This document provides an energy outlook and summarizes commodity price movements for crude oil, natural gas, and currencies. Crude oil and natural gas futures fell over 1% on the NYMEX and declined marginally on the MCX amid growing stockpile surpluses and weaker economic data from the US. Natural gas storage saw its first withdrawal since March 2012 but prices still closed lower. The dollar index was flat while the rupee appreciated against the dollar.

1. Energy Outlook November 16 2012
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Commodity/Contract Net Chg % Chg Open High Low Close Volume Open Int
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)
CRUDEOIL CL Z12 ETH (0.87) (1.01) 86.36 86.83 84.68 85.45 114,280 85,411
CRUDEOIL CL F13 ETH (0.88) (1.01) 86.77 87.25 85.10 85.87 259,921 314,064
CRUDEOIL CL G13 ETH (0.87) (1.00) 87.24 87.83 85.70 86.44 42,296 132,439
NATURALGAS NG Z12 ETH (0.06) (1.52) 3.76 3.83 3.68 3.70 148,838 107,615
NATURALGAS NG F13 ETH (0.06) (1.50) 3.87 3.94 3.80 3.82 75,103 273,949
NATURALGAS NG G13 ETH (0.06) (1.44) 3.89 3.95 3.81 3.83 23,073 64,492
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
CRUDEOIL 15NOV2012 (15.00) (0.32) 4,795.00 4,819.00 4,715.00 4,725.00 137,406 32,322
CRUDEOIL 18DEC2012 (10.00) (0.21) 4,860.00 4,878.00 4,775.00 4,785.00 8,395 2,506
CRUDEOIL 21JAN2013 (9.00) (0.19) 4,914.00 4,930.00 4,834.00 4,843.00 172 192
NATURALGAS 27NOV2012 (1.80) (0.86) 208.50 210.40 203.30 206.70 97,059 21,843
NATURALGAS 26DEC2012 (1.90) (0.88) 216.00 217.30 210.80 214.10 15,762 6,152
NATURALGAS 28JAN2013 (1.70) (0.78) 217.30 219.20 213.00 216.00 1,441 1,661
Currency Prices
FINEX USD INDEX 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 80.25 0 0
USDINR (0.18) (0.33) 54.98 55.08 54.68 54.70 0 0
EURUSD 0.00 0.37 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.28 0 0
EURINR 0.13 0.19 69.49 69.94 69.15 70.16 0 0
JPYINR (0.01) (1.40) 0.68 0.69 0.68 0.68 0 0
GBPINR (0.02) (0.02) 86.92 87.28 86.57 87.05 0 0
BMA Wealth Creators Commodity Research

2. Energy Outlook
Correlation Matrix
Commodity Gold Spot Silver Spot Dow Jones Indus. Avg WTI Crude Oil Dollar Index Spot
Gold Spot 1.000 0.761 0.064 0.284 (0.328)
Silver Spot 0.761 1.000 0.245 0.458 (0.408)
Dow Jones Indus. Avg 0.064 0.245 1.000 0.517 (0.562)
WTI Crude Oil 0.284 0.458 0.517 1.000 (0.471)
Dollar Index Spot (0.328) (0.408) (0.562) (0.471) 1.000
Commodity WTI Crude Oil Natural Gas Future Dollar Index Dow Jones Indus. AVG
WTI Crude Oil 1.000 0.179 (0.471) 0.517
Natural Gas Future 0.179 1.000 (0.045) 0.056
Dollar Index (0.471) (0.045) 1.000 (0.562)
Dow Jones Indus. AVG 0.517 0.056 (0.562) 1.000
Fundamental Outlook
US Crude Oil futures eased on Thursday, on concern over a growing stockpile surplus and weaker economic data
from the world top consumer of oil. The most actively traded Crude Oil contract tested a low of $84.68 before
settling at $85.45, fell more than a percent or 87 cents per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange while
domestic Oil prices declined marginal despite a stronger rupee against the dollar which appreciated 0.33% or 18
paise to close at Rs 54.70. MCX Crude Oil futures moved down 15 points or 0.32% to close at Rs 4725.00 after
having tested a high of Rs 4819.00.
NYMEX Oil prices were trading lower in the earlier session on the hopes of increase in inventory and greater
number of US Jobless Claims. US Department of Labor showed that Initial Jobless Claims climbed 78,000 to
439,000 numbers, much weaker than the expectation of 372,000 numbers. US DOE showed that Crude Oil
Inventories rose for the second week by 1.1 million barrels. Data from the Energy Information Administration
showed Crude Oil stocks rose but little lesser than the market expectation of +2.5 million barrels in the week
ended November 09. US Crude Oil stocks also hit a three years high last week and 13.4% above the five year
average. It also seen that market is overlooked the Middle East tension on last day but still on track as the traders
are looking the situation nervously.
Front month Natural Gas futures closed lower and reversed a three days rally despite a decline in Natural Gas
Storage which was the first withdrawal in US Gas Storage since March 15, 2012. NYMEX Natural Gas closed lower
by 1.52% or 6 cents to $3.70 after having a tested a high of $3.83 per mmBtu while MCX Natural Gas prices
tested a high of Rs 210.40 before settling at Rs 206.70. In the earlier session Natural Gas prices were trading
lower on the back of cooler weather but after the release of US Natural Gas Storage prices moved lower and
closed in negative territory. EIA Natural Gas storage decreased 18 billion cubic feet against -13 billion cubic feet
of market forecast.
BMA Wealth Creators Commodity Research

3. Energy Outlook
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