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www.turkuamk.fi/aadi
harri.jalonen@turkuamk.fi
www.harrijalonen.fi
Ennakointi kansalaistaitona
Harri Jalonen
@Jalonen
www.turkuamk.fi/aadi
www.harrijalonen.fi
11.10.2018
Panimoravintola Koulu
Turku
@Jalonen
tulevaisuus.
maailma muuttuu hitaasti ja nopeasti
@Jalonen
There are 2 billion children in the world today, aged 0 to
15 years old.
How many children there will be in the year 2100,
according to the United Nations?
A: 4 billion
B: 3 billion
C: 2 billion
(Rosling 2018)
(mukaillen Taleb 2007)@Jalonen
ihminen.
Muisti koskien menneisyyttä
Ymmärrys nykyisyydestä
Huolenpito tulevaisuudesta
”Kaukoviisautta on se, että asiat
mietitään etukäteen, ja
kuvitellaan tapahtuvaksi
sikseenkin elävästi, että kun se
tapahtuu, ovat reitit selvät.”
(Konsta Pylkkänen Veikko Huovisen
Havukka-ahon ajattelijassa)
Kognitiivinen dissonanssi.
(Festinger 1955)
Rajoitettu rationaalisuus.
(Simon 1955)
Nopea vs. harkitseva ajattelu.
(Kahneman 2002)
HIPPO-kulttuuri.
(Brynjolffson & McAfee 2017)
Tiedollinen löytöretkeily vs. tiedetyn hyödyntäminen
(March 1991)
@Jalonen
tieto.
Saatavilla oleva
informaatio ja tieto
RATKAISUJEN
MERKITTÄVYYS
AIKA
(mukaillen Moensted 2006, Jalonen 2011)
?
@Jalonen
Saatavilla oleva
informaatio ja tieto
RATKAISUJEN
MERKITTÄVYYS
AIKA
(mukaillen Zack 1999, Jalonen 2012)
EPÄVARMUUS
(uncertainty)
MONIMUTKAISUUS
(complexity)
EPÄSELVYYS
(equivocality)
MONITULKINTAISUUS
(ambiquity)
@Jalonen
EPÄVARMUUS MONIMUTKAISUUS
The world of
known unknowns
The world of
unknown unknowns
‘vähentäminen’
‘rationaalinen järkeily’ EPÄSELVYYS MONITULKINTAISUUS
‘kohtaaminen’
‘puntaroiva merkityksellistäminen’
taito.
Ennakointi ei ole
syntymälahjana
saatu ominaisuus
vaan taito, jota
voidaan harjoittaa.
@Jalonen
mitä
miten
@Jalonen
Risto, miksi v***ssa sinun
pitää työntää nokkasi joka
paikkaan?
Risto Siilasmaa (2018) Paranoidi optimisti.
@Jalonen
Ennakoinnilla
luodaan
tarttumapintaa
onnekkaille
sattumille.
@Jalonen
Harri Jalonen
@Jalonen
Kiitos!

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