The energy scenarios for the seas of the Mediterranean

1. Energy Scenarios of Mediterranean Sea
Towards an Euro-Mediterranean
Energy Community
M e d i t e r r a n e a n W e e k o f E c o n o m i c L e a d e r s
M e d a G r e e n E c o n o m i c S u m m i t
M e d i t e r r a n e a n F o r u m f o r E c o n o m i c I n t e l l i g e n c e
B a r c e l o n a - 2 8 N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 4
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Dr Mourad PREURE ( I F P E N S c h o o l )
International Petroleum Expert
President of EMERGY International Strategic Consulting
IPEMED Energy Advisor

2. 2
Asymmetrical interdependence in terms of energy
between the two shores of the Mediterranean ...
European Commission (2010), EU energy
trends to 2030 — Update 2009, p. 67
 20% of gas and 15% of oil consumed
in Europe come from North Africa
 84% of gas exports and 60% of oil
exports from North Africa go to Europe
 54% of energy consumption in the EU
is provided by suppliers outside the EU.
 Energy dependence of the EU could
reach 60% by 2020 and 80% in 2030.
 The primary energy demand in the
SEMC will triple by 2030. 10 million
people still lack access to energy ..
Increasing asymmetry. No development
dynamics converge

3. 33
North Africa : the center of a powerful movement
where economic entropy vectors are highly
aggravating factors…
 Weakness of the productive fabric and
inability to generate sufficient jobs to meet
population growth
 Food dependency and Water Stress
 Energy is a stressor for both countries
possessing resources and countries
dependent on imports for their supplies
Two elements dominate the geopolitics
of the Mediterranean energy and
asymmetry with Europe

4. Strong instabilities at work in the Mediterranean
Source CNUCED
France 1026
Espagne 537
Italie 364
Portugal 114
Turquie 145
Israël 59
Grèce 52
Egypte 50
Croatie 44
Bulgarie 36
Maroc 32
Tunisie 26
Algérie 11
Foreign direct investment
(G $)
 Increased prosperity and offsets uneven
development between the north and south
 GDP is a ratio of 1 to 10 between the North and
South
 Unemployment rate in North 8-10%, South
20%
 Tensions today on migration flow
Arc of instability in East Mediterranean
 The Mediterranean is the most active
area of ​​economic divide in the world
 Economic asymmetries  strong instability in
the South vs Northern Development
 Strong dependence of the South to the North
 Economic crisis in Europe hit Euro-
Mediterranean countries
 51% decrease in FDI while all continents rose,
according to a report by the UNCTAD
 Potential for spread of the financial crisis
to countries south of the Mediterranean
already weakened by political crises.

5. 5
The prosperity gap between North and South of
the Mediterranean tends to increase ...
GDP/habitant
euros2009
GDP/habitant
2030
Rate of
variation
2009-2030
North 20 000 euros 27 800 +39%
South-West 4 800 euros 8 500 euros +77%
GDP/habitant and rate of variation 2009-2030
Source : OME
Annual
growth
rate of
GDP
1990-2009
Annual
growth rate
of GDP
2009-2030
Annual
growth rate
of
population
2009-2030
NORTH 1,7% 1,9% 0,3%
South
West
4% 4% 1,2%
Growth rate of GDP and the population of
the countries of the Mediterranean region
(%)
 The population in the North is
currently 216 million, with a GDP
per capita of around € 20,000.
 North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya,
Morocco and Tunisia): 162 million
people with a GDP per capita of
about 4800 euros. Young
population in the South: The average
age is north of 41, he is 26 years in
the South, one third of the
population is under 15 years

6. 6%
51%
19%
4%
18%
2%
Charbon
Produits pétroliers
Gaz
Biomasse
Electricité
Géothermie, solaire,
éolien
Source: donnéesOME, AIE
25%
26%
27%
6%
5%11%
Source:donnéesOME, AIE
Industrie
Transport
Residentiel
Tertiaire
Agriculture
Usagenon énergétique
6
Dominance of oil in the energy balance of the
South ...
Petroleum products are
highly dominant (51%),
followed by gas (19%) and
electricity (18%), far ahead of
coal (6%), biomass (4%) and
renewables (2% ) (geothermal,
solar and wind).
The South needs to build an additional
200 GW of generating capacity by
2030 to ensure its economic and social
development.
capacité
Final Energy consomption by
sector in the SEMC (2008)
Final energy consomption by
product in the SEMC (2008)
Source OME

7. 7
We must expect a boom in electricity
consumption in the South by 2030...
Les combustibles fossiles représentent
89,5% de la production d’électricité des
PSEM. Les énergies renouvelables (hors
hydraulique) sont encore très marginales
avec 0,5% seulement de cette production.
19%
17%
53,5%
10%
0,5%
Source;donnéesOME,AIE
Charbon
Pétrole
Gaz
Hydrologie
Renouvelables
 Population pressure and economic growth
in the Mediterranean  energy demand is
expected to increase by over 40% by 2030.
Much of the increase in demand
therefore be located in the SEMC.
 Demand in the South grow 4-5 times faster
than in the North in 2030 to represent
nearly 43% of the energy demand of the
Mediterranean, against 30% today, the
North saw its share fall by 72 to 58%.
 Electricity demand in MENA represent 47%
in the same horizon against 28% currently.
 Gas demand expected to increase
significantly and exceed the demand for oil
in the next 10 years. Share of gas
consumption will reach 36% in 2030.
Increasing Energy Efficiency
to curb rising demand
Source OME
Electricity production by
product SEMC (2008)

8.  The countries of the Southern
Mediterranean have abundant
deposits of energy resources mainly
with solar energy and to a lesser
extent wind energy.
 The energy of radiation received per
km2 is equivalent to 1.5 million
barrels of oil or 300,000 tons of
coal.
 A southerner now consumes 2,030
kWh and its northern neighbor
6,036 kWh. However, in 2030 the
southerner consume twice or 4300
kWh / year.
8
The potential of the South: a renewable primary
energy in abundance ...
Average
sunshine
duration
(hours /
year
Average
energy
received
(KWh/m2/y
ear)
coastal 2 650 1 700
highlands 3 000 1 800
Sahara
(86% of
Algeria)
3 500 2650
Algeria has abundant gas resources. This qualifies for leadership in
solar hybrid power / gas where the cost per kWh is optimum today

9. Oil and gas reserves around the (in Gbls)
Mediterranean. 4.6% of world reserves
Oil % Oil Gas % Gas
Iran 138.4 11.2 27.8 15.7
Irak 115.0 9.3 3.17 1.8
Koweït 101.5 8.2 1.78 1.0
Saudi Arabia 264.2 21.3 7.17 4.0
EAU 97.8 7.9 6.09 3.4
Qatar 27.4 2.2 25.6 14.4
ALGERIA 12.3 1 4.52 2.5
Egypt 4.1 0.3 2.06 1.2
Libya 41.5 3.3 1.5 0.8
Tunisia 0.6
Middle East 755.3 61 73.21 41.3
Russia 79.4 6.4 44.65 25.2
Kazakhstan 39.8 3.2 1.9 1.1
Azerbaïdjan 7 0.6 1.28 0.7 9
Source BP
St Review

10. Interest of major projects ENR export like
DESERTEC ...
 technology transfer,
 local manufacture of adequate equipment
 export electricity surplus to Europe
For the south coutries…:
Producing countries does not want to
exchange their position as an exporter of
oil to the exporter of solar energy
Nuclear Gas Ccgt charbon Wind power
onshore
Solar (PV) Solar (CSP)
USD/kWh 0,098 0 ,092 0,089 0,06 – 0,14* 0,22 -0,27* 0, 17- 0,36*
Durée de vie en
année
60 30 40 25 25 25
Standardised costs of kWh
Source : OCDE (2008), *IRENA (2012)
Solar kWh is expensive but a sharp decline
in its cost is expected in the coming
decades, up to 40% lower estimated 2020

11. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Marketed
Production
Consumption
GAZ (Bcm)
The United States: a new player in the
European energy game?
 U.S. future gas exporter?
 USA exports 45 Bcm in 2025 and
more than 100 Bcm in 2040
 U.S. oil production exceeding
Saudi Arabia in 2025? 12 million
bpd until 2040  geopolitical
impact
 Most of this growth will come
from non-conventional oil
 Power generation with coal fell a
quarter in the US while the gas
increased by 63%
 US coal headed to Europe
Many gas power plants close in
Europe. 28 being closed plants in
Germany.
11
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
.1965
.1968
.1971
.1974
.1977
.1980
.1983
.1986
.1989
.1992
.1995
.1998
.2001
.2004
.2007
.2010
Consommation
Production
Oil( mbj)

12. 12© Mourad PREURE 2008
Algerian Gas
Russian Gas
Middle East Gas
United States
Libyan Gas
Gazoduc Nabucco
The European gas
landscape
GNL
Nigeria
Mozambique
Tanzanie
8%
10%
23%
19%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Marketed Production
Consumption
Gazoduc
Southstream
Gas Dépendancy:
55% in2012
72% in2015
85% in2030
Gazoduc
Northstream
Norway

13.  Continuation of current trends increases the divergence
resulting in shifts prosperity, instability and stress
migration pressures.
 Is not observed neguentropic factors at work, but rather
an increase and diffusion of disorder. Economic factors
contribute strongly.
 Economic power of emerging countries in 2030 equivalent
to that of developed countries, Asia = new center of
gravity of global growth  loss of influence of the Euro-
Mediterranean area in international regulations.
 The North African states must develop their domestic
demand to increase their productions by developing
solvent markets  out of low-cost production logics.
 Scientific and technological development, renew
productive organization coveting the technology-intensive
segments of global value chains, out of the mirage of the
service sector.
13
The Mediterranean is threatened in the future by
marginalization and divergence ...

14. 14
Towards an Euro-Mediterranean Energy
Community…
 The increasing energy dependence of Europe can find a
structural solution in a Euro-Mediterranean framework.
 One can pose the problem in terms of complementarity and
interdependence
 We must also anticipate strong growth in energy demand and
the various strategic alternatives that will be facing the
countries of the south shore.
The natural gas can be the lever of a new energy partnership
 We must design and implement a new partnership based on
energy transition.
◦ Guarantee the security of the North of supply and security of the South
opportunities.
◦ North Africa can become the electric battery of Europe combined fossil
fuels and renewable
 Energy can be the regional integration lever such as coal and
steel were for European integration.
◦ the emergence of industrial and technological champions Euro-
Mediterranean renewable.
◦ Densify the industrial and technological cooperation
◦ Universities and research in southern countries must be the hearth of
the dynamic

15. http://mouradpreure.unblog.fr
Prospective, Études Stratégiques et Énergétiques
Communication, Communication de crise, Evènementiel
Intelligence Économique, Knowledge Management
Montage d’Affaires, Formation, Coaching de Dirigeants
www.emergydz.com
mouradpreure@yahoo/fr
emergydz@ymail.com
Téléphone/Fax: +213.21.63.19.36
Mobile: 0552.59.33.08
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