1915 1985 1957 Ele. Projection 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08   2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03 2001-02 District Projections Compared to Actual Conestoga Valley School District Enrollment Summary
  • 3.  
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6.  
  • 7.  
  • 8. 76 133 155 177 258 219 Grand Total 15 50 50 15     S.F. Anglesea B-town 0 5 25 30 20 20 Dup. Eagle View B-town 0 0 15 15 10 0 S.F. Millway Acre B-town               West Earl 11 20 15       TH Bradford Commons Leola 0 0 0       TH Creek Hill Proposal Leola 0       12   TH Cardinal Lane Fritz 0     27     Condo Stauffer Court Leola 0   0 0 7 7 S.F. Myer Terrace Fritz 0   0 17 20 0 Condo Country Village Leola 0             Upper Leacock 0     14     SF Harvest Hills S-town 0       20   Apt. Ambleside S-town 10 10 10 10 10   Cond/Apt. Meadows of H. Fritz 0 5 0 0 5 5 S.F. Small plans S-town 0 6 5 0 6 5 S.F. Hamilton at B. H. S-town 12 10 10 10 20 0 S.F. Falls at Old Mills S-town 0 0 0 0 70 72 Apt./TH Rosewood Fritz 0 0 0 12 13 25 S.F. Hartman St. Fritz 0 0 0 0 0 50 S.F. South Ridge S-town 17 15 15 15 25 25 Condo Regents Park Fritz 0 0 0 0 10 10 S.F. Kolb Acres Fritz 11 12 10 12 10 0 S.F. High Dev. Fritz 08 to 09 07 to 08 06 to 07 05 to 06 04 to 05 03 to 04 East Lamp.   Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Sch. Yr. Type Development School Estimated Building Permits Per School Year
  • 9. Actual Survival Ratios (ASR) 0.998 0.996 0.984 0.989 0.96977 0.99854 0.998 0.98985 0.99685 average 0.987 0.968 0.962 0.969 0.937 0.986 0.987 0.966 0.931 ASR Gr 12 1.022 0.997 0.982 0.983 0.952 1.012 1.032 0.936 1.007 ASR Gr 11 0.986 0.960 0.950 0.952 0.922 0.978 0.994 0.913 0.953 ASR Gr 10 1.050 1.054 1.119 1.072 1.141 1.097 1.003 1.045 1.069 ASR Gr 9 1.019 1.034 1.009 1.020 0.981 1.037 1.000 1.060 1.037 ASR Gr 8 1.051 1.035 1.016 1.026 0.991 1.040 1.061 1.011 1.027 ASR Gr 7 1.022 1.038 0.996 1.016 0.983 1.009 1.034 1.037 1.072 ASR Gr 6 1.025 1.029 0.997 1.015 0.993 1.000 1.050 1.017 1.047 ASR Gr 5 1.041 1.051 1.007 1.035 0.996 1.017 1.064 1.064 1.059 ASR Gr 4 1.027 1.023 1.024 1.026 1.026 1.022 1.031 1.025 1.014 ASR Gr 3 1.084 1.067 1.058 1.065 1.030 1.085 1.082 1.062 1.038 ASR Gr 2 1.110 1.147 1.100 1.118 1.099 1.100 1.120 1.152 1.217 ASR Gr 1 0.557 0.546 0.577 0.563 0.556 0.598 0.516 0.580 0.488 ASR Gr K Avg. 2yr. Avg 4yr. Avg. 2yr. Avg 4yr. 2006-07 2005-06 2004-05 2003-04 2002-03   Last year's ratios Conestoga Valley School District Actual Survival Ratios (ASR)
  • 10. 4377 4323 4236 4190 4134 4103 4061 4032 4033 4008 3982 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 1595 Cap. 1325 1363 1320 1285 1273 1295 1290 1315 1314 1356 1321   1338 287 322 288 312 305 320 311 312 345 285 12 328 334 299 335 300 325 317 333 323 325 359 11 296 341 340 304 341 306 331 323 339 329 331 10 366 401 359 358 320 359 322 348 340 357 346 9 348 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 Cap. 700 651 659 676 638 603 604 606 596 612 620   625 304 358 321 320 286 321 288 311 304 319 8 309 347 301 355 318 317 283 318 285 308 301 7 316 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 2425 Cap. 2425 2363 2344 2275 2279 2236 2209 2140 2122 2065 2067   2019 332 342 296 350 313 312 279 313 281 303 6 296 352 333 343 297 351 314 313 280 314 282 5 304 340 353 334 344 298 352 315 314 281 315 4 283 358 338 351 332 342 296 350 313 312 279 3 313 337 350 330 343 324 334 289 342 306 305 2 272 340 319 331 312 324 306 316 273 323 289 1 288 304 309 290 301 284 295 278 287 248 294 K 263 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 Grade 2006-07 Ten Year Enrollment Projection for Conestoga Valley S.D. exclude P.J.
  • 11. 2209 704 620 441 444 2140 680 601 434 425 2122 676 597 428 421 312 102 84 57 68 279 91 75 52 60 313 103 85 58 68 314 99 73 76 65 313 99 73 77 64 280 88 65 69 57 352 114 109 70 58 315 102 98 62 52 314 102 98 63 51 296 87 93 56 61 350 103 110 67 70 313 92 98 60 63 334 102 103 63 66 289 88 89 55 56 342 104 106 66 66 306 90 87 67 61 316 93 90 70 62 273 81 78 61 54 295 109 70 52 65 278 103 66 50 60 287 106 68 51 62 Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2067 654 579 421 412 2067 660 579 418 410 2019 642 565 418 394 281 92 76 52 61 303 99 82 56 66 296 97 80 55 64 314 99 73 77 64 282 89 66 70 58 304 96 71 75 62 283 91 87 57 48 315 102 98 63 51 283 92 88 57 46 312 92 98 60 63 279 82 87 53 56 313 92 98 62 61 306 93 95 59 59 305 93 94 59 59 272 83 84 54 51 323 95 92 72 64 289 85 82 64 57 288 85 82 66 55 248 91 58 44 54 294 108 69 53 63 263 97 62 49 55 Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town Total S-town Fritz Leola B-town 2008-09 +8 -8 2007-08 2006-07 actual