- Swedbank's Total Commodity Price Index rose in March to its highest level since August 2008, driven by a substantial increase in oil prices. Excluding energy, the price index fell for the first time in over half a year.
- Investments in precious metals like gold and silver have seen renewed interest due to high oil prices and inflation concerns. Gold prices have risen to new record levels.
- Metal prices slowed in March, with nickel, zinc and copper declining the most, though prices remain high. Slower Chinese commodity imports and Japanese production cuts contributed to the decline.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
GOLD - The price of gold has traded up and down since the election. Comex gold has been less volatile than gold mining stocks and the gold stock exchange-traded fund. We are very bullish on gold prices for
2017 although the current scenario of Gold is bearish over the short term
Most emerging Asian currencies rose on Friday to see weekly gains on growing expectations the US Federal Reserve will delay interest rate hikes after soft economic data.Malaysia's ringgit hovered near a two-week high as the economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter and its current account surplus almost doubled. The US dollar stayed around a four-month low against a basket of major currencies as softer-than-expected US producer prices deepened concerns over slowing growth in the world's top economy.
SEB-report: Consumption, exports boost eastern European economiesSEBgroup
Eastern European economies will strengthen in 2011 on the back of greater household purchasing power and competitive exports, states SEB's Eastern European Outlook released Wednesday. Overall, economic conditions will strengthen across the region over the next two years, with exports driving growth this year.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
GOLD - The price of gold has traded up and down since the election. Comex gold has been less volatile than gold mining stocks and the gold stock exchange-traded fund. We are very bullish on gold prices for
2017 although the current scenario of Gold is bearish over the short term
Most emerging Asian currencies rose on Friday to see weekly gains on growing expectations the US Federal Reserve will delay interest rate hikes after soft economic data.Malaysia's ringgit hovered near a two-week high as the economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter and its current account surplus almost doubled. The US dollar stayed around a four-month low against a basket of major currencies as softer-than-expected US producer prices deepened concerns over slowing growth in the world's top economy.
SEB-report: Consumption, exports boost eastern European economiesSEBgroup
Eastern European economies will strengthen in 2011 on the back of greater household purchasing power and competitive exports, states SEB's Eastern European Outlook released Wednesday. Overall, economic conditions will strengthen across the region over the next two years, with exports driving growth this year.
Swedbanks Baltic Sea Region Report 2011: Despite gearing down, the Baltic Sea region moves forward – rewarding business opportunities are there to be found!
Energy & Commodities, 2010 regarding MarchSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Energy & Commodities - 2010 - August/SeptemberSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
BORD GÁIS ENERGY INDEX INCREASES 4% IN NOVEMBER
- INCREASES IN BOTH OIL AND GAS PUSH INDEX HIGHER -
An increase in both oil and gas prices drove the Bord Gáis Energy Index 4% higher for the month of November. A weakening of the euro due to uncertainty about the future of the single currency compounded the effect. The lingering threat of a double dip recession continues to be a major influence on the movements in the index.
The index, which now stands at 143, is 17% higher than it was in November 2010.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Energy & Commodities, 2010, regarding AprilSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index from June 2013.
The Bord Gáis Energy Index was stable (-1%) in June as falls in the Irish wholesale electricity, UK Day-ahead gas and European coal prices were counteracted by a rising front month Brent crude oil price.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
1. Energy & Commodities
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Jörgen Kennemar No. 4 • 15 April 2011
Inflation concerns and austerity – challenges for the commodity
market
• Swedbank’s Total Commodity Price Index in USD rose in March to the
highest level since August 2008 driven by a substantial increase in oil prices.
Excluding energy commodities, the price index fell by 1.4%, marking the first
decline in over a half-year. In SEK and euro, which rose against the dollar,
the price drop was greater for both metals and food commodities.
• Investments in precious metals have seen renewed interest in the wake of
high oil prices and increased inflation concerns. The weakening of the dollar
in 2011 and expansive US economic policies are another factor that could
drive up the price of gold and silver to new record levels in nominal terms.
The pricing picture could change quickly, however, if US monetary policy
becomes less expansive and the central bank’s liquidity stimulating
measures are phased out.
• The rise in metal prices slowed in March, with nickel, zinc and copper
accounting for the largest decline, though from high levels. The slowdown in
Chinese commodity imports and production cutbacks in Japan following the
earthquake in March are contributing reasons, at the same time that
investment capital is turning to precious metals rather than economically
sensitive industrial metals due to increased inflation concerns.
Swedbank’s Total Commodity Price Index, USD
250
Total index Food
225
Total excl energy commodities
200
175
Index
150
125
100 Metals
75
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Source: Swedbank
I dessa två spalter klistras tabellerna in från Arabia is clearly having an impact on the global
Råvaruprisindex The political unrest in North commodity market. This is especially true of
Africa and the countries bordering Saudi the price of Brent oil, which at the time of
Economic Research Department. Swedbank AB. SE-105 34 Stockholm. Phone +46-8-5859 1000.
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.se www.swedbank.se
Legally responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson. +46-8-5859 7720.
Magnus Alvesson. +46-8-5859 3341. Jörgen Kennemar. +46-8-5859 7730.
2. Energy & Commodities
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 4 • 14 April 2011
writing was fluctuating around USD 120-125 crisis remains unresolved in several EMU
per barrel. On average, the price of oil in USD countries. A move by the EMU countries to
rose by 11.3% in March, which was one speed up monetary austerity at the same time
reason why energy accounted for the large that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve
part of the increase in Swedbank’s Total (Fed), puts off any rate hikes is contributing to
Commodity Price Index. In total, the index rose the weaker dollar. The risk of a further decline
by 7.2% in March compared with the previous in the dollar increases if expansive fiscal policy
month, reaching its highest level since August in the US continues at the same time that the
2008. The increase was 5.4% in euro and Fed waits to raise interest rates, while rates
5.7% in SEK. Concerns about future oil are expected to rise in Europe. This would
supplies have led to skyrocketing oil prices at push commodity prices – including oil – higher.
the same time that global demand is expected
to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day in 2011 after The other important energy commodity, coal,
last year's increase of 2.5 million barrels. In which rose substantially in price last year in
Japan, the world's second largest oil importer, connection with the major floods in Australia,
fossil fuel consumption will rise as long as the has trended slightly lower in recent months.
nuclear power problem persists, which could Against the backdrop of high oil prices and the
take several years. As a whole, this means that risk of supply disruptions, it is likely that coal
supply conditions in the oil market are prices will rise in the months ahead as demand
tightening, because of which oil inventories in for coal grows as a replacement for crude oil.
OECD countries will fall from today's relatively Coal is the most commonly used energy
high levels. resource in energy-intensive emerging
economies led by China and India. There is
Swedbank’s Commodity Price Index in various currencies also a clear connection between the prices of
160
oil and coal, where higher oil prices drives up
the price of coal. But since coal prices are
150
EUR negotiated between coal and steel producers
140
rather than set by daily listings on financial
130 markets, the substantial recent rise in oil prices
120
is not yet reflected in coal prices.
SEK
110
USD
100
90
Metal price increase slows
12
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1
2
3
The major increase in oil prices in March
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
m
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
09
10
10
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
contrasts with other commodities in
Swedbank’s Total Commodity Price Index.
Excluding energy, the index rose in USD by
As long as geopolitical uncertainty continues in 1.4% in March compared with February. This is
the Middle East, the prospects of a major the first time since June 2010 that the index
decline in oil prices are less likely, because of has fallen and the second month in a row in
which the risk that oil prices will average more SEK. The decline was driven by lower metal
than USD 105, as we forecast this year in our and food prices, though from high levels.
latest economic outlook, is high. This is also Among metals, nickel had the largest price
reflected in oil futures, which have risen in the decline, at 5.1% in USD, followed by zinc (-
past month from USD 112 dollar per barrel to 4.7%) and copper (-3.4%). Slightly lower metal
USD 118 for delivery in December 2011. Like prices have been followed by rising
many other commodities, oil is also affected by inventories, which raises the question of how
exchange rates and the fact that the dollar has much Chinese metal consumption will weaken
trended lower against the euro in 2011 – due to the economic austerity measures
despite that the US economy is experiencing a authorities there have taken to avoid an
faster growth rate while the sovereign debt overheating. In March copper inventories
reached their highest level since July 2010,
2 (6)
3. Energy & Commodities
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 4 • 14 April 2011
contrary to the market's expectations of a metal prices higher, not least aluminium, where
copper shortage, which probably drove up the energy consumption is high, accounting for
price to a record-high USD 10 000 per ton in slightly over one third of the total production
early February. Iron ore prices were largely cost. Since 2009 the covariation between
unchanged in March in Swedbank’s Total metal prices and oil has been clear. During the
Commodity Price Index in USD, but fell slightly first months of the year this pattern has
in SEK. In the short term iron ore prices are changed, however, as oil prices have risen
under pressure from reduced Japanese steel significantly faster than metal prices.
production in the wake of the disaster, at the
same time that the supply of Indian steel is
rising. When reconstruction in Japan begins,
however, demand for iron ore will increase, Inflation concerns are driving up the price
which should also drive up the prices of iron of gold
ore and steel. Investor interest in gold rose again in February
and March after a slight decline in January.
Metal and oil price trends in USD, Index
Geopolitical developments in the Middle East,
200
with the risk of persistently high oil prices and
175
higher future inflation, have driven up the price
150
of gold to new record levels in nominal terms.
125
At the time of writing, the price of gold is USD
Index
100
1 456 per ounce, an increase of slightly over
75
10% since the end of January. Gold has also
50
risen in SEK and euro, but is still lower than at
25
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 the start of the year.
Non-ferrous metals Crude oil, brent
Source: Reuters EcoWin
Price development for gold and silver in USD, Index
250
Index, 1 january
2010=100
225
The fact that copper prices again rose in April
200
when major producers predicted a lower
175
supply at the World Copper Conference in
Index
150
Santiago is a sign of the volatility affecting the
125
economically sensitive metals market, where
100
developments in China are of major
75
importance. Although Chinese commodity jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr
10 11
imports also rose substantially in March Gold Silver
Source: Reuters EcoWin
compared with the previous month, the annual
growth rate is slower, in line with the lower
GDP growth we predict for the Chinese
Despite the recovery, the price of gold has still
economy in the year ahead. We expect that
the increase in metal prices in USD, which risen considerably less than silver, which is
averaged slightly over 40% in 2010, will be increasingly regarded by investors as an
significantly lower this year (5-10%), when last alternative to gold. At the same time silver
year's global inventory build-up slows at the consumption in industrial production is growing
in everything from electronics to textiles. The
same time that economic policies are tightened
in emerging economies and the majority of 50% price rise in just two months should serve
OECD countries. Metal prices should also as a warning signal for a future silver bubble,
come under pressure from a growing however. High oil prices, rising inflation, the
investment inflow to precious metals (gold and sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe and
silver), especially industrial metals due to continued though modest monetary austerity
increased inflation concerns. Rising production suggest that gold and silver prices will remain
costs owing to the high price of oil are a high going forward. On the other hand, a US
counterbalance, however, which could push
3 (6)
4. Energy & Commodities
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 4 • 14 April 2011
interest rate hike significantly higher than rising purchasing power. According to a
1.50% in late 2012 and a considerably stronger forecast by the US Department of Agriculture
dollar could hold precious metal prices in (USDA), the increase in global agricultural
check in the longer term. production in 2011 is not expected to
sufficiently compensate for the inventory
Gold price trend in various currencies, 1 January 2010=100 drawdown last year. Higher oil prices also tend
145
1 January 2010=100
to drive up food prices owing to rising
140
135
EUR production costs. At the same time the
130 incentive to increase production of non-fossil
125
USD fuels such as ethanol rises in pace with oil
120
115
prices. Growing competition between food
110 production and fuel production tends to drive
105 SEK
up food prices, which was also what happened
100
95
in 2008, when oil prices reached record-high
jan feb mar apr maj jun
10
jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb
11
mar apr
Source: Reuters EcoWin
levels.
Grain prices and crude oil in USD
200
High food prices are taking a bite
175
The substantial price increase in food 150 Grains
commodities since June of last year was 125
Index
broken in March. The subindex fell by 3.1% in 100
USD compared with February, but still remains
75
at a significantly higher level than the same Price for Crude oil, Brent
50
period last year. Among grain products, wheat
fell the most in price, by nearly 9%, while corn 25
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
prices were relatively stable in March. Sugar Källa: Reuters EcoWin
and beverages also reported falling prices after
Jörgen Kennemar
a continuous increase since May of last year.
We expect food prices to trend higher in the
year ahead due to increased global growth and
4 (6)
5. Energy & Commodities
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Jörgen Kennemar No. 4 • 15 April 2011
Swedbank Commodity Index - US$ - Swedbank Commodity Index - SKr -
Basis 2000 = 1oo 15-04-11 Basis 2000 = 1oo 15-04-11
1.2011 2.2011 3.2011 1.2011 2.2011 3.2011
Total index 327,1 341,3 365,8 Total index 237,1 238,6 252,1
Per cent change month ago 4,1 4,4 7,2 Per cent change month ago 1,5 0,6 5,7
Per cent change year ago 25,5 35,8 38,3 Per cent change year ago 17,2 20,3 22,4
Total index exclusive energy 308,7 318,9 314,5 Total index exclusive energy 223,8 222,9 216,7
Per cent change month ago 5,5 3,3 -1,4 Per cent change month ago 2,8 -0,4 -2,8
Per cent change year ago 37,5 47,6 40,8 Per cent change year ago 28,4 30,7 24,7
Food, tropical beverages 302,5 317,6 307,9 Food, tropical beverages 219,3 222,0 212,2
Per cent change month ago 5,7 5,0 -3,1 Per cent change month ago 3,1 1,2 -4,4
Per cent change year ago 32,2 45,6 48,0 Per cent change year ago 23,5 29,0 31,0
Cereals 294,7 314,5 313,8 Cereals 213,7 219,8 216,2
Per cent change month ago 5,7 6,7 -0,2 Per cent change month ago 3,0 2,9 -1,6
Per cent change year ago 49,4 67,6 69,1 Per cent change year ago 39,5 48,4 49,7
Tropical beverages and tobacco 317,0 337,8 326,3 Tropical beverages and tobacco 229,8 236,1 224,9
Per cent change month ago 5,1 6,6 -3,4 Per cent change month ago 2,5 2,7 -4,8
Per cent change year ago 24,0 38,8 44,6 Per cent change year ago 15,8 23,0 28,1
Coffee 196,8 215,2 223,6 Coffee 142,7 150,4 154,1
Per cent change month ago 7,1 9,3 3,9 Per cent change month ago 4,4 5,4 2,4
Per cent change year ago 55,1 74,4 78,5 Per cent change year ago 44,9 54,5 58,0
Oilseeds and oil 276,4 276,1 264,1 Oilseeds and oil 200,4 193,0 182,0
Per cent change month ago 7,1 -0,1 -4,3 Per cent change month ago 4,5 -3,7 -5,7
Per cent change year ago 44,4 50,2 42,8 Per cent change year ago 34,9 33,0 26,5
Industrial raw materials 310,5 319,3 316,4 Industrial raw materials 225,1 223,2 218,0
Per cent change month ago 5,4 2,8 -0,9 Per cent change month ago 2,8 -0,9 -2,3
Per cent change year ago 39,0 48,2 39,0 Per cent change year ago 29,9 31,2 23,0
Agricultural raw materials 200,8 207,0 202,9 Agricultural raw materials 145,6 144,7 139,8
Per cent change month ago 3,9 3,1 -2,0 Per cent change month ago 1,4 -0,6 -3,4
Per cent change year ago 26,5 31,3 23,5 Per cent change year ago 18,2 16,3 9,4
Cotton 151,6 185,8 201,0 Cotton 109,9 129,9 138,5
Per cent change month ago 7,7 22,6 8,2 Per cent change month ago 5,0 18,1 6,7
Per cent change year ago 110,8 149,4 147,2 Per cent change year ago 97,0 120,9 118,9
Softwood 144,2 144,6 146,8 Softwood 104,5 101,1 101,2
Per cent change month ago -0,3 0,3 1,5 Per cent change month ago -2,8 -3,3 0,1
Per cent change year ago 4,0 6,0 4,3 Per cent change year ago -2,8 -6,1 -7,7
Woodpulp 949,0 949,1 964,6 Woodpulp 688,0 663,3 664,7
Per cent change month ago -0,1 0,0 1,6 Per cent change month ago -2,6 -3,6 0,2
Per cent change year ago 16,5 13,0 9,9 Per cent change year ago 8,9 0,0 -2,7
Non-ferrous metals 288,3 300,3 296,4 Non-ferrous metals 209,0 209,9 204,3
Per cent change month ago 4,6 4,2 -1,3 Per cent change month ago 2,0 0,4 -2,7
Per cent change year ago 21,6 36,7 23,6 Per cent change year ago 13,6 21,1 9,4
Copper 9563,7 9867,2 9530,1 Copper 6933,7 6896,3 6567,5
Per cent change month ago 4,7 3,2 -3,4 Per cent change month ago 2,1 -0,5 -4,8
Per cent change year ago 29,5 44,4 27,7 Per cent change year ago 21,0 27,9 13,1
Aluminium 2440,2 2507,8 2552,2 Aluminium 1769,1 1752,7 1758,8
Per cent change month ago 4,0 2,8 1,8 Per cent change month ago 1,4 -0,9 0,3
Per cent change year ago 9,1 22,7 15,7 Per cent change year ago 1,9 8,7 2,5
Lead 2600,2 2586,2 2623,3 Lead 1885,1 1807,5 1807,8
Per cent change month ago 8,1 -0,5 1,4 Per cent change month ago 5,4 -4,1 0,0
Per cent change year ago 9,8 21,3 20,8 Per cent change year ago 2,6 7,5 7,0
Zinc 2373,9 2464,7 2348,9 Zinc 1721,1 1722,6 1618,7
Per cent change month ago 4,5 3,8 -4,7 Per cent change month ago 1,9 0,1 -6,0
Per cent change year ago -2,5 14,4 3,3 Per cent change year ago -8,9 1,3 -8,6
Nickel 25609,4 28250,1 26807,4 Nickel 18566,8 19744,4 18473,8
Per cent change month ago 6,5 10,3 -5,1 Per cent change month ago 3,8 6,3 -6,4
Per cent change year ago 38,9 49,7 19,4 Per cent change year ago 29,8 32,6 5,7
Iron ore, steel scrap 653,3 660,0 662,8 Iron ore, steel scrap 473,6 461,3 456,8
Per cent change month ago 7,6 1,0 0,4 Per cent change month ago 5,0 -2,6 -1,0
Per cent change year ago 86,6 87,8 86,4 Per cent change year ago 74,3 66,3 65,1
Energy raw materials 335,2 351,3 388,6 Energy raw materials 243,0 245,5 267,8
Per cent change month ago 3,5 4,8 10,6 Per cent change month ago 1,0 1,0 9,1
Per cent change year ago 21,2 31,6 37,3 Per cent change year ago 13,2 16,6 21,6
Coking coal 490,5 479,3 478,9 Coking coal 355,6 335,0 330,0
Per cent change month ago 7,9 -2,3 -0,1 Per cent change month ago 5,2 -5,8 -1,5
Per cent change year ago 34,2 37,8 36,0 Per cent change year ago 25,4 22,0 20,4
Crude oil 328,1 345,4 384,5 Crude oil 237,9 241,4 265,0
Per cent change month ago 3,2 5,3 11,3 Per cent change month ago 0,7 1,5 9,8
Per cent change year ago 20,4 31,2 37,4 Per cent change year ago 12,5 16,2 21,7
Source : SWEDBANK and HWWA-Institute for Economic Research Hamburg Source : SWEDBANK and HWWA-Institute for Economic Research Hamburg
Swedbank
Economic Research Department Swedbank’s monthly Energy & Commodities newsletter is published as a service to our
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SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden of the analyses reported in this publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or
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Cecilia Hermansson, +46-88-5859 7720 monthly Energy & Commodities newsletter.
Magnus Alvesson, +46-8-5859 3341
Jörgen Kennemar, +46-8-5859 7730
Economic Research Department. Swedbank AB. SE-105 34 Stockholm. Phone +46-8-5859 1000.
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.se www.swedbank.se
Legally responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson. +46-8-5859 7720.
Magnus Alvesson. +46-8-5859 3341. Jörgen Kennemar. +46-8-5859 7730.