Gilberto Callera e Paolo D'Ermo - WEC Italia - WEC Energy Scenarios to 2050

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Slides presentate in occasione della 3rd International ECCC, 5 - 7 May 2014

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Gilberto Callera e Paolo D'Ermo - WEC Italia - WEC Energy Scenarios to 2050

  1. 1. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all © World Energy Council 2010 World Energy Scenarios Composing Energy Futures to 2050 Gilberto Callera Chairman, World Energy Council Italy Paolo D’Ermo Energy Studies and Analyses Manager
  2. 2. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all© World Energy Council2 World Energy Council (WEC) WEC is UN-accredited, non-governmental, non-commercial and non-aligned Established in 1923, WEC is one of the biggest multi-energy International Organisations WEC produces many regional, inter-regional and world studies WEC organises the World Energy Congress every three years, the most important Multi-energy Congress in the World: Last round Daegu 2013, South Korea; Next round Istanbul 2016, Turkey.
  3. 3. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all WEC IN THE WORLD National Member Committees in nearly 100 countries
  4. 4. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all WEC’s Flagship Studies Scenarios Trilemma Resources Study activity aims to provide energy leaders, policymakers, opinion leaders and voters with proper data and information about energy issues in order to help them making decisions.
  5. 5. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050 Jazz: trade based, consumer driven, focussed on access and affordability; achieving growth through low cost energy; Governments facilitate GHG actions. What are scenarios? The Organisation has put together plausible and pragmatic assessments of the reality of what is actually happening and not what WEC would like to happen in an ideal or politically directed world. The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to 2050 are therefore exploratory, rather than normative Symphony: government led, voter driven, focussed on environmental goals and energy security, national and regional measures to increase share of renewables in energy mix; binding international agreement on GHG emissions
  6. 6. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all  WEC Scenarios building process and assumptions;  Scenario highlights;  Primary energy supply;  Global demand by fuel;  Global electricity production by fuel/technology;  World investment needs by technologies;  Two focuses: Central-South Asia and East Asia;  Global CO2 emissions by regions;  Conclusions: energy and electricity mix in 2050. INDEX
  7. 7. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all Scenario Building Process and the key drivers differientiating the two scenarios 1. Government and the role of state 2. Availability of funds: investment 3. Mitigation of CO2 4. Equality, energy access and poverty 5. Global economics 6. Energy prices 7. Consumer/citizen acceptance 8. Energy efficiency 9. Technology developments 10. Security of supply 11. China and India 12. Energy poverty 13. Energy sources 14. Competition for resources 15. Skills shortages Output from 29 critical issues was then combined with the messages from regional workshops and further expert input to yield two distinctly separate scenario stories, differentiated in terms of 15 specific clusters:
  8. 8. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all The WEC’s scenario storyline and quantification assumptions The WEC’s scenario stories were quantified into these figures which acted as constraints in the two models
  9. 9. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all Scenarios Highlights Share of fossil fuels in the total primary energy supply: • Jazz 2050: 77% • Symphony 2050: 59% (share of fossils in 2010: 80%) Global final energy demand: • Jazz 2050: 629 EJ • Symphony 2050: 491 EJ (demand in 2010: 373 EJ) Per capita electricity consumption: • Jazz 2050: 5440kWh/y • Symphony 2050: 4600kWh/y (consumption in 2010: 2580kWh/y) The cumulative CO2 emissions are for 2010 to 2050: • Jazz: 2000Gt • Symphony: 1400Gt (1000Gt from the period 1900-2004)
  10. 10. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 10 Global primary energy supply SYMPHONYJAZZ Upstream liberalized; Technology development; Supply surge/more producers; Coal remains dominant in some regions. Tighter supply (lower E&P); Higher infrastructure costs; Energy security drives reduced fossil use. +61% +27% 20% 30%
  11. 11. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 11 Total fuel consumption by fuel type: the increasing share of the electricity JAZZ: • economic growth leads to higher consumption; • improved access to energy. SYMPHONY: • lower consumption, high impact of energy saving (and lower growth); • switching away from fossil fuels (peak in 2030).0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050 EJ/y Solar Bio, Alc Hydrogen Electricity Gas Oil Type Coal Heat Bio noncomm. Both Scenarios foresee a significant increase of the electricity in the total fuel consumption
  12. 12. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all The main driver: population without access to electricity
  13. 13. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 13 Global electricity generation by fuel type +150% +123%
  14. 14. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 14 Global investment in Electricity Generation Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW • Coal and Solar are the technologies that will require the largest amount of invesments in the long run respectively in the Jazz and in the Symphony scenario; • Wind and Hydropower will follow with huge requirments of money in both scenarios; • Natural gas technologies will require less investment despite the significant growth of the capacities in both scenarios.
  15. 15. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 15 Focus on: South-Central Asia, and East Asia
  16. 16. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 16 Investment needs in electricity generation in the East Asia (China, South Korea and Japan)
  17. 17. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 17 Investment needs in electricity generation in the Central-South Asia (India and Central Asia countries without Russia)
  18. 18. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all 18 Global CO₂ emissions by region JAZZ: • Energy choice based on free markets • limited regulations supporting low- carbon energy (but regional diversity) SYMPHONY: • Priority to environmental sustainability • CO2 reduction obligations, carbon taxes, CC(U)S mandates, renewable energy subsidies • consequently: global carbon price emerges The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target without enormous economic costs
  19. 19. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all • Energy efficiency is absolutely crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply in both Scenarios; • Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and India), CCS is critical to coal in Symphony; • Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share especially in Jazz; • Oil will continue to be the dominant fuel in transport with growth in natural gas in Jazz and Biofuels and electricity in Symphony; • Nuclear is not a game changer but is important in Symphony; • Hydro: great economic potential of hydro electricity generation especially in SSA and LAC ; • Share of renewables increases in Symphony. Solar takes off; • Future electricity generation mix will be subject to tremendous changes up to 2050 with an increasing complexity of the system. Conclusions: energy and electricity generation mix in 2050
  20. 20. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Paolo D’Ermo, Energy Studies and Analyses Manager, WEC Italy paolo.dermo@wec-italia.org +39 0651605091
  21. 21. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all Conclusions: 10 Key messages 1. Energy system complexity will increase by 2050 2. Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply 3. The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be fossil based 4. Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one size fits all solution’ to the energy trilemma 5. The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450ppm target without unacceptable carbon prices 6. A low carbon future is not only linked to renewables: CC(U)S is important and consumer behaviour needs changing. 7. CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties moving forward up to 2050 8. Balancing the energy trilemma means making hard choices 9. Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to deliver benefits to all consumers 10. Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver

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